Bitcoin: HODL Waves

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be putting back on our onchain analysis Hat and discussing the hotle waves or Hodal waves if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and check out The sale on into the cryptoverse premium At intothe cryptoverse tocom the hotle Waves uh are bands that reflect what Percentage of the supply has been unused In a transaction for a certain period of Time one of the things that I like to do Is to is I mean it's hard to see what's Going on here but what I like to do is Isolate short-term holders versus Long-term holders one interesting thing About this when you look at long-term Holders what you'll notice is that Long-term holders really only start to Durably sell once Bitcoin has broken an All-time high okay so if you look at Last cycle you can see that the the Hotle waves for long-term holders which Is in this case anyone who has held Bitcoin for at least 6 months um that is Where it started to go down right so so When you hit new highs that's where Long-term holders really start to sell They sell into those new all-time highs You can see that it occurred in you know 2020 2021 it occurred in 2017 and then a Couple of times over here in 2013 and in

2011 and so on and so forth so when we Hit new highs long-term holders tend to Sell into that and you can see that it's Typically separated by several years uh 2021 um you know 2017 28 late you know Late 2017 and then before that it was 2013 right so it does seem to be about Every four years or so when we hit those New all-time highs where the long-term Holders tend to sell into that and that Year tends to be the the PO having year Right so we're in the preh having year Now the having year of course is next Year and then the post having year will Be 2025 and that's where long-term Holders tend to sell the most because That's usually when Bitcoin is hitting Is hitting those all-time highs if you Look at other examples right there's 2015 there's 2019 you can see that Long-term holders did not really sell Into it and that's despite the fact that That Bitcoin you know had a a fairly Significant selloff right in 2019 Bitcoin sold off you know like 50% from You know basically from June until the End of the year and then it up and then It sold off another like 60% into the Pandemic but long-term holders did not Really sell that at all I mean of course A little bit right I mean if you if you Really zoom in here you know going into The 2019 Peak I mean like there were Some people selling into that but not

Very noticeable right not a noticeable Drop Like 2021 and in and in 2017 and 2013 so on and so forth and in the same Way right like in 2015 long-term holders Were not really selling into these pumps Very much so again what it what it Really goes to show is that you have Your you know you have your your your Bare Market year where the price Basically just goes down you have 2014 2018 2022 then you have your prehab year Where the market is a lot Choppier arguably this prehab year has You know has been more green than prior Pre prehab years in terms of time spent Going out Not in terms of how much we went up at Least not so far I mean in 2019 Bitcoin Went up you know more than 3x or so from Its yearly open and right now Bitcoin is Is just over you know it's it's a little Over 2x off its yearly open I believe The yearly open was around like 16.6k so it's somewhere between a 2 to 3x off off the yearly open but again I Mean despite that you'll notice that Long-term holders are not really selling Into that um a whole lot which is very Similar to 229 and very similar to 2015 And even when even when price went down In 2015 and in 2019 uh long-term holders the hotle Waves just continue to go up now if you

Look at short-term Holders it tells a very different story What's interesting about short-term Holders is that they tend to go up the The short-term hotle waves tend to go up Into those all-time highs right so you Can see it topped in 2021 and in 2017 and in you know 2013 right that's where that top Occurred and then we had another top Here and you know just after the second High and so on and so forth so what What's really interesting is is despite This move by Bitcoin there hasn't really Been an increase in the hot waves for Short-term holders so it just goes back To this idea that you you know you have These long accumulation windows from you Know near the end of the the bare Market Year all the way out until you know well After the having for long-term holders That they sort of buy Bitcoin they don't Tend to sell it until Bitcoin breaks All-time highs and then you know the Speculators the tourists don't tend to Show up until until you actually get to All-time Highs right and then and then short-term Holders really Pile in and then the Long-term holders basically sell to to The people that are only coming in once Bitcoin breaks all time highs so I think It's a useful a useful chart to look at Because you can see that despite all the

Increase in price over here the the Hotle waves for short-term holders have Just continued go to go down um and it's Very similar to 2019 right like you can See in 2019 short-term holder short-term Um holders hotle waves just went down Right like it it it it went down even Throughout the entire 2019 rout I mean It went up a little bit right but the General direction was down and the General direction was down despite the Fact that Bitcoin went up you know 4X And then it dropped 60 70% short-term Hotle wave still went down and it did Not go up in a in a durable way until we Reached all-time highs so thus your Hotle waves for Bitcoin if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up And again check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse doccom where you can of Course get access to charts like this Thank you guys for tuning in and I'll See you next time bye


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