The health of the network is uh almost As good as it gets and it seems like This is a bull market famed investor Kathy Wood CEO of Ark invest just went On CNBC this morning and confirmed a few Things this is a global if it anyone Owning Bitcoin knows this is global this Is not just a US opportunity and it's Big and you know if you look at if you Look at uh both ether and Bitcoin Our um expectation is well that the Crypto asset ecosystem will be dominated By those two and that it is going to Scale from a little more than a trillion Dollars today to$ 25 trillion uh in 2030 Uh as this new world builds out this is Almost I mean I was at the beginning of The internet not really that was DARPA And everything but as we were studying It in the market in the in the '90s this Feels like that again and what she says Next will shock you the reason we have Focused as much on ether ethereum as we Have is we think but if you hold crypto Important the 8-day window for the Approval of 12 Bitcoin spot ETFs is Closing soon Kathy Wood owns one of them If you look at the pecking order our Filing is next in line no I know you're You're on the list this will lead to Huge demand for actual Bitcoin in the Space meaning these funds will be forced To buy Bitcoin But if they aren't accepted within the
Next 4 days then we may have to wait Until January 2024 can we talk about Spot Bitcoin though uh when what is the Current timeline I know that you and Some others have been tweeting about Windows apparently we're in one of them In terms of one we could see the 19 b4s Approved what's going on yeah so there's A four you've got to walk us through That kind of jargon first yeah 19 B4 is Basically it's a you file for a rule Change proposal to and in this case the Rule change proposal is to list Bitcoin Bitcoin ETF spot Bitcoin ETFs uh and so There's all these deadlines and clocks But all you really need to know is right Now there's a window there's 12 Different spot Bitcoin ETF applications Right now out there there's a window Right now where there's no comment Period there's nothing this he has to do In all of them so theoretically if they Really wanted they could approve all of Them at once we also don't like we're Not as tied up on that window yes that's Possible but also like I said there's 12 Filings nine of them it doesn't matter Anytime from now to January 10th they Can be approved and theoretically list At some point Point within that time Range there's two processes that need to Go on here there needs to be an S1 Approval and a 19 B4 approval 19 B4 is The one that everyone's been watching
The one we've been watching closely and The one that's we think is going to Happen by January so looking at the Bitcoin price since the start of the Year start of 2023 Bitcoin has been Rallying into the expectation of an Approval is this all just hype or is There some clear substance some change In the SEC where they would approve and The question is actually at 36 uh, Do you think that the move that we've Seen in Bitcoin over the last I don't Know what two months now how much of That is a function of sort of a pent up Demand or an anticipation that the SEC Because folks like Black Rock and Fidelity and you and others have made These applications have the sense that It's it's more likely to happen now than It was a year or two ago yeah I and is That misguided is that realistic what is That I think what has happened the Change Is that the SEC actually asked us Questions I think asked us questions Asked Black Rock probably has asked a Lot uh whereas before our filings were Just rejected out of hand okay so that Is movement that is significant and you Know over the years I've gotten to know The research people at uh at the SEC and Um I'm very impressed and I was Impressed by the questions they asked us Too so uh what were the kinds of
Questions they asked A lot of them were very technical They're all about protecting the Consumer and now we may have that Clarity why the head of the SEC Gary Gensler who is handpicked back in the Day by Elizabeth Warren why even though Gary Gensler clearly understands the Technology behind Bitcoin extremely well Why she believes he may be holding the Spot Bitcoin ETF hostage he taught at MIT about so he understands that it's Not a Ponzi scheme or Beanie Baby so There has to be something else well I I Don't know what it is I have wondered There's speculation that he's interested In the treasury secretary position at Some point what does the treasury secret Fiat from the Government very focus on I don't know And while we will talk about traditional Markets as well as the latest CPI Inflation data which just came out today Let's just be very clear is this a case Of buy the rumor then maybe sell the new News how much do you account for the Move in Bitcoin as as speculation on an ETF being approved and is it a buy the Rumor sell the news kind of situation or Is it just a straight shot if in fact That were to come to be I am sure there Is some anticipation and there could Even be a sell on the news but the Fundamentals we put out a Bitcoin
Monthly piece every month and you can See the health of the network using our Onchain metrics the health of the Network is uh almost as good as it gets And it seems like this is a bull market Sure we'll have puts and takes nothing Goes straight up uh but I think this Flight to Quality um Larry thinkink uh Used that expression we call it flight To safety you look at what happened During the Regional Bank crisis Bitcoin Went from 19,000 to nearly 30,000 as the the K the bank uh the Regional Banks stock index was imploding If you look at the bank uh stock index Today it is back down close to where it Was in March now the latest results for Inflation are in headline CPI came in at 3.2% lower than expectations and core CPI came in at 4% again lower than Expectations this is bullish meaning you Can see the effects of the FED starting To take hold maybe disinflation is now More likely than hyper inflation and now That we know that this was better than Expectations maybe that means now the FED can lighten up even more on Suppressing markets notice what fun Strat Global advisor managing partner Tom Lee said yesterday so this was a day Before the results he'll talk about how The S&P this is the month chart on the S&P rallied into this news meaning the Market expected favorable results and if
The results would have been higher more Heated what would that mean or lower Less heated close closer to what we got What does that mean Brian you might be Surprised but I think institutional Investors and Retail have been fighting This rally um you can see it in the put Call R yes the put call ratio today hit 1.26 that's an extremely elevated Reading it's been rising the last two Weeks and if you look since the October 27th rally every time an intraday 1.2 is Or higher has been hit we've ried hard The next day so I think into this print If it's a little hot I think people end Up having to buy this dip because hedge Funds have been shorting this rally I Know sentiment negative but I actually Think the probability's favor a slightly Softer reading the skew is for a hot Reading and I think we could get Something that could feel like a Face Ripper like we had in July so there's a Possibility of of quite a positive move Tomorrow if it's a soft Reading so basically markets are likely To go up if it's hot and markets are Likely to go up a lot more if it's cold That's right core CPI year-over-year Anything under 4.2 is bullish for him so You're looking at it the month over Month not the year-over-year that I Referenced yes but the year-over-year Matters so on the core it's still 42
Year-over year so something below 42 Would be considered a soft side Face Ripper possibly Face Ripper if you're Invested in cryptocurrency make sure you Subscribe we drop one video per day Keeping you informed people are worried About a hard landing and INF bearish for 20 years Tom that's exactly the point Which is funny cuz everybody knock CNBC They're always like you guys are always Pumping the market it's like everybody I Know is bearish constantly you know what I mean that's right I think and wrong Correct I think people forget that Stocks tend to surprise us against what Consensus is thinking and I would say Put call doesn't lie crime brokage Positioning doesn't lie the CTA chart Shows the constellation of data shows People are still net short not a Believer in a seasonal year-end rally That's a non-consensus view like always See you tomorrow
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