Bitcoin: Death Cross

Hey everyone and thanks for dripping Back into the cryptiverse today we're Going to talk about Bitcoin and we're Going to be discussing the upcoming Death cross if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out the sale on into the Cryptographers premium at into the I do understand that the Title death cross is a bit Sensationalist and I do sometimes think Maybe we should use a different word for It but that is what people talk that's What people discuss it as and so we will Continue to go with the nomenclature That they use I do want you to be aware Though that while it sounds bad at death Cross and a golden cross sounds really Good oftentimes not every time but Oftentimes what happens in the short Term is the reverse of what everyone's Expecting but as you fast forward a few More weeks the larger Trend continues to To take hold so if you're unfamiliar With what a golden cross and a death Cross is a golden cross is when a Shorter term moving average crosses Above a longer term moving average such As the 50-day SMA Crossing above the 200-day SMA like we saw back over here In early 2023 A death cross is when a shorter true Moving average crosses below a longer

Term moving average such as what we are Likely going to see here within the next Week or so but again what is interesting Is how oftentimes but not every time the Price action will do the reverse of sort Of what the name implies in the short Term but the overall trend tends to Remain intact okay so let's break this Down so you can so you can see what I Mean Back in February Bitcoin got a golden Cross but from the point that we hit That Golden Cross on February 6 or so You can see that Bitcoin actually Dropped about eight percent okay so what It shows you is that in the Golden Cross We actually first got a move lower Before the trend to the upside continued Okay So you first had to move lower and then We went up If you were to go back to 2019 you'll Actually see very similar price action Okay first look at this Golden Cross What do you notice by this Golden Cross Bitcoin in 2019 dropped about 13 After the Golden Cross and then on the First death cross that came after this Golden Cross you will see that Bitcoin Actually pumped into the death cross Right so there's a death cross here in October of 2019 but really on the day That the death cross occurred Bitcoin Went up a lot I mean back then it went

Up over 16 percent And it and it was still just a lower High though so what we saw back then was We saw a dump just before the death Cross a pump on the day of the death Cross and maybe a couple days later only It's for it to fade back down and put in A new low a few weeks later So sort of recap here What we historically see and again I'm Sick which is why my voice might sound a Little different but the markets don't Sleep when you get a golden cross you'll Often see the price drop and then go up And when you get a death cross you'll Often see the price go up and then drop So in both cases you see the reverse Price action in the short term as to What the name implies but on a longer Time frame like a weekly time frame like Several weeks say three to four weeks The overall trend tends to remain intact And we've seen that play out time and Time again now there are examples where It doesn't necessarily play out right if You were to go back through all of History there is there are examples Where you get a golden cross and the Price does not immediately go down or You get a death cross and the price does Not immediately go up it's just that we Have often seen this and you know maybe One example Is you know during the pandemic in fact

Um here we had a a golden cross right we Had a golden cross and what happened With this Golden Cross is actually price Kind of went up a little bit came back Down and then it dumped down into a Recession so there are always going to Be exceptions to the rule just because We typically see a pump into a death Cross and a dump into a golden cross Followed by a continuation of the trend That does not mean that it always has to Play out like that although there are Plenty of examples of it okay even here In 2020 when we got a golden cross you Can see that price dropped before then Going back up and going on a parabolic Bull run So I do want you to be aware that while It is a sensationalist name death cross Historically you pump into it like on The day of the death Cross or maybe a Day before you pump into it if you were To really break this down to look at This price action for Bitcoin back in 2019 it's actually still eerily similar You had a relatively lackluster price Movement for several weeks followed by a Daily close well below The prior daily closes right so this Daily close here Was about five to six percent below These other daily closes and Bitcoin was Operating in a pretty tight range over Here right you can see the Bitcoin got

Below that 50-day moving average it then Kept holding resistance on it and when We Wicked up here in mid-october You can see that we came off the 50-day SMA Now if you were to fast forward to today And see what's going on you'll see very Similar price action right Bitcoin Below the 50 day Wicks up to the 50-day Only to come back down But we are also going into that death Cross just like we were In 2019. so sort of raises the question Is it going to repeat what it did back Over here in 2019 where you do get those Daily closes a few percent below the Prior daily closes only to then Wick up Into The death cross But if that happens Which there's no guarantee that it does But if it does happen then the Expectation would still be for it to Just be another lower high and for the Trend to still remain down likely for The rest of the year One thing to remember is that in 2019 Once we got below the 100-day moving Average you know after you know after we Fell below that bull market support Bend Right so after Bitcoin fell below the 20-week SMA and sustained it we never Had daily closes back above the 100-day Moving average you can see that we

Wicked above the 100 day On that move Into the death cross Bitcoin Wicked Above the 100-day moving average But we did not actually get any daily Closes above the 100-day moving average And the general trend of Bitcoin still Remained down basically for the rest of The year So today the 100-day moving average for Those who are curious Currently sits at around 28 385. if we Were to follow the path of 2019 then it Would still seem likely to sort of see a You know some type of a sell-off into a Death cross uh you know or at least Maybe a week before which would be Around now but only for it to pump up Into the death cross if that makes sense Right so you know you could see Something like you know like this where It falls down it takes out maybe it Takes out this prior low and then pumps Up if you're to go back to 2019 again What you'll notice about about this low Here that is is sort of worthwhile is That it took out the prior low that was Why it was important okay we talked About this before as well What happens is that today everyone's Looking at Bitcoin and we're saying oh It's a higher low we're all good right I Mean ethereum is already screaming it's A lower low but we haven't seen that

Lower low on bitcoin just yet Right that low would be we would need to Go below 24 7. Below 24 7 for it to be a lower low In 2019 what happened In 2019 what happened We went just above this low here Right just about it After the after we closed below the bull Market support ban right We went just Above it we Consolidated there we Wicked Up near the 20 we got 21 week EMA came Back down only to put in a slightly Lower low Right it was a slightly lower low Now what happens I suppose when you put In a slightly lower low Is that everyone who previously said Well technically this is a higher low All those people say all right the trend Is gone and then they sell their Bitcoin Is what I'm guessing often happens right They say all right it's a lower low Um the trend is down and then right After these people sell Upon the new lower low You then Wick back up To the bull market support pan here you Can see we actually went slightly above It but we did not get any daily closes Above it we did not get any weekly Closes above it so you know if if price Action still follows a similar pattern

You you should at least be aware of that Of that playing out like that so the way That it would play out If it's going to repeat it right would Be to to sort of see Um if we were to draw a a path let's see If I can find it here Um It's been a while since I've maybe it's Under this one I think they they move some stuff around And so it's harder to find Um Some of the stuff as it previously was But anyways the the general idea is is To just draw a a path right I can't I Can't find it right now Um The general idea that would be if it if It were to fade here put in a slightly Lower low Right Maybe below 24 7 24 8 maybe it goes down to 24 5 or 24 6. And then it's a new low right and then Perhaps from there we get it you know we Get another move back up and then we Fade back down and then by the end of The month or something or maybe early October we you know we go decisively set A new low that would be if it plays out Like it did in 2019 right there's no Guarantees that it will right I just

Want you to be aware that oftentimes in A death cross which is what is is we're About to knock on the door of Oftentimes with the death cross you you The the bad price action already Occurred to cause the death cross so That when the death cross comes everyone Sells into it only for it to then you Know price to then pump into it okay so Hopefully we've done a decent job of Showing you know prior history and and Showing how oftentimes Bitcoin it can First sell off get everyone scared then Pump up into a death cross only for the Overall trend to remain intact right so Yes in 2019 we got a pump but it was Still a lower high right it was still a Lower high That was a lower high and then we came Back down and put in a new low but this Lower high Did not occur until after we took out This prior low over here So I would still look for that as a Potential outcome here Um you know maybe selling off below 24 7. Only for it to scare people right before The death cross then pump up into the Death cross then sell off into a more Sustained lower low uh by the end of September or or October just a potential Outcome that I think people should be Aware of if we were to just update where

We are with the bull market support ban The 20-week SMA now is at 28 000 111 the 21 week EMA is at 27 341. so if there is Another push to the upside in the coming Weeks you know the expectation would be That while you could always Wick above It Um there's a good chance that this will Provide resistance for the remainder of The Year this bull Mark scorpion so I Would not expect to see Bitcoin getting You know multiple weekly closes back Above 28 000 Um if you do see that then it would Likely be some type of invalidation Based on what we've what we've been been Expecting and that being about how we Spent half the year going up and half The year going down but do just be aware That you can sort of see these sell-offs Uh followed by a pump into a death cross Only to then sell off again to a new low And if it did do that it would more or Less be par for the course rather than That rather than taking anyone by Surprise okay so just some some history There on on the death cross and while we Are likely going to get to the death we Are likely going to see a death cross There are no guarantees if Bitcoin were To pump now aggressively then you know It's possible that a death cross is Avoided but you know at this rate as Long as price action remains you know

Sort of continues on the status quo just Sort of extending out I mean again it's Not perfect right but you know if you Just sort of extend out the 200-day SMA And the 50-day SMA there we would we Would be expecting a death cross Probably you know within a week or so Okay so maybe by mid next week we would Get some type of a death cross Um so if it were to follow 2019 it would Mean first you know perhaps Well first I mean if you follow 2019 it It would be like you know go slightly up Then go down put in a new local low then Pump into the death cross then fade then Drop into a new low right that's if it Were to follow 2019 regardless of Whether it pumps under the death Cross Or not I think it's irrelevant I do Think that Bitcoin will spend the the Rest of the year uh mostly in a Downtrend and while there likely will be Some pumps back up just to get people to YOLO back in just like there were in 2019 just remember that it is likely to Be another lower high it's sort of like The ether Bitcoin valuation right how How you know a lot of people have have Looked at that and they say that it's You know it's it's held up well and and You know while that might be the case There still is this kind of this harsh Reality of it's just putting in a series Of lower highs right

So we might see something like that play Out for Bitcoin as well where everyone Gets excited on every single pump but it Just ends up being you know another Lower one lower high after another I Wouldn't be surprised at all if Bitcoin Did something like that where it you Know it kept pumping back up just to put It in a lower high so just be on the Lookout for something like that Um if we don't get a pump into into the Daily death cross right so if if we come Down here and then we move back up And we don't actually get a pump into a Death cross and then we just kind of Faded down immediately which is still a Good chance that something like that Could happen it could be caused due to Recession fears getting pulled forward Okay which might happen with oil Rallying in the dollar rallying so do be Aware that that is also a potential Outcome where you you sort of get a pump Into a death cross but it's not what Anyone not what a lot of people would Want and then it just Fades immediately Um rather than Rather than being a more significant Lower high so my expectation in the Coming weeks is that Bitcoin will hit 23k I don't know exactly when it's going To occur Um in fact if if we were to pump into a Death cross you might even see it get

Close only to fake out and then go down Right I will say you know I don't trade this Stuff right you know if if we don't if We don't get a if we don't get a a dump Or a pump and I don't I don't really Trade this stuff I don't really care I'm Just trying to provide insight into what You know theoretically might happen Based on historical results that's it Nothing more nothing less Um it's not Financial advice it's just Based on on my own experiences and and Hopefully my own experiences of Prior Prehabbing years have kept some people From from getting wrecked especially in The altcoin market right half up half Down it's likely what's going to happen For Bitcoin this year and if it did do That It would not be surprising you know it Would not be surprising at all because That's what it's always done That's what it's always done in Prehabbing years is half up half down And every pre-halving year people say This time is going to be different we're Going to have you know a peak that's That's shifted uh much earlier in time And then and then it doesn't happen and Then about halfway through the year Bitcoin rolls over in Q3 of the Pre-halving year in August or September Thanks to a seasonal correction in the s

P and it kicks into a downtrend but for Some reason every cycle every four years Every pre-halving year people say this Time is different And it ends up not being different okay So just be careful with that mentality Historically you know history shows this Time's likely not going to be different And and whatever pumps come our way for The rest of the year are likely going to Be lower highs now it is possible to Take out this high Right it is possible to take out this High but I would not I would not expect Us to take out to take out this one okay So I would not I I think this is a high This is a lower high this might be sort Of an intermediate High sort of like how This one was Um I don't you know while I could go Back up I don't think that we will take Out this high so I don't think it'll go You know to 31k or something right I Don't think it's going to go to 31k That's my guess anyways we'll wrap it up And by the way if it goes to 31k so be It right I don't know it is what it is Anyways we'll wrap it up there thank you Guys for tuning in subscribe if you're Not subscribed give the video a thumbs Up and check out the sale on into the Crypto versus premium at into the we'll see you next time Bye


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