“They Have No Chance” – Quantitative Expert Predicts Altcoins are Doomed (& MORE!)

The question is is well how does that Affect me right how does that affect my Portfolio how do you how do you make Money on on on knowing where the Bitcoin Dominance is going to go today I sit Down with Quant analyst Benjamin Cowan To discuss the real way you can make Money with crypto and I think the answer Lies with ethereum we discuss Bitcoin Solana cardano and best time to buy so This shows Roi after latest cycle Peak That is likely where the altcoin market Finally bottoms out so hit the like Button send this video to a friend and Let's start do you want to start with Bitcoin dominance yeah I I'm I'm Obviously a very big bull on on bitcoin Dominance and and one of the reasons Actually and going back to something That we were talking about earlier we Were talking about interest rates and The yield curve um you know in the other In the other video but what you'll Notice last cycle is dominance Bitcoin Dominance did not top out until September of 2019 now a lot of people Have said well does that mean the Bitcoin dominance has already topped out Because we're already past September of 2023 there's a chance I think what's More important I think it'll continue to Go up so I do think Bitcoin dominance Will take out these highs here and Continue to go up and the reason I think

That is because if we were to Overlay Interest rates so I want to just overlay Us interest Rates one of the reasons why I think Dominance topped out here wasn't just Because it was a magical point in the Cycle it was because interest rates were Starting to go back down meaning we were Going to looser monetary policy right We're going to looser monetary policy Interest rates are going back down Therefore riskier assets like altcoins Could start to keep up with the with With Bitcoin but it wasn't until we saw Looser monetary policy here we still Haven't reached the point of lowering Interest rates and so I think that Dominance will continue to go up and I Think that because liquidity is being Drained if you were to look at total Three this is the altcoin market my my Argument is that it tracks net liquidity Very very well net liquidity as I'm Defining it here is basically the Balance sheet of the central banks of You know so the fed the the ECB Canada The UK China Japan Australia New Zealand And and we subtract out the TGA and the Reverse repo but when you add all that Stuff up and of course we're converting The balance sheets of these central Banks to dollars so when the dxy is Going up that means the net liquidity is Normally going down because the

Purchasing power of these central banks Or you know the conversion from their Local currency to USD is becoming less Favorable for them if you overlay net Liquidity over the altcoin market you Can see that it tracks it pretty well Right like it it tracks it pretty well Um and the issue is that net liquidity Is still going down right not liquidity Is still going down and so My worry is That the altcoin market still has a leg Lower to go right and again like it Doesn't mean that it has to happen I Know a lot of people are really hoping It doesn't happen so they can go dunk on Me which is is which is fine like it Comes with a territory right um but this Is this is something that I think we Should consider and I I think one of the Reasons why it it we that I like to Focus on bitcoin dominance so much is Because my perspective on the altcoin Well first of all I do think it will go Down but the other perspective that I Have that's more important is if the Altcoin market doesn't go down it's only Because Bitcoin showed a lot of strength First right so like if Bitcoin were to Get a significant rally then yes that Would likely raise the altcoin market up But Bitcoin went there first right so Then for me my entire you know most of My crypto portfolio for the last 18 Months has just been Bitcoin like I do

Have some crypto and it's mostly just Been Bitcoin because I expect the Dominance to go up and this pattern by The way is actually a very similar Pattern that we saw with Bitcoin last Cycle right we saw these lower highs and We also saw these higher lows right Where you know and and again like maybe I could just very very briefly pull it Up just so the audience can see um so And again it doesn't have to play out The same way I I I have to repeat myself On that because it you know we we we Should expect some types of of Deviations when looking at this stuff It's not like it's always going to play Out um in the same manner but you know Bitcoin had a very similar pattern right Where it was putting in these lower Highs it was also putting in these Higher lows and you can kind of see the Similarities right where this first Arrow that's your first sort of your low You then come up here and tag the top The bottom the top right and then you And then ultimately we broke down right And then you go look at total three and It kind of seems like it's doing Something similar right this is your First that low you tag the top you tag The bottom you go back up to the top you Go back down to the bottom and you go Back up to the top and then now the the Question is does It ultimately break

Down and the better way to look at this Is to look at total three minus usdt Divided by Bitcoin because it gives us An idea of how the altcoin market is Doing with respect to bitcoin and if you Do that this is the chart that you get And the last time I came on your channel I believe this metric was probably at Like 47 or 48% I don't remember exactly Now it's down at 45% so it has been Moving back down and the argument is That the altcoin market tops out when The market cap reaches parody with Bitcoin so you can see this ratio over Here is one right so it tops out when The altcoin market reaches parody with Bitcoin and it bottoms out around 25% Right now it's at 45% it's also riding That 20we ese down like look at look at The 20we ese here and and look at total Three minus usct divided by Bitcoin it Can't it can't get above it in any Sustained way right like it keeps trying And trying and trying and it just keeps Getting rejected and again the reason I Think it's getting rejected is just Because there's not enough liquidity you Might see one altcoin pop off right you Might see a aan or salana or cardano Catch a bid on any given day but a lot Of what we've seen is more so it has Been more so a rotation of capital just From one one thing to another rather Than a lot of new money coming into the

Space so you know if you if the altcoin Market did break down like Bitcoin did Last cycle then that could lead you know To altcoins getting this Reckoning Against Bitcoin and and I mean it could Be Bitcoin going down and altcoins going Down more and you and I both know Because we both experienced it before That is the most brutal part of the Cycle when when Bitcoin goes down and The altcoin market goes down more 100% And also the time of waiting and you Think you think you're finally on the Next leg up and then it's just brutal That we take that leg down Benjamin what Are the strongest altcoins and I don't Necessarily mean the ones that have Pumped this year unless that is the Definition of strength in the future Like I know chain link has done well Recently xrp rallied into the decision Um like are there any altcoins Separating themselves from the pack like In the look towards 2024 so we can take a look at some of Them so here's here's chain link um let Me switch this over to a log scale so You know there has been a bit of a Movement here recently with chain link But I I still want to see kind of how it Handles this because if Bitcoin does Sort of top out around like 28 to 30k or Something and it rolls over how will Link perform this is the link Bitcoin

Chart right and you know we've it's Tried to break out for a long time right It's it's been trying and and so it is Interesting I just I I think it's Worthwhile to see kind of how does it Hold up if Bitcoin shows weakness and we Haven't really seen that yet we don't Really know what's going to happen so I'm still looking at it the other thing Is if you look at link USD um you know one of the things we'll Note is that it hasn't really taken this Subtle out right so it has been putting In lower highs here and so I'm also you Know watching that as a potential Trend As well and you know I'm curious if it If it will break out I mean this has Been a long window where it's just gone Sideways so I mean I don't link is not It has not been the one any it has not Been one of the ones that has Outperformed Recently maybe if the definition of Recently is the last month then yes it Has right but if the definition of Recently is is you know since mid 2022 It's basically just been stuck maybe the Fact that it hasn't gone down more since May of 2022 is maybe the bigger the Bigger news piece uh so maybe that could Be argued as as showing some signs of of Resilience um there's there's been some Other ones that have been talked about a Lot I think salana xrp uh salana is is

An interesting one to look at because if We go take a look at this Chart this is this so this shows Roi After latest cycle Peak and we're going To look at you know various coins right And what I want to do is because there's Going to be a lot on here so let me just Isolate a few of them so we can see What's going on this is what salana Looks like right so if I can find it on Here this is what salana looks like as Measured from the peak as measured from The peak current Roi is is is down about 91% from the Peak what's interesting is it took a Very different path to get to where it Is today Ada and salana are both Essentially at the same draw down from The peak right so if you measure the Returns of salana from the beginning of 20 23 Solana has outperformed Ada Significantly that's an undeniable fact Right but it's also an undeniable fact That one of the reasons that salana has Outperformed Ada since the beginning of The year is because it got wrecked a lot Harder at the end of last year so Arguably this move by salana is more so Just mean reversion right back to Whatever the general trend for the Altcoin market is and we can look at a Lot of the layer ones right like look at Um polka dot it's right there with that Same group right look at at um at

Avalanche they're all right there Together right so what this tells me is That there's all there's all sorts of Narratives about you know all these Altcoins and whatnot and and the Communities and all this stuff but this Shows me that that stuff doesn't matter Nearly as much as liquidity matters Right because all these coins can sort Of point to something that is slightly Different about what they do over what Someone else does or over what another Chain does at the end of the day it Hasn't mattered the different Fundamentals of all four of these coins They're all down about 90% from the All-time high um and so I would I would I would at least sort of look at at Salana in that light one other way I Think that might be and this is probably My own fault for not talking about it in This manner before is I I normally just Look at Bitcoin dominance right and and I and you know I make videos on bitcoin Dominance that are far too long for People to stay interested but um one of The things about Bitcoin dominance is That for a lot of people it's just this Sort of this nebulous number that Doesn't mean anything right like 40% Dominance or 50% dominance or even 60% Dominance right the question is is well How does that affect me right how does That affect my portfolio how do you how

Do you make money on on on knowing where The Bitcoin dominance is going to go and I think the point of it is if you were To go to say like let's go to the adaa Bitcoin chart and then let's inverse it So we're going to look at the Bitcoin Divided by adaa chart at the beginning Of 2022 Right let's just take it from 2021 right August 2021 in August of 2021 one Bitcoin was worth about 16,000 Ada right So if you took one Bitcoin and converted It to Ada You' have gotten about 16,000 Ada if you converted one Bitcoin to Ada Today you would get 105,000 Ada right so that really shows Just why dominance is important is Because just having kept your crypto Portfolio mostly in Bitcoin over the Last year and a half or whatever Exposure you wanted you likely could Then go pick up that altcoin with your Bitcoin for you know and get a lot more Of that altcoin while still maintaining Exposure to the cryptoverse Via Bitcoin Right so like look again one Bitcoin Used to be worth 16,000 Ada now when Bitcoin is worth 105,000 Ada and and Maybe I'll just give two more examples Let's go take a look at salana so salana If we look at the one over salana so if We just look at at um you know the Bitcoin salana valuation back in late 2021 if you had converted one Bitcoin to

Salana you would have only received About 234 soul today you would get Almost 1,200 salana right so that's the Importance of of Bitcoin dominance right It's it's it's the recognition that a Lot of these altcoins are just bleeding Back to bitcoin and that by by keeping Your exposure to crypto mostly confined To bitcoin then your purchasing power to Obtain those altcoins should go up Significantly so what I'm looking for is I'm looking for Bitcoin to sort of get This you know continue this secondary Scare that we've talked about it could Be due to a recession and that's what Leads to those very low valuations in The altcoin market where you know Converting a little bit of Bitcoin can Go a long way in helping people Accumulate altcoins for the next cycle And by the way if anybody at home wants Access to these charts I will put my uh Affiliate link down below altcoin daily 10% off but Benjamin that's how you Would have made money six months ago Trading that Bitcoin dominance if you're Trying to make money today is your Thesis we might not go up the other 50% But we might have 20 30 40% still to Go I think the dominance still has about About 10% to go up um you know looking At averages if we if we were to look at The average of dominance without stable Coins of a Bitcoin so this again this

Excludes the stablecoin market um but if We look at the current cycle 20 23 this Is what it looks like right and I want To average out the last two preh having Years 2015 and 2019 I think this is going to play Catchup and you know you can see that in That year if you average out those two Prior years the the dominance went up About you know 25% from the from the Yearly open right 25% we're currently at About you know we're currently at 1.15 X So there's still about you know another 10% move to go and you know some people Say well where's that 10% going to come From because if if even if the altcoin Market breaks down like there there's so Low market cap how could it possibly Have that that larger effect and I think The Answer lies with ethereum so the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation I I think is Where the answer lies and I've said this Many many times as well and and I know It's not a popular View and it hasn't Been a popular view but you know the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation was putting In new yearly lows like yesterday right So the the the view of the ethereum Bitcoin valuation being in a downtrend Has not been wrong right it has been the Correct view I think the issue is what Happens if we break this to the downside And my expectation is that the ethereum

Bitcoin valuation will break down to Around that 03 to 0.4 range and I think That'll go a long way in bringing that Bitcoin dominance up so that's what I'm Looking at and and look I I know the Counterpoint to this wedge is that some People might say well that's a a a Bullish falling wedge um that that could Break to the upside They could be right right they could be Right um but I think fundamentally at Least for my own like especially with Ethereum now it's now at least Temporarily it's become inflationary Right there's not enough activity going On to to offset the issuance anymore and And it's starting to become inflationary Again it's still nowhere near the supply That it that it was at at the merge but If the activity if the lack of activity Today goes on for another six months Then it it could go back up to those Levels so that's what I'm looking at I Do think we will get another move by Dominance to the upside and and one last Thing about the dominance uh because This is is something that I I think a Lot of people might not be aware of is The move from 50% to 60% Could Happen Very quickly and and if you don't Believe me the move from 60% to 50% Happened in one month in one month from 60 to 50 and the reason that's when The Ether Bitcoin valuation went up a lot

Right like that that's April of 2021 you Can see what ether Bitcoin was doing Here right April and May ether Bitcoin Was going up what happens if it goes Back down to 0.3 to 0.4 that's how you Get the Bitcoin dominance to 60% and That's when the accumulation phase Finally starts in my opinion for the Altcoin market at least with respect to Bitcoin and with that said there are Some altcoins that have already probably Put in their lows on their USD pairs but You know most of them most of them could Still go lower and and if they don't go Lower on their USD pairs and there's a a Really high likelihood still that they Would go lower on their Bitcoin pairs Because Bitcoin normally leads the bull Market Benjamin I love it I want to have You back in a few months revisit some of These charts look forward into 2024 Let's flip the cameras just solely on us And final thoughts for the alone daily Army yeah I would say just you know I Mean hang in there right like this part Of the cycle is really hard I think it's Hard on everyone it's hard both on bulls And bears right if you're a bull uh Especially if you're a bull in the coin Market it's hard if you're a bear I know A lot of I know a lot look bears are Bulls in in waiting right like they you Know a lot of the people who are bearish On the AL Queen Market are not you know

Perpetually bearish right they will Likely eventually become Bulls it's just A matter of time so I am very bullish on The cryptocurrency asset class the Reason why I sort of operate the way I Do is because I've seen just how badly Altcoins can get wrecked you know and They can get wrecked you know even two And a half years after after bitcoin's All-time highs we saw that last cycle I Think we're watching it again happen now Again and and I would be looking for Liquidity to return so when you see the Recession headlines like once those Recession headlines come back which I Think they probably will within a few Months that is likely where the altcoin Market finally bottoms out and the Reason for that is because recession Headlines mean that liquidity is going To start coming back and we know that Altcoins are mostly a function of excess Liquidity


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