Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be providing an update to the bull Market support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Check out into the cryptoverse premium At into the cryptoverse decom let's go Ahead and jump in so Bitcoin sort of has This relationship with the bullmark Sport band The 20we Ese and the 21 we EMA where when we're above it the General sentiment is more bullish when We are below it the general sentiment is More bearish and one of the things that We have discussed a lot this year and You know I I I've said it basically Since January I think is that in the Prehab year what tends to happen is we Go up for half the year and we go down For half the year right and the Expectation has always been that if we Go up for the first half of the year Then the general idea is that Bitcoin Would Trend down for the second half of The Year okay now at this point we don't Really know if that's going to come to Fruition or not right like that thesis Could of course be wrong but at this Point it seems like our prior Expectations have been met right I mean Again we don't know what the next two And a half months will hold but if you

Think about what has happened so far This year the first half of the year was Mostly up and It's still hard to say right because you Know until we see what sort of the Reconciliation of this move it's hard to Know if if sort of the second part of The thesis will come to or not but you Can see that at least locally Bitcoin Found this top in July there is a chance Of course good chance so that ends up Being the yearly High um the the the Highs in the summer of 2011 and 2019 Also marked the yearly High uh we did Not go higher in Q4 the only prehab year Where we did go higher was in 2015 but In that year we actually went down you Know for the first half of the year Right off and on I mean but most of the Months in the first half of the year Ended up being red so then the second Half of the year was mostly green right So at this point though what normally Happens back in if you think back in in July what did we say we said that in August and September of pre-election Years the S&P 500 generally gets a Correction right a 5 to 10% correction In August or September of the Pre-election Year and that is more or Less what happened right you can see Starting in in really the very end of July early August we entered into this Correction it ended up being I believe

It was maybe like 7 or 8% uh so yeah it was actually almost 9 About 8 and a half% right about an 8 and 1 half% correction which is pretty Standard I mean like that might even be A little bit more than what we normally Get in pre-election years but the the The interesting thing though is if you Were to go look at say the year to dat Roi of the S&P 500 right just go pull it Up for the S&P 500 and then we um Average out all prior pre-election Years so let's go ahead and do that and Then if you look at the average and then You look at 2023 right you can see that This correction pulled us back to where The S&P 500 normally is at this point in Pre-election years right it pulled us Back to that level and we said that it Was that correction that would likely Pull Bitcoin below the bull market Support ban right it would it was that Correction by the S&P that tends to drop Bitcoin below its bull market support Band in August or September of its Prehab year you can see that Bitcoin Fell below its bullmark support pin here In August 2011 it fell below it in August of 2015 it fell below it in September of 2019 and we just said guys you know it's Not about you know what you want to Happen it's just sort of like an Acknowledgement that we normally get a

Correction by traditional markets in Q3 Of the preab year um and or sorry the Pre-election year and it normally drops Crypto into a downtrend for the rest of The year right see the same thing Happened here Bitcoin dropped below the Bull market support band Just as the S&P 500 was starting to Correct and I've said for a long time That you know we're so far into the game Now that the reason that crypto drops at This point isn't necessarily crypto Related or crypto specific it's more or Less just due to say you know macro Conditions or how the S&P 500 is doing You know like if the S&P 500 were to Drop 10% of course crypto is going to Drop with it you can't expect you know The S&P to drop 8 and a half% and for Not to have adverse effects on the Cryptocurrency asset class right so we Saw that same correction that we Normally get right we got this Correction it was a 10% correction below The bull market support band that Started in mid August now what's Interesting is if you look at the Entirety of this move here it's about a 2X move right it's about a 2X move off The lows and then the candle that Dropped us below the bull market support B was a 10% drop okay okay a 10% drop so A 2X move and then a 10% drop to get us Potentially into the downtrend in 2019

It was about a 4X move you know and then There was just a lot more volatility and Then the drop here that got us below the 20we SMA was a 20% move right so it's Basically like the the volatility was I Mean it's not exactly right but I mean You get the idea there was there was There was a lot more volatility uh about Double in fact in terms of the lows to The highs in the prehab year and then Also sort of the correction in the Q3 of The prehab year that knocked us below The 20we SMA with a 20% drop and what You'll notice is that after this drop we Had this move over here where we sort of Wicked up to the bull market support Band came back down and then we had a More sizable rally right we had a more Sizable rally now what caused this Sizable Rally and I I've said this many times Right I think again it's always up for Interpretation it's always what you Think it's not you know just because I Think this is what caused it doesn't Mean that I'm right right I mean you can Be right for the wrong reasons that is a Thing um but what often happens is when You get a death cross you rally into the Death cross right and that's exactly What we did right we sold off just Before it and then we rallied into it And the reason that happens is because a Lot of people see the new the headline

They see the headline death cross they They get scared and they sell And when They see it Go lower over here they Freak out and then Bitcoin pumps into The death cross and then what normally Happens is that when it pumps into the Death cross then all the people that Sold down here end up yoloing back in up Here because you're like oh crap like I Shouldn't have fallen for the death Cross you know and then after they s They sell here and then they buy here And then it just goes down and puts in a New low right so the general idea And we we sort of looked at at what Happened in 2019 to sort of guide us is When you get a golden cross what Normally happens is you sell off into it Right you go down into a golden cross The overall trend remains to the upside In a death cross what often happens not Always but what often happens is you get A pump into it but the overall downtrend Remains intacted right so it's the Reverse of what you normally think right The initial move is Different than the the longer term move In and that's what we saw in 2019 now if you fast forward to today we Had a very similar setup right we had a Golden cross in February and we sold off Into it but the overall uptrend still Remained intact right the overall Uptrend still remained intact and then

We said and I I put this video out Probably a week before the death cross Happened I said what'll likely happen is We even called for this little pump here And then I said we're likely going to go Down and then pump into the death cross Right and then the overall trend though Will remain down right that's what we Talked about is how we likely get this Pump into the death cross the overall Trend will unfortunately likely remain Down that doesn't mean that that view Has to be correct but it is the view That we said and so far it has been Playing out right we had the death cross On September 11th and that is when Bitcoin found a local low so right when The death cross occurred just like in 2019 Bitcoin rallied on up now where did It rally to it rallied to the bull Market support band now the bull market Support band again is the 20we SMA and The 21 we EMA and in 2019 we Wicked above it but on this Channel we don't really care about Wicks Right I don't you know the Wicks are are Something that most people don't even Great right because a lot of times they Happen so quickly that it it's sort of Like just like a quick liquidation Cascade and then you're back to where You were right so in 2019 we had a pump And it fizzled out at the bull market

Support band right we did not have Enough momentum enough confidence enough Buying power enough buying pressure to Actually kick us into an uptrend and What ended up happening was we put in a Lower low in November and then after That we rallied into the recession and Then crashed in in q1 of the having year Right so when we look at what's going on Today we said all right we likely rally Into the death cross right we rally into The death cross which is what happened And the key area to watch will be the Bull market support band because that is Exactly where the rally fizzled out last Time and just like in 2019 so far we had A wick above it right we had a wick Above it but one of the things that I've Said many many times is that you know You you must always have a reason to Potentially change your bias if you're Presented with new information and I Said look if Bitcoin can get multiple Consecutive weekly closes above the bull Market support band then I might have to Go back to the drawing board right Because normally what happens again After Golden Cross you rally up to the Bull market sport band you get rejected And you keep going down so I said if we Get a close above the 20we SMA and then We get follow through above it followed By you know some candles that are Hanging out above the bull market

Support band on this first initial Attempt over here then I would you know I'd have to go back to the drawing board But as you can see that has not Materialized at least not yet and so for Me the status quo remains unchanged what I see is I see a death cross rally that Rallied right up to the 20we SMA we then Wicked above it but the following week Did not close above the 20we ese right We said multiple consecutive weekly Closes in a row above the 20we and what Happened we got one close here and this One if you look closely closed below the 20we moving average this close was at 27,9 32 the 20we estimate that week was At 2 $ 7,978 it was about a $50 Difference it was close but it was it's Technically speaking and being Technically correct is the best way to Be correct we were below the 20we moving Average and then after we did not get Any follow through because we don't care About the Wicks right after we did not Get any follow through we then saw Another weekly Candle to the Downside that just closed not only below The 20we estim may but it also closed Below the 21 we EMA right we we Clos not Only below the 20 we SMA but also below The 21 we EMA so for me I know I see a Lot of the bullish sentiment right I see People talking about all the spot ETFs I

I hope we just get that past us soon I'd Like to see crypto Twitter talk about Something else But after all the all the bullish Stimate we still didn't close multiple Weeks above the 20we moving average and In fact in fact at this point would this Not have been the expectation right sell Off into the death cross rally on up Likely get rejected by the bull market Support band we can go above it we can Wick above it we can get a close above It but we said we likely will not get Multiple weekly closes above it so far That view has not been wrong it could Easily turn into being wrong but it's Not wrong yet and and so for me I have To look at this and say Well it kind of Seems like it's doing the exact same Thing that it Did over here right you you basically You you you get this drop below the 20we Moving average you consolidate for a few Weeks you even sort of get a fake pump Up to the 21 we EMA that Fizzles out we Got we had the same thing over here Right look at the I mean it's almost Identical so far you see this Wick right Here we had this Wick and then it Fizzled out and then we ended up seeing Some follow through after the death Cross after the death cross occurred and Then and then over here back test the Bull Mark support band and then go down

Right So look that's what's happened I know Some people don't like that but that is What happened and I mean I all I can do Is look at the chart and say this is What's happening and um and at this Point we have not yet diverged from our Prior expectations right we have not yet Diverged from prior expectations Bitcoin Is now back below the 21 we EMA it Doesn't mean we can't Wick back above it This week we could even go back above The 20 we for all we know but this point We have not diverged from you know from What we what we previously said now on Lower well I guess let me say on on Other moving averages right if we were To go look at the daily one of the Things that we've talked about two key Moving averages in the prehab year that Are important you have the 100 day and The 200 day and we got rejected by the Bull market support band but it also Happened to correspond coincidentally Enough a rejection by the 200 Day and the 100 day Right the 200 day SMA and the 100 day SMA you can see it right Here so it's interesting Because those were key moving averages Before as well if you think back to 2019 I believe it was the 100 day moving Average that Bitcoin really could not Stay above right it it really struggled

To stay above it And if you look here right if we just if We just look at the 100 day moving Average what you'll notice is that yes We closed below the 20we SMA on a weekly Time frame we also could not get back Above the 100 day ese either right you Can see we tested it August October 26th Or so we came down we tested it again in Early November rejection again and that Rejection is what led to new lows it led To this low here that took out the low We had in October it took out the low That that Bitcoin had in in May and it Also took out the one that Bitcoin had In June you can see these Wicks over Here took all of those out once Bitcoin Was rejected off the 100 day moving Average and you can see it had a couple Of attempts at it right it wasn't just a Single attempt there were two attempts If you zoom in there were two clear Attempts to get above it once here and Then another one about a week or two Later you can see we even Wicked right Up to it right that Wick went right up To that 100 day moving average so then We said all right well that's going to Be a key area to look at as well because The reason we say this is because if you Go back and look at 2015 you'll see that Bitcoin was able to Kind of hold above the 100 day moving Average in October right we got we we

Fell below it but then we got back above It but I would sort of put forth the Idea here that one of the reasons Bitcoin had so much strength to get back Above it here was because Bitcoin Dropped from this July High it dropped 50% right or 49% to give you guys an Idea of what that would mean right a 49% Drop by Bitcoin from these highs right a 49% drop Bas basically gets you back to The lows right I mean gets you back to Like 16k so yes we can look at what Happened in 2015 and say well back in 2015 we got back above the 100 day Moving average so it's always possible That happens this time around but the Counterpoint is that in 2015 the first Half of the year was mostly red unlike 2011 unlike 2019 and unlike 2023 second Of all it was after almost a 50% drop Right so like if Bitcoin were to drop Back down to the prior lows there Probably would be a lot of buying Pressure coming back in Right so but as long as that doesn't Happen then I almost wonder if a 2019 Scenario could be more likely until Something like that does happen so when You look at it here though we fell below It we rallied back up to the 100 day Moving average and look what you look What you see right we had one test of it On October 2nd and then we came back Down and then we sort of tested it again

Over here a couple of times October 8th October 5th October 6th um and yeah like We could not get any daily closes above It and now the 100 day moving average is At 2708 27.8k 27795 so that's what so I think we Should watch that right I Mean and it's almost like you know you Can kind of see this big SL I mean this It sort of slowly went up right and then It seems like it sort of leveled out up Here in the summer near the near the Highs which is exactly where we said the Yearly highs would likely be and then It's slowly starting to roll over right And the 100 day Previously held as Support note that it held as Support After the golden cross the 100 day Moving average held as support after the Golden Cross now the 100 day moving Average seems like it's holding Resistance after the death cross right It seems like there's just like a the Reverse it seems like almost like the Reverse is what's happening okay so the The one thing locally that you might Notice is that Bitcoin has seen at least A little bit of a bounce here off the 50-day moving average right and I don't Know I I don't really remember if it did The same thing uh back in in 2019 or not We can go take a look

Um it looks like we rallied above it Right we got above the 50-day we sort of Fell back down into it we got a a couple Of Pops off of it here but we were Unable to get back up to the 100 day Moving average right so I almost wonder If we're if we're doing something like That right where we're trying to hold The 50-day and you can see here back in November of 2019 we held the 50-day for About a week maybe a little over a week And then we slowly fell below it right After after trying to hold it for a week Unable to get back up to the 100 day Moving average unable to get back above The 20we SMA and then we just saw Bitcoin slowly roll over into November Now you could argue we're one month Ahead this time um for instance the Having this year or next year should Come a month earlier um in 2019 we fell Below the bull market support band in September in 2023 we fell below it in August so it seems like we're kind of Maybe one month ahead so to me I'm still Looking at this and thinking like well It hasn't Really made a move outside of what we Might have expected just by looking at What happened in in 2019 in fact this Move here you can see it it still hasn't Made it to the 100 day I'm not saying it Can't but I mean it it got down to the 50-day on October 11th so now we're

About four to five days in um in from That so this is I think what we need to Look at right and you guys know my Thoughts I mean I've said before I think That the liquidity is is sort of leaving The the altcoin market and and it's been Going over to bitcoin and for the first Half of the Year there was so much Liquidity in the altcoin market that it Led to higher highs by Bitcoin but the Problem is that once you get so far into The prehab year all that liquidity that Existed Once Upon a Time in the altcoin Market is no longer there right A lot of These altcoins are in the process of Becoming shells of their former selves And so there's just not nearly as much Liquidity now in the altcoin market that There was back N9 or 10 months ago and So what ends up happening is that people Still convert their alts for Bitcoin and It leads to these sort of these rallies By Bitcoin but it doesn't mean that it's Going to lead to a higher high right it Could just simply be a lower high for All we know right and so that I think is The issue is that at some point you Reach this level where there's not Enough liquidity in the altcoin market To support these Bitcoin valuations Because the idea is that people slowly Convert their altcoins to Bitcoin in the Prehab year as more and more people sort Of start to recognize that Bitcoin

Dominance goes up in the preh having Year you back at the beginning of the Year when dominance was like 40% it Seemed like no one on on Twitter thought The dominance was going to go up I mean We were very vocal about it right that It was but it seems like a lot of people Did not believe that and now we are Sitting at 51% and you know the the Dominance bearers get excited anytime it Goes down like a quarter of a percent Right and then they get quiet anytime it Pushes you know it it it makes new highs So I think we have to look at this and Say at this point our prior expectations Have been met Sell off into the death cross then as The death cross occurs get a rally up to The 20we moving average no daily closes Above the 100 day SMA just like 2019 Liquidity is is is draining by the way You can look at Bitcoin and say you know this looks Looks okay right it's still technically Higher lows since you know since September 11th technically higher Lows but look at ethereum right look at Ethereum ethereum just went Lower a few days ago than it went on September 11th before that death cross Rally right it just went lower and What's fascinating about ethereum by the Way is that you see these two moves by Ethereum same thing in 2019 as well same

Thing and the second move was a little Bit more impressive than the first not By much but it did technically go higher Same thing happened in 2019 with Ethereum right it it had those it had These two moves and it occurred right You can see here the first one occurred In August and then the second one Occurred after Bitcoin's um or sorry no it I'm I'm I'm On the wrong month here the first one I Believe occurred was it Here Yeah because this was after the the drop Below the bullmark sport bin right so Had ethereum had one move here and then It had a second move that went slightly Higher than the first move just very Very slightly higher than it and then Look what happened at ethereum is then Slowly rolled over it came back down to These Levels right it came back down to these Levels a lot of people thought this was Going to be some type of Spring we came we we we dropped came Back up back tested sort of the Breakdown point retested it roll over Into a lower low right so from this Level ethereum dropped another 25% Before the end of the year right now Today look at Ethereum look where it is right it kind Of has a very similar setup right like

Where it's down here a lot of people are Probably hoping this turns into a spring But you know if this drops 25% from this Level down here just like it did last Cycle you know that's a that gets Ethereum to 1134 1134 is an interesting number in fact The reason it's an interesting number is Because that's below the yearly open and The reason why that's interesting is Because if you were to look at the Year-to date Roi of Ethereum in 2019 you will see that it in Fact closed the year below its yearly Open the ROI by the end of the year was Like .93 meaning it was about 7% below Its yearly Open What was ethereum's yearly open it was 1195 was 1195 1195 right if you go about 7% below That gets you down to 1100 look at the year-to date Roi of eth 2019 now look at 2023 it's not that Different it's not that Different so At this point I don't really think that This move by Bitcoin is outside of Prior Expectations I am still open to the idea Of you know of it potentially going a Little bit higher

But I I still think the most likely Direction is a lower High um at least This year and I I mean I think Bitcoin Could you know could could see some Renewed strength next year in the having Year you know once QE returns um but at This point you know at this point I um It really does seem like it's doing what We what we expected so we'll see what Happens and I know I know Bitcoin sort Of just got a little bit of a rally here Into the uh into the close but the Problem is that while it while it did Rally into the Close it still closed below the 21 we EMA right it still closed below that so It's kind of like yeah it's a nice Little Rally but you still close below the 21 We EMA it's like it's like a month ago Do you guys remember the ether Bitcoin Rally that a very very brief rally that Occurred at the end of the month Probably not right you probably don't Remember it because you know ever since Then ether Bitcoin sold off but ether Bitcoin had this rally the last week of September and the reason why people were Sort of you know were excited about that Was because it had just been selling off For so long and then moved back up only Then just get completely demolished the Following couple of weeks right but the Reason reason why that's interesting is

If you look at a monthly candle of ether Bitcoin you'll see that if it had gone Up a little bit more it maybe could have You know put in a a candle that looked Like this where it still would have kept The Bulls and the Bears guessing but it Closed down here the lowest monthly Close that that ether Bitcoin had had For for more than a year right so it did Get that rally into the monthly close But it still was a bearish monthly Candle just kind of like with Bitcoin You know I look at it here and I'm like Yeah it technically got that rally into The weekly Close but it's still Clos below the 21 We Em Right like Bitcoin still dropped 2.71% last week it still was unable to Put in consecutive weekly candles above The 20we SMA the altcoin market is still Over here getting demolished you know I Mean just completely getting wrecked They're going lower on their Bitcoin Pairs they're going lower on their USD Pairs everyone acts like it's okay Because well bitcoin's still holding up Strong but what happens if Bitcoin takes Out these lows right like what happens Then and I think that is sort of the Concern is if if Bitcoin were to take Out these lows that's where the altcoin Market gets wrecked right one of the Things we' said is that Bitcoin rallies What they do is they break all Bitcoin

Pairs down so that when Bitcoin rolls Over those altcoins have nowhere to hide And the king of the altcoin market Ethereum the ethereum Bitcoin valuation Has now broken support this is a big Deal I think this this wedge here has Been something everyone's been talking About forever and I've been saying over And over and over again all year long That it's likely going to break to the Downside right and I can't tell you how Many people said you don't you know just You wait right it's going to break to The upside because it's a bullish Ascending wedge right we said no it's Probably going to break to the downside And it now it seems like it has right so These rallies by Bitcoin serve a purpose They break altcoins off of their Bitcoin Support levels so that when Bitcoin Rolls Over ether has nowhere to hide it it it Can't find support on these levels Because it's now below those Levels it even rallied back up 2.05 intra week and got rejected right It got rejected right here at that level If you were to go back to last cycle you Will notice that once ethereum got to 0.058 it hesitated for a week and then Collapsed okay so my opinion has not Changed I still think that prehab years Are characterized by going up long Enough to give the Bulls a false sense

Of Security to make them feel invincible And to say that Bitcoin only goes higher Only for Bitcoin to slowly roll over and Take out these prior Lows that's what Bitcoin normally does In prehab years it's what it normally Does and yeah for some reason everyone Acts like it's so surprising that it's Happening right so this is what I think We we need to look at with Bitcoin Follow the 20we SMA follow the 21 we EMA 20we SMA this week 27,9 27936 21 week EMA 27296 so more or Less ranges from around 27 .3k to 27.9k Let's just call 28k between 27 to 28k Right a little over 27k all the way up To around 28k that's where your bullmark Sport Ben is and if there are any Rallies Up the Bulls would really want to see Closes multiple consecutive closes up Here if they can't get that then it it Would seem to me that it's it's Following what our prior expectations Have been and that's where you spend the First half of the Year going up and the Second half of the Year going down and At this point I know you know it's tooo It's still too early to say but if this Is indeed a rejection off the 20we SMA Then you know Bitcoin could easily just Come down here and and take out these Prior lows over here so that is the

Update for the week on the bull marks Wein hopefully you guys enjoyed it if You guys do enjoy it we do offer of Course into the cryptoverse premium and Into the crypt.of

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