Job Openings

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the macroverse today we're going to Talk about job openings if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up And also check out the sale on into the Crypto various premium at into the let's go ahead and jump In so I want to talk through job Openings because we did get this data on The first of August one of the things We've talked about is one of the reasons Why the unemployment rate hasn't moved Is just simply because there's been so Much excess demand for labor that even Though people have gotten laid off many Of them could just be finding jobs Potentially elsewhere just because There's so many job offerings right There's so much job availability out There and so there's there's been a lot To a lot of access to absorb You can see that total non-farm job Openings peaked out here in you know in Early 2022 and it's ever since then it's Been in a in a fairly systematic Downtrend of course it is stochastic It's not a linear process but in fact it Has been slowly moving down and and even This past report we saw it down another Thirty four thousand jobs but I thought It might be also interesting to look at It by sector okay so we have total Non-farm we can also look at total

Private jobs you can see that that isn't A downtrend but the catch here is that a Lot of these downtrends are still Arguably not even above the pre-pandemic Trend right if you were to just look at This trend in general and how it was Steadily increasing if you were to just Draw the imaginary line through here you Could argue that we're only just now Approaching the prior Trend and so all That excess has to get absorbed and it Takes a long time to absorb it We could look at total government where There are a lot of jobs a lot of job Openings and that's actually been going Up recently you can see that ever since April 2023 uh it's been going back up Government job openings have not really Fallen off at all and is one of the Reasons why you know total total job Openings has remained so high if you're Like a state and local you'll find some A very similar thing as just total Government but I think it might be more Interesting to get into some of these Other sectors like construction and Manufacturing construction you know it Found a high here back in early 2020 or Late 2021 but then it also found sort of These secondary highs back over here in Mid to late 2022 ever since then it has Been sort of slowly trending down if you Look over here in 2019 we we saw Something similar right where it was

Slowly trending down and eventually we Did get a recession of course Potentially recession risk was pulled Forward due to the pandemic But Um you will see a you know a similar Stochastic process in Prior in Prior Business cycles for construction it Moves very very slowly what is more Eye-opening are things like the Manufacturing sector now the Manufacturing sector job openings have Been moving down quite quickly and Arguably they're already now at the Pre-pandemic trend and because the FED Is you know they're likely going to keep Rates higher for longer there is a good Chance that you know you fast forward Six more months this could easily be Well below Trend and could be starting To have a material impact on the Unemployment rate right if you were to Look at say a year over year percentage Change you can see where it currently is Now this somewhat is is deceptive one of The reasons it's so negative is just Simply because it went so high over here Right you don't really see it uh Previously we don't really see that many Job openings during these other business Cycles that we can take a look at but This cycle I mean total manufacturing Job openings are peaking at over a Million for reference in 2007 they

Peaked out at 377 000 or so so a big Difference so yes job openings have Fallen in the manufacturing sector down To 582 000 but this number is still well Above where it was in 2018 and 2019. Maybe not well above it but it is it is Still above it and if you fast forward Again another three to six months it Could start to go below the prior Pre-print the pre-pandemic trend if you Look at durable goods you'll see Something very similar as manufacturing Moving down pretty quickly again a Year-over-year percentage change looks Pretty bad but you also have to remember That the reference point is is coming Um you know from a pretty high level That is you know the that really stands Well above what we've seen in in Prior Business Cycles the other thing to Consider too though is as time goes on The population of the United States Again it it increases and therefore you You are going to need more job openings Just so you're sort of keeping Pace with The with the increasing population but With that said I mean the pre-pandemic Level uh for for durable goods job Openings were around Um I mean I guess I I guess in 2018 it Was around 319 000 by 2019 we were at Around a quarter of a million even with This big drop off it's still at 356 000. But again the question is is you know

This this last month we saw a drop by 23 000 Um the question of course is is well What happens if if over the next six Months it drops by another 200 000 and It's all the way down here in the you Know in the one to two hundred thousand Dollar or not 200 000 but one to two Hundred thousand job range that's where It could of course have a very big Impact on on things like the Unemployment rate If you look at non-durable Goods you'll See something similar I'm not going to Spend a ton of time talking about each One but I will at least click through Them so that if you're interested in a Certain sector you can pause the video And then just take a look at that chart Uh here's trade transportation and Utilities this is is retail trade retail Trade did come down quite a bit but ever Since uh really about mid 2022 it hasn't Hasn't really moved a whole lot Professional and business services it's Come down but it's leveling off here at Least recently education and Health Services honestly hasn't really had a Huge impact in fact on the most recent Print it was up 123 000 job openings Healthcare and social assistance has not Really budged a whole lot in fact the Most recent jobs report is up 136 000 Leisure and hospitality

That actually is is in a in in a Downtrend right now and is down to 1.22 Million note that the the 2018 high or Sorry the 2019 high was at 1.14 million So while it has fallen it is still above These levels and arguably only just now Getting to the pre-pandemic uptrend okay So you know it fell off a cliff here It's gone up and now we're just in the Process of of trying to figure out you Know can the fat can the FED manufacture A soft Landing or or will it eventually Just be a hard Landing because they hold Rates too high for too long if you look At Arts entertainment and Recreation uh You will see that the FED hasn't really Made much progress there and softening Up Um the job market and accommodation and Food Services has actually Fallen Recently as well I mean this is a Service-based economy to a large extent So to see to see service jobs falling is Is at least You know interesting from a you know From a perspective of trying to Understand if the economy is slowing Down you could see the most recent Report is down 98 000 job openings in The in the accommodation and Food Services sector Um to give a reference point in 2019 we Saw a total job openings in the sector At 1.04 million now it's at 1.05 million

So it is now coming back into those Prior levels arguably still around the Pre the pre-pandemic trend because this Was just sort of like a a one-off move To the upside and then came back down Arguably still around that pre-pandemic Trend but again what happens if the FED Keeps rates higher for longer let's say For another six months do we find this You know all the way back down here in In more recession like territory Hopefully this video has been useful I Know the job openings videos aren't Necessarily the most Um riveting to to watch but I hope that At least some people appreciate the view That they provide again if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up And again check out the sale on into the Cryptiverse premium at into the you can actually access These charts even though even the Non-crypto charts right there's all Sorts of charts that we look at over Here and Um a ton of macro charts as well as you Can see these are all different just Like sectors that you can look at like Recession charts interest rate charts Monetary data charts exchange rate Charts banking charts and so on and so Forth thank you guys for tuning in I'll See you next time bye


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