How Bitcoin’s next move could shatter $32K

Bitcoin price action has been quite Static recently that may be the Calm Before the storm according to Glass node Analysts on-chain metrics are signaling That a major price move is imminent now The main questions are in what direction Will this move go and how should you Prepare for it to find out we looked at The on-chain data with glass node Analyst James check before we start as Always don't forget to like the video And subscribe to our Channel also turn On the notification Bell to keep up to Date on our next videos I'm Giovanni on This show we challenge the ideas that Shape the world of crypto in each Episode we assess a crypto narrative a Macroeconomic Outlook or a potentially Disruptive technology only the most Solid ideas will make it to the other Side In a recent report you pointed out that We are living through a period of Relative calm in the in in terms of Price action so Bitcoin has been trading Within a quite tight range uh with very Low levels of volatility and very low Levels of volume which is uh quite rare You point out that it usually a sign That a big price move is coming up soon So what does it make you think so Exactly yeah absolutely and I mean it's Kind of a the nature of markets we Generally see uh range expansion rage

Contraction so the market likes to move Um consolidate in a certain price range And what happens is you reach a point When sellers of all all sorts people who Are taking profits people who are taking Losses basically everybody comes to Terms with the current price range and Uh you know this plays out in technical Analysis and on-chain Analysis where you See this kind of compression Um and we've seen it across a lot of Things we've seen price trading within a Very very narrow band Um trading volume is down quite Significantly this is a structural Trend As well this is not just a uh a local Phenomena we've had kind of a multi-year Decline since 2021 uh of trade volumes And we see that in on-chain volumes as Well just the sheer amount of coins that Are transacting uh are getting fewer and Fewer so it's really getting to the the Sucking out of all the liquidity prices Compressing and uh very rarely does Bitcoin sit still like this for very Long it usually precedes a regime of Higher volatility Traders have Essentially uh you know prices Consolidated Traders have bought and Sold and uh the next move whatever the Volatility is going to be in whichever Direction that's going to be the new Incentive for investors to basically Take a new position and uh and move from

Where we currently are you basically Said that whether this price movement is Going to go up or down depends on the Short-term holders so why why is it that Yeah absolutely so um so at last day We've got two a heuristic called Long-term and short-term holders Um and the reason we use this is that There's a threshold of about five months And uh once a coin has been in an Investor's wallet for that period of Time it's statistically much less likely To be spent so we put them in the Long-term holder bucket the hogler Bucket however we want to describe it Now if we look at hodler Supply we've Got many metrics coins older than one Year older than two year three year five Year they are all pushing up to new All-time highs so we're basically seeing That the hodlers are not doing anything They're just sitting tight and their Spending is extremely low So the other side of the equation is the Short-term holders and not quite but um The the actual threshold for that kind Of band more or less is 2023 because We're coming up on uh on five months now And uh so essentially the short-term Holders encompasses everybody who Acquired their coins in 2023 onwards Which for the most part has now been an Uptrend so what we're basically seeing Is that the long-term holders are not

Doing much so that means that the Short-term holders are going to be the Primary driving Factor Um and where we sit at the moment is an Interesting Dynamic where we look at Their cost basis what's the average Price in which all these people acquired Their coins we're currently sitting on It 26 500 I think last I checked and Generally speaking that isn't it a Psychological level of support across The whole Market people are kind of Sitting at their cost basis they're not In profit or loss they're not spending Any significant margin so if we get Another rally higher it could be it'll Create a greater incentive for people to Take additional profits right we're up 70 on the year if there's another rally That could get up to 100 you get an Incentive likewise there's a bunch of Those people who bought their coins over The course of the last two months and Are currently underwater so there's Already a group of these people who have Bought their coins and they're kind of Sitting there going I'm actually Underwater on my coins and if we get a Sell-off from here there may be that Panic so generally speaking they're Going to be the cohort that kind of Accelerates the move in whichever Direction it goes I also had a look at One of the glass node co-founders he

Said that he's predicting a 35 a Thousand for Bitcoin in the midterm I Think that he means in the summer in the Course of the summer basically it Predicts uh she's pretty confident that Uh rally to 35 000 is on the cards What's your take on that it is it too Optimistic yeah I think that's a it's an Interesting price level because um There's a couple of models that sit up There so Um you'll often hear people talk about The realized price um which is basically The average price of all coins that have Moved in the supply Um now my team has been doing some work Studying because is it really fair that We look at satoshi's coins which are Holding extraordinary profits and all The Lost Miners and all the rest of it So we've been doing some work to analyze What happens if you remove those lost Coins and the reason why we're doing That is because those lost coins are Going to mask if you've got a you know Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Profit that's never going to get spent You're going to hide the 100 billion Dollars of losses that people who bought In the previous cycle are holding so We've been doing a couple of models to Try and isolate kind of the economically Active investors what is their cost

Basis and removing all those lost coins And interestingly enough the level that We kind of find when we start extracting That is up there around that 30 I think It's about 32 000 that kind of Realm so My my instinct tells me that's kind of Where the true the true cost basis is Sitting it's where kind of the mean Reversion level would be Um so I rallied to that level to be Honest wouldn't surprise me Um however what I'm I'm also conscious Of is that when you come up to people's Cost bases right they've just weathered A 2022 their Market Um there's a lot of people out there who Are just waiting to get their money back Right just just get me out of this Bitcoin thing I don't want to deal with This this bear Market anymore Um so that uncertainty is something that We still have to work through so Um very similar to 2019 Um similar to 2016 there was like a 12-month period in both of those Instances which was kind of a long-term Sideways chop a re-accumulation period And it wouldn't surprise me if that kind Of 32 level Um was somewhere around kind of the Middle Point with that midpoint or maybe Towards the ceiling of that level Um so certainly there's there's a lot of Models that would indicate price wants

To go up there but I can also see that That's an area where you'd start getting More resistance people who are up there And kind of waiting for their money to Come back give me whatever liquidity I Can I suspect there'll be a lot of Resistance as we get through that point I hear very often this comparison with 2019 like as the 2023 point where we are Now can be compared to the point we were In 2019 in terms of cycle price Cycles Market cycles and um what I I was Listening to an analyst who was making The point that in 2019 we had half a Year which was basically in in the red And half a year in the green so the First part of the year was was quite Bullish then the next half was was Bearish went down and then we recovered Only Um only 2020 when we had the start of The of the bull run but so do you think That there is a chance that this Cyclicality is going to play out again In in 2023 the year right before the year of The halving yeah I think it'll be Similar but different Um so I think that 2019 kind of looking For that we call it an echo bubbly kind Of get like a a second miniature bubble There he goes oh look the bull Market's Back and then it turns out that you've Still got a year of bear Market ahead of

You Um the interesting thing about 2019 is There was a huge spot bid Um which was driven by the plus token Ponzi in in China so Um this was kind of this unknown we Didn't know about this at the time so Price is rallying and you know went from Four thousand fourteen thousand and I Think it was about three months or four Months Um and we didn't know this until Um very late in the cycle Um that there was actually this kind of Tremendous spot bid that wasn't being Accounted for Um now where we currently sit to be Honest if I was going to give more of Where I think it's going to look like I Actually think something closer to a 2016 is closer to what I expect Um and there's a couple of reasons for This the first one is that we don't have That kind of insane spot bid there's no Kind of like a discrete thing that's Causing that bid just yet and certainly I'm very cautious because transaction Volumes are very low and transaction Volumes exchange inflows exchange Outflows they're all cyclically low and That's a good proxy for demand in my Book so I'm not yet seeing kind of like This enormous inrush of wireside volume But what I am seeing is that the people

Who are still here right the people who Survive the bear market and still Believe in Bitcoin they are still very Much active so it's kind of that dollar Cost average just slowly chipping away At it and the other thing to note is That Leverage is extremely low right now We've seen Futures markets deleveraged Significantly a lot more open interest Has moved across to the options space Which is generally more contained Market Um it's less so um you know options will Tend to expire expire worthless they're Less so kind of Futures that will drive Massive fee leveraging events Um so we've seen it deleveraging and We've also seen following FTX a Preference for spot so people have been Pulling coins off exchanges by and large Um kind of you know they've seen FTX go Down and they just don't want that to Happen to them again so we're in this Regime where it's more spot driven in my View and I think that's probably more Likely to resemble the 2016 style than It is to do a 2019 Style another Respected analyst Michael McGlone from Bloomberg who is focused on macro is Quite bearish towards the upcoming price Action for Bitcoin basically he's saying That liquidity is still being pulled out From the market uh he says that the Macro doesn't look good that we're gonna Probably not have a soft Landing in the

US and so the whole macro environment That he describes is not good for risk On assets and Bitcoin is still very much A risk on asset so for the midterm he's Still pretty bearish on bitcoin what What's your take on on his opinion no I To be honest I think it's actually a Very same Tech and uh you know the funny Thing about the current market regime is Anybody that knows where price is going To go is just dead wrong because some of The smartest investors in the world are Saying the same message which is that This is the hardest Market they have Ever seen to predict what's going on and You'll find very credible analysts Saying that the markets are going to All-time highs stock markets and Everything else and you'll find other Very credible analysts saying that uh You know it's it's seriously dark out There I think really it's the time for People to be nimble and uh it's you know At the end of the day that's why you Look at Unchained data so uh you know so Discreetly is that it tells me what Investors are doing with respect to Bitcoin and as you mentioned Um bitcoin's kind of one of these Indicators of liquidity we see it the First and fastest fire alarm to respond When things start to happen so in many Ways you should actually start seeing These things playing out bitcoin's kind

Of like the index if liquidity starts Getting pulled out because the you know The the US government's got to refill The uh the treasury general account Bitcoin's gonna feel that and it's Probably going to feel it first and You'll start seeing that reaction Playing out in in Bitcoin investors Behavior so um no I think it's a very Sane perspective um it's certainly Something that I've got um on my eye on As well Um so I'm certainly not blindly bullish I'm actually quite cautious Um certainly in the short term over the Next couple of months but again we see These Cycles play out who knows we could Equally go to all-time high it's it's a Crazy world out there let's see how it Plays out how this trend plays out and Uh yeah thanks a lot James for coming on Our show to us as always a very Interesting conversation a pleasure mate Thanks for having me on Cheers


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