Bitcoin: The Halving Approaches

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the crypto today we're going to Talk about Bitcoin the having approaches if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out the sale On into the cryptoverse premium at Intothe crypto.com links in the Description below make sure you guys Check that out we're going to end the Sale after the having sometime this Weekend I don't know exactly when but I Would go ahead and get it now if you Want the subscription at the lower rate Before we jump in I I would like to say Thank you to everyone who is a Subscriber here I like to kind of take a Step back when I hit these major Milestones and just say you know I I Really do appreciate everyone Subscribing it means the world to be at 800,000 subscribers you know when I Started the Channel I had no idea that it it would Grow to be this big uh but here we are And I I really do appreciate everyone Subscribing to the channel and I know I Don't get everything right and I I do Get things wrong um but I do appre Appreciate you guys sticking with me uh Either way so I just wanted to to Acknowledge that and to say thank you to Everyone for being a subscriber also the

The having is is almost here and in fact By the time you watch this video the Having's probably already happened um I'll try to get the video out here uh in A in a in you know 30 minutes or so um If we take a look when it's going to Occur at least from when I'm recording This video it's going to be about 5 Hours um but by the time you're watching This video it's probably going to be a Lot less And it could already be behind us if you Go look at the Um at the the how many blocks it looks Like we only have about 30 blocks to go So it is coming up really really soon And I I just think it's such a big event I'm going to try to live stream it That's my goal is to try to live stream The event uh it is in about again 5 Hours it's going to be a little tricky Cuz that's going to sort of correspond With some uh bedtime routines for my Kids uh but I will try to to to live Stream it if I can uh so do look out for That here in the next four or I guess by The time you're watching this video It'll be a different time but ideally I'm going to try to get get on here live By 8:30 Eastern um is my goal but again No Promises so Bitcoin is is currently at At 64k we're going to keep this pretty Short um because I mean you guys know my

Thoughts on the market but I do just Want to say you know there there's a Couple of different scenarios that could Play out and I'm sure you've seen me Talk about him a thousand times you've Probably seen everyone else talk about Him a thousand times the the sort of the Two main short-term things so sort of The most likely outcomes in the short Term are either you go straight to the 20we SMA following the habing or you get A bounce first to go just north of the 8 Week moving average and then you resolve To a a lower low in May um off of off of Whatever low this is you know so those Are the sort of the Two most likely shortterm outcomes to me Again I I don't know which one will play Out I I could certainly find evidence For both I will say you know with the S&P 500 at its own bull market support ban I I really do Wonder like well if if the S&P can go to it 20we SMA why can't Bitcoin you know I mean It's been a long time and with the S&P It had been really since November since It had been at its 20we SMA and now it's There once again and I wonder like you Know with Bitcoin what's to keep it from Going to its own 20we SMA it hasn't seen It since really mid October so if the S&P 500 can go there why can't Bitcoin In fact it's not even just the S&P if

You were to look at at eth you can see It's been wicking down to its 20we Moving average already you can see the Riskier assets are already hitting it um If you look at at total Three you can see that it's already been Wicking down to its bull market support Band so as you go you know further up The risk curve it's easier for those Assets to hit that 20we SMA because when Bitcoin sneezes the the the altcoin Market gets annihilated and you can see That I mean Bitcoin is still well above Its 20we moving average in fact I mean In fact for it to go to its 20we SMA it Would require about another 15 % drop From the current prices the problem with That for things like eth and and alts is That if Bitcoin were to do that then They likely go below their bull market Support bands and this is exactly what We saw in 2019 right we saw eth go below Its bull market support band after that Local top just after eth Bitcoin broke Down before Bitcoin did so that when Bitcoin bounced off of its 20we ese in The short term even didn't hold it as Support eventually it bounced off of it Ethusd basically just held resistance at The bull market support Band so I I do think there there's some Some reason to think it could play out Like that you know as much as there There very well could be sort of a

Relief into late April early May um just Keep an eye on on the 20we SME because You know the hard part with it is that You know you can look at at at prior Local tops right you can look at things Like 2021 and and 2019 and see that they Had these rallies back up to the 8-week Moving average on their first weekly Close below the 8we moving average right So the first weekly close below the 8we Right here in 2019 we rallied right back Above the 8we and then formed a lower High in 2021 right same type of thing Right go below the 8 we and then rally On back up the thing is is Like we could see a weekly close below The 8we but we haven't necessarily even Seen it yet also note that in 2019 after you had that rally back above The 8we it was after a 34% drop you know At this time Bitcoin has really only Dropped about the same amount that it Has been about 20% right I mean you know As much as it might feel like it's it's Been more brutal this time that's only Because the altcoin market is getting Hammered but that's what alts do best in You know when Bitcoin sneezes alts get Annihilated so you can see that so far This is a pretty standard drop for Bitcoin right 20% nothing too different from what We've seen um but do note that while it Is

20% the the rally back to the 8we SMA in 2019 occurred after it had gone down you Know closer to 30% which would actually Get you near that 20we moving average so It's really hard to say and and while it Is convenient of course to compare to 2019 and early 21 because you know I'm Sure everyone would like that rally back Up to the8 week SMA there's also other Examples uh like like 20 late 2021 where You get something like this where you You know you're putting in these weekly Closes where the Wicks are Lower right you can see that right the Wicks are lower there as well just like They were over here Um but you ended up just getting a Capitulation down right so there's no Guarantee right there's no guarantee With the market and I think like I I Think Honestly we're not going to you know Next week will be sort of the decision Point on on if you're going to bounce Off of it or not um this week I imagine It's not going to you know we're not Going to fully know I mean this you know It's already Friday anyways but yeah I I Think it's just I mean it's certainly Interesting because you're not only Looking at at Bitcoin sort of slowly Fading back in uh but you can see that a Lot of other markets are as well right Like the S&P is down to its bull market

Support band eth is down to its bull Market support band or at least it has Been wicking there it's not there at the Current moment but it has been for the Last couple of days off and on and then You have some altcoins that are below Their 20we SMA already right I mean um I'm sure a lot of them are right I don't Know if link is yeah link is Ada is Litecoin is not surprisingly madic is um Dot is I mean a lot of them are already Below their Market sport band so you can See that like the stronger assets are Still above it Bitcoin is still above it Right Now but you know I I look at these other Markets you know even the Russell the Russell is below it right so this is a Great example of how the S&P is at the 20 we but the Russell is below it so you Could see something happen very very Similar in crypto where Bitcoin goes to Its 20 we and when it does if and when It does then maybe alts go below it Right that could could very well play Out sometime after the having whether You get a rally to the 8we SMA or not Right and again I don't know um if we're Going to go to the 8 week ese next week Or if it's going to be like you know a Month later I could easily come up with A reason for either scenario easily Easily it it's going to depend on what Your bias is um so I I really I really

Can confidently say I don't know which One's going to play out but I will say That regardless of whether you get a Relief to the 8we or not my expectation Is that Bitcoin will go to the 20we Moving average within the next few weeks Right you know within probably either This month or next month is my guess I Mean it's been a long time right I mean It seems like we're due for it in 2019 You know it it took About 25 weeks you know something like That in you know 2020 or so all the way Through 2021 we fell back into it in in May in fact and that was about 32 weeks We're currently At what 26 weeks right so my guess is You know sometime in the next 6 weeks We're going to find ourselves at the Bull market support band and then we'll See what's up again my guess is that if If Bitcoin sort of chops around in this Range for a few months that's what Should send the Bitcoin dominance to 60% Right so if it goes down to the 20e Ese And then it bounces back up for a little Bit to the 8we ese or vice versa goes to The a week first and then goes to the 20 Week it's that chopping process that Should break the altcoin market down and I mean you can see it already happening You know with eth Bitcoin which is Something we've been following you know For a long time you know it's now at

0482 now it is you know talking about This sort of stuff on the the sort of The cusp of a major Bitcoin event you Know there could be counter Trend Rallies for this stuff but again you Know my guess is that eth Bitcoin is is Just sort of doing something like this After breaking down where it it sort of TR to hold on for a week but inevitably It keeps on bleeding into into the Summer months where maybe it finally can Potentially Bottom so that is my view here going Into into the having remember if there Is a larger drop in the crypto verse uh Following the having whether it's Immediately after or whether it's Delayed by a few weeks one thing to Remember right one thing that I I I Think you should remember is that when You measure things from the peak and you Go Peak to Peak Bitcoin is ahead of Schedule by a lot right it really is it Can afford to give back a lot of that And still be in line with prior Cycles We've said that forever this is why I've Said Bitcoin heavy crypto portfolio Because it's going to outperform the Altcoin marketing till QE Returns the Problem for alts you know I'll tell you The problem for alts is that if Bitcoin Just drops back down here to get back in Line with the prior Cycles just like Last cycle it dropped back in line to

Get to get back in line with its prior Cycle if Bitcoin drops here to get back In line with the last two cycles guess What alts can go back down to their lows Or they can put in new lows because They're not that far off of their lows To begin with whereas Bitcoin is right You know Bitcoin is already well off its Low whereas the alts a lot of them are Not now some of them are but a lot of Most of them are not really that far off Of their low so I mean you know if you See a situation where Bitcoin just Simply goes back to where it you know Where it was in the last two cycles at This point that's how the altcoin market Can put in you know a lot of alts can Put in new lows even in the having year And we saw that happen last cycle as Well and and I know there's always going To be some type of reason for it or Justification or rationalization but That is just what I've seen you know Cycle after cycle after cycle is that Alts can get that bounce in the prehab Year but inevitably as you get later on In the business cycle and we get you Know as the Market is really starting to Digest all those rate hikes and and the FED refusing to Pivot sufficiently That's where alts you know the order Books are thin and that's where they Just continue to slowly bleed uh not Only on their USD pairs but also their

Bitcoin Pairs and then my guess is that Once you start getting multiple weekly Closes by Bitcoin below its 20we moving Average I think there's a good chance That at that point Bitcoin dominance has Topped but between now and then I think That you're going to see it you're going To see Bitcoin USD sort of chop around In this range for a couple of months um And during that time I I think the Bitcoin dominance will go uh to 60% as Eth Bitcoin goes to 003 to 04 and and All Bitcoin pairs go all the way back Down from 0 42 to where they currently Are down to about .25 best case scenario and that's if you Want to say that they're oscillators Right so back down to 0.25 or so so that Is is really my view right now on the Market um there are also sort of other Views that you could look at that sort Of revolve around if it wants to follow Some of the prior you know the prior Trends with some major geopolitical Events we did see Bitcoin over here you Know put in some scary Wicks back in Early 2022 um and then they still swept the Local high after that so there is always A chance that something like that Happens as well um so Be ready for anything uh but I I do Think that the market would greatly Benefit from a a summer lull where it

Just kind of gets boring for a little While and all Bitcoin pairs are finally Allowed to bottom out that's what I Think would be the best case for the Cryptoverse is a a summer where all Bitcoin pairs are finally allowed to Bottom out because no one cares anymore You know all the hype is behind us and Then Then you start to see them find their True lows on their Bitcoin pairs you Know for everyone who is who's laughed At the idea of the devaluation of all Bitcoin pairs they just put in a new low Last week right they just put in a new New low last week so don't laugh at it I Mean this is just what happened last Cycle you know it's just exactly what Happened and and if they do come back Down here like over here then I I think There's no debating anymore that it it Really is following sort of what 2019 Was it's just that the reason why it was Delayed until the having year was Because rate Cuts occur potentially now In the having year as opposed to the Preh having year like last cycle so to Me it all looks like it's playing out in A very similar manner where all Bitcoin Pairs are putting in new lows just Before rate Cuts arrive the onset of Rate Cuts potentially as early as this Summer should allow a Bitcoin pairs to Bottom out and then a USD pairs can find

Whatever low they're going to find um Based on how how low Bitcoin goes and Then perhaps by the last rate cut uh Then you start to see it go the other Way the biggest Counterpoint to all These views is if it's a um you know if We just get some manic blowoff top or Something this summer uh following some Type of left translated cycle I mean you Could have a left translated cycle where The top is is March right I mean that's What happened in the dot crash right I Mean that the top was in March of the Election year that's not really my base Case though um but I I would say I would Say that if you are to get a left Translated cycle where Bitcoin just goes Parabolic into all the um into all the Bad news and everything then you know Then that would sort of invalidate the Views that I'm expressing um my base Case though is that we are just simply Repeating what we saw uh back over here And all Bitcoin pairs should come down As we get into this summer and and by You know maybe by June July something Like that I I could see all Bitcoin Pairs finally bottoming out not Withstanding Maybe some future Bitcoin Parabolic rally which we saw over here But that is is you know really my view On the market right now and we will see If it if it continues to pan out or not In the meantime bitcoin's at 64k um and

We'll see if it if it goes to the 20we Estimate in the next couple of weeks or If instead it first rallies back up to Just above or just around its 8we moving Average um uh first but either way I do Think we are due for a test of the Bullmark sport band here in the next you Know month month and a half if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and again check out the sale on into The crypts premium at intothe crypto.com We have tons of charts thousands of Different charts for a lot of different Cryptocurrencies if there's a lot of Cryptocurrencies that you have that you Wish I spoke about or you wish you could See the charts for those Cryptocurrencies we have a lot of them On the website you know a lot of people Call me a Bitcoin Maxi how many Bitcoin Maxis have website a website with Thousands of charts for altcoins right So I I'm not I just I I'm I I put my Maxi hat on when Bitcoin dominance is in A macro uptrend and I I don't really Think you should blame me for that um But do check it out links in the Description below that sale will end uh This weekend after the having so make Sure you lock in the low rate between Now and then and I will see you guys uh Hopefully tonight for the uh for the Live stream of the having which is only

A few hours from now but I can't make Any promises that I'll be there it's Going to depend on on how some uh some Of the family stuff goes but I will do My best to be there to live stream the Having anyways I'll see you guys next Time Bye