Bitcoin Halving 2024: Everything YOU Need To Know

Yeah I think the price will go up right I mean you you basically have a supply Shock to an asset today I sit down with Bitcoin expert Anthony pompliano and we Discuss everything you need to know for The upcoming Bitcoin having so think of This as your cheat sheet your ultimate Guide so you are prepared for what's Going to happen in 2024 and before we Talk about the price impact pump what is The Happening yeah the Bitcoin having Basically is approximately every four Years uh the Bitcoin reward which is the Amount of Bitcoin that's included uh for Miners when they mine the block uh of Transactions Gets cut in half and so start out it was 50 Bitcoin for about four years and then Went down to 25 Bitcoin then eventually Twelve and a half 6.25 where it is today Uh that translates to about 900 Bitcoin A day uh and it's going to get cut about 10 months from now to 3.25 or whatever it is 3.125 Um and it'll be about 450 Bitcoin per Day that will uh come out and so the Reason why that's important is it is Essentially a telegraphed change to the Monetary policy of Bitcoin um and so Unlike the Legacy Financial system where We don't know what the central bank is Going to do next week at least here we Know well out in advance years in Advance when and what is going to happen

To the monetary policy so it's pretty Crucial something that's very different For Bitcoin having versus gold mining is If people if gold is really being hyped Up in you know there's a lot of demand For gold people can just invest in more Gold miners and then that brings more Gold into the ecosystem dilutes the Supply Bitcoin is very different because No matter what the demand is Um you can only get a certain amount per Block could you go into that Yeah just think about the price of any Asset is determined by supply and demand Right went to an economics 101 course It's like the first thing they teach you And so when you think of supply and Demand usually they are both variable uh Components of that equation meaning that If you look at US Dollars how many Dollars are going to be in circulation Well if you looked at that in 2020 you Probably wouldn't have predicted that Trillions more dollars be put into the System in the next 18 to 24 months but Also at the end of 2021 you wouldn't Have thought that they were going to Drain liquidity and therefore the Central bank was going to take a Trillion dollars off their balance sheet So the supply ends up being very Variable demand obviously is variable as Well so sometimes people really want Something sometimes nobody wants

Something and so when you have two kind Of moving targets of supply and demand It becomes complex and difficult to Predict where is the equilibrium what is The price of that asset where is it Going to clear in the market from buyers To sellers the thing about Bitcoin is That the supply is fixed it is a Programmatic monetary policy meaning That from day one there was a monetary Policy that was written into software Code and that software code simply Executes based on the parameters and Instructions that it has and so part of That monetary policy is the total number Of Bitcoin that will ever be available 21 million Bitcoin a second component to That monetary policy is these havocs Going from 50 to 25 uh 12 and a half Etc And so the reason why it is important to Understand that there's a fixed supply Side of this equation is that you can Model out the supply give me a date and I can tell you how many Bitcoin are Going to be in circulation on that date Because I know what the monetary policy Is I can go in I can audit it with the Code now there is still a variable Demand side to the equation in the end Of 2021 a lot of people wanted Bitcoin So the price was really high at the end Of 2022 not so many people wanted Bitcoin that's why the price was low and So that variation still can create

Oscillation between the prices on kind Of Milestones of Bitcoin but it is much Easier to go ahead and model Out Future Bitcoin performance because at least 50 Of the equation the supply side is fixed And known and now we just have to worry About the demand side so that's really One of the the kind of benefits of Bitcoin and its monetary policy I look At charts of past bitcoin's havings and I see about 12 months after the having Occurs price goes up do you think this Will have a price impact It has to have a price impact right Whether it is uh up 500 percent 20 or Down 20 it has to have an impact and so There's this belief in traditional Finance of the efficient market Hypothesis which is complete uh The fact that someone won a prize for This is like laughable the theory is That when everyone has the same Information the market prices that Information correctly and therefore the Market is quote unquote efficient right Everyone is acting on the same Information and therefore everyone then Creates this kind of efficient price or Or kind of equilibrium By Nature that is a falsifiable kind of Statement when I tell you if I give you And I the same exact amount of Information and then I ask you what's Going to happen and you think it's good

For the asset and I think it's bad for The asset How can there be an efficient Market how can it be even if we have the Exact same of information we come to Different conclusions of course there's No efficient market the whole point of a Market is that is inefficient there's Opportunities for buyers and sellers to Come together Express their view in the Market and to take Financial positions To benefit from those opinions becoming Reality and so if there was an efficient Market then we wouldn't have a need for Investors or any sort of market clearing Type activity and so the reason why I Start with this like you know kind of Destruction of the efficient market Hypothesis is because when you look at The Bitcoin having even if 100 of people Knew what the Bitcoin having was and 100 Of people knew when it was going to Happen there still would be some subset Of people who thought that it was Bullish some subset of people who Thought it was bearish and some some set Of people who thought it was agnostic They didn't care either direction and so Those people take different positions in The market to express their view or Their opinion and therefore that has an Impact on price now does it go up does It go down that's anyone's guess when Does it go up when does it go down Anyone's guess and one of the things

That we've seen in the past is there's Been kind of a buy the rumor sell the News around the having leading into the Having price kind of runs up having Happens price doesn't explode Immediately so kind of draws down a Little bit goes sideways and then to Your point 9 12 15 months later then the Price seems to go up quite a bit and so It's interesting to me because when you Look at that through the efficient Market hypothesis you're like man this Doesn't make any sense if everyone knows That the Bitcoin having is going to Happen then you would expect everyone to Act the same way but in my opinion it Just simply proves the fact that markets Are inefficient and that is where Opportunity exists you wouldn't invest In a market that was fully efficient Because there would be no returns to be Kind of gained or captured and therefore The Bitcoin having has to have an impact On price and it has to have different People taking different positions and so When that occurs anyone who tells you The Bitcoin having doesn't matter just Doesn't understand how markets work There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin in existence ever yet the last Bitcoin won't be mined for over 100 Years So what happens like what changes after That last Bitcoin is mined

Well from a practical standpoint anyone Who's watching this right now in 2023 You should just stop thinking about it Because you're going to be dead uh but Let's say that for people who are Watching this 100 years from now uh the Current belief is that the transactions Uh uh fee for the Bitcoin network will Be enough to economically incentivize The miners to continue to mine uh the Network to continue to help uh Contribute their competing power secure The network Etc Um there has been a subset of people who Disagree with that they are critics they Say that is not going to be true Recently with the rise of inscriptions And ordinals we saw for the first time Ever that the fee Revenue that miners Were able to capture outpaced the block Reward and so this kind of proved the Point that yes even now today while There still is a block reward we can Have fees Spike high enough where Actually miners can make more money from The fees rather than they can from the Block reward so again who knows what's Going to happen I have no clue trying to Predict what's going to happen in six Months or a year from now is hard enough Trying to understand what's going to Happen in 100 and you know 17 years or Whatever it is is even harder you're not Gonna have to worry about it so I

Wouldn't spend too much time on it but For those people who are living at that Point that's the current belief is that Simply the transaction fees will be Enough to incentivize people to continue To mine Bitcoin How come nobody cares about the Litecoin Having that's happening this year maybe Traders do because price is increasing Against the US dollar a little what are Your thoughts Yeah I mean look I think a lot of people Uh specifically in this industry uh they Have over time become hardened to the Idea uh there's this big universe out There now in the cryptocurrency space And so I don't know there's twenty Thousand twenty five thousand different Coins that you could go and look at but So same thing as in the traditional Financial system if you simply are able To focus and you're able to understand Okay this specific thing I want to get Really really well educated on I want to Really understand it they don't have a Lot of time to look at other things Right and that's why you see uh you know Back in 2017 2018 if you went you talk To an investment uh kind of organization Or trading organization they had like One person who covered you know five or Seven different areas of the industry or Maybe they have you know two total People on the team they could cover the

Whole industry today that's not possible You have Bitcoin you have D5 you have Nfts you have you know all the gaming Stuff like you can just go through There's so many different components to The industry that you can't have one Person cover everything and so that's Where you start to get kind of Specialization Within These investment Firms and you you start to actually even Get you know let's say a Bitcoin team or An nft team or a smart contract team or However they want to kind of organize What I do think is happening when it Comes to Litecoin or any other coin it's Just there's only so much bandwidth People have and so what occurs is that Bitcoin is the largest market it's the Most liquid Market it's the one the Institution seemed the most interested In it's the one that seems to have Gotten through the regulatory threshold And everyone agrees it's not a security And so naturally that's where a lot of Attention is going to go because it has The most liquidity and the most Certainty and therefore that allows for People really to focus on it and deploy Capital into the market In our final five six minutes I want to Expand more to macro but just because I Want this to be a everything you need to Know video about the Bitcoin having just Like in summation could you address to

Those average people what to expect for The 2024 Bitcoin having Yeah I think the price will go up right I mean you you basically have a supply Shock to an asset you have something That right now 900 Bitcoin per day come Into the market and the price has been Going up in the last couple of weeks Which means that there are more buyers Than there are sellers if there's more Buyers that is net new demand into the Market and they're eating up not only The 900 Bitcoin that is being put into The market every day but they're also uh There's more demand than that and so They're having to buy coins from people Who already have Bitcoin and that's Where you get the price continuing to go Up well if all of a sudden you go from 900 Bitcoin a day to 450 Bitcoin a day That Supply shock cutting in half of the Incoming daily Supply obviously if the Demand stays the same not even increases Just stays the same then you are going To have the price go up over time Because there's less Bitcoin coming into The market every day for the same amount Of people who want that Bitcoin again Supply demand economics 101. now what is Interesting about the Bitcoin having Also is as we get closer the media Starts getting louder they begin to talk About it they begin to say oh we're 10 Days away oh we're four days away they

Go and they get a bunch of Talking Heads All chirping about what they think is Going to happen they have people come on YouTube and podcasts and Twitter Etc and Everyone starts talking about what's Going to happen what's going to happen That's all marketing for Bitcoin right Is talking about the having is marketing For Bitcoin and so naturally demand Increases around these events because More people hear about Bitcoin they're Like oh that didn't die I thought that Was dead a couple years ago let me go Check that out and so that increases the Demand and so you have a supply shock We're getting a 50 cut of the daily Incoming Supply but you also get this uh Demand shock where there is more Incoming demand every single day and That leads to cut the supply in half Increase the demand price goes up over Time I want to remind the audience links for Pomp Twitter everything down below in The video description check it out macro Wise pomp are we in for a deeper Recession what are your thoughts for the Second half of this year Yeah I mean it's kind of weird right Like we had a recession and then they Just like disqualified it it was like You know the experts came in and they're Like no two quarters of negative GDP Growth that's not a recession it's a

Recession when we say it's a recession Which is kind of like a ridiculous thing So like some people would argue like we Already were in the recession uh other People would look and say well look at The consumer the consumer has you know These really great things labor Market's Tight um there's kind of all these uh Bullish you know signals or metrics that Folks look at whether it is actually Classified as a recession or not I think Is less important what I do think is Important is that there is very much a Subset of the population who's going to Experience greater Financial pain at the Expense of another part of the Population so if you go back and you Look over 2020 into 2021 what happened Was people with investable assets got Richer right all those asset prices Exploded higher those were all the the Kind of bull markets and the bubbles Etc That formed but the people who live Paycheck to paycheck and had 100 of Their wealth in cash they actually got Punished right right they lost Purchasing power they got the erosion of Their savings and so you had this Bifurcation in society many people will Point to the income inequality is kind Of the product of that bifurcation That's been happening what I think we're Seeing happen right now is the exact Same thing where you're going to have

Kind of the bottom half of uh the you Know uh kind of economic ladder they are Going to continue to receive more and More financial pain at the same time You're going to see the investment class Continue to gain more and more wealth The NASDAQ is up 32 percent to start the Year Bitcoins up 85 percent to start the Year these are Big Numbers regardless of Whether they're already drawn down a lot Or not what you are seeing is double Digit returns in the first half of this Year and so usually if you get some sort Of big jump in the beginning of the year In these financial markets for the year They will end up now not always but Usually they will end up for the year And that would suggest that people with Investment assets will do better than People who don't have investable assets And so I think you get kind of a Bifurcation and even if it is a official Recession or not the bottom half of the Economic ladder is going to continue to Feel a lot of pain unfortunately You personally you're all Bitcoin you're Holding forever but you do have a Investment fund there's an investment Arm of the entity that is pump how have You uh changed how have you positioned Yourself personally for the end of the Year or what's one change you've made No change really I bought some more Bitcoin earlier this year uh I tend to

Think that you know it was undervalued Just because it had crashed so much Um and in the past buying it kind of you Know near bottoms of bear markets seem To be uh pretty good and work out and so Uh that was really the only thing that I Did in kind of the Bitcoin uh space Outside of that I've been doing a lot of Investing in early stage Venture Capital Uh building a lot of businesses stuff Like that but in uh Bitcoin specifically Uh I don't know if it's necessarily A Change just you know bought more Bitcoin Final question to you and this has Nothing to do with Bitcoin uh just it Has to do with you more life advice Finish the sentence I became successful When I understood blank It's all on you You either succeed or you fail based on Your actions and uh there's a lot of People who believe in luck uh but as We've seen over and over again in the Research luck is not real uh when you Walk across the street and you get hit By a car and I do the same thing and I Get hit by a car and let's say we both Lose our legs you may say to yourself Man I was really unlucky to be walking Across the street right now and now I Lost both my legs but when I walk across The street and I lose both my legs I may Say man I'm really lucky to be alive and So luck is this psychological concept

It's all about our opinion uh and our Reaction to events that occur but what Most people confuse is probability and Luck probability is a mathematical Equation what's the probability that You'd be walking across the street at The exact same time a car was going to Come and it was going to hit you and so By understanding that luck is not real Then you can say okay well what will Determine my outcome if it's not luck And it's your actions your decisions and So the beauty of that is it's on you if You bet on yourself you can make the Right decisions if you go and you do the Right thing things that you can create a Better life and a better opportunity for Yourself the downside to that is you Can't just sit back and you know cross Your fingers and hope that you know the The uh great luck God is going to smile Down on you and so you got to do work You gotta make those decisions and so Once you start to understand like you're In control of your future I tend to Think that people really focus uh they Start to increase their chances of Success and what I've seen over and over Again is that they end up actually Realizing whatever their dreams are I love it links for your stuff down Below thanks Okay

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