Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Provide an update to the bull market Support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Check out the sale on into the Crypt Premium at intothe cryptoverse decom as Of this week the week of March 3 we are Now looking at the 20we SMA coming out At around 44.1k the 21 we at around 44.9 Actually close to 45 the really ranges Between 44 to 45k which I mean again Like it it sounds somewhat absurd Because that's like a full $20,000 Almost below the current price is it not Right I mean we're almost at 64k and the 2m SMA is at 44k so we're Legitimately Above It by about $20,000 And beyond that the extension from it Right is is certainly has certainly Continued to go up right if we just look At it from last week we were about 50% Extended um so it has certainly been Been getting somewhat extended there if You were to take a look at say the um The short-term bubble risk which again Is the extension from the 20we moving Average right you can see that we've Actually exceeded the the two extensions From March of 2023 and from December of 2023 right so this local top there on on Or at least so so far right the

Extension from the 2week SMA took us all Up to about 50% above it right and again if you go If you roll back the Clock this is we haven't been this far Extended from the 20we ASA really since April of 2021 right it's been a long Time since we've seen that sort of that Full extension go above really I guess Go above you know 42 42% or so right so certainly things Are more heated now in terms of Extension from this moving average since They've really been since April of 2021 And so I wanted to sort of touch based On how long has it been since we even Checked in with a 20we moving average We've talked a lot about that about how You you typically go check in with it Every few months um if you go longer Than a few months the odds that you hold It whenever you test it in the sort of The nebulous future aren't as great Doesn't mean that it can't happen but Looking at looking at where it is right Now we're currently at about 20 weeks Right And previously you know in this part of The trend over here we were testing it Every you know this was eight weeks here It was about 11 weeks and then here it Was after you know about 8 weeks again We were testing it every two to three Months now right we're going on about

Five months now the last time we tested It was actually back in October um and So it's always worthwhile to sort of go Compare to Prior instances of it and and Um and kind of how long has it you know Had it been and you know first thing you Could look at is maybe the 2015 2016 2017 bull market and and see that from There there were some periods where we Went about 15 weeks or so um here's Another example of about 10 weeks um Here's an example where it took about 12 Right but they're all in that like three To four month range right three to four Month range um and then eventually you Got a move here that took 15 weeks weeks Right still about four months or so um And then another one that took about 8 Weeks but and then finally you had one That Took 18 weeks right so once it went Beyond like that four month time frame Um we were and then when we when we back Tested or when we retested it we just Were unable to hold it right as we got More and more parabolic and again the Same thing in 2019 right like we didn't Test it really at all and when we Finally did test it it was 24 weeks Later I mean you know that's that's Quite a long time I mean you're talking About half a year right I mean that was A long time to go 24 weeks which by the Way is still um you know if you look at

At what happened right here when we left The 20we moving average in September of 2020 it took 33 weeks which was even Longer for the 2019 rallies right so you Had 24 weeks there before going back to The 20 we here you had 33 weeks And as a reminder we're currently right Now we are at 20 weeks Right in this case while it took 24 Weeks to get back to it we actually Topped out after only 12 in this case While it took 33 weeks to get back to it We topped out after around 29 so it just Gives you an idea right it gives you an Idea of what we've historically seen With a 20we moving average um and and What sort of that implies for sort sort Of the the nebulous future whenever that May be remember in 2021 we EXT we stayed Extended above the 20we estimate 4 Months before we finally cooled off Right and so that's why I just want to You know continue to remind ourselves That at some point we'll have to check Back in with it and the longer it takes To check back in with it perhaps it'll Just make the task that much more Difficult right of of holding if we just Simply haven't tested it in longer Period of time and again that doesn't Necessarily mean like Doom um you know Over here once we failed to hold it we We ended up coming right back up but it Is just something to think about right

Like it has been has been about 20 weeks We've been following it more or less Every week or so it's been 20 weeks now Maybe you could argue we're still in the Window um that it's not that you know It's still not too far out but the Problem is that even even when this Stuff you know as it plays out it can Take weeks and weeks and weeks weeks to Sort of to get back down to those levels Um so that's something to think about And um and you know we'll see I we'll See what what Bitcoin can do here you Can see it is actually pretty close um To the highs it's still I don't think it Has taken out it hasn't taken out this First Peak over here still hasn't taken Out that one yet in terms of thinking About like what eth Bitcoin did back During the merge rally remember it took Out the first Peak um didn't take out The second one but at least did take out The first one going back into the merge Rally and and we've talked a lot about You know dominance of Bitcoin and ALT Bitcoin Pairs and and how liquidity Flows from the altcoin market over to Bitcoin and that that that liquidity From alts is like fuel for Bitcoin at Some point all Bitcoin pairs break down And they don't necessarily provide as Much f as much fuel to bitcoin um but we Are we are coming into you know into These these higher levels that we had

Back in 20 21 this sort of provided us With a wall um and and we'll see you Know the reaction by Bitcoin and I think It's funny that it's you know as Bitcoin Approaches the highs dominance Approaches potentially 56% which is the Level we talked about for a long time e Bitcoin you know could be going back Down to the range lows that are on 049 All Bitcoin pairs continuing to slowly Bleed um so just seems like a lot of Things are are are potentially playing Out and um worthwhile to to uh keep an Eye on so again in order for us to even Get back to 20we ese right now it would You know Bitcoin would have to drop Quite a bit um and I I I do think the Short-term bubble risk chart is a great Way to sort of Visualize the extension from it and and Kind of also see what's possible Right Like you know to see how high we went in 2019 and 2021 and 2017 right just kind Of see how high those extension Ultimately went before before Bitcoin Eventually faded back um to the downside And we could always pull up other moving Averages as well um you know typically If we're going to do that it it makes More sense to maybe go over to the some Of the daily moving averages like you Got like the um the 100 day moving Average we talked a lot about this kind Of emulating essentially the move from a

Year before right where you know we we Had this sort of this 20% correction Into the 100 days moving average right That's that's essentially what happened Back over there a 21% drop into the 100 Day and then a pop up into new highs Right this was the same thing right About a 21% drop into that 100 day Moving average and then you get sort of This first impulsive move and then it Goes sideways and then you get another Move up after that right you get this Impulsive move and then it goes sideways And then you get another move up after That which is arguably the move that We're currently in um but again like That is playing out almost identically To what it did over there and once it Hit the 100 day right from that from That point It ultimately rallied about 58% from this low right Bitcoin has gone Up a little bit more right it's actually Gone up about 64% but again a very Similar pattern um when you look at that The the 100 day moving average the 200 Day we haven't even you know we haven't Even visited since we left the bullmark Square pan really in in October um so That's still much further down there's The 50-day which you know our Relationship with the 50 days is is Quite a bit different and and it than The 100 day and very similar patterns Right you we we sort of get these drops

Below it you know like these 15 10 15 These are all 15% drops here it was About a a a 10% drop maybe 11% drop um And then just rallied on back up so the 50-day SMA right now is at around 48k Right which again that would actually Correspond also um getting close to Where the bull marks were bers right Again the bull Mark we bands all the way At 44 um but it is it's not too far away From it but anyways that's where we are Right now with Bitcoin um we obviously Threw in a touch of of Bitcoin dominance And all Bitcoin Pairs and each Bitcoin Because all that's relevant and and I Think provides fuel uh provides Liquidity for Bitcoin and and I think The thing to look for is do those things You know do all Bitcoin pairs break down Does Bitcoin dominance break out out um Does eth Bitcoin break down we've talked About this forever how it's these Bitcoin rallies that break those things Down and that's exactly what we've seen You know over the last year and a half Or so um so we'll see you know we'll see If that continues anyways if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and again check out the sale on Intothe cryptoverse premium at inth [Music] Crypt.of I'll see you guys next time bye


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