Tesla Outlook

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the equity verse today we're going To talk about Tesla and we're going to Be providing a General Market Outlook if You guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out the sale On intothe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse Got wrong and reflect on that and talked About talk about you know things that Went my way um at at various points and Then I just I I want to talk about my my Current views on Tesla and and what I Really think about its Outlook over the Next few years okay so I'm going to go Through this as systematically as I can Try to cover all bases and um we'll just Take from there so back in in 2017 2018 2019 you know my view on Tesla was that It was undervalued okay I I you know I Was very optimistic about Tesla's future Back over here and I thought it was only A matter of time before we got a larger Move to the upside in Tesla okay the Move that eventually came exceeded all Of my prior expectations you know I Would have just I mean if you look at at This move here from July 2010 to to this High that was a 2300 per move imagine Telling someone that we would exceed That right from this low here to that High was a 41 100% Move so the move by Tesla far exceeded

My expectations right I did not think it Was going to go as high as this and I I Certainly became increasingly cautious On it as it as it climbed this entire You know this entire move okay and in Early 2022 when it was apparent that we Were going into a bare market right the S&P I'm not I mean not Tesla Specifically but the S&P when it became Increasingly apparent that we were going Into a a bare Market I was very bearish On Tesla very bearish on it and for a While that bearishness was in fact Rewarded we had a series of lower highs That so many people remained bullish on Because they were still living in this Move right they were still living in the In the by the dip you know by the dip Mentality it's going to go to new All-time highs immediately right and What ended up happening is the asset Then Dropped 75% almost 7 6% so a 76% drop and you Know there's a lot of people that were In the in the sort of the buy the dip Mode now the first thing I will say Before we get too much further into this Video is you know there's there's Definitely two types of people I think When it comes to to Tesla um there well I mean there's there's two of the most Common types are Perma bears and Perma Bulls over long per periods of time in

The stock market while both can be Rewarded at various Phases it it's better to be bullish over A long period of time right if you can Weather 70 to 80% moves to the downside Then in general for the stock market It's better to be a Perma bull than a Perma Bear right it's okay to be Cautious but that's you know it sort of Goes back to the saying of um you know The Bears sound smart the Bulls make Money but I I want to talk about this Draw down by Tesla and talk about Whether this is the low here right like The the current drop is that the final Low um or do we take out this Low or do we take out that Low so again to Recap I was fairly optimistic on Tesla Back over here it then far exceeded my Expectations I became very bearish on it Very very bearish on it and I was Looking at a potential 77% Drop at least at least I did a video on It Tesla a textbook Bubble and at the time Tesla was 122 and in this video I put out you know Two potential targets I believe from Memory um I I said that you know the First sort of Target would be about a 77% drop the reason that I arrived at at A 77% drop one of the reasons was Because I mean if you go look at at at Bitcoin

Bitcoin had a a 77% Drop I say well so what well Netflix Also had a 77% Drop right 77% I mean if I if I actually get you Know the exact top or so I mean it's 76.9 6% or so so what Meta 76% Drop so almost 77% right almost 77% drop So I was looking around I'm like well Look I mean you got you got meta that's Already dropped 77% you had Netflix that Dropped 77% bit coin dropped 77% it Seems like it's possible that Tesla Could drop 77% and So what I did was in this video we sort Of Drew out where where that price would Be if it dropped around 77% and it was Just below $100 right just below $100 And so that was sort of an initial an Initial price target of hey it's Possible that this thing could drop to Less than $100 now at the time I was definitely Living off of a high because I you know I really liked Tesla but I was very Bearish on it after watching this 4,000% Rally and also throughout this entire Bare Market saying look it's going to Keep going down and saying look okay Maybe it goes down about 77% now what's Interesting is it did Drop almost that but not quite

75% 75 and a half% or so um so it you Know it didn't make it 76% and it didn't make it 77% which is What some of the other ones did right so It you know the other stocks that we Were looking at and even even Bitcoin Went down about 77% and so for me I was Looking at it thinking hey what if Tesla Goes down the same amount then it would Put it at just below $100 and then I Think I put out a worst case out outcome Of of of in the 60s right that's what I Did I mean the receipts are there yes I Mean I I could try to hide behind it and Pretend like the video doesn't exist but The the video does exist and you know as An investor i' I'd prefer to try to like Learn from my mistakes than than hide Behind them and pretend like they didn't Happen I I think one thing that is is That that that can be frustrating with You know being a sort of a a for lack of A better word content creator um Especially in the in sort of the Financial space I think one of the hard Parts is that everyone sort of pits Themselves against each other and and They sort of like you know for bragging Rights and and and dunking you know Dunking rights my sort of view that I've I've tried to adapt over the over the Last few years which I'm not always Successful at is you know don't dunk on Others lest you be dunked on because

Often times when you get to the point Where you want to dunk on someone else For having the wrong view that's usually The time when you should be shifting Your own view right it's you know it it Happens constantly with investing where Like you have a view it turns out to be Right and then you want to go dunk on Other people but rather than wasting Your time dunking on other people for Being right you should just be changing Your own view to you know to Pro to Provide an example I mean you know I was Very bearish on Tesla throughout all of These lower highs right all these lower Highs and and then when I watched it Finally drop to that 77% Target I was Sorry I didn't mean to pull up that one I was very very happy because I'm like Look I was right it made sense to be Bearish on this thing and and it could Go less than $100 and it felt like I was you know I Was Um you know I I I basically could say Look it was not wrong to to scoff at the Idea of buying these dips over here the Problem here's the issue with you know With investing and especially being a Content creator in the space is that Despite the fact that all of these are Lower highs and unfortunately these are Still lower highs and there's no Guarantee that the that the trend

Changes but despite that the people that Remained perable throughout this entire Phase they're going to act like they Were right right because it's you know It's off the Lows right it's off the lows by about 100% right of course the problem is they Were also buying it throughout this Entire phase and so yes while it's off The Lows it's it's one of those things where You Know a lot of those positions are are Still likely underwater but again with Investing you you you shouldn't spend Too much your time worrying about what Other people think um and what their Views are just look at the bigger Picture I think that's what makes sense Look at the bigger picture and then see What's happened so far Tesla has been Putting in lower Highs but this is also A significant Low I don't know if we're going to take Out that low the problem is that I like Tesla as a you know as a as a company I Think it is the Blue Chip EV stock right I mean if you think about like all the EV I think Tesla is the Blue Chip it's like It's like the uh Bitcoin of the Cryptoverse right so like Bitcoin is the Blue Chip of the cryptoverse Tesla's the Blue Chip of of

EVs and you know I I found myself in a Position over the last several years Where I used to be bullish on it over Here and then I watched this happen and It and it's just been really hard you Know to to to not look for sort of the Bearish View Um but I also you know I also don't want To be you know feel like I I I can't Speak up about my mind on Tesla just Because it it bottomed out here 1% Higher than than the target you know the Initial Target that I set um you know That video that I made at 122 was here And I said all right you know the sort Of the initial Target would be around The high 90s and you can see that it it Basically found down a low at at just Above that the 100s one lesson is that Sometimes it's close enough right Sometimes it's close enough it doesn't Have to be exact you know if you're Buying an if you're buying an equity 77 75 76% off the low like meta like neet Like Netflix whatever as long as you Think that company's going to survive it Makes sense for the record on ITC Premium I was very bullish on meta at 77% down and the reason was because I Had I just watched Netflix do the same Same type of move so like look at Netflix Netflix made that 77% drop so I Was watching meta make that same drop

And then I I you know I put out a lot of Telegram posts on the ITC premium stuff When it was below a 100 and saying look Guys this is a great opportunity to get Into meta right anything below $100 is Extremely valuable extreme value so I Was hoping to make that same sort of an Announcement with Tesla and and it Didn't it didn't hit that 77% Threshold that's my own mistake right That's my own mistake um I think that You know it would have been just like You know after it's 75% down or even Hell 70% down you know it would have Been okay to say you know from this Point while it could go lower it Probably won't go too much Lower So that's sort of my view on on You know how I in the future I think it Would make sense to sort of view these Larger draw Downs is that when you get Like these larger moves to the Downside to not you know to not get so Worked up over whether it goes 76% down Or if it's 77% down right because then You know the people that were you know That were bullish on it throughout this Entire phase will claim that they're Right even though it's still lower than Literally every every single one of These lower highs right but they'll Still act like that was the right view To have and it's just not a fun it's not

A fun experience right you know to sort Of go through that so I I want to talk Now sort of now that we've gotten that Out of the way and now that I've sort of Raised my hand to say look Um to put out a target of just below 100 And and potentially as low as 60 was you Know probably not the best way that I Should have handled that I mean I you Know I think I should have just said hey While it could go down to 77% Down is it worth is it worth waiting for That might have been a better way to Handle it now that brings us to sort of Today like where are we today and and And what does that mean you know does it Mean that we we can't take out the low Or could we take out the low and and I Just want to provide some thoughts onto That I think there's sort of two Outcomes here right and I don't think I Mean I don't think these outcomes are Are should be that surprising I think The first outcome is that if we don't go Into a recession then I think this is The low right so if a recession is Avoided then I think the low is in for Tesla if a recession is not Avoided then we could certainly go to That Low and it would it would in fact be Interesting if at the end of the day we Ended up going 77% down but it just took A lot longer right like I mean you know

Like if it if it still went that 77% Drop but it just took a little bit Longer to get there and it would take a Recession I think to get there I don't Think it will go to less than 100 I mean It looks like it went to 101 81 right I Don't think it's going to go sub 100 Unless you get a Recession so if a recession Comes good chance Tesla takes out the Low the problem with with some of these You know with some of these stocks like This is that you know if a re recession Happens then you know these other stocks That are already so much higher like Netflix I mean it's so high that even if It were to drop from here I mean even if It were to drop 60% it's still putting In a higher low right and there's no Guarantee that it's going to do anything Like that right like even if meta were To drop 50% it's still a much higher low Or if it dropped say you know 30% right But I mean even in a in even like in a In a you know recession recessionary Environment if it were to drop 50% that's still a higher low and that Was what I told people on ITC premium With meta back when it was sub 100 is That this is likely the low regardless Because it's so far down it went that 77% drop it's probably the low the Regardless so even if you do get a Recession things like meta would likely

Just put in a higher low the problem for Other assets like Tesla is that if a Recession occurs Before it gets a larger move to the Upside then a 50% drop would put it at That 77% draw down Target right that's Where it would put it so I I think it's Relevant to keep that in mind that like That could happen and I I I I think it's It's foolish to say that it can't happen But I'll also say it's foolish to say That it has to happen okay I'm of the Opinion that if it does happen it would Be a great Opportunity but there's no guarantee That it does and we don't have a ton of History to go on for Tesla but there is A similar type of move once upon a time Where it had a larger move to the upside And you can even see there was these Levels that it tried holding and there Was one Wick below It right and you can see that throughout This entire phase on either side of this Wick it tested this level here right This level right Here and so I do wonder if we're Repeating a similar type of Thing Right where you test these lows right You you have a major impulsive move to The upside and following that you you Sort of set a floor and then you go in And you capitulate below it at some

Point Just like we did right Here and then you continue to test that Floor for a While and then eventually you get Another move up now if Tesla were to Follow that Pattern then what it would look like Right I if we just sort Of overlay It what that could mean would be you Know this this move here started in in Like late 2016 and then it found a you Know found this High here about half a Year later so what it could mean is you Know Finding support around here and Then bouncing up to slightly new Highs Coming all the way back down and Retesting this low again you know I this Occurred you know three to you know About three years later um so that would Be like you know testing it in like 2027 As crazy as that sounds um and then Going up that's essentially what it Would look like if we were to emulate That move right basically you know Hanging out in here for a while and then Eventually moving back Up this low here occurred during a Recession scare we did not actually get A recession in February 2016 but it was A recession scare and so I don't know I Mean I I look we have an inverted yield Curve we we've got all the signs that

The labor market is slowly softening up But there's also a chance that the FED Pivots before Things get too bad maybe they pivot too Late and we do go into a recession and In that case Tesla could take out that Low but you know I just want to be like Open and honest I mean I I used to be Very very bullish on Tesla back when it Was you know in 2017 2018 and 2019 Before this 4,000% move um I was very Bearish on it in 2022 I was also pretty Bearish on it even in sort of the parts Of 2021 I mean we still had this major Move up I mean this really I think Through most of 2021 I I wasn't that Optimistic on it I felt like the larger Part of the move was behind us than it Was I mean we did go about 40% higher if Memory serves me correct yeah about 40% Higher but I mean if you're if you're Sitting on gains of like several Thousand perc I don't that's where People don't care as much and that's the Hard part is that like you you have some People that get in over here and they're Happy to just kind of sit out after it's Up 2,000% you get the late people that Come in that buy it up here and they get Super loud when it goes up another 40% You're like well okay fine I missed out On a 40% move but so what I I still Realized a 2,000% move and to be Completely honest and transparent I do

Have a Tesla position that I held Throughout this entire thing right I Mean I I have you know some that I've Held throughout the entire thing Throughout the entire 76% draw down and Everything I do have some but in terms Of you know looking to get larger Positions um I you know I hadn't been on The lookout for that right because I was Looking I was looking at meta Netflix And saying all right 77% down that's the Target and then we ended up bottoming Out at like 75 and a half% down and so Kind of a an element of of watching The Market get Close not hit the target but I think you Know maybe it was close enough right Maybe it was close enough so from Here one thing to consider is that after A lot of these earnings Reports Tesla has bounced after getting A a 10% drop right so I think this is Now four earnings in a row where Following earnings Tesla has dropped 10% and and then after that there's been Some form of of mean reversion right There's been some form of mean reversion And um you know whether it is just a a Smaller bounce back up to you know Basically where we are now we've seen That maybe a little bit higher or Whether it was a a larger bounce up to You know the mid2 200s this bounce here Actually took you to new highs um all

Sorts of bounces that we've gotten off Of these lows right some have been Smaller right some have Been 40% move this was a 130% move this One here was about a 10% move um and Then so far this one has been about a a 10% move so I I think when you look at It like that you have to think well I Mean it's you know it's it's Relatively um you know there's a chance That there's some form of mean reversion Right where regardless of whether we Break the Integrity of this low there Could be some form of mean reversion Just like there was back in late 2022 right and just like there was in in May of 2021 and just like there was in March of 2021 right there could be some Form of mean reversion and one way to Maybe visualize that is to go look at The relative strength index of Tesla and You can in fact see that on the daily it Hit the same level that it hit during The crash in December of 2022 right the daily RSI hit that same Level so that's why I'm saying like you Know there there there can always be This sort of this mean reversion play um That could that could play out before You figure out what the actual move is Going to be right whether it's a move Back higher into the mid into the into The high 200s or whether you you go back Down and you you sort of break the

Integrity this low again A lot of times There's some form of of mean Reversion So I think the way that I'm I'm viewing Tesla right now Is if no if no if soft Landing right if If we achieve a soft Landing then this Is probably the Low if we have a hard Landing then we Could easily test the Integrity of that Low I can't possibly know if it's going To be a soft Landing or hard Landing There's there's evidence to support both Cases right I mean there's there's there Are prior cases where you have soft Landings um 1967 is one but even in that Case you know we ended up getting a hard Landing two years later but still I mean It was an example of a soft landing and For investment time frames you know two Years a long Time there have been soft Landings that Have been achieved even I think of the Mid 1990s I think they've you know you Could look at it and say some soft Landings were achieved um even after or Maybe the late 1990s even after a Briefly inverted yield curve so I think You know I think you if you if if a soft Landing is achieved then that could be The Low if we have a hard Landing then maybe It just goes down to that 7 7% level Which is just slightly below that low

Right so I don't really know I mean I Don't really know which one of those is Going to play out but I will say that I I I want to be you know I want I want to Be more open-minded so That I I can I feel like I can talk About Tesla in the future rather than Just you know waiting to see if it ever Comes back down to this low I don't know If it's going to right I really don't I Mean um This low here was actually tested in or This low here was put in in in q1 of the Election year which is where we are Right now right it's q1 of the election Year um so you could you could look at It like this and say all right that Capitulation corresponds to that one or Maybe you know maybe there's some type Of of low put in this quarter if you Were to go look at at say um so on into The Crypt verse premium we have an Equity Tab and you can actually filter By equities you have Tesla if you go Look at say the year-to-date Roi of Tesla in say 2024 compared to 2012 you Can see that we dip early on and then we Get a bounce look at it 2016 we dipped Early on and then we got a bounce and in 2016 it actually dipped even further Down right about 40% down off the yearly Open which is exactly what you're Looking at right there right so 40% down Off the yearly open for Tesla would be

Approximately in the 150s okay now I Know what you're saying well I mean You're saying well what about the daily RSI you just showed that it was Basically oversold that's true I mean it It it is um the Counterpoint of course Is that major crashes can also happen From oversold Levels by Major crashes Can happen from oversold levels so I Think that while it is possible that we Take out the low if if we get a hard Landing um I don't think it makes sense To like basically bet everything on that Idea okay because it might not happen This could be the low here like we could Be putting in the low here if it wants To follow 2016 maybe it goes into the uh Into the 150s and then puts in say like A slightly higher low there's that Chance of of occurring as well or worst Case scenario we we test the Integrity Of that low right there under a hard Landing it's possible that you could Test that that the problem for me as you Know as as someone who likes to talk About assets the problem is that you Know I want to be able to talk about Tesla even if we don't take out that low And just say you know I mean I I should Have been more willing to flip Then rather than you know rather than Just sort of watch this move on F again I can rationalize it in my own mind by Saying well I mean look I mean you know

It's not like being bearish on it Throughout these highs has paid or being Bullish on it throughout these highs has Paid off we have Tesla has not reclaimed Those highs it has not um I mean we came Pretty close but we have not reclaimed Those highs just yet so I don't think it Was wrong to be bearish on it here I Think where I was wrong was not just Saying hey this is close enough Okay and again I mean given enough time As enough as you know as more time goes By the likelihood of it of it eventually Putting in new highs goes Up over long period the time Bulls are More are are rewarded more frequently Than Bears right I mean bulls can have You know can have Um can get completely wiped out during Draw Downs like this because what what Often happens is people buy it all the Way down and then they capitulate at the Bottom and then they they watch they Sell he here and then they watch it just Go back up I was you know I basically Was bearish on it through here but I I Did not turn bullish on it right here Because I thought it could go down you Know another few perc that was a mistake I think that was a mistake um and so I I Do hope sort of learn from that in the Future sometimes I think it's just um It's good enough and that goes whether We take out the low or not I mean I

Think that if we if we do take out this Low then I could still say well you know Technically speaking but I I think the Problem with that is that you know I Don't know that it was worth you know Just watching it go up 200% and not knowing if it's going to Come back down I mean it it's come back Down a lot here I mean I know a lot of People are looking at it right here I Mean it's down it's down 40 you know 35 40% in in just the last few months right In about the last half year so that's a Pretty large draw down for you know for Something like Tesla um in fact if you Were to look at at quarterly Returns for Tesla it's down 23% this Quarter you remember in 2016 when it was Down 40% off the yearly open it still Closed the year the the quarter only Down 4% so that's why I'm saying I mean There's there's a chance that there's Some type of mean reversion right where You know I don't know if it's going to Get a smaller bounce like it did right Here uh or sorry like right like right Sorry I didn't even draw out at the Right spot I don't know if it's going to Get a a smaller bounce like it did right Here or if it'll be a larger bounce like Some of these other ones but it's Getting something okay so if if we get An uninverted yield curve in the next Few months and a hard Landing happens

And the FED has to cut aggressively then It's possible that you take out this low If on the other hand that doesn't happen And the FED just starts to slowly cut And nothing bad happens then I I imagine The demand would slowly start to come Back for Tesla one of the issues I think And I think a lot of the reasons why It's been selling off after the last Four earning sessions was because the Market has been rewarding good earnings And and you know punishing bad and Tesla's been reducing their prices on a Lot of these EVs and their margins are Getting squeezed they're they're Reducing their prices I imagine because Demand has slowed I mean don't take it From me they they said as much that that Demand has slowed down and part of the Reason is because of higher interest Rates right I mean the you know if You're going to get a loan to uh to buy Tesla the interest rate is a lot higher Now than it used to be and so a lot of These companies are hoping that the FED Will pivot so that we go back to lower Rates so that then demand starts to come Back so I will say this if a soft Landing if we have a soft Landing Then the low is probably n if it's a Hard Landing then we could certainly Test the Integrity of that low I don't Know which one's going to play out but I Will say I think it is foolish to assume

That one of those has to play out right If you go into it saying that a hard Landing has to play out then you run the Risk of of having watched it drop down To this low again which is basically you Know kind of the same the same pattern From back over here right of sort of Getting that chance and and and then Potentially watching it go to new Highs right that could happen right Something like that could happen if we Get a soft Landing but the Counterpoint Is that if we get a hard Landing then it's already only 50% above I mean it's it would only take a 50% Drop to get down to the prior low or About a 45% drop to get down to the Prior low from where we currently are Um and so if you're if you're getting a Larger draw down in the market You know I mean while while if meta Drops 30 or 40% or if if Netflix drops 30 or 40% they're still putting in Higher lows but if if something's Already suppressed and it drops 30 or 40% then it could easily test those Prior lows so that's why I think it you Know it it it makes sense to be more Open-minded about it than I was back Over here so I think you know to to do With that information what you will I Will be on the lookout to see that if it Can you know if it can hold these lows Right if it can stay above these lows

Then there's a good chance that this is Not tested right like imagine we get an Uninverted gu curve sometime the next Couple of Quarters and um and you know the economy Just continues to sort of hum along in That type of scenario then you probably Don't break the low but if the fed's Forced to cut because we get some type Of you know deflationary spiral then That's where you know that's where it Could potentially break so those are the Risks I think involved to the upside and The downside there's there's two Different types of risk right there's The risk that it goes up and people get Left behind and there's also the risk That it goes down and the people that Are are betting the family farm on it Now watch watch it get you know rinsed Another 40 to 50% I think it it makes Sense to hedge um I I think it would be Foolish to assume that either of those Scenarios have to happen Okay so that is My view on Tesla I just wanted to sort Of come on here and say look I know I I Was bearish on it throughout this entire Phase I did not flip on it here Um I I I I think here I'm I'm more so Taking a a neutral stance that if it can Hold these lows over the next few months Then it's probably going to hold this if It if it breaks down here over the next Few months in some type of larger market

Crash or or or Draw down as we come out Of an inverted Yi curve then you could Test that low um but I don't think it Would go that much lower than that low Right like it could go a little bit Lower in a hard Landing but it probably Wouldn't go that much lower I think We'll go and wrap it up there um and you Know I'll just you know add this video On there so that you guys can you know To the playlist so that it's there for The records and and we'll check back in With Tesla maybe maybe at the end of the Quarter and see if it's if it's managing To hold these lows still or if we you Know if it if it broke down and and we We retested up I think grand scheme of Things five years from now it's not Going to matter um so do with that Information what you will but in the Next year it's really hard to say I Think you can look at prior examples and Come up with reasons why it could hold But then you could look at other things Um you know like yield curve inversion And and rate cuts and say look I mean if It plays out like prior Cycles it it Could be could be kind of nasty but it's Impossible to say for sure anyways we'll Wrap it up there thank you guys for Tuning in make sure you subscribe give The video a thumbs up and I'll see you Guys next time bye


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