ETH / BTC Outlook

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Cryptoverse today we're going to talk About ethereum more specifically we're Going to be discussing the eth Bitcoin Valuation if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out intothe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse Decom the eth Bitcoin valuation has been In a macro downtrend for a while and We've been discussing it for a while and The reasons that I have been bearish on The E Bitcoin valuation have just simply Come down To really two to three things number one Last cycle right at least last cycle we Saw eth Bitcoin bottom out after the First Rate cut right if you look at the First Rate cut it happened to be in July Of 2019 and we know that well eth Bitcoin bottomed out just after that a Couple months after That we also know too that last cycle Eth Bitcoin bottomed out right around The same time that the FED shifted from Quantitative Tightening to quantitative easing in Fact if you look at where the actual Shift occurred let me move this up a Little bit so we can see this if you go From the from quantitative tightening to Quantitative easing you can see that it

Actually precisely marked the bottom on Eth Bitcoin in September of 2019 and This is one of the reasons why I did not Think that it was bottoming out Q3 of 2023 because while it was during the Same time in the cycle we had not seen That shift in monetary policy and so That is why I still remained bearish on Eth bitcoin over Here because we had not yet seen that Shift in monetary policy now there has Been a move up by eth Bitcoin over the Last couple of days and so I did want to At least talk about that at this point Everything that we have seen has been a Lower high right everything that we've Seen by eth Bitcoin all these are just Simply lower highs that a lot of people Got excited about but then ultimately Still resolve to the downside and of Course at some point theoretically The trend will change and instead of Putting in lower highs you'll start to See higher lows and higher Highs but Because we haven't seen a shift in Monetary Policy I don't think that phase has yet Arrived now if I'm wrong I want to talk About what you would be looking for to To sort of see if my view is starting to Be incorrect what I would say and what I Said in the last video I did on the eth Bitcoin valuation was essentially this Um my view revolves around the idea that

The bull market support band will guide Eth Bitcoin down right so if we pull up The bull market support band one of the Things you'll notice here let me Actually get rid of these um the Background on it Um so one of the things you'll Notice right here is that at the very End of it right at the very end of it Actually I got rid of one of the lines I Didn't want to get rid of This one at the very end of it we had One final move back up where it was Ultimately rejected by the bull market Support band now we've made the Comparisons between the 2016 move and The one in 2019 and the one in 2016 After it broke down it just continued to Capitulate right it didn't really get Any more bounces it just went down but Here after revisiting the range low you Will see that eth Bitcoin got one final Bounce back up to its bull market Support band but it was ultimately Rejected by it in fact if you look at This you will see some similarities for Instance you can connect this low here To that low and you'll see something Very similar right there then after that We put in a high and then a lower high Right here above the bull market support Band and you can see that very similar Pattern right there right right so so Far this this move right

Here looks very similar to that one Right there does it not looks pretty Similar the the move was essentially the Same you put in a low and then a lower Low and then you get above the bull Market support band very briefly you Come back down below it you get one and Then you see did the same thing right Here you then get another pop back up Put in a lower high and then go back Into the bu sport band and come back Down to the range low right so we did That right we did that again we we came Back down to the range low now this time We actually went below the range Low whereas back over here we did not Before that bounce occurred but Regardless in the last video that I did On eth bitcoin I said that it is still Possible that we get one final bounce Before eth Bitcoin reaches true and Fin Capitulation this summer again I could Be wrong right I could be wrong and just Because I've been on the right side of Eth Bitcoin for a while doesn't mean That I will continue to be so we first Have to do away with that idea right I Don't I I could you know it it could Reverse before I'm willing to admit that It has um but I I do remember this uh This very similar move last cycle and While I do believe that price dictates Narrative um or narrative follows price Rather than the other way around one of

The things that I said in the last video On the eth Bitcoin valuation is that if You get a move back up to the bull Market support band like you had over Here then the interpretation of it would Would probably be along the lines Something like this the move up will be Speculators dubiously speculating that The ETF will be approved right it's sort Of this low probability outcome where Some Traders are betting that it it Actually might be approved even though It's not it doesn't really seem like it Has a high probability again I don't Really know if it's going to be approved Or not I would assume that eventually it Will be but everything that I've seen in The news um and and what you sort of People in the industry are saying They're speculating that it's not going To be approved in May so if it's not Approved in May then what potentially Could be happening right now is you have Speculators making a a sort of a low Probability Bet that if it gets approved then that Could be the low right just like there Were some investors thinking you know Hey maybe this is the low right but one Of the things you'll notice about a lot Of these eth Bitcoin moves is that they Really take place over like one to two Weeks right this first move right here That we saw back in January you can see

That it topped out that week week well I Guess it yeah and then it went a lower High the following week the second top Over here which was a lower high it had A pretty strong move up but then it Topped out on that on that third week so They tend to not last very long so if my View on eth bitcoin is going to continue To be correct which again there is no Guarantee then I would expect this to Top Out somewhere around 0053 plus or minus you know a few perc Right right because that is ultimately Where the bull market support band is if You look last cycle at that final bounce Before summer arrived it occurred in Miday right it occurred in miday only a Couple of weeks from Now it actually went above the bull Market support band right and you could Actually maybe even connect these Wicks Here um not not quite but it it it Almost made it back up to it maybe if we Switch to a long scale um it's a little Bit it's a little bit closer but not Even really but you can kind of see that It was just a lower high the first two Bounces had weekly closes above its bull Market support band but they never saw Follow through the third one while it Had Wicks above it it did not stay above It for a weekly close so right now the Bull market support band for eth Bitcoin

Is 05346 to 0534 so it's basically right Around 0534 0534 is essentially where that is And So if this pattern is going to repeat Then I would expect it to not durably go Above 0534 right so you know you would Probably see it stay mostly below the Bulling Market support band with some Occasional Wicks above it if it's going To play out like it did over here before Final capitulation I will say I'm not Actually basing my view on eth bitcoin On this pattern right I'm not and I I Know that might sound like a surprise But I'm not basing it on that I'm just Basing it on on monetary policy that's Basically what I've been basing it on if You go back to the merge when a lot of People were more optimistic about eth Bitcoin and they were calling for the Flipping some of the reasons they were Calling for it were due to the Transition from proof of stake or sorry From proof of work to proof of stake and You had you know this deflationary Mechanism and so the speculation was That this change in demand Or sorry that the change in Supply would Cause the eth Bitcoin valuation to go up Because it's now deflationary right that Was sort of the sort of the expectations

Back then at the merge and so ever since Then though we know that it's more than Just a supply side thing because if it Were then maybe you would have expected It to go up it's also based on demand Which is affected by monetary policy and My views on E Bitcoin for the last two And half years my bearish views on eth Bitcoin have had nothing to do with the Fundamental nature of eth or what I Think it might be capable of in the Future it has just to do with the fact That it's slightly riskier than Bitcoin And during periods of Tighter and Tighter monetary policy and high Interest rates my expectation would be That a higher risk asset would bleed to A lower risk asset it has nothing to do With ethereum in enough itself and you Can see the same pattern take place over Multiple different asset classes for Instance the Russell has been bleeding To the NASDAQ right look at the Russell been bleeding to the NASDAQ if You look at companies like Rivan been bleeding to Tesla right it's Just that during these periods these Higher risk assets bleed to lower risk Assets right it's not that Tesla hasn't Gone down it has it's just that rivan Has gone down more so the views on eth Bitcoin it's not a reflection of my Ultimate views on whether it'll be Successful or not I actually think

Ethereum will be successful long term It's more so a reflection of just this Is what happens during Tighter and Tighter monetary policy is that these Higher risk assets bleed to lower risk Assets and the reason that ethereum is Higher risk than Bitcoin is because it's More subject to regulatory pressures Than Bitcoin is also bitcoin's been Around longer right it's the first it Was the first one it's been around Longer it stood the test of time longer Than eth and so for that reason it's Riskier also the market has spoken the Market cap of Bitcoin is higher than the Market cap of eth and so yet again Another reason why I think Bitcoin is Ultimately a safer play so because of my Views on monetary policy and the whole Higher for longer Mantra I've been Bearish on eth bitcoin for those reasons Now what ultimately usually causes the Transition from tighter monetary policy To looser monetary policy is the Breakdown of the Blue Chips right that's When your the NASDAQ Falls or the uh or Bitcoin Falls right that's normally what Causes the transition from higher or From tighter monetary policy to looser Monetary policy if you don't see that Take place then it likely means that Inflation is still an issue and the Consumer is still strong and we have to Keep going higher for longer right but

Until you actually see that take place Then the FED doesn't really have a Compelling reason to Pivot now I do Think the FED will probably pivot sooner Than the market thinks they will because I think we're a lot closer to all Bitcoin pairs breaking down than the Market thinks it is but this was an Outcome that we suggested was a Potential outcome in the last video now I could be somewhat sympathetic because You know anyone who's watching this Video if you're bullish on eth bitcoin And you watch my last video I said I think it's going to continue going Down you could have a temporary counter Trend rally after the having right now Here's the Thing I think this is just a countert Rally that will still resolve to the Downside because of my views on monetary Policy not because of my views on E However if you have been bullish on E Bitcoin you're going to look at this and Say well this is the start of a you know This is a start of something else and so At this point we don't know we don't Know But again my interpretation of this move And I said it in the last video was that The weakest time for Bitcoin and the the This the the time where eth could make a Move against Bitcoin will be just after The having just after the having after

The height wears down just after the Having you could see one final move by It before the final summer capitulation Just like we did over here in 2019 About two months before the First Rate Cut arrived about two months before the First Rate cut arrived e Bitcoin had one Final bounce and then It ultimately Faded now what I think's happening as I Said is I think Traders are speculating There's a low probability outcome that The ETF could be approved I have no idea If it's going to be or not right don't Ask me ask someone who's more in line or In touch with that side of the industry I have no idea but if that's the case And it plays out out kind of like these Other local tops have played out then What you would expect to See is it stall out around the bull Market support band and then slowly Start to bleed and the reason why that Would be the case is because you get the Initial move up right the people over Here get rewarded for buying into the Fear right into the having we get the Bounce because people are speculating That it might that the ETF might be Approved right but as the end of May Gets closer and if there's not that Overwhelming evidence that it's going to Be approved then you could start you Could start to see it slowly bleed back Down right as the people who bought it

Here potentially take profits on it up Here especially if they're not seeing The signs that is going to be approved So again at the end of the day I do Think that the narrative follows the Price but if you were to try if you were To try to assign a narrative to this Move that's the narrative I would assign It is that investors are speculating About ETF approval for East And if it doesn't look like it's going To get approved you could see it slowly Bleed back down and then once you have Confirmation that it's being rejected Then you could actually see the Breakdown if it gets approved then that Could completely change the trend right If you were to Overlay right if we were To Overlay this Fractal I honestly guys I've done this a Long time and you know the whole Overlaying a fractals thing is is not Really my cup of tea because I've seen It happen where people make these Fractals especially especially for like USD valuations of assets where they like They say well this is what happened last Cycle therefore it's going to happen This cycle and almost every single time It never plays out right and often times It's because of diminishing returns Right I think a lot of people sort of Assume that every cycle we won't have Diminishing returns and then we keep

Having it um but they overlay the Fractal from a prior cycle and say well Look this is what's going to happen and Then it doesn't happen but if you do Overlay sort of this fractal here and You just kind of compress it it seems Like this move over here has been taking Place on a a little bit of a shorter Time frame you can actually see like it It lines up pretty well right I mean you Have you have a low you get a lower low You put on a high above the bullmark Sport band and then you put a lower high And then this is right when you get that Final move back up to the bull market Support band before it comes back down Look at this at the end of May and the End of May I believe is when we'll have Confirmation on whether that first you Know that first deadline comes up right About the the the last couple of weeks Of May I don't remember exactly when I Think it was like May May 20 something I I don't know exactly but Um but then you can kind of see like how That is it's an almost identical pattern Low lower low high lower high between Those highs go below the bullmark sport Bin same exact thing the highs are above It you get another move back down below It and then you get one final move back Up before it capitulates into the summer Potentially bottoming out according to This into July now in my last video on

Eth bitcoin one of the things I said was That if it just breaks down in April and You get a similar move that you had in The last two breakdowns what you would Essentially expect is three red candles In a row that lead into the breakdown Right that's what we had last couple of Times right so over here you have three Reds in a row and then the bottom came Here you had three Reds in a row the Bottom occurred the green candle but you Know three Reds in a row that ultimately Marked that final capitulation three Months grueling months in a row where Everyone just finally gave Up to me this move right here looks Really similar to this one right where You run the Lows and then it ends up maybe even Closing the month green Right kind of looks like that one now Here's the thing because This has happened right because we've Run the lows and we've come back up that Means that if it's going to play out Like the last two cycles then rather Than bottoming out in June which is what My base case would have been had we just Seen this breakdown in April because Then we would have just been March April May and then potentially bottoming out That following month in June which is What happened last cycle because we've Run it back

Up I got to give I mean look guys the DJs they've been fighting and you know I've seen for years how you know the the Consumer will not go down without a Fight and my understanding of crypto alt Bitcoin pairs they represent the Consumer the strength of the consumer The stronger the consumer the stronger The alt Bitcoin pairs the weaker the Consumer the weaker the all Bitcoin Pairs we're all Deens at heart right We're all Deens at Heart so because this has happened and We have seen that underlying weakness Short-term weakness by Bitcoin against Eth so the short-term strength of eth Against Bitcoin following the Having I think it delays it by a month Right so then that means if you finally Start this downtrend in May as opposed To what was already happening then it Kind of kicks the can down the road so If it were to follow out follow this Pattern it would be here it was June July and August bottom in September in This case if we resume the downtrend Next month it would be May June July With a potential bottom in either July Or in August it would be a bottom in July if it plays out like this move or Sorry it would be a bottom in August if It plays out like 2019 it would be a Bottom in July if it plays out like 2016 Now what's interesting is you also can

See that in 2022 we had a lot of Weakness by eth Bitcoin in May and June In fact if you look at Bitcoin dominance Excluding stable coins one of the things You'll notice here is that it has seen a Surge going into the summer months for The last three years in fact here it Topped in June and then it had a Slightly higher high in July that was in 2021 in 2022 it hit the top of this Wedge in June in 2023 we did not hit the top of The wedge but we did see it surge into The summer right it surged into the Summer into June and also by the way Dominance had a pullback here near the End of April and then surge into June And and then it came back down and then Once again I'm speculating that perhaps We will see a final surge by dominance Excluding stables and also including Stables into the summer and here's the Thing if we see that move then and we Come up here originally potentially Going to be June maybe it's going to be July now I don't know it could still Happen in June I'm not completely closed Off to that idea but that gets you right If it if it takes place in July that Gets you to about 64.5% excluding stable coins right Excluding Stables right now at 58% so That's another 6 and a half% above the Current level right let's just say about

6% or so well Bitcoin dominance is at 54% 6% move gets you to 60% % which Again is the the 618 retracement on the F on the the FIB retracement tool right It's the 618 which is exactly where it Retraced to last cycle before topping Out just after rate cuts and just after And and actually right during the time The FED shifted from quantitative Tightening to quantitative easing and I'll I'll throw that back up here so That you can see it right you can see That's exactly where Bitcoin dominance Topped out was when the Fed pivoted from Quantitative tightening to quantitative Easing so this is why I haven't changed My view right and like I get it I mean I I'm sure people are saying all sorts of Stuff right now about about My Views Especially given this this move but guys I've been really steadfast on my views On eth bitcoin the entire time and every Single one of these moves has been a Lower high it was never anything Fundamentally against eth that I had it Was just based on monetary policy I Think that after the FED pivots I think That eth Bitcoin will bottom and then It'll start an uptrend but because that Hasn't happened Yet I don't think that this trend is Necessarily over one common Counterpoint That I see and it's it's a fair one I'm Not trying to dismiss it I only bring it

Up if it is fair if it's not fair I'm Probably not going to bring it up one Fair Counterpoint that I see is that Well eth Bitcoin had this top at the Merge so what happened happens if it Bottomed at the having right that's a Fair Statement it's possible right it's Possible but again my view is based on Monetary policy not about these Narratives furthermore another Counterpoint to it is that eth Bitcoin Did not top at the merge it actually Topped in 2021 so this was actually a Lower high right so that we actually had A high over here and then we had a lower High that occurred at the merge so maybe This is your second to last low at the Having and then the last low could be Due to or could be following rejection Of the spotf I want to be clear right When I had this view on eth bitcoin back In you know late 2021 early 2022 it's Not like I thought that final Capitulation would correspond to a Potential rejection of the spot ETF I Have no idea I think it just happens to Be lining up and I think that's what People might blame if it happens right If e if the spot ETF is rejected in May And eth Bitcoin capitulates then I think That's what's going to be blamed but we Didn't even have that last cycle and it Still happened it still happened so I

Don't you know I don't think that that Is necessarily going to that like my View that I've had has never been Contingent on anything related to the Spot ETF right there's even a there's Even a world where it gets Approved and it still bleeds because Maybe people price in a lot more demand For the ethereum spot ETF than there Actually is maybe people still prefer Bitcoin over ethereum because we're Still in tighter monetary policy so I Would argue that my view isn't even Dependent on whether it's approved or Not I hope it is approved honestly I Hope that the ETF is eventually approved If it's approved in May great I would Prefer I would almost prefer that so we Don't have to talk about it for the next Year but my point is that my view is not Really dependent on that my view is just Dependent on monetary policy and so Far that view has been correct right eth Bitcoin did not bottom here we took out That low it did not bottom in October it Did not bottom in January a lot of People saying it had bottomed Then has it bottomed here maybe I don't Think so though I don't think so I would Say the odds of it bottoming here are a Lot greater than back over here in January and one of the reasons I said That was because everyone said well the Next thing to look for is the eth ETF

Right you guys remember that when we had This rally and everyone got excited Because they're like all right well now Now we're going to Rally into the spot ETF for eth right and I said well guys We're forgetting one thing right the Having comes before that so while I know People are getting excited about the eth ETF the having is going to come first And that's why eth Bitcoin will likely Go back down and put in a lower low Regardless of whether what happens with The Spy DTF for eth because the having Is going to come in April so so we could have a scenario Where you know the people they think That this is the low because it Corresponds to the Bitcoin having just Like we saw a high at the merge but what If the final Capitulation right Here corresponds to bad news like the Rejection of the spot ETF which might actually coincide with Retail showing weakness and the FED Cutting rates and just as that happen Happens as potentially final Capitulation happens into the summer Months just like we've seen the last Three Summers that is when it finally bottoms Out just after everyone gives up on it I Honestly think it would be somewhat Poetic if e Bitcoin breaks down upon

Rejection of the spot ETF and then Everyone then puts on their Maxi hat Just as the Bitcoin dominance trend is Ending this Bitcoin dominance trend has Been going on since May of 2021 now you Might say Ben that's not true Bitcoin Dominance was putting in new lows in September of 2022 again including Stables you're right well for this cycle It wasn't a new low but it was a new low For this cycle in at the merge but the Dominance view is is based on on all Bitcoin pairs not stable coins if you Exclude Stables dominance excluding Stables bottomed in May of 2021 right This trend has been going on for almost 3 years this may will be three years of This Bitcoin dominance Uptrend assuming it hasn't topped right My argument is that it's going to Continue to go up into the summer and Finally top out just as social interest In the cryptoverse Fades and you can see I mean you can really see it happening Already if you you know if and by the Way if you look at dominance excluding Stables we had this exact same move Going into rate Cuts last cycle you'll See dominance excluding Stables was Putting in lower highs you see that a High a lower high a lower high and then Guess what happened it swept the high You see that right here you see how we Swept this high and then after sweeping

The high dominance excluding Stables Came back down as eth Bitcoin got that Final bounce before summer it dominance Excluding Stables swept the high and Then came back down for one final move And then dominance excluding Stables Then rallied into the summer now look at What happened Today lower highs by dominance excluding Stables you sweep the high exactly right Look at that sweep the high and then It's come back down look back over here Look how much it dropped it dropped from 61% down to 55 a half that was a big Drop back then you know that was a big Drop now I don't think we're going to See the same magnitude a drop this time Because this spread here was larger than The current one right this High here was Like almost all the way up to 58% down to 50% right about an 8% swing Between those lows and the highs if you Look over here it was from about 59% down to about 54 right so only about A 5% Swing so it's compressed Somewhat so while this Pullback was 61 to 55 A5 right so you had about a What that's a 4 and a half% move 60 or No 5 and a half% move that's 61 not 60 So 5 1/2% move from 61 down to 55 1/2 here it's already dropped from 59 to 56 and a half right I mean it's and that

Doesn't even include what's happened Today this is just based on the last Data point it's actually probably lower Than this right now this is just based On the last data point that we had but Dominance has gone down today so you Know I mean if it goes from 59 even to 56 so what like that's basically what it Did last time and then it still curled Up it curled back up going into the Summer and then it surged in June and July and August here we might have to wait till June but I think maybe it starts to Surge in May June July could be June July August but I think it's probably Going to play out in a very similar Fashion in fact if you connect these Dots it almost looks like we're just Back testing the breakout point right we Can go look at it dominance excluding Stables on trading View look at this if we just connect These dots perhaps it'll yeah I mean It's a bit handwavy right I'm not Connecting this one because it it it Fits my narrative better not to but I Mean you can kind of see that it's Coming back in and maybe it even goes Below it right maybe it comes back down To this trend line over Here right we've been holding that trend Line forever and also by the way if you Look at excluding Stables we're still

Above the bullmark sport band Right so sorry I clicked on the wrong Thing right we're still above the Bullmark and you can even see there was Another time previously where dominance Excluding Stables got below it we then Got a rally back above it and then we Kind of came back down and held it as Support just as we held the trend line As support what if the same same thing's Happening right we went below it we then Got a pop back above and now we're just Sort of fading back into it but I'm Guessing that this bull Mark SP is going To continue to rise here and lift the Dominance with it the dominance Excluding Stables is at around 57 to 57. 38% that's only a half percent lower Than where we currently are right that's Where the 21 we EMA is a half perent Lower than where we currently are if e Bitcoin get a move to 0.0053 to its Bullmark support Bend there you have it Right there you have dominance excluding Stables back down to its bullmark sport Band at the same time that eth Bitcoin Gets up to it's bullmark sportband so my Guess is that you're going to see eth Bitcoin top out here in the next week or So around the bull market support band And you could see the turn happen either Around the labor market data released Next week or it could be around the Inflation data released later on in

May and again I mean it also could Theoretically shift at the next fed Meeting which is coming up really soon So I would I would keep an eye on this Because it seems like it's really Playing out very similar to what Happened over here and I I I can't help But feel like once again everyone's Potentially falling for that same Playbook that they fell for in 2019 just before those rate Cuts Arrived so that's my view on the market Could I be wrong absolutely I've been Wrong about many things over the years This is one one thing that I've um been On the right side of for the last couple Of years for reasons I've stated based On monetary policy monetary policy Hasn't shifted therefore my bias on it Still Remains down I ultimately think Eth Bitcoin is going to bottom out Around3 to 04 I don't know exactly where But that's what I would ultimately Expect um and I think if it gets down There there's going to be a lot of People calling for it to go back to 01 02 but I don't think it's going to go That low I think 03 to 04 following Rejection of the spot ETF is likely the Bottoming process for the eth Bitcoin Valuation and I think that the current Move by eth Bitcoin is sort of the last Harra just like it got in 2019 before Rate Cuts arrived before It ultimately

Capitulated down into the summer so that Is my view it has nothing to do with Spot ETF I tried to provide some Narrative around it if you want a Narrative to go with the chart but I Don't really think you need one it looks The same thing like it did last cycle I Said it's possible we get one final Rally back up to the bullmark sport band At around 053 to 054 before capitulation Of the summer it seems like that's What's happening just because it's Happening doesn't mean I'm right it Could be that it is a low but in order For confirmation of that you would need To see Bitcoin do or you would need to See e Bitcoin get above its bullmark Sport band and then start holding it as Support right and if you don't see that Then I still think it's just going to be Yet another lower high that everyone Once again got excited about that Ultimately resolved to the downside the Last thing I will say is that last cycle That eth Bitcoin Capitulation occurred it finalized After alt Bitcoin pairs broke down so One thing about this bounce is that alt Bitcoin pairs had not yet broken down Right they haven't had a weekly close Below their range low so I think that You're seeing something very similar With all Bitcoin pairs that you saw over Here one final rally up to the bullmark

Wor Banner it didn't even make it to the Bullmark wor band back then and then it Came down right I think you're seeing Something like that happen once again With all Bitcoin pairs one final push Before capitulation down to the range Lows this summer and because this is Happening because of this Bounce by eth Bitcoin now maybe you do see all Bitcoin Pairs durably break down before eth Bitcoin that's what happened last cycle Anyways all Bitcoin pairs durably broke Down the week of June 24th eth Bitcoin Broke down the week of July what was it July 7th um July 8th Right so the eth Bitcoin broke down two Weeks after alt Bitcoin pairs did so With this move by eth Bitcoin perhaps That's something one thing I was looking At is while e Bitcoin did get a close Below the range low from June 2022 a Weekly close below it what's kind of Interesting is that it did not get a Weekly close below this recent low right This recent low was at 079 and then the weekly close was at 0.0048 so perhaps that is is something To sort of take note of again my Expectation is that it will still break Down all Bitcoin pairs might actually Break down first just like they did last Cycle in a durable fashion right I mean To some degree e Bitcoin already did Break down because it got a weekly close

Below .49 but I think this is the final The final Push before the final capitulation into The Summer as we get into potential rate Cuts I don't know probably not in May Right I don't think we're going to get a Rate cut in May but I I could see a rate Cut coming sometime this summer um Probably not a huge one unless something Catastrophic happens right but it could Be just sort of of like a 25 basis point Rate cut could be a 50 basis point rate Cut in fact in 2019 we got a rate cut in July you know maybe there's just some Underlying weakness that occurs you know In the summer and I've talked about that Before with all Bitcoin pairs is that You can see that we got a rate cut in July in 2019 that was when all Bitcoin pairs Broke down and the reason I think this Happens is it goes back to the social Risk I I think that people lose interest In crypto in the summer months a lot of Times and when people tune out that's When the bid for altcoins against Bitcoin kind of dries up and then that's When Bitcoin dominant surges as you saw Bitcoin dominant surge in 2021 and 2022 And in 2023 in the summer months and you Can see the social risk is is kind of Still looking 2019 esque right it's now Putting in lower lows from this low

Right here and lower highs which is Exactly what happened over here in 2019 Just before rate Cuts arrived so I think The reason why you can get that Capitulation of all Bitcoin pairs in the Summer is because detail is once again Tuning out you know I know there were Some people that were kind of hopeful That maybe they would tune back in but If you look at YouTube views um for a Lot of these crypto YouTube channels There was a spike going into the having But I mean look at this it's just been Bleeding ever since then right it's just Been coming all the way back down so I Think that's kind of the reason that you Could see final capitulation of all Bitcoin pairs this summer is because in The summer months is often times when People stop caring about the markets for A while and if the bid for altcoins Disappears relative to bitcoin that's When alt Bitcoin pairs capitulate and You've already seen some alt Bitcoin Pairs already capitulate um you know Madic Bitcoin has already you know it's Already been in the process of Capitulating well below its range lows Um same thing with with Ada Bitcoin and And Dot Bitcoin um they're well below Their range lows uh and so on and so Forth right the list goes on and on but Again those are my views I don't know if I'll continue to be right about the

Trend but those are at least the reasons Why I remain um optimistic on bitcoin Dominance and I remain bearish on the Eth Bitcoin valuation monetary policy Has not shifted once it does I will then Be looking for a low on E Bitcoin but I Don't think that's going to happen until This summer if you guys like the content Make sure you guys subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out intothe Crypts premium at Intothe that I'll wrap it up For this time see you guys next time bye


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