Cardano Outlook

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Cryptoverse today we're going to talk About cardano and its native token Ada If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and check out the sale On into the cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse decom let's go ahead And jump in to be completely honest I'm Not exactly sure the best place to start You know the market has has moved up a Lot in the in the last few weeks so I do Want to take inventory of that show Where we are at least within the context Of the prior cycle and talk about Potential outcomes and how to hedge in Various scenarios okay that is my goal In this Video Now I think that we are a product of our Prior experiences right so our our prior Experiences really shape who we are they Shape what we're willing to talk about What we're willing to say what we're Willing to do right and so I think to Better Understand my point of view or where I'm Coming from we should probably first Take a stroll down memory lane back to 2019 and 2020 over here but not to just look at The chart but to look at just a few of My videos back then

Because you'll see kind of what happened And and and and how it sort of shaped me Into who I am today right so let's just Go take a look it shouldn't take long Here's the first video this was this Video was from 2019 and it was cardano Price analysis using logarithmic Regression I don't even know what I said Then we could imagine that we might you Know we might the sound is awful right This I don't even I can't believe anyone Watched this video come down touch this Orange line again it's possible that That's going to represent you know some Of the best long-term buying opportunity Okay enough right General expectation Was That we would get out of this long Accumulation phase and go much higher And you know in this video I drew out a Path for Ada going well above where we Went right but it's so hard right Because you know you put out a price Prediction when it's literally two cents Right two cents or three cents so hard To know what it's going to do in the Future right it's impossible to know no One knows and if you put out a price That's you know a 3 or 4X multiple or a 5x multiple or whatever higher than what Ends up happening you'll never hear the End of it but it's impossible to know I Mean like from this level adaah went up 150x basically 100 to 150x depending on

Exactly where you got it right whether You got it at like two cents or three Cents right wherever but it's so hard Right and so that's one of the reasons Why I have reservations about at this Cycle is you know last cycle I put out All sorts of price predictions and and You know you'll watch the market go up But most of most of the the loftier Price predict sort of those dreams they Never happen and what ends up happening Is the people that watch the video in 2019 they were pleased because they're Up 150x right but the people that came In 2021 were really pissed off because It didn't go higher than $3 right so that's one of the reasons Why I have reservations about making Price predictions today is because you Just simply do not know how high it can Possibly go several years in the future Right right so this video was from 2019 You know I sort of speculated that it Would come back down but I did not think It would put in a lower low right I I I Sort of Drew out a higher low I drew Some ridiculous logarithmic regression Chart I guess if we were look at this Today in 2023 I mean you can see the Chart is everything happened on a Different time frame but you know it's Funny because today um I we essentially Have it going to around where it Currently is but I mean obviously the

Price you know sort of the dire is Completely different right going much Higher than I thought coming back down To currently you know the end of 2023 Around the current price you know plus Or minus a few a few cents right so I Was filled with optimism right I was Like all right well maybe one more Retest to the low no lower low and We're Off to the Races right because I didn't Think Bitcoin would put in a lower low So I'm like well if bitcoin's not going To put in a lower low then why would the Alt coins okay so this was like you know This was Late 2019 and then not too long Later we talked about you know this Golden Cross on cardano right I'm not Sure if this was in the right order but Yeah so maybe this one this one came First let me check the Price yeah so I mean I don't know you Know one of these let's just switch this One here so cardono imminent Golden Cross right and I see the videos today Right people are talking about the Golden Cross like go look at go look at Ada go look at at what it's doing right Now what happened we just printed a Golden cross right similar Golden Cross Was Printed right Here in early 2020 right and back

Then I was I was excited right I'm like Well life seems good you know we don't We didn't really get that retest the Prior a higher low in 2020 the market Was moving higher right so so why was I So concerned about it in in late 2019 That we would have to go back down right Because then over here the current Valuation I might be wearing this sh the Same shirt actually that's kind of funny Of cardano could be a thing of you know Um uh somewhat comical in in in the Future if if we're able to move out of This accumulation phase that we're in so Now that I've kind of talked about so Again I I don't I don't really know I Mean I basically I'm just sort of saying That like that that range could be kind Of comical in the future if they're able To accomplish everything they wanted to Accomplish right if you go watch my Videos back then I I I I was very Bullish right I mean it it seemed like Two cents 3 cents 4 cents was a steal And I'm just like what's going on like You know it seems so obvious right and Back then I I would often just say well Like anything below 10 cents is is fair Game and you know I put out more videos Right as the price climbed higher the Market has been fairly brutal you know For the most part um the last couple of Years you can see like I have no I had No confidence at all right because you

Know I I was demoralized absolutely Demoralized from buying Ada at like 12 Cents and 13 cents and 14 cents back Over Here right and then watching it just go Down and back up and go all the way back Down it was demoralizing right I mean You can see it you know you you you Could have seen it in my face right I Accidentally clicked off the video but That was what I was talking about right And for me at the time it was like well Seems like we're done with all this Accumulation stuff it's time to move Up and then what happened is one of the Reasons why I been so reserved today Right because then here's a video Cardano and the current conditions of Cryptocurrency this was from March of 2020 right March of 2020 oh right is Just I don't want to only post videos on Coins when they're doing well and of Course we don't do that with Bitcoin and We don't do that with ethereum because Um you know those are doesn't matter Really what I'm saying right but the Point is is like it was depressing to me Because we had just spent all this time In 2019 in 2018 sort of building out a Range All this time putting in higher lows in Fact only for it to get completely wiped Out in the hav year right and I get it Like Black Swan pandemic we shouldn't

Necessarily count on that to happen Again but it's because of this Experience that has made me so reserved On the altcoin market right so reserved Because I looked I you know what I did Back then right I just DC Ada starting In Q3 of 2018 and I was just looking at it right I just kept thinking like like why Didn't I just DCA Bitcoin during that Time like if you go look at at Bitcoin You know I would have been so much Better off in 2018 2019 and even early 2020 just buying Bitcoin right like I Would have been so much better off Because you know while A here was sitting at a new low so Literally every single every single Purchase I had made on Ada was negative right like I was I was I lost money on every single purchase Every single DCA that I had carried out For you know for for basically a year And a Half I'd lost money on and it was Demoralizing right and I was just like Well why didn't I just buy Bitcoin During that time Then convert my Bitcoin to Ada at the Appropriate time right that's what I Thought back then so my goal in this Prehab Year was to try to improve on my own Mistakes from the prior cycle right and

A lot of people give me crap for it Right you've heard my views on bitcoin Dominance more times than you probably Care to count but I experienced it Brutally last cycle and I wanted To avoid that same mistake this cycle Right I wanted to avoid it because Essentially you know what happened last Cycle if you look at at at one Over a to bitcoin what I what I saw Happen in you know that prehab year was You know in in January of the prehab Year one Bitcoin would have fetched you Around you know 85 90,000 Ada but by the end of the prehab year One Bitcoin would have fetched you 244,000 Ada Right I could have saved so much of the Satoshi valuation of my Portfolio just simply by buying Bitcoin Back then instead of buying Ada now that Didn't mean there wasn't a lot of money To be made on Ada when it finally turned The corner on bitcoin that did not Happen until we went back to looser Monetary policy right again if you Overlay interest rates onto this chart You will see that ADA the this inversion Of ADA Bitcoin so the Bitcoin Ada Valuation it did not top until the FED Started cutting Rates right it did not top until the FED Started to cut so then that's why I keep Saying right for the last two years

Until the FED Cuts a to bitcoin could bleed and you Can see that I mean this this has been Going up right I mean like you know in September 2021 one Bitcoin would have Fetched you around 16,000 Ada today it Gets you around 97,000 Ada Okay it looks very Similar to this to this phase right very Similar to this over Here So that is why throughout this entire Year I've said if you want to buy crypto You're probably better off buying Bitcoin over Ada in the prehab year it's Not like I have anything against adaa Right the fact that I even talk about it In my mind is it just just sort of Expresses that I have an interest in it Right if I don't I don't really talk About things that I don't have an Interest in But in my mind you Know I just wanted to help people avoid The mistakes that I made in the prehab Year in last cycle Right So my experiences over here really Helped shape who I am today and how I Navigate the markets today what I'm Willing to say what I'm not willing to Say the amount of risk I'm willing to Take on I I I lived it I experienced it The hard way in 2018 2019 and 2020 and I

Just kept thinking to Myself I would have been better off Buying Bitcoin and then in the having year Getting into cardano right into having Year and look guys a lot of people in The cardano community honestly they Don't like me because I have been very Negative about cardono with respect to Bitcoin And and so on and so forth for the Entire year all I can say is it's never Personal it was only based on my Experiences and also my understanding Ignorant as it may be of monetary policy And how it affects Cryptocurrencies So how do you know where where does that Come in today right where where where Are we Today well I mean as the time of this video a is Trading at around 38 cents Right and I look at this chart and I I Feel like I mean it seems so familiar to Me right so familiar it's almost like an Exact replay of the last cycle so far Almost an exact replay I mean you can See it on the chart it so far it's been Almost the exact same thing right you Have your Peak you get your little you know your Deadcat bounce in there you consolidate In Q3 right you

Consolidate Here in Q3 everyone thinks that's the Low but it's not right just like we said In 2022 it's not the low and that we'll Go down Further following that you get your low Your initial Low one of the things you've probably Heard me say many times is that altcoins Can put in new lows in the prehab year Even if Bitcoin doesn't Bitcoin normally Ends the prehab year higher than where It started every single prehab year but Altcoins can often put in new lows in The prehab year now last cycle Ada did Not put in a new low in the preh having Year but I knew that it could because I Saw other altcoins do it and coincident A put in a new low in June even though Bitcoin didn't right even though Bitcoin Didn't I mean Bitcoin was trading at Like 25k or something 30k and and Ada Was putting in a new Low so you can kind of see it on the Chart right and then you have your your One two Top same exact I mean it's it's Identical so far right then you Bleed you even get sort of like an Intermediate uptrend right here just Like this one in the context of a Downtrend just like this One and then you get This

Right and I remember last cycle like I Mean I I just remember it so vividly Being like all right I'm going to dcaa To here or sorry here and here and here And here and here and here here and by By March of the having year I'm just Like what the hell man man you know I Was buying it over here when no one Seemed to care about it and I still Can't be rewarded for it right it's Still going down it's still putting in a New low and it didn't just put in any New low it it might not look like much But from this low Here that was a 36% Drop we didn't know what was coming After this I mean you can look on the Chart today and be like oh yeah great Opportunity but look what we saw this is What we saw Right look what I saw I mean you can see What I saw back then this was what the Chart looked like I had no idea it was Going to go do This absolutely no idea that that was What was going to come next right not a Clue even though not that many months Before I drew it out I even Drew out it Coming down in early 2020 but I was not Anticipating a lower Low so when the lower low came It made me like question everything I Mean I didn't sell or anything I still Bought but it really did make me

Question why didn't I just buy Bitcoin During that time because at least at Least then my satosi evaluation would Have been Preserved so I feel like I learned a lot Of lessons right and my goal this Cycle was to help people avoid those Lessons or sorry avoid the lessons that I had to to learn the hard way and so What I said in q1 of 2022 was that Altcoins are are likely going to be too Risky for a while for like you know with Respect to bitcoin they're probably too Risky for you know two to two and a half Years just like they were last Cycle and I mean it has honestly been Hell dealing with that Viewpoint and and Every single time you know any altcoin Rallies having to sort of face the the Wrath of crypto Twitter and and you know It's been brutal but my my my only goal Was to try to help people avoid the Mistakes that I Made so then here we are today and I Look at this chart and I'm like well you I don't know like I don't know will it Continue to play out will it not and you Could make a compelling case either way Right like why should I look at this and Say that we have to have the same Thing we don't we don't have To this was a black swine right the S&P Was dropping like crazy it a Black Swan Not the fake black swans that everyone

Calls you know anytime their altcoin Goes down but a real Black Swan where we Had a pandemic you know hit the world And every Market essentially everywhere Was in it was just in in meltdown Mode so you shouldn't necessarily look At this chart and think that it has to Play out but I can feel the like I can Feel I I I remember how I felt during Each of these times I remember sort of The the depression after watching Ada Collapse I remember the highs that I Felt at these highs in the prehab year I Remember right here in the Video I remember this Rally I'm being like I was right you Know all the people that didn't buy it Over here what losers right they're Getting left Behind and then I felt like an Idiot when the recession arrived when The pandemic arrived that led to a Recession because I didn't think about It that much right I mean we had an Inverted yeld curve in 2019 I didn't really care you know Everyone only thing people do is when You get an inverted yield curve everyone Just screams recession until eventually They're right right and you Know this cycle I mean I've been clear That I I think there's a good chance That at the end of the business cycle That will end with a recession I don't

Know when that's going to be exactly I Didn't even think about it last cycle And I would have been better off if I Had I mean maybe if I had I would have Just gotten lucky because you know we Ended up getting this massive culation There's no chance I what there's no Guarantee that it would have happened But it did and we got a lower Low to give you an idea I mean about What that would look like right I mean Like last cycle Ada was was basically Finding these lows at around 25 cents or So right 25 I think this was um the low Was 27 cents right 27 cents and then This cycle sorry not 27 cents um 0.027 Cents right so this cycle these lows are About 10x higher right about 10x higher But then what you'll see is that the Final drop put Ada below 2 cents right So it it ended up going below this low By about 36% % right now we do Experience diminishing volatility from One cycle to another but just to give You an idea you know a 36% drop from From this low would put Ada at at around 14 15 cents if we assume there's some Type of diminishing volatility and There's still a recession let's say 20% It could put it at like 17 18 cents okay That would be if a recession arrives I Don't know if it's going To If you take a bar pattern and just kind

Of overlay it and compress it because we Do have you know we don't have as much Volatility this cycle Right and then you just sort of look at It here and I got to even compress it Even more I guess Um I Mean so far it's been an almost carbon Copy match right just diminishing Volatility it's not as volatile as what We had back over Here so that's why I've been so cautious On on a lot of altcoins because you know I really saw what happened last cycle I I wasn't prepared for it and um and I Just wanted to people I wanted people to Preserve the Satoshi valuation of their Portfolio she like well Bitcoin heavy Until loose for monetary policy you know But as the cycle drags On it becomes harder and harder to you Know to continue with those convictions Because you know you you know there's Like this chance that the Market's just Going to leave you right you know that That every that the market will just Sort of leave you behind but you also Look back at the context of history and Say well you know what if it happens Again like what if what if the you know A recession arrives in in 2024 just as Everyone's loading up for the having Right the Bitcoin having I don't know I Don't know if it's going to happen how

Do you hedge right well I mean I imagine If you like cardano then you probably Have a position right it's what you Probably have Um that's the way you hedge is in Case this doesn't happen and you want Exposure you have a position Right If you don't want to take the Risk then you could stay Bitcoin heavy Until looser monetary policy arrives Because the thing is is like if Ada were To break up to like let's say like like 40 cents or 50 cents or something like That there's a good chance that Bitcoin Went up too right like the likelihood I Mean that's not necessarily true I mean If if Bitcoin were to just stay at 37k For like two months there's you know a Could still move but like suppose that a Goes to dollar or something right like The only way it's going to do that is if Bitcoin rallied first right like that's The only way it would make it to a Dollar is if Bitcoin rallied first and And continue to show strength um and Just kept doing more or less what it's You know what it's been doing so if you Are risk averse but you still want Exposure to the Upside then you could just keep a Bitcoin heavy portfolio right if you Want to take on more risk because you Don't really care about this Bitcoin

Dominant stuff and and anyone who does Is just you know some ridiculous Investor that doesn't understand the Markets right if you don't care about The Bitcoin dominant stuff and all you Care about is the USD valuations which Is not necessarily I'm not trying to say That in a bad way I mean that's all I Cared about in Prior Cycles Um then you could have a position right And if and if you don't get this move Here Then you celebrate right you know you Come dunk on come dunk on on my Bitcoin Dominus views if that happens right but That is you know that's something that I Think you know is worth considering and I'm not here to tell you there's a right Answer right I don't know what the right Answer is I think there's a Reason to consider both outcomes right To say well what if we don't get a Recession and you know to think like Well how do you how do you hedge but Then also to think like well what if we Do get one and and we find ourselves With with a lot of altcoins putting in New lows sometime in early 2024 it's a tough position to be in Right like I want no more I I I really I Crave that feeling of of of seeing Looser monetary policy and and and and Thinking that all right finally alts are Done bleeding against Bitcoin like I

Crave that feeling like I see people That that are are so bullish just like I Was last cycle right just like I was Posting all these charts talking about Golden crosses right you've seen that Recently I did it too and then 2020 Arrived and and all hell broke loose so I look at the market today and I say Look I don't know if it's going to play Out in the same way if you like Carano You should probably be hedged either way Right if you Want To have exposure to It then you have to be prepared in case Something like this happens how do you Stay prepared for it well it means you Keep some cash on hand just in case There's nothing wrong with having some Cash earning 5 and a half% risk- free in Some money market account in my opinion Not Financial advice right but in my Opinion and if this Happens then you have this cash sitting In a money market account you can use You can capitalize on It you know if you were to go look at Um at money retail money market funds People have been piling in to this Stuff it starts to go back Down when the FED pivots because then The risk-free rate isn't as attractive So you got to go seek yield elsewhere And where better to go seek yield than

In the assets that have been hammered Hardest right because then the upside is So much more because then you have all This money flowing back in like all this Liquidity you know alts finally bottom Out against Bitcoin more durably it's Not just sort of like a single balance And so on and so forth one chart I've Shown before are the monthly Candles we've even talked about this This year and I even said like this is The most likely outcome right and it's Like it's playing out but it's like no Matter what it's like it's hard to Believe believe right like no matter What it's hard to believe you get your You get your bare Market you get your bare Market same thing as always you get your Preh having year rally you got your preh Having year rally you then bleed for Most of the the rest of the year same Thing over Here then you get your recession rally Then you get your A recession Rally and then that's where the FED Pivots It's Easy when it's abstract right like when When you're sitting over here and you're Watching the market bleed it's easy to Say yeah you know what we'll probably Get a couple candles that look like this And then it'll go back down once the

Recession arrives right it's easy when You're not in the market right when You're or when you're when you're Looking at a chart when you look at Ada Over here if you weren't buying Ada over There you don't understand the emotions That we went through right you just Don't because you weren't over there Buying you can look at the chart all you Want but you don't you don't know how How people felt dcing this entire thing And then watching it still put in a new Low you know the people that have given Me a hard time this year about these Views and they say you know all these Great things about Aiden I'm not trying To say that there's not some positive Things about the project there are but There were also positive things back Over here as I talked about in some of These videos in fact this video I went On and on about it Ian said at one point There was a great Community I can't even Believe I said that but I was losing to I'm like I can't even believe I said That because now I like I I feel like You know saying that kind of stuff is Just so cliche and it's just like you Know it doesn't really mean anything Right like oh we have a great Community Um I mean a lot of the communities in Crypto are all just the same like there Just mixed you know everyone's just in All these various projects

But when you're looking at the chart and It's bleeding it's easy to say yeah like It's going to we're going to get a Couple of candles like this and and then We're going to capitulate a recession And it's like all right well that's Probably going to happen and then when It arrives it makes you second guess Everything like well well crap like you Know is that it is that is that the Bottom could be right it could be and You know if it is and and and you want To buy Ada it's still not that far off The low all things considered like Imagine if you don't get a recession and Then something like this comes after it You know like does anyone look at people That bought adaah right here on this Green Candle and laugh did the people that Joined crypto up here look at the people That bought right here and laugh at them And mock them because they didn't buy Down here or do they say damn that was a Good price Right this came after it Though will it happen again I don't know The market is saying that the First Rate Cut isn't going to happen until May I Believe and this thing keeps going back And forth sometimes it says not till June I can also tell you the market has No clue what it's talking about because The odds have changed every every single

Month for the last two years on what's Going to happen you know at one point The market was pricing in Hikes all the Way up to you know 6% at another point They were pricing in Cut starting at Like 4% Market has no clue what's going Going to happen that this could change Overnight if the unemployment rate were To print like north of 4% next month Right if if the unemployment rate goes Like 4.2% or something and surprise is Way to the upside this thing will likely You know that'll flip these rate Cuts Much sooner probably you know forget Forget may you could have a rate cut in In January or March which would be funny if that Happened because January or March Would be right before the Having which is Exactly we at a bottomed last cycle two Months before the Having so I'm here to say just want to Be open honest as I can right I've been Very critical about a lot of altcoins This year because I expected them to Bleed against Bitcoin I have no regrets In that view it has been the correct View even though it's not a popular one Bitcoin dominance is legitimately I mean Look at these monthly candles on Dominance how can you Say that this is not a bullish move look At the weekly candles on bitcoin

Dominance not a single weekly close Below the bull market support band which Consists of the 20we SM the 21 we EMA For the entire year there was one single Wick below it in January not a single Weekly close below it all year Long as much as you like Ada as much as You like it as much as you know you Think it's going to go higher and it Could and you know it could over the Next couple years you still would have Been better off with Bitcoin this year There's no denying it there's absolutely No denying it you can look at the Ada Bitcoin valuation and see that pretty Clearly right there's just simply no Denying it because if you look at at Where it came into the year it was Around 1,600 sat And back then I said it's likely going To go to 800 SATs by the summer I was Laughed at right I was laughed out of The off crypto Twitter essentially then It went to 800 SATs which back in early 2022 is where I said the best case Scenario would be but once it got here I Was fairly convinced and I kind of still Am to some degree that it could go lower Right the reason I think it could go Lower is because again we still haven't Reached looser Monetary policy Yet the a if you look at all prior Tightening cycles and where the FED

Paused the average length of a pause is Eight Months I think I when I I was looking at It eight months put you in March so the Average length of a Fed pause before They start to cut is is about eight Months eight months puts you in in March Because you know you can see they paused Here in July well technically they wrote They they they raised rates in July but That's where you know the paws Officially started because that was the Last raise and then from that Point they they didn't you know they Didn't do anything after that so if you To go over here and and let's just flip This over to Months you can see we're already it's Already been four Months March gets you to eight months Which is the average length of time of a Pause before the FED starts to cut last Cycle If you look at This they only paus for six Months and then that was why Ada a Bitcoin bottomed out in August because They already Paused once they pause and then start to Go back to looser monetary policy once You get rate Cuts that's when riskier Assets like altcoins can find a durable Bottom against Bitcoin assuming they're Not going to become a relic of a prior

Cycle it is so hard predicting which Altcoins will actually go to new All-time highs for everyone that does That then develops survivorship bias4 There's like 100 that Don't I'm feel pretty happy that last Cycle all the altcoins that I picked Went to New alltime highs cardano went To New alltime highs chain link went to New alltime highs if you want to call Ethan all it went to New alltime highs They all went to New all-time Highs but So many of them didn't put in new Highs we look at the adaa Bitcoin Chart it's what it looks like right it's Just more or less just been down only Since September 2021 So I want to be Open-minded to where this thing could Bottom the problem for me is that it Literally just put in a new low Less than a month ago you know and guys I know people saying all sorts of bad Things about me on on Twitter but you Know the people that I've gotten into Arguments with about ADA to bitcoin Going lower this year yes they they They've celebrated every single pop to The upside but it's like how can they Claim they were right when it put in a New low not even a month ago right Ada Has been bleeding back to bitcoin all Year all year

Long but I don't like being the bad guy Anytime it does this right like anytime It gets a pop I'm the bad guy Right it's hard you know it's really Hard because I don't really I mean I Want to see cardono suceed like I'm not Anti Cardano I just you know I I know what happened last Cycle so we'll see you know we'll see What happens I think the thing to look For is is if it does come back down Which there's no guarantee right um but If it does come back down can it hold This low at 800 STS or does it or does It break down one of the things that I Was actually bullish on I know gasp was And I said this in in the last few Videos on Ada was I said that a to Ether Would likely have some type of reversion To the mean because we sort of noted That if it is in this downtrend channel Which again don't take it up with me Like I don't necessarily you know I Don't I don't make the chart what it is It just it is what it is and you know Ada ether has been putting in lower lows And I said well you know this Wick here Could be you know a point where Ada Starts to gain back on ethereum and it Has now the key thing to look at is it's Back to where it was back to where it Broke down there's no guarantee that it Can break out

Here I have no problem if it breaks out Here absolutely no Problem right I think ether Bitcoin Should bleed a lot honestly I think Ethereum needs to bleed against Bitcoin Quite a Bit to be completely honest Right but at this point by the way guys I mean you know I as much as you might Like cardano I I don't see it flipping Ethereum I don't and I said that last Cycle too and and and people said all Sorts of things but guess what it never Flipped ethereum and I don't think it's Going through this cycle either but I Also don't think e the is going to flip Bitcoin we always fall into these Narratives these traps like thinking That like all right well this has to Flip this what if the status quo just Remains the Same right what if the Status quo just Remains the Same that's Probably the most likely Outcome right we can dream you know you Can dream about what it would be like But the reality is it's probably not Going to happen you're probably better Off assuming that it won't happen taking Profits when it gets CL when when when People start talking about it more and And then just joining back can once no One's talking about it Again so you know I look at this and I Say well I don't know if it's going to

Break back above this or not um but That's at least a key thing to look for And I I was bullish on the Ada I said There's a good chance you will get some Type of mean reversion here over the Next few months and see it go back up And it did right I mean I expected Ada To to gain against ethereum basically Ever since this this capitulation back In June because I mean just the Integrity of the downtrend channel just To help it remain intact right you you Needed some type of mean reversion right But you'll notice that there was a low Put in in late 2019 and then a lower low is put in in In in the first part of the having year So if Ada to Ether gets rejected and it Comes back down Here that could be sort of a a macro low To where then it actually like sort of Bounces back up to the top of the Channel right but I I don't know you Know we won't know if this happens until You know some time in the first half of 2024 so then what causes ad it a drop Right I mean like what would it be I Don't know I mean it could be a Recession one one thing about recessions And um and again like you'll get Yourself into trouble if you constantly Try to predict when it's going to happen Right my view that I've said a lot over The last two years at least the last

Year year and a half is that the Earliest it will arrive will be The Late Late 2023 or it could be an early 2024 That has been my view but I'm open to Amending that view if it doesn't seem Like it's playing out I'm not in the Business of trying to predict exactly When it's going to happen you know People wait forever for stuff to happen And it and it happens way you know Way Beyond when they think it's going to a Lot of people said that we were in a Recession back in the first half of 20122 but I don't really buy that Considering that we were at historic Lows and the unemployment rate But you know if you're not really Familiar with what I'm talking about uh If you look at treasury yeld spreads Right like so if you look at the Inversion of the 3-month and the 10year Yield you will see that we actually had An inverted yield curve back in 2019 right back in 2019 and then uninverted and then we got A recession yes a black span Event but that's kind of the thing isn't It right if there is a Recession it's always going to be blamed On something right like this recession Over here right you'll always find a Reason that it's going to happen and This one over here there's always Something it's never just oh it happened

Because the economy is weak and we know The econom is weak because the yield Curve suggest it it makes no sense that You can lock in a I mean it does make Sense when you think about where the Economy is but theoretically in good Economic Times it would make absolutely No sense that you could get a higher Yield a higher annualized yield In a lower duration treasury than a Higher duration treasury or a longer Duration treasury it'd be like you know Like I mean I know I know Ada doesn't Have um you know sort of like lock up I Mean you can unstake it whatever but Like imagine if it did right like Imagine if you could pick how long you Stake it for and then you can't actually Access it until it gets until that time Period like so imagine you you stake Some for a month and then some for for Two months when you have an inverted Yi Curve basically it's saying all right For the one month you're going to get a Higher annualized yield than for the two Months like well that doesn't make sense Right if you're going to lock your your Stuff up for longer you should get a Higher yield but you don't right now Right you don't and I mean you can go See that right here like go look at the Yield Curve you don't get a higher Yield the short the yield curve is much

Higher than the long end we actually had A a steepener not too long ago but it Was because the long end was going up Not because the short end was going down When the short end goes down it means Something's in the Eon something in the Economy has been broken and and the FED Needs to Pivot to fix it to go back to Looser monetary policy so that all these All these riskier companies don't all go Bankrupt right it's the same reason why You know like the Russell If you go look At the Russell 2000 think about it like Altcoins like this is alt Co like all Companies um divided by the S&P and I've Said this many times but you'll see here That the Russell did not buy B out last Cycle until the last rate cut until the Last rate cut you can think about it Like similar like the Bitcoin dominance Right like the the the blue the the Relatively safer S&P 500 was Outperforming the Russell until the FED Started cutting rates Aggressively right so that's kind of the Idea but when you look at the yield Curve it's inverted still the problem is That when you go back to Prior Recessions when it was Inverted it meant recession was going to Happen eventually and I didn't tell you Exactly when told you it was going to Happen eventually right here's the uh Here's the one before the crash here's

The one before the financial crisis and Then here's the one Today and again looking at treasury yeld Spreads you can see this is the three Monon and the 10 year we can be inverted For a long time before you know before a Recession arrives there's no way to know Exactly when it's going to Happen and here you can see we were sort Of on the path to invers un inversion And then we We've Come Back down Here which I think to some degree could Be due to um Yellen issuing shorter Duration than the market was expecting I Said that I made a video on it I said That's actually both bullish for stocks And bonds at the beginning of the month And it has been right like stocks are up 10% or more um like the S&P is up 10% You know the bond Mark like TLT is up Five or 6% Um and so it was bullish and it was Bullish for stocks and bonds and I Guess so going back to Ada um I guess I'd like to summarize it like This my intentions this year have not Been anti- Altcoins in any by any stretch of the Imagination my Intentions were to help protect the Satoshi Valuation of portfolios because I saw my Own Satoshi valuation the Bitcoin

Valuation Get Wrecked in 2018 2019 and 2020 I would have been so much better Off ignoring altcoins until looser Monetary policy yes I would have missed Out some crazy rallies in the altcoin Market but I didn't care right I didn't Care if you think the FED will engineer A soft Landing which is theoretically Possible if you look at treasur old Spreads we had an inversion a inverted Yield curve in 1966 and no recession now Unfortunately we still got a recession But it waited another two years and the S&P put in unfortunately a lower low and Then it put in another lower low four Years after that right I don't really Want to see an inflationary decade like The 70s where you just go put in higher Highs and higher and lower lows for 10 Years I prefer not to see That the way that we don't see that is By the FED doing what they need to do And keeping monetary policy tight for as Long as they can to crush inflation Because once inflation is Crushed then we can go into a more Durable phase of economic Expansion as we go into slightly looser Monetary policy that's probably not as Loose as we had last cycle in the hopes That inflation doesn't come rowing Back so if you think think that the FED Will engineer a soft Landing in

2024 then I can Understand why these valuations are Attractive right and the way that you Can say all Right makes sense to have Some if you think that a hard Landing Arrives in 2024 like 2020 then you Probably want to stay Bitcoin heavy Just in case right and the reason you Stay Bitcoin heavy is a hedge because if There is no hard Landing Bitcoin leads The bull market not Altcoins but if there is a hard Landing Altcoins will bleed out More so if you're a soft Landing Proponent the way you hedge is you have Ada But you also have some cash as a Hedge in case this goes down in case the Hard Landing Occurs if you're a hard Landing Proponent then my argument is that well You just have Bitcoin because or you have you either Are 100% cash or you have cash and Bitcoin my preference is to have cash And Bitcoin right uh I mean I also have Some I mean I have I have stake pools Right it's not like I don't have any Ada But this is Ada from you know from last Cycle Um so if you're a hard Landing proponent Then the way you hedge generally

Speaking in my opinion would be you Would have a Bitcoin heavy crypto Portfolio to give you exposure to the Potential Upside but minimize your downside risk In case the hard Landing occurs if you Want to have a hedge with Ada even if You're a hard Ling proponent I can Understand that view too okay I'm going To try to become less rigid in My Views Especially as we get out into the uh Into the having year because the you Know the longer we go on then you know The risk becomes to the upside Right but I I still can't shake this Feeling of like Well when's the when are we going to get The resolution of the yield curve you Know I don't know if we can go into a Bull market like this right while the Yield Curve is looking like this Maybe we can you know I don't know maybe We can but I would tend to believe that We need some type of resolution there at Some Point just so we can get back to looser Monetary policy and and higher risk Assets don't just bleed against lower Risk assets forever right where even the Russell 2000 can maybe start to Outperform Apple for a while because we Know that hasn't happened in a long time Right and same thing goes with

Altcoins so that's my non-financial Advice I I hope that you can understand The views that I've I've communicated This year I hope that I haven't you know Been too overly critical of altcoins but I can understand why you might think That my Motivation has come from my own Experiences where I was super bullish Even expecting a higher low got excited About a golden cross And then the recession arrived and I Thought Bitcoin heavy would have been so Much better this cycle I wanted to Communicate what I learned the hard way To everyone else so that you could Better navigate the crypto birs and if You had converted your Bitcoin or sorry Your altcoins to Bitcoin in q1 of 2022 Which is when I said was the Um was you know when alt coins were were Were not worth the risk Anymore yeah I mean even even missing Even missing the absolute low right but You know even if you just did it in in Say like February right if you converted Your Ada to bitcoin and then you Converted it back today I mean you're Literally getting three times the amount Of ADA and all you had to do was sit in Bitcoin for the last two years that's All you had to Do you didn't have to worry about the USD valuation of Bitcoin even though it

Went all the way down to 15K and then Now back up to 38k all you had to do was Get out of vaults put it into Bitcoin Wait convert Back magic you have three times the Amount of ADA right shouldn't be such a Controversial viewpoint but it is Um so I guess what I will say is going Forward I'm not going to be as rigid in My Views um ideally speaking it's I'm not Promising that I won't occasionally fall Back into it but I will say that I I Think my strategy for me is worked out But I understand for other people why They don't like it you know Um but that's where I stand I'm a Product of my past experiences I see the People that are bullish today and that Was me four years ago that was me and You should follow these people right Because you might we might not have a Recession there's there's several good People that that put out videos and they They sort of focus on on cardano I Actually pulled a couple of them up so Go check them out uh you have crypto Crow he talks about cardono all the time And then you also have uh crypto Capital Venture they both talk about about Cardono I think that's mostly what they Talk about so go follow those guys okay Go follow those guys look to see what They're saying about ADA

If we don't get a recession next year Then you know the sort of the bullish View is probably the correct view if There is a recession then you're likely Going to get one final selloff is my Guess just like we got in 2020 so we'll See if that happens um no promises right Fractals are made to be broken rate Fractals don't play out forever so don't Assume that just because it's playing Out like this so far that it has to play Out like that forever normally by the Time we notice these fractals they stop Playing out anyways so you shouldn't you You certainly shouldn't take it to the Bank um because I know they they're not Going to cash it in but just look to see What happens over the next couple of Months and if you want to get a position In altcoins of course you're free to do That just understand what the downside Risk is if if a recession arrives if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and again check out the sale On into the cryptoverse premium at into The cryptoverse . we'll see you guys Next time bye


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