Bitcoin: Social Risk

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be looking at the social risk if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out the sale On into the cryptiverse premium at into The let's go ahead and Jump in now the social risk is in my Opinion A very interesting indicator because it It tells us whether people are not Coming into the space or leaving the Space right So for instance if more people are are Coming into the cryptiverse then leaving Then we would expect a social risk to go Up as you can see like we saw back in 2020 and and early 2021 but at some Point you reach a Tipping Point where There are more people leaving than Coming into the cryptiverse and when That happens of course the social risk Goes down now in this case the social Risk is made up of five different Metrics that includes YouTube Subscribers to crypto YouTube channels YouTube views to crypto YouTube channels Twitter followers to various crypto Analysts on Twitter To exchanges on Twitter and to layer Ones on Twitter And in addition to all of this we

Account For the fact that from one cycle to Another or as a function of time the the Base grows okay so you could think about It as like the fair value the um you Know the the regression model fit to Non-bubble data if you will but the fair Value or you know what it should be Based on just increasing Um you know increasing out option over Time we've accounted for that so when we Look at the social risk we're not Expecting it to go to the levels In terms of YouTube views that it was at Back in 2018 but we might expect the Social risk to be back to the 0 to 0.1 Wristband for instance if you were to Look at the YouTube views chart this is What it looks like right so this is is You know total you to your you know new YouTube views for all these crypto YouTube channels you see down here I'm Not expecting YouTube views to go back You know to only four thousand or Something a day right it would it would Likely be nonsensical to assume that That is a likely outcome but It would be fair to say that we have Been seeing lower highs and lower lows On this metric since you know since Early to mid 2021 And therefore the social risk has been Dropping right so when everyone is Tuning in to watch it means the risk is

High because at some point you reach a Level where you know no one knew is Going to come in so whoever's coming in They're here right at these Mania phases And then as people leave That's where the altcoin Reckoning takes Place right and that's why you see the Bitcoin dominance go up you like I snuck It in because people leave and when People leave the buying the buying Pressure for for all these all coins That diminishes quicker than it might For Bitcoin because Bitcoin is the Blue Chip and therefore ought Bitcoin pairs Tend to bleed now you can also look at a 30-day moving average of this metric and It cleans the data up a little bit Sort of zooming in here you can see the 30 day we had a high of 1.38 million Back in early 2022 and then and then we Were closer to around 1 million in in May of 2022 and again about 1 million in December 2022 a day and then by April About 921 000 and then in August at 731 000. so you can see it's putting in Lower highs and you can also see that It's putting in lower lows right like This low of here was 6.58 Um we put in this low right here at 587. Currently we're at at 621 although There's a good chance we'll take out These prior this prior low in in due Time the current the current value as of Today is is in the five to six hundred

Thousand view range so it's an Interesting metric because it tells you You know when people are coming in Or leaving the cryptiverse right And it's always good it's always Worthwhile sort of cleaning up with a Moving average because on any given day You don't really know I mean it could be Based on when that person just happened To release a video but if you clean it Up over say like a seven day time frame It tends to it tends to filter out the Noise and you know if we were to just Look at my channel You can see that you know my channel To some degree Has been stuck in traffic on struggle Street in terms of maintaining Viewership to the channel now I don't Monetize you know these views right I Don't have AdSense turned on but Still I mean you can see that it you Know once upon a time This channel is getting around 300 000 Views Right and it could it was getting done Potentially a day Down to 40 to 50 40 to 50K now okay So it's dropped quite a lot now be that As it may The YouTube views risk is the only thing Holding the social risk off of zero at The current time Go look at the at the constituents of

The social risk YouTube Subs risk Is at zero No one's no one really knews subscribing Some sometimes you know you might get a Few people here a few people there but Net across the channels is basically Nothing you know no one's really no one Knew it was really coming into the Cryptographers right now which is why I've said it forever right you know if You're buying all coins during a phase When the social is going down who do you Think the marginal buyer is right if People are leaving and not coming in Now look at Twitter analysts right it's A zero basically right it's a zero Twitter exchanges risk Is at zero People aren't people aren't following Layer ones To zero YouTube views Risk 0.228 YouTube views risk Still Remains relatively elevated right I mean You can see the general Trend spend a Downtrend fairly consistent downtrend And it just continues to go lower and Lower lower I don't know if it's going To go all the way all the way to the 0 To 0.1 wristband it would make me feel Comfortable if it did because then I Could say well you know it's it's been

Depleted quite a bit and once you hit Rock bottom the only written Direction Really left to go is up assuming that The you know sort of the the function That accounts for growing adoption from One cycle to another is correct but that How that one hasn't bottomed out yet I Guess what I'm trying to say is if you Could stop watching you know these YouTube videos that would be great Because in the social risk would Actually start to go down even more now What's interesting is if you look at the Total social risk When a 30-day SMA We are about to enter the lowest Wristband okay we're not there yet now Instantaneous value we are we're at 0.034 risk instantaneously But to clean it up a little bit because It's a it's a stochastic process just Take a 30-day moving average And look to see where it is We are knocking on the door Of the 0 to 0.1 wristband in terms of The social risk getting there in a Sustained way not just like a spike down Because you can see you know you can see That we had a spike down to these levels You know back in in July back at you Know 31k And then it came out of it and now we're Back in it now the longer we spin here

That's where apathy starts to really set In The reason why that's important is Because markets will eventually bottom On apathy and we talked about this Previously if you look at a lot of these Prior moves with bitcoin's price Historically at least for the last Couple years you know when bitcoin's Price would go down this blue line Social risk would go up right price down Risk up price down November 2022 risk up Now we have price going down But risk social risk is also going down So again we we're starting to enter into This apathy stage instantaneous social Risk says we're already there but 30-day Moving average which is a good way to Clean it up Still suggests that we are about to Enter it okay now last cycle you can see That the social risk went to the 0 to 0.1 wristband A few times right we went there in December 2018 and in February of 2019 we Also went there in October of 2019 in November of 2019. Right Price was in a downtrend In 2019. even though social risk was Going back up so what that showed us was Social Divergence There were people coming into the space

In late 2019 and early 2020. even though The altcoin market in Bitcoin was going Down you could see that people were Starting to trickle back in and the Inflows of people into the crypto verse Now exceeded the outflows And all it took was a little bit of QE To kick us off into a bull run But we were already trending in that Direction social interest in crypto was Already trending up In late 2019 and early 2020. well before QE happened Does it not seem likely that something Similar might happen again where the Social risk at some point Bottoms out Starts to slowly Trend back up all coins Still bleed And then QE comes back and we go into Another Bull Run Likely caused by a recession now I'm not Suggesting that the FED will print six Trillion dollars or anything like that Immediately when when we go into a Recession like they did last time but What I am suggesting is that a recession Would likely cause the FED to to Consider their their QT stance and their Their High interest rate stance and they Will likely hold rates as high as they Can for as long as they can just to try To bring down inflation but there's also This other reality that at some point

They will likely pivot Now they're not going to Pivot because Your altcoin is down 98 but they will Pivot if if the s p starts to take a hit Or if the labor market starts to take a Hit and if the labor Market's taking a Hit then the S P's taking a hit but in Reality if the Labor's Market if the Labor Market's taking a hit it's Probably because the s p already took a Hit and people are cutting costs Therefore it leads to more layoffs which Then people see that and then the s p Goes down right and it's sort of like This brutal cycle but when you look at The social risk You can see how it has been trending Down and it's been putting in lower Highs and lower lows since mid 2021. but In terms of the 30-day moving average of It we are about to enter into the lowest Wristband I would suggest That the entrance into the lowest Wristband will likely represent the Depression phase In this cycle it will likely represent The depression phase the time based Capitulation Price based capitulation is only one Part of the puzzle you know if if the Markets were to crash 80 percent and Then they went straight back up that Wouldn't be painful enough for Market

Participants to create another healthy Market to lead to a more sustained Bull Run What does lead to another sustained Bull Run is time based capitulation where the People who who maybe took on more risk Than they should have end up becoming For sellers at a bottom potentially in a Recession or a recession scare it's not That they want to sell it's that they're Forced to because they took on too much Risk at the wrong time and they're Forced to sell to pay for their other Expenses these four sellers Can cause the market to behave in a way That a lot of people might not think Makes sense a lot of you probably have Looked at your altcoin and you're like Well what the hell is going on why does It keep going down you know everyone on Twitter seems relatively bullish about The altcoin market so why does it keep Going down remember there's a lot of People that came in 2021 and they just Bought a lot of random or a lot of Random all coins and they just keep Having to sell them to sort of Finance Whatever you know whatever lifestyle They're they're living okay there are a Lot of people that probably fall into This category And and that is a reality that we have To live with and so when we look at this Metric

We can see that a lot of that excess Even including growing adoption from one Cycle to another but a lot of that Excess Has been taken out But there still might be just a little Bit more to go okay Another few months to go You can see last cycle we actually did Go all the way down right to just off of Zero risk Right Now We've gone down to about 0.0307 0.0307 And the only reason we're not at zero as I said earlier Is because the YouTube views risk is Still elevated So if this one Were to roll over even harder then this One would likely bring that social risk Down to to closer to zero than it Already is right and we can also Imagine A scenario where in 2024 and we get the The Bitcoin having coming up we can Imagine a scenario where the social risk Starts to go back up And then Bitcoin Leads the Bull Run right Bitcoin leads the Bull Run After QE comes back not before after Okay so Let's just be aware of where the social

Risk is and and you know continue to Monitor it continue to see at what point Does it start to show higher lows Remember last cycle Is started putting in higher lows before QE returned but the market did not find Its last capitulation Until after QE returned Bitcoin put in a higher low A lot of all coins put in lower lows It all depends on how Hawkish the FED chooses to be on what Ultimately that level will be and I Cannot tell you people you know people Look and say well you know can you tell Me if it's going to be a higher low or a Double bottom or lower low like look I Don't know I think you should be Prepared for all three scenarios because It's going to depend on the reaction Function of the Federal Reserve they're More hawkish now than I've ever seen Them be okay So you should be prepared for all three Scenarios and in the summer of 2022 I Said guys 17 and a half's not the bottom I didn't think it was I said it's either Going to be the low in Q4 or the low That comes after that if we get a Recession and I don't know how that's Going to materialize okay last cycle we Got a recession and it was a higher low Because the FED printed quickly the Cycle before that it was a double bottom

In a recession scare okay so I don't Know what it's going to be this time I Just want you to be open-minded and to Look to the data look to the data to win The social risk starts to go back up When it does that will represent social Divergence it might still mean the Prices in the short term are going down But it would at least give us confidence That people are coming back Into the cryptiverse Thank you guys for tuning in make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and again check out The sale on into the cryptoverse premium At into the


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