Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin dubious Speculation if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and check out The sale on into the cryptoverse premium At intothe cryptoverse decom Bitcoin is Currently uh just over $45,000 we have discussed this idea of Getting a rally into the spot ETF And I don't typically talk about the News that much but yesterday there was a Tweet from the SEC saying in fact that The spot ETF had been approved and then Just a few moments later they they Deleted that tweet and said that it was That their account had been compromised So you know if you were watching the Markets yesterday especially on some of The lower time frames um like on the Minute time frame you can see you know Just what happened right so so I I think At about 311 Eastern you right here uh The SEC tweeted it out and then Bitcoin Popped up just south of 48k and then it came crashing all the Way back down to you know to below 45k But what's interesting is this Wick Right here so not the low one but the One that just came after it that Wick Corresponded to when they came out and And said oh you know just kidding this Is not actually approved so quite a lot

Of uh mental gymnastics yesterday on on Twitter uh especially as the market made These considerable moves and you know I I know we follow Bitcoin dominance quite A lot and you know it's not my you know It's not my goal to just not talk about It when it's down and and so I'm this is Not a Bitcoin dominance video but I I do Just want to say you know it it did take A pretty big hit it's down to 53.6 one Uh perc um still well up on the month But and again I'm not even sure if you Go look at like a minute time frame for Dominance it'd be interesting to see What dominance did uh during that time So you can see that dominance actually Wicked all the way up to about 55.3 Three% so I believe that's a new a new Cycle High 55.3 three the weird thing That trading view does I guess is that They don't always include lower time Frame stuff like on on minute time frame And so while it did go up to 55.3 three On the minute chart you can see that on The Daily it it more or less topped out at Around half you know at around a percent Below that so just wanted to provide an Update there I know it has taken a bit Of a hit recently one of the things that We've mentioned many times are are are At least Comparing this business cycle with the Last business cycle and and it's it's

It's it's a very difficult thing mainly Because you can you can always look back At at the last cycle and say all right Well you know when the FED pivoted that Was not that great for for for Bitcoin The problem is we don't know when that's Going to be right I mean we can we can Speculate on it and and the market is Always speculating on it if you were to Go look today the market is saying about A 60 you know if you combine these two Probabilities right about a 70% chance Or so 69 a half% chance that we'll have A rate cut by March the reason I Mentioned that Is because again last cycle I I I cannot Promise what's going to happen this Cycle but last cycle Bitcoin found a Local high just before the First Rate Cut the problem of course is we don't Know when the First Rate Cut's going to Come like I mean if it comes in March Then that and it were to play out in a Similar manner as over here then you Know the expectation could be that Bitcoin puts in some type of local top a Month before that right so like in February but if on the other hand the First Rate cut doesn't come until say May which at the current time there's Only about a 5% chance 4.9% chance that The First Rate Cuts not till May but it Doesn't come till May then um you know a Month before that would be April which

Of course is is the the month in which The Bitcoin having will occur to me it Certainly seems like this cycle more Than others is much more driven by by Narratives than than anything else it Seems like we're just constantly chasing One narrative to another whether it's The spot Bitcoin ETF whe whether it's People speculating on on a spot ether ETF whether it could be the Bitcoin Having and so you know some people have Have sort of argued that dominance could Top out um you know around the spot ETF And look guys anything's possible I I'm Not going to sit here I'm not going to Say that I can't but if you were Thinking of what other narrative could Be you know could push it up perhaps the Having would be one to to look towards But that's still you know that's still Three months away one of the things that I I think that it's worthwhile to look At and this is always in terms of Managing the downside risk is is just Again sort of an acknowledgement that if We were to go below the 8we SMA which Again we're not there yet but if we were To go below it historically that means At least in recent years when you go Below 8 we you tend to then go to the The bull market sport ban right so going Below the 8 we tends to take you to the Bull market sport ban we're not there Right I mean like even though there's

Been times over here we we got below the 8 we we then went down to that 20we SMA Or 21 week EMA or even below it we're Still holding the 8we SMA as support Right so the market is still trending Right now the 8we SMA is currently at Around at just over 42k so the argument Of course is so long as Bitcoin stays Above 42k then we're still above the 8we and It's not clearly riskof Dynamics just Yet and it's important that we you know We acknowledge that because there are Certain metrics that if they were to Give the signal of risk off it could Imply that Bitcoin needs to go back down And and recheck with its bull Mark sport Band which it hasn't really checked in With since October now some of those Riskof indicators that we've discussed One of which got a bounce today right so The ether Bitcoin valuation had a had a Pretty large move here after taking out The June 2022 low so one of the things That I've mentioned before is that if we Get a weekly close below the June 2022 Low then that at least in my view would Imply a risk off signal as you can see That last cycle when we finally closed Below the this low right here from November of 2017 when we finally Clos Below it if you were to Overlay Bitcoin USD onto that Chart closing below it essentially gave

Us a a a a riskof signal right and it it Didn't mean that Bitcoin didn't hang Around that area for a while in fact it Did I mean it it even went back up and And put in a double top after ether Bitcoin broke down the thing to look for Today though is that while we have Wicked below it we just put out a video On ether Bitcoin just yesterday while we Did Wick below it we have not put in any Daily closes below it and so until There's a daily close or sorry until There's a weekly close and we haven't Put any weekly closes above it we also Haven't put daily closes below it either But until there's a weekly close below This level then it still has not yet Given the same type of riskof signal That we got over here okay so again so Far it's just simply a wick nothing more Nothing less it's just a wick and I'm Not overly interested in wicks in the Video on The Ether Bitcoin pair you know I said that it can always get a bounce Back up and and rally back up to that Bull market support band which is still Higher than where it is right now for The for the ether Bitcoin pair so again One of the riskof signals is would be in My opinion would be a weekly close by Ether Bitcoin below the June 2022 low That hasn't happened yet right and so It's important to respect that and say All right well until that happens that

Riskof signal has you know has not yet Materialized in the same way that it did Last cycle now again if Bitcoin were to Go below the 8we you likely go to the Bullmark wor band but as long as it's Above the 8we it's always interesting to Think about like well what are the next Targets for Bitcoin USD so long that it Can hold that 8we SMA and of course There's you know there's plenty of them That we can we can take a look at um one Of which is is actually more so based on The total market cap but you can kind of Apply it uh to bitcoin fairly easily if You were to look at let me go to a Weekly time frame of total Market you Can see actually that uh if we connect The dots right so just sort of Connecting the dots at the tops there Here and here and then connecting the Bottoms at least the weekly close you Can see that the 2019 rally that topped Out just before the First Rate cut Arrived topped out at the midpoint of This trend line now the midpoint of this Trend line this week would be about 1.9 Trillion or so so from the current Price to get to 1.9 trillion the market Would have to move up let me zoom in Here so I can get it a little bit more Accurate because I'm not I'm not really Really it's hard to see exactly where it Is right so right now that would Correspond to about a 14 to 15% move to

Get you to the total market cap of 1.9 Trillion now remember that's just total Market if Bitcoin were to go up 15% and Total Market stays constant then you Still haven't hit that level but if Bitcoin were to see a rise up to you Know let's say 15% that puts it in the Low 50k range right the low 50k range so The low 50k range assuming that it can Lift the rest of the asset class up Commensurate with itself the low 50k Range would put total market cap at sort Of the midpoint of this channel which Again you can see that it has it has Held some type of significance back in August 2022 and in in June of 2019 and Of course in July of 2018 so that I I think would be a Relevant level to sort of keep in mind Is total market cap getting up to the Midpoint of this channel um other than That I mean you know we can always go Look at at at some of the other metrics Some of which are are more interesting I I think than others um one of which if Would it would be that if we were to go Over to uh some of the charts over here One of which is the running one-year Roi That's currently coming in at Around um let me see if it'll load here Yeah at around 2. 588 okay so it is getting kind of Extended but you can see that the last Couple of Cycles it did go a little bit

Above that if you were to compare it to A similar Point um before getting a Pullback now remember Bitcoin started to Rally in January of 2023 really starting Around this time so if the one-year Roi Is going to go up from here then the Bitcoin the price of Bitcoin would have To go up uh quicker otherwise the Running oneye Roi will Top out for Instance if you were to project out a Price even at the current prices let's Just even put in 40 let's just even put In 48k right if you were to put in a Price of 48k a month from Now you're still going to see the one- Year Roi come back down because again in January of 2023 we saw Bitcoin rally so That's often times you'll see Bitcoin Gets a pullback on the the one year Running Roi after you know after a a Year-long rally or so um that's one Metric there there's a few others uh That we could look at as well um one of Which is taking the ROI from the 2022 Low so if you do that and just comparing It to the last two cycles zooming in you Can see we're we're actually still in Between the ROI of the last two cycles So we're above cycle three uh but below Cycle two or sorry below cycle 4 right So you can see right here the purple Line This is the current cycle uh green Line is last cycle and then the orange

Line is a cycle before that and you can See the distinct characteristics of them Like last cycle we of course had the Pandemic drop cycle before that Bitcoin Just sort of slowly trended um and then Eventually got another another move up Uh on day you know in the in the day 500 Range or so and again right now we're Currently on day uh 425 so you know day 500 that that would be getting you Closer to you know to the having right Day 500 because I mean that would be About what 3 months from now 3 months From now so you know when I look at at At these sorts of of of charts and and Think about what are the most likely Outcomes um if Bitcoin were to Accelerate to the upside immediately Let's say on spot ETF approval or Something uh then it might need to cool Down closer to the having But if on the other hand it doesn't do That and it just kind of Trends sideways For a couple months then you could make The case that it'll make that move going Into the having and so a lot of it again Is is very much narrative driven right It's very much narrative driven and I Just go back to these you know these These ideas of of what are various Signals that could be interpreted as Riskof one of which is the breakdown of Ether Bitcoin on the weekly time frame But that hasn't happened you know and as

As much as I would like to see it break Down because I think it it it it makes The most sense to me I also have to be Honest and say Well it hasn't happened Yet and you know this is a pretty big Move by The Ether Bitcoin Pair I'm not I mean I'm not going to you Know pretend like it's not um if we were To look at the daily on this it's not Like we haven't had these moves and we We've seen ether Bitcoin you know slowly Go down and then just get a crazy move To the upside um is what it does right And again if you were to look at at the The relative strength index on on The Ether Bitcoin pair you know really going All the way back to the merge maybe even Before the merge it is you know it has Been putting in a lot of lower highs in Terms of that daily RSI and I did say in The video you know if if ether Bitcoin Does get a bounce after taking out these Prior lows you can see every time it Puts in a new low it then gets a bounce Um but if it does take out that low and Gets a bounce I would be looking towards That you know that bull Mark sport band And it's always possible that it comes Back up and and sweeps this level here Right you know comes back up and then And then sort of Fades down again Historically when it bounces like this It then you know takes a little while to Fade back down like it as you can see

Right it it you get a a pretty sharp Bounce and then it and then it takes a While to fade back down right a pretty Sharp bounce and then it takes a long Time for for it to then fade back down To where that bounce actually originated From so just want to point that out so For me what I'm looking for to interpret A potential riskof signal for Bitcoin Would be the weekly close of ether Bitcoin below the June 2022 low and Again that hasn't happened yet um so Until that happens um I I I will still Continue to look at this and say all Right well as long as it's above the Eight-week SMA then the next you know What are the next targets and of course There's other there's other metrics that We could look at as well we could look At the logarithmic aggression rainbow uh The the band up here is is currently Just below 49k yeah so the same band that we Rallied up to in in August 2022 is now Um at around 49k so about you know four Um I guess a little less than $4,000 above where we currently are but Again it's also an increase increasing Value right like the the regression Bands are are moving higher as a Function of time and so that would be a Level uh to keep in mind the other Levels of of Interest would be to sort Of looking just to kind of get an idea

Of what happened last cycle now I go Back to this idea of well what happened Last cycle uh of course does not have to Be what happens this cycle in fact my Base case is that it probably won't be The same thing every every single cycle Seems play out somewhat differently um If you were to take a look look at at The fiber Trac tool Last cycle you can see that Bitcoin Topped out at the 618 actually just a little bit higher Than the 618 retracement um we haven't Reached that level yet we have come Somewhat close but we haven't actually Reached it remember last cycle it went Above that level so the 618 currently is Around 48 and a half um measured from The second peak of course if you measure It from the first Peak we've already Reached the 618 uh which i' I've Previously pointed out but reaching that Level reaching that level Would you know correspond to this Same move here where it takes out that Deadcat bounce high from the bare Market Year right so this is the deadcat bounce High from the bare Market year and it's Trying to take that out and you can see That in 2019 it was able to take out That High just before the First Rate cut Arrived right just before the First Rate Cut arrived you know which occurred in

July so just before that Bitcoin was Able to take out the the q1 deadcat Bounce high from the bare Market year so This time you know the q1 bare Market You know sort of the deadcat Bounce from The bare Market year um is right around 47k or So um yeah right around 47k so we have We actually have already taken that out But again Last cycle it it actually went Above It By about you know 15% or so there's that 15% again right that 15% number kind of Coming back from from Total market cap And seeing where where Above This would It need to go to even reach the you know That part of the of the midpoint and That would be about a 15% move but again The longer it takes the higher Bitcoin Or the asset class would have to go to Reach the midpoint right if it if we Don't reach it till March then that Would imply a 20% move um to reach the Midpoint of that channel so a lot of Things to consider there and again you Know there's always other outcomes as Well in the short term uh for instance There could be a you know a larger Pullback back to the bullmark support Band to check in um before getting a Bounce there we've seen that before and In fact if you were to look at the Short-term bubble risk of Bitcoin what you'll notice is that we

Actually extended to the same level that We extended to back in March of 2023 in Fact right so you know and the first top Here did not actually correspond to that Local top before we then bled back down To the bull market support pan right you Can see it pretty clearly this High here Did not correspond to the top as well so You can kind of see that like it it Looks to me there are some similarities Right you get you get this High the Extension from the 20we SMA right here but it did not Mark the Top for that rally you can see that Bitcoin did extend that rally a bit Further and then it cooled off back down To the bullmark squarepin and then the Same thing over here right like it hit That extension from the 20we and it's Gone up right a little bit more right It's gone up a little bit more we'll see If it if it continues to play out if it Plays out like it did you know about 10 Months ago or so then it would imply you Know within the next couple of weeks or So getting a a larger pullback to that Bull market support ban I will remind You that you know you could always have An example where ether Bitcoin does not Break down in the short term but Bitcoin Still gets a correction right where Bitcoin goes back down and it did not go Up high enough to break ether Bitcoin Off of its

Support and then we have to just kick The can down the road and we try again You know we try again potentially in Another month or two um so I I would be Aware of of that potential idea um as Well and you know and again today could Be a really interesting day if if the Spy ETF is approved right I mean if that Stuff is approved then price action Could be all over the place we saw what Happened on the minute chart earlier Once you know once the market thought it Was approved and then that completely Changed so that's what I'm looking at I'm I'm I'm essentially just looking at At these indicators that we just Discussed looking at like Roi from the Bare Market low um looking at at things Like the the running onee r I um and and There and there here's the short-term Bubble risk that we that we just pulled Up so those are some of the indicators That I'm I'm sort of watching and then Of course there's also just comparing These moves the extension from the 20we Estimate compared to what we did over Here and and also the ether Bitcoin pair Right for me The Ether Bitcoin pair is Is an interesting view into crypto Because I do consider ether a blue ship But it also has been bleeding against Bitcoin since the merge and there's There's definitely some different views Right now um that are are probably

Worthwhile to discuss so so one of those Views that that some people have Speculated on is that this is the low of Ether Bitcoin and guys I mean the Markets humble all of us right I'll be Clear about that I've been bearish on Ether Bitcoin since the merge I do think It's more likely to eventually break Down than up but I also think it's worth Worthwhile to consider other viewpoints And that's why I've said before if you Want to hedge you know it's worthwhile To hedge with that said with that said Risk off signals for Bitcoin and say for The altcoin market last cycle did not Occur until ether Bitcoin broke down on The weekly right until it broke down on The weekly the riskof signal did not Occur and I keep going back to this idea Well you know what if it what if Bitcoin Pops out a local top a month before the First Rate cut just like last cycle and We can look at that and be like all Right well that makes sense that means You know could be you know could be any Time right could be February uh if the Rate cut comes in March but then that's True but then what if the rate cut Doesn't come until May right and then You just you know you kick the can down The road and there are reasons why it Could be delayed until May for instance If if the labor market were to continue To remain tight and the economic data

Comes in exem extremely hot like let's Say inflation we're going to be getting An inflation report relatively soon if That were to come in relatively hot then That could delay that could delay when The First Rate cut will come and if it Does delay when the First Rate cut will Come then it could delay you know the Idea of of when could there be a local Top before the First Rate cut arrives Right so it's just like the market it's Sort of like a game of chicken between Like the Federal reserve and and you Know the the the the stock market Because the stock market just sort of Keeps slowly going higher and the fed You can kind of get the sense that pow Would like to cut because there is some Weakness in the labor market but as long As risk assets keep going up you you Potentially also have the wealth effect Taking place so it's really you know It's it's really a game of chicken to Some degree um one other way to look at The market that I I was looking at Earlier is is to look at The the the relative strength index of Of Bitcoin and actually look to see you Know we've actually on the on the weekly We've actually been overbought since October but as I've said using RSI to to Buy and sell is a Fool's errand right Because it can remain overbought for Months sometimes years can remain

Oversold for months 4 years in fact in 2020 you can see that the weekly RSI Crossed into overbought territory in October which is exactly when it crossed Here you can see that it also did not Durably break down until April so I think the argument would be Well if the First Rate cut arrives in March then perhaps this the weekly RSI Will break down in February but if the First rate does not arrive until May Let's say economic data comes through Such that the FED feels like they have To keep holding until May then perhaps It'll play out something like that where It doesn't the weekly RSI doesn't sort Of fall back down until we get to right Around the time of having um so Different ways to look at it there's Also one other metric just while I'm Thinking about it before I go to to pull Up and that's the fear and greed index Uh we're currently at a at a level of 73 To to look at the the values of it more Specifically you can see that it Actually broke to a new local high uh at 76 to extreme greed which it had not Been at 76 throughout this entire move Um the reason why that's interesting is Because you can see that in 2019 just Before that midcycle top Bitcoin went All the way at the fear and greed went All the way up to 95 so that might be Another riskof signal if it arrives

Would be a a a fear and greed print of In the 90s right in the 90s would be I I I think a a riskof signal so I think I Think it really just depends on on how Long this move takes whether you know Whether Bitcoin can break The Ether Bitcoin valuation down or not I know People are speculating of course on on The same type of spot ETF stuff or Ethereum which could certainly delay Things as well but just trying to be Honest about the market um and and just A reminder you know My Views while I do Feel very strongly about them at times They're often wrong and that's the truth Uh they're often wrong and I just want You to remember that and and I I just Want people to to have a strategy stick To it and in terms of navigating the Market right we can talk about Short-term price action implications of That um but in terms of actually Navigating the market and having Exposure to the market my my my Suggestion would be to just have a a Strategy stick to it and and and ignore Uh all the news and and all that other Sort of stuff uh that's probably your Your best bet anyways if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up And again check out the sale on intothe Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse tocom see you guys next time

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