Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin dubious Speculation if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and check out The sale on into the cryptoverse premium At intothe cryptoverse tocom link is in The description below let's go ahead and Jump in so in this video I just want to Go through a lot of the different Indicators and and levels that we've Been looking at over the last several Months Provide an update on on where we are Today and just take it from there as far As the spot ETF stuff goes I just want To remind people I have no idea you know The resolution of that whether it's Going to be accepted or rejected I don't I have no idea and frankly I don't Really care okay so we're just going to Look at the charts and and stick with That and and hopefully it's it's useful To to you guys so the first thing is um We did get a a little bit of a drop this Morning um it's funny because you know While we did get a drop the weekly Candle as of this point is still green But this drop was about an 11% drop so I Mean it is enough to get people's Attention right it's enough to sort of Get the blood flowing and and make you Wonder like is it is it something more

Or is that it now what's fascinating to Me is when we think about bitcoin price History one of the things that you may Remember is that volatility is not Something that Bitcoin shies away from And in fact back in like 2016 2017 Bitcoin had 30 40% Corrections right This was a a fairly normal thing for Bitcoin to get in 2019 when we had some of these Corrections we had you know 20% Corrections or so right that was a 133% Correction um you know this correction Right here this was about a 20% Correction and then there was a larger Correction of 72% but you might say well that was Because of the pandemic but before the Pandemic even was a thing there was Still a 50% drop but what's interesting Is so far there has not been a 25% Correction in over a year right and I I It's kind of weird to believe I mean it Certainly feels like there has been Right I mean if you think back to Everything we experienced in 2022 If someone told you that Bitcoin did not Have a 25% correction during that time It would almost be hard to believe like It's like well how could that possibly Be true that it did not have even a 25% Correction and you know you can go take A look right I mean there's there's Three main areas where the price of

Bitcoin corrected in February you can See right here that Bitcoin had a 22 a Half% drop or so we then had another Drop right here in April April that Lasted until June that was about a 20% Drop and then we also had another drop Right here that started in July and Lasted until September that was about a 21 and a half% drop so Bitcoin Essentially had three 20% drops in 2023 nothing more right nothing nothing Really more no 25% drops and so because Even in recent history we've seen Bitcoin has dropped 20% it's always Relevant to think well where would a 20% Drop even put Bitcoin from the most Recent High just to keep that level in The back of your mind a 20% drop from This high would put Bitcoin right around 36k 36 37k if it were to go down to 22% Which is what you know one or two of Those last Corrections went to it would Put it back down to about 35k so a Pretty big drop now the thing that we've Talked one of the things we've talked About many many times is the bull market Support ban and the 8-week moving Average okay these are two very Important levels that we've discussed in The past that 8-week moving average and The bullmark sport band now the reason Why we talk about the bull Mark sport Ban is because often times Bitcoin will Pull back to that level right you can

See it had a pull back to that level Right here in March it had a pull back To that level in June of 2023 we broke that level in August of 2023 but we also said we were likely Going to break it back then because Normally in Q3 of the prehab year we go Below the bull market Spore ban that is Nothing new we went into that with that Expectation I was actually surprised That we did not take out this low right Here right we actually came really Really close to it within aund one1 or $200 we did not actually take it out so When we look at Price action today and Just keeping in mind prior moves that We've seen nothing out of the Ordinary from this Wick here down to the Bullmark sport band to the 21 we EMA is About a 20% drop to the 20we estima is About a 25% drop right so that would Still be in line with what we previously Seen now there is the 8we moving average That is currently at just below $41,000 Now the 8we moving average is important Because we've sort of watched how in Some of these prior uptrends that 8we Moving average will hold support but Once it breaks things can become testy Right you know sometimes you get below The8 we and you hold support after the 20we SMA other times you get below it and and There's nothing you know there's there's

There's not there's no Real fight by the Bulls to hold the line So so far remember the 8we moving Average is at around $41,000 it's just Below $41,000 okay so if you start to see Weekly closes below 41k that would imply that at the very Least you could start to see a a Pullback to that bull market support Band so let me tell you what I let me Show you what I mean so if you look back Every time we've dropped below the 8 we We then went to the bull market support Band or lower at least in in this in This move that we've seen here over the Last year so right going below the 8we SMA right here eventually led to the Bull market support band and then going Below the 8we SMA right here eventually Led to the bullmark sport band So that is the question is is do you get A weekly close below that level or not Right so if you don't get a close below That level then nothing's really changed Right I mean nothing's necessarily Really changed at that point um there's Been plenty of times where we you know We sort of went sideways into the 8we SMA maybe got a fake out but then still Continued higher um you know there's Examples over here as well but you can See that a lot of times when the 8we Moving average is is lost it's normally

Just a simple matter of time before we Test that 20we esate okay so that's the First area that I would say is important Is that 8we moving average just below 41k weekly close below that likely means We're going back down at the very least To the bull market support band now in The short term who knows if this is even The local high it could be it certainly Could be and there are reasons to Believe that it could be uh there's also Reasons to believe that it wouldn't be But I will say you know no matter what Your bias is if you want it to be the High you'll find a reason for it to be The high if you don't want it to be the High then you'll find a reason for it Not to be and I I'll show you a couple Of examples okay so for instance If you wanted to go into this and and Try to figure out a reason why it could Be a a local high you could take Something like a fib retracement tool Now you might say well Ben I mean we've Looked at this before we've looked at at It compared to both Peaks but if you Look at the second Peak you can see that The the level has gone up it hasn't even Reached the 618 right so the 618 would Be at around 482k 48.5 okay this is Where the 618 uh FIB retracement level Would be which we clearly have not yet Reached a Counterpoint is to say well What if the first Peak is where we

Should be measuring it from right so if You measure the Fib retracement from the First Peak down here you actually can See that it went to the 618 and then Basically came all the way back down to The 0. five retracement right so a Pretty clear local rejection at the very Least right so that I think is is is one Thing to look at another thing that's Kind of interesting to me is we've Talked a lot about you know the idea of Of a midcycle top and the reason why We've talked about that is because when You look at at at interest Rates and we just look at at at say like The prior cycle and and and again like If you're if you seen these if you've Been watching my videos you already know What I'm going to say but the general Idea as we've discussed many many many Times is that there is a reasonable Chance not something to take to the bank But there's a reasonable chance that Bitcoin puts in some type of midcycle Top around the time that rate Cuts begin Or maybe just before rate Cuts begin Okay now the market currently thinks That the First Rate cut is not going to Happen until March I don't know when It's going to happen it could be March That's probably you know that's probably The base case it could be may it could Even be January depending on where the Jobs data comes in this week right I

Mean like if the unemployment rate Prints 4% then maybe they would even cut In in January but for now you know the Base case Still Remains March if you Think about where Bitcoin put in its Midcycle top last cycle it occurred a Few weeks before Rate Cuts began right so local High then rate Cuts began and then we Bottomed out after rate Cuts ended Essentially or around that Time so that's one reason sort of be on The lookout right on the lookout for Something like that and you know it's so Hard to know if if it's already occurred It's hard to know if there'll be some Type of you know approval with with the Spotf and then everyone will just rush In and and lead to then a final you know A final move before a larger pullback I Don't know I I I really don't but I will Say that you know sort of the thesis That I've talked about for a long time Is some type of midcycle Top just as rate Cuts arrive now that Might seem counterintuitive rate Cuts Would imply looser monetary policy which Therefore should be good for risk assets Right well a lot of times The reason it's not good for risk assets Is because the fed's not normally Willing to cut enough in order for to Make a difference you think about it why Would the FED cut if the economy is

Strong right if you think about it why Would they cut it's probably because They think that the economy is not as Strong as some of the data would maybe Lead you to believe and so what they'll Often do is they'll start cutting ahead Of that now if they start to cut it's Sort of an acknowledgement that that the Economy is starting to show signs of Weakness but the issue is if they're Only going to cut 25 basis points or 50 Basis points it's not like that's going To move the needle on the US economy you Would probably need several hundred Basis points for it to actually make a Difference so that's often the reason Why when you get rate cuts the market Doesn't even find a local low because It's just simply not enough to move the Needle So that is the question is is will you Know is this playing out in a similar Manner where we find some type of local High just before rate Cuts begin so I Would keep an eye on that 8-week moving Average and if we fall below it then the Bull market support band is where you Would look to If We Hold the 8we moving Average and we get weekly closes above It for the next couple of week you know Going into whatever the resolution is to The spot ETF then you could always make The case of of of you know of of Bitcoin's price still staying strong for

For a little bit longer before a larger Pullback and you might say well does Does Bitcoin have to have a larger Pullback Well one of the things we've mentioned Is that you Know often times you will see you know After a a a move higher you will get a Cool off period and and you can see Right here like if you take it from this Low to this low it's about 15 weeks this Low to this l low um was about 14 weeks And then that loow to this load right Here was about 13 weeks so you got about 13 to 15 weeks between these prior lows And we're already at 16 weeks and there Hasn't really Been a drop at all I mean you know there Was this drop right here so if you want To say that that was the drop then it Occurred after 13 weeks but if that is All that you get then clearly the market Is sort of deviating from the pattern That it was you know that it was Previously you know sort of respecting About you know about what 3 months three To four months between these you know Between these larger drops that always Corresponded with interacting with the 20we ese Andor 20we EMA in some way okay And again the 20we ese is at 33,900 the 21e EM is at 35,800 so it's a pretty big spread there About a $2,000 range and and and you

Know it's still well below where we Currently are so that's so relevant I I You know I think to think about is if we Drop below the 8 we that is where I Would in fact look now remember if you Look at the FIB retracement tool from The first Peak it gets you right it gets You it shows you that we've already gone To the 618 if you take it from the Second Peak right if you take it from This peak right Here we haven't right and it would it Would be all the way up at like 482k so you know a much a much higher Level than the current prices if it were To make it to the 618 from the second Peak but you know it's it's impossible To know you know if if if one is more Relevant than the other and it's also Fair to say that those retracement Levels might not play out at all anyways So I just want you to see that in terms Of these prior moves if you look at like Say the short-term bubble risk we talked About you know something similar Happening where you know you get that First move up and then you get a larger Move up but remember this this peak here On the extension from the 20we moving Average did not correspond to the high You can see that a few weeks later we Put in a slightly higher high before Fading to that bull market support band Right and so far the same thing has

Happened because you know this is a Slightly higher high and you know the Question now is is does it fade back Down to the 20we SMA over the next few Weeks so that's basically what happened Over here right is is you got your first Move up the extension from the 20 week Was what like so if you if you take it From down here the extension was about 40% or so just like it was right here Right about a 40% extension but in both Cases while it extended 40% from the 20we SMA it did not mark the local high And in fact the local high Occurred Here four weeks Later so we're now at four weeks later So are we here right are we right here Is is the question is it is it is it Emulating what occurred earlier in the Year where you get your initial Spike up 40% above the 20we SMA you consolidate For a few weeks And then you get a larger pushup but the Extension from the 20we is not as much As it was during the initial move and Then it fades back down so that I I I Think is is is what to look for and look If the spot ETF is rejected then of Course that would be a great narrative Sort of a company bitcoin price action Back to the downside if it's approved Then you could always take out you know You could always take out the local high

But or maybe it's just to sell the news I don't know but that I think is is is Sort of things to look at and say well Look I mean this is what happened last Year and and maybe it'll happen again um It's funny because again people a lot of Times it's like it's hard to imagine uh For a lot of people it's hard to imagine The price going back down if it's only Been going up for you know two to three Months straight and then and then Bitcoin you know it can't eventually Make that Move Um I also you know I also wanted to Mention that you still have your Logarithmic regression um uh so this This is the fair value logarithmic Regression Bandit and what's interesting Is you know it's it's basically getting Hung up right here at that that fair Value this is this thing was fitted back In like 2019 so forgive me for you know This right here I mean this was also Below right here but it's interesting Because this level is the same level That got rejected at right here so it's You know Bitcoin struggling to get to Get above that right now um if you look At at the regression rainbow You can see that it's it's struggling to Do the same thing right like you know to To get above this band right here that's Sort of where it's still stuck

Between um which coincidentally Corresponds to the two and a half log Line rule from from this peak right here Which is two and a half log lines below This peak which is two and a half log Lines below this peak which is two and a Half log lines below this Peak so it's interesting how this is you Know how this is playing out now I know What you're all thinking you're probably Like well how does the Bitcoin dominance Play in this well I'm glad you asked so You know the Bitcoin dominance is is you Know it's currently at at 52.6% if you followed my stuff for a While you'll know that I've said before That what you'll likely see on larger Pullbacks is Bitcoin dominance going up This is a great example right where Bitcoin is down but dominance is Slightly up if you think back to 2022 There were many times where Bitcoin Would drop and then Bitcoin dominance Would go down now you're seeing periods Where Bitcoin drops and Bitcoin Dominance goes up and in fact if you Look closely at this Wick by Bitcoin You'll see that it's it's actually you Know it went slightly below this wig From December 18th um not as bad as the Wick from December 11th but if you look At like ethereum look what's going on I Mean this Wick takes you all the way Back to November

7th so the Market's getting a little Jittery right I mean there's no there's No denying it I mean this is and again We we'll get into this in a minute but Bitcoin is relatively stronger than the Rest of the asset class okay relatively Than the collective altcoin Market yes I'm sure there's some altcoins that are Up today you know I'm sure there's Plenty that that barely even blinked on This drop but we know that most of them Saw a larger drop than Bitcoin because The Bitcoin dominance is up okay so the Thing that that I I go back to and I I I Go back to it time and time again Especially as it relates to the Dominance of Bitcoin is you know what's Going to happen if you do get a larger Pullback right what would happen to the Altcoin market and I mean as you can see Today the altcoin market is a lot more Jittery than Bitcoin I mean again look At bitcoin's drop compared to this move Over here and then look at ethereum Yes I mean it it's recovered a lot of it But this is a big wick you know this is A big wick and and so was this one where Bitcoin dropped 11% today Ethereum that was a 22% drop right so One of the things that I've mentioned Before is that and again I I I get into A lot of trouble for saying this and and And it and it and it's a great dunking Point for my critics but one of the

Things that we have seen in the past There's no guarantee that it happens This time but one thing that we've Historically seen is a secondary scare I Have no idea if it's going to happen um I we've I've seen it happen many many Times and and when it has happened um Basically no one thinks it's going to Happen because we've only gone up for so Long that everyone thinks that it's Immune to ever going back down and so What ends up happening is Bitcoin gets Some type of like 50% correction just When no one's expecting it right like Just as everyone's saying buy the dip um Then you get a larger correction and so I just I I don't know if it's going to Play out like that or not I gave you Know I I I I talked about it a lot that That sort of the window for it would be From Q3 of last year through about the First half of this year would sort of be That window if it's going to happen you Would expect to see it happen um but We'll see I mean there's there's Certainly no guarantee and you know to Be intellectually honest with Myself a a move back to 38k or 35k is Not a is not a scare I mean this is just What we've seen Right a move from 46k to 38k is 177% right you could go down 22% And still be at 35k

Hell even a move back to 31k would not be considered in my Opinion sufficient to label it a Secondary scare right it just wouldn't Be the reason is because I mean like Like look at look at 2016 Bitcoin had a a a pullback back to The spot that it finally broke from you Know broke out from right here and maybe I should um right if you see that right So eventually you know it broke out here And then eventually it it retraced all The way back I don't look at that and Say oh there's your secondary scare Right you don't it's just not it's not a Valid way to look at it in order for the Secondary scare to be something that Would be acknowledged you would have to Take out a a a prior low in the Structure of the market and I'm not Saying it has to be this low but it it Would need to be you know a significant Low for it to really be a scare okay if That happens then it's playing out like It always has like it's playing out how It did in Prior Cycles if it doesn't Happen then it's deviating from prior Cycles right because like you can see Over here this drop I mean it it even if You exclude the pandemic it took out That low if you go back you know to to To this over here this low took out that One so that is something that has Historically happened now one thing to

Consider with all of this is that you Know if you go take a look at um let's Go take a look here at Um the social risk so the social risk is Interesting because you know it sort of Came back up to that. three risk level But it hasn't durably broken above that So I'm still of the opinion that we're Kind of at this phase of the cycle right Where social risk goes up as some people Come back to the market but what If in the same way that it happened last Cycle while you get up to that3 risk Level it then sort of Fades back down as Rate Cuts arrive so I I still think that That going to be my base case that we're Just in the process of a of a midcycle Top whether it's rdn or whether it comes Within a week or two or or maybe in a Little longer I don't know but I'm still Of the opinion that that you know that's Kind of where we are um and I will Continue to sort of think that until Until proven otherwise right and I I I'm Open-minded I'd like to think I'm Open-minded to being proven otherwise on That uh but you know it hasn't certainly It hasn't happened yet So with you know with Bitcoin the other Things some of the other things that We've looked at um like if you go look At um sorry Um yeah so if you go look at the running Oneyear rli this is another interesting

Way to look look at at Bitcoin so I Actually clicked on ethereum if you look At at at the the one-ear running Roi you Can see that the current one-ear Roi is Is actually at levels that we have had You know some pullbacks from and it's Not just because bitcoin price has to go Down but it's also because when you look At the reference point a year ago price Was starting to go up so if the if the Price does not go up commensurate with What was going on a year ago then the Oneye ROI will likely start to come back Down so my guess over the next few Months you will see the one-year Roi Come back down the only way that that Doesn't happen is that Bitcoin goes up Quickly enough to keep Pace with a price Appreciation that Bitcoin had a year ago Okay the other thing that you can look At are monthly returns and and and look At at it for let me switch this over to To to crypto but if you look at at Monthly returns and and just look at say Like a monthly count and you you add one When the monthly candle is green Subtract one when it's red interestingly We're at a monthly count of 24 right Which is where the monthly count was Back in March of 2021 and you can see The monthly count topped out at 2020 or At 23 in in 2018 or sorry like late 2017 Early 2018 so I I think that's an Interesting way to look at the market

Too um by the way if if you're curious What this chart is it's sort of just Looking at the ROI to low after Inversion of three Monon 10e yield for The S&P 500 compared to the uh the iial Crisis but I I don't really think that These these analogs never repeat right They you know they all look the same Until a certain point and then they and Then they deviate okay so I wouldn't you Know I wouldn't put a ton of weight into This stuff but it is just something to Sort of think about Um so I'm trying to think if there's Some other charts that that we Should you know briefly talk about or if Or if that's kind of um if this is the Other one I think that you could you Could take a look at and that's Basically just comparing this cycle to The last couple of cycles and this is Kind of where Bitcoin is compared to the Last couple of Cycles so you can see That last cycle there was a pretty big Drop cycle before that there wasn't and So a lot of that depends on you know if Bitcoin you know does it does it get That recession or you know does it get That secondary scare or does it not um And that's something we'll have to you Know of course have to wait see so I I Suppose what I'm you know what i' be Looking for over the next few weeks are You know does the 8we moving average

Hold if it doesn't then there's a good Chance we're going to the bullmark sport Band okay so if the 8we if the 8we does Not hold on the weekly time frame then We're likely going to the 20we SMA because that's what normally happens When the 8 week is broken you'd be hard Pressed to find a time where the 8we Doesn't you know break and then doesn't Event eventually visit within a few Percent of the bull market support band Right like it doesn't always happen but A lot of times it does right like a lot Of times it does happen um and I'm sure We can find exam and even you can see Even over here it happened um like right Here breaking down below down below There um here when it did it there was This one's an example of really where it Wasn't but it came within a few percent So that I think is what you should watch Right if we break below the 8we then the 20e SME is definitely in the cards and If history is any indication breaking The 8we SMA you know if we do go down to The bullmark sport ban that's about a 22% drop uh which is in line with what We saw uh with these drops over Here now the question of course is if we Do drop to the 20we SMA would it hold as Support right that's the bigger question And I think I think the answer to that Will ultimately depend on if the FED Achieves a soft Landing or not if the

FED achieves a soft Landing then you Know there's hope but if not if if They've Overtightened which is a real Possibility based on the context of History then you could go below that and And then you you know you could Potentially come make back in and retest This level and it just depends on on how Far the FED win and you know how far the FED funds rate potentially is above the Neutral rate right so it depends on a Lot of things as to um you know as to Whether Bitcoin would hold that ass Support or not um and you know as as Bitcoin gets this move it'll be Interesting to see How how Bitcoin pairs behave like how Ether Bitcoin behaves uh during you know During a move like that because so far As we pointed out earlier during these Corrections by Bitcoin it seems like Ethereum is getting somewhat jittery Right I mean it's like Bitcoin sneezes And and eth goes down 20% it's kind of interesting when you Think about it because one way to think About the market is to think about you Know who makes up you know the market Participants think about it like the Social risk right like so go to the Social Risk you know when we were over here There were not these big Wicks right not

Not like not like daily wicks in the Same in the same way like you weren't Getting like 20 30% or 25% flushes in a Single day that frequently right I mean It was mostly turning up but what Happened like what what changed in December what well perhaps what changed Is the social risk going back up so Basically like retail coming back and And and and sort of yoloing In and then getting spooked the minute That it drops and then selling and then Leading to a liquidation Cascade which Is often where the secondary scare Materializes from is you know people Late to the party come in they buy the Local high they get scared and then they Panic sell and if it ends up being a Midcycle top then it could be a large Correction just like in 2019 but we'll See you know those are my general Thoughts on the market I I think you Guys pretty much know where I stand on The market Um I don't think it's you know it's not Really that surprising I think my views Um you I I think we're you know we're Near a midcycle top is my guess I don't Know if this is it or if it if it goes a Little bit higher um but once that's in Then I think we have to figure out all Right how much damage did the FED do how You know will they be able to cut Quickly enough to to sort of lead to a

Soft Landing or or not and and that's Where you that's where I currently stand So if you guys like the content make Sure you subscribe give the video a Thumbs up but again check out the sale On into the cryptoverse premium at into The and you can get access to These charts that we've been talking About right you can get access to those And and peruse them at your at your Leisure we'll wrap it up see you guys Next time bye


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