Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin but more Specifically we're going to be Discussing again the Bitcoin dominance As you can see my background has changed Quite a bit it's because I'm of course In uh Miami at the Bitcoin conference I Wanted to remind you that if you are Going to the conference I will be having A a meet and greet on the 20th from 12 30 to 2 30 next to the Bitcoin Inflatable so I will look to see you Guys there I thought it would be prudent To talk about the dominance considering We are here at the Bitcoin conference For 2023 and one of the things we've Talked about for a long time is that This is the phase of the cycle where we Would generally expect the dominance of Bitcoin to push quite a bit higher We have essentially moved from around 38 Percent or so up to around 49 we have Fallen back a little bit down to 48 but You should notice the relative Resilience of the dominance at this time It is not going back down uh to the same You know to the same levels that it used To fall back down to it's in fact Holding support uh where previously Found some level of resistance so I Think it's important to recognize that When Bitcoin pumps up the altcoin market Lags behind it and then when Bitcoin

Falls back down the altcoin market tends To fall even more so the general Expectation in my opinion is that this Will likely continue we will likely see Uh continued relative strength of Bitcoin to the altcoin market and again I think this relative strength will Likely last for many months to come it Doesn't mean that you're not going to See occasional rallies in the altcoin Market of course if Bitcoin USD holds up For any sustained period of time you Will see all coins make some moves but At the end of the day the dominance of Bitcoin should continue to move Higher One of the most common forms of Criticism related to the Bitcoin Dominance theory is well why you talk About it if you can't trade it Well that's not really true I mean There's a lot of different reasons why You talk about the Bitcoin dominance and That's because it gives you an idea if You want exposure into crypto during say The prehabbing year and even the early Phase of the having year you want to Make sure that you're maximizing your Risk-adjusted returns and so the Exposure into crypto in my opinion Should be limited to to bitcoin during This phase of the market cycle mainly Because we would generally expect the Altcoin market to systematically bleed Back to bitcoin for for quite some time

And and we would also expect this to to Continue well until the dominance is is Quite a bit higher than 50 percent I Ultimately think the dominance is going To 60 but I suppose we should wait till 50 before we uh get to too far ahead of Ourselves right now the dominance is Coming in at 48 and and what we're going To talk a little bit about what we Talked about yesterday a very similar Thing if you remember yesterday we spoke About the Bitcoin bullmark sport band And how big coin has been holding Support on the 20-week SMA back in March And then that's where it sort of moved Back higher we could be testing it soon For Bitcoin although today we've moved Back up to 27.5 But the point is that if you look here At the Bitcoin dominance you'll notice That we've actually held support on it a Couple times already right so Bitcoin USD has only come back down to a one so Far but the Bitcoin dominance health Support here in January of 2023 and at Around 40 41 or so and then the Bitcoin Dominance held support at the 20-week Estimate again in March of 2023 at Around 42 to 43 percent and so the Relevance of this is that right now the Bitcoin dominance is at 48.15 percent And the bullmark sport band for that Dominance is that fits from 45.9 percent To 45.66 percent so you're essentially

Looking at at the bullmark sport Bend For the dominance is is right around That 45 and a half to 46 percent level The reason why this is important is Because there has been uh some element Of consolidation until you get to the Bull Mark squirt band and then the Dominance explodes back up to the upside So we saw that back in January we saw About saw back over here in March February and March as well and then once It tagged that it then had enough Strength for the for the dominance to Then move higher once again And so you know there there could be Some reason to believe that it's just in Another long consolidation pattern Before It ultimately breaks up uh I Think that's one potentially appropriate Way to look at it although I don't Really think we need to necessarily wait For the 20-week estimate to reach these Levels for us to push higher it is a Potential outcome that I you know I Think we should at least consider one Other way to look at the dominance of Course is to look at the 100-day moving Average and the reason I bring this up Is because you'll notice that bitcoinusd Also held support on the 100-day back in March you'll see here that Bitcoin held Support here on the 100-day moving Average back in March and the Bitcoin Dominance held support on the on the 100

Day back in March as well the difference Though is that the dominance also held Support back in January again unlike Bitcoin USC which which you know was Just trying to get above it at that time So you can see that the dominance was Already showing a significant amount of Strength even before the Bitcoin rally Took off The Bitcoin dominance here bottom back In September and which is when we talked About there's historically a Transitionary period And the dominance around the September Time frame and I would go as far to say That we might see a transition to the Dominance fading sum once we get to this September so let's imagine a scenario Where the dominance rallies June July And August and then at some point in September it potentially fades in the Short term although I do think it would So likely continue higher into the Having year you could see some type of Short-term uh pullback sometime around September but if you look at the 100-day Moving average for the Bitcoin dominance You'll see that we held support on it Around 41 percent we held support on it Around 43 as well and now the 100-day Moving average is actually already above 46 percent it's at around 46.31 percent And it's moving higher relatively Quickly and so this could also be an

Area to look out for if there is any Type of move in say a relative moves in The altcoin market with respect to Bitcoin or anything like that if you do See the dominance come back down to this 100-day moving average whether it Happens now or whether we pop up and Then come back down that could also be a Sign that the dominance is ready to move Higher in a more sustained way as well Regardless the main thing that we've Talked about for quite some time and Again I I remind you the reason we focus On this is because we are systematically Watching the deterioration of the Altcoin market on their Bitcoin pairs This has been going on for a long time I I would challenge many of you to look at A lot of your altcoins on their Bitcoin Pairs most of them just continue to put In new lows as recently as the last week And and so that's the the reason why we Focus on this is because we would still Generally expect the altcoin market to Bleed back to bitcoin for quite some Time Um One of the things I wanted to mention And and we've talked about this a lot as Well is that the 49 level Still Remains A pretty strong level that needs to be Broken okay now if we if we roll back The clock back to the last time the Dominance broke out in a in a sustained

Way and and went much higher you'll see That it had to break out above those Prior range highs the prior Range High In 20 uh in 2018 was around 51 or so we Also saw a breakout in 2019 once we got Above 63 percent Um but the point here is that we still Need to break this prior Range High Until we do there's going to be you know There's going to be some Skeptics uh With regards to whether the dominance Will push higher or not I think that if It breaks through I think that those you Know those people would likely throw in The towel and and the dominance could Then quickly move to 51 52 55 56 so on And so forth but this is of course a a Pretty strong level You can see that we were not able to Break it back over here in in May of 2021 we also did not break it in August We're unable to reach it even in June of 2022 and not even close in October or 2021. the main difference that we're Seeing on this approach is that rather Than just having a single Wick higher And getting rejected we're actually Spending a lot of time up here to me This shows sustained strength in the Dominance it shows that relative Weakness in the altcoin market that We've been talking about and again like I'm not here to say that you know any Individual altcoin can't go up at all

Again if Bitcoin goes up it can drag the Altcoin market with it the point is that The altcoin market will likely continue To bleed on their Bitcoin pairs so I'm Looking for a a push Above This 49 level But remember a few years ago when we saw This break above it occurred on a Bitcoin rally that doesn't mean that it Has to occur this time the last time That Bitcoin dominance went up to around These levels it was actually when Bitcoin was dropping in June but in 2018 When we rallied above the range highs it Was on a Bitcoin rally and then once we Broke above that critical threshold when Bitcoin USD went back down in in the Second half of the year that was when The the dominance continued to Rally Right so the whole point is that the Dominant should go up either way right Regardless of what your conviction is on Bitcoin USD we would expect the Dominance to go up either way and Therefore it makes it it makes it Um you know more worthwhile more worth The risk in my opinion uh to not or to Not be to not be in the altcoin market Um over over say something like Bitcoin I also wanted to briefly mention the Dominance excluding stable coins we've Talked about the the reasons to care About this if you look at the dominance Excluding Stables we're currently Sitting at around

52.41 and you can see that we just Continue to slowly push higher I would Still generally expect us to take out This prior Range High over here which Excludes stable coins around 55 5.3 Percent in order to do that of course The Bitcoin dominance excluding Stables Would need to move Higher by another Three percent or so if you look at say a Moving average like a 50-day SMA you can Again once this once again see that the Dominance is building out a relatively Strong base to ultimately move much Higher Going back to bitcoin USD The one thing I I want to remind people Of is that if Bitcoin holds and and Pushes higher Going back to you know even just going Back up a couple thousand dollars you Could easily see the dominance get back To that 49 level break it and then and Then hopefully hold it and if that's the Case then it would show a fundamental Progression in the market cycle for Those who are more interested in the Altcoin market again it's only from Higher levels of Bitcoin dominance that The altcoin market can really see those All Seasons that so many people want the All Seasons that a lot of people sort of Crave don't typically happen when the Dominance is is at 40 percent I mean you Might see some level of it but it's not

The same thing that many people remember From from 2021. if you remember back to 2021 it was when the dominance was Basically dropping Like a Rock from over 70 percent to around 39 percent within Just the span of a few months I'm Putting forth this idea again that even Though it's been a long time since we've Been at those levels it's only a matter Of time before we break back up to the Upside and go to much higher levels on The Bitcoin dominance as the altcoin Market systematically leads back to Bitcoin and Bitcoin sucks in that Liquidity my opinion it's an important Component of the market cycle it will Likely continue it's a healthy part of The market cycle it shows the relative Strength of the Blue Chips we're also Seeing similar things play out in tech Stocks as well You'll notice that a lot of the mega cap Tech stocks like Google and Amazon and Meta and and so on and so forth have Been holding up the overall index for The most part just like we could argue That the blue chips for Bitcoin are for Crypto like Bitcoin uh have been have Been holding up the cryptoverse Obviously ethereum has been doing well Uh too and and that also reminds me to Potentially briefly touch here on the Bitcoin and ethereum dominance okay so If we were to look at the Bitcoin and

Ethereum dominance what you'll see is That we broke out Above This Range High From August of 2021 a long time ago and So I'm speculating again that the Dominance of Bitcoin and ethereum will Continue to move much higher and could Easily go back to 80 percent again it's Our I mean that might sound like a crazy Number to say the Bitcoin dominance plus The ethereum dominance at 80 80 percent It's already at 68 I mean you know 12 Percent if if it climbs another 12 Percent event from 68 to 80 percent or So uh then then you're essentially you Know at those at the higher end of the Range so let's see if it plays out I Know this has been a theory we've been Talking about for a long time I think we are going to be knocking on The door relatively soon of 49 and if That's the case I would hope to see the Bitcoin dominance move quite a bit Higher thank you guys for tuning in Again if you like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up again if you are a Bitcoin Miami we are having the Meetup On on the 20th from 12 30 to 2 30 next To the the Bitcoin Inflatables thank you Guys for tuning in and I will see you Next time bye