Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Cryptoverse today we're going to talk About Bitcoin more specifically we're Going to be discussing Bitcoin dominance If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and check out the sale On intothe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse decom let's go ahead And jump in so the videos that we do on Bitcoin dominance do tend to be longer So a iies for that I have a feeling this Will be long as well um I have tried to Keep some of the more recent videos much Shorter but it is nice sometimes to just Go slow go through the various parts of The market talk about various aspects Talk about potential invalidation levels Uh and and counter points and just Trying to put the the pieces of the Puzzle together so this video we're Going to talk about Bitcoin dominance We're going to be going through a lot of Different things and and hopefully you Find it Useful so the the first thing I I want To say is you know last year was a Really interesting year because last Year was a year where going into the Year there were a lot of people that That scoffed at the idea of of dominance Going back up to even 51% right um I Think a lot of people were really

Convinced that it was going to break Down and the General argument was that Well the asset class is much bigger than Bitcoin now therefore the dominance Can't go back up to where it was Previously now I will admit that I don't Think Bitcoin dominance is going back to 73% I don't um I think that's a common Misconception uh what I what I think is Theoretically possible is 60% now there are no guarantees about That prediction I I do have to admit That and to some degree I'm I'm happy That it's gone as far as it has at Around 55% especially considering when it was Back at 38% even 55% seemed like a Farfetch but in this video we're going To explore can it go higher than that 55% threshold I I do see a lot of people Out there in the cryptoverse that that Put out some compelling reasons why why 55% could be the top um and and so I do Want to at least look at the other side Of the story and see is there any Evidence at all to suggest that it Actually could go higher than that level One thing you might first notice and I Just want to get this part out of the Way is these circles over here because I Want to delete these circles I just want To sort of explain why I have them on There there's this pattern that I was Looking at with regards to to two

Bitcoin dominance so you can look at This pattern here purple green green two Blues right you just keep putting in Lower lows you break that level you go Back down sort of a double bottom break Out now look at the same chart look at The same pattern on the US dollar Currency index chart the the US dollar Index you see the similarities right you Got your purple purple circle up here Your Peak then you drop you put in a low and Then you put in a High same thing then you put in a lower Low then you put in a lower high same Thing with dxy right a lower low and Then a lower high and then dominance did Another lower low and then it took out These prior highs and it put in a higher High right so a lower low and then a Higher high and the dollar actually did The same thing right a lower low and Then a higher high and then after that Higher high it came back Down and put in a higher low which is The same thing that the dollar just did Right it put in a higher low and then After doing that what dominance did was It it went back up to the bull market Support man got rejected put in a double Bottom and then was Off to the Races now Look at where the dollar is right now Same pattern so far up until now and Potentially where it is is right at that

Bull market support bin now I don't know If it's going to continue to repeat this Pattern or not but if the dollar were to Continue to repeat the pattern then it Means at some point in this window Turning back around coming back down to The sort of this pink circle confirming This as the bottom and then moving Higher okay now you might say Ben this Is a great and all but this video is on Bitcoin dominance so what the hell are You doing talking about the US dollar Currency index well I think they are Related in some regard take a look at at What happened with the dollar back over Here in July of 2023 do you see how it Went up for how many weeks in a row Starting here it went up you can see 10 10 so this the the spread here was 10 Meaning there is 11 Green weeks in a row Right just count them 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 Green weeks in a row start Starting in Late July now look at Bitcoin dominance what happened with Bitcoin Dominance starting in August so about a Month Later you can see it had nine or 10 Green weeks in a row So the dubious argument right is that if The dollar if the US dollar currency Index goes up Aggressively then so too could the Dominance Bitcoin right the dollar going

Up you know sort of implies a a riskof Type of environment but not always there Are periods where the dollar has gone up And Bitcoin went up with it if you don't Believe me uh just go look at at at 2016 2016 was a was an example where the Dollar went up here and if you were to Overlay uh Bitcoin USD onto the Chart You can see that Bitcoin was also going Up even when the dollar was going up Right So in general though we know that if the Dollar is going up aggressively then Markets prefer blue chips over riskier Stuff right and so the dominance could Go up so we get into a situation where If the dollar is in some type of Bottoming Process and and again remember this Could continue to go on for some time It could it could get rejected here it Might not I mean maybe it deviates but If it does get rejected comes back down And puts in a double bottom and then Starts to go back up that could be sort Of a signal that dominance is about to Take off once again again regardless of The direction of Bitcoin USD I've said That for probably a year and a half now Right the dominance will go up Regardless of the direction of Bitcoin USD now again mostly Bitcoin has gone up Right but again that's part of the

Thesis right it doesn't matter what way Bitcoin goes the dominance should go up Either way Now that's sort of one side of it to Think about how the dollar relates to it And by the way If you know if you don't if you don't Like the way this looks I mean one way To look at this is some type of massive Accumulation zone right um but another Way to visualize this is maybe take the Inverse of of the dollar right if you Take the inverse so the dollar um you Can see that I I I I must have talked About this in a prior video but sort of That a distribution right sort of these Distribution phases up here and again it Could come all the way back down here Now I do you know if you look at the Prior if you look at the last uh the Last chart we did could bounce first Right maybe it bounces and and then goes Down now what would happen if the dollar Bounced right what would happen well or Sorry what what would happen if the Dollar fell back in I should say like if The dollar uh did something like this Where instead where it followed What Bitcoin dominance did where it gets Rejected goes back down and then goes up Right what if it did something like That like this right now if that were to Happen then that could lead to another Risk on time in crypto right if the

Dollar is going down in the same way if You think about it if the dollar is Going up it would make makes sense that You think about you sort of a riskof Time you think about this move over here By the dollar and how that was very much A riskof Time if the dollar were to come back Down confirm this double bottom and then Break Out that could be a risk of time but in The meantime what happens during the Phase where it's coming back down well One of the things that we've mentioned With with Bitcoin is that you know Actually let's look at it on a lower Time frame first so on a lower time Frame you can see what's happened so far Is that Bitcoin has fallen back in to The bottom part of the range here right So it's been at this range since December 4th and it it's checked in with It now about three or four times and so If this holds right if this holds and Bitcoin moves back up what have we Learned over the last year and a half Right that we we we said going in if Bitcoin moves up aggressively guess what The dominance of Bitcoin goes up so if If Bitcoin holds here and starts to go Back up then the dominance should go up With it if on the other hand we get we Confirm a weekly close below the 8we Moving average which is currently at you

Know just over 42k and if we do fall back into the bull Market support band it will be very Important to see what the reaction is There right what is the reaction if we Even go back down there again I I can't Promise anything I don't know if we're Going to make it back down there or not In the short term I can look back at History and say that every January or February of all prior having years Bitcoin checked in with the bullmark Sport band um that doesn't mean that it Has to this time uh this is one of those Things where you know we can point out The patterns all we want Bitcoin is Going to do whatever Bitcoin wants to do Um here's an example where it it it Tested the bullmark sport band in in q1 Of the having year It ultimately fell Below it though uh here's another Example right here where it tested the Bullmark sport band in q1 of the having Year and then then again q1 of the Having year Bitcoin testing that bull Market support ban and so I look at this And say well if Bitcoin does not hold The 8we SMA and falls back into this Level I would still argue that the Dominance could still go up following That event right because I mean if Bitcoin bounces off of it uh then I Imagine dominance would go higher or if In the process of falling maybe altcoins

Just go down more right there's there is Always a chance that that happens as Well now there's one thing that you know Continues to to be a dilemma in my mind With regards to you know to the idea That that some people have put forth That dominance has you know you know Won't go any higher and again I'm not Saying they don't have valid arguments I I think a lot of them actually do have Valid arguments and I'm not I'm not Trying to discredit what they're saying Um I'm just trying to provide the other Side of the argument right I mean it's a Market you know everyone gets things Wrong all the time um and so for every Person that thinks you know something's Going to play out this way there's Probably someone else out there that Might think the opposite but what I Would say what I would say about about Dominance and why I'm skeptical of this Being um the the end of it and I again I Will provide some counterpoints Is historically The Ether Bitcoin valuation breaking Down after it breaks down that's Normally where dominance aggressively Makes a turn after ether Bitcoin breaks Down if you don't know what I mean let's Go take a look at the ether Bitcoin Valuation now look at this pattern here You see this pattern it's a pretty clear Pattern and

Um you get a top you set your low and Then you put a lower high and then you You keep testing testing that low until You ultimately break through it right so You you keep testing it you eventually Break through it and then once it breaks Through then ether Bitcoin has found its Bottom you know within a couple of Months or so right a couple months later If you were to take a a time a date Range here from where it broke down to Where ether Bitcoin finally found its Low was about two months and if you go Over here and look at it it was about Two months after it broke down about Seven or eight weeks or so now when I Look at this chart I say all right you get a peak and then A second Peak and then you keep testing The low and yes occasionally we bounced Off of that low but history shows that Eventually it breaks Down you can see that it broke down in Late 2016 you can also see that it broke Down in mid 2019 and by the Way it took a long time to break down I Mean it took 82 83 weeks it's been about That long now about 83 weeks weeks or so So we've already exceeded the the amount Of time it took compared to last cycle But the point that I would like to make Is that in all of these prior cases The Ether Bitcoin pair it put up a fight for

A really long time you know it didn't go Down without a fight right like the the The the the ether Bitcoin Bulls they Fought and they fought and they fought And then Eventually they gave up Eventually right Eventually the the the the Bulls On The Ether Bitcoin pair gave Up and ether Bitcoin broke down and I've Been very clear about my views on ether Bitcoin my view is that eventually it Breaks to the 003 to 004 range I don't Know exactly that's just my guess I Could be wrong right I I could be wrong And you know anytime I talk about The Ether bit coin pair on on on Twitter or X I get ridiculed right but it's the Same people that were ridiculing me when I was talking about how it was in a Distribution phase back at the merge you Know and so every time it gets any type Of a rally off the lows it's sort of Like a gotcha moment but is it really You know is it is it really a gotcha Moment um or is it just the same pattern That has been playing out in the past Where it goes to these lows it bounces But then it still hasn't broken down and So that's one of the reasons why I Struggle to to look at dominance Definitively and say you know is that The high because I don't I mean I look At ether Bitcoin and I think well what

If it still needs to break down and and If ether Bitcoin were to break down and You know to go from the current levels Down here that would be another 31 32% Drop and if ether Bitcoin drops another 30% well then that's going to send the Dominance of Bitcoin through the roof Right because it would likely take a lot Of altcoins with It so I struggle with that in terms of In terms of identifying you know in Terms of being as confident as others on Identifying the high on dominance simply Because I I look at the chart and I say Well ether hasn't broken down yet Against Bitcoin so is it possible that It this time is different and we have Some type of soft Landing where it Doesn't break down I guess that's Possible but I I I would also be you Know I'd be remiss to Simply say that it It can't break Down when it's still following the Pattern from prior Cycles and if you think about when ether Broke down last cycle against Bitcoin it Broke down in July now July is Interesting because July is when we got Our first rate cut in fact July of 2019 If you draw a line down the page again In July of 2019 that is when ether Bitcoin broke down I mean it broke down Just a couple of weeks before but it was In that month that ether Bitcoin broke

Down and we can't know when rate cuts Are going to come this cycle we also Don't know if it's going to play out the Same way that I did last cycle but until We've seen what Happens how can we know What if it does play out the same way What if ether Bitcoin doesn't break down Until the First Rate cut arrives the Problem with that is we don't know when The First Rate cut is going to arrive You know it could be March it could be May in fact right now the market thinks It's not even going to be until May May Of 2024 the very beginning of May right May 1 so I think you know there's this idea Of well if we get Cuts in March then Maybe it breaks down in March if we get Cuts in May then maybe it breaks down in May if you look at the prior pattern Over here with ether Bitcoin what you'll Notice at least in the last cycle is That there was a low and then a lower Low kind of the same thing right here Right a low and then a lower low and Then it got a bounce and then it did not Retest it again for about 22 weeks 22 Weeks if you to go out 22 weeks from This bounce right here it would put you In fact in June right in June so that's you know summertime Ethereum in terms of seasonality like if You think about like when is ether the

Weakest it tends to be around May June July right the summer months are often Not that kind to ethereum now during the Merge that was sort of a different story Uh but it still led into you know into You know June or July before then Bouncing back up on its Bitcoin pair so If you think about like when has ether Bitcoin found this weakness when has it Historically found some weakness often Times it is around May or June you could Also look at this bounce right here and See how long it took to get back down to The lows and it only took about eight Weeks right and if you took out eight Weeks from this level it would put it Out in March so so I think you could Make the case That we could be seeing ether retest the Bitcoin low of 0.049 you know I don't know two between Two to four months from now right maybe Sooner but you know could be March April May um but sometime in the first half of The year I I think would be kind of an Expectation that that ether Bitcoin Could come back down and retest this low And if you think about it if we get a Rate cut in March then perhaps it's it's Like this type of a move right here and You can even see that that Weekly candle Right here if you look at the percentage Right there that Weekly candle was 17.85% the weekly candle we got last

Week was about 177% so again it's hard To know if it's going to just Immediately fall back down or be like You know what happened over here where It took a lot longer could probably Could play out completely different too But I I just want to be like honest like I mean I'm not not here to you know to To say things that I don't think um a Lot of people out there are you know Give different opinions on it but this Is what I'm looking at right what if Ether Bitcoin does still eventually Break down right what if it still does Eventually break down and what if it Doesn't occur until May or June potentially at the Latest which again would correspond To rate Cuts and if it were to break Down where do you think Bitcoin Dominance Goes yes I get it every time I put out This video I get a you know a dozen People saying well what about this Person they're saying it's already They're saying it's going to crash this Person is saying Bitcoin dominance is Going to crash they were saying the same Thing a year ago too and two years ago And of course they're going to keep Saying the same thing yeah they'll be They'll be right if eventually and maybe They're right now but it's important to

Recognize that Dominance can go Up longer than a lot of people think it Can and it can also go higher than People think it can if you're honest With yourself there's a lot of people That scoffed at the idea that it would Ever even go above 49% remember remember These arguments that that we we had last Year where so many people said that you Know we were going to have alt season Right here and and the Bitcoin dominance Was going to get rejected and go back Down well that didn't happen you know it Broke out and it's true we have fallen Below the bull market support bin so why Don't we pivot to that now and see What's going on there throughout all of 2023 Bitcoin dominance did not have a Single weekly close below the bull Market support band right you can see That it stayed above it every single Time it tested it there was one WI below It but every single time it would test It it would bounce right here's another Wick we finally got a weekly close below The bull market support ban in January Of 2024 so this month so then does that Mean the trend is over right and I think It's a fair question right so I don't Think it's it's it's not like it's Obvious that it has to go up anymore Right it's not um this prior trend of

Holding the 20we SMA Andor 21 we EMA it Has been broken right it has Been so we could go back to last cycle And see you know did that happen at all And there are some examples I mean There's there's this example right here Where you can see that Bitcoin Dominus Was above the 20we es for a long time it Finally broke down and when it broke Down it actually broke Down in De like late 2018 early 2019 Right it broke below so right around the Turn of the year it broke down and then It stayed below that until April April what's fascinating about that What's fascinating about April is that That's when the Bitcoin having is and It's also potentially around the time of Rate Cuts plus or minus a month or so Right like maybe we get a rate cut in March maybe we get one in May but what Happens if dominance starts to go back Up again Sometime around the having and I don't Mean like you know back up to 52% right If it goes back to 52% no one's going to Care you know I mean it could easily Bounce around these levels for a long Time and it and it hasn't if it hasn't Taken out these this High over here Didn't really matter right so until it Actually breaks out doesn't really Matter if it gets any types of bounces

But the point that I'm trying to make is That it got below the bull Mark Spen Right here faded I mean it went back up Right but then it faded still until April till the very beginning of April And then it broke up the reason I I Think that is an interesting observation Is because this breaking up occurs Potentially if it were to happen in April again about one month before the First Rate cut if the First Rate cut Occurs in May maybe it occurs in March And then this timeline has Accelerated but remember what we said About ether Bitcoin how it could break Down in in the in sometime in the first Half of the year you know Pro I mean Maybe February but likely I mean when When you get a move this aggressive um You know it would it would likely take You know many weeks for it to fade back Down so you know earliest could be March Um all the way out through the first Half of the Year it's just I mean and again like you Might say well you want something more Specific guys the hard part about all This is that the market really doesn't Know when the First Rate cut is coming Because the market doesn't know how much Longer the economy can hold on you know It's always possible that the First Rate Cut doesn't occur until even later in The year right but when you look at

Dominance Here it made another move starting in April now look at this let's overlay Interest rates on Here I'm going to change the Color do you see where dominance finally Topped We at the top after rate Cuts began Right it was after rate Cuts began and This move here started right this move Started before rate Cuts began right it Started in in April started before the First Rate cut arrived and so what if Something similar plays out you know Maybe it doesn't even take until April For it to start to make its move maybe It starts to make a move in in March or Even February So that I think is is something to you Know to to keep in Mind now Remember there's there's all sorts of Things we can look at with Bitcoin USD Right like there's the uh there's the Bullmark tban there's the 8we ese we Haven't tested those yet and I I frankly I mean I I think there's a case be made That we could test them in in the first Couple of months of this year like we Normally do but if we don't test them And Bitcoin just breaks out again where Do you think think dominance is going to Go remember historically when ether Bitcoin broke down in Prior in Prior

Moves right when it when it broke down Over here it was on a Bitcoin rally Right it was on a Bitcoin rally when Ether Bitcoin broke down over here in Late 2016 it was on a Bitcoin Rally and then Bitcoin topped out last Cycle one month before rate Cuts began Right so last cycle when Bitcoin had This impressive move um you know all the Way up To to 14K or so you can see that that Sort of preceded the First Rate Cut now I'll be honest I mean this Wick Looks kind of scary and and it could be Similar to that Wick but even if even if This is the high for a while it doesn't Mean you can't come back up and and test It I mean you can see even in in last Cycle we did go back up and test it and If it and if we take out that high Right if we take out that high then I Have to imagine that dominance would go Up I have to imagine that that dominance Would go up in that type of Scenario so let's suppose first of all Let's suppose Bitcoin breaks down to Either the you know to the bullmark Sportan or the 100 we SMA if it were to Do that and then bounce back up Aggressively then that could be where Ether Bitcoin finally breaks Down if it doesn't go back down to those Levels and then just goes goes back up Then it could break down a lot sooner

And then maybe you accelerate the Timeline instead of being like May or June where it breaks down perhaps it Breaks down earlier like March or Something Um so it's an interesting sort of an Interesting idea that I know a lot of People are sort of celebrating this Bounce by Ether but we said that it Could bounce right I mean like we said That look guys it could bounce and if it Does it still has a lot to prove because If you think about it it still hasn't Managed to to take out a lot of a lot of These major Milestones like look at this Look at look at it like This this is the 50e estimate right I Mean last cycle it it bounced up near it And then still faded back to the Downside right it still faded back Down so I find it Challenging to with confidence say that The highs are in for dominance when I Still think there is a reasonable chance That the ether Bitcoin Valuation could break Down that's my view right I I I think There's a a case to be made that ether Bitcoin could break down now one thing That I Will remind people Of somewhat regret ably to be completely Honest somewhat regrettably that I'll Even say this because it it it it only

It only ever leads to to people mocking Me but I I will say it just because it Is in my opinion it's important um no Matter what the haters want to say but If we look at at what happened to Ether USD if you look at what happened to Ether USD after ether Bitcoin broke down Right so let's Um let me change This So look at these prior Moves do you see here where ether Bitcoin finally broke down in October of 2016 what happened after it broke down Ether USD collapsed what happened when Ether Bitcoin broke down here in 2019 ether USD Collapsed and what's interesting is from This high here to the low ether dropped About 70% after you know around the time that Ether Bitcoin broke Down is about a 70% drop and then if you Look at the last cycle a you know you Can see here ether Bitcoin broke down How far did ether USD Fall was about a 70% drop I mean even if You exclude the pandemic and you just Take it right there it's about a 70% Drop now I don't know where the high is For ethereum this year I have no idea But what's interesting is this drop Right here Let's ignore this this this Uh sort of when it started and just take

It from say like the wick right here Maybe not even the wick like take it From just that Weekly open that's about A 70% drop now do you want all three of These 70% drops by Ether USD have in Common It's that they all Terminated at the lower part of the Logarithmic regression Ban right one two 3 now I don't know Where ether USD tops it's possible that Already has if Bitcoin goes up again and Puts in a new high or even if it even if Bitcoin were to go back up to you know The prior high it's possible that ether Could go you know go put a new high but What would it take to go back down to The regression band down Here well this was a 70% drop this was a 70% drop this was a 70% drop do you Think before any of those 70% drops People were screaming hey it's about to Drop 70% probably Not but we don't really have a lot of Data for this first one because the Ether Bitcoin pair just sort of was that Was where it was created but I mean kind Of Imagine right that it broke imagine That ether Bitcoin just broke down right Here ether USD dropped 70% ether Bitcoin Dropped here from this Wick at least Ether USD dropped 70% ether Bitcoin Broke down here ether USD dropped

70% so then I guess the question is is Well will it do the same thing Again I don't know but I will say and You know this is where I get in trouble Because like if if Bitcoin were to rally For the next you know let's say Bitcoin Just kind of does nothing for the next Like four weeks um just kind of stays in The range that it's been in for a While and let's suppose that sometime Around the having we get another another Move by Bitcoin it would likely drag eth with it Okay but imagine that you know where I Don't I don't know how high you'd have To go for a 70% drop to be at the bottom Of the regression band right So and and it depends on when as as well Right I mean if let's just say in May Let's say in May then the bottom of the regression Band will be you know probably around 700 800 um this would put ether USD that 70% Top would be around 2700 2,800 you know Maybe plus or minus a couple hundred Dollar right so I I just think it's Interesting because Um that could correspond to Ether Bitcoin breaking down right it could Correspond ether Bitcoin breaking down And what's more interesting if you look At ether USD or if you look at it here it's

Actually still forming that same pattern Right where it's it's putting in these Highs and then putting in these higher Lows or higher highs and higher lows it Then breaks out but then eventually it Breaks back Down you can see a very similar pattern Over here right like it's putting in These slightly higher highs uh higher Lows it's starting to break out here you Can already argue that it has broken Out look how long it took over here Before it broke down right it took about 3 months or so right so three months From now puts it in April right why is April important that's right around the Time that rate Cuts might arrive it Could occur in March it could occur in May but let's suppose that rate Cuts Arrive and then let's suppose that Whatever ethereum's valuation is at you Know on its US dollar pair what if it Starts to drop then as Bitcoin finally Breaks it off Support so that's the important thing is That remember Bitcoin rallies break all Bitcoin pairs down right so if Bitcoin Were to get another rally at some point In the next two to three months then There's a good chance they could bring Ether Bitcoin back down to these PRI LS Now I get that everyone's talking about The Ether ETF and I'm not trying to Discount that I don't know exactly where

That's going to end up but um if you Think about it even if the ether ETF Does get approved sometime in the next Few months look at what happened with Bitcoin's ETF once it got approved I Mean it dropped Bitcoin immediately Dropped Um almost 20% right so yeah I mean that That's the thing is that yes people are Going to continue to chase The Narrative Of of The Ether ETF and so for you know For several more months that could be The narrative that is sort of entrenched In our minds of the of The Ether ETF but My my point is that once that narrative Has come and gone right once it has come And gone does ether Bitcoin finally just Break Down you know once there's no longer Another narrative to cling to right you Already got the merge you got all these ETFs right the Bitcoin havs behind us Then does ether Bitcoin finally break Down and remember historically Ally when It breaks down it's on a Bitcoin rally Right um so it could be a rally it could Be a rally that Bitcoin gets after it Bounces off the 100 we SMA it could be a Rally that gets off off the bullmark SP Band or it could be a rally to a new Higher high right it could be a rally to A new higher high where it takes out the Prior high and we've talked about There's some evidence to suggest this

Could be a a significant local top for a Little while um especially given all the Hype that came with it and and they're Being sort of these these spot ETFs and so I think that's a relevant Thing to think about like if that is the Top then a future rally by Bitcoin could Put in a lower high but it could still Break ether Bitcoin down and if Bitcoin Puts in a higher high then I imagine Ether Bitcoin could still break Down so when I look at all that I think Well kind of seems like dominance could Still go up now if you were to look at Dominance really closely Here Let's look at it like This you can see that this level right Here right this level right here is Actually the very similar level that This Wick came back down to in 2018 right so you know my interpretation Is that Bitcoin is the dominance is is Getting is hardening hardening up right Yes there's been a lot of selling Pressure pressure through you know Through um gbtc we know that but despite All that selling pressure dominance is Still staying above the prior breakout Zone right of 49% so if you were to ask Me like what is an invalidation right Like where would I just say all right Throw the towel on it look if it breaks Back down below 49 like if it breaks

Back down below here right this area That it took forever to break out above If we get back back down here then yes Yes you know it would be time to to you Know to probably throw in the towel Okay but as long as we're up here I Don't I I I can't really come up with a Compelling reason why you know we have To I have to throw in the towel now on It because again you know after it broke Out of this range after it broke out of This range it still took it from this Breakout here until the next uptrend Until the next move really started it Took 34 weeks right so from here to Where we currently are we're currently At 32 weeks so what if we're just in Some type of Consolidation right that is not that Dissimilar from what we saw over here Where if you look you can see that Bitcoin dominance was also in a Downtrend channel right it was putting In lower highs and lower lows which is Kind of similar to to what's happening Again right now in the short term where It's in this downtrend channel um but it Could still eventually break back up to The upside just like it did right here Right and so you know what if it just Continues to do that where it just Bounces around and then by you know March or April or something or maybe Even sooner it just blasts off through

Here and dominance breaks up again right At the same time that ether Bitcoin It finally breaks Down right remember ether Bitcoin Finally broke Down after you know right around the Time that rate Cuts arrived and again We're we're probably looking at a rate Cut in either March or May either March or May so that's why I Think you know it's worthwhile to be a Little bit flexible on this and say all Right well maybe it comes back down in March maybe it takes all the way out Until late May or something to to fade Back down but my guess is that it does Eventually fade back down and then once All the ETF narrative is behind us then I I suppose that it finally breaks Down if you were to look At say like total three minus USD out of A Bitcoin I get that you know a lot of People are hopeful that it doesn't break Down but you know from setting this Wick Here until breaking down it took about You know 4 one weeks SL 42 weeks or so Here you know we're currently only on Week 30 you know if you were to take it Out to 42 weeks guess where that puts You it puts you in April which is the Having right and again that's April is Is is smack dab between the two most Likely candidate months for a rate cut

Could be March could be May so I just want people to be aware That Yes a lot of altcoins have held their Own against Bitcoin since July as you Can see that total three minus usct Bitcoin has not broken durably below That low but last cycle we can see that It also took about 42 weeks before it Broke down and by the way it did not Break down until about a month before The First Rate cut Arrived so perhaps it will do something Similar where it breaks down you can see Right here it broke down right as that First r cut arrived if the First Rate Cut occurs in March then maybe it breaks Down in March if the First Rate cut Arrives in May then maybe it breaks down In May I think I look I think one of the Issues is that it it's such an Exhausting process right to look at this Stuff because I think like a lot of People can like look at it and and say Yeah like it makes sense but it's kind Of a long time to just simply wait right And so I that's what I've said before Guys Have a plan right like do what you want To do I mean you know if there's stuff You want in your Portfolio you can always just DCA into That stuff and just say all right I

Acknowledge that perhaps Bitcoin will Outperform it and I acknowledge that Maybe it'll play out like this but if There's something you really want you Can say all right I know this is Probably going to happen or if it Repeats last cycle then it could happen But I'm just going to DCA It Anyways Okay you can always come up with that And just tune me Out I think that's a valid strategy to be Completely honest right I'm not asking You to sit here every single week and Watch to see if alts are going to break Down against Bitcoin or Not but you know I I feel like I have a Responsibility to continue to follow up On this since it's been a thesis that We've talked about for a long time will They will they eventually break down Against Bitcoin or not and you know There's a lot of people that are saying Well the narrative is Shifting now it's Shifting away from Bitcoin and towards Altcoins and towards ethereum because of The ether ETF and while that may be true I'm not trying to say that there's no Narrative shift at all there clearly has Been because ether Bitcoin is now 06 and It was at 05 there's also the the having for Bitcoin in April so you know what if the Narrative just shifts back to that like

If you think about like again if you Look at at like The Ether Bitcoin Pair right if you look at at The Ether Bitcoin Pair and you think about last cycle you Know it's not like there were no Narrative shifts in here right when it Rallied when The Ether Bitcoin pair Rallied back up from the low s almost 70% and then again it rallied off that Low 40% yes there were narrative shifts But it still eventually broke down and So what if you know it does the same Thing I mean I'm not saying it can't go Any higher but what if eventually you Know we get closer to the habing people Start to think well yes The Ether ETF May be coming but also there's the Bitcoin having that's coming and so a Lot of that Capital that left Bitcoin to Go to Ether might just come right back Right it might just go right back to Bitcoin and perhaps such a move would Correspond to the Dollar getting Rejected off the bull market sport band Only to then come back down and set in a Double bottom and then go up right so Imagine if it were to play out like Bitcoin dominance did where it it came Down right if we were we remember we Talking about this earlier where Bitcoin Dominance it it it had this same type of Long-term accumulation pattern right a

Low a lower low a lower low you finally Take out some of these prior highs and Then you set a double bottom after Getting rejected off the bullmark sport Pin what if during this period right Here if it if like Bitcoin dominance got Rejected for a couple of months what if The dollar does the same thing do during That period if we go back to risk on and Bitcoin goes back up and then ether Bitcoin finally breaks down then Bitcoin Would likely be able to roll over and Then there's nowhere for ether to hide Because it finally broke down on its Bitcoin Pair what are some counterpoints to this Stuff because this is all great you know But there's got to be valid arguments The other way and I I think there are One of the one of the things that we've Mentioned is is the dominance um uh if You were to look at at year-to dat Roi Of dominance I think that's a good way To look at it dominance without stable Coins more Specifically here's 2024 and then here's 2020 and here's 2016 so you can see that there's a case To be made that maybe dominance doesn't Do what I just said and maybe it just Kind of you know oscillates around for The entire year where it goes a little It goes lower but then maybe just goes Right back up you know by the end of the

Year so you could have a scenario like That where it just sort of moves around Like this and doesn't get that breakout That you know that I just mentioned um There are some counterpoints to that Because as we know the year-to DAT stuff Does not always play out take a look at What happened in 2023 and look at 2019 And look at 2015 they're all pretty Similar years right 2015 2019 and 2023 In fact 2023 played out really similar To to 2015 in terms of where it actually Ended the Year But if you look at 2022 compared to 2018 2018 Bitcoin dominance went up a lot More than it did in 2022 so the argument That I'm trying to make is what if this Gap here right that the fact that Dominant State and guys this excludes Stable coins a lot of times people say Well the market is different now we have Stable coins this is excluding the Stable coin market right it's excluding The stable coin market and we've been Showing this chart forever excluding the Stable coin Market what if we have to still make That move because ether Bitcoin still Needs to break Down because last cycle it broke down in 2019 in the prehab Year but also last cycle rate Cuts Occurred in the prehab year what if this

Cycle rate Cuts occur in the having year And that's where ether Bitcoin finally Breaks down so perhaps we're sort of in Out you know the 2024 Trend with the 2022 Trend or something where normally The dominance would have gone up more in The bare Market year but it didn't and So then for therefore it goes up more in In the having Year just one way to think about it Right I'm not saying it has to play out Like that but it is something to think About there are some other valid Counterpoints I think so like if you Were to look at like Bitcoin dominance Uh plus let's say usdt dominance plus um Usdc Dominance look at this Chart let's imagine unfortunately we Just don't have a lot of data before Here because um you know just trading View doesn't have the history for that For the usdc stable coin uh beyond that Um you only can you only can look to see Like you know when since when the since When the newest asset has been around or Since when trading view has data for it But if you look at it like This Right if you look at it like this where Are we now right here what's interesting About this level right Here well let's draw a line across the Page and see the last time we were at

This level after breaking above it in The last cycle okay it was right here Now draw a line from this Wick here over Here now look at This this Wick here sort of matches up Up with this one and then this these Lows here on on bitcoin dominance plus Usdt dominance plus usdc dominance they Came off it fell back in to about 58% which is exactly where it is now Right exactly where it is now and then Look what happened after it spent about A month at these levels starting in June Of 2019 it absolutely blasted off to the High part of the Range it blasts it Off why did it go up so much what Happened in June of 2019 well that was Again one month before rate Cuts Arrived one month before rate Cuts Right so it came down and then blast it Off and when it finally made that move It broke all Bitcoin pairs Down but it kept going up why did it Keep going up is Because the dominance of stable coins Were was going up because people were Selling their crypto right they were Selling their Crypto look at um usdt dominance on this Chart you can see that USD dominance was Going up during that time right it was Going up and that also you know helped

This whole chart go back to the upside Now you might say well let me let me Remove let me let me draw pull it up on A different thing okay so now let's look At just Bitcoin dominance plus usct Dominance because you might you might Look at the um at the prior chart and Say well you know what happens if it you Know it's not an oscillator the thing is Is like you know last cycle if you just Look at dominance of Bitcoin plus usct Dominance you could make the case you Know somewhat I suppose Um it only went a little bit lower over Here than it did over Here what if it's you know what if we're Just simply in this phase right what if We're just in this phase right Here where eventually it still breaks to The upside right where it still breaks To the Upside it's possible another way to look At this by the way is to look at usdt Dominance by itself this is kind of a Scary chart um so there's two ways to Look at it there's an optimistic way and A very pessimistic way we'll start with The optimistic way this is the Optimistic way to look at it why is this The optimistic way well if you look at Usdt dominance every time it hits this Trend line it is a cur it's corresponded To major pullbacks in crypto if you Don't believe me let's take a

Um is there A well let's just go look November of 2021 I don't have to tell you what was Going on you know what was going on in Crypto in November of 2021 right November of 2021 right Here That was just before a larger pullback Began here this was March April May of 2021 just before a major pullback Occurred Here February 2020 just before the March 20 20 crash right here July of 2019 just Before Bitcoin topped out or no just After Bitcoin topped out right now let's Overlay Bitcoin USD onto the chart you Can see what I'm talking about Right when it hits this trend line it's Not a good Thing so that would suggest that maybe Just maybe there's still some more room In the tank for this to go for USD Dominance to go down before it then goes Back up that's the optimistic way to Look at it right and again I'm not Saying it could play out like that we've Made the case that if the dollar gets a Pullback and we know that ether has not Yet broken down against Bitcoin perhaps There's reason to believe that Bitcoin Could get another push into the having And tether dominance goes down again the Reason

Why it's a little iffy and not set in Stone is because while this looks really Really clear you could also put this on A log chart I'm not really sure how much It makes sense because it is a Percentage but if you were to put on a Log chart it tells a slightly different Story and that story is that we're Already there right if you look at it on Like a a log chart and you connect the Dots you could say that we're already at This level right we're already at the um The levels that you know when previously This trend line hit was not a good Thing okay so probably makes more sense To look at it on the regular axis to be Completely honest but just for the sake Of completeness I wanted to show it here The other thing that I think is worth Mentioning is if you look at the Fib Retracement from this level Here and you compare it to last Cycle what you'll notice is that Bitcoin Had it did not have its re it did not Have the larger pullback until after Bitcoin dominance had retraced all the Way back up to the 0. five FIB the 0.5 right I need to switch this to a Regular scale Um so here you can see that Bitcoin USD Was still chopping around up here and it Did not finally begin the the the trend Back down until after dominance broke

Through the 0.5 FIB the 0.5 FIB this Cycle is about 56% We haven't hit 56% yet but what if we do What if you know at some point between Now and the having the dollar pulls back Bitcoin gets another move dominance goes To 56% I don't know if it'll be a lower High for Bitcoin USD or if it will be a Higher high what I do think needs to Happen during whatever move comes I Think ether Bitcoin is going to break Down okay so whether Bitcoin puts in a Lower High um or a higher high I think Ether Bitcoin will probably break down You might say well you know last time What made ether Bitcoin breakdown was it A higher high or was a lower high well It depends on which time you look There's two examples and in both cases We basically have uh a different Something different that happened Right if you look In 2019 ether Bitcoin you might be Surprised to know this but ether Bitcoin Over here broke down the week of July 8th July 8th was this week That was right Here that was a lower high right it was A lower high because Bitcoin put in its High the week of June 24th but then it Put in a lower high the week of July 8th But on the week of July 8th ether Bitcoin broke down even though

Bitcoin was not putting in a new high it Still broke Down but if you go back to the cycle Before That if you go back over here And you look at ether Bitcoin Um right here you can see that it broke Down in late October 2016 early November Well late October early November Bitcoin Was actually still at a at a lower high In fact but it ended up becoming a Higher high right but in both cases Ether Bitcoin broke down at lower highs One case Bitcoin went on to go to a Higher high the other case Bitcoin just Put in a lower high and went back Down As rate Cuts were were ushered In so that's another thing to think About you know Um and again as I've said before right Like it's not that you can't make money On eth right I mean I know everyone Everyone and their mom is now chasing The E ETF narrative okay but my point is That ether is staying elevated because Of Bitcoin and not the other way around Right it's not ethereum is not the one Holding up the market it has been Bitcoin that has been holding up the Market for a long time now sure you can Point to the last couple of weeks and Say well you know this has been one hell Of a move by Ether so what you know it

Still is down it still has been an a Macro downtrend against Bitcoin since The merge which is when I said this was A secondary distribution phase just like Bitcoin USD and a lot of people did not Want to listen to that when I said that Was a secondary distribution phase and Since that time ether Bitcoin has f and Even to the current levels 30% Right I can't tell you how many videos I've made over the last couple years Talking about every single one of these Lower highs I mean every single one and Every single time you know it bounces Everyone loves to come out and say you Know well look at That but it still eventually just faded Back down you may say well eventually It's going to break back up and it won't Fade back down I agree with you I really Do I I do I'm not a Bitcoin Maxi even Though I do sometimes seem like I'm one On here but I just think that it's going To break Down Before we can say that right I think we Need to go down to this level Here so perhaps that's what happens Right where just sort of slowly Fades Back down um maybe it doesn't take that Long but where it just sort of slowly Fades back down into here and then some Down somewhere over here at bottoms and

Then it and then we just go on another Type of Move I could see that happening it's a Way to way to think that it could could Eventually Go we could also understand some of Bitcoin dominance through alt coins Again right like you could look at at Like the Ada Bitcoin pair and see that It's kind of doing something very Similar to the last cycle it did right Where it found a Low It found this low Here right and then after finding that Low it then bounced back Up to this High and now it's starting to fade back Down look at this High when did this High occur April of 2019 May June July Three months before the First Rate cut This occurred in December January February March maybe we'll get a rate Cut in March so the qu or maybe it'll Take until May I don't know but I I Think the thing to look for is Ada Bitcoin doing the same thing it did last Cycle where everyone Just joins in thinking the hype's going To last forever and then it still just Ends up being a lower high and a to Bitcoin Fades back down and still Eventually breaks down right that's what Happened last cycle right again it put

In these highs after after going down to 800 SATs it went all the way back up to You know to almost 2,000 STS very Similar move over here and then faded Back down and eventually broke One thing that could be a warning sign For ether Bitcoin could be if alt Breakdown because if you look at alt USD PA or all Bitcoin pairs last cycle they Actually broke down um I think maybe Like slightly before ether Bitcoin broke Down so if you were to zoom in they Broke down the week of June 24th right Ether Bitcoin didn't break down until 2 Weeks later so it could be that if you See all Bitcoin pairs breaking down that Could be a warning sign for ether that It's going to break down too okay um and Look at this look at this move here Right it's a very similar Move you go to this low right you put in A low you retest it same thing over here And then you bounce up to this High same Thing right Here and then perhaps it just slowly Fades back down and it and it Potentially breaks right around the time Of rate Cuts right which means you know it could Still stay elevated for a couple a few More months but still think eventually It'll likely break down remember over Here when it broke down it was on a Bitcoin rally right it was on a Bitcoin

Rally so those are my thoughts on uh on Bitcoin dominance and we've we've thrown In some counter points I've said look if It if it goes below if it goes below the Breakout Zone here then I would concede You know that it won't that it likely Isn't going to 60% but as long as we Stay above the breakout Zone just like We did just like we stayed above it over Here as long as we stay above that and You can even see it's almost an Identical pattern look at This look you break out right Here right there and then after breaking Out you retest it let me see if I can Show you so look you break out right Here and then you retest It you break out right here and then you Retest it but then you eventually put in This High which is like this high right Here and then you put in a lower high Which maybe is this lower high right Here but ideally it puts in a macro Higher low where somewhere over Here you know it it finds a higher low And rather than rather than going back Down to this level it just blasts off so Look guys I don't know what's going to Happen the next few weeks um I imagine That if dominance were to go back below 50% or below 51% let's say it goes back Down to 50.5 I know a lot of people are Going to be wondering what's going on But just know as long as it's above the

Breakout point from last you know from From earlier then it's potentially doing What it did in the last Cycle Right I know there's a lot of people that that Think that Bitcoin dominance doesn't Matter anymore because of the stable Coin Market but again what were their Views on dominance a year ago right all I saw a year ago was alt season Calls alt Season is this this is alt season where Dominance is cratering by like you know 20 or 30% right that's alt Season no one In the future is going to look at this Move by dominance and say oh look at That all season no this has been Bitcoin Season was not it's not been alt season Alt season is where dominance is going Down very very quickly and I just I Don't I'm not saying it can't slowly Fade until we have a sufficient reason To bounce like we did over here in April Of 2019 what I'm saying is that at some Point I think there's going to come a Time within the next few months where It's going to get a massive bounce out Of this Range and guess what will happen if that Happens then people will call the top on It again but again I mean like you know

It's possible that 55% is the high but I Hope that I've provided some compelling Evidence for you to think about that Might show why it could be premature to Assume that that is the the the main Outcome there are reasons to think that Bitcoin dominance could break out again Hopefully I provided that in this video If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and again check out The sale on into the crypts premium at Into the I'll see you guys Next time bye


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