Why the next Bitcoin bull run may start sooner than expected

After several months of trending Downward we finally saw some bullish Price action in January it seems that Markets were anticipating an imminent Central Bank policy pivot however the Bitcoin rally has already cooled down And it looks like the Federal Reserve Has no intention to lower interest rates Anytime soon so how should we interpret These signals is Bitcoin Bound for new Lows or is this the beginning of the end Of the bear market and most importantly How should investors prepare for the Next parabolic Bull Run I tried to find Out in my conversation with Mark yusco Founder and CEO of Morgan Creek capital I'm Giovanni on this show we challenge The ideas that shape the world of crypto In each episode we assess a crypto Narrative a macroeconomic Outlook or a Potentially disruptive technology only The most solid ideas will make it to the Other side Foreign So the first month of 2023 was Unexpectedly bullish for crypto Bitcoin But also equities so what do you think Is this the beginning of the crypto Summer that you were talking about last Year ah great so no it's not the Beginning crypto summer Um it's a short squeeze a good Old-fashioned short squeeze both in Equity markets and the crypto markets uh

Everybody Was you know getting short towards the End of last year I mean it was just it Was a horrific market right bonds had a Horrific market stocks had a horrific Market crypto had a horrific Market Everything was negative and what happens When everything's negative People start selling for tax purposes Towards the end of the year then what Happens is you have to wait 30 days uh For wash sale rules and then you can buy These things back and so what happens it Used to happen all the time Giovanni in January so everyone would do their tax Loss selling in December they'd wait There 30 days and sometime in January They would buy these assets back and You'd get this big move in the things That had done the worst the year before What I'm trying to say is Big short squeeze hugely overbought Hugely overbought Bitcoin says Overbought as I've ever seen it that is Not a condition to start a long-term Bull run right that's a condition for Short-term weakness and uh uh kind of a Retracement and then the start but the Pattern we need to look for and we Talked a little bit about this last time Is Even though there's chop in Spring what You're looking for is a series of higher Lows

Now you like higher highs too but that's Not as important as higher lows if you Keep making higher lows that means There's accumulation pressure in the Market and I think You know we're going to be range Bound In this call it 20 to 24 range for a While then We'll be closer to that that summer Period And I think that's just time Place and events Aprilish and again seasonally Q2 And Q4 are the most positive for Bitcoin So it's setting up to have a pretty nice Move uh April major in this year we are Already noticing that this rally is Losing steam we are seeing that the Price of crypto tend to remain quite Depressed as long as there is this uh Increase this hike of interest rates What do you think when are we gonna see A pivot finally I think zero chance they Cut rates anytime anytime soon the Fed Clearly is not loosening right they're Not tightening as quickly but they're Still doing QT they're still shrinking Their balance sheet and they're still Raising But the pboc Has Unleashed a huge wave of liquidity I mean they are flooding their market And Chinese stocks are up a ton Chinese Markets are are rallying

Um Economic activities surging And China Drives liquidity around the world so Used car prices are now plummeting Because there's more cars coming in China's reopening all that good stuff so I think by the end of this year CPI is Going to be Close to it could be zero could be Negative Um Month over month uh quarter of quarter But you know trailing numbers probably Around two percent That's not a situation where you need to Be tightening there will be a Tailwind I Think for digital assets the market is Saying by the middle of this year The fed's going to be cutting now I Think that's too aggressive I don't Think that's going to happen it's Possible certainly possible but I don't Think it's gonna happen what I do think Is very likely very likely is the Fed Signaling That okay We're good But that will be interpreted as We're going to cut and then risk assets Will explode again I would like just to Mention a survey by Bloomberg According To which 70 percent of the investors That participated in this survey believe

That the stock market has still to reach A bottom this year and even around 30 35 Percent so the biggest cohort in this Survey thinks that Um this bottom won't be reached until The second half of 2023 so basically uh We saw that the crypto markets are Highly correlated to the stock market But and and so if that survey is sort of Correct that means that the the crypto Market will also follow and uh touch a New bottom again just Totally disagree because crypto markets Particularly Bitcoin are very Uncorrelated to stocks Other than for very short periods of Time during de-leveraging The only time correlation Rises is when Bitcoin is being forced to be sold Because there's too much leverage There's not as much leverage in the System as there was we had a big Deleveraging In the crypto market I'll argue there's Very little leverage left very little Leverage though so the the idea there's Going to be a bunch of unwinding in Crypto not very likely now is there Still leverage left in in stocks yes Could that deleveraging cause people to Sell Bitcoin Less why Because they already sold so now what we Have is a holder base that's very

Different from the holder base of stocks And Bots I would like to just to make Sure I understand you can accept a Scenario where in April May we're gonna See this crypto somewhere getting the First movements while stocks are keeping On falling I I think Bitcoin and Equities are going to be very very Uncorrelated this year and I think this Is a big year for Bitcoin there are some Pessimistic views on 2023 so you seem to See it more as a sort of spring where Things are going to start moving for Others it's going to be an year of Apathy so according to uh Jason yanowitz Who is the co-founder of block Works Um basically 2023 is going to be the Last phase the last year of the bear Market which is the worst part because The previous part was the like most more Dynamic part where everybody got uh Basically pushed out from the market While the the worst part is the apathy So where prices are flat prices are not Moving and so people start like losing Hope according to this Vision the real Movements in the market are going to Happen not earlier than 2024 what do you Think about this vision Laviano Um you know I talk about this partner Every Friday on on the margin and uh I don't think I don't think that view is I think that view is is technically

Accurate right that the last phase of The bear Market is the toughest part my Belief is We start out of that cycle a little bit Earlier I think the market always Anticipates the having so if the having Is maybe you're right maybe it is March April but but sometime in that in that Qq1-ish zone of 2024 nine months before That is usually when the beginnings of Summer start to you know the crocuses Start to pop and the buds are this year They're not going to be a lot of taxes Paid because last year was so crappy so I think there's not going to be a lot of Downside pressure in in March April this Year so my guess Is we'll probably start earlier rather Than later probably have an early summer As opposed to a late summer would be my Guess okay and that's interesting Because now I would like to go more into The numbers so basically Um looking at the sort of price dynamics Of Bitcoin historically around the Halving what I noticed is that the big Move is happening not before the oven it Happens usually after in the last cycle In during the year prior to the halving The price of Bitcoin raised of about 17 While the big move the big price Movement happened right after so in the Year after the halving we saw around Like a 50 550 percent uh increase of the

Price so if that's if if history is Gonna rhyme as you said that means that Yes we're gonna see probably some some Price movements from now to the halving But that's not gonna be like an Explosion it looks a bit unlikely that We're gonna reach the hundred thousand Arc by the end of the year if the Having number is a hundred All right uh if that's the target And then we back up from that we say all Right well where are we today we're at You know 23 000 where should we get by The time the having occurs You know could we be back to Fifty sixty thousand yeah that's pretty Good guess then as we approach the Having we start to accelerate into the The target And then we hyper you know then we Parabolic past it the fair value is 100K Per Bitcoin how close we stayed a fair Value is the question do I think we get There by the end of this year Probably not but Could be surprised right let's see what Investors should do in terms of building Their crypto portfolio just give a Couple of tips on how to build this Portfolio for people that just went into The market and they are basically Waiting for the next crypto summer to Start don't wait don't wait bye Buy some today buy some tomorrow buy

Some the next day buy some next week buy Some next month don't buy it all at once Pick a number right I say You know three to five percent whatever The number is if you're younger that Number can be higher you know I'm Talking a three to five percent core Position Bitcoin higher if you're Younger that's what I'm talking about Now beyond that you wanna you wanna Invest in in ethereum as a platform that Builds out the infrastructure around the Digital future Great uh you still believe that the most Significant portion should be in Bitcoin And not in ethereum I'm asking because There are a lot of uh people that Actually I think ethereum will Outperform Bitcoin this year A lot of small numbers A lot of small numbers says ethereum Will outperform Right it's a smaller asset base if There's a you know a bull market It will likely outperform and history Tells us the smaller market cap Assets Outperform in Bull markets so If if you want to own a core asset Forever Accumulate Bitcoin if you want to have a Portfolio of other technology Investments that you think have a higher Upside potential Own some other things own ethereum own

Avalanche own Um polka dot own Cosmos Mark it's always A pleasure to discuss with you these Issues and I'm really looking forward to See how your outlook plays out in 2023 Probably are going to talk again in the In the next few months and see at what Point we will be so thanks again for Coming on with showmar no thank you I Really enjoyed it and I look forward to The conversation in the summer Foreign