Why Is Bitcoin CRASHING?! Crypto Market Update!!

The crypto Market is crashing at the Time of shooting this video BTC is down By more than 15% from its recent highs And most altcoins are down by high Double digits why why this has everyone Wondering why the crypto Market is Crashing how much lower it could go when It could start to recover and just how High it could go when it does today's Video has all the answers this is one You want to watch until the end Okay let's start with why the crypto Market is crashing as you can see the Crash began shortly after BTC hit an All-time high of almost 74k last week The initial correction was not Surprising as BTC has recently had a Habit of seeing a small pullback after Hitting a new all-time high mostly due To Long liquidations for context long Liquidations happen when BTC Traders bet That its price will go higher but it Goes lower instead The Practical effect of this is that it Forces them to sell the BTC they had Borrowed to make that bet which causes Btc's price to fall sharply this causes More liquidations and so on and so forth Now what was surprising though was that This time around BTC continued to go Lower logically this suggests that there Was some additional Catalyst for the Continuation not just liquidations from Irresponsible Traders for reference

There are two catalysts that affect Crypto prices crypto specific factors And macro factors crypto specific Factors include things like the approval Of the spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this Year which sent BTC and some altcoins to New all-time highs macro factors Meanwhile include things such as lower Interest rates which the Federal Reserve Signaled were coming last December Likewise sending stocks to new all-time Highs now to understand whether it's a Crypto specific factor or a macro Factor That's affecting crypto prices all you Must do is compare btc's price to that Of major stock indices like the S&P 500 And the NASDAQ if the price action looks The same it's probably a macro Factor if It looks different then it's a crypto Factor here is where things get Interesting the S&P 500 hit a local top On the same day that BTC hit a new All-time high last week the IAL story is That the subsequent crash in both was Due to two back-to-back inflation Readings in the US the CPI and the PPI Which came in higher than investors were Expecting for those unfamiliar higher Inflation readings increase the risk That the FED will keep interest rates Higher for longer the Practical effect Of this is that it's harder to borrow Money which is negative for the economy And the stock market today's prices

Often reflect what what investors Believe the FED will do next now there's Just one small problem with the official Story about high inflation readings Causing stocks and crypto to crash That's that the S&P 500 and BTC both hit Their local highs on the same day as the CPI print if inflation and interest Rates were the real reasons both would Have crashed not rallied the answer to This mystery seems to lie in something That very few Traders and investors Think about and that's passive flows Basically most of the price action in The stock market is driven by automated Buying and selling by Pension funds and The like in the absence of any big Surprises they always buy and this is Where the significance of the spot Bitcoin ETFs becomes apparent what they Fundamentally did was make it possible For BTC to be a recipient of the passive Flows we see in stocks this is why BTC And stocks have essentially been going Up only for months and why this trend Could continue after this crash but Again this begs the question of why the Crash happened well by now you should Have an idea of what the real answer is In short most of the passive flows into Stocks and BTC stopped according to Macro analyst chem Carson this is a Cyclical phenomenon that has nothing to Do with inflation or interest rates now

Naturally this begs the bigger question Of when these passive flows will come Back and resume pushing BTC and stocks Higher the answer seems to be sometime In the next few weeks at least according To Chen between now and then though both Asset classes could head much lower than Invest as expect it's also possible that We'll see another big leg lower in the Second quarter more on that in a second And by the way if you're enjoying the Video so far be sure to smash that like Button to help others find it and Subscribe to the channel and ping that Notification Bell so you find our next Video so now that we know why the crypto Market is crashing we can address the Question of how much lower it could go The answer here ultimately depends on Your time frame in the short short term It's possible we'll see a recovery rally As Traders and investors buy the dip This is where technical analysis comes In handy specifically the Ballinger band Indicator as you can see BTC tends to Rally up to the Ballinger band moving Average after a big correction this is True across most time frames but in this Case we're looking at the 4-Hour and Daily chart for short-term analysis Zooming out to the Daily reveals that BTC could experience a recovery rally to Around 67k in the short term which would

Translate to a comfy 6% gain from Current prices most altcoins would Likely gain 12% or more since they tend To be about twice as volatile as BTC in Both directions assuming this occurs Then there are two possibilities the First is that BTC gets back above the Ballinger band moving average on The Daily and continues to Rally the second Is that BTC gets rejected by the Ballinger band moving average on The Daily and continues to head lower given That the passive flows that have been Propping up BTC and other assets Apparently won't be around for another Few weeks it's therefore safe to assume That the downside scenario is more Likely the Catalyst for this downside Scenario could very well be something Said by the FED today FYI the FED will Be announcing its interest rate decision In the next few hours and releasing its Updated projections for where it sees Interest rates headed later this year Depending on when you see this video This information could have already come Out you'll know if it's bullish or Bearish based on btc's reaction come to Think of it the FED press conference Being bullish could very well be the Catalyst that takes BTC back up to the Ballinger band moving average on The Daily of course it's also possible that It could get a boost from crypto

Specific factors such as large Institutions announcing that they will Buy the Bitcoin ETFs however if we don't Get any bullish crypto catalysts and if The fed's decisions are perceived as Bearish by investors then BTC could fall To the Ballinger band moving average on The weekly which currently sits at Around 47k now it's important to note that These large Corrections can occur during Big bull markets and if you want to Trade these short and medium-term moves Then be sure to check out the coin Bureau deals page it's got trading fee Discounts of up to 60% ENT and sign up Bonuses of up to $60,000 on the best crypto exchanges These deals are only available to coin Bureau viewers and they won't be around For long so take advantage of them ASAP Using the link in the description but This is just how low BTC could go in the Short term in the medium term I.E Q2 BTC Could see a much bigger correction to be Clear this doesn't mean that BTC would Go down only as I mentioned a few Moments ago there would be recovery Rallies along the way and some of these Could be quite large as with the shorter Term correction though there would need To be some Catalyst that triggers Another leg lower in the next 3 months Funnily enough there seems to be one

That's analogous to the lower passive Flows that caused the recent crash and That's liquidity the amount of money in The economy now as you can imagine Measuring the amount of money in the Economy is isn't easy one of the few Who's been able to do it accurately is Macro analyst Michael Howell similarly To chem Michael's core thesis is that Flows fundamentally determined price Action the difference is that he looks At flows from central banks and Governments whereas chem is more focused On passive flows from Market Participants believe it or not but Michael's focus on liquidity makes it Possible to time the BTC bottom in late 2022 now obviously there were other Crypto specific factors at the time that Caused BTC to crash notably the FTX Collapse but liquidity played a big role As well in fact Michael believes that BTC is hyp sensitive to Liquidity that's why his prediction that Liquidity will see a slight decline in Q2 is so significant it foreshadows a Much deeper correction in BTC and stocks Than investors are expecting this Decline in liquidity is due to a Combination of factors including tax Season in the US and elsewhere the catch Though is that Michael's research Suggests that BTC lags liquidity by About 6 weeks meaning that the impacts

Of the liquidity drain won't be felt Until later in the quarter specifically Late May or early June at that point It's possible that BTC could test the Ballinger band moving average on the Monthly consider that the B bound moving Average is currently around 31k by May or June though it will Probably rise somewh closer to 40K Regardless it would be a sizable Correction that in Michael's estimation Wouldn't last long as liquidity will Start rising in Q3 and continue Rising Until late 2025 this ties into the question of when The crypto Market will start to recover Again the answer ultimately depends on Your time frame I'll start by reminding You that BTC and most altcoins are Likely to experience sizable recovery Rallies even if they continue to head Lower in the short to medium term I'll Also remind you that the liquidity Trends identified by Michael may not Affect crypto prices until the summer And that the flow Trends identified by Chem are likely to resume between now And then it goes without saying that you Need to keep all the other macro and Crypto factors in mind too When you put all of these factors Together you get a very mixed picture For when the crypto Market could recover In the short term for example the

Passive flows could come back but we Could get a bearish crypto Catalyst like Another sec Crackdown that causes crypto And particularly altcoins to stay Stagnant on the flip side the passive Flows that could have been spooked by The recent crash and reduced their Exposure to the spot Bitcoin ETFs could Then hear that the judge has thrown out The sec's case against coinbase for Instance this would be extremely bullish For altcoins and have a neutral to Positive effect on BTC factor that would be extremely Bullish for altcoins would be a spot Ethereum ETF approval which Could Happen By May unfortunately though it's looking Less and less likely that this approval Is in fact coming fortunately it seems That this is already priced in remember Investors are always forward-looking now The caveat is that these are all factors We can't predict with any certainty Thankfully there are two that we know Will come no matter what the first is The Bitcoin harving it's currently Expected to occur around the 20th of April and it could be bullish for BTC And the rest of the crypto Market Depending on the ETF flows if the spot Bitcoin ETF flows are high before and After the harving the Restriction in the Amount of new BTC being issued could Supercharge it price conversely if the

Flows are low and btc's price is still Lagging this could put many Bitcoin Miners out of business and potentially Drag btc's price lower now the second Factor we know will happen is the fed's Next press conference which will Likewise occur at the end of April Depending on how the economic data looks Coming into that conference it could be Bullish because investors are expecting A rate cut or bearish because they're Expecting the status quo in any case the Key takeaway is that the crypto Market Will likely only start to recover in Response to a bullish macro or crypto Catalyst as you might have gathered There's no shortage of these but their Effects on the crypto Market may not be Clear-cut there are also lots of bearish Catalysts lurking around too but that's Just in the short term in the longer Term the passive flows and the liquidity Seem to guarantee that the crypto Market Will start recover sometime over the Summer it's believed that the fed and The treasury will also try to juice the Markets as much as possible leading up To the November election on that note You may have heard that market returns Tend to be higher during election years What's fascinating is that chem found That these returns have been the highest During times of populism and contested Elections which is effectively what we

Had back in 2020 and what we will have Again this year To put things into perspective the Average stock market return during a US Election year is around 11% versus the Average of around 7% in a non-election Year however populist and contested Elections make up the chunk of the Election related returns yielding over 20% each on average when you factor Those elections out Average stock Returns are actually closer to 5% during Election years the more you know anyway Fun facts aside the fact fact of the Matter is that BTC and altcoins will Likely end the year much higher than Their recent prices this means new All-time highs for BTC that could be Closer to 100K and all-time highs for Most altcoins not just mem coins 2025 is When prices could truly go parabolic Though besides the fact that there will Be more political certainty in the US And perhaps geopolitical certainty by Extension it's very like that most Central banks will be cutting interest Rates by the time 2025 rolls around at The same time they will be legally Allowed to hold crypto on their balance Sheets speaking of which whistleblower Edward Snowden recently made a bold Prediction that another country besides El Salvador will announce that it's been Accumulating BTC later this year it's

Safe to say that Edward might know Something we don't given that he spent His early career in US intelligence Meanwhile the Swiss central bank once Remarked that it could consider holding BTC on its balance sheet in the future This kind of announcement could be the Catalyst for a blowoff top in BTC Historical Cycles suggest the blowoff Top could happen between the spring and Summer of next year so this brings me to The biggest question of them all and That's how high BTC and altcoins could Go once they recover and continue going Up only I'll start by saying that There's no shortage of price predictions Out there and that nobody at the coin Bureau has a crystal ball at Least not to my Knowledge that said if you watched our Last crypto market update you'll know That btc's all-time high could range Between 120 and 200k depending on Whether you buy into the idea that all The money printing during the pandemic Has inflated the value of BTC and most Assets by 40% relative to previous Cycles if you don't buy the inflation Adjusted idea then the diminishing Returns we've seen over btc's previous Cycles suggest that it would hit between 120 and 140k if you do buy the inflation Adjusted idea then btc's cycle top could Be between 180 and 200k again it's

Impossible to predict this with 100% Accuracy it also makes assessing altcoin Cycle tops much more difficult for Instance eth's historical performance Suggests its cycle top could be Somewhere between 15 and 20K this Assumes that eth is following BTC one Cycle behind which would make sense Given that it's been subject to the same Catalysts ETFs Etc on the inflation Adjusted basis however eth cycle top Could be between 21 and 28k note that You can do this calculation yourself for Most of the other altcoins take what you Believe to be the most likely top and Add 40% to it as that's the amount of New money that was created during the Pandemic I'll use Soul as another Example to help you out it's possible That soul is following eth one cycle Behind in which case Soul's cycle top Would be between 1,200 adding 40% to that range gives you A range of $1,400 to $1,700 for so which Would be much higher than most investors Expect now from our perspective it seems More likely than not that the crypto Market will surprise to the upside Regardless of inflation adjustments That's because this crypto Market cycle Is the first one where institutional Capital can easily flow into the market It will likely be the biggest one we've Seen so far just remember that a

Downturn will come eventually and when It does the outflows will be just as Large you can rest assured that we will Do another urgent crypto Market update When that day comes with a bit of luck Though the next one we do will be Because of bullish market conditions Fingers crossed Eh and that's all for today's video Folks so if you found it helpful be sure To smash that like button if you want to Keep getting helpful crypto content be Sure to subscribe to the channel and Ping that notification Bell and if you Want to help others understand why the Market is crashing share this video with Them as always thank you so much for Watching and I'll see you in the next One this is guy signing [Music] Off