Why I’m Buying As Much Bitcoin As Possible (Before BlackRock)

But this is what sets the this is what Sets the stage for the next bull market Right Supply gets so constrained gets so Tight that all of a sudden you know a Small amount of capital Flows In Bitcoin Can do nothing but just go up Bitcoin Expert and gen Z investor Dylan LeClaire At this year's Baltic honey badger Conference explains why the race is on To buy Bitcoin and tradify traditional Finance like BlackRock is about to cause A supply shock with this asset all right So this first uh this first chart's Pretty obvious just draw down for Bitcoin all-time high uh Bitcoin Notoriously volatile right that's kind Of one of the main talking points of Skeptics is how volatile it is right Okay and as Dylan explains I'm gonna React to some of this and first off just Basic chart draw downs from all-time High we've already had a 75 drawdown From our all-time high a few years ago Not to say we can't go lower but when in Doubt zoom out and understand we've Already went down a pretty 30 equivalent Amount compared to other Cycles uh Here's bitcoin's price realized price What is realized price you can also Think of it as like market cap and Market realized cap it's essentially Like the realized market cap of Bitcoin Would just be all of the supply at the Price it last moved whereas a market cap

Is just the circulating Supply Multiplied by the price of last moved so Realize price is just the average cost Basis of all Bitcoin it's the price of Whichever utxo last moved valued at that Price instead of just the current Exchange rate right and so what you Notice is it's a lot less volatile and It's kind of just going up in this Lockstep fashion so many people say this Is sort of a more accurate way to Value The network of Bitcoin right now the Realized price of one Bitcoin is around Twenty thousand dollars compared to the Actual market price twenty five thousand It is very rare that we have ever broken Below the realized price and again Always very quickly at the bottom of Bear markets we'll come back to this This is all building Um and so we're going to change Pace a Little bit and we're going to kind of Move to what drives these Cycles but Here is uh long-term short-term holder Supply this is just long-term holder Supply right so as a percentage Circulating Supply uh Bitcoin that's Basically haven't moved in six months Utxos that haven't moved in six months Uh less short-term holders less Exchanges right and so we're basically At like 80 this all-time high you can Kind of see so long-term holders are Defined by bitcoiners who have at least

Held their Bitcoin for over six months As the data shows if you hold for at Least six months you're in this you Understand you're not just a Trader and In the dark blue it's a long-term holder Profit and light blue long-term holders Were in loss notice that there's always A point in cycles that when so many Long-term holders eventually do get in Do get in profit that's when they tend To sell this is a great metric to Mark Tops and it looks like that's when Long-term holders get to be 60 actually Closer to seventy percent of the network That's when they usually start selling Take some profits and on the flip side Those same hodlers tend to set the floor As well when we get to around 40 45 Percent of long-term holders in profit They're the ones that don't typically Sell at these levels because they're Believers they're going to wait till Bitcoin goes up they have conviction and Thus the supply of the Bitcoin long and Short-term hodlers in either profit or Loss great way to kind of see potential Bottoms great way to kind of Mark Potential tops you can kind of Play like hodlers and the and the cycle Right Stacks at stack SATs stack SATs never Sell all of a sudden there's just not Enough Bitcoin to go around some Capital Comes in and bitcoin's price goes

Parabolic and to the mainstream you know Media or to you know the Legacy Financial analyst it's this random thing That comes out of nowhere and no one can Expect it right but really right like Hobbler set the floor that's actually Happening and like you know that doesn't Stop you know minus 20 daily candles Doesn't stop you know uh some like Massive liquidations or wipeouts but This is what sets the this is what sets The stage for the next bull market right Supply gets so constrained gets so tight That all of a sudden you know a small Amount of capital Flows In Bitcoin can Do nothing but just go up and you can Kind of see that you know that long-term Holder Supply draws down into these Parabolic bull markets what's that Saying well I mean you stacked for three Years Bitcoin five X's you take a little Bit off the top that makes sense right Okay so you know one of the popular Narratives and what I was trying to show With this previous chart of kind of that That holders of high becoming more Constrained and then drawing down as Bitcoin goes parabolic is you know often Like the having is is attributed to like Bitcoin's price runs so while we've been Talking about the supply side the demand Side obviously equally as important and This is essentially showing Global Liquidity so again comparing traditional

Finance and this new asset Bitcoin and Based on the data Bitcoin has always had A correlation to the amount of liquidity Globally in the system it's like oh well You know having happened you know number Go up and you know like I admittedly Like stock to flow is a you know very Great for showing that kind of like Absolute scarcity it was you know one of The things for me in high school I saw The stock to flow ratio and was like Well great you know that I the Difficulty adjustment what is all this Stuff and it kind of sent me down a Rabbit hole like well it's you know it's Uh it's good content but it's not really We have so many other things to look at As to what's actually driving having This and having is a really you know Pretty you know oversimplification of What's happening so here's Global M2 It's taking a bunch of different uh M2 Money supply of a bunch of different Nations putting it in dollar terms so Not the local currency it's it's normal Asking in dollar terms and then the Middle pane is the the year over year Percentage change right and you can kind Of see when there's a there's a massive Expansion of the monetary Supply and Admittedly like M2 isn't the perfect Measure of money supply it takes into Account Bank Reserves and all this you Know Financial jargon whatever we're not

Going to get into that but really like The rate of change is what is uh Important here that's what's you know Kind of uh what you should take away and And look at that rate of change of the Money supply the global money supply and Dollar terms and the Bitcoin price right There's something there coincidence or Not Who knows but uh there's obviously Something uh happening there with that Shark right Bitcoins you know just Recently became this macro asset but It's kind of always been one right even Though there wasn't you know the big Trad five funds and Larry Fink talking About it and you know five years ago They were saying it's a money laundering Index and now they're saying oh Bitcoin's a global asset well bitcoin's Always been a macro asset right it's Always kind of Gone with the with the Tide of this and again for me sort of Interesting how this has marked the Bottoms just like been very correlated With the tops zooming in today we are Starting to see the pickup again and so Here's Bitcoin and and the US PMI Purchasing managers index that's just a Month over month change of of basically Manufacturing activity right above 50 is Expansion below 50 contraction right so You can kind of see that with the green And the red and you can kind of see that

Also you know aligns with the Bitcoin Cycle right so just another kind of one Of those things things that like Bitcoin Has actually been uh you know when this Interplay of the trade by cycle for a Long time this is not a recent Development so you know it's like oh It's the having and you know Bitcoins This asymmetric thing that has no Relation to anything else right it's Uncorrelated well not really and that's Not a bad thing and I'll explain a Little I'll explain why in a little bit So this one pretty self-explanatory all Right so here's Global debt uh you know We've all I'm sure everybody here is Familiar with the talking points of like You know fiat's gonna devalue forever And it is it's a mathematical certainty That's just how the credit based system Works it needs to expand forever uh Otherwise it's going to collapse right It's a death-based fiat-based monetary System Um so you know it would be better if This was shown in log chart but I Actually do like the linear chart here To kind of show that exponential uh sort Of debt burdens this cannot go down it Just it just can't right it the only way To pay all this debt down is more debt Paradoxical Lisa so this is where we Start to build Dylan is about to make The case that traditional Finance

Doesn't have a choice Global debt is so Out of control the Fiat money system is So broken they need hard assets like Gold like Bitcoin doesn't have to be Just Bitcoin but the traditional system Is broken and the race to buy Bitcoin Has already started nobody really knows Like this this is just an estimation They have no idea right that no one has Any idea how much debt's out there it's A complete Black Box which is fine you Know we accept that Um but if you just think of Bitcoin Right this little 500 Billion dollar blip look how small Bitcoin's market cap is compared to the Rest of things in the world right this Is U.S Equity markets U.S public debt Gold Bitcoin I could have added you know Other Equity markets it's all just kind Of an estimate Right Bitcoin is just a blip it doesn't Matter tiny little blip on the asset Side of the balance sheet and right now Essentially it's just a bunch of big Laser ad bitcoiners that are stacking Stats and you know preaching satoshi's Gospel to their family members at Thanksgiving and people think they're Crazy and for the most part they are Um but it's relatively irrelevant on the Global balance sheet right and every Boom and bust cycle that we've seen if We go all the way back to the first

First slide every single boom and bust Cycle we've seen is mostly just like the First one is like Cypherpunks and nerds and bitcoin's Exchange rate wasn't a it was just a Joke and it was just mouth box and the Second one was like drug dealers and you Know Silk Road users and like the kind Of The Cutting Edge of like software Developers 2017 was like the first like Speculator cycle really that hit the Mainstream you know the crypto Natives-ish and you know they all the All coins came about and it was like First time it was like more of like a Financial asset than anything I mean it Was always obviously a financial asset a Monetary asset first one hit the Mainstream in 2021 was the first time it Was like a real macro asset or at least Perceived as such obviously there was There's people that have always kind of Understood that this was the natural Trend but these are kind of the Development phases of the cycles and This is all building to something stick With this Dylan about to explain why Traditional finance will have no choice Comparing volume of negative yielding Debt and Bitcoin Dylan about to Absolutely cook now we're gonna go uh to I guess I can go to this one but still Talking on that balance sheet asset to Liability side of things right so so

What is bitcoin doing it's monetizing It's growing in value you know 5x10x Every Four years I mean that's not a given Right but that's kind of the trend even If it diminishes in its percentage Growth terms which it will which it Already is It's monetizing it's growing on the Asset side of the balance sheet and what Is this Fiat game this Fiat system of Perpetually expanding credit perpetually Expanding debt burdens right as we've Shown Uh well it's essentially this just a Boom bust cycle of a you know of an Asset bus cycle a business cycle and the More and more debt that we stuff in the System the more extreme The deleveraging's become right so in 2022 Bitcoin kind of had its own and as You know as had plenty of times crypto Bitcoin had its own deleveraging right a Bunch of yield firms went bus and hedge Funds and Neo Banks and whatnot we kind Of saw this a similar dynamic In in the Legacy system with a couple Banks that you know also happen to be Bitcoin crypto Banks and long duration Bonds with down 30 right and you know we Still probably see a recession everybody Knows about OA everybody knows about the Tech bubble right so these like you know Asset bubbles are a function of the

Human psychology it's not obviously Native to bitcoin as we all know so like When you think about the maturation of Bitcoin as it increasingly becomes Financialized and that's like you know Kind of like maybe a a bad word for some Like you know really like Cypher Punk uh Style maximalists which I which I Understand right like don't buy the BlackRock ETF right buy your own Bitcoin Hold your own keys not kyc bass cuddle Huddle et cetera right like 100 percent But the suits are coming and they're not Going to buy on bisque uh they're gonna Buy Larry Fink's ETF and that's fine Let's go through why and so here's Here's just uh you know this is another Example of like kind of the craziness of The past 20 years right negative Yielding debt not in real terms not like Adjusted for inflation before inflation Right there was 20 trillion bucks of Debt instruments where I'd give you 100 Bucks and then 20 years from now Including all the interest payments I Got I would receive 99 back total right So you can kind of see that Bitcoin The relative trend of of this negative Yielding debt the size of this negative Yielding debt Bitcoin mirrored it quite Closely now with this with this interest Rate rise with long duration debt Getting absolutely killed there's There's almost no nominal yielding

Negative negative yielding debt so Before and before adjusting for Inflation there's really no negative Yielding debt out there anymore and you Know obviously you see Bitcoin crash at The same time but in real terms there's Still a whole bunch of dead instruments Right adjusted for inflation in Hindsight that's not going to give you a Positive Roi here's another kind of Comparison right major central bank Balance sheets Bitcoins market cap Percent okay and obviously major central Bank balance sheets have gone up and Will continue to go up because there's Going to be a whole bunch of debt Issuance the ETFs right some people have Different opinions on them they're Coming they're definitely coming right Larry Fang all them BlackRock ishares Vanguard they're coming the investment Banks there will be Bitcoin ETF yeah Right here I'm showing this is a bny Melon slide a huge Investment Bank multi You know 50 billion dollar bank right This is showing ETS and Equity as a Percent of their collateral right so Collateral for for a bet in the banking Industry and again like I'm not like a Bank of Trad Phi simp here but like They're coming and this is what they do This is a Goldman slide right You can leverage equities ETFs as collateral and borrow basically

At fed funds up to 25 million bucks is For private clients right so what are we Transitioning from here we're Transitioning from crypto to gen trading Crypto collateralized you know Bitcoin Luna Celsius Binance degenerate crypto leverage right To bitcoin and trenching itself on the Asset side of this Global balance sheet Of 100 you know 100 200 300 trillion Dollars Fiat liabilities Bitcoins Monetizing on that side right so last Point and I'll wrap it up here one of The main opponents of like oh you know The ETFs are bad right the Financialization of Bitcoin is bad is Well look at what happened to gold right Track five basically neutered gold It's fair it's a fair statement Um you know the paper markets for gold Well you can't teleport gold You can't settle gold instantaneously You're in 10 minutes across the world Right so so these paper distortations Never really get resolved they can Continue to play these paper games Whereas say with Bitcoin right here's Bitcoin spread so very interesting Comparison here between btc's market Price and then the spread the amount of People trading BTC CME Futures yes Trading and Futures manipulate price but Even when those Traders are Irresponsibly short they can't fight the

Spot buying meaning they can't suppress BTC even though they tried Bitcoin spot Price CME Futures you look at what Happened post FTX CME Futures was Trading at like a five percent discount Relative to the spot market and what Happened right These guys all got wrecked when Bitcoin Started a pump so the the data now is Saying at the very least now is saying That even though CME is like 25 of Futures volume of Futures open interest And I remember CME is non-bitcoin Settled it's a Futures Contract but it's Settled in cash right you park Treasuries as collateral to trade Bitcoin and it settles in cash right so So is this bad well Good or bad They're still not they they're still not Suppressing the price right that up or Down they're gonna have to settle and And that spot rate is really what Matters be sure to click the like button Today if you got value and now Dylan Brings it home on why Bitcoin buying Tradify getting in is inevitable this is Literally the Congressional budget Office from the United States their Projections for debt to GDP and deficits As a percent of GDP This is their best estimate like they're Padding the numbers here best estimates Right so so the debt is going up forever

The dollar is going down forever that Sounds like an outrageous statement it's Not they're telling you this There's been 52 instances of countries Over a hundred and twenty hundred thirty Percent debt to GDP Ever And 51 of them have defaulted explicitly Or implicitly either by not paying their Debt at all just saying sorry I can't Pay you or just currency devaluation is How you get out the US has a money Printer so it's going to be option two They're gonna devalue the hell out of The currency So this is to say that Bitcoin is going To Nestle itself on the asset side of The global balance sheet it's going to Continue to get bigger and bigger and Bigger and this is our Trojan Horse the ETF investment Banks yes We we're going to encourage them to come In they're going to Nestle it on the Asset side of their balance sheet Instead of paying down the liabilities It's going to grow as a greater and Greater share of that asset until it is Systematically important As an asset just as housing is just as Equities now are as as on the asset side Of that balance sheet right equities are Systemic systemically important for U.S Individuals Pensions

401ks Etc right so Bitcoin this is a Natural progression there's nothing we Can do to stop it And it's a welcome development it's a Natural path of its monetization if you Haven't already be sure to click Subscribe we drop one video per day Keeping you informed about crypto also a Personal announcement for me and my Brother I'm excited next weekend we will Both be in Singapore from major Conference token 2049 we'll be doing a Live episode of killer whales that Crypto TV show that has not aired yet But it will for those of you in Singapore be sure to join us and also in Amsterdam next month Edward Snowden as You know speaking at the Bitcoin Amsterdam conference link down below use Code altcoin daily for 10 off your Ticket see you tomorrow


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