Who Could Replace Biden & What It Means For Crypto!!

Joe Biden's cognitive decline has turned The 2024 presidential race upside down The uh with with with the covid excuse Me with um dealing with everything we Have to do with uh Look if many of the president's own Supporters are now desperate to see him Throw in the towel while his opponents Can only pray he keeps going if the Democrats don't want the election to go The same way the recent Biden Trump Debate did they're going to need a Replacement and fast the clock is Ticking and Joe's fans and foes alike Are asking questions like when camela Will Gavin and why won't Michelle and Any change to the Democratic ticket this November will have profound implications For the crypto Market that's why today We're bringing you the lown on the Democrats most likely to replace Biden And what their candidacies could mean For crypto stay Tuned President Biden's car crash of a Debate with Donald Trump in late June Exposed more people than ever before to The reality of his cognitive decline and Frankly whichever Wy Biden Aid Greenlighted that debate in the first Place has to be the smoothest wouldbe Assassin of a sitting president in US History well whether that decision was Dastardly or just delusional the damage Has been done despite Biden's slurred

Protestations his campaign's days are Probably numbered and it doesn't help That Biden's opponent just survived an Assassination attempt and came out of it Looking more powerful than ever Trump's Supporters are now doubly determined to Put their man back in the white house While the Democrats are in a shambles Over who their own nominee should be and For those of us in crypto Biden's exit Can't really come soon enough because Wherever your political loyalties lie His administration has been nothing but Trouble for the crypto industry if you Haven't been following you should check Out our last video on the 2024 Presidential elections for the full Background on exactly why it is we say This after all it was Biden who Appointed the pro cbdc Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary and crypto arch Nemesis Gary gendler as SEC chair but Unfortunately they are only the most Visible faces of a government wide Crackdown on crypto because while the SEC periodically cries look it's a Security and diverts our attention Anti-crypto forces in the White House Influential members of Congress the Federal Reserve the FDIC OCC and doj Have conspired to shut crypto out of the US banking system entirely and when it Comes to regulation the federal Government has kicked the can down the

Road for four long years while other Countries and territories have been Laying down rules and regulations for The crypto industry the Biden Administration hasn't bothered and this Is likely no mistake that's because Crypto's biggest opponents in Washington Believe that passing regulations would Only further legitimize an industry that They're hoping will just go away this Has stranded industry leaders from Coinbase to consensus in a legal Minefield where any day they could wake Up to a new enforcement action but Recently cracks have started appearing In the Democratic Party Line earlier This year 21 Democrats in the House of Representatives and a dozen in the Senate voted against the White House to Repeal a controversial SEC accounting Policy the policy is known as sab1 121 And effectively makes it harder for Banks to hold crypto Assets Now the vote To kill this policy was particularly Interesting because President Biden Announced in advance that he would veto The motion if it passed now senators in Favor of repealing sab1 121 didn't have Enough votes to override a presidential Veto and this means that their vote was Purely symbolic and had no real effect In this context Democrats notably Including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer were more free than usual to

Vote in the crypto industry's favor and Against their own president now this Might look like a small crack in the Party line but you can bet your bottom Satoshi that it's going to spread fast That's because the Democrats are staring Down the barrel of a presidential Election and seeing some hard truths at The end of it they can no longer ignore The fact that being anti- crypto appeals To nobody in particular and alienates Millions of American voters who care About Financial Freedom but whoever Makes it onto the Democratic ticket this November if they do start singing a Crypto-friendly tune it'll be thanks to One person Donald J Trump that's because After years of flip-flopping between Bashing Bitcoin and flogging nfts Trump Has taken another look at the crypto Vote and spotted an open goal and now He's claiming that he will be quote the Crypto president and get this in July The Republicans published a draft party Platform declaring that they will quote End democrats' unlawful and unamerican Crypto Crackdown and oppose the creation Of a central bank digital currency the Cat is well and truly out of the bag now And if Democrats have any sense they'll Be scrambling to put together a softer Message on crypto in response the Content of that message will depend on Who becomes the nominee at the

Democratic National Convention in August So let's investigate just who that might Be hold up a second there guy sorry to Interrupt folks but I just wanted to Very quickly tell you about the coin Bureau deals page now this is the place Where we have put together some of the Very best deals and Promos in all of Crypto so you can think things like Exchange signup bonuses trading fee Discounts and money off of Hardware Wallets and much much more besides so if You want to check that out coin.com /de Is the place to go or you can just use The link in the description of this Video down below thanks very much and Now back to you guy now if Democrat Party leaders have decided on a Replacement for Biden then they're Keeping quiet about it at the moment all We have is a big question mark and Monetized speculation in the form of Prediction markets now if you're not Familiar prediction markets are quite Self-explanatory they're just a Mechanism for betting on the outcomes of Future events simple as they may be Though they provide a much richer source Of data than say opinion polls poll data Can be useful but they only provide us With a snapshot of attitudes from some Point in the past and depending on who Conducted and participated in the poll And how it's not uncommon for different

Polls to contradict each other on the Same issue prediction markets on the Other hand are more akin to a 247 livere Stream of public opinion they aggregate All available sources of information Including all of the available news and Polling data Plus Market participants Interpretations thereof the result in Theory is a canonical source of truth That you can watch unfolding in real Time Microsoft research Economist David Rild has argued along the same lines That prediction markets are superior to Polls quote I can create a poll that can Mimic everything about a prediction Market except markets have a way of Incentivizing you to come back at 2: A.m. and update your answer this is very Much the case when it comes to poly Market which for our money is the Richest source of opinion data on the Question of a Biden replacement at the Time of making this video poly Market Users have wagered over $100 million on Who will be on the Democrat Party ticket Come this November now we should point Out that polym market bets are made in Usdc and so its user base is likely Almost entirely Pro crypto however their Only motivation for betting one way or Another is to make money from whoever is Most likely to win the profit motive has No political loyalty right now you can See from the graph here that for most of

This year poly Market participants Overwhelmingly bet that Biden would be The Democrat nominee right up until the Debate showdown between Biden and Trump Poly market showed Biden's chances of Being the Democrats nominee steadily Increasing to to a peak of 91% and then the debate happened Biden's Performance caused his odds on poly Market to fall off a cliff after Bottoming around 35% they've recovered To around 54% but remain volatile amid The mounting pressure for Biden to walk Away and his public refusal to do so now If Biden does step down poly Market has Kamala Harris as the favorite with 32 2% Odds this makes sense because if Biden Isn't mentally fit to run for a second Term well it stands to reason that he Isn't fit to serve the rest of this Current term either so if Biden is to Exit sooner rather than later then the Public will get to know president Kamala Harris before the election takes place If this happens it's hard to imagine That Harris wouldn't also take the Nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August at the moment no Other Challenger is within touching Distance of Harris the closest candidate Is Michelle Obama Who currently has a 6% Chance of becoming the nominee according To poly Market Gavin Nome and Hillary Clinton are trailing Obama with 3% and

1% odds respectively behind them Robert F Kennedy Jr Dean Phillips and Elizabeth Warren complete the list each with a Chance of less than 1% interestingly This prediction mark Market also has a Category labeled other including Whitmer Currently at 6% this means that the Collective chances of anyone listed here Including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer are about the same as Michelle Obama's how to interpret this is Anyone's guess for example is Whitmer on 5% and the rest of the eligible Population collectively on 1% or maybe It's the other way around who knows Anyway the numbers on poly Market are in A state of flux and could swing wildly As the Biden campaign trundles along and His wouldbe Replacements are put under The media microscope just look at Michelle Obama she has explicitly ruled Out running for president and yet the Market has her as the strongest Contender behind vice president Harris With a name like hers if Michelle Obama So much as sneezes in the direction of The White House between now and the Democratic National Convention it would Likely send shock waves through the Prediction markets Anything could happen Between now and then so whether Biden Can cling on or if he's replaced by Another Democrat Challenger we'd better Be prepared for every possible outcome

And on that note it's time we took a Fine tooth comb through each potential Candidate's record on crypto and ask What their shot at the presidency would Mean for us we'll start from the bottom And work our way up and leave out Candidates who the market thinks have a Sub 1% chance of making it for reference This means Elizabeth Warren and RFK Jr Whose records on crypto are well known And Dean Phillips an ostensibly Pro Crypto member of Congress who dropped Out of the race back in March that means Our first Challenger is Hillary Clinton Poly Market currently gives the former Secretary of State who lost the Presidential race to Trump back in 2016 A 1% chance of becoming the Democratic Nominee now Clinton last publicly voiced Her opinion of crypto in 2021 at a panel Discussion in Singapore it started off As a nice enough comment with her Describing crypto as quote very Interesting and somewhat exotic but Quickly went downhill from there she Went on to warn that crypto has the Potential quote for destabilizing Nations perhaps starting with small ones But going much larger and as such Governments should quote pay greater Attention now this comment suggests that Clinton has learned little about crypto Since 2016 back then her campaign Announced that Hillary wanted the

Government to adopt blockchain for Public service applications however Internal Communications from the Clinton Campaign leaked by Wikileaks revealed Less enthusiastic stance on crypto per Se Clinton's campaign had briefly muted The idea of accepting donations in Bitcoin before dismissing the idea as Quote too Libertarian well whatever it political Veillance may be anyone who turned their Nose up at accepting free Bitcoin back In 2016 has got to be kicking themselves Now and when it comes to her advocacy For blockchain back then it sounds to us Like Clinton was just dropping buzzwords For the sake of it based on this record The kindest thing we can say is that she Probably doesn't understand crypto very Well and therefore might be willing to Change her tune if she thinks it would Benefit her politically moving on our Next Contender is California governor Gavin nusum who the market thinks has a 3% chance of stealing the nomination Among Democrats the case for nuum is a Fascinating will he won't he Nome talks Like a DieHard Biden Ally and walks like A hungry Biden replacement Gavin nusum Is the co-chair of President Biden's Re-election Campaign Committee and Recently vowed to quote never turn his Back on Biden that sounds very honorable But it's kind of redundant considering

That the future of Biden's candidacy is A matter of Health rather than Party Loyalty all it would take is one Diagnosis from a White House doctor and Nome could supplant Biden without any Hint of betrayal now clearly the markets Don't like nome's chances but it's worth Noting the media storm that is Surrounded the California governor since Last year in fact he's been accused of Running a quote sh Shadow election Campaign to raise his own profile Nationally and internationally and this Activity peaked when he met with XI Jing Ping and Benjamin Netanyahu last year Suffice to say it's highly unusual for State Governors to meet with foreign Heads of state after nome's second Encounter with she President Biden Himself remarked quote he's been one Hell of a governor man matter of fact he Could be anything he wants he could have The job I'm looking for quite well if Nuum continues to court media attention Then we should probably keep an eye on Him and what he has to say about crypto As it happens he's considered one of the Democrats most Progressive voices Although he tends to discuss blockchain And crypto as somewhat separate topics During his term as California's governor Nuum has passed legislation implementing The kind of Public Service blockchain Application that Hillary Clinton once

Vaguely invoked the law in question was Signed by Nome in September 2022 and Enables Californians to receive State Records like birth marriage and death Certificates via blockchain and speaking Of 2022 it was a tough year in which to Be a crypto Advocate earlier in the year Nome had signed an executive order that Sought to promote blockchain research Spur Innovation and explore how the Technology might be used in government This already sounds more Progressive Than anything we've seen from the Biden Administration however Nome would later Claim in an interview that this Executive order hadn't gone quote as far As a lot of people wanted in the Industry and unfortunately the executive Order came just days before the terror Luna collapse happened and weeks before The Celsius bankruptcy sentiment around Crypto became very frosty very quickly And soon a new bill to regulate the Crypto industry with a state level Licensing system was passed through both Chambers of California's legislature Nome ended up vetoing this bill on the Grounds that it would be quote premature To lock a licensing structure in statute Without taking into account both the Research conducted under his own Executive order and quote forthcoming Federal actions but if Nome was Expecting the Biden Administration to

Show some ership on regulating crypto he Was in for a disappointment and worse Still not long after nome's veto FTX Imploded and suddenly vetoing crypto Regulation was not such a good look that Was pretty bad luck but on the whole Nome's appreciation for blockchain and Efforts to engage with the crypto Industry do seem to be in Earnest his Record makes it hard to imagine that a President Nome would allow Gary gendler And Elizabeth Warren to continue being The loudest voices on crypto in the Democratic party and for what it's worth Nome clearly understands crypto better Than Hillary Clinton does but at the Moment the markets are saying there is a 97% chance that he will not be the Nominee this year so let's not dwell on Him too much moving on so next up on Poly Market is Michelle Obama with a 6% Chance of becoming the Democratic Nominee this year that's twice as likely As Gavin Nome despite having explicitly Ruled out running for President Obama Remains a fantasy candidate for many Democrats and when you look at polling Data it's not hard to see why earlier This year an ipsos poll asked Respondents how they would vote in a Hypothetical election showdown between Various Democrats and Donald Trump the Poll's results caused quite a stir Because Michelle Obama came out Head and

Shoulders above every other Democrat the Biden versus Trump scenario was a dead Heat with 40% of respondents opting for Each candidate kamla Harris versus Trump Fared only marginally better with 43% Saying they would vote for Harris and 42% for Trump and then there is Michelle Obama with 50% versus Trump's 39% like I Said earlier if Obama so much as hints That she wants to throw her hat into the Ring the the numbers on poly Market Could change very quickly what such a Scenario would mean for the crypto Market requires some pretty creative Interpretation that's because Michelle Obama never went out of her way to Comment on crypto one way or another and Before you ask President Barack Obama Was also pretty tight lipped but in the Absence of direct comments from Michelle The best we can do is comb through her Husband's record as president and assume That she will have a similar stance if She were to take the job he once had so The Obama years coincided with the very Earliest days of crypto when Barack Obama was first elected the Bitcoin White paper was 4 days old and when he Completed his second term the total Combined market cap of all Cryptocurrencies was $7 billion that's Less than the current market cap of dot As such it's not all that surprising That Obama never publicly mentioned

Crypto while in office however in 2015 He did sign an executive order that Declared the quote increasing prevalence And severity of malicious cyber enabled Activities to be a national emergency And empowered the government to Confiscate digital assets without quote Prior notice of a listing or Determination this was a nightmare for Fans of civil liberties and due process And doesn't seem very crypto-friendly to Say the least then in 2016 President Obama expressed concern about the Implications of encryption becoming Strong to the point of impenetrability Although he didn't mention crypto or Blockchain per se he might as well have Been doing paid PR for Hardware wallet Companies that's because Obama warned of The potential for an impenetrable device Akin to a quote Swiss bank account in Your pocket to thwart the ability of law Enfor M to apprehend criminals or Enforce taxation to us this sounds like Another case of a politician with a poor Understanding of the public Ledger System on which cryptocurrencies exist Now this is a little alarming because When Obama made this statement he had Already declared a National Emergency of Quote malicious cyber enabled activities That called for Government powers to Seize digital assets without warning hm Anyway this is Barack Obama we're

Talking about and you never know maybe Michelle is a closet dejen flipping mem Coins in the trenches like the rest of Us but frankly when it comes to crypto She is a Known Unknown based on our very Limited information we'll tentatively Say she's probably not the ideologue That Elizabeth Warren is and probably Not the advocate that Gavin Nome appears To be at any rate the markets highly Doubt she even wants to to run for President so let's keep it moving next Up on poly Market's prediction Market is The slightly odd construction of others Including Gretchen Whitmer the market Says there is a 6% chance of someone in This category replacing Biden but as we Said there's no way of knowing how much Of this 6% chance belongs to Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and how much To the rest of the eligible population Of the United States so let's take a Pinch of salt as we look through Whitmer's record like Nome she is a State Governor and a co-chair of President Biden's re-election Campaign Committee who continues to voice support For Biden publicly recently though she's Been sending some rather mixed messages Specifically she tweeted her support for Joe Biden's re-election and in the same Post dropped a donation link to her own Political action committee rather than Biden's re-election campaign smooth

Anyway like Michelle Obama we don't have Much to work with when it comes to Whitmer stance on crypto back in 2019 She signed into state law a series of Crypto specific updates to Michigan's Penal Code however this merely clarified That criminal activity involving crypto Would be treated the same way as Criminal activity involving cash it Doesn't tell us much in other words then In 2020 Whitmer was mailed an anonymous Letter by someone threatening to murder Michigan State Employees unless she paid A ransom of $2 million in Bitcoin State Authorities determined that the threat Was not credible and nothing came of it In 2022 Michigan Senate passed its own Blockchain and cryptocurrency commission Act establishing a commission to look Into everything from the use of Blockchains for State marijuana Registries to the use of Bitcoin as Legal tender in Michigan whito was Tasked with handpicking several members Of this commission from the crypto Industry unfortunately a aside from the Michigan Senate Bill itself there's Almost no information available online About the composition or work of this Commission or whether it was even formed At all so once again we're grasping at Straws Gretchen Whitmer looks to us like Another relatively blank canvas if she Has any strong views on bitcoin

Blockchain cbdcs or just about anything Else relevant to crypto she's done a Good job of keeping them a secret and This brings us to our main character Vice president kamla Harris or as President Biden called her in a recent Press conference vice president Trump at The time of making this video poly Market shows a 32% chance of her taking The Democratic nomination this year Versus Joe Biden's 54% Deja Vu warning Harris's record on crypto is basically Non-existent so we're going to have to Do some reaching here well we can start With her catchphrase quote what can be Unburdened by what has been what can be Unburdened by what has been who we can Be unburdened by who we have been what Can be unburdened by what has been a Statement so inoffensive and devoid of Meaning that you could apply it to just About anything including crypto and walk Away feeling vaguely positive about a Harris presidency but if we're going to Find anything of substance we'll have to Look a lot harder Let's see well back in 2020 decrypt Published an article about Harris's VP Campaign team hiring the crypto-friendly Ryan Montoya previously CTO for a California NBA team during montoya's 6ear stint with the Sacramento Kings the Team became the first in NBA history to Accept Bitcoin payments they also

Started mining crypto in 2018 auctioned Off players jerseys on ethereum and Launched their own altcoin however as Harris's head of advance and scheduling Montoya's role on Harris's team Ostensibly had nothing to do with crypto We suspect it wasn't his blockchain Acumen that landed in the job on Harris's team so much as his long History of service to the Democrats Montoya worked on both of President Obama's election campaigns in 2004 he Worked for John Kerry and before that he Served in the department of energy During the Clinton administration and Unfortunately after joining Harris's Team in 2020 he gained notoriety not for Shilling crypto to the vice president But for allegedly fostering a culture of Workplace bullying and abuse okay so Maybe he's not our guy moving on now as Far as we can tell the best indication Of how a president Harris might treat Crypto can probably be found in her deep Ties to Silicon Valley in the 2010s Harris courted the support of big Tech And rode it all the way a victory in California state elections to become Attorney General and then Senator Contributors to Harris's campaigns have Included the likes of Facebook CEO Cheryl Sandberg Apple's former design Guru Johnny I and Salesforce CEO Mark Benof among others she owes her career

To Silicon Valley and has not been known To bite the hand that feeds a few years Back the New York Times published an Article that Shone a light on Harris's Lass approach to Big Tech here's an Excerpt quote Miss Harris rarely Challenged the major tech companies After she became California's Attorney General Jamie Court president of the California based consumer Watchdog said His group lobbied Miss Harris in 2011 to Support legislation that would force Companies to stop monitoring the online Activity of users if they clearly stated That they did not want to be tracked she Refused to sponsor the bill or support It he said two years later Miss Harris Sponsored and California enacted a less Stringent law requiring companies to Post in privacy policies whether they Abide by do not track requests and what Personally identifiable information they Collect she presided over this era of Great consolidation and Power in the Hands of these Tech Giants and she Didn't do a thing Mr Court said end Quote now what this means for crypto is Open to interpretation on the one hand Privacy is kind of a big deal for crypto Advocates and the tech Titans of web 2 Are not exactly our best friends in this And many other regards so it's safe to Say that Harris is not ideologically Aligned with crypto per se but on the

Other hand crypto is a subsection of the Tech industry so we might hope that some Of that Silicon Valley Goodwill will rub Off on crypto too And if one thing's for sure it's that Harris is loyal to her donors if only we Had an American Crypt billionaire who Could throw money at politicians like Kamala Harris so that they would do our Bidding H do you think she can accept a Donation from a convicted felon you know What never mind look crypto and Silicon Valley aren't exactly the same Constituency but if Harris does end up Running for president then a donation Here and there from the us crypto Industry probably wouldn't hurt she Seems pretty pliable and if wealthy Donors can influence her appointments at The SEC Federal Reserve Treasury cftc And so on then at the very least we Could probably look forward to a less Hostile Administration should she get The Democrat nomination and win the Election perhaps this is just wishful Thinking though or of course a president Harris might continue the Biden Administration's war on crypto in even More Dastardly and hairbrain ways than We've seen so far this is all just Speculation though not voting advice Okay but if recent history is anything To go by democrats are willing to change Their tune on crypto the moment that

Trump starts to court the dgen vote so Then who will it be well at the time of Making this video there's just over a Month left until the Democratic National Convention and Biden is refusing to Budge love him or loathe him Biden is Not going to become any more Lucid Anytime soon and the notion that he will Be mentally fit to run the United States Until 2028 just seems kind of cruel as far as Crypto is concerned our best hope for a Biden replacement is probably Gavin Nome Purely because he seems to be paying Attention and receptive to the crypto Industry whether or not he would be a Real Advocate is another question Entirely and at any rate the market Markets are giving him pretty slim Chances if or perhaps when Biden does Bow out it is of course the vice President who will take over but if Those prediction markets are to be Believed Harris's chances of beating Trump are Slimmer than even those of a Former first lady who's been out of Office for eight years and apparently Wants nothing to do with this election Anyway but if it's a choice between the Current President and Vice President we Should probably hope it's the latter Because Biden has proven that he is no Friend to crypto and Harris well at Least we can say that she has yet to

Show her hand as she always likes to say What can be unbidden sorry unburdened by What has Been okay we could keep speculating and Watching the numbers on poly markets Swinging up and down but that's quite Enough for one video If you think we Missed anything then be sure to let us Know about it in the comments and if You're hoping for a pro crypto president As much as we are then go ahead and Smash that like subscribe and Notification Bell it'll help spread the Word and keep you first in line for the Next installment of our election Coverage as always thank you for Watching and I will see you next time This is guy over and out