Where Is The Crypto Bottom? (Worst Case Scenario)

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about the total cryptocurrency Market capitalization and discuss what Is the worst case scenario or at least What I would consider to be the worst Case scenario if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out into the cryptographers Premium at into the cryptiverse.com we Of course do have different tiers Available including a free one so make Sure you check that out link is in the Description below we sent out a Weekly Newsletter Um for the free tier now what I want to Do is I want to go through Systematically the discussions that we Previously had provide an update as to Where we are right now and talk about The potential implications for the Future now I am going to go through this Systematically it is going to be Repetitive if you've watched the prior Videos so there's a good chance you Already know what I'm going to say be That as I may I'm still going to go Through the motions anyways okay so just A fair warning now a couple of caveats One caveat is that it's called the worst Case scenario okay first of all just Because I think of something as the Worst case scenario doesn't mean that it

Is I could be wrong about the worst case Scenario second of all Um I do also understand that Theoretically the worst case scenario is That everything goes to zero now I know A lot of people might just assume that I'm always bearish on crypto if you've Watched the channel over the last year But you might be surprised to know I'm Actually very long-term bullish on Crypto and I think you'll see that side Of me come back out probably probably Within the next half year or so okay so Fair warning if you you know if you are Bearish and you've been following me for A while because I'm you know I lean in The same direction as you have I will be More than likely pivoting my stance uh Within the next six months or so And I I just want to you know I just Want to mention that and and just sort Of be upfront about it so one of the Things that I think we need to to talk About here is we first need to get Grounded as to how we got here in the First place and why we're making the Comparison in the first place The.com crash that occurred more than 20 Years ago has thus far served as a Fairly accurate analog as to what Cryptocurrency is going through I think You could make the case that this is Our.com crash now that might be scary to A lot of people but when I look at

The.com crash I just think of how lucky People would have been had they stuck Around for the entirety of the bear Market and then continue to watch the Next bull market take take shape Generational opportunities were found in That okay these opportunities don't come Around very often in the same way that People might have doubted the future of Of tech stocks way back then I think They're going to doubt crypto today but When we look back on this phase in in 10 To 20 years I think it will have been Very obvious that we are just going into A generational opportunity for the Cryptocurrency asset class all right now I want to be clear that that is where I Stand I do think there's reason to Believe that prices could easily go Lower and and we're going to talk about That in this video okay So this all started you know more than a Year ago when we kind of acknowledged Hey there's actually a lot of eerie Similarities between the crypto crash That we're experiencing and the.com Crash that occurred again more than 20 Years ago one of the similarities is the Fact they essentially both peaked at Approximately 3 trillion another Similarity is that you had the.com Stocks overtake the Super Bowl in the Same way that crypto stocks or not Stocks but cryptocurrencies in crypto

Companies in general overtook the Super Bowl it sort of makes me think like hey If I ever see an ad in the Super Bowl For this you know groundbreaking new Technology it's probably going through a Bear market right Um because to get the type of money that You need for these companies to really Get into the Super Bowl you sort of have To go through a bull market and a fairly Massive bull market at that and so by The time they have that money to really Go throw into Super Bowl ads Likely something is is a mess okay Um so you have to consider that now Again we peaked at around 3 trillion Back then in the.com Crash but we also Know that crypto peaked at around 3 Trillion in this in this cycle right you Can see the total market cap at crypto Peaked at around 3 trillion now we've Followed this series up and by the way I'm going to link all these videos in The description below if you want to go Back in time and look at some of the Other videos and kind of follow along as To how we got here Um so this is one of the First videos And and you know we went systematically Through the comparisons between you know What not what the NASDAQ did Um and how far it had to drop and over At what time frame that had to occur and And sort of made the comparisons to

Crypto and I mean you can see that Bitcoin was right around 42k or so just Below 42k now we followed this video up Um about I mean again this one was over A year ago we followed this video up About nine months ago with another video Where we we continued to look at the Similarities between these you know Between these two um to You know Cycles one one with tech stocks Of course 20 years ago and then of Course this one with crypto and we also Noted that inflation and that high and This High inflation was likely going to You know make the FED extremely hawkish Right extremely hawkish and and back Then we talked about the dollar likely Rallying on up to around the 115 level I Mean you can see at the time it was only Around 104 right I mean when we talked About this this actual move right the The dollar the US dollar currency index Was around 104.7 and we we sort of Speculated that we were going to see it Climb all the way to around you know Just below 116. now again if you go take A look at at the US dollar currency Index this is more or less what what Happened right I mean you see back in That video about nine months ago I was Writer on these levels 104 and we went Up to right around that 114 115 level so Again like there are reason reasons to Continue to follow this it's it's played

Out well so far And it could continue to play out it Could also deviate at any point and Remember it's not about being right or Wrong right like it's it's never about Being right or wrong it's just about Managing your risk and realizing what Are these what are potential outcomes And trying to weigh various outcomes in Your mind and and then figuring out Which ones do you think make make the Most sense and then sort of hedging Yourself for you know the two most Likely scenarios that you could see or Something like that right so we we Follow the video series up talking about That and then you know half a year ago We did something similar and we really Noted the three primary rallies that the Tech stocks had back in the.com Crash we Had a 40 rally a 50 rally and a 60 rally And unfortunately none of them marked The bottom right none of them did and And we talked about how it looks like This 60 rally could be aligning with a Typical crypto bottom that occurs at the End of a year-long bear Market uh you Know occurring sometime like November December January February time frame Right so we talked about how difficult That might be and then of course we we Followed this up three months ago again Continuing to talk about this potential 60 rally and then you know we did it

Again a month ago as we were climbing This 60 rally up to the 50 week estimate And the reason why we did that was Because the NASDAQ was also rejected off Of the 50-week SMA and then we most Recently talked about this when Bitcoin Was right at 25k you know I actually Made this video and I was I was I was Somewhat nervous to put it out because I Don't like coming out and being the bad Guy and saying you know hey like what if We have to go back down But there's there's something that has Happened since this video that I think It's worthwhile to follow up on and I Just want to play a very brief clip Um now this is not to say that Everything I've said in these videos has Been 100 accurate I I know that it Hasn't and I know the exact path has has You know not been exactly what we Necessarily envisioned it would be and It never will be and and even the path That we might put forth in this video It's likely not going to go on that path But one of the things we talked about Was also this um this uh weekly RSI Maybe we'll get to it here in a little Bit but I just want you to remember we Talked about the weekly RSI uh I'll go Ahead and show it I guess we talked About this weekly RSI and how and I'll Just play the clip So a lower low on price

A higher low on the weekly RSI Followed by a sixty percent move to the Upside which rallied to the 50-week Moving average in the same way the NASDAQ did now the weekly RSI ended up Putting in a double top the first top Did not reach the 50-week SMA the second Top went just above it but in in both Scenarios the weekly RSI was essentially The same Bitcoin You can see that right now the weekly RSI has broken a little bit higher but Of course the leak just started right we We don't know yet how this week's going To end if so that's the point right we Talked about how look we broke above This potential double top but the week Just started we don't know how it's Going to end and so before we get too Far into this into this video I want to Draw your attention to the fact that if You look at the weekly RSI It ended up being a double top right What happened right it was it was the Week wasn't over and and what happened By the end of the week We came back down and look at this look At this comparison here right it ended Up being a double top on the weekly RSI In the same way the NASDAQ weekly RSI Was in fact a double top more than 20 Years ago and you know I I don't imagine This is going to play out exactly

Forever it does sometimes seem almost Too too perfect you know like so it's Like something's got to give at some Point and you could even argue it's Actually deviating a little bit right Now I'll explain more about that later Because you might say well doesn't it Seem like it's the exact same thing There might actually be a small Deviation we'll talk a little bit about More about that later in the video but Again There are a lot of comparisons and and Really the comparison really starts with This same thing right like this 77 Drawdown in the NASDAQ okay followed by A 60 rally to the 50 week and remember With Bitcoin one of the things we said Right in that video that I just played The clip of is that the first move does Not make it to the 50 week but the Second one goes above it on Wix right And that's what happened right no no Weekly closes above it we had Wix above It just like the NASDAQ did Um you know a long time ago so that's Where we currently are so we're going to Get rid of the weekly RSI Um well we might revisit it in a little Bit but just keep it in the back of your Mind so the NASDAQ had the 77 correction Followed by a 60 rally to the 50 week Okay now we've seen Bitcoin do the same

Thing it's the exact same move Um so far anyways right you you see that 77 rally to the downside followed by That 60 rally to the 50 week with the Double top on the weekly RSI and the Rejection off of the 50-week moving Average right Furthermore We also saw the NASDAQ put in a series Of rallies that were quite impressive The first one being about a 40 rally Go over to the total market cap you guys Remember the rally from from January to March of of 2022 guess what it was about A 40 rally we know that the nasdaq's Second primary rally was a 50 move and Guess what with total do you guys Remember the rally that we had back in The summer of 2022 guess what it was a 50 rally now there are some small Deviations here and I think we owe it to Ourselves to be fully transparent about About where these things could be Deviating Um for total this most recent rally was About a a 49 rally so it wasn't really a 60 rally like we had with the.com stocks On that third rally the Counterpoint is That Bitcoins rally was 60 whereas its Prior rallies were not exactly the same So if you look at bitcoin's first rally It was about a 40 rally but the second One was only about a 40 certain rally so It's not the exact same thing but you

Get an idea right there are a lot of Similarities between the the tech stock Collapse back in in the.com Era and the Crypto Collapse that we're seeing today right a Very a lot of similarities between them And I I think we owe it to ourselves to Continue to Um to look at these similarities in case They continue to play out So We know the NASDAQ 40 rally 50 rally 60 Rally the 60 rally by the way took you To the 50-week SMA and then what Happened the final low was actually About 30 below this one the 60 rally so For total where would that put it you Know where would where would a 30 where Would it put it if we went 30 percent Lower below the prior low it would put The total market cap at around 500 Billion which represents a sizable Correction from the current levels I Mean that's 30 below the prior low from The current levels that would represent Another 40 to 50 percent correction and Again we know that these percentages are Subject to slight changes like it's not Going to be exact so you know maybe it Could be 40 down from here if it's going To follow it or maybe it could be 50 Down you know and get you closer to 400 Billion I've been fairly consistent I Believe in all of these videos on the

Worst case scenario saying that I think The worst case scenario for for crypto Would be somewhere around a 400 to 500 Billion market cap for the entire asset Class another reason that you might Think about it in terms of that is if You take a look at the.com Crash from This peak here it actually crashed over About two and a half years where the Entire asset class went down about 83 Percent now if you were to take a look At total where would 83 percent down From the peak puts you It would put you right around four to Five hundred billion okay which again is Still representative of a 40 50 Correction from the current valuations Now if you take a look at the Wall Street cheat sheet You can see just how similar these Bubbles are right the idea of the Psychology of a market cycle and if you Take a close look at this right you can See you have this capitulation you get The first bounce the second balance is Not quite as high as the first balance And it also puts in a new low right it's Essentially the same thing and what Happens after that right you see it Slowly bleed for for about you know About six months about half a year a Slow bleed and we actually talked about This in the prior videos is that what Happens and I again this is just my

Interpretation of it I could be wrong Okay and I mean you know it's fine if I Am but my interpretation of it Is everyone wants to front run Everything now because everyone's so Aware of of the cyclical behavior that They don't really let it just capitulate In the same way that it has in Prior Cycles if you think back to 2018 and 2014 and other Cycles like at the end of The bear Market you had like a 40 50 Crash but this time we didn't really get That right like it's just like a Pathetic 20 crash Um so it it constantly leaves I think People thinking like well is that it or You know is there more and we didn't Really get a blow off top like we like We have seen in the past [Music] Um But at the same time you might not see a Capitulation bottom what if it's just a Slow bleed It's a possibility right like it's a Possibility what if it's just a slow Bleed where people become apathetic and I think this is something we need to Continue to to sort of reiterate now One thing that I think we should take a Look at as well With the NASDAQ and and with this um With this relative strength index this Could help identify where the bottom is

If it continues to play out okay so if We take a look here Let's look very closely at what actually Happened Because you had a weekly uh the weekly RSI for the NASDAQ kind of break out Um you know break out from these levels Okay put in that double top now remember This double top might be akin to you Know to Bitcoins recent double top at The 50-week SMA and with a relative Strength index okay so let's just go Take a look really quick So again you know breaking out Of this Followed by A double top on the weekly RSI again you Sort of Flip Flip back and forth right Breaking out double top on the weekly RSI now where did the NASDAQ bottom Right where did it hit bottom It bottomed Close to a double bottom on the weekly RSI right so if you were to draw a line Across you almost got a double bottom But here's the thing that was not the Bottom okay What was the bottom was the higher low On the weekly RSI so just kind of like How it was over here Um the you you first had a low and then You had a lower low on price but a Higher low on weekly RSI right this is a Sign of of some type of Divergence where

The Bulls would point to and say hey This is this is actually quite bullish Yeah the price went lower but the the The the strength is fading for the Bears Okay and so you get a Breakout So I think what to look for is Do does the weekly RSI come back down to The same level that it was before And if it does it might not actually Mark the bottom it could just be one Little pathetic last little bounce Followed by a slightly higher low on the Weekly RSI with a lower low on price Okay so that's what you saw that's what We saw play out back in the.com Crash Now if if Bitcoin follows this then what Are we looking for here on the weekly RSI because we clear RSI right right now Is is all the way up at 45. it would Need to go all the way back down to Around 25 or so so if you see the weekly RSI come back down to 25 go back up a Little bit and then come back down and Put in a higher low where a lower low Occurs in price That I mean that that could be it right I mean that could be that could be all She wrote for the bear Market if in fact It's not over which again this worst Case scenario video is certainly Exploring so This is a consideration to make right Certainly a consideration worthwhile uh And and Forest it can be following and

Normally I only provide updates to this Video series every every few months or So I know recently we've been doing it More so every two weeks and the reason Is because it feels like we're getting Into crunch time Um and it feels like this is important Like it didn't seem like an important Deal back a year ago to do it every Single week because you know these bear Market rallies they just take months to Play out and you have to see the 40 Rally manifest itself then you have to Say the 50 route and then you have to See the 60 rally and now we've seen all Three of those right we've seen the 40 Move we saw the 50 move and we saw the 60 move we saw the double top on the Weekly RSI and now we're seeing things Come back down to earth So Where does that where does that lead us To next right where does that lead us to Now well I would like to draw your Attention to a few other comparisons Before we dig a bit further into the Weeds okay So Um This one's dubious at best okay and I'm Not asking you to take it to the bank Certainly but Suppose that you did take it you know Suppose that you did at least take it to

Heart a little bit Um This peak here For the for the NASDAQ back over here in In 2000 guess where it occurred right it Occurred at 48.16. all right now Is it a coincidence yes it is a Coincidence I'm under No Illusion that That this had to have played out in the Exact same way but it actually makes the Numbers quite easy to compare what else In crypto peaked at around 4 800 right Ethereum okay ethereum and and what We're going to do is is we're going to Go take a closer look at that okay So we're gonna go take a look at Heath And see where did ethereum Exactly peek at 48.67 okay so let's put that on the Chart so we'll say 48.67. Now Where Did the NASDAQ get rejected by the 50-week SMA right where did that happen In the.com Crash 1700. let's get the exact number we Don't need a hand wave right I mean Might as well just get the exact number 1710 I'm not going to do the sense but you Get it I mean 17 10. What else just had A rally to the 50-week SMA By the way

If you look at this rally right here it Was a 60 rally now we but we did put in A lower low over here we'll talk about That a little later but where did this Rally take us to it took us to the 50 Week where did it Peak at 1745 okay So this is for ethereum you have 1745 on The chart so 48.67 1745 Look at the NASDAQ 4816 1710 look guys I'm not saying it has to play out the Exact same way but so far history has Been rhyming pretty good okay it's been Rhyming pretty good Um the rally that started this move to The 60 or to the 50-week SMA started at 1088. Started at 10. 88. The rally for ethereum Started here at 10.73. Again I'm not going I we will talk about This capitulation here in a little bit So again you know there are a lot of Similarities the question is well where Did the NASDAQ bottom right well it Bottomed at 7.95. So it bottomed at 7.95. Where is ethereum now it's a 1426 so That would represent a sizable pullback From here to go down to 795 Would put you 44 down from the current price now Here's where it gets a little more

Interesting you guys know the um the Logarithmic regression band that we talk About for ethereum I I reference is like Okay when's ethereum gonna come home Remember The NASDAQ bottomed at 7.95 The ethereum logarithmic regression band Fit2 quote unquote non-bubble data the Fair value of it right now is at 791. Okay so you know this this band where I Think a lot of people just assume we're Never going to go back into it because Of of you know because of all the all The changes that ethereum's had proof of Stake and and you know deflationary Aspects of it they don't think it'll Happen I contend that it easily Could Happen Okay it's just it's so eerily similar That the fair value of the E fit to Non-bubble data which is somewhat Arbitrary based on my own input so we'll Have to take that into consideration but We've had this on the channel for years It's just so funny how after all these Years we developed this back in 2019. After all these years The fair value fit to non-bubble data is 791. the NASDAQ is has been giving us a Blueprint of this crypto crash for a Long time and it bottomed at 7.95 But remember this is a a monotonically Increasing function right it's just Going to Trend higher so again at 791

Today but you know a little bit it'll be At 7.95 right So there are a lot of similarities here Still a lot of similarities that I think We we need to keep in mind now I've also Made some comments before That the Deep value Zone on Eve is four To six hundred so then you know how do I Reconcile that right how do I reconcile That Can be hard too sometimes you know like I I think well to me the the the Deep Value The real deep value would be four to six Hundred is it going to play out I don't know right I mean it could I Hope it I I certainly hope it does but Does that mean does that mean it's not Worthwhile to um to get interested Before then probably not you know what If it plays out like the NASDAQ where it Goes sub 800 and and then that's it the Counterpoint is that when ethereum Really got moving to the downside back Over here It was bad and it was a it was a it was A quite a a plunge from the peak okay so From the from the Peak from this initial Peak to this first low before we ended Up getting that rally to the 50 week it Was an 82 percent drop but whereas the NASDAQ It was only a 77 drop Yes it was a lower low ethereum put in a

Higher low but one of the reasons you Could argue it was a higher low was Because the first drop was so Catastrophic right it was an 82 percent Move to the downside the nasdaq's first Drop was only a 71 move to downside so Yes if you're obviously if you're in eth Bull you're going to look at this and Say well this was a higher low but the Only reason you could argue it was a Higher low is because the first drop was So much more catastrophic than the first Drop that the NASDAQ had so Something like that could play out again Right where it's always possible that Ethereum overshoots the fair value just Like it overshot the first you know the First draw on the NASDAQ had before it Had its rally to the 50 weeks May or not The first one you can see that in in the Past we've overshot the fair value here We went below the fair value we went Below the fair value right here as well And we went below it over here so If that happens the lower bound on this Trend line is 547 so that would get you Into that four to six hundred dollar Range and we've actually gone below this Before so I would say that is still a Possibility Um but I would also keep that sub 800 Level in mind just in case that ends up Coming into play here over the next Several months okay now here's another

Comparison okay I told you we're gonna go systematically Through this so if you have somewhere to Be and pause the video and come back but We're going to go through this very Systematically Take a look At the length of this bear Market from The.com Crash okay it was 133 weeks That's a long bear Market really long Bear Market 133 weeks it's two and a half years in Fact now How long has the bear market for crypto Been well you could think about this a Couple ways you could measure from the Peak which is probably where we should Measure a foam but Most indicators like 99 of indicators That I have that I've created and that Also other people have created Consistently suggest that April was the Top and somehow we just sort of Leveraged ourselves up to a new high Right but The Mania phase was back in April okay That was when the real Mania phase was Interesting with the NASDAQ is that it Also peaked at around that same time So if we actually find the the week of The high It was it was you know close to the end Of March The the Bitcoin peaked in April a couple

Weeks later So what's interesting is if you take This time move here And you go out 133 weeks It puts it In October of 2023. Go back and look at this chart Follow this along where does the bottom Come in October right of 2023 right I think this Is a um sort of looking at the.com crash Like this was October Of 2023 so it would have been as Measured from the first Peak the one That arguably was more important it Would have been a two and a half year Bear Market if you measure it from then If you measure it from April and you Assume that November was the bottom It was still over a year and a half if You just take November 2021 is the peak Then we basically had a pretty typical Year-long bear market right and and Because of that there's reasons to be Hedged you know there's certainly Reasons to be hedged not Financial Advice but there's always a chance Though the bottom is in Um and and that it doesn't have to play Out in the worst case scenario we have To be aware of that right we have to be I'm not going to sit up here and say That anything has to happen that's a Good way to uh to sort of get in trouble

If you if you think something has to Happen then you're you're not adequately Hedged in case it doesn't so we need to Consider like well what if what if the Bottom isn't one thing to remind Yourself of is even at the bottom is in For Bitcoin there's a good chance it's Not in for a lot of altcoins now a lot Of people have pointed out that the Bitcoin has shown a little bit of Weakness recently compared to some other Projects but I will remind you that a Lot of these all coins on their Bitcoin Pairs remain in macro downtrends here's Ada Bitcoin you know there's nothing About this chart that has been screaming It's been it's been showing strength Here's dot Bitcoin right there's nothing There's not strength to be seen here yes Ethereum has been holding up okay and People would point to that but again it Still did technically go down last year And so far this year it still has Technically gone down as well so yes we Could you know we could say that Ethereum's holding up but in the same Way you could also point to the idea That it's sort of playing out in a very Similar manner as to this over here Where you have three red candles two Green to get everyone excited followed By the plunge three red candles two Green to get everyone excited followed By the plunge this also this Plunge here

Occurred in May okay Bitcoin rallied until you know the end Of March early April so you had one Month where the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation held on You could argue that Back over here that month was April now That month is potentially March right And and then you kick the can down the Road one more month and and the same the Same thing could easily play out okay That's something to keep in mind the Other thing that we've talked about Before that has kept me on the bearish Side especially for the altcoin market Is the relatively low Bitcoin dominance Uh probably one of my most um polarizing Opinions but it is what it is I'm not Going to shy away from it I do think There's a lot of garbage in the space That needs to get cleaned up if you take A look at the dominance including stable Coins yes it has had a pretty Significant pullback recently I also see Higher lows this also includes stable Coins if you go and exclude stable coins From the equation you'll notice that It's it's actually been slowly trending Higher for for quite a long period of Time right like just putting in higher Low after higher low after higher low And and I I think that is an important Consideration to make you know if you Include Stables yeah like it deviates if You go look at the comparison between

Bitcoin dominance with and without Stables this is what it looks like so Yes The stablecoin market has grown Significantly you know since May of 2021 But excluding Stables Bitcoin has been Outperforming the vast majority of the Altcoin market even though there are a Few altcoins that have outperformed but There always are and I I don't I don't Mean to hide from that like there always Are some altcoins that outperform One other thing to consider with regards To could Bitcoin uh go lower is take a Look at Bitcoin and I want I want us to Overlay Interest rates So we're going to Overlay U.S interest Rates Take a look at this When did Bitcoin bottom last cycle When we hit the terminal rate Bitcoin bottomed in 2018 when we hit the Terminal rate After we hit the terminal rate Bitcoin Went sideways until the FED started to Cut now Bitcoin didn't go down because The FED started to cut Bitcoin went down Because there was a problem with the Economy and because of that the FED Started to cut The FED recently has been continuing to Raise interest rates right they've been Continuing to raise interest rates

Um and and we know that the expectations Have have been constantly shifting right I mean sort of the expectation on on Where is It ultimately going to go has Been shifting fairly consistently and if I pull it up here Um one of the things that's interesting Is you can see there's actually about a Subtle shift here uh from from 25 basis Points being the most likely outcome the Now 50 basis points being the most Likely outcome not with the most recent Drop in asset prices uh this has Actually come back down a little bit you Can see that yesterday it was actually Closer to 80 percent likelihood of a 50 Business Point rate hike now let's come Back down to about 60 percent the market Is really unsure one of the reasons is Because inflation Um the the the Fairly optimistic Readings on inflation that we got uh Back in November and December a lot of Those were revised back up to the upside Uh like pal like Powell mentioned and Then additionally we've just had a lot Of hot inflation readings since then and So the market has has been potentially Underpricing the the terminal rate but If you go look at probabilities going Pretty far out you can see that the Terminal rate is now being priced to be About five and three quarters and for The FED to start cutting in November

Okay So what happens If The FED reaches the terminal rate in June Maybe Bitcoin rallies right A Bitcoin rallies after they reach the Terminal rate just like Bitcoin rallied After their terminal rate in 2018. But then at some point the FED had to Start cutting because they did so much Damage to the economy that's what sends Us into a recession normally right is They do too much damage to the economy And the FED started to cut so you could Argue that whenever we reach the Terminal rate Bitcoin could Rally from That point until the economy falls apart And the FED has to cut Right If the terminal rate is reached by June And the FED starts If the Fed has to Start cutting late this year that could Also correspond to that September October November time frame where you See a potential lower low on the price But maybe a higher low on the weekly RSI And then perhaps that would would Mark You know be the end of it you know again You know I I say this we look at this And and you get scared some people get Scared you can also look at this and say Wow you know think about the opportunity These guys had

To see that 83 percent move to the Downside followed by a a um a 2 000 Percent move to the upside in the next Cycle Sounds pretty nice to me you know I don't know I mean it's just something To consider right furthermore maybe I'll Throw in a little bit of a just one Bullish thing just uh just to um get you Thinking you guys remember the um the Comparison we made with the prices what If I can just pull it back up if I uh Undo this enough Um there it is This is the this was uh the NASDAQ Where did this rally start All the way back here At around a hundred dollars right I don't know 108 something like that I I Don't I mean I'm not gonna go find it Exactly it was around 108. And then where did ethereum start it's Rally That took us to 4 800. hey where did it Start You if you say it started here in March It's about 90. okay so it it was even From the lows it was basically the same Move 90 so 100 to 4 800. 100 to 4 800. for the NASDAQ it took Place over 15 years for ethereum it took Place over one year For the NASDAQ We then had this

This peak here was at 2 000 but this Peak was at sixteen thousand this is Ultimately the vision I would actually Have for ethereum I mean I'm not saying That it has to go that high next cycle But I do think it will eventually come Out of this mess and and and and Trend Back much higher so I just want you to Be aware that you know while we do talk About these potential negative outcomes And these bearish outcomes we don't do So from a perspective of of saying like Oh well crypto just has to go down Forever it's just trying to have Realistic expectations as to what the Market might actually bring us okay Now a couple of indicators I want to Take a look at if you go take a look at Some of the bottoming indicators there's Plenty of them that you know you could Make the case for that the bottom is Already in right plenty of them you know You can look at the one-year Roi and say Hey you know like it looks pretty Cyclical uh pretty cyclical to me Um the counterpoints is that Bitcoin did Capitulate here in the next few weeks You could see it go back down to those Same levels so that's something to Consider But one thing that I I remind myself of Is that normally the mar the market Bottoms on apathy Take a look at the social risk

They bottomed on apathy last cycle this Time when the market bottoms everyone Starts to tune back in because they just Can't get enough of watching the train Wreck that's why I think we have to Consider like what if The market needs to still get more Apathetic like it did back over here so You can imagine you take a moving Average of this 30-day moving average Right it's it's still trending down just Like it was trending down over here Overlay this with a price of eth and Color code it And what do you get you get something Looks like this what happened when it Went dark blue when the social risk went To the lowest wristband what happened That's when ethereum capitulated it's Heading that way now it looks like to me Um so that's why I think something we Have to be aware of as well furthermore You could look at the total indicator Risk that includes the social on chain And price risk and see kind of where we Are within the context of History right A low a high a lower low a lower high Kind of very similar to what we saw here On the NASDAQ Um Or on the um on the textbook bubble Thing that we were looking at so the Other indicators that I want to draw Your attention to one of them is the

30-day estimated Supply and profit and Loss normally the market cycle bottom Comes after they cross right so cross Bottom Cross In the bottom or sorry the crop fake Cross Real cross right is it something cross For like a day or two the real cross Bottom Across here and then bottom This time I think this is sort of the Fake cross like we had back in 2015. Why because after this very brief cross The market had did not go lower but now You can see there's starting to curl Back up so it's almost like you know the Market couldn't help themselves right Like investors couldn't help themselves They had to front run it but what if we Eventually have to go there anyways and The people that front run it front ran It just got a bit ahead of themselves And and perhaps we still have to go to That level maybe we could also take a Look at at the balance price which is Something that I think is is worthwhile To um take a look at if you look at the Balance price one of the things you'll Note is that normally we get the market Cycle bottom on a daily close below the Balance price you can see this is what Happened in um 2011. you can see that in 2015 that the market cycle bottom

Occurred on daily closes below the Balance price you're like in 2018 the Bar the market cycle bottom occurred on Daily closes below the balance price and Then if you look in 2023 2022 the we Didn't go below it not on not on a daily Close we did Wick below it because you Can see it was at 15 7 and we know we Went to 15 4 or 15 5 and 15 4. but on a Daily close we were not below it and now The balance price is sitting at 14.4 k So you know this could be just to say Hey well you know maybe we just actually Have to come back and complete it you Know like instead of leaving these Things just like slightly out of you Know slightly higher than where they Should have been uh perhaps we Eventually come back down and and do Ultimately put those Um sort of those major lows in Um and it it's just a possibility again There's no guarantees here the other Thing that I I think we we talked about A little bit uh going back to sort of Bitcoin and some of these indicators one Of them is is the um the weekly death Cross So if you look at at the death cross I Mean you can see a lot of people Discount it right because you always get A rally right we've said this every Single time every time you have a golden Cross or not every time but most time

You get a golden cross what happens on The daily time frame You get a dump followed by a Continuation of the trend that's what Happened right you had a golden cross Here you had a dump followed by a Continuation of the trend to the upside But the same thing you could say on the On the weekly everyone always always um A lot of people give these things these Indicators sort of bad uh bad reps but a Lot of times they actually are kind of Informative I mean you have a weekly Death cross and you pump that's why Everyone makes fun of it right because You hear death cross and then it pumps So you make fun of it you hear Golden Cross on a dumps so you make fun of it But normally it in the short term it Does the opposite of what the cross Would indicate followed by a Continuation of the trend that caused The cross in the first place okay so you Saw that on the daily time frame on the Weekly time frame you had a cross a Death cross followed by a pump just to Get everyone to sort of point and laugh At the death cross and anyone who talked About it followed by a continuation of The trend that caused the death cross in The first place look at the S P 500 and Look at the context of History whenever We had a death cross on the S P while You're forward 12 month return was was

Fairly okay it didn't mean that you Couldn't go down another 30 percent from That from that level right go down Another 20 30 percent from the level And you go back and look at the 70s when We had a period of high inflation right Death cross Went down another 20 percent Death cross We went down another 34 percent Right so just because you get the Opposite of what the death cross would Suggest or the Golden Cross would Suggest doesn't mean that it it can Ultimately play out in the same you know Eventually play out even if you get a Short-term move just to sort of uh get People Um sort of offsides on what their Expectations of it would ultimately Bring you know This is something we haven't really seen Before and furthermore You could argue You You could argue that um Sorry let me get the uh write in thing On here sorry I want the uh 400 week Sorry that is the four I want the 300 Week here so let me find the um Let me switch this one to 300. So one thing that we've talked about Before as well is that you know the First cycle sort of held support on the 100 week the second cycle held on the

200 the third held on the 300 maybe we Have to go to the 400 okay Possibility right and the 400 is is Below the prior low okay that's I mean It's it's below 15K so that's something I think you have to consider as well now At some point soon I wanna I'm gonna put Out a video and and we're gonna go Through the the the the bull case and The bear case Okay because obviously This was the bear case but we we have a Video series called the Bulls versus the Bears we did one a few months ago in Fact Um and in that video series we said hey Look guys I know a lot of people think June's the bottom but there's a good Chance we're going to be putting in new Lows based on what we're seeing with the Um with these indicators and in fact we Did and so I think it's worthwhile to to Sort of systematically go through those Indicators again to sort of get a gauge As to as to where we potentially are now One thing to consider here in the short Term Is that Bitcoin is at the bull market Support band so Um you know this is sort of the first Line of the fence for the Bulls right to Try to hold here the Counterpoint for The Bears Is that normally after You know after a year where it just goes

Down and we get a pump above the bull Market sport band we fail to hold it on The first attempt We failed to hold it in 2019 on the First attempt and we failed to hold it In 2015 on the first attempt so the Argument is that while we could fail to Hold it here That doesn't mean you won't see it Bounce a little bit I mean it bounced a Little bit in 2019 before going below it But that is something to consider is That normally you don't hold it on the First attempt the market is just still Too weak now you might say well what's Going to cause what would cause us you Know what would cause this worst case Scenario because cyclically seems like Bitcoins run its course has it not I Mean go look at some of the other Indicators right go look at the um Go look at the mbrvz score it looks Pretty low right compared to Prior Cycles you might say well it's slightly Higher yeah but so was the prior cycle Was slightly higher than the one before That and that was higher than one for That so mbrp z-score seems somewhat in Check the pure multiple seems somewhat In check though the Counterpoint is Normally goes down to 0.3 and we didn't Quite make it there it's like we got so Close right we got so close if Bitcoin Had gone down just like a couple

Thousand more dollars the indicator Would have already flashed uh at the Same level it had before the hash ribbon Sort of gave a false signal back in the Summer Um and we we talked about I you know I Said I did not believe it I thought we Would go put a new low at the end of the Year and you can see that it gave a new Signal in January but it could again be Just a false signal normally you'll get Several of them before you get a real Sustainable Market uh so that is Something to consider as well One thing that I was looking at recently [Music] Um I'm getting a little ahead of myself I Mean I don't want to talk about too much In this video we'll leave some stuff for For future videos but The I think the other you know there's Other there's some other things we could Talk about I'm just trying to figure out If it's worthwhile to to really go how Far if you look at this chart the total Market cap the lower regression trend Line down here you can see it's below 600 billion we mentioned that it you Know the worst case is probably Somewhere four to five hundred billion If you take the percent difference Between the market cap and the fair Value log in the concussion trend line

You get something looks like this draw a Line at the bottom you can see we Normally go about 65 undervalued right Now we are only about 52 undervalued so That's where we currently set Um with respect to that Perhaps you know perhaps we should go Ahead and wrap it up here um we've Covered quite a bit and um and I think It's worthwhile to just sort of think About everything in this video not to Take it to the bank or anything like That but just to consider it in your List of potential outcomes especially Given the fact that we are continuing to Follow Um The analog from the.com crash with Respect to with respect to crypto and Then maybe maybe one last thing is when Comparing all this everything's somewhat Related right if you look at if you look At the S P 500 bear markets and look at The context of History And we look at this bear Market compared To sort of the extremes of Prior bear Markets you can see we're right at that Level where we would have gotten Rejected in Prior bear markets that Could lead us to new lows the average Bear market for the s p is about nine Months we already had that but the one That includes recessions is closer to a Year and a half and there's still plenty

Of evidence to to to think that we are In fact heading for a recession even Though it hasn't occurred yet I'm not of The I haven't been in the opinion uh for You know I know a lot of people said Recession in 2022 and they just keep Calling recession but again the Indicators suggest one is coming not Necessarily that we're in one or that We've been in one okay just because the Stock market goes down does not mean We're in a recession Okay we we go down I mean 2018 the stock Market went down crypto went down a lot Crypto went down more back then than it Has so far this cycle it still wasn't a Recession you look at the yield curve Right treasury yield spreads Historically when you get these spreads Uh the only way out is is via a Recession right that's the way out when You look at the treasury yield curve you Can see the inversion of the yield curve And when did it look similar to this Normally it looks like this Go back to the recession back in the Financial crisis right you saw the Inversion go back to the.com crash you Saw the inversion you see the inversion Now so again the the way the reason why The worst case scenario might play out Is nothing necessarily related to crypto But it could just be because of a Recession it could also be due to

Regulations there's a lot of reasons I Think that it could play out because of That we need to consider it I think We'll go ahead and wrap it up Make sure you subscribe if you're not Subscribed give the video a thumbs up Again we do have into the cryptiverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com we Actually do three premium videos per Week on one on the weekend one on Tuesdays and then an A A on Thursdays so Just give you an idea of some of the Stuff you get and uh and so on and so Forth so and that's for the um the Highest here but I think we'll wrap it Up there and I will see you guys next Time bye

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