Where Is The Crypto Bottom? (Worst Case Scenario)

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about the total cryptocurrency Market capitalization and discuss what Is the worst case scenario for a Potential bottom if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out into the cryptograph Into the cryptiverse.com we of course do Have several different tiers available Including a free one make sure you check It out link is in the description below Or the pinned comment let's go ahead and Jump in now this video series is Something that we've been carrying out For a little over a year now and while I Know the price action for crypto has Been quite positive recently I do want To at least follow this video series out Until either the path that we've Previously outlined is is deviated from Or we see it into its ultimate Conclusion in the same way that we saw It occur with the.com crash I I must Remind you that this is what I would Consider to be the worst case scenario It is not necessarily mean that it has To play out from a time-based Perspective Bitcoin and ethereum have Have experienced about you know a bear Market that is pretty typical in length And so we must be cognizant of the idea That the low could be behind us

But the purpose of this video is not to Spend too much time addressing whether The low is behind us but to address if It's not the low what would that Ultimately mean if you're not familiar With this video series we normally put Out a new video about every three months However in this scenario we actually put Out our most recent video on this series Only two weeks ago and the reason why I'm providing an update is because a lot Has happened between then and now and I Wanted to just simply provide an update So if we roll back the clock this video Series started back in February of 2022 When essentially we noticed that the Similarities between the.com crash and The cryptocurrency uh crash that we were Just starting to experience now the.com Crash back then was also given a Nickname during the Super Bowl What's called the dot combo in fact in The same manner that in 2022 crypto or The Super Bowl is called the crypto ball You know because we had a lot of Different cryptocurrency companies Providing advertisements for the Super Bowl and so because of these Similarities I thought it would be Worthwhile to say what if this is our DOT combo what if the investors that Came before us the the lessons that they Learned is there anything that we can Learn from it without having to

Necessarily experience it for ourselves So What we're going to do is we're gonna We're gonna talk a lot about that in This first video you can see we found This article and it essentially outlined How the total market cap of the tech Stocks back then which essentially you Know the NASDAQ of course it was just in This case it was you know the top 280 Tech stocks at the time reached a total Market cap of 2.948 trillion now the reason why that's Important is because we know that Cryptocurrency also reached around 3 Trillion at its peak in November So because of that we've seen a very Similar market cap reached despite these Two scenario these two events occurring Over 20 years apart and they overtook The Super Bowl so why not explore you Know further similarities between them We also followed this and this was again A year ago we followed this video series Up Um about nine months ago talking about Where would that ultimately put the Total market cap of crypto if we were to Follow what the NASDAQ did during The.com crash we continued our Discussion Um about five months ago and we went Through all the same things and we Provided a discussion about the Bitcoin

Dominance which you guys I know you guys Know I'm very fond of and I think it's Very useful too tool to navigate the Cryptiverse perhaps it makes me a Dinosaur unwilling to change with The Changing Times but I am somewhat Stubborn in my view on that and we also Covered this again three months ago we Were comparing the 40 rally the 50 rally And talking about potentially getting a Final rally up to the 50-week moving Average so we're going to provide an Update on that and then we again talked About this two weeks ago where we were Looking specifically at Bitcoin and Talking about getting that rally up to The 50-week moving average so now we've Covered you know the intro we've covered The prior videos in this series And now I just simply want to provide an Update okay so the NASDAQ if you if you Look back during the.com crash one of The things you'll notice is that it had A 77 correction From the all-time high before realizing A fairly impressive bounce to the tune Of about 60 percent In the same manner and I'm going to pull Up Bitcoin first before we talk more About the total market cap in the same Manner Bitcoin has also experienced a 77 Drawdown before getting a 60 move to the Upside So you have the NASDAQ with a 77 move to

The downside followed by a 60 rally and You have Bitcoin with a 77 move to the Downside followed by a 60 rally Furthermore Bitcoin has rallied up to Its 50-week moving average and right now We actually sit just above the 50-week Moving average In the same manner when the NASDAQ Rallied up it also came to the 50-week Moving average and you can see that the First move up to the 50-week SMA didn't Even quite make it there right it it Fell short after that because it there Are a lot of similarities here right After falling short of the 50 week we Then had a two-week correction okay so Fell short of the 50 week And then a two-week correction Bitcoin Has done essentially the same thing It fell short of the 50 week on its First attempt and then a two-week Correction and now a rally back into the 50-week moving average which is what Exact is what we saw back over here as Well and what you'll notice is during The.com crash we actually exceeded the 50-week moving average so this is There's a week here where we actually Went above it now there are slight Difference here you can see Bitcoin has Only taken one week to get back up to it Where is the NASDAQ took two but again The the NASDAQ did go above the 50-week SMA if we take sort of a measured move

Here all the way up to the top by about Two percent or so and and where do you Think Bitcoin currently sits about the 50 week right it's about a two percent Move right about the 50-week moving Average so again there do remain Similarities between what the NASDAQ Experienced All the way back then And what crypto is experiencing today in This case you know specifically Bitcoin Okay another thing that is interesting To look at here is we have of course the Weekly RSI so I think that might be Useful to talk about because one of the Things that you know a lot of people Have looked at with Bitcoin and also the Total market cap as well let me Um fix this so it's a little bit easier To identify what's going on here You can see the NASDAQ was also more or Less putting in Um You know ultimately you could say the NASDAQ was was sort of putting in these Lower highs on the weekly RSI and then It finally broke out into this 60 rally To the 50-week moving average right and Ultimately what formed on the weekly RSI Was in fact a double top Okay double top If you look at Bitcoin and we we look at The same things we're just going to look At the relative strength index one of

The things you'll notice and let me Clean this up a little bit so it's the Same thing that we looked at on the Other one It's a very similar type of move right Where you see these lower highs on the Weekly RSI you finally get the breakout Right you finally get the Breakout Also note I mean it's very similar right Like look at this move here look at this Low here the weekly RSI was lower so Then we ended up getting a low we got a Higher low on the weekly RSI but a lower Low on price So a lower low on price A higher low on the weekly RSI Followed by a sixty percent move to the Upside which rallied to the 50-week Moving average in the same way the NASDAQ did now the weekly RSI ended up Putting in a double top the first top Did not reach the 50-week SMA the second Top went just above it but in in both Scenarios the weekly RSI was essentially The same Bitcoin You can see that right now the weekly RSI has broken a little bit higher but Of course the leak just started right we We don't know yet how this week's going To end if this week ends with a just a Very flat rejection off the 50-week SMA Then this too could end up being a Double top

If this continues to rally on through Like it did in 2019 then arguably we Have deviated from the.com Crash I think It's I think this is a very important Week and it's one of the reasons why I Wanted to provide an update this week Because you know as as you guys know I Only I provided an update only two weeks Ago so why why provide it again I think We're getting into crunch time here and And we need to follow this through to The end until it either deviates or we See the ultimate conclusion in the same Way that the.com crash ended up So a lot of similarities between these Moves when you compare the NASDAQ and You compare the total cryptocurrency Market cap something else to take or When you compare Bitcoin something to Take a look at though is to actually Pull this up for the total market cap Because the total market cap Is is slightly different right it's Slightly different Remember when we're looking at the NASDAQ we're comparing you know an Indus In an index of a lot of different stocks So why not make some of the comparisons To the total market cap when you look at It like this one of the things you'll Notice is that it's actually more Similar because We had a rally up to the 50 week Right total failed to come all the way

To the 50 week then a two-week Correction Just like the NASDAQ a two-week Correction two green candles to the 50 Week Two green candles to the 50 week and Then it was the next candle so that Would basically correspond to next week Not this week it would correspond to Next week seeing a ultimate rejection Off of the 50-week moving average and Then a and then it's just a continuation Back to the downside And then if you look at the weekly RSI On the total market cap you'll see Something very similar right you'll see This higher low on weekly RSI But on the price we were actually Getting a lower low right which is a Sign of Divergent you know Divergence And is one of the reasons arguably that We've seen this really great rally by Bitcoin is because you know why not I Mean we've had a pretty typical bear Market for Bitcoin lasted about a year Why not you know and if you actually go Back and watch some of these prior Videos that we did on on where is the Crypto bottom and we discussed this Potential 60 rally one of the things I Said was if you watch that video and and The ones that came before it I said you Know imagine how difficult it will be if We do get a 60 rally

I'd imagine how difficult it would be Because it looked like it was lining up Towards a you know the end of the year Which is typically when Bitcoin bottoms Either the end of the year or early the Following year so what happens if Everyone decides to front run it before It's really run its course and you get a 60 rally so that was another thing we Talked about If you look at the NASDAQ in the.com Crash we had three primary rallies We had If we Zoom all the way back we first Right we first so so there is there's Three separate rallies that are at least Notable of course there's more than Three rallies but I would argue that There's three that are fairly notable This first one Was about a 40 rally The second one About a 50 rally The third one On total it was about a 57 rally It depends on where you you know if you Go to the wick or if you just go to the Candle but about a 56 Rally or so Something like that so close to 60 Percent so you essentially have a 40 Rally uh 50 rally and a 60 rally None of those Mark the bottom right none Of them and the last one got rejected Off of the 50-week moving average which

Is coincidentally where the total market Cap finds itself right now Right at the 50-week SMA now the 50-week Moving average is coming in at about 1.101 trillion we're sitting at 1.085 Trillion Something to keep in mind I might say Well Has crypto experienced the same thing 40 Move and a 50 move Yes it has very similar move you guys Remember the rally back from January to March guess what about a 45 move Same thing as we saw in the.com Crash And then if you look over here in June Of 2022 we had our 50 rally so we had Our 40 rally our 50 rally now this one Is not quite 60 percent It's actually a it's actually right Around 50 now I don't know how important That is if it needs to go up another you Know if it needs to go all the way up to That 55 I think I think the NASDAQ I I've said 60 but it's you know it's Close to about 56 it rallied to the 50 Week almost to 60 rally in this case the Rally from all the way down here is only About a 50 51 Rally or so uh to get you There but it gets you to the 50-week Moving average so we've seen very Similar moves not only you know in The.com Crash and compared to to what We've experienced so far within crypto Always something important to keep in

Mind now the other thing I wanted to Mention is and and this is Dubious at best okay and I mean this is Not something you should take to the Bank out of everything I'm going to talk About this in this video uh this is Probably the thing that would you know Carry the least amount of weight because It's always easy to manipulate things to Tell the story that you want to tell but If you look at this as a line chart Right look at this as a line chart for a Second what I want to do is if you go Over to the Wall Street cheats The Wall Street cheat sheet and we overlay this On the total market cap I want you to Take a look at this One of the things you'll notice is that When this so When this this rally here you could Argue that this was capitulation so this Was down to our 17.5 then we had a rally Up to around 25k on bitcoin total market Cap was obviously different so we put in A low we put in a high and then we put In a lower low so you could argue that With Bitcoin this would correspond to 15.4 K and then we rallied on up Came back down a little bit and then Went back up Doesn't that look very doesn't that look Very similar to Um you know potentially this move right Where you you you rally on up to that

50-week moving average but it's slightly Lower Than this one right it's it's it's just Slightly lower like it hasn't actually Taken out the August High one could Argue that if we do take out the August High then we've deviated and and it's Not necessarily the best comparison Anymore Um to this you know to this chart right But again Imagine this is your 17.5 K Bitcoin or You know the total market cap over here When it hit 843 billion and then rallied On up to 1.14 trillion and then put in a New low at around 755 billion so you're Looking at a lower low But technically we haven't actually put In a higher high here right like we're Still below this level and if we follow This it would basically mean just Hanging around these levels for a little Bit getting everyone super excited right Sucking in a lot more money and then Slowly trending back down To then get into the depression phase Now if you look at this I mean you can you can essentially just Overlay it right and I mean it's it's Hard to get it exact Um but you get the idea I mean you Should be able to get the idea here of Of um and it's you know it depends on How you want to draw it but you can

Imagine you know how lining this thing Up in a way that sort of fits what is What has previously occurred right so if You line it up like this Very similar very similar type of move And then I guess the only question is is You know is it going to just then slowly Bleed all the way back down to these you Know sort of these lower levels so the Question we have to constantly ask Ourselves right Now I want to talk about Something else you know because one of The things we've mentioned before is you Know give us a number right like what is The worst case scenario well if it Follows the NASDAQ you know we've Covered the similarities Yes we had a 77 correction right by the Way we talked about how Bitcoin had a 77 Correction before its rally well guess What total Had about a 76 correction right before Before its rally so really close really Similar do note that it's including Stable coins Um so you have to constantly think about That But while we had our low here at 77 down The final low Was 83 percent down You know About 83 somewhere between 83 and 84

Percent So Where would that put crypto if it were To go down 83 percent Put it around 500 billion if it's closer To 84 percent it would put it at like You know 480 billion so that's why if You follow this video series I've Consistently said I believe Um that the worst case scenario for the Total market cap is somewhere between Four to five hundred billion which would Essentially represent another 50 move to The downside from these levels uh which Is kind of crazy to think about I don't Really think it's it's a common scenario That a lot of people are are even Considering uh but it would be Essentially if we repeated.com crash But only you know about 20 years later Another thing to look at and I know I'm Cherry picking you know I I fully Recognize that this is just a a case of Of cherry picking all the worst possible Things and looking at it with some um You know with a a certain bias and and That's why I will remind you there's Always a chance the Bottom's done right From a time-based perspective you could Argue that it is Um but even if it is you're still likely Looking at at a bit of a chop for a While another thing to consider too by The way is at least with um with Bitcoin

You know look at 2015. We got rejected By the 50 week but it didn't actually Really lead to new low so let's suppose We do get rejected by the 50 week it Doesn't necessarily have to lead to a New low Um as you as you see what 2015 did but Just something to think about Now I want to go back to Total because This is another way that I was looking At this earlier It's the time base Component like when could something like This occur right how long would it take To occur Um you know Etc Well if you look at the NASDAQ and I did This exercise in the last video but I'll Do it again in case you missed it if you Take the time here from this major Peak To the to the rally the 77 move the Downside it took about 77 weeks or so Right I mean you know it might it might Be off a week or so but somewhere around 77 weeks and then the time to go from This low here to the actual low was About 55 weeks Right so you have 77 Over 55. Equals You go to Total you say well let's take The ratio right let's take the ratio and

And get an idea of when it could Actually occur and you take the top the Top here and you go out a certain amount Of time 54 weeks So you set this equal To 54. so this 54 is equivalent to the 77 and then 55 and then X so 77 over 55 Equals 54 over X so if you do that 77 Over 55 equals 54 over X And you solve for x About 38 weeks somewhere between 38 and 39 weeks now where would that put Us in terms of time What's 38 weeks from the low Put it in August about mid-august if It's 39 weeks it would put it you know The last week of August or maybe maybe The third week of August or something Like that But that's essentially what you're Looking at is August of 2023 is where That would ultimately come to play out August 2023. now remember that number Remember that that uh that month Another way to look at the last cycle Is to draw a line right we all love Drawing lines they uh help us tell the Narratives that we want to tell but what You'll notice is that There's A very similar pattern Very similar pattern so this was last Cycle What you notice is we had a rejection

And second rejection And the third rejection Note The third rejection was at the 50 week Right now there's a difference here 50 Week over here was going up 50 week over here is going down But with the NASDAQ the 50 week is going Down and it still got rejected and with Bitcoin in 2015 the 50 week You know we got rejected off the 50 week As well even though it was mid 2015 and A year and a half after the bear Market Had started So you'll see The fourth rejection sent us lower So then look at that compared to this Okay It's a very a very similar structure Here right I mean you can even take it out over Here if you want but um And you if you take this too it's sort Of like conclusion Let me just um Connect it over here I don't really care Too much about um about this one I don't Know why I drew it from there but this Is this is essentially where we are Right and so if you draw it like this Right if you connect this Wick to these Wicks One Two

And three So here we are at the 50 week If it's going to follow this pattern it Would mean A rejection back down Followed by a slow move back up And then Final capitulation now look at where This occurs July This occurred in November but the low Was in December so imagine this occurs In July and then the final low is in August Now look at this if you take a price Move from the top To this Level here the final rejection before The plum the plummet into the the final The final low was about a 73 move to the Downside From here to that would also be about a 73 move to the downside So Um It's something to it's something to Consider right Um now the other thing I wanted to Mention if you look at at the total Market cap of crypto and and we look at Our fair value logger in the congression Trend line you can see that we still Haven't hit it and one of the Interesting things is the last couple of

Cycles the undervaluation has ultimately Come down to being about 65 undervalued We haven't actually gone down that far Yet right you can see where we hit was Not that far uh it's not far off from Off from from that level but if you sort Of just draw a line across the page you Can see we haven't hit that deep Valuation territory just yet like we had In say 2020 before the Bull Run began And then like we were adding you know 2015 and 2016 before the the real Bull Run began and we came up to much higher Evaluations So that's something to consider Another thing to consider is the total Indicator risk so this includes price Metrics on chain metrics and social Metrics for the price metrics that Includes bitcoin's risk the market cap Risk log in the congression the market Cap aggression uh the corridor the fear And greed index the on-chain stuff Includes the mvrv z-sc score the pure Multiple the mbrv score the in the the Mctc we also have the market cap Thermocoup so this is the minor caps Therma cap the market Capital Transaction fees and the terminal price And then the social social risk levels Include YouTube Subs views analysts on Twitter exchanges on Twitter and layer Ones on Twitter so followers to those People on Twitter

This is what the risk level looks like Right so we haven't gone down into that Final area now If if we roll back the clock In June and July you know a lot of People said it was the bottom you know That June was the bottom and and you Know they had they had their reasons for It and they could have been right but They weren't you know and we talked About how we likely we're going to see That final capitulation by the end of The year now what's interesting is the Capitulation was was somewhat tempered In in what we saw back in 2018. and we Only went slightly lower now I would be Remiss if I didn't just point this out To the Bulls okay because it's not all Doom and gloom if you turn off the Social risk We already went to some pretty low Levels on risk we did not go as low as We went during the prior three Cycles But still pretty good value and you know If you if you bought Bitcoin at 15 16 17 18K even if we do eventually go lower It's probably not that far from the Bottom right so long term I think you'll Be fine even if the worst case scenario Does play out but This is something to keep in mind one Thing I I constantly think about is that That's you know somewhat interesting is Back in 2018 you know there weren't

Really a whole lot of people calling the Bottom now it seems like The entirety of crypto Twitter and Crypto YouTube have just unilaterally Declared the bottom is in and if you Don't agree with them Um then you know you're you're just sort Of labeled a Perma bear or something Um but I would also point out that you Know a lot of people got excited back in The summer as well and then we know what Happened in August okay we ended up just Coming back down and putting in a new Low and Um and then of course everyone who Called the bottom back in June were Quick to call the bottom again in November uh because they they don't want It to be too much lower right they Already called the bottom one so Hopefully it's the next one the next low Is the bottom and one of the things I Said uh you know back in the summer was That I did not think Gene was the bottom I said I think the next low could be Meaning the one in November or of course I I thought back then I thought it would Take until December to get it not November Um or the low after that and then of Course it brings us into the question of Well what is the narrative for you know For another low right what is really the Narrative because haven't all the

Narratives been spent at this point we Let's just think about this stuff for a Second We had Um Celsius Luna in the UST Fiasco we had Block Phi we had FTX Voyager and and What's going on with um you know with Genesis So much I mean look crypto the the People that are living in the Cryptiverse I mean you know you felt the Pain over the last year and I think the Contagion narrative has run its course Right I don't think that the contagion Narrative is what would send us to new Lows I I just don't I mean I think it's Been fully priced in Um you could argue that if another major Exchange went down that could lead to a New low but I don't even know how likely That is at this point I mean it could Happen but the market has been Relatively resilient to these things and You know despite the fact that FTX Collapsed We didn't really go that much lower you Know I mean from 17.5 to 15 4 in terms Of the prior lows It's not much right it's not a whole lot So then you know what is the narrative Hey what is the narrative well I can Think of two I can think of two the First one is is a is is still a crypto Specific narrative

Um the second one is not and um and Arguably the second one is more Important than the first one that I'm Going to talk about now go ahead and Everyone can go ahead and collectively Roll your eyes because we will briefly Touch on Um the dominance of Bitcoin okay I I I I I think this is a very important Component to understand where we are Remember It was only a few months ago that I saw The comments on my on the Bitcoin Dominance videos I was making where Everyone was calling for this to break Down 20 30 dominance and it's defied the The Bitcoin dominance Pairs and it Continues to slowly go higher despite Everyone thinking that this time is Different and that the altcoin Market's Going to take over everything despite All the VC money despite all the nfts Bitcoin dominance couldn't even go below Where it was in 2018. so I don't I don't Really think that this time is different Uh really carries much weight with when Despite all the VC money despite all the Money printing despite all that The dominant still couldn't go lower Right from where it was in 2018. We put out a video by the way back in on August saying that September could be The turning point And you know to just

Go back to the receipts just because It's important to to sort of remind Ourselves where we were wrong on things I was not expecting the straw down in The Dominus I mean I really wasn't I I Thought that this was the move that was Taking us up so let's not forget that And it's I I think it's important as an Investor to remind ourselves well what Have we gotten wrong and and this was When we got wrong I mean well not we Right I mean I think a lot of people Have been in the in the Bitcoin Dominance going lower camp and they were Quite pleased to see this move they Don't say but I was not I mean I really Thought the dominance was going to keep Breaking out here and it didn't and There's always a chance that I'll be Wrong again and if I am I'll hold my Hand up high and say yep I got it wrong Again on the Bitcoin dominance but I look at this and and I remind myself That on this dominance pump here it Started with a Bitcoin pump So look at look at the price of Bitcoin Here So when the dominance went on this surge This surge here if you line it up it Started with a Bitcoin pump to the 50-week moving average and it continued Going up on a Bitcoin dump back down to The lower part of the range right So it started with a pump and it ended

With a dump And then After the dump the Bitcoin dominance Still continue to sort of slowly go Higher And then it just went sort of sideways With a slightly bearish bias Until the 2019 bull market you know the Brief one that we had So the crypto Narrative to support Lower valuations not necessarily in Bitcoin but in the in in the altcoin Market is the dominance is still so low And I think to myself Have we seen enough pain in the altcoin Market you know with with everything That's going on in the macroverse has There really been enough pain in the Altcoin market when everyone's just Quick to throw their money back into the Altcoin casino [Music] Um I don't know you know there's there's A big part of me that thinks the altcoin Market still needs some more pain you Know I really do and a lot of these all Coins on their Bitcoin pairs they've Dropped a lot and you know one of the Things I've said before is just because An all coins dropped 80 doesn't mean it Can't drop 80 again and we've seen we've Seen some hot coins do that already But you could still argue that the space

Still needs to be cleansed of some of The of some of the garbage out there and What better way to do it than for the Bitcoin dominance to go up On a Bitcoin pump it's this pump that Shakes all coins off of their Bitcoin Support levels so that when Bitcoin Dumps there's nowhere for these all Coins to hide A great point a great a great way to Look at this is to take a look at the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation I mean look where it is it's been riding This trend line for a long time and we Find ourselves at a very Precarious point I mean yes we have the Shanghai hard Fort coming up here and I Just a few weeks and so maybe maybe Ethereum is going to kick the can down The road but I think you're ultimately Going to see this break to the downside And when it does break to the downside I Think you're going to see the Bitcoin Dominance go up quite a bit take a look Here So take a look at the Bitcoin dominance And then overlay it With the ethereum dominance same price Or the same same scale What do you notice Back in 2018 This pump By Bitcoin dominance corresponded with This dump by ethereum dominance

Where did the dominance dump for Ethereum Started at around 20 21 percent Draw the line across Where is it now Same level right I mean you know it came Up to that 20 to 21 just like it did Here We're sort of in I think we're in this Range right where it sort of just came Down we're turning sideways for a bit so I think this is where we are so If ethereum if the ethereum dominance Dumps the Bitcoin dominance should go up Another way to visualize this is the is The I call it we can call it the Blue Chip dominance so Bitcoin and ethereum I Actually consider ethereum and blue chip I'm not macro embarrassed on ethereum I Think that it's uh going to do quite Well next cycle If you look at the Blue Chip dominance It still went up even though the even Though the ethereum dominance went down And in you know late mid to late 2022 The the Bitcoin and ethereum dominance Still went up so what that tells you is That the Bitcoin dominance went higher Quicker than the ethereum dominance went Down so the Bitcoin dominance went up Quicker than the ethereum Dominus went Down So I think we're about to see this Breakout here on the Blue Chip dominance

To sort of much higher levels You know take a look at some of these Some of these all coins right like eight Is Bitcoin valuation look at this You know I mean yes you can get a Breakout doesn't necessarily mean a Thing You know I mean you can still come back Down I mean this was Q3 of 2019 this Would be Q3 of 2020. what's interesting About that Q3 huh August right August September uh July August September that Would get you down to those same same Valuations you know look at at Solana's Bitcoin valuation everyone gets excited Every time it pumps you know Um What do I see I see every time we put in a new low That low acts as resistance on the next Pump right and then this low has been Resistance here And you know it'll probably roll over And and put a new low eventually And you can look at a lot of different All coins in it it's basically the same Story on most of them there are a few That have outperformed and I'm not Trying to take any anything away from That you know and look at uh look at the BNB Bitcoin valuation It's been moving down and if this Continues to move down This only has one way to go right and

It's up So and again if you exclude staple coins The Dominus has been moving higher since May of 2021 right despite everyone Calling for it to go lower Altcoin still slowly bleed back to Bitcoin look at a moving average of it Right take a 30 day SMA it's just Building out a big base and it's likely Going to go back up to the upside so Well I think that's the that's the Crypto narrative that would support Further further pain one thing to Consider too is that Bitcoin if the Bottom is not in for total market cap Bitcoin's low might not be that much Lower than it already is right like Maybe it just goes down to 12 or 13k or 14k and and it calls it quits there but Maybe it's the ethereum Valuations that go down maybe it's the Altcoin market that goes down Take a look at ethereum just on its own Actually don't take a look at ethereum On its own take a look at the entire Altcoin Market Including ethereum I don't really Consider ethanol but look at this Right so it's like a descending triangle Right so you had a Peak Peak Remains to be seen right and then a low A low and then a lower low so you could Argue that ethereum is is you know still

In this range here and if it comes back Down to these levels and then you know Continue to sort of pop up here and then Makes it down to the end that puts it in The summer right and then if it breaks Down that gets you into that same that Same time frame of like you know July August Um coming into to sort of that lower Part of the range you could also see the Same thing on or something slightly Different on total three So if you look at total three you'll see A high a lower high a lower high Potentially a lower high Right so if this if we if we continue to Rally just a bit here to get up to the 50 week and then slowly come back down You could see it it fall down here and Then just and break back out to the Upside right like it could be a fake out Look at look at over here look at total Three back in 2018. it eventually did so We had a high a lower high a lower high Lower high and then we moved below the Trend line it was a fake out and then we Came back up right so maybe it would do Something like that It's at least something to consider Right I mean I'm not saying it has to Happen but it's at least something that We need to think about So We've talked a lot about crypto but

What's the narrative I mean you know What if it's what if what if the Dominance doesn't have to go up and what If I'm wrong about that Um What if I'm just a dinosaur you know uh Living in the past and thinking that the Dominance has to go higher when maybe it Doesn't I I still do think it will Um that's my base case I think the Dominance is poised to go much higher Than it is today and I I think we'll Easily see a hit 50 this year and and Likely continue much higher next year Um but what if what if it doesn't right Is there any other narrative I think There is right I mean it's it's what Happens if we go into a recession it's Nothing anything crypto's doing but it's Courtesy of the Federal Reserve and I Think the narrative is that you have two Things right we've been in this sort of Transitory period for the last couple of Months that transitory period could Continue on for a little while But one thing to consider is that The Fad is continuing to raise rates and we Know that historically recessions occur When the FED gets too hawkish and and They they constrict they tighten Financial conditions for too long And it seems like that's what they're Going to do here and the reason under Most circumstances they would not be

Still tightening but the reason they are Is because of inflation so my argument Is that and I've said this for a long Time I said this from you know most of 2022 is you know there's not really a Whole lot of evidence to suggest we're In a recession right now we still have Positive GDP growth I know we had two Consecutive quarters back in 2022 but we still have really low levels Of unemployment Um you know if you go take a look at at The unemployment rate We just put in a new secular low For this business cycle but you can also Note that it's normally At a very low level just before it it Rockets back up to the upside So arguably we're just waiting on that To happen Now You have to think well what are you know There's I think there's two narratives Here why why we've been in this Transitory period where where risk Assets have done well and I've said this Many times on the macro videos you have Inflation coming down so we have Disinflation but you also have The economy still doing well right we're Still putting in new highs in GDP the Unemployment rate's low so the market is Ignored it all So my my point is that risk assets can

Rally until one of two things Either inflation re-accelerates or the Economy deteriorates in a material way Through something like the unemployment Rate You can already see that you know some Things like um continued claims So if you look at continued claims they I believe have been trending higher Um if it actually say yeah you can see Continued claims are starting to move Higher and if you look at at say like The um the smooth recession Probabilities chart You can see that it's currently a five Percent it's not very high but it's the Highest if you exclude 2020 this is the Highest it's been since the financial Crisis You know so pretty this is a pretty Substantial move and this is actually Made up of four different things it's Obtained from a dynamic Factor Markov Switching model Um looking at non-farm payroll Employment the index of industrial Production real personal income Including excluding transfer payments And real manufacturing and trade sales So it's made up of these four different Things and it and it shows you what the Recession probability is so I think We're not really in a recession right Now but it doesn't mean that one's not

Coming and one of the reasons that it Could come is If the Fed remains too Hawkish for too long if you look at at Um Uh the CME Group web you know the Website you can see that they're Expecting 25 basis points in March And then another 25 in May and then Another 25 in June and then in July Holding at five and a half and then September five and a half November five and a half and then December Huh Market suspecting a cut the feds Said they're not cutting why does the Market think they're going to cut well Probably because the market foresees a Recession or something because Wilds With a cut they'd have to break Something they haven't broken anything Yet so why would they cut rates because It's going to take longer than December For inflation to come back down if we Don't have a recession now if we have a Recession inflation could come down Quite quickly and history shows us that Recessions are actually quite effective In getting inflation to come down in a Material way very very quickly so you Could argue that that these markets are Are speculating that yeah the fed's Probably going to push things too far Now why would they push things too far Well one thing to consider

Is last month we actually had a somewhat Hot CPI print that came in above Consensus but technically speaking it's Still disinflation it's just that it's Not going down as quickly one way to Visualize this is to go over to Inflation year over year And if you look at this right it was Moving down quite quickly and then it Kind of leveled off a little bit I mean It it still technically went down but if You look at the derivative the monthly Change right it was it was going down Very quickly and then it came all the Way back up so it's still below zero so It's still going down but what if this Is a a warning sign that that inflation Is starting to re-accelerate now I will Be honest if if inflation is Re-accelerating I think it'll be Somewhat short-lived like maybe it could Last a few months but that's probably Enough to get the Federal Reserve to to Over tighten to the point where they Would send us into a recession another Way to think about this is something Like copper copper historically leads CPI so if you look at you know the Inflation data if you look here copper You know made a very strong move to the Upside and it was after copper peaked That then CPI peaked here copper Bottomed before c API bottomed and then Here copper topped before CPI topped but

If you ignore this Wick or even if you Don't right copper bottomed back over Here and has been moving higher so you Know this is potentially a warning sign That inflation this data point is not Just a fluke and that it might actually Move back up to the upside now I'm not Calling for new highs on year of year Inflation but even just being Even If The Fed gets scared that inflation is Starting to in inflation expectations Are becoming entrenched and people are Expecting inflation to just continue on At high levels then you know you could See the FED being forced to be more Hawkish than than people have expected And if you look at things like the Two-year treasury one thing you'll Notice is that the S P 500 Um So actually let me Add The S P 500 here So one of the things you'll notice is That as the two-year treasury has been Going up the you know the stock market Generally has gone down but it was During say like this consolidation phase Right here on the two-year treasury that The S P 500 went up And it was during this period here where The S P 500 went up right on this Consolidation phase when when the when The two-year treasury yields broke out

The market went down the s p went down Right so during this breakout over here The market was going down If you zoom in You can see that the two-year treasury Is breaking out again so this is Potentially a warning sign to the S P 500 that hey If if treasury yields if these if these Treasure yields are starting to break Out again then you know the s p might Might need another leg down Okay So that's something you have to consider Now another thing to look at is is to Actually go look at at the bear markets For the S P 500 because we talked about The.com Crash let's go take a look at it In a little bit more detail and compare It to the current S P 500 bear Market if The s p has not bottomed yet then it's Hard to imagine the s p you know having A crash and crypto not at least seeing Some downside If you look at the 2022 to 23 the 2022 Bear Market potentially the 2022 to 2023 Bear Market only know if we actually put In a new low and you compare it to The.com crash I mean this was essentially so so we're At day In this bear Market we're essentially at Day 410. In the.com Crash the market rolled over

It at day 422 so 12 days from now so Early March that's when the s p had its Next leg lower into the recession now we Had another leg lower later on as well But that was probably more so Um you know related to what happened in In 2001 and some of that stuff but the Recession was actually here Um and so that is is sort of the risk That we run is you know what if the s p Rolls back over just like a deer did A.com crash and and we see another low There and that could take you know that Could ultimately take Um you know crypto lower as well and Then of course the other thing to look At is the dollar right the dollar is Moving higher And what's interesting about that is if You go look at the 1980s Which is interestingly similar to today Because we were also coming out of a Period of high inflation and if you just Um Draw a line across Here So you can see The dollar peaked at the same level Right Just below 115. okay then had a pullback To a very similar level we actually went Just a bit lower this time but then the Dollar actually rallied on up and I Don't really think the dollar is going

To Rally up to these levels and also Note that it was during this move here That the s p went down but once the Dollar broke out the s p actually Started going back up again so Um You might might consider that as well Some of these some of these Trends Actually break during periods of high Inflation some of the trends that you You're maybe used to and have always Held up uh for every as long as we've Known you can see that during this rally Here By the dollar you could so the so the s P had a rally and then the dollar Rallied itself and during that dollar Rally to the breakout the s p went down But then after the dollar broke out Maybe you know a few weeks after the Dollar broke out then the s p went up Too right so There you have it right I mean that's a Lot of stuff to digest but there's you Know there are similarities between Coming out of this period of high Inflation and this one is this one over Here as well because you could argue That you know Powell has been clear that He does not want to make the mistakes That they made in the 1970s and I agree You know I mean As hard as it is to see you know to see A recession

Um what's worse is if you spend a decade With high inflation now think about how How expensive everything is right now And because of inflation and think about When you go to the grocery store how it Takes so much more money to just get What you would normally get now imagine That goes on for another like eight Years that's not something we want to See right so it would be better to just Get inflation back under control like Volk like volcker did back in the early 1980s Um So that we can actually go back into a Period of of economic expansion so if The dollar continues to Rally here then I think you're going to see another leg Lower in Risk Assets in general now the Time frame on this of course Um you know it could be could still be a Couple months away for you know for for Some of the stuff to play out but You know there's there's the idea of you Know may sell a man go away right this Summer is not usually a good time Um March I believe for crypto is not Historically been the best I think it's Not as bad as September but historically March is not the best for crypto so Let's not take my word for it let's Actually go take a look So these are we're just looking at Monthly returns for for Bitcoin so yeah

You can see the last two marches have Actually been green but typically it's You know it we have had our fair share Of red months not as bad as September Um but March is is not always the best Month but you know just something Something to consider Um as we as we continue to navigate this So listen guys I mean this has been a Lot Um and I know that it might sound fairly Convincing but I I do want to say uh Just for the Bulls in the you know Watching that I have cherry-picked a lot Of stuff like I really have I've Cherry Picked a ton of stuff and you know for Every for every indicator that that you Know points to this worst case scenario You could probably find one that doesn't Okay there's plenty of indicators that Um you know would suggest that that you Know the worst is behind us if you look At the bottoming indicators we have over Here For instance Um you know you could you could look at Things like um Ash ribbons and and that's given a Signal the Counterpoint to that though Is it also gave a signal back over here In August and it didn't mean a thing Because we ended up putting in another Low uh if you go look at uh the terminal Price you can see that we actually did

Come all the way down here to to the um To the balance price the Counterpoint to That though is that historically bear Markets are over on daily closes below The balance price not just coming back Down to it if you look at 2011 2015 and 2018 all of them had daily closes below The bounce price and while we came very Close we didn't actually hit it There's also you know things like the Peel multiple which came down to Relatively low levels uh the Counterpoint to that of course is that Well normally it goes down to around 0.3 And we went down to around you know just Over 0.3 so is it close enough maybe Um I mean this is a pretty strong move Here it's back up to 1.06 so you know I Think a reasonable person would look at This and say well it's probably close Enough and and if it's not the bottom Maybe it maybe Bitcoin goes down a few Thousand dollars more from 15K but it's Likely going to be relatively close to The bottom right So that's something you have to consider And then the other thing to consider too By the way with specifically Bitcoin is Is the the weekly death cross okay Um one thing I've mentioned before is These golden crosses and death crosses Which you normally see is the opposite In the short term and then a Continuation of the trend right so in

The short term we've had we got the Golden cross we had a dump and then we Get a continuation of the trend right Where we put in new highs so that's the Golden Cross so that has played out Right we had we were going higher we had The going across we had our almost 10 Percent down put which we normally do And then we have the continuation of the Trend but we also on the weekly time Frame have a death cross now what Normally happens then right you do the Opposite Of of Um of normal right so it's rallied in The death cross you have a pump after The death cross but the overall trend Has been down so perhaps it's just you Get that short-term pump But the overall trend remains intact So that's something to consider as well And um and you know I could go on and on I mean you look at the supply and profit And loss look at the 30-day SMA Historically bottoms occurred after the 30-day estimate of this plan profit and Loss crossed they they did briefly cross But Um that actually occurred after this 15.4 K normally they cross and then the Bottom comes in every single prior low Right they cross and then the bottom Comes and then over here right they Crossed and then the bottom comes but in

This case They crossed after so it either means This time is different or it just means It hasn't happened yet right so Something to consider as well But again let me know as I said before There's plenty plenty of other Indicators you could look at I mean one Of my favorite ones is to look at the Running Roi so here's the one your Roi Normally the bottoms are on point two or So and it didn't go quite as low as we Have in the past but it did go pretty Low down to 0.234 I'm not really sure if we're going To go lower than that in terms of the One you're Roi doesn't mean the price Can't go lower but you know here it is Like if you put a future projection out Of say like 13k by March 28th or Something you know around the time Bitcoin was going in that rally last Year I mean it would get the the one Your Roi pack down But it still wouldn't be a new low I Mean you'd have to maybe go down to like 12K Or Maybe eleven five You'd have to get down pretty low here Uh within a very short period of time to See the to see the one-year Roi actually Go put a new low So all things to consider

Um when when navigating uh these markets And hopefully hopefully you can at least Understand that I'm not trying to push a Certain narrative I just want people to Understand that there is a downside risk And just because everyone's calling for A new Bull Run doesn't mean that there Isn't still more downside risk and That's the important thing I think you Have to remember and Um yeah I wish everyone luck if if we Deviate from the worst case scenario Then there'll probably be no reason to Continue the series But if we don't deviate and we Ultimately see a rejection around these Levels even if we Wick above it it Doesn't really mean anything if if we End up coming back down But I think we have to consider you know Until it deviates until we see the Deviation it's worthwhile to at least Consider Comparing the crypto crash to the.com Crash more than 20 years ago thank you Guys for tuning in make sure you Subscribe to the channel if you're not Subscribed give the video a thumbs up Again we do have into the cryptographers Premium at into the cryptiverse.com free Tier as well so you can check that out We just sent out a Weekly Newsletter Um and um I think that'll wrap it up Thank you guys for tuning in see you

Next time bye


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