When Will These Cryptos PUMP?! Alt Season Update!

Are your crypto bags Underwater you bought altcoins in the Previous bull market and are probably Wondering when will they Recover or perhaps will they ever Recover well that depends on a number of Factors and in this video I'm going to Tell you exactly what they are so stay Tuned the singular most important factor That is weighed down your bags is the Fact that we are nowhere close to any Sort of coin season I mean here's a fun Fact since the fall of FTX there have Only been eight coins that have broken Through their previous all-time highs Against Bitcoin you can see them right Over here pretty bleak indeed in fact if We were to take a look at the entire Altcoin Market as measured by the Inverse of Bitcoin dominance it's Nowhere near the levels that we have Seen in previous Cycles over the past 6 Months we have been between 51% and 56% In BTC dominance by comparison in the 2017 to 2018 cycle we went from 86% to 38% and in the 2020 to 2021 rally we Went from 70% down to 38% however it's not just prices that we Can point to but the broader lack of Retail inflows coming into the market For example in the peak of the previous Bull market coinbase had retail trading Volumes of $1 177 billion

In Q4 of 2021 however in q1 of this year they Only had 56 billion do so that's 68% Down and speaking of coinbase its App Store ranking is also way lower than it Used to be in previous Cycles in the 2021 cycle the coinbase app was the Number one most downloaded app in May And October of that year we are nowhere Close to those levels right now we can Also look at Social sentiment to get a g You can get a sense of it on Twitter for Example about a month ago the chaps over At lunar Crush looked at the number of Mentions that we had seen for numerous Different cryptocurrencies they came in Short spurts and bursts around key Events but they were definitely not Sustained similarly as content creators We have noticed that the views and Subscriber growth that we have seen in This cycle are nowhere close to those Seen in previous Cycles our friend Mr Benjamin Cowan actually tracks this data And you can see over here that those Views are they way way down not only That but videos we created which were Targeted at newcomers have not performed Nearly as well in this cycle as they Have in previous years the only YouTube Content that does well nowadays is Obviously those just targeted at crypto Natives oh and check out the search Trends over here on Google nothing

Compared to the previous Cycles it's Even crazier when you consider that this Year we have went through not only a Bitcoin all-time high but the Bitcoin Haring and no I hate to break it to you But the the mcoin frenzy you're seeing On Twitter right now that's definitely Not considered an altcoin season it's Basically akin to people pushing around Penny stocks when the rest of the stock Market is in a lull it's peanuts in Comparison to what the market really Needs heck there is even a chart called The altcoin season index which you can View on this website over here as you Can see far from an altcoin year so it's Pretty clear that we aren't even close To an altcoin summer season in fact it's Not even spring yet but this then begs An important question why well there are A number of factors at play here firstly There is the fact that the economic Climate now is far from where it was in Previous altcoin Seasons rates are still Near record highs and the cost of living Crisis it's real people are struggling To make ends meet and these conditions Do not lend themselves well to throwing Cash into speculative asset classes it's Also pretty clear that the ugly smell From FTX is rotting corpse still Wafts across the crypto space a large Majority of those people who were hurt From that collapse were retail and

That's not even counting those that were Harmed and impacted by blockfi Celsius Gemini n Etc the point is that despite The progress that has been made in the Past 6 months with ETFs regulations and The prosecutions of these crypto Criminals the overall feeling towards Crypto from the normi crowd it still Slants negative I mean you don't have to Take my word for it just do your own Search with some anecdotal survey data Ask a random selection of no coiners What they think about crypto you might Well be surprised by how negative their Reaction is it can sometimes be easy for Those of us who work in this sector to Forget but most retail reads the front Pages of the New York Times The Washington Post and the guardian Etc That's the extent of their crypto Research it's also fair enough to say That those retail and institutional Flows that we have seen coming into the Bitcoin ETFs are from those who had not Been buying altcoins in the previous Cycle I mean why would they buy a paper Product right now when they had Previously invested in crypto itself and Expecting those who had invested in These ETF shares to rotate into the Broader altcoin Market that's some Wishful thinking for one thing we don't Even know how much demand there is going To be for the eth ETF products they have

Not launched yet and the estimates about How much could flow into them they're Quite wide we actually covered this in a Recent video which I'll obviously link To in the description for you guys if You want more of a Lowdown now even if These newer investors feel comfortable Investing in eth through an ETF what Makes you think they'd be willing to Move into a completely different altcoin From there it's a huge leap of faith but Perhaps the biggest hindrance here to The altcoin rotation is well the fact That it can't really be done with these ETF investors I mean think about it These are custodial assets with an Incash ETF Redemption model so if these Investors really wanted to start buying Other altcoins they would first have to Sell these ETF shares get the cash fund An exchange account and then buy the Coins there quite simply it's just not a Smooth transition I mean I'm sorry to be A negative NY guys but that's just the Way things are but are things likely to Change and if so when well let me tell You but first if you guys are liking This video help a brother out tap that Like button smash the Subscribe and ping That Bell as well it would be much Appreciated so when Al season eh well Perhaps the best way to get a sense of This is to start right from the top at The macro and then work our way down to

The micro factors on the macro side of It the biggest factor is clearly Interest rates how much money people Have left over after paying their debts Determines how much money is invested in Any sort of speculative asset class and The main driver with this is of course Fed policy when will we see that long Awaited fed pivot Well um current interest rate Futures Are expecting a pivot by September the Earliest however there is a lot that can Happen until then I mean let's not Forget that we began this year thinking That we would see a pivot by March Unfortunately though inflation it's Still sticky and uh growth is strong and Together these two variables mean that Jerome is less inclined to want to Pivot But let's assume that September is the Day you then have to ask yourself how Long it will take for the reduction in Rates to work their way into people's Pockets this is the lag effect of Monetary policy and it can take anywhere Up to 18 months that said you know Markets are forward-looking and so are People if interest rates start trending Lower after September then people will Likely be more inclined to be more Liberal with their discretionary Disposable income if broader retail does Start to invest in crypto again in late Q3 or early Q4 then you are going to

Start seeing a number of signs that the Flows are coming back in many of those Social and trading volume metrics that I Mentioned a few moments ago for example And based on previous Bitcoin altcoin Market Cycles we will also have to see Bitcoin continue its upward trajectory Remember that crypto Market Cycle Theory Goes Bitcoin rotation into alss as was The case in previous Market Cycles Bitcoin has to solidly break out past Its all-time highs again and dominance Has to be rallying into the 60% range Before we start seeing any sort of Rotation back into SS now past Performance of course isn't always a Reliable indicator of future returns and It is likely that the rotation could Begin sooner with a lower dominance top But you know just be aware that this Isn't historically how it is played out Moreover Bitcoin breaking through new All-time highs and key psychological Levels is what drives retail interest in The space the higher Bitcoin goes the More mainstream news coverage it gets And the more eyeballs it draws in this Case much of the consensus seems to be That it could come around the 100K level The same can be said for ethereum we Need to see new all-time highs breaking There before broader retails interest is Once again peaked also there is a lot of Dormant retail from the previous cycle

You know people who hold eth and other Altcoins that will start waking up once Eth hits previous cycle tops so all These metrics should give you a rough Idea as to when altcoin season could be Starting but here's the million dooll Question if we do have an altcoin season Which brings about those Rising Tides Will it lift all altcoin boats unlikely I mean this shouldn't be a controversial Take either and that's because we've Been here before some of the hottest Coins from the 2017 to 2018 cycle were Nowhere to be seen in the 2021 cycle They never recovered their previous All-time highs and are permanently Languishing at the bottom of the crypto Ocean I could go through the list of the Coins right now and thereby risk being Crucified by copium filled bag holders Or you could just do the research Yourself I mean take a look at the top 20 on CMC in early January 2018 and then Take a look at the same list in November 2021 by the same logic that list of the Top 20 cryptos you have here from the 2021 cycle won't be there at the top of The next altcoin cycle I mean teror for Sure won't be making it and sorry to all Of the teror classic fans out there what This therefore means for you is that you Can't purely rely on an altcoin season To rescue those bags that are underwater You have to make sure that those coins

That you are holding have strong Potential in and of themselves we are Talking about the team funding Community User growth Tech road map and most Importantly of all within a compelling Narrative this is something that we have Aled about in numerous videos and we'll Leave links to them down in the Description for you guys so if the Cryptocurrency that you had bought in Previous Cycles meets the aforementioned Due diligence criteria then it will Likely be picked up when the altcoin Season comes around however if you Happen to be holding a coin or token of A project that doesn't meet the sniff Test or worse yet smells like SPF dump It like a full-on diaper even if it's at A loss it's perhaps better to book that Loss now and rotate into an ALT that's More likely to be a high beta play in an Altcoin season uh not Financial advice Of course there are a number of these Which we have covered on the channel and If you want to know what myself and Other members of Team coin Bureau are Bullish on you can check out our Personal portfolios over in the coin Buau Club more details about that in the Description for you guys going to wrap This video up with a few of my personal Thoughts firstly it's quite clear that The altcoin season is nowhere near the March mecoin Madness it's been fun but

It's definitely not the market that is Going to turn the tide it's also evident That right now retail just isn't in the Mood to bid big they are struggling with A whole host of other issues however the Hope is that the pivot brings about the Monetary climate which spark the Conditions required for retail to start Exploring digital assets again as long As we don't get any more nasty inflation Sur Rises this could be a few months Away and once the pivot has started Sentiment could start picking up again However there is one Wild Card variable Or should I say trump card and that's Because the outcome of the US election Could either lead to a boom or a bust For the ecosystem and it's pretty Obvious that one Administration is Likely to be net good for the industry And one is likely to be net bad it's Hard to tell which way the political Winds will blow but if I were you I Would place that in your due diligence Toolbox as well and speaking of which Don't assume that just because a coin or A token was a darling in the last cycle That it will be all the rage in this one Fundamentals are important and are born Out over time it actually reminds me of A famous saying by legendary investor Benjamin gra who fun fact was Warren Buffett's Mentor but he said quote in The short run the market is a voting

Machine but in the long run it is a Weighing machine so be sure that your Altcoins are worth their weight in gold Or should I say digital Gold and that's it for my video today I Hope you found it as interesting as I Did researching it but talk to me talk To me tell me when do you think we'll See an old season or should the question Be if Al season and then if we do which Coins do you think will make it this Cycle and which on the flip side Ngmi let me know down in those comments Below and of course while you're down There don't forget to give me a like and Hit that subscribe button you'll also Want to turn on noes to make sure that Not a single coin Bureau vid falls Through those YouTube cracks until next Time folks adios [Music]

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