WATCH OUT For These!! Macro Factors Driving Crypto Markets!! 📈

Do you ever feel like there’s no safe Haven asset when markets start to crash Well you’re not alone Lately all asset markets including the Crypto market have been moving in Lockstep in response to the same macro Factors That’s why today i’m going to give you An overview of the current macro Situation tell you exactly which macro Factors to watch and show you how they Could affect crypto [Music] Before we talk big picture stuff i need To give you a disclaimer so i don’t end Up in cuffs If you came here for financial advice Tough luck that’s because i’m just an Educator an entertainer who lets you Know what’s up so please contact a Financial advisor if you’re looking for Investment diamonds in the rough If this is your first time falling down The crypto rabbit hole my name is guy And i’m here to turn you into a crypto Pro i do that by creating some of the Highest quality crypto content you’ll Ever know Coins tokens news reviews and other Topics that will help you grow both Inside and outside of crypto If you’re already sold subscribe to the Channel and ping that notification bell Down below

So now that we’re on the same page it’s Time to get our heads around some global Macro Let’s start with an overview of the Current macro situation for those who Don’t know macro is short for Macroeconomics and it essentially Involves analyzing the economy from a Bird’s eye view Macro factors include things like Inflation supply chain issues labor Shortages raw material shortages Internal revolutions international Conflicts you know everything we’re Experiencing right now Now you don’t need to be an economist to Understand that these macro factors have The potential to move asset markets be They stock markets or the crypto market What does require some economic Knowledge however is to understand Exactly how these macro factors interact Especially when they seem to be having The same effect on all asset valuations As i mentioned in the introduction Investors across the board have been Having a hard time finding safe haven Assets in the current macro environment What’s odd is that this hasn’t really Happened before you see historically Government bonds and precious metals Have been good assets to hold when the World goes wonky but this time around Neither of the two has held up

Particularly well Even real estate is starting to show Signs of weakness in some countries and This is the part where other influencers Would say fine art is an exception and Shill you their masterworks referral Link don’t worry i’m not going to do That at least Not yet Jokes aside it appears that what’s Causing all assets to move in tandem is An important macro factor they all have In common and that’s the federal reserve Specifically the fed’s monetary policy It’s believed this correlation across Asset classes was caused by the Trillions of dollars the fed pumped into The economy in response to the pandemic By cutting interest rates to zero among Other things These trillions inevitably found their Way into just about every asset class And now that the fed is starting to Increase interest rates these trillions Are slowly being sucked back out of all Asset markets case in point almost Everything has been crashing since November which is when federal reserve Chairman jerome powell said the fed Would begin raising interest rates in Response to inflation As such investors are viewing all the Macro factors i mentioned earlier Through the lens of the fed and asking

Themselves whether they will result in The fed raising or lowering interest Rates in response As i just hinted the fed raising Interest rates or even just hinting that It will do so means that asset markets Are likely to crash whereas any Indication that interest rates will be Lowered results in a rally This is why a recent bloomberg article Said that the fed is forcing every Investor to focus on macro factors and Why the saying it’s all one trade is Becoming increasingly popular among Investors As you’ll soon see this new economic Paradigm means that some macro factors That are objectively positive are seen As negative in the eyes of investors Simply because of the fed’s assumed Response If you’re wondering how the fed ended up In this precarious situation and what Its monetary policy roadmap is you can Check out my video about that using the Link in the description And a quick pro tip pull up a calendar Or piece of paper to take notes of the Dates i’ll be mentioning in today’s Video as they will tell you when the Crypto market is likely to see some big Moves Now the first macro factor to be on the Lookout for is a no-brainer and that’s

The fed’s monthly press conferences Along with the minutes of the fed’s Monthly meetings that’s because the fed Announces interest rate decisions during Its monthly press conferences If the fed’s interest rate announcement Is consistent with investor expectations Asset markets tend to see a small rally And that’s because investors love Certainty more than anything else If the fed’s interest rate announcement Exceeds investor expectations asset Markets tend to see a big rally since It’s better news than what investors had Priced in As you might have guessed exceeds Investor expectations is code for the Fed announcing it will be raising Interest rates less than it initially Said or even lowering them If the fed’s interest rate announcement Falls short of investor expectations Asset markets tend to see a big crash As you might have again guessed falls Short of investor expectations is code For the fed announcing it will be Raising interest rates more aggressively Than it had initially said If you’re wondering where these investor Expectations come from the answer is the Fed’s board of directors especially Chairman jerome powell as he basically Has the final say on interest rates Besides comments made by the fed’s board

Of directors during various conferences And interviews what jerome says during The fed’s monthly announcements gives Investors insights into the fed’s plans What’s mentioned in the minutes or Summaries of the fed’s monthly meetings Is also eyed closely by investors What’s funny is that the minutes of the Fed’s monthly meetings are typically Released around three weeks after the Meetings take place presumably to Prepare investors for the fed’s next Announcement Obviously if the fed minutes suggest That the fed will be raising interest Rates more aggressively markets tend to Tumble and if they suggest the fed will Be easing off markets tend to rally As it so happens the fed’s next monthly Press conference is just around the Corner it will take place on wednesday The 15th of june so prepare to see some Volatility across asset markets Including crypto In terms of the fed’s minutes for the Meetings taking place on the 14th and 15th of june these will be released on Wednesday 6th of july so mark your Calendars or set a reminder I’ll also leave links to two of the Federal reserves calendars so you’ll Know when the next press conferences and Meetings will be released In the interim you can find out what the

Fed is saying about the prospect of a Central bank digital currency aka Digital dollar using the link in the Description Anyways the second macro factor to be on The lookout for is inflation in the United states as measured by the Consumer price index or cpi and the Personal consumption expenditures price Index or pce This is because the fed is ultimately Raising interest rates to reduce Inflation so if the cpi is high the fed Is likely to raise interest rates more Aggressively and vice versa For reference the fed targets a two Percent inflation rate so anything above That is considered high in the fed size Let’s just say the cpi is closer to ten Percent than it is to two percent If you watch my video about the cpi You’ll know that it’s a measure of how Much people spend on goods and services And that the methods it uses to measure These things are shoddy at best now how Asset markets react to cpi prints once Again boils down to investor Expectations and the dynamic is more or Less the same as with the fed’s press Conferences and minutes of monthly Meetings If the cpi print is consistent with Investor expectations asset markets tend To see a small rally but with the high

Levels of inflation we’ve seen lately Investor certainty doesn’t necessarily Translate to a pump If the cpi print exceeds investor Expectations ie comes in much lower than Expected then asset markets tend to see A massive rally and the fact we haven’t Seen one of those in a while says it all What investors are looking for now are Signs of peak inflation in other words They’re looking for signs that inflation Has topped out and is on the decline Even if it’s still objectively high The rationale there is that the fed will See this downwards trend too and raise Interest rates less aggressively or not At all since inflation is already Falling with its current monetary policy If the cpi print falls short of investor Expectations i.e comes in much higher Than expected then asset markets tend to See a massive crash because they know The fed will raise interest rates in Response The caveat here is that the fed Apparently doesn’t watch the cpi all That closely and that might have Something to do with the fact that the Cpi isn’t exactly the ideal inflation Gauge As far as the fed is concerned the Aforementioned personal consumption Expenditures price index or pce is a Better measure of inflation

Like the cpi the pce is a measure of how Much the average american household Spends on goods and services each month But let’s just say it does this in a Different way As it so happens the last pce print Suggests that inflation could be peaking And this will probably be confirmed by Future inflation prints be they from the Pce or cpi The next pce print will come on thursday The 30th of june but i’ll reiterate that Asset markets don’t seem to react too Strongly to it even though it’s the Fed’s favorite inflation measure That’s why the date you need to Highlight is friday the 10th of june Which is when the next cpi print comes Out and it’s possible that it will be Out by the time you see this video I’ll leave links to the schedule of Releases for the pce and cpi in the Description along with a link to the Schedule of releases for the producer Price index or ppi That’s because the ppi is seen as a Leading indicator for the cpi since the Costs of production eventually find Their way to consumers though the Markets don’t seem to react too much to Ppi prints either For anyone wondering the last ppi print Was a whopping 11 and the next ppi print Will be released on tuesday the 14th of

June just before the fed’s press Conference perfect timing indeed This ties into the third macro factor to Be on the lookout for and that’s Anything that could cause more inflation This is again because the fed is raising Interest rates to reduce inflation so if Inflation continues to rise for whatever Reason the fed will continue to raise Interest rates These days there’s no shortage of macro Factors that could increase inflation But almost all of them involve the Supply side of the inflation equation Now don’t get me wrong much of the Inflation we’re seeing today is a direct Result of the fed’s financial response To the pandemic This had the effect of artificially Increasing demand for assets of all Kinds However much of the inflation we’re Going to face tomorrow is going to come From the supply side of the inflation Equation which is entirely outside of The fed’s control No matter how much the fed raises Interest rates it can’t stop chinese Cities from going into lockdown or Convince russia to export the natural Resources required to make much of the World’s food The fed also can’t convince policymakers In western countries to increase the

Domestic production of fossil fuels to Bring down the rising energy costs which Are starting to threaten their own Economies This is why some believe that the fed’s Interest rate increases will be futile And why others believe that the fed will Increase interest rates into the double Digits That’s because the only way the fed can Reduce inflation is to destroy demand to The point that supply side pressures are Irrelevant because nobody can afford to Buy This is arguably next to impossible to Do because there will always be demand For things like food and energy but this Doesn’t mean the fed won’t try to Destroy demand as much as it can to Fight inflation This will of course have profound Implications for all assets especially Cryptocurrencies and even major altcoins Because they’re still considered as high Risk by most institutional investors In a worst-case scenario it could cause Companies and even some countries to Default on their debts but if the Alternative is the hyperinflation of the Us dollar you can bet the fed will make That sacrifice The worst part is that the macro factors That could cause supply side inflation Don’t exactly run to a schedule they’re

Usually announced as they happen with Little to no forewarning In my experience keeping up with the News can help predict these macro Factors but in truth i’ve never managed To get the timing right and i’d never Think of trying to trade these events Either For what it’s worth i suspect we’re Going to see many of these supply-side Issues resolved by the end of the year Because of the upcoming elections in the United states and elsewhere Inflation has been the number one issue On the minds of voters so much so that It has resulted in record low approval Ratings for the leaders of just about Every country Anyhow the fourth macro factor to be on The lookout for is the employment Situation summary aka the jobs report Along with other employment related Indicators This is because the fed is tasked with Doing two things ensuring price Stability i.e ensuring two percent Inflation And ensuring maximum employment which The fed interprets as four percent Unemployment On that note it’s important to point out That unemployment is the percentage of People who are actively looking for a Job but can’t find one

Unemployment does not count the actual Labor force participation rate which Fell off a cliff at the start of the Pandemic and is yet to recover to its Pre-pandemic levels As you can see the labor force Participation rate has actually been on A long term decline since the early 2000s and that’s mainly because more and More boomers are retiring This is actually why many macro Investors are leaning bearish if the Labor force is shrinking then it’s very Hard to have economic growth in the long Term absent ai and other such Technologies Not surprisingly the labor force is Shrinking because not enough people are Being born and this is something that Tesla ceo elon musk is extremely Concerned about Anyway apologies for the tangent Now according to the latest jobs report Unemployment in the united states is Sitting at around 3.6 This is significant because increasing Interest rates tends to increase Unemployment so the fact that Unemployment is slightly below the fed’s Target means the fed has room to Increase interest rates This is where the paradox comes in Because you’d think the markets would Rally on the news that lots of people

Are getting hired As far as investors are concerned However if lots of people are getting Hired it means that unemployment is on The decline and that means the fed could Raise interest rates more aggressively And as we’ve established raising Interest rates means it’s more difficult For investors to get their hands on easy Money particularly the big banks and Asset managers who transact directly With the fed This is why the markets crashed in Response to the most recent jobs report Which revealed that more jobs had been Added than investors were expecting Had the jobs report revealed that jobs Were actually being lost the markets Would have rallied like mad because it Would mean that the fed can’t raise Interest rates as aggressively if at all This is the clown show of the fiat Financial system we find ourselves in And it begs the question of whether it Creates an incentive for the big banks And asset managers to destroy the Economy Speaking of which blackrock cio rick Rieder predicts that the strong jobs Report the united states saw for may Will be quote the last solid one for a While Rick reckons this is the case because Big companies have begun cutting their

Workforces and putting a freeze on Hiring and not just crypto companies Luckily for blackrock this means profits Are on the way unfortunately for the Average person this means there are some Hard times ahead and we will know for Sure when the next jobs report comes out On friday the 8th of july A link to the schedule of releases for That statistic will be in the Description along with a link to our Video about blackrock and just how much Influence it has over the markets Anywho the fifth macro factor to be on The lookout for doesn’t necessarily Involve the fed and that’s company Earnings namely tech company earnings This is because the crypto market is Highly correlated with tech stocks Especially stocks belonging to tech Companies that work with crypto or hold Cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets As many of you will know publicly traded Companies publish earnings reports Almost every quarter i.e every three Months give or take a few weeks As with many of the other macro factors I’ve mentioned so far how company Earnings impact the price of their Respective stocks fundamentally depends On investor expectations If earnings are above expectations the Stock will see a massive rally if They’re within expectations the stock

Will see a slight rally and if they’re Below expectations Well you all know what happens As to why tech stocks are so important It’s primarily because they make up most Of the s p 500 the stock index that Tracks the price of the top 500 u.s Companies by market cap When tech stocks rally after the release Of robust earnings reports it has a Tendency to cause other stocks to rally As well as the crypto market which Likewise consists of cutting edge tech The importance of crypto related tech Stocks is pretty straightforward if a Company like coinbase posts some serious Profits it’s possible if not likely that Some of this money will be invested into Crypto Conversely if a company like coinbase Starts to see some serious losses it Might be forced to sell some of the Crypto on its balance sheet to cover its Operating costs And speaking of coinbase we recently Analyzed its q1 earnings report in a Video which i’ll leave in the Description you are welcome Anywho the price action of tech stocks Also acts as a de facto indicator of how Much risk investors are willing to take On and to many institutions btc falls Into the same risk category as the likes Of tesla

Note that the fed’s monetary policy can Have a significant impact on tech Company earnings indirectly and tech Company earnings are not nearly as Significant as the other macro factors I’ve mentioned Even so they’re significant enough to The crypto market that they’re worth Mentioning and i’ll leave a list of Upcoming company earnings releases in The description if you need it And that’s all for today’s video about The macro factors that could affect the Crypto market if you found it useful Smash that like button if you plan on Coming back subscribe to the channel and Ping that notification bell if you’re Looking to maximize your gains check out The coin bureau deals page if you’re Looking for more from me and the team Coin bureau eclipse is your next Destination If you want to go deeper down the crypto Rabbit hole the coin bureau podcast is Where you should go if you want to Follow me on social media i’m available On twitter tiktok and instagram If you’re having a hard time keeping up With the crypto market all you need to Do is join my telegram If you’re wondering what cryptos i hold And how i’m changing my portfolio my Weekly newsletter has that gold If you’re itching to acquire some crypto

Themed apparel the coin bureau merch Store is your best bet If you want to know where you can find All these resources look no further than The description And with that thank you all so much for Watching and i will see you very soon Auf wiedersehen sayonara au revoir Goodbye [Music] You

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OUR TAKE

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