Was This The Crypto BOTTOM?! Are We Heading LOWER?! 📉

Btc and eth recently fell below their Previous bull market highs of 20 000 and 1400 Respectively This has many wondering if the bottom of The crypto bear market is in and if not How much lower we could go before the Crypto market starts to stabilize Today i intend on answering these Questions by examining a series of Indicators including previous crypto Lows stock market correlations on-chain Analytics and even institutional price Modeling make no mistake this is a video You cannot miss [Music] Before we go looking for the low i need To protect myself from the popo i am not A financial advisor so i can’t help you With your portfolio all i can do is give You entertaining educational content That will keep you in the know please Contact a financial advisor if the state Of your portfolio is affecting your flow Now if this is the first time we lock Eyes my name is guy and talking crypto Is how i get my high that’s why the coin Bureau is home to some of the highest Quality crypto content available online Coins tokens news and reviews are just a Few of the topics we supply If you want to get on this ride Subscribing to the channel and pinging That notification bell is what i advise

Okay that’s all you need to know from my Side let’s see how much more crypto Prices could dive Now i’ll start by emphasizing that Almost everything in this video is Speculation and that’s because nobody Knows the future not even me All i can do is make predictions based On the best information i have to hand Information that could change at a Moment’s notice as such you can think of Me as your crypto weatherman Now you don’t need to look outside or Rather look at coin market cap to know That it’s been raining red in the crypto Market for months now specifically since November If you watched our video about the macro Factors moving the crypto market you’ll Know that this is because november was When federal reserve chairman jerome Powell announced the fed would begin Raising interest rates in response to Inflation which has been rising ever Since The practical effect of this is that Trillions of dollars that have been Injected into the economy mostly in the Form of debt are now being slowly sucked Out of the economy this is because Individuals and institutions are rushing To pay these debts down before interest Rates rise further selling lots of Assets along the way

Now this epic reversal of liquidity has Caused the crypto bear market we’re in Now and it is slowly but surely pushing Most stocks into bear market territory Too and it looks like the housing sector Could soon follow suit don’t get your Hopes up a 20 decline on an expected 20 Gain means prices will stay the same Now given that the fed is ultimately Raising interest rates to fight Inflation it’s likely that assets across The board will continue to collapse so Long as inflation remains high simply Because it means the fed is going to Continue raising interest rates in Response sucking yet more money out of The economy as i mentioned in our video About when the crypto bear market could End previous interest rate cycles Previous stock market cycles and Previous crypto market cycles all Suggest that the crypto bear market Could continue for at least another year Possibly even two years As i’ve mentioned in many recent videos However we could very well see a sudden Recovery across the board if some of the Factors contributing to this inflation On the supply side are resolved namely The war in ukraine and the pandemic that We’re still technically in Assuming none of these supply side Issues are resolved and the crypto bear Market continues for the expected one to

Two years This begs the question of where exactly The bottom of the crypto bear market Will be and how low crypto could go If you missed the memo that’s exactly What today’s video is about Finding out where the bottom of the Crypto bear market could be begins with Btc That’s because bitcoin leads the crypto Market whatever btc does is what the Altcoins will also do just with more Volatility That’s why a 10 increase in btc’s price Often results in a 15 to 20 percent Increase in price or more for most Altcoins Logically the same volatility applies in Reverse if btc’s price drops by 10 you Can expect to see a drop in price of 15 To 20 or more for most altcoins Now this is important to point out Because i can’t possibly cover every Single altcoin individually nor do i Necessarily need to all that needs to be Watched is btc During the first crypto market cycle btc Hit a high of 32 dollars in june 2011 And fell all the way down to two dollars In november 2011. This works out to a more than 90 drop in Price from high to low and it took Around five months for btc to find its Bear market bottom

During the second crypto market cycle Btc hit a high of eleven hundred dollars In november 2013 and fell all the way Down to 180 In january 2015. This works out to a more than 80 drop in Price from high to low and it took over A year for btc to find its bear market Bottom During the third crypto market cycle btc Hit a high of 20 000 in december 2017 And fell all the way down to 3 200 in December 2018. this again works out to a More than 80 drop in price from high to Low and it took about a year for btc to Find its bear market bottom during the Most recent crypto market cycle btc hit A high of more than 69 thousand dollars In november 2021. Based on btc’s admittedly limited Historical data an 80 drop means btc Could fall as low as the 10 to 14k range And btc’s bear market bottom could be Later this year or early next year Obviously it’s impossible to know Exactly when the btc bottom could be but It’s more than likely that it will be Caused by something unexpected that’s Objectively bad for the crypto market Now as far as i can tell the first bear Market low for btc was caused by the Hack of the now defunct mount gox Cryptocurrency exchange shortly after Btc’s first bull market top

Some sources suggest the first bear Market low for btc was actually caused By crypto miners selling their btc as it Became less and less profitable to mine As its price declined more on that in a Moment The second bear market low for btc was Apparently caused by the hack of the Bitstamp cryptocurrency exchange which Took place just a couple of weeks before The low The story goes that btc holders were Spooked by the possibility of another Mount gox moment The third bear market low for btc was Caused by a combination of factors Including big banks like goldman sachs And jp morgan flooding crypto the sec Rejecting spot bitcoin etf applications And fears of a regulatory crackdown on Usdt stablecoin issuer tether I suspect that the next bear market low For btc will be caused by a similar Combination of factors which could very Well include institutions and even Publicly traded companies like tesla Selling off some of their btc The sec yet again rejecting all bitcoin Spot etf applications and lots of crypto Crackdowns Speaking of which if you want to get a Sense of what crypto regulations Governments around the world are trying To roll out you can check out our video

About the financial action task force’s So-called crypto recommendations Using the link in the description Anyways what’s crazy is that btc’s Correlation with the stock market seems To confirm that btc’s low for this bear Market could be somewhere in the 10 to 14k range Btc’s correlation with the stock market Is as strong as it’s ever been and its Strongest correlation is with the nasdaq 100 which essentially tracks the biggest Tech companies by market cap Btc’s correlation with the nasdaq 100 is Around 0.82 according to arcane research Note that 1 is a perfect correlation Whereas most altcoins are 50 to 100 more Volatile than btc btc is 50 to 100 more Volatile than the nasdaq 100 Case in point btc is down roughly 60 Since the start of the year and the Nasdaq 100 is down roughly 30 since the Start of the year What’s more is that the nasdaq 100 has Historically dipped around the same time As btc has with the nasdaq 100’s own Bear market lows lining up perfectly With btc’s bear market lows in december 2018. This might be more than a coincidence Given that institutions got heavily Involved in crypto during the previous Crypto market cycle and if you watched Our video about the wyckoff method

You’ll know that many crypto traders Believe institutional manipulation of The crypto markets began in late 2017. As you can see the average drop in the Nasdaq 100 from top to bottom varies Quite a bit with the biggest drawdown Being the dot-com bubble crash in the Early 2000s which saw the index drop by More than 75 Some would argue that we’re in the same Dot-com bubble scenario today but i Would argue that it’s more likely that We’re somewhere in the middle so to Speak This means the nasdaq 100 could still Fall another 20 to 25 percent from its Highs which would correspond to another 40 to 50 percent drop for btc As to when we could see the nasdaq 100c Its bear market bottom is really Anyone’s guess since the time between Its previous highs and lows varies even More than its average drop from top to Bottom As far as i can tell it looks like it’ll Be less than a year which is again Consistent with btc’s own timeline Anyhow besides the stock market Correlation there seem to be several Indicators which support the idea that Btc’s low for the current bear market Could be between 10 and 14k The first set of indicators relate to What i mentioned a few moments ago and

That’s bitcoin mining The first indicator to consider on the Bitcoin mining front is bitcoin’s total Hash rate you can think of hashrate as Being the measure of how much computing Power has been committed to the bitcoin Blockchain As you can see bitcoin’s total hash rate Fell off a cliff at the end of 2018 and Actually hit a bottom around the same Time btc hit its bear market bottom for That crypto market cycle This makes sense since bitcoin miners Tend to stop mining when btc’s price Falls to the point that it’s no longer Profitable As you can also see bitcoin’s total hash Rate completely collapsed last year when China banned bitcoin mining i would say That this is nothing more than an Anomaly given that bitcoin’s total hash Rate recovered quite quickly and it’s Clear that upward trend continued Afterwards More in-depth data from glasnote’s Hashrate indicator reveals that Bitcoin’s total hash rate fell by around 50 From top to bottom during the first Crypto market cycle and fell by around 50 from top to bottom during the third Crypto market cycle Oddly enough bitcoin’s total hash rate Continued to rise throughout the

Entirety of the second crypto market Cycle and i suspect this is an anomaly Caused by the invention of specialized Crypto mining machines called asics in 2012 which made mining profitable even At much lower btc prices In any case the admittedly limited data For bitcoin’s total hash rate suggests We could or rather should see at least a 40 drop from the current highs of around 200 terra hashes per second which would Be around 120 terra hashes per second When that happens chances are the btc Bottom is in Now it’s possible if not likely that Bitcoin’s total hash rate could soon Start to decline as the average cost of Mining currently sits at around 20k per Btc according to crypto rank However it’s also possible if not likely That the average cost of mining is Slightly lower and that’s because Glassnode’s minor net position change Indicator suggests that bitcoin miners Haven’t been selling much of their btc Lately The miner net position change indicator Will make it obvious when we reach the Point of maximum pain for bitcoin miners And i suspect the actual average cost of Mining might be closer to 14k per btc Than 20k per btc Regardless the fact that energy costs Continue to climb in just about every

Country means that bitcoin miners will Start feeling the squeeze around these Levels sooner or later and i’m sure many Of them are feeling the squeeze already On that note you can find out what Rising energy costs could mean for Crypto mining using the link in the Description Anywho the second set of indicators Which support the idea that btc is low For the current bear market could be Between 10 and 14k relate to btc’s price The first indicator to consider is Called the volume profile visible range Or vpvr that’s available on tradingview Note that you do need a subscription to Access this indicator but what i’m about To tell you now should give you all the Info you need on this front The vpvr basically shows you how much Trading volume happened at different Price levels in the past The higher the trading volume the Stronger the support if prices are Falling and the stronger the resistance If prices are rising As you can hopefully see there was a Decent amount of trading volume for btc Around the 18k range this might be a Part of why we bounced from this level And saw a small recovery rally last week That and the fact that bitcoin miners Had stopped selling their btc Looking further down reveals a massive

Wave of trading volume for btc that Begins at around 12k and peaks at around 10k This suggests that this is the lowest Level btc could fall to and there are Likely lots of buy orders waiting to be Filled around these levels by Institutions and individuals alike as Well Other indicators to consider are the Bollinger bands relative strength index Or rsi and moving average convergence Divergence or macd If you watched our video about how to Buy the dip you’ll know that when the Price of a crypto falls below the Bollinger bands the rsi is below 30 and The macd has bottomed or is starting to Reverse chances are you’re at or near a Local or long-term bottom If you were to apply these indicators to Btc’s daily and weekly time frame then Everything would be telling you to buy The dip because all three boxes have Been ticked more or less From a bird’s eye view however it’s Clear that btc’s price is in a long-term Downtrend which means we must zoom out As you can see things look a bit Different when you use these three Indicators on btc’s monthly time frame Btc’s price hasn’t fallen below the Bollinger bands the rsi is still above 30 and it doesn’t look like the macd has

Bottomed out or is even starting to Reverse yet Extrapolating on the existing trends for These indicators and btc’s monthly price Actions suggests we have at least Another few months of drawdown before we See the bottom Drawing a support line through btc’s Monthly candles reveals the bottom will Again be somewhere around 13 to 14k Now if all this technical analysis stuff Sounds a bit too abstract i strongly Suggest checking out our technical Analysis tutorial videos to understand The science behind it i’ll leave a link To the first episode of that in the Description Anywho the last indicator i want to Examine today is actually a price model For bitcoin developed by fidelity’s head Of macro economics durian timmer for Those unfamiliar fidelity is one of the Largest asset managers in the world with Trillions of dollars in its coffers and It recently made it possible for its Clients to invest in btc through their Pension accounts as you can imagine Fidelity has lots of data to back up its Bullishness on bitcoin and durian seems To have been the tip of the spear in That regard at least in the eyes of us Retail investors You see durian was and presumably still Is a huge fan of the stock to flow model

For bitcoin developed by plan b a model Which has been thoroughly invalidated by Btc’s recent price action What’s durian liked about the stock to Flow model is that it accurately Presented the supply side of bitcoin’s Economic equation in his mind all the Model was missing is the demand side Naturally durian took it upon himself to Come up with different ways of measuring The demand side of bitcoin’s economic Equation and he eventually settled on The number of bitcoin wallets with a Non-zero balance as the best measure Bitcoin wallets that hold at least a bit Of btc To forecast btc’s future price durian Assumed that the number of bitcoin Wallets with a non-zero balance would Grow at either the same rate as the Internet’s adoption or the same rate as Mobile phone adoption the result is what You see here and i know the image is a Little bit hard to see So for anyone who can’t see or is just Listening in Durian’s supply and demand model puts Btc’s future fair value at around 70k by 2028 assuming it follows the same Adoption curve as the internet And a future fair value of around 600k By 2028 assuming it follows the same Adoption curve as mobile phones if Fidelity’s actions didn’t make it

Obvious enough durian believes that Bitcoin will follow the adoption curve Of mobile phones but notes it’s possible That it could be somewhere between the Two hence why he provides a third Adoption curve that combines the two With a 300k btc by 2028 not too shabby But that’s enough of the hopium after All we’re here to see how low btc could Go Now what’s annoying is that durian’s Supply and demand model puts btc’s price On a logarithmic scale meaning it’s hard To do any real measuring using the price Action of previous cycles specifically How much btc deviated below its assumed Adoption curves What is crystal clear though is that Btc’s price did drop significantly below The internet adoption curve in previous Crypto market cycles The fact it hasn’t done that yet Suggests that btc could fall quite a bit Further once again bringing us slightly North of 10k As to when that could happen i really Can’t tell using durian’s supply and Demand model but by now i reckon it’s Reasonable to assume the time frame for The bottom is roughly the same as we’ve Been talking about too about half a year From now If you’re wondering what else has Fidelity so bullish about btc you can

Check out our video about a report they Wrote a while back using the link in the Description And that is all for today’s video about How low the crypto market could go if You think this info is important feel Free to share it with whomever you see Fit If you found the video informative smash The like button to let me know and be Sure to subscribe to the channel and Ping that notification bell so you don’t Miss the next video In the meantime you can check out coin Bureau clips for more content from me And follow me on twitter tiktok and Instagram for lots of memes and behind The scenes If you’re looking for crypto rabbit Holes the coin bureau podcast is where You should go It’s available on all the platforms you Know If you’re having a hard time keeping up With the crypto market you should join My telegram channel for crypto market Updates and subscribe to my weekly Newsletter for my in-depth analysis of Where crypto prices have been and where They’re going You even get to see which cryptos i hold In my personal portfolio If you want to support the channel head On over to the coin bureau merch store

And get yourself some crypto themed Apparel that fits links to all these Resources are down in the description Thank you all so much for watching and I’ll see you next time stay cool stay Safe And stay crypto [Music] You