The Real Reason Bitcoin & Crypto Are Going Down [Jobs Report Today]

Yes welcome back everybody to altcoin Daily my name is Austin let's talk about The real reason we are watching Bitcoin Ethereum crypto Trend down right now and It has everything to do with the latest Jobs report and what this means for Macro so the latest jobs report shows an Increase of over 517 000 new jobs in January crushing Estimates as the unemployment rate hits A 53-year low and this is almost unheard Of and I'll share with you why first of All this is the United States Unemployment rate on the 25-year chart And unemployment is so low right now we Have to zoom out even further to see the Last time we were at these levels so Unemployment is around 3.4 percent the Last time we saw something like this was In the 70s and the reason this is Outrageous the January jobs report Showed non-farm payrolls meaning the Manufacturing jobs the construction jobs Goods jobs Etc the non-farm payroll jobs increase Increased by over half a million for Higher than just the one hundred and Eighty seven thousand Market estimate And the unemployment rate fell to 3.4 Percent versus the estimated 3.6 percent So lower than expected that is the Lowest jobless level actually since May 1969. specifically which jobs really Increased well Leisure and Hospitality

Added over 128 000 jobs to lead all Sectors other significant gainers were Professional in Business Services 82 000 Government 74 000 and Health Care fifty Eight thousand and the reason this is Sort of unbelievable slash Uncharted Territory is because unemployment is Reaching these record lows as the Federal funds rate interest rate has Never increased at such a fast rate While inflation is still trending to the Downside so again Uncharted Territory What we're seeing this time is clearly Very different in a direct quote from Chief U.S Economist at MasterCard Economic Institute she says it was a Phenomenal report this brings into Question how we're able to see that Level of job growth despite some of the Other realmlings in the economy the Reality is it shows there's still a lot Of pent up demand for workers in a Direct quote from the chief Economist at ZipRecruiter she says today's job report Is almost too good to be true like Twenty dollar bills on the sidewalk and Free lunches falling inflation paired With falling unemployment is the stuff Of economic fiction and finally how this Affects the market you and me in a final Direct quote from the elite Economist at Glassdoor he says today's report is an Echo of 2022's surprisingly resilient Job market beating back recession fears

The FED has a New Year's resolution to Cool down the labor market and so far The labor market is pushing back So again how this affects Bitcoin and Even taking what Jerome Powell said a Few days prior in his last meeting that As long as unemployment numbers remain Good the economy can clearly still take Interest rate hikes we are clearly not Close to recession if the labor market Is doing so well But this jobs report is the reason we Watched Bitcoin and the rest of the Cryptocurrency market dip it is the Reason we watched the S and P dip Friday When this report came out and the reason Is because Jerome Powell was a very Clear last meeting that at the moment he Does expect to raise interest rates just One more time 25 basic points and then Hold rates at the five percent level the Rest of the year now obviously he caveat Of that with as they get more data They'll update their opinion but that's Their mindset at the moment checking Back in at the CME fedwatch tool which Tells us what's the likelihood that the FED will change the Federal target rate At the upcoming fomc meeting next one in 44 days right now the market is still Pricing in just a 25 basis point rate Hike next meeting so nothing's changed In that capacity again this is showing Us the target rate probabilities for the

Next fed meeting in March but then Looking at the problem abilities for the Next next meeting in May the market is Telling us that they think it is much More likely now that the FED again Raises just another 25 basis points one One more time according to the CME Group Data Traders increased their bets the FED would approve a quarter percentage Point increase rate hike at its March Meeting with the probability Rising Actually to 94.5 percent they also now Expect another increase in May or June That would bring the central bank's Benchmark funds rate to a target range Of then 5 to 5.25 percent now of course The risk at keeping rates at such a high Level the risk is that they send this Economy into recession we've seen the Time and time and time again Historically with the FED historically The fed's tendency is to overshoot Interest rates meaning end too late also They're usually late to the start and You can see in these gray areas right Here they tend to raise until they Physically can't anymore because the Economy is pushed into a recession so That's the risk here on the other side The FED is hoping to engineer a soft Landing for the economy the FED is Telling us that hey this time they think That this is a different situation and They're saying this time is different I

Would say overall though my own view Would be that you're not going to have a You know a sustainable return to two Percent inflation in that sector without A better balance in the labor market and I don't know what that will require in Terms of of increased unemployment your Question I do think there are a number Of Dimensions through which the labor Market can soften unemployment will Probably rise a bit from here but I Still think I continue to think that There's a path to getting inflation back Down to two percent without a really Significant economic decline or a Significant increase in unemployment and That's that's because this the you know The setting we're in is quite different The the inflation that we Originally got was very much a collision Between Very strong demand and hard Supply Constraints not something that you Really have seen in in Prior uh you know In Prior business Cycles And obviously based on some metrics this Time is different I will repeat today's Job report is almost too good to be true Like twenty dollar bills on the sidewalk And free lunches falling inflation Paired with falling unemployment is the Stuff of economic fiction every month We're going to get new data this channel Will review it we'll bring it to you but

Today as a Bitcoin investor today what This means to you and me is you're gonna Have to make a decision on do you Believe Jerome Powell when he says we're Going for a soft Landing this time is Different now if you would have believed Him just a year ago you would have been Dead wrong he told us maybe a year year And a half ago that inflation is Transitory inflation's never going to Get this High don't worry about it and Of course he was wrong the FED is Historically always late to the party With these interest rate hikes and Inflation when they should have raised Earlier they raised too late and then They play catch-up with interest rate Hikes to quell inflation yet the jobs Data today does support his thesis and My take looking at the FED funds rate Today best case is that we get just one More 25 basis point rate hike and then We hold for the rest of the year maybe We get 25 and then 25 again and then we Hold for minimum the next few months Possibly the rest of the year my take as Long as interest rates not only are this High but are held this high it's going To be very hard for cryptocurrency to Enter the official next bull market I'm Not saying that we need to see lower Lows maybe we have already bottomed but I am saying it seems to be unlikely to Me that we enter the next official bull

Market that we enter the next Bull Run With the FED doing every single thing They can to keep money out of the system And Bitcoin and ethereum and crypto are Speculative assets and it's just harder For speculative assets to do well with The FED actively encouraging money out Of the system now obviously I could be Wrong I'm not not a financial advisor Nor can I see the future so make your Own decisions And if I am wrong maybe I can see a Future where even under high interest Rate levels maybe the Blue Chips the Bitcoins the ethereums I can see a world Where money consolidates and flows back Into them that thesis of course will be Proven if we continue to see Bitcoin Dominance keep going up which we have Been the last several weeks but either Way what I expect is just many more Months of chop validation and to me Because I'm a long-term believer I think A great time to accumulate the Blue Chips hey by the way our pictures were Just put on the website for outer edge La 2023 as speakers we are moderating a Panel so be sure to click the link down Below and join us use code altcoin daily VIP for 10 off I hope to see you there Awesome event in LA and of course in Miami Beach later this year in May use Code altcoin daily for 10 off your Tickets this is the biggest Bitcoin

Conference in existence it's going to be Absolutely awesome to see everybody link Down below like always see you tomorrow

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