Steve this was extraordinary on on a Number of of levels I think head of the FED Jerome Powell just caused a melt up In the market sent a bold message to Bitcoin holders and after announcing the FED keeps the rates the same between 5.25 and 5.5% Jerome Powell said this The other question the question of when Will it be become appropriate to begin Dialing back the amount of policy Restraint in place that that begins to Come into view uh and is clearly a Discussed topic of discussion out in the World and and also a discussion for us Uh at our meeting today and just using That language from Jerome Powell being Open talking about that potential pivot This is something we have not seen in Years it was extraordinary on on a Number of of levels I think number one The Fed chair in his news conference did Nothing to walk anything back from the Statement he did nothing to Hawk it up So to speak and I know he said sounded Like it would be premature and he said As much premature to declare Victory There was no jumpsuit there was no Aircraft carrier but he doesn't seem Like he's that far away either from Doing just that yeah I think this was a Pretty big day Scott I think that uh the FED pivoted today I think it went from Having this bias to hike to being in Neutral with a forecast to cut rates and
I think that's a pretty big deal and he Acknowledged in response to my question That yeah they sat around the table Today yesterday and they talked about R Cuts here's a essentially Jerome Powell Gave the green light to pump your bags Fed looking likely to Pivot markets Ripping ETF news coming having in a few Months can anything stop crypto SC I I Thought the chair might have tried to Hold back the water on the damn one more Meeting I guess the data yesterday um And today especially the PPI and what it Says he mentioned this specifically we Talked about it on your show at noon Today what the data today says what's Going to happen to the pce numbers next Week made it kind of untenable for him To hold back and and to M maintain a a Position that was too hawkish and uh Just real quick we have been talking About this uh uh number that uh Jeff was Talking about this uh CPI ex shelter Which has down been below 2% for several Months now uh there there's that number Right there and you can see it it's down Below two and then okay so it's not fair To take shelter out the reason you take Shelter out is because the shelter in in Um component they use there is lagged About 3/4 Scot from some of the other Market-based indicators that are out There and if you fold those in you Really don't have a problem it may be
That the FED is already there and and And the concern was that the FED would Keep rates high and depress the economy For too long based on bad data and let's Break down this data by the way click Subscribe subscribe to altcoin daily for One video per day keeping you informed But as of yesterday headline CPI was 3.1% as expected and core CPI was 4.0% as expected so the CPI was just Released and meet expectations here's The two main takeaways and largest Variation first the Consumer Price Index Increased by 0.1% month over Monon and 3.1% year-over-year which is in line With Economist expectations and is down From the 3.2% last month this is a good Trend but we are still above the fed Target of 2% second the core CPI which Excludes food and energy to have a less Volatile read on inflation Rose by 0.3% Month over month and 4% year-over-year Which is also in line with analysts Estimates finally the main variations Are shelter costs which increased Again By 6.5% year-over-year but is down from The 6.7% figure from last month the Energy category is down 5.4% as gasoline Fell 8.9% the food category is up 2.9% Led by the food away from home at 5.3% The food at home is up 1.7% the vehicle Insurance is again among the highest Increase as it's up 19.2% year-over-year Worker wages increased by .2% month over
Month and .8% year-over-year on an Inflation adjusted basis so the FED is Pushing the stock market to all-time Highs Bitcoin and crypto assets will be Next and why after almost every single Federal funds rtie we've seen from the FED for the last 50 years they almost Always led to a recession is that Recession still coming or why does Drome Powell say this time's different it may Or may not be about different the US Economy being different I think that This inflation was not the Classic demand Overload pot boiling over kind of Inflation that we think about it was a Combination of very strong demand Without without question and unusual Supply side restrictions both on the Good side but also on the labor side Because we had a we had a participation Shock so this is just very unusual and You know we had the view my colleagues And I broadly had the view that we could Get a lot of you know we had a Essentially a vertical supply curve Because you you ran into the limits of Of capacity at very low levels because There weren't workers and because people Couldn't the the supply chains were all Broken so we we had the view that you Could come straight down that vertical Supply curve to the extent demand Lowered reduced and you know something
Like that has happened it happened so Far the question is you know it once Once that part of it runs out and we Think it has a ways to run we definitely Think that the that the um uh the sort Of supply chain and shortages side has Some some ways to run does labor force Participation have much more to run it Might immigration could help but it may Be that at some point you some point you Will run out of supply side help and Then it gets down to demand and it gets Harder that that's very possible but to Say with certainty that the last mile is Going to be different I I'd be reluctant To you know to to suggest that we have Any certainty around that we just don't Know I mean inflation keeps coming down The labor market keeps getting back into Balance and INF you know it's um so far So good although we we we kind of assume That that it will get harder from here But so far it hasn't so comment down Below do you think that this is end of Cycle top of cycle Behavior or do you Think yes we may have a cool off yes Make your own decisions nobody can see The future take responsibility for you But do you think we may be just getting Started this is not end of cycle Market Behavior this is early cycle expansion Re accelerating what if it's just a late Year run as fast as you can catch up to What you missed a lot of money has come
In and it's just chasing everything to The end of the year as rates have come Down we've seen a huge turnaround in Cyclical stocks the banks are turning The regional banks are turning up small Caps are leading I think if this is 98 You know we can run another 7% from Today to when to year end 4,800 is more Reasonable but I think that if it was a Head fake we'd see credit calling Boney And we see spreads riding or high yield Falling but what's happened is spreads Have rallied high yields rallied it's Actually a improving liquidity rally While investors took $240 billion out of Stocks this year now as we get into next Year we'll have an fomc decision I think It's going to show that fed is no longer Fighting an inflation War but really Shifting towards managing the business Cycle huge change interest rates could Make a huge move lower our technician Thinks it could be 3 3 and 1.2% 3.2 and That would take mortgage rates down to Five or under 5% we know that would help The economy and I think there's a lot of Pent up demand for cap back stocks could Do very well next year by the way Breaking news by one of the most popular Crypto wallets in existence a few hours Ago they alerted the masses We have identified and removed a Malicious version of The Ledger connect Kit a genuine version is being pushed to
Replace the malicious file now do not Interact with any daps for the moment Meaning any Ledger based daps we will Keep you informed as the situation Evolves your Ledger device and Ledger Live were not compromised so Ledger Takes another L essentially if nothing Else a PRL and this is a wallet I've Used just because usually the wallet you Sort of get onboarded to when you first Join you usually use that much like an Exchange and ler was my first wallet It's still my wallet one of my wallets Update the malicious version of the file Was replaced with a genuine version at Around 235 p.m. C the new genuine Version should be propagated soon we Will provide a comprehensive report as Soon as it's ready and the latest update If you use Ledger from about an hour ago Ledger connect kit genuine version 1.1.8 Is being propagated now automatically we Recommend waiting 24 hours until using The Ledger connect kit again so that is The news today my name's Austin like Always see you tomorrow
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