The Labor Market

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the macroverse today we're going to Talk about the most recent jobs report If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and also check out Intothe cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse Docomo so and you can lock in lower rate Let's go and jump in so there's a lot of Different things to talk about as it Relates to the macroverse and of course We might touch on on bitcoin as well but Let's just go through the charts we've Also added a couple of new charts that I Think people will like so we'll talk About that as well so the unemployment Rate is now at 4.1% now this is still just a steady Move higher if you zoom in to the trend It's basically just been going up by 0.1% every month since March right so This is of course the June data point Because this July we get the data point For June now this is the unemployment Rate for basically everyone older than 16 16 years old if you isolate the Unemployment rate to say just 16 to 19 Year olds you can see that it's actually At 12.1% but again this is 16 to 19 year Olds if you look at say 25 to 54 year Olds the the unemployment rate is only At

3.5% but you can see that it is starting To accelerate right it was at 3.2% in April then 3.3% in May and then most Recently at 3.5% so if you were to look at say a Year-over-year change you can see it is In fact positive you can look at a Quarter over quarter change and and see That it you know it's increasingly more Positive than it has been for this Business cycle so definitely a lot of Interesting interesting things happening Over in the labor market but at this Point the unemployment rate under the Context of history is still relatively Low right just holding you know looking At a line across the page at the Unemployment rate there have only been a Few times in history when the Unemployment rate was even lower than Where it is now obviously most of the Time we spent well above a four a 4% Unemployment rate however there are Certain things that have still not yet Triggered like the Som Ru has not yet Triggered we'll talk a little about that Later on in the video now if we look at The unemployment Level you can see that it's moved up by 162,000 to 6.81 million so that also is continuing To go up and you can see that over here It was a more stochastic move right like It was it was going up but it was doing

So in a stochastic manner meaning it Would go up and then it would pull back And then it would go up and then it Would pull back but ever since March It's just been going up right and and This is you know this is the issue I Think for the FED is that this is Starting to pick up some steam and you Know will they pivot soon enough to Avoid this running away for a while or Or will they not and and perhaps Supplying say like a three-month moving Average could be useful you can see that This moved up it then had a pretty big Pullback and then now it's just been Moving up again so I I would continue to Keep an eye on that you could also look At the unemployment level by reason for Unemployment and for instance you could Look at things like job losers that Actually dropped by 44,000 we could look At at new entrance to the labor force I Think this is an interesting one to look At because there is a lot of evidence to Suggest that layoffs All Things Considered are still relatively low if You look at initial claims they're still Relatively low but if you look at Continued claims they're still trending Higher what this would generally suggest To me is that people are not getting Laid off as as much as I think maybe a Lot of people are thinking they are but The people that are getting laid off are

Having a hard time finding a new job I Think one of the reasons for that is That I think over the last several years A lot of businesses had trouble hiring Talent that they you know they they had Trouble finding the right person for the Job and just getting Talent tent because A lot of other companies were sort of Hoarding a lot of that Talent a lot of The big tech companies and then now that Job market has loosened up I think a lot Of these companies are afraid sometimes To lay off a lot of people now that Doesn't mean that their that sentiment Can't change eventually but if they're Worried that they're going to be unable To find new people in a in a year or two That can do the job then maybe they Would rather just hold on to who they Who they have rather than try to lay off Someone and rehire later On so I think that this one is a really Interesting metric the new entrance to The labor market because what this shows Is it's not you know it's the Unemployment level going up not because People are getting laid off but just Because there's new people entering the The the the labor market right you know If you're if you are now looking for a Job for whatever reason maybe you Graduated college uh maybe you're out of High school and you want to you want to Get a job there whatever the reason

Might be maybe you just wanted to take a Break for a while and then now you're You're you're back out looking for work This shows that it is becoming very Difficult in fact for new entrance to The labor market to actually find a job And you can see that by the fact that This is continuing to accelerate um this Is now at 78,000 but back in February 2022 it was Only at 428,000 so you can definitely See it is becoming increasingly Difficult for people to find a job that Are new but it is still not at you know The levels that you saw back in you know 2009 that was all the way that was Basically double the current Val the Current levels um and and in and in 2000 It it it was actually pretty low and it Only started to really increase Basically to the level that it is now so I mean it really goes to show how how Every metric is is really interesting And um Can can give you insight into the Market job levers you know how many People are actually leaving is that Showing any useful Insight I don't see Any off the off the bat but again just One more to look at permanent job losers Um let's just go look at it like this Permanent job losers unemployment level Continues to to slowly go up but it it's Still in that stochastic process right It's it it actually dropped by

121,000 so we're going to continue on we Could look at the unemployment rate per State as well um and and we're just Going to look at a few we will in fact Look at Al abama since it is the first Alphabetically uh it actually dropped Slightly to 3% I think California also Dropped it did drop a little down to 5.2% again it's well off its low at About 3.8 but it did drop this most Recent month I always think it's Interesting to check in on on States Like New York and one of the reasons is Because last time we looked at this it Was actually going down and you can see It's leveled off again uh California is Always an interesting one to check and Actually we just looked at California That was the one that dropped back to 5.2% the District of Columbia I I think Is interesting because it was actually Accelerating a lot it's up to 5.3% and then also I think checking in In in some various regions like the the Northeast uh Massachusetts is has been a Really interesting one for me to follow Just because while a lot of States we've Seen the unemployment rate just go Higher Massachusetts we've actually seen It go a lot lower but now it's actually Off its low from 2.9% back up to 23% so You know there are some states that are Actually printing a lower unemployment Rate like California but then you have

Others like Massachusetts that actually Went up slightly but still relatively Low under the context of History we could also look at at at a Few random ones I think every time I'll Try to just click on some random ones Just in case that's where you know you Live and you're curious here's Ohio Ohio Looks like it bottomed out at around 3.3% and it's starting to accelerate to The upside right in in February is at 37 In March it was at 38 in April it was at 4 and then now it's at 4.2 so this one Ohio is starting to accelerate um we Could look at at Texas Texas has also Been really low compared to a lot of Other states it did move up last month But then it stayed flat at 4% and then perhaps we will check in I'd Like to check in with the Northwest um So why don't we check in with Washington State and see what that's doing so Washington state is up to 4.9% Unemployment rate so also continuing to Slowly go higher and then maybe one more We'll go with the Midwest so why don't We check in with uh Kansas and see what That one's doing here you can see it's It's also going up right you know it was At a low of 2.6 earlier this year now It's at 2.9 now it's interesting to sort of Figure out what are the number of states Where the unemployment rate is actually

Going up because we saw of them actually You know have have gone down recently Most of them are going up so we can Simply go over here and say all right The number of states going Up over the last Month is 10 well this hasn't been Updated in in a in a in a month or two But if you go say look at six months you Can see that it's currently at around 19 Right as of as of April so it's Currently at around 19 but again my Guess is that it's going to you know it It it put in a high and then a higher Low and then a higher high I'm going to Guess that it's going to put in a higher Low and then go back up you can see that In 2022 this sort of peaked out in Q4 And then in 2023 it peaked out in Q4 so My guess is that because the FED hasn't Lower rates we haven't gone back to QE We're going to see the labor market Continue to tighten up so I would guess This is going to curl back up and then Go again and perhaps this is going to be Sort of like the uh the the boy who Cried wolf with some of the labor market Data right so like the labor market was Screaming you know hey look unemployment Rate's going up and then it came back Down and everyone was like oh was a False signal and then it went up again And everyone's like oh look at that and Then it was a false signal and then

Maybe the third time is when it matters And and no one's going to take it Seriously I I honestly don't know um but It is something that that's interesting To watch now here's a really interesting Chart this is a map of state where the Unemployment rate is rising over the Last 6 months okay the the it when when The unemployment rate starts to go up It's sort of like a virus it starts in Certain sectors certain regions of the Country and then it expands right so you Can see that it's over here on the West Coast we we see the unemployment rate is A bit higher right 5.2 4.2 and 4.9 but Then if you go up to the Northeast you Can see you got 2.1 2.5 3% 3% here's 4.2 Um going down a little bit further you Get 4.6 and 3.4 But then you come to the Midwest and you Can see that it has started to go up Now this is just looking at a single Snapshot what I'd like to do is play This for you so you can see what this Has looked like since 1976 so that was a Recession right there in the 70s right This is where the unemployment rate went Up compared to six months ago see that Recession right there where they're all Turning orange that was early 1980 when Vulker finally did what needed to be Done and then that was 1981 um when they Basically had a double sort of a Back-to-back recession um continuing on

We should see it turned bright orange in A minute as we get into the 1990s we had A recession in early 1990 there it is Okay we're going to let it continue to Play now we're now we should see not a Not a ton there's maybe a scare in the In the mid 90s right there but it it Didn't it didn't really affect the whole Country at the same time now we're about To get into the dot crash in 3 2 1 And here is the crash and that there you Can see the whole country was affected Now coming up in a few seconds we're Going to get into the financial crisis We're currently in 2006 now 2007 and Here it is the financial Crisis okay and then now it should be Relatively boring for most the 201s and T0s I think there was a scare in 2015 2016 we're about to come up on that Right here But it didn't affect the whole country Here's 2017 2018 again not affecting the Whole country now we're about to hit 2020 there it is right and then now 2022 Begins you can see it was a scare but Not the whole country here's 2023 and Now we're in 2024 so certain sectors of The Country are weak the labor market is Weak other sectors are strong but Because it's not the entire country the You know know the stock market really Likes climbing the wall of worry because

It it needs a reason not to and we said You know until the labor market really Folds the stock market can in FL can in Fact climb the wall of worry I think This is a really interesting chart to Look at it like that it helps us Visualize what's really going on and it Also shows how in in examples of soft Landings you basically see it do Something like this where it never fully Goes orange like where the the map Doesn't fully ever go orange but if you Look at ual Recessions you see that it Will right so right now this is where we Are right in 2022 we actually got pretty Close right we got pretty Close later this year I think could be Sort of the highit time as as we as we Go back and look at number of states Where the unemployment rate is rising we Saw it sort of top out in Q4 what if This is the Q4 that it finally makes a Difference and then that's where the FED Ultimately has to Pivot ahead of that we Can also look at alternative Unemployment rate measures this is Greater than 15 weeks unemployed we saw A big move up over the last couple of Over the last couple of PRS right from 1.3% all the way up to 1.5% people not in the labor force so This is one basically just showing you

Un let's let's look at the Year-over-year percentage change it's Slightly positive right slightly Positive and you can see what it's done In Prior recessions now we're going to Go over to employment statistics so There's some more boring ones like the Labor force participation rate here's The civilian Force the Civ the civilian Labor Force Level and this is an Interesting one to look at in terms of a Year-over-year percentage change right So when you do have recessions a lot of Times it will go negative but not always There are some examples of recessions Where it didn't go negative Year-over-year right now it's at Point 6% from you know some highs in 2022 of Over 2% the employment level we saw 206,000 new jobs total nonfarm um still Increasing at a steady Pace month over Month while it is increasing the rate That it's increasing is steadily going Down for instance if you were to apply a 7-month moving average to this you can See that you know it was at at at you Know 3% now it's at half of that 0.15% Or so so it is starting to come down now That's the establishment survey the Household survey isn't as rosy right the Well the the household survey did add 116,000 new jobs if you were to look at A year-over-year percentage

Change it's almost negative right it's It's at1 121% and and back in 2022 it was at 4.84% so in 2022 there was a lot more Excess to get rid of now we've gotten Rid of that excess and now we're at a Very difficult level for the FED because Inflation really hasn't gotten to their Target there's no clear sign that it Durably is going to do so and therefore We run the risk of the FED staying too Tight for too long and inducing a Recession now there are examples of soft Landings like we talked about earlier But this is ultimately the risk that we Face now 's also nonfarm private payroll Employment level actually I'm going to Go back to the employment level for a Minute this is total nonfarm if you look At at total Private and you look at a year-over-year Percentage change it's at 1.5% on the Establishment survey household survey It's At .121 okay um actually no this we're Looking at the same thing total 16 years And older I was I guess the Establishment survey actually actually Separates it out the household does not So there's actually a better way we can Look at this let's first look at the Non-farm private payroll employment Level uh year-over-year percentage

Change it did get a little bit of a drop Here recently down from 1.8% to 1.49 but Here we can go through some of the Different categories right so here is Here is construction still steady Steadily moving higher let's look at Financial activities steadily moving Higher Manufacturing not not moving higher Right in fact it's really leveled off Here um and then professional and Business services also leveled off now This is one that's probably one of the More scary looking charts this is total Temporary help services and it has been Moving down essentially since the FED Started raising rates in in early 2022 But it almost looks like it's starting To accelerate here if you look at a Year-over-year percentage change you can See that it's at 7.7% but it's basically been at that Level for over a year now but again if You zoom in here it looks like it's Starting to accelerate to the downside Right it sort of popped up for a little But now it's kind of coming back down Multiple job holders multiple job Holders has has actually decreased by About 15 158,000 here's an interesting Chart this is job postings on indeed um Sort of normalized for where it was back In Pre pandemic in in February of 2020 So if you look at it like that you can

See that it's still a little bit higher Than early than than pre pandemic it's At 100 111 and then you know pre- Pandemic is is normalized at 100 so you Can see that it has ComEd out a lot but It's not at at that pre-pandemic level This is total job postings on indeed now If you look at at various sectors of it You might see something different for Instance if you were to look at Mathematics my undergrad was in math Actually which is why I'm interested if You look at mathematics um you know and You look at pre-pandemic 100 today it's At 77 so in some areas of the labor Market you can see a lot of this excess Was already removed but in other areas It hasn't been removed and marketing It's actually below the pre-pandemic Levels and it has been for quite some Time with um media and Communications It's well below the pre-pandemic levels If you were to look at scientific Research and development it's well below The pre-pandemic Levels um if we look at sports it's Above the prepandemic levels right so it Kind of and maybe we'll look at at at Physicians and surgeons well above the Prepandemic levels right I mean this is At 178 compared to pre- pandemic of 100 Because it's normalized so that right Management I wouldn't be surprised if This one's coming down right and it is

It is it's near the pre-pandemic level It's currently a 104 now we're going to get into job Openings now job openings is an Interesting one because it it has been Stead moving down and you know the Headline earlier this week was that it They they beat expectations that's true But this has been a stochastic process The entire time right I mean it it Hasn't just gone down in a straight line And if you were to apply moving average To it you can see that it has been Generally trending down if you apply Seven-month moving average when you look At that it's been generally trending Down at this point though it is still Above the pre-pandemic levels it's Slightly above but if you were to go Over to the workbench and look at job Opening per unemployment level it is Still above the pre-pandemic U highs or Or pre-pandemic sort of lows right there But it it's it's actually at the Pre-pandemic high around 1.2 it's Currently at 1.22 so a lot of the excess That that all the money printing created Back in 2020 2021 in terms of job openings per Unemployment level that's been removed Now the question is there a Fed c car Rates before this really starts to get Below the prepandemic levels and I I Don't know the answer to that question

But that is ultimately the risk that we Face so we can continue on and and we Can look at um so here's job openings And I wanted to go through a different a Few different categories so Manufacturing job openings actually saw A big increase from 488,000 up to 63,000 um retail trade though continues To drop I mean retail trade is basically At the lows of 2020 which is kind of crazy to think About honestly Construction job Openings been moving down a little bit But not too not too bad compared to the Context of History government job Openings went up a lot um and then that I think is the main reason that we saw Job openings beat is because I mean look At this I mean government job openings Went from 96,000 to 1.08 million so a lot of the Job openings that you're seeing are Actually coming from from the government You can also see it in state and local As well right big big move up in state And local job openings from from 767,000 Up to 999,000 now if we look at Job quits uh You can see that it it increased Slightly generally speaking during Slowdowns in the economy you would Expect this to drop because fewer people Are going to quit their job if they're

Afraid of that they're not going to be Able to find a new one and you can sort Of look at this in terms of the job Quits rate and see it's basically been Flat um you know since late 2023 it Hasn't really moved um a whole lot Initial claims this is the one that Shows that layoffs aren't really as high As you might expect they are starting to Move up here but they also moved up Around this time last year right into Those summer months we saw it move up so I don't know if it's seasonality I don't If it's going to be something else but Initial claims are still relatively low Under the context of History right I Mean if you're talking about something Recessionary you would expect more so in The 300,000 range not still in the the Low to mid 200,000 range here we have Initial claims per state this is Non-seasonally adjusted so there is Quite a bit of noise I do find some Interest in looking at a few of the States like Nevada is is an interesting One to look at um at least for me and Then also uh California uh you I mean you can sort of See these subtle higher lows but also They've been putting in lower highs so We'll see which way it breaks here's an Initial claims map normalized by Population so this this way you know the Last time I showed you this chart it was

I don't believe it was normalized by Population now it's actually normalized By population so you can see where the Layoffs are actually occurring the most When normalized by population you can See that it's mostly out west and then Some up here in in say like Pennsylvania New Jersey and and um and and and and Vermont Massachusetts so the Massachusetts unemployment rate is low But when you normalize by population There are some initial claims coming in Uh that are pretty high so testing that We might start to see the unemployment Rate tick up in those States if you look At the number of states where say the There's a 30% rise in initial claims Over the last year it's currently at Only six relatively low now if you Change that to only 10% it's at 19 here's a map of the states where the Initial claims is Rising by about 30% Year-over year it's only about you know Seven states right now not not very many States um now if you scroll this back to 2023 late 2023 I mean you can see that It did start to turn orange but then it It it got back to normal now again it's Just a a slow process but there's Nothing you know when you look at this It certainly does not look like what you Saw during the the financial crisis or You know the um the dot crash right it's Still relatively muted at this point

Now continued claims that's the one that While initial claims haven't really Moved that that much higher continued Claims are still they they never really Went down and they they moved up a lot Last year and the year before that maybe Not as much um the year before that a Little bit but they're starting to move Up again and this is again this is Suggesting that it's getting harder and Harder for people to find a new job if They don't have a job if they do get Laid off for some reason those people Are having a harder and harder time Finding a job here's continued claims Per state um again you know pretty low Levels that we were starting at in in 2020 this is the one I I thought it was Interesting to look at Nevada not Initial Claims right like normally during normal Economic expansion times you would Expect this to put in lower highs and Lower lows like we saw back over here But really ever since 2022 it's been Putting in higher highs and higher lows Kind of similar thing you saw leading up To to the financial crisis and the dot Crash right where it was putting in Higher highs and higher lows and you can See this was taking place for a long Time right and then finally it it it the The market Cared and then maybe we'll also look at

At at California also you're seeing like look At a normal economic expansion time Lower highs and lower lows in continued Claims in California look at what we've Been doing since 2022 higher lows and Higher highs look at what was going on Back in 2005 2006 2007 right higher Highs and higher lows and in the crash High and also in the 19 1980 late 1980s Early 1990s that's the thing like the The the labor market is loosening up It's just it's anyone's guess as to when The Market's going to actually care one Interesting thing I've seen a lot of People talk about is that you know There's there's been this Divergence of Bitcoin in the stock market and I know You know my views of of comparing this Cycle to 2019 have have been met with a lot of Criticism but do remember that it was in Fact in 2019 when we saw the exact same Thing happen right so overlay the SNP With Bitcoin and you will see here in 2019 Bitcoin started to go down but the Stock market still went up for a while Right so we have seen this before it's Not like this is That unin you know it's not like it's That crazy to see the Divergence we've Seen this Divergence before Sometimes you you might even think a Crypto is sort of a leading it it's

Giving a warning sign to the stock Market but the stock market has a much Longer lag associated with it and maybe The stock market has a longer lag Because there's all this money that's Just going into it passively into 401ks Where you don't have look I know a lot Of us you know a lot of us in the Cryptoverse are you know eat eat breathe Bitcoin right and a lot of you guys I'm Sure have have automatic DCA set up now Imagine that but the whole country is is Sort of doing this passive thing with 401ks I think that's the reason why Crypto might be a leading indicator it Shows the weakness there before it's Realized in the stock market last cycle It took nine months for it to play out And so far Bitcoin had a local top in March so you have April May June July only about four months in fact if It were to take the same amount of time As it did last cycle which is probably a Dubious thing to even think about Considering the last cycle we had a Recession induced by a pandemic but if It were it would mean not playing out Until Q4 of this year right around the Time that the unemployment rate might Start to top out in terms of the un uh You know some of those metrics we were Looking at earlier maybe not the Unemployment rate topping out but some Of the metrics reaching Extremes in

Terms of the rate of Change now if we go back here's a Continued claims map normalized by Population also showing you California Minnesota I in California 1% of almost 09 it's 98% of the population continue Claims now look at Texas it's 0.5% like in North Dakota 0.25% Washington 75 gives you an idea of Of where the you know if if if you have A friend in California and they're Saying the job the job market is awful And then you have a friend in Massachusetts and they're saying I don't Know what they're talking about they're Wrong they're both right it's just their Right for where they live if you're In North Dakota you're probably Experiencing something completely Different than someone who lives in Texas or California or New York right if You're in Maine why are you thinking That the job Market's going to be the Same in Oregon or in South Carolina or In Kansas right and if you're not in the United States if you're in Europe or or Asia I mean Europe the Europe labor Market has been even weaker than the United States right so everything that You're looking at on the United States Stuff it's probably worse in Europe the US Economy is a beast over long periods of Time and we really is and you know they

Say don't bet against the us over long I Mean I I think that's true right you Don't want to bet against the us over a Long period of time that doesn't mean The US can't occasionally have Recessions right but over the long haul It I don't think it makes sense to bet Against the United States um number of States where the percentage Year-over-year continued claims is Rising this is one that we saw go up a Lot late last year into October what was Interesting about October that was Exactly when the 10year yield topped out Right and and the 10year yield has Actually topped out in October of the Last two years right if you look at October of 2022 the 10e yield topped and Then October of 2023 the 10 year yield Topped so what happens if we see the Same thing in 2024 we will in fact find Out And here's the the the map of um the Number of states where the continue Claims is is 30% or more so again not Not all that concerning at the current Time um based on what you would know a Recession would would theoretically look Like Highers this was one that continues to Drop although this month it actually Went up slightly but normally in Slowdowns in the economy you can see That new highers really slow down a lot

Because people just aren't going to take On the risk as many workers if they're Afraid they're going to have to even lay People off but you can also look in Manufacturing hires and see that it's Been in a downtrend non- durable goods Downtrend retail trade downtrend right I Mean again it just does fed pivot soon Enough and I who knows who knows No we have some other Things here's the Kansas City fed labor Market conditions Index slowly going down not negative yet Though not negative here's the Kansas City fed labor market conditions Index slightly Negative right oh no it's not it's not Negative it's at 0.1 it's slightly Positive now I want to take a look at Um the Som Ru Som Ru recession indicator now I Believe in order for it to have Triggered this month it would have had To have come in at like 4.4% or or Something the reason is because it's Basing its reference point on a 3mon Moving average over the last 12 months Now if you go look at the unemployment Rate and you go back 12 months right so It's currently we just got the data Point I guess it actually hasn't come in On on trading view but suppose that it Had and suppose we're out in May or We're getting the data point for June I

Mean go back to June of 202 three and You can see that it was already off its Lows now apply a a moving average right Apply 3-month moving average to it which Is what it uses um and Here you can see that the low for the 3-month SMA of the unemployment rate was 3.5% but because now we're past that We're at more than a year out from that Our reference point is going to be June Of 2023 which was at 3.5 5 6% so that's Why it's going to be harder for the I I Think there's a good chance the Su R Will trigger but it's going to be harder For it to trigger because now the Reference point is is going up for a Long time the reference point was just Kind of going down or sideways now the Reference point is going up it doesn't Mean it can't trigger it just means you Have to have a big number to really Cause it to trigger and and and you know When we get the next data point we're Going to be comparing it to 3.6% as opposed to you know 3.56 or 3.57 Whatever Right so when you look at at the sum Rule it's getting pretty close right I Mean you know 05% is the trigger it's at 043 it's getting pretty close but it's Not there yet now the S rule was not Developed at the state level but we Actually do have it at the state level On on the website right in Alabama you

Can see that it is triggered in Arizona You can see that it has not triggered Well it did but then now it hasn't again It's untriggered right California it Triggered um District of Delaware not Triggered yet District of Columbia has not yet Triggered if someone mentions something About Bitcoin dominance going down today I'm going to get triggered um Kansas not Yet triggered right so some states we See the S rule has triggered some states It has not the number of states where The S rule has triggered is at around 21 here here's a map of where the Su Rule has Triggered Right 21 states right 21 States here's the coincident economic Activity index I like to look at the Year-over-year percentage change still Positive uh 2.81% we've gone on a long Time those are my views those aren't Even My Views that's just the market Right that's just the data that's just I Just all I did was report to you the Data You know don't take it out with me take It out with the data some states things Are bad some states things are good in Order to really have a full-blown Recession you'd have to see that virus In the labor market expand to all

Sectors or most sectors of the country We haven't yet seen that yet but again a Lot of this goes back to you know to Risk assets and and you know obviously There there's Bitcoin um and the altcoin Market but this for for Bitcoin this is Now a lower low right um and this is Something that you know we really should Pay some attention to um because in 2019 This is what we saw happen right we saw This same idea of of putting in these Slightly lower highs and and and the and Sort of putting in these slightly lower Lows I guess there was a low here and And it held that for a while but then Eventually you know we saw the floor Fall out and we took out this low we Came to the bottom we got to pop back up And then we came back down and put in a Lower low before getting another move Higher so you know when you look at at This sort of Chart yes I mean theoretically you could Draw it out like this and yes maybe you Know maybe we get some form of a of a of A bounce or so looks like we already Went to 53k but look guys at the end of The day you know my views on bitcoin Have always been that we go up long Enough to wreck the Bears and then we go Down long enough to wreck the Bulls and When you see that happen while Bitcoin Is is still well off well off its lows The altcoin market is not and then that

Is the issue that i' I've been talking About for a long time if you were to Look at at total three look at this Right look at total three compared to Bitcoin and this is the issue for Altcoins is that they're not I mean They're not even that they didn't really Get that much of a rally off their low Compared to Bitcoin and that's how in 2020 when we Did get a recession altcoins actually Put in a new low yes it was induced by a Pandemic but the the reason for it isn't So important to me it's just you know if You have a recession then alts usually You know you you would probably see alts Put on a new low if you have a soft Landing then they might just put in a Higher low Bitcoin has a lot more Flexibility it is well off of its low Right so it's got a lot more wiggle room Than the altcoin market does and also as It relates to alt Bitcoin Pairs right if you look at all Bitcoin Pairs they are slowly starting to break Down right Slowly not that different from 2019 if You guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out the sale On into the cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse decom got a lot of Great charts on the website not only for Bitcoin but also for the altcoin market

Too uh I do think that I mean I know a Lot of people call me a Bitcoin Maxi I Do think that Bitcoin sort of exists Outside of the the altcoin market it's Kind of you should almost treat it as a Different asset class um but I also Think the altcoin market is is it can be A great way to to grow your wealth if Done responsibly I just think that you Know when you're in a Bitcoin dominance Multi-year rally why not just stick Mostly with Bitcoin and and let the Altcoin market work its way out while People sort of argue about which ones Are holding up the best um but that's Where we stand others Bitcoin also in Fact looks a lot like 2019 putting in One low after another and you can see That ultimately it it it came down and Bottomed out in August of 2019 but it Didn't bottom until after the FED cut Rates not before if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe a thumbs Up again check out the sale on into Cryptoverse premium at inth cryptoverse Decom as I was mentioning tons of Different charts check those out crypto Charts macro chart charts Equity charts We do have the sale running lock and low R I will see you guys next time bye

Coinbase
OUR TAKE

Coinbase is a popular cryptocurrency exchange. It makes it easy to buy, sell, and exchange cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Coinbase also has a brokerage service that makes it easy to buy Bitcoin as easily as buying stocks through an online broker. However, Coinbase can be expensive due to the fees it charges and its poor customer service.

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