The Labor Market

Hey everyone thanks for jumping back Into the Macroverse today we're going to talk About the most recent jobs report if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out intothe Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse doccom it is the first week Of the month and during that first week We get a ton of Labor Market data we Also get some labor market data Throughout the month but most of it Comes in this first week and so I like To just go through all the different Charts there's really no point in Looking at it any more frequently than Once a month and you could even argue That once a month is probably too Frequent in of itself but I did want to Provide an update there have been some Some new developments recently so we Will go through those in this video so We're just going to go through the list Because there's a lot of different Things to look at here we've actually Added some new charts as well uh so I Want to go through some of those too um But essentially we have unemployment Statistics employment statistics job Openings and turnovers uh we also have Population sentiment labor indices and Income distribution as well as many Other things but we're going to go

Through a lot of these charts it's going To be somewhat dry going to be pretty Boring it just is what it is right um so The unemployment level has gone up 157,000 to 6.65 million now this here has allowed The unemployment rate to finally hit 4% And also we're going to talk a little About the number of job openings per Unemployed worker too once we get two Job openings but this is gone up if you Were to look at it for this is for Everyone greater than 16 years old if You were to isolate it to say only 20 to 24 year olds you can see that it's Really starting to spike and I think This makes a lot of sense when you think About it especially as we go through More of the data but I'll give you a Preview one of the things we've noticed Is that layoffs have actually been Relatively low and that is Representative by the fact that initial Claims are still really low but Continued claims are somewhat elevated Still and so the implication of that and Especially considering that the labor Market is continuing to to slowly loosen Up there's not a lot of people getting Hired compared to a couple years ago uh There's not a lot of people quitting but A lot of a lot of companies are still Holding on to their workers and so the People this would hit the hardest would

Be the younger people right the people That are just now trying to get a job And those people are likely having a Hard time just finding one considering That you know highes continues to drop But that'll be something we look at a Little bit later you can go to Unemployment level by reason for Unemployment you can look at Job losers It actually went down a little bit but Still generally trending higher as you Can see remember the unemployment rate Often moves in a in a nonlinear fashion Okay it can slowly go up at first but The longer that you know that rate cuts Are delayed we ultimately run the risk Of it of it going up much quicker again It hasn't made that move yet this has Been a fairly systematic and slow Process and it's fine as long as it does Not accelerate if you were to look at Job losers on temporary layoff um also Slightly down this week we have Permanent job losers that has continueed To move up and that's up another 8,000 This week to 1.76 million you can even Look at new entrance to the labor force And this is what I was talking about Right new people to the labor force are Having a much harder time getting a job And if you think about it you know with With with new people graduating college And whatnot and hires continuing to go Down this is not the the easiest job

Market to sort of get into right again If you already have a job and and your Company is holding on to a lot of those People again you you've seen the Headlines about layoffs be that as a may I mean layoffs are a normal part of of Any time of the business cycle and so They have been relatively low all things Considered and we'll see that with Initial claims but you're seeing people That say don't have jobs they're having A hard time finding a new one or just Finding one at all right and here's new Entrance to labor force that's actually Gone up gone up quite a bit here just Over the last few months um you also Have reentrance to the labor force the People who left it and now are trying to Come back that is starting to to to go Back up a little bit as well now we go To the unemployment rate and we did of Course hit the 4% Milestone it's still Not I I think it was actually 3.96% so it just rounds up to 4% still Relatively low given the historical Record right but again it's not About the the absolute value it's it's About the rate of change right it's About the rate of change and that's Ultimately what we're interested in Right now if you were to look at Month-over-month change here month over Monon change of the unemployment rate You know it's been it increased 0.1% two

Months in a row now but again quarter Over quarter year over year it it is not You know it hasn't really made a a a Huge move at this Point if you were look at the Unemployment rate per state we're not Going to go through all these but again There there there's ways that you can Look at this chart that show you why There's so many different stories right There's so many different anecdotes from Some parts of the country the labor Market seems quite robust and strong and And you know like it's really hard to Get a job in fact there's places in the Northeast that still have really low Unemployment rate and in other places as Well if you look at something like Alabama you can see that it's just been Continuing to slowly go up if you flip That over to obviously California um um That one has you know has has been one Of the ones that has been the weakest in Terms of the labor market that Unemployment rate is up to 5.3% but the Counterpoint of course is That you could go to other areas of the Country and see basically the complete Opposite uh if you were to go look at The the Northeast Massachusetts I mean The unemployment rate hasn't really been Going up at all I mean it's down to 2.9% and it hasn't really turned the Corner and there's other places like

That as well so it it really depends on On what state you're in um here's New York for example that one's actually you Know we saw it go up last year but it's Actually been decreasing you know really Ever since this year began and so it it Goes to show just how how you know Region Specific that that the the labor market Is places in the Northeast are still Doing relatively okay but then you have Out west and then places in the South That are are starting to show some of That Weakness in fact if you were to look at The number of states where the Unemployment rate is going up over the Last six months we're currently at Around 19 now what you'll notice is that In 2022 there was a wave of number of States where the unemployment rate had Risen over the last six months and it And it essentially started off at zero And it went all the way up to about 31 Or so before coming back down but this Move started in in the summer right you Can see that this move up it started in In the summer and then we came back down And then it it put in a higher low at Five states remember the low the first Low was Zero then we had a high at 31 And then a higher low at five and then We had a higher high at 45 and then it's coming back down kind

Of the same time it came back down last Year as well last year we actually saw It bottom in the the the the the month Of April right and we have the April Data point here and so the question is Is is it going to do something very Similar Where it turns the corner this summer And goes back up where essentially you Get you know three waves right you get Your first wave of of Unemployment rising in some states back In 2022 that was sort of the getting out All the excess uh the you know the the Obvious excess in the labor market 2023 still getting out some of that Excess but starting to inflict a little Bit of pain and we we'll see where it Goes in in 2024 if it puts in another Higher low and continues to go up it's Going to be obviously dependent on Monetary policy you know and while we Have seen places like the ECB the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada they've already lowered interest Rates by 25 basis points we still Haven't seen um the FED follow suit and Right now the market is still thinking That the FED is is still several months Away with the most likely outcome at This time I still believe is is not Until September so we'll see if that Changes but that's where it currently is Now do you remember where I said that

The labor market is very region specific This is a really interesting map so this Map shows it it it colors the states Orange that have a higher unemployment Rate today than they did six months ago And so this chart kind of shows how it's Almost like a virus right like it it Hits some parts of the Country sort of unevenly you know like Out West the the unemployment rate has been Going up right I mean you can see Washington's at 4.8 Oregon's at 4.2 California's at 5.3 you go up to the Northeast and they're at 31 26 21 New York's up at 42 but Massachusetts is at 29 um Pennsylvania's at 34 New Jersey's Getting a little higher at 47 but and and Delaware is at 39 you can See up here the labor market doesn't Look so bad but out west it it it Doesn't look that great And if you go in the South it's sort of A mixed bag but you can see that that it Is starting to go up in in some of the In some of these Southern States in the Sort of out out in Colorado if you're Looking at like to say like the Kansas And Missouri sort of the Midwest region Um Indiana Ohio Kentucky starting to see Some signs there but there's there's Whole regions of the country where the Unemployment rate has not gone up over The last six months and I I really do

Think that that explains a lot of the Discrepancies that you hear right you Know you'll hear people out in in in Tech out in California say that the job Market's absolutely awful and that they Can't find a job but then you'll hear The exact opposite from maybe people up In the Northeast and and this kind of Shows how you know when you raise rates Industries are are you know exhibit Different levels of sensitivity to those Interest rates you know some interest Rate some like high interest rates could Hit some sectors like the tech sector a Lot harder than it might hit other Sectors and that's why you you sort of See it not match what you're hearing From different places okay I think this This chart does a really good job of of Illustrating why anecdotes change so Much from one region of the country to Another we could also look at an Alternative unemployment rate measure uh There's obviously U1 which is just Greater than 15 weeks that actually tis Back up to 1.4% um you could look at at U2 this is Just job losers still slowly going up But not so still not so bad it hasn't Really reached you know sort of a Parabolic uh move at this point and then You can also look at things like u4 Which is unemployed plus discouraged Workers and kind of see very similar

Patterns right across most of these Things people not in the labor Force um these sorts of charts I think It's probably best viewed on Year-over-year percentage changes and That's currently at around 7% now we're Going to go over to employment Statistics and first we're going to Start off with the labor force Participation rate it actually dropped Slightly which I imagine is not Necessarily something that the FED would Like to see I think they'd like to see More people um you know more people Participating but and and we can look at It for you know for different areas we Could look at it for say 16 to 19 year Olds and see that it's really been tring Up for you know for basically a decade Now um now we're going to go take a look At the civilian force or civilian Labor Force Level that actually dropped by About 250,000 looking at a year overy year Percentage change you can see it is Dropping and it's now down to about 0.545 Per. if we were look at the unemployment Level this is kind of you know is Puzzling for a lot of people because you Have two surveys right you have the Establishment survey and the household Survey if you look at the establishment Survey it still looks relatively robust

Right if you look at a month over Monon Percentage change it's been moving up by About 0.1 to 0.2% month over month for Quite a long period of time and and from This perspective it looks pretty okay Right even a year-over-year percentage Change has it all the way up at 1.77% still a relatively healthy level All things considered now when you Change it to household it tells a Completely different story where it Dropped 48,000 and if you look at a month over Month per percentage change of that you Can see that it has been increasingly Negative recently it actually went down Um even more late last year now it's Interesting because you know you can see If you look at the year-over-year Percentage change the last one was Obviously a lot healthier when you look At the establishment survey but this Survey is actually not even that far off Of zero 2% just looking at it in terms Of figures year over-year only What is this let me persons only 376,000 new new jobs right according to To the the household Survey I mean that's getting pretty Close to negative but again it it goes Against what the establishment survey is Saying so one thing that I I think is is Somewhat helpful is to say all right Well what if we try to remove our bias

Okay and say all right I don't know if I Should believe the establishment survey I don't know if I should believe the Household survey what if we say why Don't we just combine them okay and say You know what we'll wait them equally And just do that okay and and I think That might be sort of the the best way To go about it so we're going to go over Here and we have um we have both surveys We're going to we're going to add them Up and we're going to divide by two okay So we have the employment level survey Household household survey and the Establishment survey this is M1 and M2 We're going to add M1 and M2 divide by Two evaluate that and then you get this Chart and then we're going to isolate Just that and then also show you know Where it had previously turned negative Before these are these graci regions These recessions and then if you zoom in You can see that it is slowing down Right it is slowing down and actually This last month was a decrease but again The process for it to actually Completely play out is a very very long Process right the business cycle takes Place over Years okay and so um but I I do think You know if you if you waight them Equally The Establishment survey and the Household survey and you say you know What I don't know which one's more

Accurate we're just going to take the Average this is what it looks like it's Been increasing for the most part Starting to potentially Plateau here and This is probably one of the reasons why You see some some banks Some central Banks like out of the out of Europe uh The ECB and and the Bank of Canada They're probably looking at pretty Similar data in their own in their own Areas and thinking they need to cut even Though inflation really hasn't durably Come back down to their target they're Probably just looking at the labor Market and seeing some weakness and so They're trying to cut because they Recognize there are long and variable Lags with monetary policy and so this is Something that is is definitely Worthwhile uh to continue to follow and We will continue to talk about this in The um in the coming months so let's get Back to what we were talking about Previously so we just went through this Chart the employment level chart now We're going to go over to non-farm Private payroll uh employment level and This is one that still has been Relatively robust if you look at the Year-over-year percentage change it's Currently at 1.8% now you can break this down into Different categories different sectors And look at construction and see that

It's it's still adding employment uh uh Pretty well so far you could look at Financial activities and see very Similar things manufacturing I think Looks a bit different this is one that Hasn't been doing uh nearly as well and In fact if you were to take a Year-over-year change of this uh it's Actually been negative since June of 2023 we'll take a look at total Temporary help service employees Help Services employees this is one that's Really been dropping uh ever since March Of 2022 which is basically when the FED Started raising rates right so the FED Started raising rates you know that that March I believe of 2022 and ever since Then total um temporary Help Services Employees has been dropping from high of 3.18 million down to 2.73 million today A year-over-year percentage change shows That it's actually been negative since Really the end of 2022 so you're seeing A lot of like normalization in the labor Market multiple job holders this is Always an interesting one to look at it Continues to slowly go up but again it's Not a it's a stochastic process it's not There's if you look at context history It doesn't just go straight up or Straight down but it does tend to to Generally increase with occasional Occasionally you get a a recession and Then you'll see it you'll see it go down

This is a new chart that we've added and I'm not going to spend a ton of time on It but it just shows uh job postings on Indeed in the United States and and Essentially you know it sort of Normalizes it based on on where it was Back in um sort of pre pandemic and and You know you can see it for total right Now it's at 112 again sort of the the Baseline would be pre- pandemic it would Be 100 right so 100 corresponds to pre- Pandemic right now it's about 12% or so Above the pre-pandemic level for job Postings on indeed but that's actually Total listings some of the some of the Different categories look a lot Different right so if you were to go to Uh accounting for instance you can see That it's actually at around 14% above The pre-pandemic level um if you were to Look At industrial engineering you can see That it's below the pre-pandemic level At 92 to 93 if you look at mathematics Which I like looking at that was my Major in undergrad um it's actually at 78 so you know you can you can certainly See that that different areas have been Hit harder you know uh some sectors seem Fine while other sectors seem like you Know they've they've gone below the Pre-pandemic levels and they don't Really show any signs of recovery at This point uh perhaps we could go look

At management this is one that has Really started to fall off a cliff Recently um it had sort of leveled out Here really ever since March of 2023 Until March of 2024 but ever since then It started to really drop here and now It's it's nearly at the prepandemic Level marketing is is always an Interesting one to check in on that's Also below pre pandemic levels so I mean You can see that a lot of the excess That the FED has been concerned about it Is getting removed right it is getting Removed and where the risk is is do they Wait you know do they pivot soon enough To sort of slowly reverse some of these Trends before they have to go into Outright panic mode right and that sort Of is the question and has been the Question for a long time and I think a Lot of people sort of prematurely think That that if it hasn't happened by a Certain point then it won't but I would Say look until they actually start to Cut and even when they cut right there's Still a risk there there there still is A risk that that we have to contend with With um and and we'll have to you know We'll have to see if they if they you Know when they cut how much they cut by I imagine 25 basis points isn't going to Be enough whenever they do decide to Start a cut but who knows maybe maybe it Will be um sort of slowly 25 basis

Points like what the ECB and and the Bank of Canada is doing now job openings Um this is sort of like the thing on Indeed but it's you know just sort of Looking at the uh the data that were're Given um uh via uh the government job Openings total nonfarm back at 8.06 Million still above the pre-pandemic Highs of around 7 to 8 million but it is Dropping uh total private has been Dropping quite a bit you know one of Those charts we just looked at on indeed We saw it start to really drop uh you Know this year starting in like March And you can see that this is also Reflected in total job openings um in The private sector it's it's really Starting to drop down here manufacturing This is one that that kind of looks like The inflation chart if you think about It like inflation kind of came down in In the summary of 2023 and then it's Just been going sideways for about a Year and then now you can see that that Total manufacturing job openings have Finally gone lower than where they were Over the last year or so you can see They finally have gone lower down to 516 Th000 retail trade is one that has has Been struggling the most uh the last Time excluding the pandemic that retail Trade job openings were at these levels You know we're all the way back in like 20 14 um so I I think the hard part is

That is that you know tighter monetary Policy affects some Industries a lot More than it affects others and you know It's it's unfortunate that if you're if You find yourself in one of the Industries that's more affected by it And you're just sort of waiting for Lower rates it's unfortunate because you Know you just have to keep on waiting And waiting and waiting because there's Other sectors that the interest rates The hikes haven't had as big of an Effect on um and then we can look at at At leisure and Hospitality job openings Again a lot of these are just slowly Going down job quits level uh actually Went back up which I imagine is not Something the FED would want to see Because I M they they they want to see The labor market loosen up to reduce Wage inflation uh but but quits actually Went back up this last month this is the Same thing looking at the job quits rate It's been about 2.2% for several months Now now initial claims this is the this Is what you look at to sort of say hey Look you know I know there's been a lot Of headlines for layoffs but initial Claims are still relatively low Keep in mind they have started to go up Recently but they also went up last year Around this time you know and they Ultimately ended up topping out about Mid June or so so yes it is possible

That initial claims go up if it's going To be different than last year you would Need to see it continue to stay higher Rather than sort of just fall back down At the end of the summer so so far Everything we've seen with initial Claims is relatively seasonal of course That could change we also have things Like initial claims per state obviously This is not seasonally adjusted but Thing that I like to do is kind of do The same thing that we did with um you Know with the unemployment rate six Months previously and just look at a map And and you know we're going to come up With better ways to visualize this map But it shows you initial claims um and You can sort of look you know where They're the lowest where they're the Highest obviously they're the highest in California but I I think we need to make Some changes to this because it's going To be higher especially in in states That have higher you know more larger Populations so we I think we do need to To actually normalize this and some way But this is what it looks like right now You can look at the number of states Where the percentage year-over-year Initial claims is rising we saw it Spike Up in in mid 2023 and then it came back Down I usually think adding like a a Long-term moving average like a seven we SMA is probably more helpful to look at

These things so you can see it's sort of Off the lows came back down and we'll See you know we'll see what it does from Here continued claims this is one that Had had moved up a while back but then It's just been flat at around 1.8 Million or so continued claims per state Uh continued claims map this one shows You how you know some of these states Definitely have more continued claims Than than others right you're actually Seeing more continued claims up in New York and Pennsylvania again it's not the Best way to visualize this because it's Not normalized to the state's population But hopefully in future videos we'll Have something like that and then Finally for this area we can look at the Number of states where the percentage Year-over-year change uh is above a Certain threshold so if you say above 30% it's actually relatively low right Now at only at only five states if you Change this to say only 10% then it's it's actually currently Around 23 states where the Year-over-year percentage change of Continued claims is more than 10% now Earlier I said that you know highers Have actually been dropping quite a bit And this this chart shows that and That's why you saw that category of of Younger people say 20 to 24 year olds Are having a harder time finding a job

And it's because the the companies that Already have a lot of the workers They're sort of hoarding them and Holding on to them and not laying them Off as as as much but they're not Necessarily hiring a lot of new people And and that is reflective in the fact That hires are actually back below uh The pre-pandemic levels right so you Know there's less hires today 5.64 Million today than there was pre Pandemic of 6 million and that's why Again younger people are having a harder They're sort of contributing to the Unemployment rate more recently because They're just having a hard time finding A job because fewer and fewer companies Are actually hiring okay still we Haven't really seen the turn in the Business cycle where the unemployment Rate really starts to accelerate it has Hit 4% it is getting relatively High Based on where it was you know a while Back of 3.4 based on the historical Record it's still at a low level and um And until you start to see layoffs in Mass it won't you know it won't increase Parabolically once you start to see Layoffs happen sort of in Mass that's Where you might actually see the Unemployment rate uh start to go up a Lot Quicker um we could also look at at at Some of the LA labor indices we have the

Kansas City fed labor market conditions Index um that's actually down now at 0 537 so it continues to slowly drop down Off of these you know off of some pretty High levels right and I mean you can see What happened the last two business Cycles um you know as it you know it Sort of slowly went down over here and Then at some point it just sort of fell Off the cliff but we haven't reached That point um I just it's hard to know How far away we are right it's really Hard to know and that's sort of a Guessing game for the FED as to whether They can achieve a soft Landing or or Not um and then we also have the Kansas City fed labor market conditions index That's actually turned back up a little Bit uh recently There's also some other some other Things that we can look at and and those Are things like the um like the S rule The Som rule recession indicator it Actually stayed flat this month and you Might say well why is that why did it Stay flat and it makes sense because Remember it's based on the 3month moving Average of the unemployment rate low Only going back 12 months and now if you Go back 12 months we're actually beyond The point where the 3-month SMA was at 3.5% now to like 3.53% so despite the fact that the Unemployment rate went up the S rule you

Know this didn't actually change and so For it to actually trigger next month For it to actually trigger next month The unemployment rate would have to come In at around I calculated this earlier I Think 4.31% so if it came in at 4.31% next Month then the sum rule I believe would Actually trigger but if it only comes in At say 4.1 or 4.2 then it it still won't Just because you know your reference Point is is 12 months ago and 12 months Ago that was when the labor market Started to slowly turn up so just sort Of a caveat if you're not familiar with That you can also look at the Som R Recession indicator at the state level It wasn't designed at the state level But you can see that some states have Already triggered the S rule where Essentially you know the your the Unemployment rate is is is um .5% off of The low 3-month estimate low of the last 12 months some states like Alabama have Already triggered that also California Triggered it obviously a while back Whereas other states as we mentioned Earlier like Massachusetts are nowhere Near triggering it and so what you can Do is you can look at the number of States where the Su rule has triggered And see that it's actually moved up off The lows of zero and now it's just kind Of right at around 21 or so so about 21

States in the country have have Triggered the Som R again it wasn't Wasn't made for that and then here is a Map of the states that the where the th Rule has actually been triggered and Again it shows you how it's sort of like A virus right it starts in some areas And it slowly spreads out um and and Ideally what I'd like to do in the Future as well is has have a timeline of This so you can sort of scroll through It and see what it looked like you know Six months ago what it looks like today What it looks like you know as as time Goes on but again this explains why some Areas of the country still have a really Great labor market and then other other Parts of the country country uh are are Struggling a bit More I believe that's mostly it uh that I I wanted to talk about in this video Again it's already been uh kind of a Long video um I'm not even really sure What the reaction of Bitcoin has been Since then so so so Bitcoin is has taken A bit of a hit here it's backed down Around $69,000 and you know we've talked about This outcome before quite a bit um and We'll see you know we'll see what Bitcoin does here at these at sort of These range highs hasn't been able to Break out just yet and so I mean it's Possible that it evolves into a 2019

Scenario um but again I don't have a Crystal ball we'll just have to see uh If it if it if it gets rejected here at The range highs or if it musters up the Strength to go to go through I do think That with the unemployment rate at 4% it Is going to start to get the attention Of of some politicians right I mean Again it's still a historically low Level but and I I think a lot of people Sort of think that politician want it to Be a certain way but if you think about It I don't even know if it's as obvious Anymore right I mean like you know what Would you prefer if you're a politician And you're you're trying to make it seem Like things are going well would you Would you prefer the unemployment rate To stay below 4% therefore not really giving the FED a Great reason to lower rates or would you Want the unemployment rate to go north Of 4% so that you have a reason for the FED to cut prior to the elections um and So I I think it's not as obvious I mean I I I think that you could obviously Make a case either way but I think there Is a compelling view that you know there There has to be some element of of Politicians that would like for the FED To lower rates before the elections um And and one way you do that is that you You start to see some of this softer and Softer data and we've actually seen a

Lot of softer data over the last two Months um you know and some of it is is Is you know just surveys and that kind Of stuff fluffy stuff not like hard data But some of them have have started to Show some warning signs very very slowly Like the Chicago uh PMI I believe that Came in re really really low but then You have other things like non-farm Payroll today that completely blew out Expectations out of the water um Again The Establishment survey looks really Great the household survey looks really Bad who do you believe I don't know you Probably just average them together to Try to get the best unbiased view of What's actually Happening and if we actually pull up the The unemployment rate you know this is What it looks like right now right and Um I'm not really sure why this one is Looking like that but this is what it Looks like and it is slowly I mean it Really is slowly starting to move up Here yeah it's a slow process right but And these circles I believe were put Here because um we had a moving average Sort of talk about them so let me see if I can pull up a simple moving Average and all I'm going to do is is Add on a Um what do I want to add On well no that'll that'll be a monthly I want to do weekly so let's see if we

Can go over to so let me just do a a a Shorter term moving average let's go to A 20 20 month right so here's a a 20mon SMA um and we're going to change this Color so it's a little bit brighter for Everyone to see it so yeah I mean you Can see that a lot of times when the Unemployment rate goes north of the um The 20 the 20mon moving average um it Doesn't really slow down for a while and I mean you can kind of see that's what's Happening I Right it it is happening um I think Sometimes you know we look at these Charts and it it just seems like it all Plays out instantaneously but when you Actually look at at this chart you have To remember this chart's going back to 1948 right even this period right over Here I mean that Took two years right so I mean from Where this you know really started to Get into this trough over here it's been About about two years or so so it takes A long time to play out and obviously a Lot of things can happen in the markets In during that time um but that is where We currently stand uh with the market or The labor market and you know we we'll Of course put out more videos on on on On on crypto and and the effects on that Obviously you guys know My Views I I Generally think that that the uh the

Bitcoin dominance will will go a lot Higher and that altcoins will bleed back To bitcoin until we actually get back to Looser monetary policy some people would Rightfully point out that are we not Getting there because we did see the Bank of Canada and we did see the ECB Cut rates we still haven't seen the FED Cut rates and also remember last cycle Bitcoin dominance did not even top until Two months after the FED cut so it Wasn't like they it wasn't like Dominance topped the minute the FED cut Rates it it topped two months after the FED cut rates and so we're still not There yet now I think there's a Compelling case to be made that the FED Might cut sooner than what the market is Currently expecting um but you know We'll just take it we'll take it one day At a time that'll wrap it up for this Video again if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe give video a Thumbs up and again check out into the Cryptos premium at intothe Crypt.of bye