The Labor Market

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Macroverse today we're going to talk About the most recent jobs report if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out into the Cryptoverse premium at intothe Crypt.of Town the first week of the Month which is when all these labor Reports come in and then by the second Week I just figured there wasn't really Enough change from that one month to the Next so we we just I just decided to Skip that month but it's been a couple Of months let's see what has changed Especially with the unemployment rate Hitting that 3.9% level again which it Just did this morning so the Unemployment level is at 6.49 million Which is a new cycle high back in October we hit 6.44 we just hit 6.49 so it is starting To creep up a little bit if you were to Apply a moving average to it you know I I I know late last year there were some Optimistic people that this was just Going to keep on coming back down but Again when the unemployment rate really Gets moving it doesn't really stop Moving until the FED pivots until Sometime after a Fed pivot so the bias In my opinion should be that the Unemployment level continues to go

Higher until there's some form of looser Monetary policy assuming that the the FED funds rate is above the neutral rate Our star which I think it is so because It's above the neutral rate the Unemployment level continues to go up Not monotonically right you do sometimes Get pullbacks but it is generally Starting to move higher and if you were To look at a year-over-year change of Something like this you can see it is It's positive right and it's been Positive uh for about a year now okay so It's been positive for for quite a long Period of time and we could break it Down into different categories I'm not Going to spend a lot of time looking at The different categories here is 16 to 19 year olds um it's been slowly moving Up actually a little bit of a pullback On this most recent month and then maybe We'll look at one more let's just say Greater than 25 years again it's just Been sort of a slow and steady climb Higher so now we're going to look at the Unemployment level by reason for Unemployment first of all you have job Losers so people that just are losing Their job you can see it has just been a Steady grind higher taking a 3month Moving average of it shows you that it Really has been moving up for all the 20 23 and now you know for all of 2024 so Far it just continues to slowly go up of

Course if you just look at it like this There's a lot of noise apply moving Average to it it really cuts through That noise this is a seven-month moving Average when you look at it like that I Mean you can really see that you know People are really starting to lose their Jobs here and while it might seem like It's going Slow it often does that kind of stuff I Mean a lot of times you'll see it kind Of start off slow and then pick up later On so just just be aware that that is Still happening uh you can look at Job Losers on temporary layoff that one has Gone up again this month it had had a Previous pullback over the last several Months but starting to move back up Again you can look at re-entrance to the Labor force this is always interesting To me because you know you're always Going to have people that are coming Into labor force which can also Contribute to the unemployment rate that Moved up a little bit and then you can Look at new entrance to the labor force As well and it actually saw a big move Down this past month but still again has Generally been trending higher you can Look at a 3month moving average of that And see you know it it really does just Simply look like it normally looks at This phase of the business cycle so a Lot of interesting things there now

We're going to look at the unemployment Rate so the unemployment rate is at 3.9% which the last time it was at 39 Was back in February okay so this data Again was for April not for um it's not May data it's we're getting it in May But it is for April and we talked a Little bit about looking at it over here Right February March April went down This time April actually went up so you Almost have to wonder if this is Starting to deviate from some of the Seasonality we saw last year and if Remember the April data point that we Got last year we got it in May and it Was it went down but the May data point That that we got in June so a month from Now it increased 3/10 so again next month could be a very Interesting month uh for the labor Market because we are approaching that 4% level we don't even have to get a 310 310 move like we did last year only a On10th move will get you to 4% now so The next Labor the next um unemployment Rate Number should be a pretty interesting One in about in about 1 month it does Seem like some of those layoffs are Starting to pick back up again um so This is the unemployment rate you can Also look at it for for various Categories we're not going to spend too Much time on that because we have a lot

To get through you can look at also the Unemployment rate per state right this Is kind of interesting because it it it Really does show how localized it is you Know like here you have Alabama and just you know going Alphabetically which is why we're Talking about Alabama 3% right it's Below the average cuz the average I mean The the the average the national average Is 3.9 you can see Alabama is at three But then go look at California it's at 5.3% California this this does start to Look a little recessionary right I mean Again the unemployment rate was 38 in 2022 and now it's 53 I mean it it's Still not quite parabolic which is why I Think the market has tried to discount It and not be too concerned about it but If you do enter into a more parabolic Phase then the market might start to pay Attention but again this just goes to Show you how how localized it is right California you have a lot of tech jobs And you know with the FED raising rates A lot of these tech companies a lot of Startups the only reason they are able To exist is because of low rates cheap Money once that is gone a lot of those Companies close down therefore it Affects a lot of the tech industry you Know you probably heard people call it Like a rolling recession where it's Hitting different sectors at various

Times and while the tech sector got hit Hard in 2022 and then you have various Sectors getting hit at various phases as Long as you're not having like all of Them getting hit at the same time then The market doesn't really care that much Right and and you know you could argue That it's just as people have called it A rolling recession it's kind of like And I've given this analogy before it's Kind of like when you play chess I'm Sure everyone watching this video uh Plays chess and is really good at chess Um I'm probably going to convert this Into a chess channel one day But if you think about it when you're Trying to Checkmate your opponent if you Create one Weakness they can defend that weakness Right throw all the resources at Defending it and say ha see you can't Checkmate me but if you create a second Weakness somewhere else that's when Things start to crumble okay so yes you Could argue you know it's sort of a Rolling slowdown where you get a Slowdown over here that lasts for a few Months and then one over in this Industry that lasts for a few months but Because they're not all happening Simultaneously the unemployment rate is Still doing Okay again how long will it take for Sort of that to reach the other all the

Other Industries at the same time that's Obviously a a great question but again This shows you and here's Colorado I Like to check in on Colorado because it Has also been moving up this last month That moved from 35 to 37 you know it's Getting I mean you can see like December It was 33 and then 34 and then 35 and Now 37 I mean it it is starting to pick Up right it is starting to pick up look At the District of Colombia that one Back in 2022 was at 4% now it's at 5.2% Also above the national average we could Go look at Florida which I think has Been pretty low it's actually been below The national average it's at 3.2% but it's starting to move up again It was flat for a long time and then the Last couple of months you know I mean Well at least it went from 3.1 and now It's all the way up to uh 3.2 so let's just take a look at a few More because the more that I go through The more likely it is to maybe hit your State that you're in Massachusetts um this is one that is Well below the national average and I I Like to check in on this one because There are some of these New England States that are are actually a lot a you Know well below the national average Right the national average is 39 Massachusetts is 29 and in fact it was 34 four back in October and it's been

Dropping a lot right and Massachusetts Is not the only one go look at at I Think Rhode Island is another good Example um Rhode Island no Rhode Island's not a good Example that one's actually back up to 4% I maybe it was Connecticut there was Another one in the Northeast that I Remember was still pretty low uh Connecticut's also pretty high 34 up to 4 five I I don't remember which one it Was Um I remember seeing to New England States Maine so Maine is is still pretty Low right it's only I mean it's up a Little bit recently but it is still only At 3.3% which is below the national Average um and then Texas Texas is Always one that's interesting to check In on because it's been relatively flat For a while right now it is at the National average of 39 but it's Basically been flat since for almost a Year now right the the unemployment rate In Texas has essentially not changed in A long time um which it does that Sometimes right it it it has previously Done that you can see in 2022 it was Relatively flat until we got out in Q3 And then it jumped from 38 to 41 um so Maybe it'll do something like that again This time I don't know but that's Another one that I think is worthwhile To keep an eye on and then maybe we'll

Just check in on on one more um New York New York is the one I want to check on So New York above the national average But it actually dropped this month from 44 to 43 okay okay so you can see how Like the economy is is very much you Know localized right I mean like you Could have a good economy in some states And a bad economy in other states you Could have a good labor market in you Know in Massachusetts but that doesn't Mean that it's great in California so again it's all about how Many how many different areas of Weakness do you have to have before the FED will finally pivot overall we know That the number of states with in Unemployment is going up but it's going Up in waves and let me show you what I Mean so if you look at the number of States where the unemployment rate is Rising and we're going to compare it Over the last half year so over the last 6 months you'll see that we're kind of Getting these waves where you get what Your first wave in 2022 and you can see That it tops out in Q4 right so this is the number of states That have a higher unemployment rate Than they did 6 months ago So in 2022 it topped out at 31 States in Q4 31 States in Q4 then it bottomed at Five States in

April right it bottomed at five states In Q2 let's just say Q2 so Q4 was the High Q2 was the low but then as you got Into Q3 and you guys you got into the Summer and then you went back into Q4 it Topped out again you see that over here It to topped out in Q4 here it topped Out in Q4 here in 2022 it topped out at 31 States that had a higher unemployment Rate compared to six months ago but in 2023 it topped out at 45 States than They had that that had Rising Unemployment compared to 6 months ago And you can see it's starting to go down Right I mean it's gone down to to 22 now Right that's actually a pretty big drop But again we saw the same thing happen Last year so I would be curious to see If this forms some type of a Bottom in Q2 before starting to turn back up one More time and maybe it's that third wave That finally gets the FED to Pivot you Know maybe that's what finally gets Their attention you get you know a third Wave then the economy finally starts to Show some cracks and then the FED takes Notice but so far I mean look I you have To give it to the FED I mean so far I Think they've done a good job of of Staying higher for longer it seems like Everyone else now believes higher for Longer which is why I think higher for Longer will likely it's we've been

Higher for longer right I mean it's been Higher for longer for a long time but be That as it may I I think that a year From now rates could be a good bit lower Than what the market currently thinks Just because when higher for longer gets Priced in companies start to lay people Off and then the FED is forced to Pivot Beforehand compan just didn't believe The fed or maybe a lot of companies Already had you know already had all These loans at lower rates and then now They have to refinance at a much higher Rate so now they actually have to cut Cost whereas in 2022 or 2023 they didn't Have to well in 2022 rates were still Relatively low until we got later on in The year but this is a great way I think To sort of view the labor market and to Kind of see like it it really does move Slowly and you know you get these waves In the labor market and I I do wonder if You're going to get sort of a third and Final wave in 2024 that maybe Peaks out At the end of the year kind of like we Saw the last two peak out at the end of The year but first you got to form a Bottom in the second quarter so we'll See if we can form a bottom over here in The second quarter um or not the next Thing I'd like to look at is alternative Unemployment rate measures so this is Like looking at greater than 15 weeks Unemployed this one really got started

Moving before a lot of the other Unemployment rate measures um but it's Actually been relatively flat for a While so there's not a whole lot of Inter things going on there you can look At Job losers again slow move up looking At a three Monon moving average the Trend is pretty clear but I mean it just It takes a long time while it often can Start off like a linear movement Eventually it theoretically goes Parabolic but the the time frame on that Is is again the business cycle takes a Long time to play Out we can also put look at people not In the labor force and maybe take a year Over-year Percentage change and see that it Actually went pretty negative over here In 2021 and ever since then it's mostly Been putting in higher lows now we're Going to go over to some of the Employment statistics so this is we just Went through some unemployment Statistics now we're going to look at The labor force participation rate so Again it's been slowly climbing really Ever since the pandemic the civilian Labor force level today came in yeah This came in today uh only increased by About 87,000 Um not a huge increase in fact if you Look at a month over month let's go look At quarter over

Quarter you can see that it's been Slowly putting in lower highs Essentially since 2022 looking at a Year-over-year Percentage change this is the lowest It's been in actually quite a while the Last time it was this low was all the Way back over here in 2021 at about 782 Per we can look at the employment level Um this is uh something that just came Out today you can see we have different Surveys of course as well but it Increased by 175,000 which I believe Came in below expectations look this is The establishment survey so when you Look at the establishment survey and you Look at say the year-over-year Um percentage change you can see that It's down to 1.8% okay if you look at a quarter over Quarter percentage change it is at4 61% Which is not still not the lowest it's Been but it is starting to drop here um And we can also pivot this over to the Household survey as well which was Showing a lot more weakness this last Month it actually went up a little bit Again looking at a year-over-year Percentage change there it's already Down pretty low in fact um at 3 29% so It's not even that far away from Potentially going negative so keep an Eye on the household survey uh when we Get that next month as well to see if

That in fact goes negative we can look At non-farm private payroll employment Uh this is total PR it again you're Going to want to look at a month over Month change or quarter over quarter Change or a year-over-year change to see Kind of what's going on there's just Been a lot of excess it's been slowly Moving down um but there's just been a Lot of excess this is total private you Could go look at some other sectors like Manufacturing um that's actually the Year-over-year change has been negative Total temporary help service employees Has been something that's also been Going down for quite a while uh kind of In line with prior economic slowdowns But because there's been a lot of Strength in other sectors you know it Hasn't been as much of a signal but it Does still continue to go down um and it Very well could turn into a signal If The Fed doesn't pivot it dropped another 164,000 this last month looking at a Year-over-year percentage change it's Been negative since late 2022 really With no signs of slowing down just yet I Mean it it just keeps on dropping right I mean a few months ago we did see an Increase um but again it just it just Continues to slowly drop and again it's Probably going to continue dropping Until the FED goes to to looser monetary Policy and then of course we can look at

Multiple job holders uh continues to be In a fairly macro uptrend really ever Since uh the Pandemic now we're going to look at job Openings all right so job openings is One of the ones that is a great way to Sort of see all the excess that's been Removed um while job openings has come Down a lot um we we've seen job openings Drop from around 12 million to about 8.5 Million we're still well above the Pre-pandemic levels But again it is it is starting to drop Quite a bit here um this is the lowest Print we've had so far this business Cycle and as long as the FED doesn't Pivot then this number is likely going To keep on going down again looking at a Year-over-year change you can see it's Negative like prior recessions but also Unlike prior recessions you know prior Recessions we were we essentially only Had about you know four to 5 million job Openings today even though it's fallen Off the peak quite a bit we're still at 8.2 million um the prepandemic level was Around 7 million or so so again I mean It just goes to show there's been so Much excess that the FED has had to just Get out that's what you do right you Know in 2022 2023 you first sort of get Get all the excess off but the longer The that monetary policy stays tight Then you start to get you know then you

Really start to hit some um you you I Guess you kind of get inste it just Being excess you get closer to the Bone Right um first it's getting all the fat Off the bone but then once you get to The Bone um then companies really start To have to have to make you know Important decisions about who they're Going to keep who they're not um and That's kind of the issue is how do you You know when does the FED pivot do they Pivot now and potentially risk a second Wave of inflation do they pivot six Months from now and and you know with Risk a deflationary crash it's it's just A tough spot to be and that's why soft Landings are so few and far between Because essentially the FED has to Pivot At the precise moment that will allow a Soft Landing it has happened but it's Just not very Common and also with job openings it's Very sector dependent for instance Retail trade job openings are actually Near the the pandemic low I mean the Pandemic low for for retail trade was at 493 th000 we're at 540,000 right I mean There are some sectors like retail trade That have gotten hit a lot lot harder Manufacturing does not does this not Kind of look like the inflation chart Where it came down in the summer of 2023 And then it's just been going sideways Is that not just the inflation

Chart you know what I mean let me show You what I'm talking About if I can Um let me pull it up over Here so let's look at inflation Year-over year You see this right here you see how Inflation ever since the summer of 2023 Has been going Sideways you can see the same thing in Job openings in the manufacturer sector Right but again the bias will eventually Be that this keeps to this keeps falling As long as the FED doesn't pivot if they Pivot too soon then maybe it doesn't um But that would be the bias is that it Would likely continue to Drop but it has sort of stalled out here And that's why that last percent going From 3% inflation to 2% is so difficult It requires the FED to stay the course For as long as they need to and a lot of Times in the past the FED has pivoted Too soon and then it resulted in a Second wave of inflation so that's the Manufacturing sector the con this is What this is an interesting one because The there was a big drop in construction Job openings this past month in fact This might be the biggest drop on record Month to month it Is 82,000 less I believe or yeah the job Opening difference

182,000 So is that signal or is it noise we have To have another data point because what You'll notice is that this data point Here for March saw a big drop we also saw a big Drop last March where it dropped from 409 to 291k so is that signal or is it noise I Think at this point it's still noise but If if it keeps going down in the coming Months and maybe it's more of a signal But that's one of those things where Like you really have to take a moving Average to to try to get any insight Into this because it is St it is very Stochastic um we could look at maybe Just a couple more uh Leisure and Hospitality might be an interesting one To look at again in a slow down Trend Still above um the pre-pandemic levels But not by a lot and then you have Professional and business service is Which has also been slowly starting to Trend back down after getting a pop back Up in the summer of 2023 job quits level Continues to drop and the reason why This is a confusing chart because a lot Of people think oh fewer people are Quitting but if you think about it if Fewer people are quitting it just means The labor Market's tighter if people are Quitting it's implying that hey they can Probably go find a new job or maybe they

Already found a new job and so they're Quitting their current one but if fewer People are quitting then that means Labor Market's getting tighter because They're probably fearful that they can't Find a new job if you look at the last Two recessions that was you know when Job quits for tring trending down and I Mean you can see they've been trending Down since April of 2022 but again the Starting point was a lot higher than the Starting point back over here we've only Just now gone below the pre-pandemic High for job quits for total nonfarm job Job quits if you look at retail trade It's been dropping a lot as well um Construction doesn't look as bad um but You get the idea the job quiz rate which Is essentially the same thing that you Just looked at just in percentage form Has taken another move to the downside At 2.1% if we were to look at a Year-over-year change obviously it's Been negative uh for about 2 years now Okay so the labor market is it is Loosening up it is what did I say Earlier I said it's tightening I meant To say that it was it was loosening okay So the the labor market is is loosening Up and um it's just um you know when it When it's tight when the labor market is Tight it implies that you know it's Going to have upward pressures on Inflation and um you know it's hard to

Get Workers as it loosens up people are Not going to be as likely to to quit Their job because they're not going to Be as likely to find a new job so I Think I I said it backwards Earlier initial claims is one of the Things that has been relatively low for A long time um still 200,000 28,000 not Recessionary territory I think you'd Have to see it in the $ 300,000 range For it to be recessionary territory uh Still only 28,000 you also can look at Initial claims per state this is Non-seasonally adjusted which is why it Looks like this we're not going to we're Not going to go through these continued Claims uh has also stalled out here at Around 1.7 1.8 million also not really Recessionary just yet you still haven't Really seen another move to the upside We also do have continued claims per State again non-seasonally adjusted one Thing that's interesting to look at is The one from nada Um cuz that's kind of sort of a bell Weather I feel like you can see it's Just been putting in higher lows since 2022 and it does tend to to do that a Lot earlier than a lot of the other States um again in a normal in normal Times you would expect it to be putting In lower highs and lower lows right but During harder Economic Times you would Expect it to be putting in higher highs

And higher lows which is what it's doing Right now also what it started to do in November 2005 this started here in May Of 2022 um and then it also started to Do something simil in 1998 right so I Mean it tends to turn the corner a lot Sooner than a lot of the other states Right a lot of the other states uh you Know I think take longer you know New York again it's not as clear of a signal But still also it is putting in higher Highs and higher lows number of states Where the percentage year-over-year Continued claims is Rising by 30% uh It's actually fallen down quite a bit Over the last few months after going all The way up to around 27 we can also Change this to say just being above 10% Um as well and and you can see I mean it Has been dropping uh quite a bit in the Most recent in the most recent months Number of states where the percentage Year-over-year initial claims is Rising still pretty low right still Still pretty low this is a minimum Percent 30% and then new highers new Highers continues to also drop putting In a new cycle low at 5.5 million Looking at year-over-year percentage Change it's been negative um you know Since 2022 and you could of course also Look at it in different sectors like the Manufacturing sector and see that it's Just dropping Like a Rock Construction

Uh doesn't look as bad and then of Course retail trade I imagine looks Pretty bad um yeah I mean it's way down Here which is way below where it's been In any recent times so one thing that we Can also do we can look at the the labor Indices we have the Kansas City fed Labor market conditions index um Continues to slow down but again not Monotonically um still well above zero And then you also have the Kansas City Fed labor market conditions index um This is the momentum indicator the last One was the level indicator this one is Know pretty close pretty close to zero But not not super negative like you saw In in Prior recessions um the last thing I wanted to look at very quickly is the Job openings per unemployed worker okay And this kind of shows you just how much Excess there has been so look at you Know the dot era and the financial Crisis we start started at a level that Was already less than one right meaning There was already less than one job Opening per available worker this one we Started at over two right so in 2022 There was two job openings per available Worker that's reduced all the way down To 1.32 so the excess has been removed for The most part but there still is a Little bit of excess there and it's Still above what we saw 20 years ago a

Counterpoint to that as well is that There's also more people today um so Theoretically you know you're going to Need more job openings anyways um but You know you can kind of help normalize That out by dividing out by the the Unemployment level and seeing you know Who actually is looking for a job and You can see that we're we're still above One but we are getting pretty close to The pre pandemic levels right Prepandemic levels was around 1.2 and We're at around 1.3 so a few more months Of this we could be going below the Prepandemic levels and when you hear Powell say things like the labor market Is coming you know the demand the supply Available workers is coming into better Balance with demand this is what he's Talking About it's coming back into to better Balance right where there's maybe as Many job openings as there are available Workers and there's not a lot of excess Um so they've they've spent the last Couple of years just getting this back Down uh but it's probably going to still Take a few more months for it to get to Where they want before they're going to Really start to ease consider So again this is another another thing To look at I also think it's worthwhile To look at the difference between the Employment surveys um because you have

The household survey and the and the um The institutional Survey and you can see that there has Been quite a deviation right the or the Establishment survey the household Survey has started a really Plateau Whereas The Establishment survey has Continued to go up but also note that in Prior Cycles the household survey Leveled off before the establishment Survey did so that's kind of in line With what we've seen previously as well Where the housing survey shows weakness Before the establishment survey one does So you're kind of seeing the same thing That is happening once again and if you Divide those um you get something that Looks like This right so they have started to Diverge here quite a bit um like prior Times during economic slowdowns but my Guess is are going to come back into Better balance and start to converge Once again so that's where we stand uh With the labor market obviously we went Through quite a bit uh the last thing to Maybe look at is the S rule recession Indicator and that is the highest it's Been this business cycle so it's back up To 37 remember once it crosses 0.5 that Indicates generally historically it's Indicated that we're in a recession Normally when it crosses above the zero Line it means the recession started a

Couple months before um but we are Getting relatively close we're not there Yet though and it's still I mean it Still might take a while I don't know I Don't know how long it's going to Take you can also look at it per state And see like you know some states like Alabama the Su rule has already Triggered obviously the S rule for California triggered long ago but you Know if you were to go look at Massachusetts it would be nowhere close To triggering if you look at the number Of states where the Som rule has Triggered it's actually now up to around 20 20 um when which is the highest it's Been you know since um since 2020 so the number of states has been Going up recently it it's actually Dropped down a little bit but I'm Guessing you'll you'll likely start to See it continue to go back up there's Prior times where you'll get sort of a Spike and then a pullback and then Another big spike um so so do keep that In mind we also had a spike over here in The 1980s followed by a drop and then Another spike in 1981 when the FED Finally did what they needed to do when Vulker finally did what needed to be Done to squash inflation once and for All which is ideally what we do I mean If we can get inflation back to 2% then We can have another long phase

Potentially of economic expansion um but As long as inflation continues to be a Thing then the unemployment rat is going To keep on going higher more than likely Because the FED has to has to keep rates Higher for longer we've gone through a Lot um that's essentially where the Labor market stands again we have a lot Of charts on the website make sure you Guys check it out we also have a macro Dashboard that you know as things come In every single day you can see you know What's actually happening um like the Som rule recession indicator sometimes You get things like you know things with A lot of different categories and that Way I can remind myself okay what's Something I missed all right oh the Average hours worked per week came in it Also dropped back down to 34.3 right oh What else came In the index of aggregate weekly hours Of production right look at the year of A-year change year-over-year percentage Change getting pretty close to zero but Still still slightly above it but that's Something that we've you know spent a Lot of time uh working on as well and You can actually filter by if it's Frequently uh or monthly quarterly Weekly or even daily if you want I don't Really know why you want to look at it On a daily time frame some of the Indicators update daily but most of them

Do not you can also sort it by category If you prefer as well and then we also Have a recession risk dashboard right Now the only thing providing any warning Is interest rate risk right treasure Yield spreads everything else um you Know this is the only one that's still Flashing a warning everything else still Is is pretty low in terms of the Recession risk so again we we'll keep an Eye on it in the coming you know in the Coming months but um something something To just kind of keep an eye on and and Be like all right you know is it really Recessionary or does it just feel like It um based on what the news we seeing Right now these economic indicators Still say things are fine that doesn't Mean they can't evolve into something Else later this year especially if the FED doesn't pivot soon enough we'll go And drop it up there um and and we'll See you know we'll see how the how the Rest of the business cycle plays out uh Again it can take a long can take years To play out take a really long time to Play out and actually there's one more Chart that I I I find kind of Interesting and that's sort of the um The the yield curve stuff but Roi like Roi after yield curve inversion But rather than looking at like the Stock market right you look at at at Indicator or like you look at at at at

Macro stuff like for instance the Unemployment rate so if you do something Like that after say the 10 month or the 10 year and the 3 month have been Inverted and you look at the current Cycle and you compare it to say the one From the financial Crisis it's not that different when you Think about it I mean I think a lot of People say well this time is different But it's not really that different in Fact at this point this is where the Unemployment rate was off of its low and You can see that but this was month 17 It took until about month 21 for it to Really pick up which would be four Months from now right so so June July August September so September would be Essentially if it were to follow that One again it's probably not going to Follow that one you can also look at the Dotom era and see that we've been Lagging it in terms of the rate of Increase you can look at 1989 and say That it's been following it pretty Closely so again it's not really that Different right it's kind of the same It's just taking a long time to play Out for people that want it to play out In a day because a lot of crypto Traders Just think oh it's not happening today It's not happening but this is the Business cycle you are in fact watching It play out it's just playing out over a

A really really long period of time Which is not that different from prior Business Cycles this is what happens I Mean these are you know these are four Different these are five different Business Cycles unemployment rate as Measured from inversion of the 3-month And the 10-year yield and we're kind of Where we always are at this time Approximately sometimes it has been Worse but the last two business Cycles we're right in between we're Right in between them so I I don't know Really if this time is different I mean Maybe it's not and you know maybe maybe Everyone thinks it is here here's the Same thing as measured from the the Inversion of the 2-year and the 10year Yield so if you look at it like This you can see that it it Really it really isn't different you Know it it really isn't but I I know That it it it certainly can feel like It's different um but I I don't know That it is I I think that it's just Taking a long time for to play out which Is longer than you know most Millennials Have ever seen a business cycle play out Right we haven't really seen a full Business cycle play out because the last One I'm not really including the Pandemic the last one was when most of Us were back in high school you know So this

Is this is maybe the one that we get to Experience that we then tell people 20 Years from now about you know you can't Even imagine people were buying jpegs Like crazy back then right so I I do Think that it is worthwhile to watch This kind of stuff play out and we can Look at other things too besides the Unemployment rate um you could look at At hours worked uh but I don't know that We have enough data yeah we don't we Really don't have a ton of data from Prior Cycles we just have the the Financial crisis one and you can see That we're actually slightly below that And maybe we'll look at one more um one More metric Um Som Ru recession indicator Maybe where is that come In compared to the Um here's the uh I'm not really sure it's not doesn't Really seem to be loading Here all right well I have to I'll have To figure out why that one's not let me Switch this over to the 10 10 year and The 3 month maybe this will be a little Bit Better so this is what it looks like Currently and this is what it looked Like going into the financial Crisis here's what it looked like going Into the Doom It's not different you know I mean it

Really is not I I don't know what to say It's it's not different it's the same I I think everyone's Just convinced of the notel landing Scenario but I I'm am not I'm I'm not Convinced of it I I think That there is going to be um a reckoning Ahead that causes the unversioned the Y Curve and and it leads to the markets Getting relatively spooked for a while Because to me frankly this just does not Look different It's actually right in between three of The last business Cycles it's doing the Exact same thing I probably need to do a Full video on this stuff because there's So many different macro indicators that You can look at right Um and I don't even know like you know I Mean what about temporary Help Services you know I mean so this is the Current cycle This is the financial Crisis here Is the Doom we're right in between you Know it's right in between those two Cycles so again there you have it guys That's the labor market this is the Business cycle we are witnessing I think I think Millennials are experiencing Their first business cycle and I'm I'm Just trying to slowly walk through it as Best I can also learning a lot of things Along the way and kind of disrespecting

That the process takes a long time to Play out but I also think it would be a Mistake to ignore the process just Because it's taking longer to play out Than maybe you want it to we'll go ahead And wrap it up there thanks for tuning In make sure you subscribe give the Video a thumbs up and I'll see you guys Next time bye