The BULL RUN has Begun: Mark Yusko’s BTC Price Prediction

Fair value for Bitcoins around 55k so I think 
we drift upwards toward that that level but then   The punters are gonna come and we're already 
up 100 so that leaves a 5x from here when I   Talk to Mark yusco back in February he told me 
that at the end of the crypto bear Market was   Just around the corner I was skeptical 
but he was actually right I knew crypto   Rally has finally kicked off with BlackRock 
filing an application for a spot Bitcoin   ETF yusuke thinks this is just the beginning 
of a parabolic move that will bring Bitcoin   To newest time highs in anticipation of the 
half Wings had to take place in April 2024.   In this interview I talked with Mark about 
his crypto price outlook for the next months   And the main catalyst we should look for I'm 
Giovanni on this show we challenged the ideas   That shape the world of crypto in each episode we 
assess a crypto narrative a macroeconomic Outlook   Or a potential disruption technology only the 
most solid ideas will make it to the other side Foreign Last time we talked I think back in February um 
you were saying that this year we were gonna see   The start of the crypto summer so these uh renewed 
Bitcoin crypto bull market what do you think has   The crypto Summer started and do you think that 
the application by BlackRock for uh Bitcoin for a   Spot Bitcoin ETF triggered that the start of the 
crypto summer well we ended crypto spring uh in   June I think I think it was kind of you know last 
June 15th where we had the the bottom then we had   Another interim bottom after the FTX debacle and 
then you know this year uh June 15th I think to   Me was was the trigger now people look at it and 
say oh we had this big Rally from December of last   Year into into June so isn't that isn't that the 
rally or not that to me that's just the beginning   Kind of that that got us back to even over the 
previous year and now I I you know I look at at   Where we're headed in a in a crypto summer now 
what is crypto summer mean well it's it's where   The attention of the markets kind of shifts toward 
this having event in this period between now and   The having I think we drift upward towards fair 
value what's fair value I will argue based on   A metcalf's law model fair value for Bitcoins 
around 55k so I think we drift upwards toward   That that level but then the punters are going 
to come right if we go from 30 to 55 everybody's   Gonna say oh we're going to the Moon again people 
are going to throw out the multi hundred thousand   Dollar targets and we probably will have a 
speculative blow off top sometime in 2024   That leads to the next downturn in the 
next crypto winner so it's a long answer   Okay that's interesting so you expect 
the next downturn to be already next year Well 2025. so the downturn so the way I think 
about it and it's just my way of thinking about   It the four-year cycle tends to run June to junish 
so you know we saw crypto spring June 22 to June   23 June 23 to kind of April May 24 uh will be 
crypto summer then we'll get the blow off top kind   Of from May of next year to to kind of May April 
May of the following year and then then we start  

The next downturn sometime leverage will come back 
my my one thought though on that Giovanni is that   The Leverage in this cycle probably 
won't be as bad as the previous two   Meaning there won't be as much leverage available 
and therefore the highs probably won't be as high   You know if you think about the two cycles 
ago we went up 40-fold a big move then last   Cycle we went up 20-fold this cycle 
I think probably more like tenfold   And we're already up 100 so that leaves a 5x 
from here so could I see a price in the 150 range   Yeah yeah I can see okay yeah that's pretty 
realistic uh perspective on the future outlook   On the Bitcoin price uh I just want to talk about 
the latest uh big news of crypto which is uh the   Application by BlackRock tool for a Bitcoin for 
a Bitcoin ETF which apparently triggered the   Beginning of this crypto summer I've said for for 
a long time actually for over a year that no one   Else was going to get approved for the ETF but you 
know the wink of us Twins and ARCA and and and dcg   All these guys were making the application 
like they're going to get stamp rejected   I said The only person I saw that had a shot was 
was BlackRock there's a lot like well because   They're part of the group I mean they're part of 
the incumbents and so shockingly uh they release   Their application now it coincidentally with 
the beginning of what I deemed crypto summer   BlackRock shows up and says hey we want 
to do an ETF I think it will be approved   I don't know when right but but my guess is 
you know sometime in Q3 or early Q4 I think   That is going to change some of the Dynamics 
of this crypto bull market and the reason is   Um just supply and demand right there's there's a 
whole bunch of people who aren't going to sell at   Any price and demand is going to rise if a bit 
if a spot ETF is approved and it's to me the   Antithesis of what happened in November of 21 when 
they approved the Futures ETF and from that point   Prices just went down well why is that if 
there was a Futures ETF approved why didn't   That increase the price of Bitcoin well because 
Futures ETFs do the opposite they actually allow   Banks and other large speculators too short the 
price of the asset because you can create a paper   Asset out of thin air and you've seen it in 
the gold markets you've seen it in the oil   Markets you've seen it in the in the Commodities 
markets now we've got the onset of what could be   Not just tens of billions but potentially hundreds 
of billions of demand from people who trust   BlackRock right there are a lot of Institutions 
they just trust Larry and and BlackRock and and   They will buy this asset and so I just want to 
follow up on that because um I was talking not   Long ago with an ETFs Analyst at Bloomberg his 
name is Eric balchunas he said that yes not here   Yeah she said that basically according to his 
estimates this uh this spot ETF has around 51   He puts the odds at 51 getting approved 49 not 
getting approved so he he is like tilting more   Towards a positive outcome what is your estimate 
of the odds look I I mean I love Eric but I   Think he's a great guy I think he's being way 
conservative BlackRock is uh applied for 576.

ETFs they've gotten 575 approved they've only 
lost once I would say the odds are way higher   Than 51.49 look I I think it's a done deal I I 
think it's been a done deal for years they've just   Been waiting for the right time um I I actually 
think it's getting better but you know I never   Say a hundred percent because you know things 
can happen but I I'd say 51 is very conservative   But it's not a bad position to take as you said 
BlackRock is one of the incumbents uh there is   This narrative that say that basically uh the 
incumbents are trying to take over crypto they   Can take over Bitcoin through this uh regulated 
uh exchange traded fund and that simultaneously   They are cracking down uh through the SEC on Midas 
coinbase so it's all some sort of a scheme made by   The incumbents to take over crypto the question 
is should we welcome the filing of BlackRock for   Our spot Bitcoin ETF or should we be afraid 
of it well blockchain technology does is it   It basically disrupts Financial Services the 
way the internet disrupted media and commerce   Now we have a third Ledger an immutable trustless 
truth Ledger that says 100 100 everybody agrees   It was a hundred there's no fraud there's no uh 
malfeasance and and you don't have to trust me   Anymore in fact they didn't even have to know 
each other we can just transact peer-to-peer   Globally instantaneously no more gold and 
evolved no more money being printed it's a   Pretty glorious future but the incumbents are 
like whoa whoa wait a second I don't like that   I like my seven trillion dollars a year my six 
to eight percent of global GDP that's good for me   So it's not surprising at all that The Regulators 
would rig the system such that they don't approve   The disruptors coming into the party to take 
some of that seven trillion well now BlackRock   Which is part of the group says hey we want 
to take the one percent fees every year not   You know dcg and the other disruptors and 
now I think what happens is they say okay   And so should we welcome them not really right 
but should we be happy that we get a better   Functioning system and ultimately we strip 
some of the costs out and so we win a little   Bit sure and will people look the hardcore 
Maxis they'll hold their Bitcoin in Self   Storage self-custody put on a ledger which 
we love because we own a piece of Ledger   Um and everything's out but for the average person 
who has never like my dad never gonna hold his own   Keys just not gonna do it he's perfectly happy 
at coinbase he'd be perfectly happy to buy an   ETF we need these C5 these centralized Finance 
structures as a bridge to the beautiful   Decentralized future so that's a long-winded 
way of saying we shouldn't like celebrate them   But we should welcome them and we should be happy 
that more participants will now enter the digital   Age thanks a lot Mark for this great conversation 
as usual it's a pleasure to have you on our show   And I look forward to talking to you again in 
a few months and see how your predictions will   Have played out that sounds great enjoy the rest 
of your summer and uh we'll see you in the fall