The Biggest Bitcoin Bull Run in History Has Begun | Crypto Investing Expert Mark Yusko

I'll make a big statement I believe this Year in 2024 which by the way is the First Year of this epic the blockchain era the Truth net as I call it I believe more Money will be converted from Fiat to Bitcoin than the previous 15 years of Bitcoin's existence today I sit down With Mark yuso founder of Morgan Creek Capital Management and it's because the Demand isn't going away to talk the Potential of Bitcoin in 2024 people Forget this right we went from 10,000 to 60,000 in about 4 months also what could Go wrong is everybody too bullish There's a saying you know if everybody's Thinking the same thing that somebody's Not thinking is everybody too bullish When to take profits best time to sell What is your profit taking strategy and Even if it's not with Bitcoin what is Your strategy for taking profits with With altcoins ah so okay and of course Watch today's whole video we talk Ethereum price prediction by end of year Based on your Bitcoin forecast at the End of 2024 or cycle toop where does That put ethereum click the like button And let's start now something that was Super prevalent narrative wise at the Beginning of the year several weeks ago Was the Bitcoin ETFs and their impact on The market we're several weeks into it

What is the current impact Of the Bitcoin ETFs in Supply and price So couple things one it's interesting to Watch The Arc of the story go from this Will never happen right so you know last June Black Rock uh applies and's like no It'll never happen I'm like are you Joking Black Rock just told you it's Gonna happen and so then it was like When it's G to happen well it's probably Gonna happen in that January window uh I Really thought it was going to happen on The King's birthday but uh they waited Till the 11th so the eth is you know the King's birthday but bottom line is uh Everybody's like oh no it's a buy the Rumor sell the news and The Bu the rumor Part worked right we went from kind of 40,000 38,000 pumped all the way to 48,000 and and look there was some Shenanigans shall we say going on um There's this guy I think it's like Cc15 I should give him better credit on Twitter uh he was tracking these wallets That were just every day buying buying Buying and was like wait the the ETF Hasn't been approved who is that and I Would argue no knowledge but I would Argue that was probably an account Associated with or affiliated with or Friendly with uh Black Rock Fidelity Somebody who was accumulating Because they all believed as as I do That this is a monster development like

Way bigger than people think and the Issue is we just shifted the aggregate Demand Curve right so when you sh when you have Supply curve demand curve and you shift The AGG demand curve the price goes up So fundamentally the price is going to Go up they're like no no no look right After they went down I'm like okay so What you saw was in the short run there Was liquidations from gbdc they were Kind of offsetting the early flows you Had a bunch of the big dogs like Vanguard and UBS and Bank of America Said no you clients can't buy this Really you're gonna tell me I can't Spend my money on something that I want To buy bu Vanguard you know like Literally people should and they did Leave now the flip side of that is Someone has to be that you know stage Sty Institution for the old folks to Hold their stuff and not go after these Ponzi schemes whatever So not all of the capital that was Captive is going to rush into ETFs all At once that was first second some other Shenanigans very little discuss thing Atin Was the Same Day January 11th there was A new set of Futures released on the Chicago mer exchange nobody was talking About it and if you go back at the Previous two December 17

200 uh 17 and November 6 2021 those were tops right where the Future allowed the big organizations to Get short and push the price down Well that certainly happened in that First week so you had gbtc liquidations You had um the FTX liquidation you had The shorts coming in and yeah we went From 48 down to 38 and just retrace that Whole period see told you total Failure well last time I checked right Before we got on air it was 52 again and That's a big move well what Happened the demand C shifted out the Demand the amount of new demand for Bitcoin from my brethren and sister Right I'm a boomer and you know all the Other Boomers out there they're not Going to get a ledger and buy it Direct they're not right most of them What are they going to do some will open A coinbase account like my dad he has a Coinbase account he doesn't own Bitcoin Then you tell my dad he doesn't own Bitcoin fine um but a bunch of them are Gonna say hey buy me some of that ibit You know black Rock's you know Advertising this ibit thing buy me some Of that and so that's going to happen So you and I talked about this last time We were together you know you said well What's what's your view of of Bitcoin I Said well look we're in crypto summer And crypto summer is a period where

We're going to drift slowly series of Higher highs and higher lows so not Without volatility we're going to drift Slowly toward fair value well why is That well after crypto winter okay and You bottom you get crypto spring where You just kind of Bounce Around the Bottom and it's kind of yuck and not a Lot happens well then crypto summer Happens where the investors come back Right they've gotten over losing money And they come back and they're like hey Wait if the fair value is 52k and I was Rounding instead of 50 but you know According to Tim Peterson's mecast law Model the the fair value is 52 so we Were at you know in the in the 30s we're Going to drift toward that 52 number by The Having but the caveat I said is If and I I might have said when when you Know they crown the king the Rock was Going to get now I didn't think they'd Do all nine I actually didn't um but That's even better because that's more Demand and So as we've come closer to fair value Now we've Totally uh completed that segment of of The move well now we focus on the next Thing which is the aggregate supply Shift so the having you know now it's Scheduled for like April 8th originally It was early May and then it was you

Know for a few days it was 420 and Everybody was freaking out and now it Looks like it's the eth which I think is Ironic in that that's the solar eclipse Date so I think that's kind of a wild Wild coincidence um not planned I don't Think but uh anyway So when we Have the fair value Doubles well no no no that's that's not How it works I'm like well no that's Exactly how it works because if you cut The block rewards in half half of the Minors would go out of business because Their costs are fixed so the price in Historical happs has doubled not Immediately but overtime now I I don't Know if we talked about this or not but I've kind of changed my thinking on that That because of ordinals because of Inscriptions and because of transaction Fees Maybe We don't double this time maybe we only Go up 50% because we don't have to have All of the money come from block rewards So let's say we get to 75 as fair value And again the model will tell us what That fair value is but you know let's Call it 75 then what happens is we'll get to Crypto fall which is the June period Post the Having that's when the craziness starts To happen that's when the fomo happens

Then we get into Thanksgiving and Everybody goes home and everybody's Patting them on the back and come on in You get two turkey legs this year Whereas two years ago you are you're not Invited anymore you're disinvited if You're a crypto person So now we're going to get that fomo top And in the past that's gone to 2.3 times Fair value so when fair value was 30,000 In the last cycle we got to 68 69 this Time uh let's say we only get two times Because there's not as much leverage This time because they cracked out on Binance and others so let's say we get Two times that would be 150 I think that's baked in the cake so Anyway that's a long answer to your Simple question that's exactly why why Are ETFs important they're important They're really important and it's Because the demand isn't going Away that Demand I'll make a big Statement and I've said this a couple Times Twitter I believe this year in 2024 which by the way is the first Year of this epic the blockchain era the Truth net as I call it um I believe more Money will be converted from Fiat to Bitcoin than the previous 15 years of Bitcoin's Existence I think upwards of $300 Billion dollar is going to get converted

Into Bitcoin uh this year big number in Crypto we have these Cycles do you think That this could be the last great Bitcoin Bull Run or cycle because after Black Rock and Fidelity they're the Biggest who's left well again it's great Question but no Because humans are going to human right Humans are going to push this thing well Beyond fair Value and then Investors are going to come in and say Okay it's time to get short and they're Going to collapse it and it might Be governments or banks that manipulate Like they did with the Futures and you Know back in 17 and 21 who knows but the Bottom line Is is the reason we have this four-year Cycle in crypto it's driven by the code In Bitcoin and the code is not going to Change every four years we're GNA have a Having Which means every four years there's Going to be this upward pressure on Price to reward the Miners that's going to draw in the Speculators and ultimately the gamblers Who fomo in at the top and then we're Going to crash and those crashes will Always be worse than fair value right When when you crash you don't go to fair Value you go through fair value because People panic and shorts get

Liquidated um I I'm sorry Longs get Liquidated leverage Longs get liquidated Not the shorts the shorts make money so I I Do think you're right that This cycle is Exacerbated by the entrance of new ways To get Demand but that's been true of every Cycle right the first cycle when it was A science project suddenly you could buy It not in the back alley Literally where you had to meet somebody And you had to worry about getting hit In the back of the head with a wrench to You could do it at Mount GA right and then that failed and then You could have you could do it at Coinbase or Kraken and that not failed but then that Got Dicey and then you had this thing gbtc So the last cycle people forget this Right we went from 10,000 to 6 ,000 in about four months because Gbtc got1 billion of demand into their Trust that was what drove that cycle now Now also you know you had some uh Michael Michael sailor buying and you Know you had a few others you had elon's Famous quote where you know we're not Going to take it for Tesla and it Crashed remember it went from February

Down to June down 50% before it rallied Into November when he's like oh I'm Kidding you can go back and buy so there There was plenty of demand and what's Going to happen every cycle is there's Going to be a new Avenue for demand so This cycle isn't the trust Gbtc it's the ETFs and the next cycle it'll be maybe It'll be derivative products or maybe It'll be the institutionalization the Wall Street isation or small countries And then it'll be small countries then One of these Cycles it's going to be Central banks right literally central Banks are going to say you know I got All this gold and it's expensive to Store and it's kind of Cumbersome I could put a lot of Bitcoin Right on this little phone and and just Put it in the vault and I think central Banks will start to to buy and then You're going to have someone's going to Come up With I've been talking about this for a While that if you think about the Internet the internet was invented in 1991 you know Tim burners Lee wrote the First web page and boom we have the Internet but it took five years for it To become kind of well known and Usable because we didn't have the Browser so Mark andreon invent Mosaic and then Microsoft steals the

Idea which they always do and they you Know introduce to explore and boom the Internet's the thing and then the the Mobile net you know mobile Telepan wasn't invented in 2007 but this thing was released in 2007 And all the companies were like oh That's stupid $500 for a phone I'm never Paying $500 for a phone they'll have Zero market share in fact I watched the Video of the the Nell guy basically Saying no way no way they they compete With us anyone have a noril phone I mean I mean no nobody nobody literally or Motorola even so I Mean what happened was the uh iPhone was The next window the next portal into the Mobile net so we had the internet the Mobile net now the truth net I will Argue is going to be a Hardware security Module right whether it's a ledger or an Lpad or or maybe it's one that hasn't Been invented yet or whether you know They finally figure out how to make The Enclave work in the phone I don't know Doesn't really matter to me but Someone's going to invent that and That's going to on board an entirely new Generation of users and So the numbers are are kind of crazy When you think about it you know Bitcoiners we all know each other and we All talk to each other and we all tell Each other how smart we are and yay

Us infinitesimal number relative to Humanity and there's a whole bunch of People that 10 years from now 20 years From Now this is going to be so commonplace And so ordinary won't you and I won't be Able to talk about this because it won't Be interesting anymore it'll just be Like I don't talk about how this Actually works I don't talk about the CDMA and the tdma there was a time 15 Years ago we that's all we talked about Was it CDMA going to win or tdma going To work win and you know is this chip Going to win or that chip going to win You know it's 286 or 386 or the Pentium I mean once it becomes Invisible then it'll really start to Grow And if you believe as I think I do and You do and others that that have seen The the light That this is a Technological Evolution that is never going backwards Right it's just going to keep evolving And keep transforming and keep Enveloping the broader World until and I I say I use this prop all the time that You know my granddaughter who's one will Never have one of these she will never Have a leather wallet she will never use Paper money ever in her life she will Never use paper money right she will

Only use digital money and people That'll never happen yeah well and it'll Seem normal 20 years from now but it Doesn't seem normal now So if like to you and me it's so obvious And I'm just talking about Bitcoin this Year crypto this year um but there's a Saying you know if everybody's thinking The same thing that somebody's not Thinking is everybody too bullish or What's your is what's the Counternarrative again great great Question and and you know I I say this Time the reason I like you know talking To you and doing your show is is you ask Great questions you prepare you send me The questions Advance there's there's Actually a lot of thought And I can answer any question now many Times people say God he's so full of like okay fine but I'm I like to Answer questions but the more important Skill in life is be able to formulate Great questions and I literally tweeted That question out the other day that's Where I got this question from in my Prep okay TW so yeah great mind think Alike and and it look When everyone is leaning the same Direction there's not a lot of thinking And that's what I feel about passive Versus active investing everybody's Convinced that passive is the best and They don't think about what it does to I

Mean s super micro smci andbody like oh Look at the how great this is like are You joking they make rack Servers okay and oh but they buy in I Mean Nvidia chips Oh yay okay fine but You still shouldn't pay 10 15 20 times Revenues for that but because it's Capitalization weighted and it's in an Index the higher it goes up the more That index has to buy so the higher it Goes up so the more the it's a Self-fulfilling prophecy and so in that Regard I think we're in a massive bubble In traditional assets because no one's Thinking it's all machines they're not Allowed to think they're dumb and I Don't mean unintelligent I mean Rule-based meaning they must buy things As they become expensive which is the Antithesis of value investing actually But it's a momentum strategy and Momentum works until it doesn't and then Explodes spectacularly go back people Should go back and look at you know Micro strategy in 2000 it went from a Dollar to $330 it looks just like Smci and then it went down 99% because the shorts were right now The shorts got carried out multiple Times just like the shorts now in fact I Think smci set the set the record for The highest relative strength it just Beat

GameStop which just means it's a short Squeeze so the point there is in crypto Yes all of us watching this show and and Together and the crypto Twitter we're All thinking the same Way we're just a tiny little fraction Right all the haters are still hating Right Jamie Diamond Elizabeth Warren Gary gendler I mean the guy has been Beaten about the head and shoulders all Year lost case after Case just give in Gary right just give In he won't he just keeps leading with His chin and you keeps getting beat up So the haters are still going to hate And Vanguard Maro Lynch UBS have all said Nope we don't recognize this as a real Asset this is not this is not like Stocks bonds and cash no it's not it's Actually better right that's why you Need it in your portfolio because it Increases the sharp ratio of a Diversified portfolio So I I am Cognizant That even if it's just a small group if Literally everybody is thinking the same Way bad things can happen but the Difference now Is there's so Little external interest you know Searches for Bitcoin not very high uh um People coming to you or me that you we

Haven't talked to for a year saying Hey How do I buy Bitcoin again that's not Really happening yet it's starting on on The edges But It's you look at the greed fear index You know we're not really in Crazy greed Yet now Bitcoin Yesterday was really overbought we had a Shooting star pattern which short term Is is not very good Um so I'm I'm you know I'm nervous short Term and thir there's one more test Coming mid-march to early April there Will be a selling wave where everybody Realizes how much they owe Uncle Sam in Taxes and kind of the same the other Thing we didn't talk about was part of The cell pressure around the ETF launch Was Lunar New Year and this happens Every every single year right before Lunar New Year the Chinese need to sell Some to fill up their red envelopes with Cash that's what they do and that's Their tradition and every year there's a Selling wave right before that and then We bounce up and then there's the Selling wave going into tax season and Then we bounce up and and we have a good Summer but and good fall but I I think This this selling wave could be big Right not only were profits huge last Year Okay so there's a lot of people that owe

Some taxes because there's there was a Lot of trading um it's now the fifth Question on the 1040 form like literally You know what's your name what's your Address what's your security number I Don't remember the fourth question maybe Your birthday and do you own Crypto like really really I mean okay so They can protest that oh we don't care About crypto we hate crypto but if you Own it we wanna we wantan to we want to Want to tax you on it well that's Actually the definition of money right Definition of money is something you can Pay your taxes with now they won't let Us pay our taxes with yet but the fact That they want us to pay taxes on those Gains is clear legitimization of of the Asset in 2021 besides Bitcoin obviously Play to earn um and ft's huge Trends in The in the in crypto in general like What are you seeing as trends for this Cycle for example l1's l2s real world Assets what are you seeing yeah so look L1's are back clearly I mean you know I Gotten a lot of trouble um when we did The show last summer when I I said you Know salana vaporized transactions and Everybody freaked I mean they were like Mad at me they're like like like and They're like we never rolled back the The the blockchain I thought I didn't Say you rolled back the blockchain I Just said look people sent transactions

The network went down those Transactions vanished maybe would have Been a better word than vaporized but Okay and and it was funny most people Were just like you're an idiot we hate You but there's one guy um from the Netherlands called not called DM me and Said hey I want to show you that we Fixed this stuff so we had a very nice Session and we went through it and Um uh what's his handle something pirate Happy pirate something like that um and You know he even he even gave me marusco Dosa he bought for me and you know Showed me how to send usdc you know for Nothing like okay that's all great but We still have this prop and so so I Jokingly said if you go back to that Date which was September 9th when I Changed my mind we've been straight up Since right went from 10 bucks to 110 Bucks so I'm taking full credit ha now I Have this other guy who's tweeting at me Every day saying it's all scam Market They're they're pumping the numbers up And there's a bunch of market makers and And the the network went down again yeah The network went down again so I'm still Not 100% convinced so come at me salana Guys I'm not 100% convinced that you fix Everything and I do worry that if one Person can turn off the network Temporarily That's not really decentralized is it I

Mean that that's that's a concern now it Doesn't mean I hate it and it doesn't Mean you know I haven't sold the rest I Told people very bluntly you know it was Our best investment ever and we sold Most of it but we still owned about 20% Haven't sold that um just like coinbase We didn't sell all of it and I'm really Happy because today they busted earnings Wide open So I I think l1's so that's that to Answer your question ones for sure now I Say that because I like what they're Doing at Avalanche and I love John Woo He's a buddy and and I think you know Good's a genius and and I like that and And I think there's some interesting Things going on at Cosmos and and uh and I think there's some other so but I Still struggle again we've talked about This with the mental models right if if We're just going to replicate the Internet where there are five protocols And it's a stack you know big coin is The base layer like tcpip and filecoin Like FTP and ethereum like www do I Struggle with what's SMTP and what's HTTP I I don't know polka dot Cosmos Salana I don't know that one so it kind Of works kind of doesn't if it's the Lord of the Rings one chain to rule all Chains It's all Bitcoin everything else Doesn't matter it has to be proof of Work and then there's lightning and l3s

And l4s which don't exist yet so hurry Up and create them maybe Then there's the lot of L1s and bridging and everybody's like oh See Mark you're you're making the case For chain Link okay I mean not intentionally but Okay if you tell me chain link is robust And doesn't have attack surfaces and I Mean price is going up but I worry that Those attack vectors are not robust Enough yet to make that world Work a mult L1 world seems logical to me Now I can still make the case that if I Have a really valuable Asset I'm putting it on bitcoin right if I have a really valuable digital asset I Want on the safest most secure most Robust chain and proof of work to me Personally is the only one that works For that but not everyone has to agree With that so then the second thing is Real world assets tokenizing real world Assets absolutely and how hilarious and I tweeted this out but So and I don't really believe he did This I don't think he actually saw my Video but you know Larry Fink has been On TV multiple times now talking about You know every stock every Bond every Currency every commodity it's all gonna Be tokenized I'm like here's my video Where I said those exact words so you Know imitation is the sincerest form of

Flattery now most powerful man in Asset Management he don't give a about me So I'm not saying he copied me but I've Been saying that for a long time I've Been saying that since 2017 and and I believe it now there have Been lots of reasons why it hasn't Happened yet and we still have lots of Problems like if I take a piece of land And I quote unquote put it on the Blockchain the land is still where I Left it and I still have to have Somebody observe it or maybe I have to Put sensors around it to make sure that It didn't get flooded or if there was a Building on it that the building didn't Fall down Um but in terms of solid provenance and Ownership and title blockchain's way Better than the database contrary to to Gary like it's no different than an Oracle database Bitcoin no are you Freaking kidding me Gary really you want To make the case that an Oracle database Is as secure as a decentralized proof of Work Blockchain even proof of stake is better Than Oracle database maybe not very much Different but come on Anyway as we to I you mentioned this Before but um your Bitcoin uh forecast For this year is double fair value after The having which fair value is 50 maybe You only get 50% of that so that would

Be at least 7580 and then a blowoff top In crypto Winter for that if that's accurate Crypto crypto fall before crypto winter Crypto crypto fall yeah what is your Profit taking strategy and even if it's Not with Bitcoin what is your strategy For taking profits with altcoins ah so Okay oh I'm glad you add add that last Word with altcoins so um here's the Thing I'm a venture capitalist that's my My day job and so in our Funds we own Assets mostly Equity but 30% liquid Protocols and we buy them and we hold Them we don't trade them and there are People that do that really well but That's not us now those funds have a Finite life so my first fund raised in 2018 is coming up on the end of its life So in this Cycle we will likely take Profits you know as we get towards Crypto winter you know June of of 25 Sometime between January and June of 25 so in our second fund where we've got A little longer we probably won't in our Third fund where we're just starting we Definitely and our fourth fund which We're raising you know clearly we Haven't even bought anything yet um So that's how I think about it from from That standpoint now from a trading Perspective I

Think right now you don't need to really Trade because we're we're here about to Go here so I just want to keep Accumulating and be Long and do I believe that you know Bitcoin will move X ethereum probably Moves 1.3x 1.4x the others move 1.5 to 1.8x to 2X And some of the alts are going to move 10 20 the problem as you get further Down the Stack the upside potential is Higher but the downside potential is you Lose everything like literally if you Think about what most utility tokens Are they are gambling vehicles and That's not necessarily A a negative I Mean they are what they are because you Don't own Equity you don't own debt you Don't own share cash flows they are Literally just given value because other People buy them you know take the Dogecoins or the Pepe coins There is no utility at this point now if Elon makes Doge a payment Rail okay but he hasn't done that yet so In those Cases the problem is they are like preed Stage Venture the upside potential is huge Right if you invest in something at at Fractions of a penny and it goes to a Dollar you've made a lot of money okay But 97 98 99% of preed stage Venture

Capital deals go to zero even if they Get big market caps in the short term They just never catch on and they and They go to zero so I bet if you look Back in history the very vast majority Of these you know projects there's a Whole bunch of them that go to zero and That's fine as long as you don't rifle Shoot if you rifle shoot and you put all Your wealth in a single Altcoin that seems like a bad strategy To me Now if you're right and that's one that Goes up and not down you get rich and You know Gary Cardone and I talked and And he was talking about this and and he Said you know somebody came back at him And said no no no no you know you're Talking about being concentrated you Know we need to be diverse about it I'm Like well look all great wealth comes From concentration every great Fortune Came from a concentrated position in Stock in a business in real estate in a Commodity whatever ever the problem is You don't hear about the Losers right you don't hear about the 99 Companies that started in a garage that Aren't Apple but there were 99 other Companies and they went to zero but Apple became gigantic and so history is Written by the winners and so if the the Caveat is you have to be Concentrated and

Right because if you're concentrated and Wrong you lose all your money you get Poor so concentrated portfolios make you Rich Diversified portfolios keep you Rich now I for the first part of my Career first 30 years of my career I was In the stay business not that I was rich But my clients and my employers were Rich and so my job was to keep them Rich Through diversification now my view of Diversification is a whole bunch of it Widely Diversified stay rich but I'm Always is going to have this bucket of Investing in Innovation that's my pin Tweet and that's where we've made the Most money and how we outperformed other Stay buckets because we had this little Get-rich bucket that that did okay Because we invested in Sequoia and Kleiner and you know Peter teal and Etc So I would say if you if you're thinking About investing in alts one scatter shot Have a bunch of them ride the Winners and then the question about well What do you do there is going to be Another cycle there will be another Crypto winter as sure as we're going to Have an eclipse on April 8th there's no Way to stop it right it's GNA go dark Actually this freaked me out a little Bit so there was a eclipse in 2017 and the path went over Nine Towns

Called oh crap now I'm gonna forget hold On um I gotta get this right this is This is this is crazy I need to know I Need to know no no this is this is crazy Crazy crazy stuff H what did I do with It if somebody knows down in the comment Section please comment help Us well you know it's Um I know the the current one Is we're going to go Over seven towns named Salem which is Short for Jerusalem right Um And all right here it is so in 2017 The oh give me the name of the town Um No rush take your Time we need this Answer I thought it would be easier to Find I'm going on the internet I'm gonna Find it before you all right anyway so It's um the eclipse path in 2017 went Down the country like this and it went Over nine towns with the same name it's Like how is that even possible that Someone could know you know hundreds of Years ago what the path of the eclipse Was going to be that's crazy but then This time it goes over seven towns with The same name and it's I guess if you Used I mean there are a lot of towns so You could probably you know figures lie And Liars figure but I just thought it

Was interesting so I don't think that Um it's well I don't remember where I Was going with that but anyway so you're Saying when to take profits that's a oh When to take profits so Um we're g to have a winter as sure as The sun is going to blot out you know From the sky when the moon goes across It and they can't stop it there's going To be another winter So if I were trading which I'm not a Trader I'm I'm a I'm an investor so I Buy and I hold uh and I'll weather the The storms but if I were a Trader I Would ride through you know midyear 25 Um I think the supply demand imbalances Are going to be really robust I think uh The technology that gets adopted um and This is this is Where they're in the alt space there're A couple ways to approach it so one is Scattershot the things that are moving And just you know let them run sell the Losers fast because if you think about The great investors of all time or the Great Traders of all time like Paul Tutor Jones there's a picture of him in His dorm room at UVA and he has this Sign above his desk losers average Losers and in trading that's absolutely True in investing it's not 100% true but In trading never ever chase a loser just Sell just move on to the next Idea but this this the corollary to that

Is Winners press Winners the hardest thing to do in Trading is to press your winners and you Know I was very lucky in my my life in My career I've had a lot of great Mentors and one was was Julian Robertson Maybe one of the greatest investors of Of all time and I talked to lots of People that work for Julian and they all Said the same thing two things one three Things one most person of the highest Integrity they've ever met like Literally just never fudge the numbers Two most competitive person they've ever Met I mean just want to win you know There's the question do you like to win Or do you hate to lose you love to win Hate to lose and it matters which one You pick he like to win and the the Third is they said he had an uncanny Ability to double up so he would press His winners and then at some point he he Would certainly take profits and I think For me uh I'm more of a there's a guy I Follow on tter and we're Twitter friends Which I have a lot of friends from Twitter the years uh Larry tentarelli And Larry uh he's not a investor by Training I mean he had a different Career but he became a Trader and he's All about technicals and momentum and But he's religious about it and Disciplined about it and one of the Things that I love he says is nothing

Good happens below the 200 day moving Average right And the trend will continue in the Direction of where you are relative to The 200 days so you know look at Nvidia Right now right everybody's wishing Something bad would happen well it's way Above the 200 day the trend is your Friend and don't try to go against it he Says there will come a day where the 20-day crosses the 50 and you'll get a Sell signal and then the 50 will cross The 200 and you should be out and so There are disciplined ways to just say You know what I'm wrong everyone else is Right and I'm just going to move to the Sideline but again that's a long- winded Way of saying I'd Probably go with the momentum go with The trend ride the wave but when things Go against you right and and just watch Technicals when the technicals turn and Particularly that 5200 like the 2050 That's more of a short-term trading but The 5200 when you get a death cross is Not a perfect predictor but why why Fight that if it goes back up then buy It again you know you can always buy it Back Mark two final questions this SEC This this first one is about macro when The Federal Reserve inev inevitably Cuts Rates like what will that look like will It be because they're about to break the Economy will the housing market crash

Will things be good because rates are Lower what do you Think um again really good question Really important Question the Fed With respect to rates is reactive right They're not proactive so they react to The economy both positive and negatively So when the econom is ripping and Inflation starting to turn up and growth Is High they'll start to rain back in The liquidity they'll raise rates and And try to slow down the car so it Doesn't crean off off the edge and Inevitably that's when they break things Because they go too far right because They they are reactive a and because They drive in the rearview mirror and so When you're driving in the rearview Mirror and the road turns you you go off The edge of the cliff so the same thing Is true on cutting is they'll wait too Long the economy will have already slow I mean there there are a lot of Indicators that say things have slowed I Mean Japan's in technical recession Europe's in technical recession now We're in this great expansion well kind Of I mean we spent a trillion dollars in Deficit it to get 300 billion in growth In the fourth quarter that seems like a Bad trade right I should at least get One to one if I spend a trillion I Should get a trillion but there's

Slippage now because we're so highly Levered and there's a lot of interest Cost so I I think this cut in rates will Be like all previous cuts in rates it'll Be because they perceive that things are Getting worse not better you don't cut Rates when you think things are good in Fact I say this all the time if you look Around the World High rates are a sign of economic Strength low rates are a sign of Economic weakness right if you go back To the global financial crisis what did Everybody do to rates they cut them to Zero or even negative so if you have Negative interest rates you are not Confident about the future right if You're trying to force people to buy Instead of save their money because You're penalizing them for putting in The bank you're trying to propel the Economy out of the doldrums conversely If rates are high like in India you look Over the last 20 years India has been The best performing Market in the world By far like way better than the US it's Not close actually and you say but India Is a third world country yep it is by And large they got some first world Parts but yeah it's got its challenges But their stock market is the best Performing Market in the world over 23 Years and it's because right they have Good demographics they have great rulers

Of law they have some really smart Entrepreneurs and they have some some Really robust Companies but they also have high rates They also have a young population and Young populations tend to have higher Inflation which demands higher rates Old demographics Europe Japan us Ultimately China have the opposite you Need lower rates and Chinese rates just Hit a new low not because they are Trying to stimulate I mean they're Trying to stimulate the economy but the Rates hit because people are looking at The demographic wave that's coming now I Think the thing they're Missing is that'll actually be a really Good thing for China believe it or not Because they have a Massive baby boom that no one talks About they're all all they talking about Is the baby bust which is real but as The the really old population starts to Decline this 300 million cohort of Millennials they have five times as many Millennials as the United States is Going to rise and that's going to be Very interesting because they won't have The same type of entitlement problem That we do whereas as me and all my Brethren and sister start to retire your Generation is gonna have to pay us Because of Social Security Medicare Medicaid which nobody wants to cut even

Though life expectancies are longer and All this good stuff but I think that's An interesting Dynamic that nobody wants To talk about but bottom line is um Rates will likely get cut probably not Anytime soon although it is an election Year so watch out for Jerry mandering uh As we come into the election because Right now the Dems look like they're Going to get wiped out but they're going To do everything including trying to get Tailor Swift to endorse the president Which I think would be hilarious but We'll see it's all programmed says Yeah right some um but hey final Question this one's just for fun based On your Bitcoin forecast at the end of 2024 or cycle top where does that put Ethereum what's your forecast at cycle Toop this's hard for me because I I can make the case that you know Bitcoin won the race to be money right It is the perfect money it's digital Goal and I know there were people on the East side no no no we're money too I'm Like not really um and I don't think you Can be money using proof of stake but That's just my own personal opinion so I Do think that ethereum has the potential To be the like the world computer right This this giant networked computer which Everyone else builds stuff on now you Got to fix gases and they're working on That and um so

I I probably have no reason to go against What has existed for a long time which Is the ratio between Bitcoin and Ethereum you know it used to be almost Exactly 10 to one so if if Bitcoin was 20,000 ethereum would Be 1,000 uh no it was 10 to one 20 two 20,000 and 2000 and that changed a Little bit in the last cycle so now We're what 52 over 28 what is That should be able to do that in my Head but I can't that's 1.8 So that's a little bit higher so in that Regard I could See a bigger rally in ethereum than than Bitcoin and that's kind of what you Would expect in the in the pump part in The final meteoric parabolic move Ethereum has historically outperformed Bitcoin and it probably should again so Let's say Bitcoin gets To 150 like I think it will uh and let's Say we don't go all the way back to 10 To one but we go To you know 1.8 now let's say we get Down to 1.5 it's probably not aggressive Enough but let's say it's 1.5 um so That's 10,000 I think there are a lot of People that have that number in their Brain that and a lot of people say well That's not that's not enough like fine Let's say it gets all the way back to 10

To one then that'd be 15,000 so Comfortably somewhere between 10 and 15 You here's the funny thing I'm sure You've done the test uh it's like a a Cognition not a cognition a Um it's the conoman tersi thing where They ask you within 99.999% accuracy give me the range for x And they give you a bunch of stuff the Length of the Nile River the distance to The Moon and the right answer for every Question is zero and Infinity because then you would be 99.999% right but the human can't do That so we'll say oh the Nile River oh It's between uh 180 miles and 1,400 Miles and the answer is like 5,000 miles Some crazy thing like why would you do That just say zero and infinity but the Human can't do that so I should just say Zero and infinity but I'll say uh Somewhere between 10 and 15 depending on On how aggressive we get on that ratio Mark super realistic super thought out I Appreciate that links for all your stuff Down below in the video description the Audience already is going down there Right now and following you if they Haven't already but just final thoughts For the altcoin daily audience uh look I I I uh always enjoy these conversations Thanks for having me back uh I love the Fact that uh you guys have built uh this This great following and you know the

Number of Impressions that you get from From these things is quite astonishing To me um so I I I feel honored to to be Invited back and to continue the Conversations and if people do have Questions I'm easy to find on Twitter uh I'm there as my wife would say too much But uh if you do have questions shoot Them to me and uh we'll talk Again


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