SP500 Bear Markets

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the equity verse today we're going To talk about the S P 500 bear markets And we're going to be comparing the Current one to Bear markets of the past If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and check out into the Cryptiverse premium at into the Cryptiverse.com we have several Different tiers as always including a Free one links in the description below Make sure you check it out let's go Ahead and jump in so we've been Following this bear market for quite Some time and the first sort of caveat That we have to say is that until we put In a new low you're still going to have To face the the potential reality of of It just being the 22 the 2022 bear Market right there's no clear you know When you look at the current bear Market Isolated until we put in a new low then There's no guarantees right there's Simply no guarantees now with with where We sit with with you know a sustained Rate hiking cycle by the fed and and it Looks like the economy is getting weaker It would suggest that we're likely going To put on a new low eventually or at Least come back down and retest the lows But until it actually happens you do run The risk of of it sort of just being a a 2022 bear Market but what we're going to

Do Is talk about this bear Market in the Context of Prior ones and what that Would look like now if you compare this One to the financial crisis we've Deviated from that quite a bit and so This analog has no longer held like it Once did but it's important to remember That this bear Market is going to look Different than all of the bear markets We look at in this video the point is Not to say that it's going to follow any Single one of them the point is to say Look this is what happened in the past And if it happened then it could happen Now or some derivative of what happened Then could happen now you should be you Should be prepared for it if you compare This one to the.com crash it's starting To take on some similarities you can see The.com crash actually rolled over at This point into a recession it peaked at Its you know around 421 days if the s p Doesn't put a new high then you could Say it hit it hit it on 390 395 days so The s p at this point is when it in The.com bomb crash is when it rolled Over maybe give it another couple of Weeks is when it actually started to Roll over into a recession so that is What you kind of have to be on the Lookout for is is this going to happen Are we rolling over into a recession or Are we not you know we'll we'll the

Market just kind of go sideways for a While an example of a sideways Market That would be equivalent to sort of a Soft Landing would be if we were to Follow the 46-49 bear Market where yeah Maybe we go lower but we sort of just Scraped the lows for a few years and Soft Landings aren't really that great For I think investors because you end up Just going sideways for typically for Years because you know there's there's Enough liquidity in the system sort of Prop up the prices but not enough to Really support much higher valuations Um just because there's you know there's So much weakness in the economy So this is sort of what I would consider To be equivalent to a hard Landing if we Were to follow a path like we did in 40 You know from 46 to 49 which was also of Course a period of high inflation coming Out of World War II but there's another Example during a period of high Inflation 73 to 74 where we follow this Path and we went sideways for a while Right in 73 74 we kind of went sideways For a while and then eventually we we Entered into a new a new phase of the Bear Market kind of have your first leg Down a sideways market for a long time And then a second leg down into a Recession and so this would sort of what I would consider to be a hard Landing if If the s p to follow something like this

Where it kind of just slowly bleeds for A few months and then the selling picks Up as you get further on into the year Into a final capitulation this would be A hard landing and the reason why you Might argue that this is is potentially More ideal for some investors who you Know who are prepared for it is because If you take it out to the next Peak Right you can still make Quite a bit of money right even if you Know even if you're buying at these Levels in fact as long as you as long as You give it time normally the market Comes back [Music] Um But then another one to compare it to of Course is is the bear Market that we had From say like 56 to 57 and let me just Take it to the bottom right in this case The bottom I mean we sort of rallied up For a while almost to a new all-time High and then we capitulate it right if You go look at at what happened in in in In that year we almost hit a new high Right well then we didn't so imagine if That were to happen for the S P 500 Where where we just sort of continue a Slow rally for a while And then everyone gets excited and calls For a breakout to much higher prices Only for us to capitulate down and put In a new low like that's also a a

Potential outcome as well and and Something actually like that happen in 87 I think we rallied for like a lot of The year and then at the end of the at The end of the year I think in October Maybe we saw a massive capitulation we Might actually have it on here and and We can look at this so here's here's What happened in 87 when that when this Was actually during the during the bear Market it was a massive capitulation That had you know that sort of preceded A or came after a fairly attractive Run-up Um that might have had people thinking That the prior low was then so these Things can break down quite quickly we Actually had a similar bear market like This that even was quicker during uh 2020 right it came down even quicker but But ultimately bottomed at around the Same level and then we we ended up going You know much higher so The reason we look at these again is to Show us what can happen not what has to Happen and if you take all of the prior Bear markets and just sort of look at at The the most the extremes to the upside And the downside that did continue to Put in new lows not the ones that were In the recovery phase this is where we Are right so there have been prior bear Markets that reached out to sort of a Drawdown from the prior all-time high

Even slightly higher than where we are Right now But they still ultimately continued in Their bear Market form if this breaks Above here and continues to go higher Then you you start to get into the idea Well is it a recovery and I know there's A lot of people that already think it's In recovery and are calling for new Highs and hey they could be right but There's also this idea too that there's Been plenty of bear markets before that Were also around these levels that ended Up putting in new lows and I think you Have to consider that as you as you can See you navigate the um the equity verse The the thing to remember and I I want To draw your attention to this because It can be somewhat negative you just Think sort of the the downside when you Compare things even to the.com Crasher Let's say you compare to the financial Crisis right look what happened after it You know look what happened after the Financial crisis it just makes it look Like it's it's just sort of a blip on The um on the map and then you you go up To much higher prices this again was More equivalent to a hard landing and Again look at at 73 to 74 not as Impressive as what happened after the Financial crisis but still a hard Landing and still pretty impressive Rallies to to new highs

And and take a look at Um you know the.com crash right After it crashed we then rallied up and And then we of course had the financial Crisis right we rallied into the Financial crisis but still I mean yes it Was it was a brutal bear Market but Eventually the market turned around Right and eventually it went up to new Highs Part of the reason we go to new highs is Not always because all the companies are Are are are doing much better sometimes That's the case to some degree but also There's just more money printing right And and when you have more money Printing asset valuations are going to Go higher you know I mean if if they Print another several trillion dollars Then you have to imagine some of that's Going to make its way to the stock Market and lead to higher evaluations so It's one of the reasons why the market Goes up is is unfortunate as it is uh That's sort of the the nature of it so I I did just want to provide a brief Update here on on equities hopefully This is insightful for you in in Navigating financial markets again There's no guarantees with any of this Stuff and I don't want anyone to think That this bear Market is going to follow Any specific analog of Prior bear Markets they will likely deviate and and

You can see that so far it kind of looks Like the.com crash but also so far it Kind of looks like 46 to 49 where it Didn't Sorry not for yeah Let me compare this so it sort of looks Like the 46 to 49 bear Market But you could also say it looks like The.com bear Market that ended up taking A completely different shape It's hard to know exactly which way it's Going to break it's hard to know if it's Going to be a soft Landing or a hard Landing history shows us that hard Landings are more likely than soft Landings history also shows us that hard Landings give investors amazing Opportunities that they don't they don't Come around very often so you have to Consider all of these potential outcomes Right this is what this is what a a hard Landing would look like in my opinion This is what a soft Landing would look Like in my opinion right take your pick I I think you're you're likely going to See one of these play out you know Whether it's a soft Landing or a higher Landing I think you're going to see Still we'll have to retest I think some Of these lower prices eventually or We'll put in new lows Um which would be more more similar to a Hard landing and it kind of depends on On just how bad how how aggressive the

FED gets and how long it takes to remove Liquidity from the system and how how Quickly inflation comes back down thank You guys for tuning in make sure you Subscribe give the video a thumbs up we Also do have into the reverse premium in At into the cryptiverse.com I'll see you Guys next time bye

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