S&P 500 Seasonal Correction

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the equity verse today we're going To talk about the S P 500 seasonal Correction that we previously talked About if you guys like the content make Sure you subscribe to the channel give The video a thumbs up and again check Out the sale on into the crypto versus Premium add into the cryptiverse.com Where you can of course get access to The Chart like the one we will go Through in this video now we've Previously talked about how the S P 500 Tends to get a correction in August or September and or September of the Pre-election year and if you take a look Here at 2023 you can see that that Correction has in fact materialized and It very well might not yet be over if You look at it within the context of What occurred in 2019 you can see that It occurred basically at the exact same Time if it continues to emulate that it Could still stay risk off uh you know For for actually several more several More days potentially before finding any Type of renewed strings maybe even Another week or two however if you look At 2015 you'll find that that risk off Environment actually persisted for a lot Longer right you can see they started to Sell off here but then the big sell-off Didn't actually occur until day 231 or 232 or so and we're currently on day 221

Which means it could still in fact be Another week or two away if it were to Emulate 2015. now in 2015 we know there Was actually a lot of recession Scare at The time which I mean they're I'm not That's not to say there's not a Recession scare now I mean I think there Is with an inverted yield curve [Music] But we still do have relatively good Numbers in in the jobs Market the Unemployment rate initial claims Continuing claims are still relatively Low and until that stuff goes up in a Material way then that recession risk I Don't think will be priced in now once You start to see the liver Market move Then the recession risk can get priced In quite quickly but until it actually Happens it's hard to say that it's Priced in so you can see some examples Of course like 2019 where the s p Continued to Rally uh in Q4 after Getting that seasonal correction but you Can also find other examples like in 2015 where it did not take out the prior The prior highs and that was more so Associated with a recession scare More than anything else And you can look at 2011 and and find Something very similar in terms of a of A risk-off move that occurred around This time frame and what I'd like to do Is is what we sort of did in the prior

Video where we talked about before we Had this correction in the S P 500 To take that average of of several of The last pre-election years 2019 2015 uh 2011 2007 2003 1999 the list goes on and On But just to average out the last six of The pre-election years this is what the S p looks like and so you can see that It's actually getting a very seasonal Correction uh as it normally gets and on Average Once it hits the lows on average it can Hang around those lows for you know Potentially another another month or two So that is just something we talked About previously about how the S P 500 Tends to get a seasonal correction in August or September of the pre-election Year whether it pushes higher in Q4 will Likely be up to whether a recession risk Materializes between now and then which We'll try to talk about that's why we Talk about the macro stuff we look at Jobs reports we look at initial claims Continue claims job openings and stuff That's what we talk about the macro Verse and of course up until this point The labor market has remained relatively Resilient and and we would need to see Initial claims printing probably well Under 300 thousands in a on a continual Basis before it's going to have any Material impact on the unemployment rate

But at this time it does appear that That's seasonal correction in the s p Has in fact materialized and the Question is if it hangs around these Lows or presses lower like it typically Does in the pre-election year then that Could cause other risk assets like Bitcoin coin and the altcoin market to Get hit a lot harder in 2019 remember The s p rallied into the end of the year While while Bitcoin and the altcoin Market fell back down okay and and again The Divergence was in August or September or so when Bitcoin got weekly Closes below the 20-week SMA all Bitcoin Pairs sold off and most of them Capitulated Um and then kept going lower on their USD pair as you got coins while the s p Continued to climb the wall of worry Until the labor market finally started To make that move So we could see a repeat of that right We could see a repeat of where where we See the s p we have the seasonal Correction if it persists long enough it Could cause uh cryptocurrencies to get Those bearish weekly closes send them Into a downtrend for the rest of the Year while the s p could climb the wall Of worry until the recession risk Materializes which I do think will Happen at the end of this business cycle But for all we know it might not be

Until until q1 of of 2024. Um you know we had a recession in uh q1 Of 2020 we had a recession scare I Believe in q1 of 2016. uh perhaps we'll See another one in q1 of 2024. anyways We're wrapped up there thank you guys For tuning in make sure you subscribe Give the video a thumbs up and again Check out the sale on into the crypto Versus premium into the cryptiverse.com Bye

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