Real Estate Outlook (A Discussion With Jordan Wirsz)

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the real estate verse today we're Going to continue our collaboration Series we've had Jordan Weirs on the Channel a couple times before pretty Good reception to it and I thought we'd Bring him back for a third time he Mostly talks about the real estate Market he runs a YouTube channel called Jordan Weirs uh and the Savant report Make sure you go check that out in the Description below we also have it in the Pin comment go subscribe to him he puts Out a lot of great content Jordan Pleasure to have you back here Ben thanks for having me bang me on your Channel it's always a pleasure yeah so You know the real estate market is I Mean compared to crypto anyways it moves At a snail's pace right so it does uh It's hard to know I mean it's hard to Say exactly what's going to happen in in The short term but some of these Overarching Trends uh are interesting to To sort of Um investigate where are we right now in The housing market and maybe walk us Through where you think we are Well thanks for that intro and the Question I think is a really great Question Um you know I participate in some of Your telegram groups which are awesome And there's some really great discussion

That goes on there and um you know There's been so much discussion lately On Twitter and on your telegrams about Where we are in the real estate cycle And what I've you know I've lived Through like a couple of these real Estate Cycles I mean I absolutely got Crushed uh back in 2008 and 2009 and so I learned a lot of lessons from that uh And have spent you know almost the last 15 years since then really just focused On understanding real estate Cycles Because I never wanted to be caught in a Big downdraft uh like I was before you Know you just like you are with crypto You know the bear markets teach you to Be smarter about you know when to be in And when to be out and so I basically Have done that since and Um you know I remember back in 2008 Ben There were so many people that were Saying hey we're not going to have a Crash hey we're we're just going to kind Of level off and we're going to have a Little bit of a of a correction and they They really didn't appreciate what was Coming and by the end of 08 into 09 it Was just completely apparent uh that the Real estate market was in free fall and I'm not not necessarily projecting that That's going to happen right now but I Think that there's a lot of people that Take for granted the fact that real Estate bull markets

And real estate bear markets take time To fully develop you know in the in the Crypto markets or in the equity markets Or Commodities or Futures you know just About every asset class can pivot on a Dime I mean credit conditions even can Can pivot on a dime with interest rates And Real estate is very different Real estate takes a substantial amount Of time uh to turn it's like turning the Titanic in terms of an asset class you Know from bullish to bearish or bearish To bullish and part of the reason why is Real estate prices uh in negotiations From one party to another And there's no sell button right there's No liquidation uh button that you can Hit and so there's not always a bid for Real estate and so where we are right Now I think is kind of analogous to 2008 Again not necessarily calling for an All-out crash but where there's some Denial built in there's there's people Who you know tend to believe this is Going to be a really short-term Um you know pause in the housing bull Market or uh maybe that we're going to Have you know a next Bull Run here in a Few years and that's going to be the big Blow off top there's a lot of theories Floating out there and I just you know I'm concerned that people might be Misled

Yeah I mean like even the chart that You're showing uh right now where it Kind of shows the idea of of a phase Going into 2025 2026 I I've seen this Chart Quite a bit and I I've I've followed Real estate you know to some degree uh Do you uh I mean it sounds like you're Not in agreement right that that we're Gonna have right this next leg up it's Almost like this next leg up that's Being talked about is what keeps people Uh constantly you know worried and Living in that state of denial is that What is that kind of what you're Thinking that that's exactly what it is Um you know this this chart has been Circulating it's all out there you know Around Twitter and and uh you know kind Of the real estate verse inside the Twitter world uh I've seen it on your Channel and I thought I would address This Um this chart to me is really based on Virtually almost nothing Um there's one cycle chart that I'm Going to show you here in just a moment That I think has been incredibly Profound Um that shows real estate activity Cycles and they have been so accurate And so predictable in fact I'm going to Show you that that real estate cycle Chart uh literally accurately predicted

To a t that we were going to top in 2020 2021 Um but this chart is showing a Hypothetical hey you know we're gonna Top out 25 26 uh 20 25 or 2026 in terms Of a year and we're going to have this Big blow off top is we sit here at the End of 2022 You know Ben you and I talked a little Bit about this before we started Recording like what would be the Catalyst to turn real estate from you Know a bearish backdrop right now to a Bullish backdrop and there's really two Things that could happen you know the FED could say hey are we going to print 10 trillion dollars we're going to Insert it into the economy we're gonna You know we're just gonna flood the Economy with money just like we did you Know with coven Um or they could say hey we're going to Reduce interest rates back down to zero Uh but those things take time those Things aren't things that will happen You know immediately unless maybe we had A nuclear war or something really big Happen a Black Swan that would turn the Tide that fast but I want to put this Into perspective for for a minute we Went from real interest rates like 30-year fixed mortgage rates of two and A half to two and three quarter percent To seven percent in like nine months I

Mean interest rates way more than Doubled almost tripled in like 9 10 11 Months and so people are like oh it went Up too fast it's gonna come back down And while I think that might be correct Let's assume just for a moment that Interest rates go from seven percent on A 30 year fixed to five percent that is Still double the low that we had of About two and a half percent you know Plus or minus 10 or 20 basis points That's almost double where we were At the bottom of the interest rate cycle And so you know prices have to reflect Interest rates because real estate is by Far one of the most interest rate Sensitive asset classes out there now Bonds are interest rates and so arguably You could say well you know bonds are Much more interest rate sensitive than They are but in terms of an asset class Real estate absolutely has Huge correlations to interest rates now Let me show you this cycle chart this is A real estate activity cycle chart that Goes back more than 200 years and you Know kind of like what I was saying on Your telegram Channel Um there's so many people who try and Get cute with timing Cycles or Predicting you know when the bottom of a Market is is going to happen or time Frames or top targets or bottom targets And you know

Here's what I found Simplicity is the Greatest uh complexity it's the greatest Sophistication if you just look at Things in simplistic terms a lot of Times you know you can be far more Successful that way than coming up with All these alternative theories This real estate activity chart shows Basically the last 225 years or more Um of real estate activity and you can See that prices follow and this is Roughly about an 18 and a half year real Estate cycle and you know we have Economic Cycles we have business Cycles We have interest rate Cycles there's Lots of different macro factors out There but if you just look at real Estate activity here in the United States this chart showed us that we were Going to have a peak around 2004 and we Talked a couple of years late and if you Can see the past few Cycles we've Actually topped Um you know anywhere between three to Five years plus or minus past the the Tip of where this projected cycle was Going to be And if you look here at you know 2004 When we were scheduled to top we topped Around 2006. And we found a bottom almost exactly When we were supposed to around 2011 and That put the next top right here where We are right now uh around 2020 2021.

The next bottom is 2030. that's the next Scheduled bottom for this market and I Think personally with the macro backdrop That we have the long-term interest rate Cycled very likely have bottomed in Terms of real rates we're looking at Years of a struggling real estate market And that's not to say that it's only Going to be One Direction over the next Eight years But I think that we're going to see much Lower prices before we see new all-time High prices does that make sense yeah Well one question I have is if you look At if we look at where we peaked in in 2006 and then we had a bottom about five Years later Um you know is there is there any reason Specifically why this drawdown is going To last you know based on this chart Like eight years or is it it is it based On on other things like what where is That I mean do you think it has to do You think the bottom really is out as Far as 2030 or do you think there'll There will be some some deals before Then it's a really great question I Think there's going to be deals before Them Um I when I look at Cycles you know one Of the things that I've I've learned Over the last 15 years studying Cycles As hard as I have is that uh direction Is more important than price and I think

Ben You have done a phenomenal job on your YouTube channel and into the cryptoverse Showing people and explaining to people That you know a lot of these price Targets are just arbitrary targets uh They're drawn I mean you have to look at The fundamentals of the market when uh You're trading it or when you're Invested in it and always be willing to Change your opinion I think Directionally uh we have headwinds in Real estate and in fact I would go so Far as to say that those headwinds are Going to push us backwards and values I'm really not concerned about saying I'm not going to buy real estate until Uh 2030. I think there's going to be Lots of deals between now and then but I Do think that we are you know just in That first you know five to ten percent Of the bear Market where people are Still very much in denial about the fact That we are in a bear Market in real Estate we have started a bear Market the Cycle has topped only when that is Common knowledge uh just like with Crypto is today right Um you know FTX is everywhere on the News Celsius was everywhere on the news A bitcoin price is everywhere in the News Um same thing is going to happen with Real estate when we start to see real

Estate being publicly admonished as a Terrible investment and when people say It's never going to go up again you know That's not necessarily the bottom but That is a bottoming signal and those are The times when you want to enter the Investment Arena I can tell you that I'm Still very very active in real estate Now and trying to buy real estate is Tough because people still believe that Values should be somewhere very close to Where they were last year or earlier This year and sellers expectations are Still very very very high and very Unrealistic so as we look out I'm not Saying we have to look for a bottom in Eight years in 2030 but but we have to Find real intrinsic value in real estate And even at five percent or six percent Or seven percent interest rates we're Still not anywhere near those intrinsic Levels of value Um I'll give you an example you and I Were talking about CD rates that are Approaching five percent right now Um there's cap rates capitalization Rates in commercial real estate uh and Multi-family that are lower than what You can get in a CD and the question is Why would you buy real estate deal with The the risks deal with the management Uh deal with the debt and by the way the Debt is higher than the cap rate is your Cost of capital is more than what a you

Know a piece of real estate yields today At least at market value and so those Are dislocations in the real estate uh Arena in the real estate asset class That have to come Unwound for us to find A real true bottom and I just I don't Think we're anywhere near it yet Um you know when we look at kind of Where we are everybody's seen this chart If you're on crypto Twitter or uh you're An investor of any type for sure you Have seen this chart Um where we look at where we are right Now in terms of the real estate cycle we Hit Euphoria last year I mean it was it Was literally fraught with headlines That real estate was never going to go Down that we were in a new paradigm Um and now I think we're finally Starting to see some aims anxiety in the Real estate market real estate sellers Real estate owners even real estate Buyers are having a sense of anxiety About where we are and that is literally Just the start of the bear Market I Think denial is very likely to come here In the next six to eight months Um and then beyond that we'll see fear Desperation Panic capitulation and Eventually just like what you've been Calling for with crypto is we're going To see despondency we're going to see People say uh I just don't care anymore I don't care about real estate I don't

Care about crypto those are the Bottoming signs that's when you really Want to go in and start buying with with Two fists the one caveat with real Estate this is what I love about real Estate is you know if you want to go buy Bitcoin today you have to pay what it's Selling for on the exchange with real Estate there's always the ability to get Uh or or C value in a piece of real Estate that someone else doesn't see or That the seller doesn't see so that's Why I say in real estate there's always Good deals out there no matter what the Market conditions are you just have to Find them You know it's interesting because that Chart of of sort of the more hopium view Like of another like higher to uh 2025 To 2026 it's interesting because my sort Of my gut so I'm not I'm not much of a Real estate investor although I'd like To be right I don't have experience and I know you have a lot of experience Going all the way back to you know the The financial crisis that's why one of The reasons why I value your opinion so Much is because I think the people who Have lived through the hard times are Are best able to navigate you know Future times right and I also think too That the people who have lived through The bad times uh and I I find myself Doing this as well a lot too is like you

Know you you can get bearish before Everyone else uh just because you'd Rather get out early than than live Through another major downturn right Like as you live through it and you just Don't really think their risk is worth The reward at that point but it's Interesting because a a theoretical peak In 2025 2026 again I as you I don't Agree with that's to me that's actually More likely where a major bottom could Be formed uh a capitulation and so it's Interesting how how that sort of Timeline might line up with people Saying hey this was supposed to be a new Paradigm and in fact real estate prices Are are just continuing to tank and so If you could inverse this chart it would Be perfect Yeah so my question and I I'm like a lot Of people who watch my channel might Have this question as well so you know As someone who's only ever really Invested in equities and and Cryptocurrencies and and some you know Some some Commodities but not really Real estate one of the things I was Considering right is let's suppose right We'll suppose in crypto we have another Cycle right where we have another bull Market and whether we you know whether It's a a tempered bull market because of High inflation or whatever hopefully you Know kind of beside the point right now

Do you see a scenario where there there There's a likelihood of of coming out of A of a of a bull market in say like 2025 For risk assets like equities or crypto And then at that point being a good time To convert to real estate if you see Some type of major capitulation is like Is that a theoretical timeline that we Should be uh not necessarily saying is Set in stone but at least something that Is is something to consider as like a Multi-year plan really great excellent Question Ben Um Let me say this real estate again is one Of those asset classes that will be Boring before it's exciting again And you know um I've seen so many Questions on Telegram and and Twitter Um and my YouTube channel and everybody Wants to you know try and pin the market Down to the month right I really believe That very likely we'll see the bottom in Real estate Very potentially in that 25 to 2026 you Know era Um and I don't necessarily think we have To see capitulation I think that given The the environment that we're in I Don't know that you know I would call 2008 2009 a crash I mean that was like a Real capitulation real estate Cycles Don't always Um end in quote capitulation uh a lot of

Times they just end by getting boring You see values decline everybody's Expectations or that values are Declining nobody's interested in it Anymore and uh I do think that we'll Probably have seen the bottom and the Equity markets between now and then and You could certainly rotate from equities Into real estate and I I think the Opportunity zone is you know potentially Years long like I don't think this is Something where you have to be really Worried about you know missing the Bottom so to speak uh I think that you We're going to Drudge along the bottom For a couple of years before things Start to get exciting again and Appreciation starts to actually pick up In a positive way I do think that that Taking advantage of low prices and you Know Bitcoin Um and the equity markets over the next You know six to nine months and then Rolling those gains into real estate When the time comes I I think is a great Strategy it's my own strategy in fact Um it's just a matter of finding good Deals and I would just really encourage All your listeners Um to do their very best to find good Deals no matter what the market Environment environment is so that is Your greatest protection so really this Idea of a capitulation is is somewhat

Perhaps ill-advised or misinformed based On recency bias from from the financial Crisis but in fact what you're saying And I I think is a valid point is it Might you know you could argue that a Capitulation would make it easy but Potentially the hard part is the time The time-based uh part of the bear Market That's right and you know uh it this Isn't meant to be offensive at all to Any of your viewers but when you're Coming from a world like crypto where You have massive run you know massive Runs to the upside like thousands of Percent and you see you know 80 90 Drawdowns and you see capitulation and You can see it on a chart right and it's It's there big red candles you can watch It Um real estate is very different And if you're looking at real estate in The same context that you would you know A chart of Bitcoin or ethereum or any Other crypto Um and you're waiting for that Capitulation that big red giant candle Where everybody goes you know it's the End of crypto it's the end of Bitcoin Um it's not going to come in real estate That's just not how real estate works And that's why it's really important to Put into context what asset class it is That you're investing in

Right yeah and I I think it's You know it's interesting looking at These sort of longer term real estate Charts because as you know being in in Crypto in equities you're not used to Looking at like 20-year Cycles or Something right like it's more like Oh You mean I have to wait four more years You know Um but but real estate certainly it can It can take a lot longer so so it sounds Like sort of summarize what you're Saying uh it sounds like just to make Sure I have a good grasp one it sounds Like you know the market conditions Right now do not support the idea of Another leg higher in the real estate Market mainly because of high interest Rates Um and a fed that's not going to really Be printing money as long as inflation Remains High it sounds like you're Saying probably we're just simply going To be in a bear Market there doesn't Necessarily have to be a capitulation it Could just be a slow bleed and and Um and don't worry don't spend too much Time thinking about missing the bottom Because once the Bottom's here you Should have plenty of time and by plenty Of time I mean years to to acquire real Estate is that is that more or less a General you hit the nail on the head Yeah that's exactly what I'm trying to

To get across to people and Um and it takes a lot of the pressure Off too right I mean I I know I look at Bitcoin every single day You know I'm waiting for the bottom I Mean I follow your channel I follow your Work uh religiously and Um you know I'm just as eager and Anxious to try and catch the bottom as As the next guy Um That's that's almost a really unhealthy Thing to do probably for anything but Especially with real estate because it Does move so slowly Um a lot of people take for granted you Know your average real estate Transaction takes a couple of months And even when you're appraising real Estate and if you know if you go to buy A house today Ben Um you know you're going to hire an Appraiser or your lender is going to Hire an appraiser to find out what it's Worth but that appraiser is looking in The rear view mirror by the last you Know 60 to 90 days looking at what else Is sold and so you know a lot of the Real estate industry it moves so slowly Because your your basing transactions And present value on the past and it Takes getting forward at least a couple Of few months to to start to see that Change and see the winds start to change

And we're just kind of getting there Right now so you know let me take the Pressure off of all your viewers right Now who are really worried about you Know being uh ready to to buy like You're gonna have plenty of time I think The best advice that I could give and Ben I know you give this advice often is You know stay really well healed Financially and stay prepared Everybody's waiting for the the FED to Pivot and they think that real estate is Going to Skyrocket again or that it's Going to recover huge you know the Minute that the FED pivots The reality is the Fed is only going to Pivot and if there's massive Financial Damage in the economy higher Unemployment rates Um you know spending down inflation Certainly under control Um you know really bad things are going To make the FED pivot nobody's going to Go rushing to buy real estate in that Kind of an environment and so you know This isn't a catch a falling knife or Catch the bottom or try and time the Bottom to a month or two this is really An asset class that is going to give you Many years to acquire substantial Amounts and with real estate sometimes It takes that long to acquire a really Good substantial big portfolio Right yeah one question I have for you

And and you know this is sort of looking At at prior Trends and roles and I know You've said this on my channel before as Well so perhaps my opinion is already Somewhat molded by what you've Previously said but one of the things I Can't help but think about especially in The context of a multi-year downturn in The real estate market is how that Affects that you know the valuations of Risk assets because if you know if your House is worth less I mean I feel like a Lot of people tie their value their net Worth and whatnot to you know equity in Their home and and um if if that's down A lot You know perhaps they're not going out To buy risk outside as much perhaps Perhaps if uh you know if they have Bought a house at a higher interest rate And and they're also worried about Unemployment are they going to be going Out and buying risk assets so I mean What are your thoughts about about that I mean you know suppose the bottom isn't Uh not not not now but let's suppose a Year from now we can look look at the Look at the equity you know the the S P 500 we can look at Bitcoin and say all Right at some point it looks like it put In a fairly well defined bottom let's Suppose in 2023 Do you think that A longer term downturn in the in the in

The real estate market could temper Returns in Risk assets or do you think They're not going to be correlated yes And I think and I I been again another Great question the answer is yes and I Think that is the most likely outcome Um you know one of the guys that I Follow I know you know everybody has Their their favorite investor that they Follow whether it's Ray dalio and his You know um new paradigms and and you Know that kind of stuff uh or you're a Kevin O'Leary guy which in crypto right Now you're probably not Um I follow Stan druckenmiller I think Stan is one of the most Um cautious Smart intellectual uh well-balanced Well-reasoned rational investors that I've ever seen And you know it was really his interview I think about six months ago where he Said you know if you look back into Historically High inflation periods of Time you can go through a decade after a Secular bull market in inequities You can go through a decade without Hitting a new all-time high you can just Have stagnant returns you know you you Have periods of time where the market Goes up in periods of time where it goes Down and periods of time where it goes Up and you know it's it's really almost A swing Traders you know kind of in an

Environment and those periods of time Might be months they might be quarters They might even be years where you know It goes up and then it retraces for Years and it goes up for a couple of Years and retraces a couple of years and I kind of see the environment that we're In right now and the environment that We're going into Is very likely Um at least you know five eight maybe 10 12 years of stagnant returns Um you know measured by all-time highs So I think it's very possible that both Real estate and equities do not see new All-time highs you know for another Decade I mean it's very very very Possible and there's a lot of factors And far too many for us to sit down and Actually dissect and figure out what's Going to happen all you can do is play Probabilities But as we sit here today with the Backdrop in in real estate and in fact Uh you know if it's okay with you Ben I'm gonna I'm gonna bring up Um I'm gonna bring a trading view here real Quick And I I want to just show you Uh and I know you've showed this as well In the past I want to show the interest Rates like the mortgage rates So if we Zoom back here we can go way

Way way back You know this is like 1980 back here at this high and you can See what interest rate did Real Estate Exist back then believe it or not it did One of the oldest asset classes on the Planet Ben in 1981 we hit a high in interest Rates we were almost 18 18 19 you know You you hear your grandparents talk About these stories when they bought Their house their first house with a 14 Or 15 mortgage rate look at the rates Over the last 42 years We've been in a massive you know bull Market uh in real estate uh you know Driven not only by M2 and money supply And you know natural inflation through Having a fiat currency but also through Lower lows in real rates And we have this really well-defined Trend line that we broke uh late last Year early this year and we broke it Decisively I mean it wasn't just a Little a little blip above it like you Know maybe what we saw back here in 2018 I mean we decisively broke out through This and one of the things that you talk About on your channel a lot is hey in a Bull market in crypto there's a lot of Consolidation periods there's a lot of Pullbacks that result in you know higher Highs like there's many many higher Highs

Um and in a bear Market there's many Many lower lows and there's many Consolidation periods in in Bear markets Well if in fact we have changed from a Secular Um you know Market in in interest rates Where rates are Continually going lower And we've now changed that to Potentially the point where rates will Continually go higher over the Foreseeable future I mean Ben the potential is that Interest rates could be higher now we Might be in a consolidation period for The next six months But if real interest rates continue to Go higher over the next couple few years That's going to stress Equity markets It's going to stress debt markets it's Going to stress real estate markets Um it could really put us into a a very Tough spot where over the course of the Next you know five seven eight years It's tough to find ways to make money in Real estate it might be tough to find Ways to make money in anything and so You know following Stanley Druckenmiller's Present forecast we might just be stuck In no man's land between the lows and The highs For the next decade and in housing you Know there's a couple other charts I can

I can show you here Um you know a couple of really really Interesting charts here this is a Housing inventory estimate of vacant Units and you can see that you know Through covid we hit a low and of course Because everyone was staying at home we Are still way below Trend in terms of Vacant housing units And I think that vacant housing units Being people that have moved out of Their home and need to sell is going to Precipitably move up into this Normalized area here and when that Happens that's pressure on real estate Values uh if we look at Housing affordability index uh this is The National Association of Realtors Housing affordability index uh this data Only goes back into 2020 but over the Last couple of years couple few years We're at an all-time low since this data Was put out on this chart uh why because We have seven percent plus mortgage Rates while values have doubled over the Last two years and so you know you have Interest rates moving up with values Moving up it's just so much more Expensive for everybody in every metric Um you know you have Um housing starts you know we've seen Some really wild swings especially Through covid but if you go back through You know housing starts historically

We're still historically high in terms Of number of housing starts and I think Builders are going to get absolutely Crushed when this bear Market really Comes to to be you know a lot of people Don't understand Builders still have to Pay these inflated prices for building Materials While buyers have all but dried up Because they can't afford the mortgage Payments we just saw the housing Affordability index at a low you know a Lot of that hasn't been built in yet for These these uh home builders so you know There's lots of different metrics that We can talk about and go through I mean We have delinquency rates on Commercial Loans at all time lows that stuff is all Going to start to reverse course and Change but if you look at you know the Cycles here of of commercial loan Defaults they take years to play out Years to play out we haven't even Started to turn the corner yet and so uh We're going to see several years of pain In front of us before we really have Signs that show us in a really Meaningful way that uh that the real Estate market has bottomed and that There's real intrinsic value there One of the things that I and it's Interesting this last chart that you Pulled up the delinquency rate on loans It's kind of at the same level or just

Below like back in 2006 where it really Started to spike up but again you know It could take years to ultimately play Out well one thing I think about with The uh the fed and and them raising Rates right because it might lead some People to question well why do it right Why raise rates if they know that it's Going to do this but it seems to me like It's almost like a necessary component Of the business cycle because it it will It will sort of expose the zombie Companies Um that are not profitable right and are Not really that valuable they're going To have to close down and one thing I Think about too is that low interest Rates are are somewhat of a sign of a Very weak economy you know like if your Interest rates are at like zero percent Or you know 0.25 like the economy must Be very weak if it can't even handle Like you know like two percent or Something Um right but this kind of kind of takes Me back to that like you know that Meme Of like you know hard times uh creating You know strong people and and then Those strong people creating good times And and so you can kind of see the phase Of the business cycle that we're in Right now where we're going into hard Times because the fed's raising interest Rates right and they're doing it because

Of course inflation Um but eventually it'll it'll likely Lead to two good times I mean even if It's even if it's five years away or ten Years away right who really knows how Long it's going to take but I suppose That's sort of the light at the end of The tunnel right like it will eventually Lead back into into Good Times uh it Just may take a while first and then Going back to your point about you know New all-time highs and whatnot about you Know it could it could it take a decade One thing one thing to remember too like If you go back to the 70s where we had a Period of high inflation we actually did Put in new highs in nominal terms but Sometimes in real terms right where You're actually accounting for inflation You're not putting in new all-time high So like uh technically maybe it goes to A higher price but perhaps inflation Adjusted it could actually be lower than The prior Peak was was it the 80s that We saw a uh you know I was born in 83 so Um I I wasn't old enough to really Remember I think it was the 80s where we Saw a period of just really really Stagnant returns so so the 70s um so so Basically if you look at the charts like Basically from actually like the late 60s until the early 80s it was like it Was like a period of 10 to 15 years Where the s p would put in like a

Slightly higher high but it would also Put in a lower low as well right but That was also coupled with a with Basically a decade of high inflation you Know where where and that's why you know When Powell says things like they they Don't want to make the mistake of Loosening monetary policy too early what What I think he's referring to is even Going back to that period when they did Loosen it too early inflation just came Right back right so to to me I would Almost I'm sort of of the opinion and I Think a lot of people would probably Prefer this as well like I would almost Rather them over tighten and lead us to Like a capitulation because I think it Would actually Band-Aid off right rip The Band-Aid off right and something Like that going into a recession one Thing that is good about recessions I Mean the bad thing is that people lose Their jobs but one of the good things About recessions is that it actually has A it's a great way to bring inflation Back down quickly Um yeah and so you know that's what I'm Sort of looking at right now is like if We can If the Fed if they're if they're Resolved if they stay resolved in in Their approach here and they keep doing What they're doing you know who's to say They can't bring inflation back down Um within the next like 12 to 18 months

Or so you know I I there's there's Certainly a chance that they could Especially with dovish members coming Out and saying they might hold interest Rates above five percent for 11 months Or something yeah yeah and I think it's Very possible Ben I think you know I Think people are really making a mistake I mean I I remember when we started this Interest rate heikel uh hike cycle uh Everyone was saying you know and fed Pivot coming in three two one you know They're they're just waiting and it's They're gonna pivot by June they're Gonna pivot by August they're going to Pivot by September they're gonna pivot By Christmas so here we are at Christmas And you know we still have hikes on the Table it's very very likely Um and so you know people have have Called this wrong continually Um Ben I want to leave you with one last Chart that I I just brought up and and I Know we're running short on time you've Been so gracious with your time Um this is a chart on trading view of Real disposable income Um this is you know basically every tick Is one month and if you look at where we Are today in terms of you know 15.1 Trillion of of disposable personal Income Um we haven't seen that level since Right before covet and the economy was

Doing reasonably well during that period Of time we saw this huge spikes you know Basically with all the the money Printing that was done you know the Direct stimulus to the economy Um but I gotta tell you if you look Historically and you come back to Periods of time where there was you know Some some rough times Um you can actually see it decline for a Couple of years and we've come off a Really really big spike but we're still Historically in a very elevated level And I just see this as another indicator That we're not there yet that the Economy hasn't seen enough pain yet There's very likely more pain to come Real estate uh is a big part of that Because real estate is Um you know a lot of people's biggest Assets their biggest investment it's Their biggest savings account uh that They use to tap into with home equity Lines of credit and things like that When they need capital I just think this Is a bit of an ominous sign and I just Want to encourage people to look at the Whole picture right all the things that We're talking about today uh look at the Whole picture and if you can decisively You know dismantle and debunk all the Things that we're talking about today And disagree with you and I and you're Bullish God bless you take take that

Position and do it Um be bullish but in my mind in my Rational thinking and through the hard Times that that I've been through in my Life economically I've been in business Since I was basically out of diapers Um you know about 10 12 years old is When I started my first businesses and I've lived through a couple of economic Cycles and I'm just pretty well Convinced that based on everything I'm Seeing right now We've got a doozy of a cycle in front of Us and it's just time to be cautious And one thing you know that I constantly Remind myself of too is that like yeah Things look bearish and as I'm sure you Know right it's those times that Actually is where all the money is Eventually made the people that that can Stick around I think that's the hardest Part is just sticking around yeah and Can I tell you Ben what you just hit on Is something that I wish everyone would Take away from this video which is The greatest wealth is made from bear Markets I mean massive insane wealth I I Was literally probably passed bankrupt I Mean it was worth far less than zero in 2010 and I clawed my way back out of it Deal by deal month after month year by Year and Um it was the fact that I was clawing my Way out of a bear Market that allowed me

To rebuild and I I gotta tell you the Bear Market that we have coming Um you know even the bear Market that We're in right now in in Bitcoin Um there's going to be some amazing Opportunities and some incredible wealth Made from people who are able to Recognize the opportunity at or near the Lows and so that's where the big wealth The generational wealth uh can be made So I really encourage people to not look At this as like a Debbie Downer video or Jordan and Ben are way too bearish and This is depressing Um we're helping you identify uh periods Of time and opportunities that are going To help you make a lot of money I don't View it as being pessimistic I view it As being realistic right and one of the Things I say is that blind optimism gets You nowhere it might make you feel good For a few months but then what happens When the next low comes right right Um but again why is wise words as always From Jordan Weirs if you guys aren't Subscribed to him I would encourage you To do so he has a YouTube channel I will Link that down in the description below He also is on Twitter so his uh you know His um his links and stuff to his social Media platforms will be in the Description below in the pinned comment And in the description so make sure you Check that out

Um he puts out plenty of great content Mostly talks about the real estate Market but I I think he occasionally Will uh dabble in the crypto verse here And there which is not not a bad place To be all the time maybe right now it's Not the best time but Um but anyways Jordan it's a pleasure to Have you here as always and I'm sure We'll thank you on here in a few more Months to give us an update thanks Ben Really appreciate it thanks for having Me on Bye

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