Raoul Pal Explains the Best Crypto Strategy 2024

Why is the NASDAQ up 40 percent and why Is you know Bitcoin up 60 it's because They're already pricing it crypto summer Comes sometime next year or that's when Things start to get crazy again after a Month's of stagnation in the crypto Markets there seems to be a light at the End of the tunnel 2024 is likely to be The next big year for crypto and not Only because of the Bitcoin halving so I Think macro is actually the dominant Factor and the halving is a false Narrative but it doesn't matter because It still works so what are the catalysts That will spark the next crypto bull Market and in what time frames but most Importantly how should you prepare for What is coming in 2024 Raul Paul macro Investor and CEO of real Vision shared His insights in our latest coin Telegraph interview before we get into The conversation as always don't forget To like the video and subscribe to our Channel I'm Giovanni let's get started A lot of things happened since we last Talk in early May 2022 back then it was Right before the collapse of Terra Luna And the beginning of this domino effect That resulted into the FTX collapse how Has your view on the crypto Market Changed since then Zero and look I've been around this Since 2012. Um I've seen these

Um And it's usually the same mistake Happens most times over is people build Businesses Based on Leverage On an 80 volatility asset and then when The asset starts going down everybody Blows up yes it's quiet right now in Crypto but the ongoing adoption let's Say um the number of active addresses Keeps rising over time even last year in A down 75 Market the number of active Addresses Rose 42 percent Um which is remarkable so for me Everything's on track so I'm curious to Know your your view on the current macro Picture and how it is impacting crypto At the moment So last year in 2022 We started to see all the Forward-looking macro indicators stuff Like liquidity Um stuff like the ism survey all of this Stuff was falling sharply it was all Signaling that we were going to go into Recession All assets fell In 2022 I mean everything crypto Equities bonds the lot because it was Pricing in a recession because of the Inflation the interest rate Rises all of Those things So for me it all got priced in last year Then this year we've seen what I refer

To as crypto spring but we've also seen Macro spring which is the Forward-looking indicators are now at The bottom and starting to rise quite Sharply So it suggests that we're transitioning Through into better times so where the Economy is right now is probably at its Slowest point So a lot of people is like well where's My recession it's most likely to happen In this quarter and and maybe q1 but We're already seeing the light at the End of the tunnel on the other side Which is why assets have been strong and Everyone's like what why is the NASDAQ Up 40 and why is you know Bitcoin up 60 It's because they're already pricing it So I'm incredibly positive so why is That well if you think about what Happens at this point in the cycle at This point in the cycle when we're going Into that recession phase we're really In the Slowdown phase inflation Falls Unemployment usually Rises the central Bank usually stops hiking which it feels That the fed and certainly the ECB have Got to and others So that takes some of the pressure off Markets And then as an inflation comes down Unemployment Rises or something breaks Like the banks Then we get what I refer to as more

Cowbell which is more stimulus which is The likely use of use of quantitative Easing cutting of interest rates we've Seen the US give some stimulus to the Banks So we're starting that stimulus cycle Early stage and again these are the kind Of things that crypto loves that's the Golden times and that's where we're Coming That's interesting the way you uh adopt This expression like crypto spring Crypto summer it's the same sort of Expression used by Mark Hughes covered Into his view crypto summer has already Kind of started while I'm more agreeing With you that this doesn't look like Exactly a crypto summer it looks more But we are still in a sort of slow pace Yeah situation and I think that we might See the first signs of summer so if you Think of it in a calendar sometime by Around May the day suddenly you start to Get some really nice hot days and the Weather starts to get better that's what I think we'll get to by the end of this Year so the markets will feel stronger Um people will have a bit more optimism Although the economy is going to look Bad Um that's where you start transitioning Towards Summer probably the real summer Doesn't get going till Q2 2024 that's when things start to get

Crazy again I just want to ask you about A major Catalyst that everybody is Waiting for for next year which is the Bitcoin halving everybody has its eyes On this event as one of the main Categories that will likely spark the Next big bull run and we saw that Happening in 2020 and four years every Every four years before then Um so historically that has always been A big Catalyst but on the other hand we Have just a very few of those events to Kind of Base a scientific theory on so What's your thought on this how do you Think the halving will play out this Time so I think the halving is Coincidental to the macro cycle it just So happens that in 2008 nine magic Things happened one All debts all interest payments on all Debts were forgiven we went to zero Interest rates everywhere That reset the global economy is exactly The same time as Bitcoin came out So they're all birth zero interest rates And Bitcoin at Birth at the same time And the macro cycle is this debt refi Cycle every three and a half years to Four years that happens that exactly Corresponds to the crypto cycle I think It's coincidental so I think macro is Actually the dominant factor and the Halving is a false narrative but it Doesn't matter because it still works

Right it's the same cycle so you can Measure any way you want so if we go Okay well what's going to be happening Next year so next year The central bank will be cutting rates Next year There might be fiscal stimulus because There's an election Next year If the economy is slow They're likely to be doing conservative Easing So that's the full set of things that You've seen on every cycle so far Um so yeah I think it's the same Now there is a risk that is not of Course I understand that that something Changes and the central banks stay Higher for longer nothing changes Liquidity doesn't come back But that's yet to be proven so What do you think is the potential here In terms of price appreciation Look I've learned from the past as we Don't give price appreciation because You get beaten over the head by people For it so you know it's just not it's Not worth it anymore but Normally Prices you know Prices rise from these color levels 5x plus you know they it goes beyond the All-time high and maybe Doubles that or

Or triples that that's the kind of Zone That normally happens does that happen This time I have no idea I don't see why Anything's changed Um you know and I think the whole crypto Market Bitcoin usually underperforms in The bull cycle Um so you know whatever Bitcoin does Heath will do more Solana might do more Than that and something else whatever Will do a lot more than that Um so that's because it's there's a risk Curve same as there are in all markets So that's what I'm thinking will happen This time around I don't see any reason It shouldn't but you know as you said There's not been many examples so far of This So you've got kind of a few cycles and It's like is it going to happen every Time who the hell knows I remember the Last time we talked you um where you Were saying that You are located a lot of your wealth Into ethereum at least your crypto Allocations where switching Focus from Bitcoin to ethereum Um since then a lot of happened how Bullish are you on ethereum So for me it's still my core asset Um because there's so many applications Built on top of it And that's only growing over time and Then you've got the layer twos and

That's scaling the whole Space so you Know I remain very optimistic so Um eighth is still my main focus and my Main position and then I have some Bitcoin obviously and the other bigger Position I've got is Solana which is Kind of under owned it got killed in in The down cycle down 97 same as eth did Back in 2018 It then We saw economic activity picking up on Chain if Solana continues to pick up Economic activity in the way that it's Doing it will outperform me simple as That and looking at previous Cycles Those kind of things tend to do you know That 10 20 30 x You know if did 47x from the low from 20 Uh from uh 2018. uh Solana bottomed it I Can't remember what it was nine Something like that so could it do 47x Maybe maybe not from the from the low Price we'll have to wait and see no I Have just a final question for you Rose For all the retail investors that are Watching us now that they are waiting For 2024 uh as like a big year for Crypto that are looking for that are Looking forward to for the market to Recover what would be a piece of advice For all of them from you in crypto Spring the best thing to do is be Prepared what am I going to do in this Cycle am I going to fomo in how am I

Going to position myself what am I gonna Do so I like to take notes to think About to pre-prepare four things you Know where could I be wrong what could Go on what risk will I take how will I Stop myself doing the stupid things Because people do stupid things they Lose their minds in a bowl Market if it Comes Um so I think there's that the other Thing is to educate yourself learn how To invest understand the risks the Opportunities and learn from the experts Yeah that's what we do at real Vision What we're actually doing with Ledger is Something quite special we've got a Festival of learning so it's an online Festival of learning it's free to join And there we're going to help educate You with the smartest most famous people In the space everybody's going to be There Um and it should be a lot of fun people Get a lot out of it so it's called the Next digital asset wave and how to Prepare for it which is exactly what We're talking about And people who come and join us on that Again it's free you can complete a Ledger quest which is this gamified Ledger education experience around nft's Web 3 crypto uh you can mint a proof of Knowledge nft to show that you've Educated yourself and again I think it's

Great to hold yourself accountable for Stuff like that and then there's a Chance to win a thousand I think there's Sorry this yeah there's a hundred Co-branded Ledger devices it's a real Vision Ledger mashup so anybody's Interested it's a it's an amazing event A lot of good people gonna be there You'll get educated you'll learn how to Prepare for it for ahead think about the Risks and I've said people lose their Minds in Bull markets Um so go to realvision.com forward slash Festival And just join us it's free it's on the 12th and 13th of October looking forward To it and um yeah it's always a pleasure To have you on roll and let's see Perhaps let's talk again uh in a few Months and see how the macro picture Will have changed by then I look forward To it Foreign