Nuclear War INCOMING?! Will Putin Do The UNTHINKABLE?!

The risk of nuclear war is at its Highest level since the end of the Cold War as Russian Battlefield losses in Ukraine mount an increasingly desperate Vladimir Putin is threatening to use the Most terrifying and taboo weapons in his Arsenal so could Putin ever launch a Nuclear attack and if so what impact Could this have on the war and indeed The entire world well hold on to your Seats because that’s exactly what we’ll Be finding out in this video Before we go any further it’s worth Remembering how we got to this point Well it’s been clear for some time that The Russians are losing the war in Ukraine while they initially set their Sights on taking Kiev they’ve now had to Retreat and focus their attentions on Other regions firstly it was in the South and now in the east However given the massive amounts of Support that Ukraine has been getting From NATO Russia is also losing ground There This comes after Putin annexed four Ukrainian regions in a contested Referendum last month indeed the losses Have gotten so bad that Putin himself Has even acknowledged them something That one would have thought Unthinkable Only a few weeks ago Perhaps another sign of Putin’s intense Desperation is his recent partial

Mobilization plan thousands upon Thousands of Russian citizens with Inadequate military training have been Called up to step into the line cannon Fodder for a senseless conflict as the Situation for Russia has worsened so Have put in statements become more Bellicose and a favorite bit of rhetoric Has involved making veiled threats to Use nuclear weapons in the same speech In which he announced the partial Mobilization he also said quote our Country has different types of weapons As well and some of them are more modern Than the weapons NATO countries have and Quote those who are using nuclear Blackmail against us should know that The wind rose can turn around Furthermore on the 30th of September When he announced the annexation of Those four oblasts of Ukraine he again Declared that Russia had a right to Protect those lands with all forces at Its disposal He then went on to cite the U.S bombing Of Hiroshima and Nagasaki as setting a Precedent that intimidated quote both Our country and the whole world Now this seemed to suggest that the U.S Actions to end the second world war Would justify comparable Russian actions Nearly eight decades later These statements were not taken lightly By leaders around the world in the U.S

President Biden said that the world Would face a quote Armageddon if Putin Used any sort of nuclear weapons in Ukraine he also said quote it’s the First time since the Cuban Missile Crisis we have the threat of a nuclear Weapon if in fact things continue down The path they’re going NATO’s Secretary General says that Putin would be Crossing a line if he used nukes and the UK is already wargaming potential Russian nuclear strikes in Ukraine talk About escalation In Ukraine itself meanwhile president Zielenski has stated that Putin has Already begun to prepare Russian Society For a nuclear strike against its Neighbor although I would take those Statements with a pinch of salt either Way it’s quite clear that the nuclear Rhetoric has been dialed up way higher Than feels comfortable In fact according to some intelligence Analysts the probability of tactical Nuclear weapon use in Ukraine has gone From about one to five percent at the Beginning of the war all the way to 20 To 25 percent yikes So are we on the precipice of a nuclear Annihilation Well not so fast it’s important to first Understand the difference between Strategic and tactical nuclear weapons That’s because the weapons that most

People tend to associate with nuclear Attacks are the Strategic kind these are The large extinction level devices that Could level cities and be launched from Across the other side of the world on Intercontinental ballistic missiles These are the devices that have yields That can be anywhere from 100 kilotons To over a Megaton Now the reason that these are called Strategic is that their main purpose is As a deterrent essentially they’re there To make sure that no one would use them Because of the principle of mutually Assured destruction or mad Quite simply no one would use these Weapons because if they did then they Would face an immediate counter-attack That would also kill them therefore Everyone dies and no one wins however Strategic nukes are different to what Are termed tactical nuclear weapons These are not focused on Mutual Deterrence and are more useful in Battlefield environments for example They could be used to counter Overwhelming conventional forces like Large formations of infantry and armor These weapons vary in their yield from Anywhere between fractions of a kiloton To over 50 kilotons tactical nukes can Also be loaded onto Delivery Systems That are used traditionally in Conventional Warfare

These include the likes of short-range Missile systems gravity bombs or Naval Anti-ship and anti-submarine Torpedoes Small nuclear warheads can even be fired From artillery pieces Their main function as already noted is To be used on the battlefield or against Military and civilian infrastructure Hence the term tactical now the US has Slowly been getting rid of its tactical Nuclear weapons as modern battlefields Have allowed them to achieve similar Ends with Advanced Conventional Weapons If you want to get an idea of how Effective these modern weapons are Compared to standard Conventional Weapons then this 1977 U.S Army guide on Battlefield nuclear warfare is well Worth a read I’ve linked to it below This chart is particularly interesting As it shows how artillery systems Compare to Tactical nukes and the impact They have on losses quite simply from The U.S military’s perspective the ends Don’t justify the means of using Battlefield nukes Russia however doesn’t have nearly as Advanced Conventional Weapons hence it’s Been reluctant to get rid of ITS Tactical nukes fun fact part of the Reason that nuclear non-proliferation Agreements recently broke down was as a Result of Russia’s reluctance to Negotiate over ITS Tactical nuke arsenal

When it comes to numbers by some Estimate Russia still has around 2 000 Of these tactical nukes that experts Believe are held in an estimated 47 National and base level storage Facilities across the country The point is that if Russia is ever Going to start lobbying nukes it’s more Likely to start as tactical weapons Limited in range and power albeit still Horrifyingly destructive But How likely exactly is that Well there are a number of different Ways in which Putin could use nukes in Ukraine firstly he could instruct his Army to carry out a test strike Somewhere in the Black Sea for instance The goal of this would be to show Ukraine NATO and the rest of the world That he has these weapons and could use Them The only problem with this is that it Would have zero impact on the actual Battlefront yes it could unnerve the Ukrainians but it could equally further Embolden them It also runs the risk of even more NATO Support for Ukraine as well as Potentially isolating Russia’s few Allies such as China so that would Likely be a pretty pointless move then There is the possibility that Putin Could use a tactical nuke on the Battlefield to help retake some of the

Ground that he’s lost in the past few Months but even then the efficacy of Such a move is likely to be limited and To get an idea of it I’ll be leaning on This really helpful analysis by William Al Burke director of strategy technology And arms control at The International Institute of strategic studies also Linked to below Now as I mentioned earlier tactical Nukes are only really useful in those Situations where there are large Concentrations of troops artillery or Tanks this does not seem to be the case In Ukraine where most of the troops are Spread out across the eastern part of The country you would not be able to Really inflict that much damage on the Ukrainian Army itself Smaller nuclear weapons those below 10 Kilotons will have even less of an Impact and their efficacy is overtaken By those of high-end Precision Mass Effect artillery according to Alberti Defeating the ukrainians on the Battlefield would require dozens of These weapons for example in that Previous U.S Army guide the U.S planned To use 136 nuclear strikes to achieve a result Over a 60-mile front and right now the Front in the battle for Ukraine is a Staggering 400 miles long so it’s pretty Clear that there are a few if any

Tactical benefits from using these Weapons in Ukraine moreover the use of Any nukes would be a severe escalation Of the conflict and could even provoke a NATO Counter-Strike this is something it Has threatened and it’s the last thing Putin’s Army needs at the moment Then of course there is the horrifying Possibility that Putin could launch These smaller nukes on population Centers and cities This could either be to effectively Decapitate Ukraine’s government or to Break the will of the people This latter effect was exactly the Reason why the U.S dropped its nuclear Bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Unprecedented civilian casualties Eventually forced the Japanese to Surrender effectively the ultimate Embodiment of shock and awe if weapons Like these were used in Ukraine then it Would cause similar destruction however This will most definitely be met by Strong retaliatory NATO strikes the site Of a country using a nuke on civilians Would shock the entire world moreover There’s no guarantee that it would Actually break the will of the Ukrainian People to fight on Russia has been Sending missiles and attack drones into Ukrainian cities for the past few months And the resolve of Ukrainian citizens Doesn’t appear to be wavering so if we

Were to assume that Putin is a Completely rational actor then using any Sort of nuke however small would clearly Be an irrational act but let’s assume he Isn’t rational that he was hell-bent on Causing destruction in Ukraine with as Many tactical nukes as he saw fit what Should we be looking out for in that Case well the first sign of trouble Would be any movement of those tactical Nukes from Storage to the field as I Mentioned these weapons are held in a Number of different storage facilities Across Russia If the Russians plan to use these nukes Then they would have to be moved towards The Battlefront they would need to be Loaded onto aircraft ships or iskander Missile launchers this is not something That can be done in privacy now thanks To this really helpful blog post by Pavel podvig an expert on Russia’s Nuclear forces we can get a rough idea Of how the movements would look if the Order did indeed come Firstly the defense ministry’s 12th main Directorate which is in charge of the Weapons would remove them from their Storage units they would then be moved Into specialized super containers loaded Onto dedicated Warhead Transportation Vehicles and escorted by specialized Security vehicles and radiological Defense units then once they reach their

Destination they would need significant Operational security as well unloading And loading nuclear weapons to a Delivery system is arguably one of the Most risky steps of the whole process Not only because of potential human Error but also because of potential Enemy attacks all of these movements Could easily be tracked by satellites Drones and spy planes and you can be Pretty sure that the US is watching Those storage facilities in Russia like A hawk yes perhaps the Russians could Try and sneak some of these nukes away From the facilities but even then it Could be hard to do without tipping off Potential informants inside the Russian Military According to that previous blog post by William Al Burke the coordination would Require tens of thousands of soldiers so If U.S intelligence Services spot any Suspicious movements inside Russia then The U.S president is going to be Informed right away As you may recall from before The Invasion back in February Biden was Continuously warning that a Russian Invasion was imminent in fact he even Had the confidence to say that Putin had Given the orders to invade a few days Before it actually happened Hence you can be pretty certain that he Would be doing the same in the lead-up

To any sort of nuclear strike his tone Would have to be even more Stern too as It would have to come with warnings of Severe counter-attacks however in recent Statements Biden has stated that he Doesn’t think Putin is going to use Nukes hence we can with a reasonable Degree of certainty believe that Preparations haven’t even begun so the Prospect of a nuclear attack on Ukraine Appears relatively unlikely and if such An attack was being prepared we would Theoretically be warned about it long Before the weapons reached their actual Launch sites nevertheless the ante is Being upped Last week NATO announced it would be Kicking off nuclear drills involving 60 Aircraft including fighter jets and B-52 Bombers yes these drills are an annual Occurrence but they still risk dialing Up the nuclear temperature when what’s Really needed is an attempt to cool Things down indeed the mere fact that We’re speaking about nuclear war is Scary enough because there can be no Winners in a nuclear Armageddon and we Shouldn’t be playing a game of nuclear Chicken while no rational individual Would want to use nukes you cannot Always assume that your opponent is Rational and you also have to ask Yourself at what point seemingly Rational people make irrational

Decisions If Putin is backed into a corner and has No other options on the table would he Decide that nuclear is the only exit Route could it be the only way for him To stem his Battlefield losses and exact Revenge on the west for its perceived Aggression and the assistance it has Given to his Ukrainian enemies There are also the persistent rumors That Putin has an incurable and terminal Disease now these can’t really be Verified but if they are indeed true Then he someone arguably less likely to Worry about the consequences of a Nuclear attack Moreover if there is one thing that the War in Ukraine has shown us it’s that Putin doesn’t really care about the Lives of not only ukrainians but also The Russians who are being sent to the Front line He’s taken the stance that Ukraine will Run out of bullets before Russia runs Out of soldiers that is right out of the Soviet Playbook therefore one has to ask Whether there is any way in which we can Stem the unnecessary Bloodshed that Grinds on in Ukraine are there any peace Agreements that make sense what sort of Negotiated settlement could allow a Reasonable off-ramp for Putin that Allows him to save face but also ensures Ukrainian sovereignty and security now I

Am no expert on the Ukraine war and the Underlying dynamics that exist between The two countries but what I do know is That there are solutions being presented For a broader peace agreement yet these Are being largely shot down for example Elon Musk recently tweeted a poll Suggesting a potential compromise in the War The response was a great deal of a Program from many on Twitter president Zielinski accused him of supporting Russia while the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany told him to quote [ __ ] off This is some pretty harsh criticism for Someone who was advocating for peace Someone who lest we forget donated Starlink to Ukraine’s war effort at a Cost of 80 million dollars and Rising so While a nuclear war doesn’t appear to be Likely right now we should not be egging It on by allowing neocons to bang the War drums concessions of some sort will Be required if we want to pull away from The brink but how much either side must Concede is not an opinion I am qualified To hold all I will say is that I Certainly don’t want to see weapons of Mass destruction used in Ukraine Something that I’m sure we can all agree Upon And that’s it for my video today folks But I have to hear some of your

All-important feedback is Putin likely To push the nuclear button can a Peaceful outcome in Ukraine be Negotiated let me know your thoughts in The comments below also while you’re Down there I have something extra Special for you it is my dedicated Socials page which has all the official Links to the following my telegram Insider Channel with daily market Analysis Twitter for the latest from the Bureau Instagram and Tick Tock for Behind the scenes and finally My Weekly Newsletter now it’s here that I share my Crypto tips as well as a breakdown of my Personal portfolio so be sure to find That page if you want all that good Stuff oh and if you’re looking for some Of the best discounts deals and Promos In the crypto space then my deals page Is the place to get it so all of which You seek is below and if you guys liked This guy’s video go on share the love Hit that like tap that subscribe ping That Bell as well for good measure Because you don’t want to miss what else I have coming up hope to see you guys Real soon till then this is Guy bidding You