Nicholas Merten: Looking at the big picture

Welcome to coin telegraph's crypto Trading Secrets podcast we're going to Be in a recessionary bar Market I made That mistake back in the day when I was Trading with cannabis bitcoin's mining Reward in half only a couple people make Money day trading let's dive into that This episode is sponsored by web 3 Antivirus Hey folks thanks for tuning in to crypto Trading Secrets presented by coin Telegraph today we have Nicholas meron a Trader and well-known content creator in The crypto space Nicholas runs data Dash A sizable crypto focused YouTube channel The interview in this episode was Recorded on January 9 2023 all right Without further Ado here's Nicholas Martin hey Nicholas how's it going good Man it's nice to see you BJ how you Doing yeah I'm pretty good I'm pretty Good it's been a it's been a while since We've chatted um but it's it's always Good to chat with you yeah man and it's A good time to do it as well it seems Like the entire space has gone silent And when there's silence there's Building and a lot of exciting things to Talk about so the show usually aims to Have three segments the first one is Called finding the bottom basically i' Just like to ask guests what they think About bitcoin's price and where might be Amid the bare market and uh when they

Think the asset might find a bottom so What's your opinion on bitcoin's price Lately yeah I think that right now uh You know we've been going through what Can only be seen as kind of a period of Consolidation I like to view things from A macro view it's just the way that I've Traded mainly over the last 11 years and I think crypto is going through again This period of massive restructuring That I think it's going to be overall Good for the space long term but I think People quite underestimate just how long This could really play out um the damage That was done by you know companies like FTX and Celsius three Aros Capital the Whole Fiasco with Luna is really going To leave a irreversible scar on the Industry and I think we need to Understand not only how that contagion Continues to play out but that it's Playing out in this little micro space Within crypto and when we really step Out into the macro perspective big Picture view uh we really start to see You know with inflation Global Supply Chain issues that crypto is not going to Be the leading asset class for some time And I say that as someone who got into Crypto around 2016 2017 who really rode The wave of the last decade in stocks And crypto uh I think we need to Understand that the end of that secular Bull market where times were good

Quantitative easing was fresh there's Lots of money being injected in the Economy pring up asset valuations I Think those times are unfortunately over And uh we need to prepare for cold Winter where eventually we could start Look for some signs on bomic gotcha so Do you have any data or opinions on Bitcoin's price action over the last Year and how that might might line up With the timeline of how previous Bitcoin bar markets played out yeah I Mean I think one of the first Observations building into my my Previous point a little bit is that when We take a look at previous cycle Corrections you're easily looking at Around I think anywhere from an 80% plus Correction and the important thing to Understand is that when you go from say An 80% correction to an 85% correction To a 90% correction from top to bottom It's a huge difference and people really Start to to negate that and they think Oh you know I'm just dollar cost average I'm buy the tip these differences become Incrementally large when you're Measuring from top to bottom now so far If I remember correctly when I looked at It Bitcoin is corrected or at least the Broader crypto market cap has roughly Corrected about 75% and while that's definitely a good Chunk we've removed probably a lot of

The euphoric bubble valuation that was Persistent in 2021 uh We've cleared Through a lot of the you know overvalued Projects and scams and all the stuff That just unfortunately persisted over The last few years and persist during Bull markets but we've still got I think A Wass to go before valuations get Attractive for institutional investors Or that next wave of buyers I think one Really good example again to to consider Here is as you mentioned those Traditional time frames of what we would Originally Lael was a Bitcoin bare Market right usually it takes about a Year at least from the past two ones Which are the most mature bare markets As Bitcoin became more of a liquid uh Market for Traders and actually Developed a serious valuation that took Was noteworthy uh during these bare Markets it usually lasted about a year I Think this time around we need to be Prepared that we're not just going to be In a typical crypto bar Market we're Going to be in a recessionary bar market So this is one where crypto not going Through its bigest transformation since The collapse of malox or Magic the Gathering online exchange which was one Of the biggest Bitcoin exchanges back in 2014 did the overwhelming majority of Volume but on top of that we've got all These recessionary pressures I think

Right now it's almost just kind of Hanging in the air everyone is Anticipating to some degree that we're Going to have pretty substantial Recession um that again as the FED is Continuing to hike something will Eventually break something will lower Valuations and what is another 20% dip 30% dip in equity valuations in the US Stock Market what's that going to do to Bitcoin and crypto U some would say that We've we've kind of gone to the majority Of the correction and maybe crypto led The pack as the more RIS risk on asset And I would completely agree again as we Talked about earlier I think the Majority of that Corrections come Through but I think we're we're being a Bit close minded if we don't think we Can press down to say 12,500 which would be the typical bare Market correction for crypto and on top Of that be open to the idea that we Might even go down to that five figure Number of 10,000 that's at least what I'm watching uh again it's there's no Guarantee that we're going to hit those Levels and I wouldn't say you have to Wait around for that but for me Personally again I'm just remaining Patient here on where we go into the Next couple of years yeah that makes Sense so about every four years Bitcoin Goes through a having event which Cuts

Bitcoin's mining reward in half meaning Fewer new Bitcoin entering into Circulation the next having is expected To occur in 2024 what are your thoughts On how Havingsex price going forward yeah That's actually a really good point and I think I can offer a pretty unique Perspective on this because I think most People see the having event as it was Over the last decade from bitcoin's Origin as this really big Catalyst that Would kind of start to immediately once It took effect reduce the amount of Bitcoin mind per block and therefore Immediately Implement a supply shock That really could only be felt when it Was implemented and after that you Tended to see you know a year out from Those having events that Bitcoin would Really make new record highs or was Pressing back up to the previous bull Market highs going even further Afterwards I think that the having event Each and every time has less and less of An effect on bitcoin and I think that a Lot of people are going to be Disappointed in the coming four years Not so much much with bitcoin's price Action Bitcoin can maybe do well during That period of time but how much of a Lacking effect thereof the having event Has on bitcoin because as you're going Through these these block reward uh

Havingsex block having from five Bitcoin Per block to 2.5 BTC there's a very big Difference between those two having Events one of them is a reduction of Five Bitcoin per block and the other one Is a reduction of 2.5 now percentage Wise from each having event yes you're Cutting it in half right that's why it's Called the having but the key thing here To understand is that Bitcoin is a Finite asset 21 million coins so when You start going down the list of these Having events they become growingly weak In the grand scheme of things what I Care more about is not the immediate Potential minor sell pressure from People who are mining Bitcoin on each Block I'm starting to just worry about Whether or not the existing holders are Selling more than New Market Participants and buyers and that's just A simple question of supply and demand And considering the market flow and Either the direction um and I have a Feeling you know if we go into an Extended period a decade of inflation Like we did in the 70s If the Fed starts To Pivot too early or they haven't Properly reduced the balance sheet that They've doubled in size since the Pandemic in 2020 I I think we're going To have a painful period of either Sideways price action or lowering prices In Bitcoin and crypto so that's that's

What I'm a little bit worried about here I think again the having of it isn't Going to be able to be that Saving Grace As it used to be in crypto interesting Yeah that makes sense to me so do you Have any opinions on when or where you Think bitcoin's price might form a Bottom yeah you know I'm I'm looking Really as as early as quarter 1 to Quarter to this year potentially I I do Lean in a a camp of investors that Really kind of sees this playing out a Little bit longer than people may you Know intend for I I kind of go through Like I have a ton of different investors And Traders I I listen to and also People I'm just aware of and I I try to Kind of figure out where that timeline Is for them and it's somewhere probably In 2023 but that is also as with most Bare markets likely going to come with a Long longterm accumulation channel so Really I think you're going to have you Know later on in in Q2 Q3 I would say More realistically you're going to have The formulation of that low um I think All of the skeletons in the closet so to Speak within the crypto industry you Know companies that were affected by the Fallout of Luna there be it Celsius FTX And maybe even other exchanges we just Don't know about um I think all those Companies are going to have to come out If they haven't already

The damage will have been done on those And you're going to have all the Scrappers and people who again are just Going to consolidate with any kind of Correction in equity markets and I think Again that when you really get to one of Those big psychological numbers like 10,000 that's going to get investors Really interested um you know I think in In broader terms you could see crypto Market cap you know we're coming from Around a high of $69,000 that's a very solid percentage Decline from Top to bottom and it's the Kind of stuff that happens during these Blowoff tops it would be very much in Line with traditional bare markets uh Both uh not only in the percentage Decline but a little bit longer than the Typical Crypt bear market and I think Again as we talked about earlier we got To accept that it's going to take a Little bit longer I I'm usually someone I I don't hope for anyone who's Listening I hope they don't take me as To being some kind of pessimist or are Being overly negative or bearish I've Like I said invested in the broader Crypto market for the last decade but I Think it's just being realistic about How this time is a little bit different Than previous bare markets you know we Didn't have the kind of inflationary Purchase we had and also we don't have

That having as you you referencing I Think that's a really honestly good Point to bring up EJ like people don't Think about how to having is not going To have that same effect so you don't Have QE you don't have the having events Supporting Bitcoin as much as these two And you got a lot of macro concerns Liquidations and overvalued assets Across the board the housing market you Know went through major bubbles so all These things come into play when it Comes to the monetary flows of supply And demand for crypto assets that in the End determent price gotcha and you kind Of hit on this at at points but I just Wanted to see I was just wondering what Do you think the biggest thing impacting Bitcoin's pric is I think to be honest The the macro sentiment and I I would Say more specifically uh the federal Funds rate and the central bank balance Sheet and this is why again I remain Relatively pessimistic for the next Couple of months because if you if you Really kind of go back and see when the FED expanded its balance sheet um over Over the last decade really over the Last almost two decades and Stu but Really since 2008 about 15 years I mean We really went through a massive Expansion of monetary posy now while I Don't want to make the argument that We're going to reduce the entire balance

Sheet if you really take look at that Expansion from the base money supply Being at 4 trillion to 8 trillion right In about two two and a half years we Doubled the money supply um and I know a Lot of people scuff and got really used To the idea of the F just printing money And thinking oh that you know it's Totally fine nothing's going to go wrong But we're starting to see the Ramifications of that now through Inflation and so long as that inflation Persists to a degree until the FED Really gets down to that 2% Target of Inflation I really think people need to Understand that that that is going to Persist for a long period of time and It's going to take time to get there and Until we get there the fed's going to Keep uh reversing quantitative EAS and Engaging rather in quantitative Tightening which is where they're Dumping mortgage back Securities US Treasuries Government debt and Essentially they're dumping this on the Open market back in November they had The biggest decline of about I think was Around $130 billion in a single month That's very different than kind of qt or Quantitative tightening we've seen Before and I think that that's just Going to compound and accelerate I I've Projected on the channel the YouTube Channel that I run talking to people

About how uh we expect that that is Going to go down from the original I Think historic highs around I think it Was around N9 trillion um 8 n trillion Down to around like six to seven Trillion dollars at at a minimum Removing this secondary wave of Liquidity injection that the fed put in During 2021 um but that's that's one big Thing as well but you know I actually Wanted to to hint on one thing uh BJ Which is like you know towards this Question of what's really holding back Crypto I mean I'm a really big macro Trader so I can go on about the FED all Day long I can talk about all that stuff But I gotta say man I'm curious to maybe Even again get your take on This I Gotta Tell you I really feel like while we We're so confident right now that Bitcoin and ethereum are kind of always Just going to be these Market leaders And sure there was a lot of alternative Layer ones that kind of went out the Window in the cycle we weren't really Big on promoting many of them or talking About them I never really was big on Avalanche never talked about Luna um but I have to say I think that there's a Really ripe opportunity and chance to Disrupt the way developers interact with Crypto users interact with crypto pretty Much the entire Financial system as a Whole interact with crypto because I

Think in its current state crypto will Never be adopted by traditional Finance I I say this is someone who built in Defi over the last couple years and Fortunately had to shut down one of my Own startups of three years back in uh 2022 um and I just I realize that the Way defi is right now which is I think One of the best use cases in crypto and Does have potential the way that you Have to build apps now um the limits That you have to face and also the user Experience hurdles of using WL lets like Metamask um you know signing Transactions and you know not having Really any kind of digital ID or way to Really make these applications palpable For people like web2 applications I Think these are huge limitations and Setbacks that are going to be overcome By new players that come into the space Yeah that's pretty interesting stuff you Had a lot to to go over there um so yeah But I I appreciate hearing your your Feedback that's that's really good stuff Taking a brief pause here to talk about This episode sponsor web 3 antivirus Fishing scams have been a problem in the Web 3 world with users suffering the Loss of assets after signing malicious Requests with their crypto wallets but Upand cominging Solutions like web 3 Antivirus aim to help by assisting users In analyzing incoming transaction

Requests before agreeing to them and now Back to the show next section we want to Move into is called trade secrets so Basically tell me about your background Or as much as you're comfortable talking About yeah for sure I um I basically Originally with with coin Telegraph I I Was fortunate enough to be able to do This video series where they they kind Of animated my background and uh the the Simple kind of story as short as I can Keep it I started trading back in around Like 2011 time uh I was basically it was My birthday I had been studying the Markets for months learning about Trading and investing at first time I Went to go trade was actually opening up A joint brokerage account with my my dad He was kind enough to go take me right After I got out of school basically Going out getting my account set up and As early as I could I started investing And trading in US Stocks I bought you Know emerging Industries like solar Technology I bought into other plays as Well like cannabis I was really eager to Kind of catch these emerging Trends Before they became mainstream and focus On kind of midterm uh trading uh when it Came to my entries and exits so a couple Months reach trade and I learned a lot Of lessons along the way but I think for Me what was interesting after a couple Years of making mistakes in equities

Trading and then eventually making Returns and and coming out net positive I realized I really liked it I could Make money doing it but on top of that I Really liked finding transformative Technologies and for my trading Journey When I came into crypto crypto really Just changed everything it taught me so Much more about technical analysis the Emotion of the market understanding the Dynamics of markets underneath what we See when we're just buying some asset With a four-letter symbol or some kind Of cryptocurrency or stock really Understanding the Dynamics of markets uh And this really again helped me kind of Ground myself into becoming that macr Trader that I started out as so I like To focus on really basically what I find After nearly 10 years is in my opinion The best way to trade or invest for me Personally I find that it comes when I Have uh trades that are well thought out Well researched have good price setups And essentially can take multiple months To play out I've learned that through Day trading through experience and Losing money day trading is just a Losing game uh you know 95% roughly Speaking there's a couple different Studies but generally speaking 95% of People who day trade will lose money in The end what makes matters even worse is You got to compare whether or not you

Would have done better swing trading or Longterm investing and when you start to Look at that I think it starts to get up Into the 98% threshold really only a Couple people make money day trading Historically speaking so I really like To trade the broader Cycles in crypto I Like to sell dur overbought periods buy During those capitula periods where There's liquidations people are Force Selling you're able to really get good Position sizes add really good discounts And that's the kind of way that I think Will not only uh you know basically help You to avoid making a lot of the Mistakes and crypto but on top of that As well for me it just helps me keep Grounded and allows me to focus on my Passion which is finding where those Broader Trends are about to play out Gotcha that's that's some interesting Stuff so how would you describe your Trading strategy let's dive into that Yeah for sure um there's a couple Different things I look for so like First off for any kind of asset I I have To definitely focus a bit on Fundamentals and fundamentals aren't Exactly uh what people would genuinely Usually think they usually think when I Say fundamentals um you know is there Revenue behind it basically all the kind Of traditional things you would label in The financial category as fundamentals

Uh you know revenue or growth Projections more than anything for me I I want to know if there's a potential For this Market to be able to expand From its current point or any kind of Given asset the next thing I have as Well is trying to look at any data Metrics whether it be price whether it Be the cumulative volume Delta or Market Order flow or understanding you know the Backers or investors behind products and Understand is there going to be more Outflows or more inflows if there's more Outflows I'm going to sit on the Sidelines if there looks to be more Inflows this gets really interesting That means that there's the ability for Price to move up because there's more Demand than Supply um so that for me is Is is kind of Point number one but the Other point as well outside of talking About the fundamentals for Price Expansion are definitely looking at Technical analysis so for me I like to Really look on the weekly monthly time Frames you'll never find me looking at Like the five minute time frame or the 30 minute or hourly chart I really like Zooming out and looking at multiple Years or multiple months and from there You can really start to see you know Some longer term accumulation patterns It's much easier to spot when uh Institutions through either woff

Patterns or other similar types of Accumulation or distribution patterns Are exiting or entering positions so the Longer you zoom out the better and if I See those long-term setups of sideways Accumulation at a nice discount price With a slight signs of uptrend higher Lows and higher highs that's why I start To get really optimistic um and then I Think third finally as well like for me I care a lot about momentum I can't be The only one in the room I know a lot of People want to feel like uh they're the Only one making a position and like you Know I'm going to buy this position Three or five years it's going to be a Big thing I made that mistake back in The day when I was trading with cannabis You know I was buying a cannabis penny Stock back in the day when I was like a Teenager I was like a couple years ahead Of the curb and I ended up buying a low Quality stock and I got the sector right I got the trend right but I was way too Early and I got positioned in the wrong Play and what I found out from that is That if I would have just waited on when The industry really started to Trend a Little bit pay a little bit of a premium On it and you know see the names that Are already performing well I would have Done much better so that's the ca same Thing with crypto same with any asset Class there's no need to rush into

Things or try to pick bottoms so I know On our Channel we've got a lot of people Who are you know they'll see the markets Bouncing up here during the bare market For a couple days and oh my gosh I got To go long but in reality you know like That Things fall over yet again and We've been sitting on the sidelines We're patient we're waiting for that Proper entry we wait for the right price Signals to St so this is some of the key Things that I follow that play in my Broader strategy my real broader Strategy is definitely would take more Time to talk about but generally Speaking those are kind of the key Things I focus on yeah that's that's Again that's really interesting stuff um So you mentioned technical analysis Maybe just walk me through what you look For in your technical analysis for sure Yeah so as we talked about earlier I I Definitely like to look on those Expansive time frames um so as I I Mentioned before I think the Accumulation patterns are very Interesting uh consecutive support on Key indicators like moving averages Preferably the 200 um 200 period moving Average on the weekly time frame or Daily time frame I I generally want to See support being made on these Indicators I want to see price itself Forming reverse like triple bottoms uh

Double bottoms anything that could Signal that you know anyone who wanted To get flushed down is out of the market And um I also do like to look for Capitulation as well like so Free Falling candles for more short-term Trades or potentially if I really feel That on a higher magnitude like we get a 40 50% correction in equities or an 85 90% correction in crypto those are the Kind of things that I like to look for I Like to look for large percentage Declines from top to bottom um and Outside of that as well there's uh There's a really important Dynamic to Understand too that I I don't think a Lot of Traders focus on which is looking For uh how prices in uh interacting with Key indicators like consistent Historical indicators like the 200 day Moving average and the 200 we moving Average during a bare market and during Bull markets so I on my channel I've Emphasized a lot looking at say Traditional equities um or even crypto And how the 200 week moving average used To be this kind of buy the dip Opportunity for the last decade every Single time we got draw Downs if you Bought at the 200 we moving average in a Couple months you'd be making money on Your positions that's just like it's a Fact and stuff with that like with the Historical data we have that was usually

What would play out however though this Time around we've been trading well Below the 200 we moving average and this Is again to that point about oh I see This time we're at a bare Market we're Facing resistance at the 200 we moving Average or maybe not even coming to Retest it so during these periods I like To look for much larger flushes Capitulation and that's when I really go Long and again have that time frame in Mind of 6 to 12 months where this could Be uh you know eventually a long-term Position one year plus trade and you can Start to make some really substantial Returns versus uh just trying to trade Every single move in the space without All the stress that comes with day Trading gotcha yeah thanks for sharing So how did you learn your style of Trading I know you touched on that a Little bit but maybe dive into that a Little bit more yeah to be honest for me I I learned it uh mainly through being Self-taught you know I know there's a Lot of there's a lot of different Traders that I admire out there I've got A really close friend of mine named Bob Who who's been a phenomenal Trad he's Traded back at Doom bubble I also Followed individuals like Chris catcher Who worked with uh Mark minen like or Actually he worked with u Kevin O'Neal And also Mark moven is another really

Great Trader all these guys have have Differences in their style of trading But for me what I really appreciate is Their ability to really not Chase Trad And be able to focus on the macro Perspective I think the thing that Defines a great Trader is someone who Realizes that all they have to do to Outpace the broader Market is make a Couple trades every year that are Focused on big Bets with great reward to Risk ratios so if I can get for example If I just take four trades in year if I Really take my time to find four quality Plays in the year and I can get two out Of four maybe three out of four of those Right I can make astronomical Returns Versus someone who's trying to day trade And use leverage and make a 5% return in One day and then it's going to lose 10% Uh when you really have these great risk To reward plays you know what your Adjusted risk is you know you can lose For example with a stop of 10% you know You can lose 10% uh but on top of that As well if you have take profits that Are three five times bigger than that You can really make some astronomical Returns if you hit those levels um that Again really only can happen in such a Short period of time in crypto but again My profit targets would just be shorter And Equity place still you can make Really great returns that outpace the

Broader Market but it has to do again With finding those kind of catalyst Positions there's also uh Stanley Drunken Miller uh he he you know he's Talked for example about some of his Fame trades where he went long uh I Think either treasuries or treasury Yields back uh back during the 70s or Different period of time and again it's Just these kind of like insightful Trades when you can really zoom out you Don't care about chasing every great Opportunity that's thrown at you and Just focus again on kind of seeing like Hey okay look like you know there's a Lot of talk about energy transformation Energy is getting more expensive solar And uranium look quite interesting to me Uh I'm going to go ahead dive in check What the charts are saying the charts Are showing me signs of an uptrend or Signs of accumulation I might get long Um if I see that the you know kind of The people are continuously paying a Higher PE multiple that gets me excited People are getting excited about these Industries and it's reflecting in price And the valuations so um I like to ride Into that String and uh again just overall focus On making very few key trades if you can Ride with the market if you can listen To what price is telling you uh and just Continuously like by spending tons and

Tons of time I think the the analogy Everyone uses is you got spend 10,000 Hours doing something to be an expert I Think that of course it's a Generalization but once you've seen say 10,000 20,000 charts you start to be Able to look at price and be like um Yeah this is going to start moving up or This is going to start moving down Especially when you're looking at the Longer term time frames and that's why Got I keep coming back to that the more You can discipline yourself to to keep To the Daily weekly and monthly time Frames the more profitable you're going To be uh in my opinion interesting yeah Thanks for thanks for your your take on That and your your input last question In this segment I just wanted to know About psychology and your trading yeah Man it's it's a it's a big topic um I Would say for for me when it comes to Psychology my train I my trading style I Rarely will use psychology if I'm doing More structured short-term trades those Usually have very like well- defined Risk reward profiles so that's again as We talked about a little bit earlier Using stop losses having takeprofit Levels not getting you know sidelined About thinking it's hit my take-profit Level maybe it could go higher like no When I do those shorter term trades I Really try to stick disciplined to using

Stop losses and uh using take profits or If you're trading options or something More volatile kind of accepting that the Position you build like it's kind of Like oh look I know this could maybe do A three or 4X but it also could go to Nothing um yeah you know knowing that You know whatever I put up I could lose That so I always have those pretty Pretty well defined from the beginning When it comes to those longer term swing Trades that make up the majority of my Liquidity uh and also my my attention And focus I would say for those I really Like to buy things when no one's Listening so I mean I think you know It's pretty cool like BJ we're here Right now we're chatting know Bitcoin Sitting around I think like 17,300 bucks and you know could possibly Go lower um you know the more and more Quiet we are and the more price is Declining and the less Euphoria there is In an asset class but I can figure out If it has the potential and stuff to be Able to move higher through its Fundamentals if there's exciting things Being built in that space there is a Quiet silent minority that's continuing To build add value um then I'm really Keen to watch it especially if price is Saying me the signs that it's bottomed But on the other end of the stick when It comes to taking profits I mean I

Think if it's interesting like if we Really look back at 2021 I think the one Thing I really messed up on as a Trader Is I ignored one of these key principes Got a little bit sidelined by all the Euphoria like a lot of people did I Think but in 2017 you know when we had Our YouTube channel back then we've been Covering crypto as far back as 2017 During that period of time in November December uh we started to sell Bitcoin At around 10,000 when we really had that Parabolic blow off top we were hitting Big eeden levels where people think it's A new paradigm ship you started to have The Bitcoin Futures Trading you had Everyone and Grandma talking about Crypto so for me I really like to to see Mania and Euphoria as kind of my alarm Signal to start slowly lowering my Exposure locking in profits and uh Getting ready for the tax season to pay On those gains and stuff like versus you Know during this period of time not I Wouldn't say if people had positions now Like at least for myself I have some Crypto positions I'm still holding I'm Going to hold those for the next couple Years CU I think that risk adjusted Return is best just to hold it um but on Top of that for me like I have my Liquidity mainly on the sidelines now And once I really once the room gets Quiet enough once I start seeing price

Just base out and people are Uninterested in it that's when I want to Strike so I definitely use that market Psychology I think uh to my advantage I'm figuring out when I want to buy and Sell I think any any good Trader will do That to some degree whether they're Looking on the shorter term or longer Term time frames awesome yeah that was That was great thank you so let's dive Into the last segment here which is the Next Bull Run BAS basically what are you Looking for that would signal to you That Bitcoin may have bottomed I think For for me and and that's again that's Actually a really good question because So many people folks they usually will Ask like what's the absolute number you Think it's going to bottom out and I Think no one's got the crystal ball to Find that answer but um for me I'm Looking at a bare minimum for some major Kind of vertical move or on the other End of the stick a what we typically Find which is the long-term accumulation Pattern I think there will be some of those Vertical bump UPS uh that again could be Bare Market rallies where we rally up For a bit we still set in a lower Significant High We face resistance at The 200 day moving average and then we Roll back over what I care most about is When price has had a capitula of selloff

And then for proceeding few months to a Year we push sideways and there's a big Reason for this because it's not just a Question of uh the price action for Bitcoin right during those accumulation Patterns the reason they're called Accumulation patterns or consolidation Patterns is there's a changing of hands Where new parties or new investors come In at a certain price range and they're Really starting to build those sizable Positions slowly but steadily they don't Want to buy too quick because then price Moves up if they engage in too much Market bu but I think that's that's one Dynamic we need to consider but I think The other one we need to consider as Well is when we we really have a vision For where Bitcoin is going to be as an Asset there is a ton of things working Against Bitcoin I mean if FTX and cells Is some the stuff wasn't bad enough the Wave of regulations that are going to Come over the next couple of years uh The amount of miners the bigcoin hash Rate is is right up near its all-time High not too far off and that can't Persist in this environment Mathematically speaking for very long Because a lot of these miners are not Producing free electricity they have Electrical cost and therefore they're Going to be facing bankruptcy Restructuring that's going to lead to

Sell side pressure for Bitcoin and then Al as well there's a lot of junk out There in the altcoin space like there Was during the dot bubble it's not an Insult to crypto similar to how IPOs you Know collapsing right and some of them Being outright scams at the end of the Day I didn't mean that the internet had No value it's just that we've got to go Through this restructuring period we Have to figure out the ultimate question Which is how is crypto really going to Look in the next couple years uh one Thing and this is again just for Disclosure purposes they are one of our Partners on the channel but we really Only work with partner project s that we Like and one of them that I think is Really exciting is radx radic DLT I've Known the project since 2018 so they've Been around the block for some time in Crypto one of the things I like about Them though is that they've really sat Down and they chatted with the people Who really make crypto what it is Developers and they asked them for the Past two years what is it that you're Missing when you develop a decentralized Application what are you missing when it Comes to the developer experience around Crypto and it's it's amazing how much They've been able to take that feedback And from a protocol level completely Rethink the way developers interact with

Crypto users the whole shebang and I Think that that is what's going to allow Us to hopefully whether it's radic or Another player I'm not here to just Promote them I think there's a ton of Interesting layer one protocols that Have been building behind the scenes That are are less Market Savvy and are Much more focused marketing Savvy and Much more focused on development that Are going to really come in and Challenge ethereum because if you can Take Unis swap an application that was One of the few really exciting Applications in crypto that originally Took 15,000 uh 10 to 15,000 lines of Code to develop and treat that down to Maybe a couple hundred lines of code Without the smart contract exploits and You also know as a user when you're Engaging with it what tokens you're Swapping rather than signing some random Met metam Mass transaction that's the Kind of stuff that's going to fix crypto And until we fix that we sure as hell Aren't going to be bringing our mom and Dad into using crypto and we certainly Aren't going to be bringing the Financial uh world of Wall Street uh and Traditional uh Enterprise Finance into Crypto and that's what's really going to Be able to make crypto a multi-trillion Dollar asset class or you know something That slowly goes into the night and

Remains as it is today gotcha yeah that Makes sense too so if because nothing is A sure thing we have another crypto Bull Run what are you looking for that would Tell you that maybe the market has Changed into a bull run G yeah that's a Fair point I guess I should be a bit More specific I would say when when you Get uh like what what I saw in the last Bull market and this was true I think For a lot of other bull markets after That accumulation pattern if you get a Solid double digit Green Day on Bitcoin's price that's when I get Excited I know a lot of people are like Oh man the price went up 20% or 15% for Me I'm buying there I'd much rather pay The premium because I know with those Kind of major breakout days uh why they Happen and why they're so significant is Because they happen when someone is Afraid that they're not going to get Their order filled like an Institutional Investor so and remember as we were Talking about that accumulation pattern Just to visualize it after you've had Really the bare Market draw down you Push sideways this happened in 2015 it Happened in uh 2019 as well when you are pushing Sideways and then immediately get this You know 10 20% pump or move in Bitcoin's price the reason that that's Happening is because they no longer feel

They can get their bids filled usually They're doing that bid uh orders on the Order book waiting for people to sell Into their requested orders um but when They Market order by that's what causes This dramatic slippage and that was Really the Catalyst I remember on April 1st or April 2nd of 2019 it was the Catalyst for the next bull market and Bitcoin rallied all the way to 14K and Went back to 3700 and then it went all All the way up to 69,000 at the peak of The bull market so look for that kind of Catalyst breakout and when everyone is Thinking oh my gosh it's you know it's Overbought now or too pricey I don't Want to buy it that's the time I Genuinely would be getting optimistic Just me personally gotcha so how will You look to try and figure out the Timeline of the next Bull Run I think Looking at prior Cycles have definitely Brought some value uh the last cycle was Was quite different uh from the others And the the fact that it was quite short Um now that we know where the high was I Think that it's not so much a factor of Figuring out the timeline for the next Bull market it's because we don't know When that bare Market bottom will be I Think uh a lot of people are really I Think curious at the end of the day About when do we really know uh things Are starting to get overvalued and I

Think the more vertical you start moving On uh the logarithmic chart uh versus The prior weeks and months and the more You hear about crypto and the headlines And the more you're feeling like an Optimism to buy as a Trader and investor I've learned to lean into the intuition To to go on the other side of the trade But I think you know to be honest like Most crypto bull markets I'm not a big Believer in the The fouryear Cycle Theory I have been a believer in this Idea of expanding Cycles to some degree Even though that didn't play out in the Last cycle and the reason why is because As Bitcoin becomes uh a more well-known Asset if we do have another bull market And really go to new all-time highs I Think it's going to be much more Difficult to get there um because the Fact that we don't have the feds Quantitative easing I don't think we Will for a long period of time and on Top of that uh even if you did have it The to go from say 5K to 10K in Bitcoin's price versus 50k to 100K it's A totally different uh totally different Ball game both of them are 2x's in Valuation or 100% moves but even Considering that we need to talk about The liquidity demand to get us from Those kind of exacerbated valuations you Know going from the market cap of $50,000 Bitcoin to 100,000 is a very

Difficult task it takes a lot more Liquidity than say the move from 5 to 10K so I think we really need to think About who who are those buyers going to Be and that's why I I would think that The next bull market is going to be Quite long uh but I think a lot of the Historic metrics we have to determine How long bull markets will be Unfortunately just aren't going to be Valuable uh in this next cycle so I much More rather try to listen to what price Is telling me on when I should enter and When I should exit when is no one Talking about it when is everyone at Max Capitulation and have we seen price push Sideways do we get that popup I'm Interested I'm in and then uh you know a Year two years out could be three years Um when crypto is just getting to Absorbent levels price is starting to Stall um set in lower highs and lower Lows that's when I get out and you can Still you don't have to time up the Bottom or top EX exactly but you can Make some phenomenal returns and in many Cases um you know still have it as being A long-term trade which is beneficial For tax reasons at least in the US Gotcha so that about wraps it up um Thank you so much Nicholas for for Coming on I really appreciate it BJ Thank you so much man it was really nice Getting to catch up and uh yeah man I we

We'll survive through this winter it'll Be interesting to see how things go and Thanks for having me on man all right Thanks so much this podcast episode was Brought to you thanks to coin Telegraph's partner web 3 antivirus Thanks for tuning in to crypto trading Secrets presented by coin Telegraph We'll catch you next Time

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