NASDAQ Seasonality

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the equity verse today we're going To talk about the NASDAQ and we're going To be looking at seasonality in Pre-election years if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out the sale on into the Crypto versus premium at into the I understand it's called Into the cryptographers we actually do Have a lot of different charts for Equities and macro economics as well as You will see in this video now we have Been talking a lot about seasonality in The s p and in crypto and I thought for Just sort of a change of scenery why not Carry out this analysis from the Perspective of the NASDAQ going into This I should say that as always there Is no guarantee in financial markets we Cannot look at the context of history And tell us what has to happen no one Knows what will happen you know no one Knows you know the markets could go one Way and make you think it's going to Happen and then before you know it it's Completely reverse course and going back The other way But what I want to do is at least go Through the prior pre-election years to See if there's any seasonality that we Can that we can take away from it and if You followed my videos for the last

Several weeks we've been talking about This leading up to it so hopefully this Is not coming as any surprise to anyone Um but in general this is what the Year-to-date Roi of the NASDAQ looks Like in 2023 and this is what it looked Like in 2019. the first thing to note is That around this time we had a seasonal Correction in the August September time Frame of that pre-election year we saw The NASDAQ get a correction it it sort Of hung around those lows for a while It Ultimately headed higher in Q4 of the Pre-election year now remember one of The things I've said the entire year is That the stock market can climb the wall Of worry until the labor market finally Loosens up the labor market hasn't Really loosened up yet and so we've seen The stock market continue to climb the Wall of worry while markets can climb The wall of worry that doesn't mean they Do so in a monotonic fashion it's also An often a stochastic process just like Um all markets are are relatively Stochastic if you look at this chart Though you'll see there is a correction Around this time frame now there's also A correction back over here and and the NASDAQ didn't get it this year so rather Than cherry pick a single year let's go Through and look at Several of them Right so this is what 2015 looks like You can see there is a fairly

Substantial correction uh coming in on About day 229 for reference we're Currently on day 214 so it's only 15 Days from now Another seasonal correction around the August to September time frame if you Look at 2011 another correction right Around this time frame 2007 same idea right another correction Around this time frame 2003 Pretty similar idea 1999 Same thing right so you can see that Going back to 1999 there's been a Seasonal correction In Q3 of the pre-election year right There are some exam uh there are some Exceptions to the rule and I want to go Through those now so one of those Exceptions and I'm going to clean up the Chart here we're going to go back to 2023. one of those exceptions is 1995. You can see that in 1995 There wasn't a substantial correction in The NASDAQ In Q3 but we basically ended the year Where we were at this point so if there If there is not a correction and or at Least not a substantial I mean I know You're probably looking at the trust Example saying well the nasdaq's down But I'm talking about like a five to ten Percent correction if there's not a Correction uh it doesn't mean that it's

Just going to go straight up for the Rest of the year it could just Consolidate until the end of the year as Well You can go look at 1991 Which is another example where you you Didn't really see that substantial of a Correction but it essentially just sort Of leveled out here it did started to go Back up into Q4 the very end of the year But it was around this time frame where Consolidation started to really take Hold so 1995 and 1991 are generally Exceptions to the rule uh based on what We've historically seen now if you look At 1987 it is a some it's somewhat of an Exception to the rule not because it Didn't go down we actually saw a huge Drop in the NASDAQ in in 1987. the main Difference though is that in 1987 the Drop didn't occur until October okay so It was it was actually still a bit out From where we currently are before that Correction actually ensued so you could Argue that the three pre-election years That look the most dissimilar Um to the last you know five or six you Know however many we went through were In a row no 1987 1991 and in 1995 and in All three of those cases the NASDAQ did Not get that seasonal correction around This time frame but if you look at the Others you can see that there was and And it's a better illustrate that let's

Take an average of 2019 2015 2011 2007 2003 and 1999. the last six pre-election Years for the NASDAQ average it out this Is what the chart looks like so normally You can see the NASDAQ in pre-election Years going back for the last six Pre-election years has found a bit of a Correction around this time frame for Reference historically the correction on Average was over by day 222. we're Currently on day 214. now remember If a recession materializes let's say at The end of the year or early next year Then you know you can of course forget About seasonality right and there's There's examples in history where a Recession could occur and it doesn't Really matter what's going on from a Historical perspective Um take an example from say like 2001 Where the s p was just going down where If you were to compare that to say 2005 2005 of course looks a lot different if You were to compare that to say Um you know let's let's think to another Good one so there's 2021 because the s p Was going up 2017 the s p was going up 2013 the s p was going up but 2001 the s P was going down right so if you get a Recession of of course you can throw Seasonality out the window uh and so That's of course something that I think Is worthwhile to consider in that in a Lot of these pre-election years you get

A correction followed by a surge going Into the end of the year that surge that Could potentially happen in Q4 will be Dependent on on if risk materializes or Not if a labor market remains resilient Through Q4 then of course you could see The NASDAQ continue to climb up Later on in the year but if the Recession does materialize by then then You would not expect something like that Right you might expect it to play out More like 2015 at the very least where Rather than rather than get an Exceptional rally to end of the year it Might just sort of level out uh For a bit right so something to consider And and I just wanted to sort of put That on everyone's radar in case it Hasn't been on your radar so far we Could also look at this with the S P 500 And I just want you to know that you're Going to basically see the exact same Thing so if you were to average out The last six pre having or sorry Prehabbing this is a crypto Channel I Hope you uh hope you're aware uh but Pre-election prehabbing maybe we should Just start calling it prehabbing and Make the people that think about as a Pre-election think differently but if You look at it like this look at the Last Six pre-election years for the S P 500 You'll see a very similar

Seasonal correction by the S P 500 and So that's what I think we are sort of Faced with right now is is this just That seasonal correction that we tend to Get and and if it is then it could mean It could mean some suppressed prices in The s p for you know for a couple months To come note that there is some Confluence in this and that's the fact That I mean I mean right now we are Seeing the s p get a considerable drop Here and this is a somewhat substantial Drop especially you know considering That there hasn't really been a Substantial drop in quite some time But Um there is some Confluence here in in Things like the 10-year yield that um Has broken out has back tested and is Continuing higher and and when you see Things like the 10-year yield the 30-year when you see that sort of stuff Breaking out to the upside historically At least in 2022 it did not correspond With risk on it corresponded with risk Off so if you were to take the NASDAQ And overlay it uh onto onto this chart You'll see that you know oftentimes if If the 10-year yield is breaking down Breaking out it's not really a great Thing for the NASDAQ uh you can see here It was going down by the why the tenure Was going up you can see that when the Tenure was going here up here the NASDAQ

Was going down and if the 10-year does Start to break out again then of course It could lead to a risk-off environment For for the equity markets I mean at This point it does it does still look Like the 10-year yield is in fact trying To break out know that every time Historically it keeps getting about four Percent something seems to go wrong and Then we we sort of kick it back down You know like like back over here in March when it got above four percent we Saw the regional banking crisis and and Then it came back down but because of of The Federal Reserve Um come into the rescue the regional Banks we have we have seen the FED go Higher for longer just as they said they Would and markets are finally starting To sort of Believe The Fad that they're Resolved flight inflation is is actually Quite strong and they're not going to Sort of bow down just because Um you know just because the bond market Thinks they're going to Pivot I mean so Far they have they have just sort of Sucked their guns so I think that in the Context of of The treasury yields right like the 10-year yields if you look at 30 year You can see that I mean it's also above Four percent as well when you look out In the context of this normally when These things are breaking out it is a

It's a risk off environment okay so There is some some Confluence there and So I I think we need to be at least Aware of this seasonal correction in the S P 500 and the NASDAQ around this time Frame We of course know how it would relate to Crypto historically Um you know for for Bitcoin we normally See a a correction around this time in In the prehabbing year uh you like how I Snuck in Bitcoin I I like to think There's someone out there that has no Idea about Bitcoin they just clicked on The channel because they wanted to hear About the NASDAQ and they're like now This schmuck's talking about Bitcoin Um but just if you're aware historically We have seen a a move by Bitcoin below Its 20-week moving average in that Q3 uh Time frame of the pre having year and so I would argue that there is still a a Chance that it happens this time as well Remember a risk-off environment would Would you know could easily be Detrimental more so for the altcoin Market just because of how little Liquidity there is in fact it was in Q3 Of 2019 the pre-having year where a lot Of all coins that at least were going to Survive bottomed out against Bitcoin so There's a lot of Confluence I think in The markets Um

And we've seen these similar patterns Play out before I just wanted to remind You that there are exceptions to the Rule uh you know even with the S P 500 If you were to go look at at um at 1995 Or sorry this is micro I was looking at Microsoft earlier Um why don't we just look at Microsoft Now that we have it up right serious 2023 and then here's 2019. there's a Good example of where it sort of just Leveled off for a while it's like a it's Like a 2015. Pretty big correction in Microsoft 2011. Another substantial correction 2007. You can see I went down 2003 Seasonal seasonal move to the downside So I mean again like it's somewhat it's Somewhat Market wide Um And while we're here why not average it Out just to see if it if it tells the Same story so average out 2019 2015 2011 2007. see I need to just create a button That allows me to just click all the pre Pre-election you still have to go Through each time Um You look at this Add that added and you can see even here There's there's a correction and look at This like when you look at at Seasonality here it shows that Microsoft Tends to find a local top around day

200. here it topped out on day 199. it Then says it bottoms out typically on Day 234. Which would essentially be early September so I I think it's interesting To sort of find this Confluence in the Markets to see the NASDAQ and the s p Find a seasonal crash in August September uh the pre-election year Bitcoin tends to get A correction that takes it below its Bull market support band in Q3 of the Prehabbing year that tends to lead to The final capitulation of all Bitcoin Pairs at least the altica that are going To survive the alts that are not going To survival just fade in the depths of The cryptoverse anyways and and then we We start finally making progress in Where we are uh within the market cycle But anyways if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and again Check out the sale on into the crypto Versus premium at into the see you guys next time Bye


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