Mt. Gox Bitcoin CRASH COMING?? This You NEED To Know!!

It's crashing the crypto markets already And the selling it hasn't even begun I Mean it's no longer just fud as the Mount gox trustee has begun the process Of paying back the creditors the main Question now becomes will they sell and If so what will it do to bitcoin's price Well that's exactly what we'll be Answering today so don't go Anywhere before unlocking the GX Pandora's Box there is a disclaimer I Need to drop nothing in this video is Financial or investment advice it's Purely educational content meant to Inform you so please consult your Financial dude before making moves in The crypto market so with that out of The way let's jump in with a bit of an Overview now it's safe to assume that Most of you probably know what Mount gox Is but in case you don't here's a quick Tldr 10 years ago it was the world's Largest cryptocurrency exchange until it Collapsed in a hack between 650 to 800,000 Bitcoin was stolen over several Months and it led to the exchange being Insolvent and declaring bankruptcy as a Result there were tens of thousands of Users that were now unsecured creditors The bankruptcy process has been going at A painfully slow pace over the years but It is finally come to a cresendo grand Finale the final showdown is if you will And that's because earlier this year the

Trustee in the case has stated that they Are ready to start dispersements of the Over 140,000 Bitcoin that was recovered Needless to say that's a lot of Bitcoin A 7.9 billion dollar worth to be exact And if all that Bitcoin is sold all at Once it could completely melt through Most of the order books potentially Sending Bitcoin on one allmighty dump But whether that will happen depends on A few factors and those factors are Driven by a few questions that need to Be answered firstly when exactly will All of these coins land in the wallets Of the creditors uh secondly who exactly Are these creditors thirdly will they of Course sell and last but not least how Much could this impact on the markets if They do let's dive into it shall we so When are these coins going to be sent to The creditors well it could still take Some time and that's just because of the Way that some of these claims were filed On the 5th of July the trustee announced That they had started to make payments To quote some of the rehabilitation Creditors indeed at about the same time Large movements out of the mount ga's Wallets were made 47,2 129 Bitcoin to be exact now some of These went to other exchange claim Addresses as well the reason for this is That the trustee gave the GX creditors The option to receive their coins in

Specially designated crypto exchanges And soon after these movements had Happened there were a number of posts on G forums from users who said that the Funds were distributed to them already So it's clear that the funds are being Sent however what isn't as clear is when The rest will be distributed and that's Because at the time of shooting this Video according to Arkham intelligence At least most of the coins are still Sitting in cold wallets and this ties Into something else that was said in the Announcement letter by the trustee and That's that the rest of the payments are Likely to be made when certain Conditions are met and you can see Exactly what they are over here at the End of the document the trustee says Quote we ask eligible Rehabilitation Creditors to wait for a while now According to report by the block that While can be anything from 30 days up to 3 months and that's just because the Various exchanges and custodians where These claims were filed may have their Own very specific criteria for paying Out these creditors then if that is Coming in the next few weeks the Question turns to whether they will sell Hoddle or perhaps something in between But in order to determine that it's Important to delve in into the exact Profile of who these creditors are and

That's just because the type of creditor Will impact on whether they are likely To hit that sell button and how quickly They're likely to do it so who are these Creditors well I will get onto that in a Sec but before I do if you want to help Others see this video as well then help Out by giving it a boost with a like you May also want to subscribe and ping that Bell as well because there's lots of Exciting videos coming your Way so ma'am where exactly were you on The night of the murder I was right here Detective all night long you got anyone Who can back that up you mean an alibi Yeah that's the one no I was all on my Lonesome and what exactly were you doing All on your lonesome if you don't mind Me asking well keep it under your hat Detective but I was looking through the Coin Bureau deals page what's a coin Bureau deals page when it's at home it's Only the place where you'll find the Best discounts and Promos in all of Crypto what do you mean I mean trading Fee discounts of up to 70% and sign up Bonuses up to $100,000 on some of the best exchanges Holy smokes they got discounts on Hardware wallets too by any chance they Sure do detective like you wouldn't Believe well that sure sounds kind of Swell lady but just you give me one good Reason why I should believe a single

Word you say you don't have to take my Word for a detective take a look at the Link down below and see for yourself she Wasn't kidding those deals really were Something else turns out that crypto Ain't such a bad place after all you Just got to know your way Around anyways back to the creditors now One of the best indications of the Composition of these creditors is in a Research report from 2022 conducted by The blockchain research lab I will leave A link to it in the description for you Guys to come back and and read at your Leisure but what it basically says in Simple terms is how concentrated these Claims are I.E most of the total value Of these claims are held by a very small Subset of investors you can see exactly What that looks like over here the Bottom 50% hold just 1.3% of the claims and on the opposite End of the spectrum the top 1% hold and Get this over 50 % of the claims so in Other words just 226 creditors hold more than the rest of The 24,500 creditors combined but who are These whales well Japanese bankruptcy Law protects the identity of creditors In cases like this so we can't know for Certain however over the years a number Of these claimants have themselves Disclosed that they hold these claims

The first of these is the Mount goau Investments fund or MGF which was Apparently the largest creditor According to a Bloomberg article from Last year the fund had bought these Claims over several years however the Exact amount of the claim that the fund Owns is not really known then back in 2021 Bloomberg also reported that Fortress Investment Group was buying the Claims from creditors at the time it was Buying these claims at 80% of face value Which was the highest level they had Been trading at up to that point that Same report also pointed out that Fortress had been buying the claims for Years and had started buying them for as Low as $600 per Bitcoin then there is a US tech company called coin lab that was One of the original partners with Mount GX according to numerous reports coin Lab was pursuing over $170 million in Japanese courts what's important to note About this though is that the claims Seem to relate to a commercial agreement And not because they were users and Creditors of the exchange the company Also seems to have been dissolved since Then another defunct company that had Claims on Mount gox was Bitcoin now this Was a New Zealand based exchange that Was also hacked and declared insolvent Now the amount of the claims that were Disclosed in its bankruptcy filing were

About $29 million then of course there Were a number of large individual whales That could have had their own claims Against the exchange for example Jesse Powell who is the founder of Kraken Actually worked at Mount GX as a Consultant he also tried to get the Exchange back up and running in the Immediate aftermath of the hack and also Set up that cracken claim window there Is also Jed MB who was actually the Original founder of the exchange and Last but not least uh Bitcoin Jesus Himself Mr Roger via he claimed to have Lost 500 77 Bitcoin on the exchange Although I seem to think that the ga Claims are the least of his worries Right now now of course this picture may Have changed considerably since this was Disclosed and that's just because there Was such an active claims Market they Actually started trading way back in 2017 when an attorney created the my GRS Claim website and in the same year it Was reported in the financial times that There were numerous funds that were Trading these CL claims but what this Data tells us is something very clear The majority of the claims most likely Were bought by investors and funds over The years and these investors now need To make a decision of what to do with The coins when they are sent so will They sell or won't they well that really

Depends on the state of the investor or Creditor for example if they were one of The companies that went bankrupt since Gks went down then they are most Definitely going to sell on the opposite End of the spectrum the large individual Whales that have claims will be less Inclined to do so and that's just Because they have been holding on to These claims for so many years they Clearly aren't desperate for the money Remember there was an active claims Market and they could easily have sold These claims if they really needed the Liquidity so these Diamond handed types Are likely to continue in their coins Especially if they were the early Adopter kind you know they know the Long-term value of Bitcoin this isn't Just speculation in a tweet thread that I wrote about 2 months ago I referenced Reddit polls that were conducted on Several of the mount gaw's forums in These polls many plan to huddle their Coins and I also got numerous comments From GW creditors to that effect in a Video that I did around the same time so It's clear that the broader individual In investors are likely to huddle but The biggest wild card is what those Large funds who had been buying those Claims will do let's not forget their Thesis was to buy the claims hold the Risk and Arbitrage the gains on a full

Payout in order to bank their gains they Will have to sell these coins however They may also decide to Mark to Market Their gains and let their Bitcoin Positions ride to Valhalla indeed mgif Which as you know is the largest Creditor also disclosed to Bloomberg Last year that when the claims are paid They don't plan to sell which is Encouraging having said that this was Back in March of last year when Bitcoin Was trading at slightly above 20K things Have changed considerably since then and The fund will have to make the same Determination as all of us are making Right now where is the price going in my Opinion it would be foolish to think That there aren't large funds out there That are looking to close out their Trades and Bank their profits this is Especially the case if they weren't your Traditional crypto investor type uh sea Fortress for example as they only played The bankruptcy trade it would kind of go Against their mandate to huddle Bitcoin Exposure after the payout it's not just Me saying this um analysts at JP Morgan Have also said that they expect these Creditors to start taking profits on dis Ements John Glover who is the CIO of Crypto lending firm Leen also told CNBC Uh the windfall from these claims would Translate into Bitcoin sales so if there Is going to be this selling it naturally

Leads to the final question that we Outlined right at the beginning how will It affect bitcoin's price well there are Two components here the first is the fud Around the selling and the second is the Selling itself sometimes the former can Be more impactful than the latter indeed The price action that we have seen over The past two months is Testament to that People will sell if they think that There is the prospect of selling coming This includes both the spot Sellers as Well as those who hold the ETF shares However this also came at a time when The German government was dumping their Bitcoin Holdings so it could have been You know fed overload that drove the Markets lower when it comes to the Actual selling itself many seem to think That the market can absorb it and that's For a few reasons the first is the fact That large holders of these coins are Likely to look for buyers in the OTC Market and that's especially the case For funds that are looking to limit the Price impact of their selling as you no Doubt know OTC trades don't impact on Public order books and and are therefore Likely to have less of a significant Price impact but let's assume that the OTC route isn't taken some think that There is still enough liquidity in the Markets to absorb the pressure of large Scale selling and that's exactly what

James Butterfield of coin shares told CNBC quote liquidity is sufficient to Absorb these sales over the summer Months another analyst from CC data Reit Iterated that point and also highlighted That a large majority of the claim Buyers opted for early repayment with a 10% haircut that's actually something That mgif has also opted to do therefore It's likely that a portion of the coins That are available for distribution may Not be sent with this initial batch Something which could help to reduce the Selling pressure hey I mean every little Helps so then does this mean that we are Out of the Woods much ad do about Nothing not quite you see as mentioned Sometimes the fud around an event can Impact the price more than the event Itself in this case rumors of large Transfers and selling could cause the Price to fall which could cause those Creditors to be more Sketchshe to sell it could create a Self-fulfilling prophecy and that says Nothing about the impact of leverage and ETF flows which of course could Exacerbate that price action the market Is already quite skittish right now and Sentiment it's not looking too hot Therefore it's more than likely that Large transfers to exchanges and their Concommittant sell orders could drive The price lower however I think that

This is likely to be shortlived I mean It's not like the Bitcoin Market hasn't Faced large sell pressure recently let's Not forget those Gray scale gbtc flows That saw a total of $18.6 billion flowing out over a few Months that's considerably higher than That of all of the mount GX coins and That's also assuming that all of the Coins from GX will be sold something Which I elucidated earlier is very Unlikely and there is one more variable Here that you need to consider and that Is the fact that it's not just Bitcoin That is being distributed it's it's also An equal amount of Bitcoin cash and That's because the gaw bankruptcy Happened after the Bitcoin cash Fork so If those creditors are really looking For liquidity then they can just dump Their Bitcoin cash I mean not to cost Any aspersions at the DI hard Bitcoin Cash holders out there but if I was a Bitcoin OG that's the first thing I Would dump before considering touching My Bitcoin stack in fact a Bitcoin cash Short could be a decent hedge if you Really wanted to protect yourself from The short-term Bitcoin fund not Financial advice D yo R and all of That and that's it for my video today But of course it's not complete without Your all important feedback so what do You think of the GX fut Will the Market

Digest the celling or will it send us Back into a bare Market let me know in Those comments down below and of course If you like this vid then like this vid Give me a sub if you loved it and ping That Bell as well if you want to see More thank you very much for watching Nick out [Music]