Mohit Sorout: Bitcoin’s price acting differently in 2023

We haven't seen anything like this in The past ever losing money doing stupid Things I actually wanted to be a Footballer which is a little bit Depressing for a lot of people if you do Out of 100 things just one thing wrong And it's gone welcome to coin Telegraph's Crypt trading Secrets [Applause] Podcast [Applause] Hey everyone BJ pyrus here this Episode's guest is Mohit suret mahit is A crypto Trader who mainly participates In derivatives trading mahit has a Background in engineering and got into Crypto in 2017 okay here's mahit seret hey M great Uh to get you on crypto trading Secrets Hey B thank you for having me it's a Pleasure awesome so we'll dive into this And your background more in a bit but I Was just curious briefly here are you More of a Trader or an analyst and what Do you currently do in crypto and for a Career in general so basically we are Hardcore Traders core of our trading is Trend following and in the derivative Markets and apart from that we also do Some options trading but that is on the Smaller portion of our portfolio the Trend following that we do is mostly Bitcoin and Because that is where the liquidity is

Gotcha so you're basically a full-time Crypto Trader then or crypto and Mainstream markets or just crypto crypto Just crypto cool so normally the show Consists of three segments first is Finding the bottom where I ask guests What they think about bitcoin's price 2023 is more than halfway over now Bitcoin has seen prices under $117,000 and above $331,000 all inside of 2023 according to Coin telegraph's bitcoin price index Chart from macro longer term view what's Your opinion on the price of Bitcoin Taking into account 2023 so far as well As months ahead yeah so 2023 has been Quite different as opposed to the past Years of price action that we have seen On bitcoin for starters the volatility Model that we have it has signaled that The low regime that we have seen this Year we haven't seen anything like this In the past ever for Bitcoin especially And D only synthesis I can draw from That is that the longer this Consolidates in this range the higher The chances are that once the rally Begins the spring that has been held is Going to just explode and markets will Be in full proper rally lasting for Months also back in January I was Talking to I think borus from coin Telegraph and then we were discussing Even then that the price of Bitcoin was

Around 17K at that time and and we have Rallied almost twice not really twice But around 80% from there and my science Be still the same that we have seen the Worse in 2022 and I do not think that The price is going to retest those Levels that we saw when FTX collapse Having said that we there might be some Pullbacks in the future even right now But I am really excited for 2024 and 2025 especially Bitcoin yeah so it Sounds like you think Bitcoin has Bottomed already did I hear you right Yeah yeah interesting even our positions Are most of our spot Holdings have been Deployed through the course of this year Into Bitcoin and ethereum and as of now All our alos are long BTC indeed Interesting so do you think Bitcoin is Still in a bare Market it doesn't sound Like it I don't think it's in a bare Market we're buz that stage gotcha so do You want to just dive into a little bit More on what impacts your thoughts on That what might change your opinions Etc So the key level that I'm looking at Strictly in terms of price is somewhere Around 20 22k if there is acceptance of Price below that level on broader time Frames for example the 3D or even one Week then I think we are in trouble and Price may go much slower but the I Assign the probability of that to be Very less I do not think we are going

There interesting so what what do you Think has impacted bitcoin's price the Most so far in 2023 the most recent one That comes to mind is the bunch of ETF Filings that have been going around Especially in the US in I think Australia if I'm not wrong then there Was one in France so that is quite Positive and apart from that once FTX Blew up there was literally no one left To sell so it's a case of sellers Non-existent in the market who would Sell at 16k 17 game and you know that's When bottoms form when the selling stops Not when the buying begins so that was Also major factors for price to Stabilize at those levels gotcha so what Do you think will impact bitcoin's price The most for the rest of 2023 I think Haring is going to be a super strong Narrative as we have seen in the past as Well fundamentally it's huge in itself The new issuance is going to be hared of Course and then the hyp it brings to the Ecosystem is unparalleled there's Nothing like that event in crypto where Everyone is looking forward to it the Media starts writing there's a big Snowball Effect that starts to take Place so that is one big event that I'm Looking forward to that is the having is Somewhere around April in 2024 so There's not much time left for the Having so that's the next big mulat here

Interesting and you said something that Kind of piqued my interest earlier I'm Kind of delayed in in revisiting this in Your comments but I'm one wondering you Mentioned this cycle seems different Than all of the ones in the past you Just want to kind of go into a little Bit more detail on comparing and Contrasting like what you mean by that And like previous Cycles versus now sure So when I said that what I really meant Was as per the volatility model that we Have inh housee there's times where you Know Bitcoin bottles and then there is Lull period there is consolidation in The price and then the price starts to R So typically that's how we have seen Bottoms in the past but this time around The price did go to 16 17K and it found A bottom there but the pace at which it Has begun to rally is extremely slow to Even more quantify it so usually when we See consolidation for probably 2 to 3 Months then you get to see a few Breakouts and then there's an explosive Rally that takes place which shoots up Our indicator whereas this time around It's been the entire 2023 our model has Spent the entire year in that low range It hasn't really broken out which means The small rallies that we have seen have Not impacted the volatility in the Market so we haven't seen any volatility In 2023 yet which is a little bit

Depressing for a lot of people but on The brighter side when I look at it I Think in the future this compression Will bring good amount of expansion so The longer it compresses here the Expansion is going to be much more Stronger and beautiful gotcha so what do You think about future possible Bitcoin Cycles do you think the Bitcoin Bull and Bear Cycles will continue I think they Will because this what we have witnessed Till now and we will keep witnessing is The brand new asset coming into Existence and then creating a placee for Itself in the world and we are so far Away from gold I mean the biggest Comparison that used to come for Bitcoin Earlier was with gold but we haven't Even reached there I think it has much More as a tech as an asset it has much More value than gold in my opinion so There are going to be Cycles also Because there's one interesting point That people don't really have a real Time I'm digressing a little bit but People don't really have places to Gamble their money and go into Derivatives exch I mean really just go Full D mode that they can do in crypto Online and everyone right now is online People are spending more than what half Their waking time on the phone and on The internet and it's going to increase So people are going to gamble people are

Going to invest their money in crypto Which is why the bom and bus Cycles Happen because read and everything just It goes beyond the non so you see like 0 85% corrections I don't think it's going To stop any times at least 5 to 10 years This is going to keep going to happen That makes sense so as much as you're Comfortable talk to me about your Background when you were a kid what did You want to do when you grew up I Actually wanted to be a Footballer So when you say let me stop You for a second when you say footballer Are you talking about like soccer in the US soccer yeah okay gotcha sorry go Ahead yeah I got into soccer really Early on but my father he's in the Indian army so he had we live a quite a Disciplined life and you might have Heard Asians and South Asians they're Particular about their kids acing in the School as opposed to getting dis Sports So yeah that happened and then when I Grew up I was uh so parents have a big Say in children's future so I got into Engineering I did my dtech in electrical Engineering I worked in a couple of Startups after that I tried different Roles I did marketing I did software Development as well and back in 2017 is when I got into crypto yeah it's Been one great journey post that gotcha You sound like you're mostly a Trader or

Do you also invest or both or kind of How do you balance the two if you do Both we are mostly Traders but we do Take positional bets as well on a Collateral and but those are quite Longer term bets I would say probably 2 Three years having been in crypto for a Longer time has at least made us a bit Aware of the cycles and we get a decent Idea of when to you know go in and then When to sell our spoold things so we do Practice that with our collateral but I Would still say core of our trading is In derivative markets and that brings me To two different questions so when you Say weed who are you referencing so it's Uh me and my partner anit aot gotcha and When you talk about your trading how Long are you you typically hold Positions for um like what does it look Like for you to enter and exit a trade Um and you're kind of timeline on that So our style is basically a one where The win rate is lesser it's even less Than 40% and the losing trades are Shorter in duration so for example we Will have probably 10 to 12 trades in a Month when there is chop consolidation And when a winning trade comes it would Typically last for one and a half to two Months even three months that is when a Trend comes so it's sort of that so more Like swing trading it sounds like yeah You could say that cool and then how

Would you describe your trading strategy So is it technical analysis based kind Of what do you look for so it's Technical analysis based yes there are Literally no fundamentals involved in The strategy it's pure historical price Data fed into the algo and the algo that We have is a role based Alor so Literally all of the bitcoin's past Price data of 12 years is taken into Account and based on that based on a few Patterns that we have recognized we have Multiple alos we have multiple trading Systems where there is a breakout Trading system there's a purely Trend Based system that we have deployed on Bitcoin and E and how did you learn your Style of trading it's actually funny Because we kind of went broke in 2018 Because we thought we Geniuses holding On to the icos that we put our money in And that is when uh we actually sat down And we didn't really have background of Finance or trading we were engineers Both of us so it was a case of jumping And building your parachute on the way Down so back in 2019 we first learned About trading systems how to build them And parall we had to lose more in the Markets pay the tution fees to the Market in order to become profitable so It took us another half an year or so And that is when everything fell into Place and we had the systems ready and

We were profitable do you have any like Coding or programming experience in General and do you apply that to your Trading yeah it certainly helped that we Both had uh programming experience from Our jobs in the startups earlier so it Sort of came naturally for us as long as It meant that we had to rules that we Had we had to code them but getting Profitable was whole another Beast that We had to figure out still but knowing Programming definitely helped so how did You figure out your Edge that's an Interesting question I would say it's Sort of a journey so when we started we Were doing all sorts of mistakes losing Money doing stupid things and once we Are on that Journey we started studying More into the accounts of people who Have traded in the past for example Somebody some guy who would have made a Million dollars back in 1980s or 1990s What sort of strategies did they use how Did their Edge came about so we actually Looked at a lot of past Traders as well While losing money in the markets Ourself so that whole journey of keep Losing money in the market is what Actually gave us an edge because you Could lose doing just if you do out of 100 things just one thing wrong and O It's gone whereas for everything to fall Into place you have to do everything Right so that's how we actually arrived

At our Edge gotcha moving into the final Segment here which is the next Bull Run If I'm not mistaken it sounded like you Said Bitcoin is no longer in a bare Market in your opinion correct yeah That's true so would you say that it's Currently in a bull market or is there Another phase in there that you would Classify Bitcoin is currently I would Say we are in consolidation as of now Anything above 32k is bull market Territory for me in my opinion that Should take us to 48k in the medium term Which is the first real resistance that We might see in the shter gotcha so We're kind of like in an in between Period here is what you're saying yeah Yeah interesting and you kind of Answered the next question or two on That but what do you think might happen After Bitcoin has moved into a bull Market how do you think things will play Out in the months following if the rally Begins then I think 48k would be the First big stop that I see also because Of the longer low volatility we have Seen here in this price range I strongly Believe that there is not a lot of time That Bitcoin is going to spend around 48k or 45k or 50k those levels once we Hit that level you might see a bit of a Dip some consolidation but overall I Think we are in for a strong rally it May come in 202 3 or 2024 nobody knows

But I think the pit stops are going to Be less in the future the rally is going To behave as it did in 2016 and 17 That's my guess right now so how will You look to try and figure out the Timeline of bitcoin's next Bull Run and How long it might last I think it's fair To say that two years is a good time for The rallies to take place anything Beyond two years if the price is really High at that point by really high I mean At least three to fourx of the previous Alltime High which was 65k so that is Really high territory for me as of now Having said that Bitcoin has had in the Past at least for me I would try to Predict a price and then it overshoot by A long margin I've seen that happen with Me in the past so anything would happen But yeah two years is a fair enough time For the rallies to kind of plate you and Top up but that's quite long into the Future so it's anybody's guess it sounds Like you're saying you think this Potential upcoming bu run might be more Similar to 2017 than 2020/2021 can you maybe explain your Thoughts on that a little bit more yeah So in 2016 17 what we saw was again a Low volatility regime before the rally Began and the low volatility regime that We saw was for a shorter time period Whereas I have seen similar low wall

Regime right now but the time period has Been longer than that when we compare Both the scenarios so that is one main Reason for me to think that the price is Going to behave in a similar fashion Maybe it will overshoot more but there Are similarities between the two periods Because of the volatility that we have Seen until now gotcha so do you think Bitcoin's price will ever flatten out And stop having such large Bull and bare Market price swings I I think yes yeah Anything beyond a 10 trillion market cap Or 10 to 20 I think post that the Cycles Will dampen the Cycles will be there but The extremities will definitely take a Step back interesting and last few Questions here so what role do you think Bitcoin plays as an asset why do you Think people are willing to invest in it I know you kind of touched on this a Little bit already I mean for me it's Quite simple really in the entire History of mankind there was never Method for somebody sitting in a place And then they wanted to send let's say a Few million dollars or even a billion Dollars to somebody else across the Earth and for lesser fees for minimal Time nobody no intermediate party in Between to you know keep track of your Transaction it's a powerful thing that Never existed and it exists now so I Think that's just one big point for

Bitcoin to have done gotcha and what Could potentially make Bitcoin go Extinct if anything in your opinion I Think if somebody figured out a way to Crack Seed phrases if they built a super Computer there have been some Rumors in The past people say oh if they could Build such a computer that who Calculates at x amount of speed then you Could crack a seed phas within shorter Period of time that or if people figure Out a way to attack the chain itself G Control of the hash power so that is Also one big worry neither of those Things I think are going to happen but Yeah those two factors are quite pivotal Interesting but it sounds like like you Said it sounds like you don't think There's high risk of those either of Those happening yeah it's Lindy at play The Lindy effect the more time Bitcoin Spends being alive the more chances of It survival increase cool thank you so Much for coming on the the show here and Chatting thank you so much for having me It's been such a pleasure chatting with You awesome you as well okay thanks Everyone for listening and we will catch You next time thanks for tuning in to Crypto trading Secrets presented by coin Telegraph we'll catch you next [Music] Time


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