Michaël van de Poppe: Bitcoin in 2023 and more

Bitcoin is going to be uh the big winner Or the big loser who knows then we crash Bitcoin gets banned into the us or Whatever B Mark so you're losing money Then Additionally you still have to pay The bills just keep on pushing that Unless you're just learning and learning And moving around welcome to coin Telegraph's crypto trading Secrets Podcast Hello all your host BJ pyus here Michael Vop is the guest for this episode Michael has a robust Twitter following Of more than 650,000 he trades and Invests full-time participating in Multiple different markets including the Crypto Market Michael is also the Founder and CEO of crypto education and Consultancy firm MN trading without Further Ado here's Michael vop hey Michael thanks so much for joining the Show to chat thank you very much for Having me on yeah it's really great to Have you on so jumping right in here Typically the show has three parts first Is finding the bottom during which I ask Guess what they think about the price of Bitcoin so we're almost halfway through 2023 now Bitcoin saw prices Below $177,000 in January and traded up past $30,000 in April according to coin Telegraph's bitcoin price index chart so Far June has seen prices between 25 and $228,000 roughly from a macro longer

Term view what's your opinion on Bitcoin's price taking into account 2023 So far as well as the months ahead well I mean ultimately if you ask on social Media what the uh outlook for Bitcoin is Currently I think overall you will be Getting an answer of Bitcoin going to 12K and such I think the sentiment is Really bad at this point and I think That's being pushed a lot by what's Happening in the legal framework in the US and all the issues we have on the Macroeconomic playing field while Tech Is doing really well uh the rest of the Markets aren't so where are we looking Right now at the period comparable to 2019 in the beginning of 2020 or it's Comparable to let's say the end stage of 2015 in the beginning of 2016 I think if We take the foure cycle for Bitcoin we Are somewhat in those periods in which Which we are into the playing field of Price being very boring going sideways Accumulation periods where price just Chops in a very narrow range and where You can just easily accumulate where People are not getting liquidated based On the fact the price is really dropping But people are getting liquidated Because time is just taking a longer Period and the runway for companies is Getting shorter and shorter because There's simply no interest from retail So I think in terms of the overall

Playing field for Bitcoin if you look at What 2023 has brought so far as you Mentioned Bitcoin has been beneath 17K In January we are currently trading at 26k which means that we're doing Actually quite well although we are not Having the big impulse move that we Wanted but originally we have been Acting on levels that we were not Expecting to see one and a half year ago So when you would have been saying in The beginning of 2022 where are we Trading later this year I think nobody Expected that we would see 15K we've Been going through a complete disaster When it comes to defi companies going Bankrupt in terms of Celsius in terms of Blockfi in terms of Luna and we've had The exchange being uh FTX being Collapsed at the end of the year and Then still after doubt we're trading at 26k so I think overall we are into an Accumulation period it's quite unsure What are we going to retest the lows I Don't believe that we will we could Argue that we're currently having a Relatively normal correction in terms of Going from around 31k to 26k is pretty standard the only thing That's quite harsh right now is the fact That altcoins are just completely Collapsing and that is mostly being Pushed by the fact that um the Regulatory framework is being shifted so

I think overall it's comparable to 2016 Beginning and in the 2019 stage where You just accumulate and where you just Wait and the rest is noise until the Bull Mark starts to kick in interesting So do do you think Bitcoin is still in a Bare Market I don't believe we will be Retesting or making newer lows so Theoretically that would mean that we Already at the start of the bll if you Go back in the previous Cycles the Bottom of the 2014 2017 cycle was also Somewhere 2015 we had a retest Afterwards but then we didn't come back To the lows the same kind of happened in 2018 2019 2020 on which we made a low at Like 3 2K in November 2018 didn't really Revisit the lows and I think we wouldn't Be testing those lows at all unless Bitmax engine started to fill hence why We started to drop to 3.8k so I think The chances of being bosomed out and Being into a bull cycle if you look at It from a theoretical aspect I think That uh the chances are quite heavily Skewed towards positive that we finished The entire bare Market unless some crazy Regulatory Frameworks are going to be Built that Bitcoin gets banned into the Us or whatever but I think that we're Actually in the start of a bull cycle And that is usually the period where It's boring as I mentioned and the Interest from retail isn't there retail

Picks up later in the cycle institutions Are usually picking up in this period or The smart money or the wheels how you Want to phrase that and that's what you Can see in terms of fidelity Black Rock All the big parties are jumping into the Markets giving the ability of Institutional investors to be trading Into ETFs or cfds opening up more Liquidity into the markets so they can Also push the prices down a little bit More but those are the ones that are Currently accumulating and not retail And I think that clarifies that or You're currently in a stage of Accumulation and actually finish the bar Market gotcha so what do you think has Impacted bitcoin's price the most so far In 2023 I think overall the crypto Markets tended to move alongside indices At the beginning of year and I think They are more or less correlated to Gold Instead of indices because last few Months you can see that the entire Correlation has flipped why is that well Technically mostly due to some intrinsic Market environments that are taking over Uh we've got the bance SEC case we've Got the coinbase SEC case still got the Exrp case so the entire regulatory Framework is being built right now so I Think that the crypto markets overall Don't have that much liquidity which Makes it easy to move markets and I

Think that those intrinsic Market Challenges that we have have been Pushing the prices down but I think that The micro playing field in terms of the Inflationary data in terms of Unemployment and the fat making Decisions has also been pushing all the Markets in which we can also see that Gold has been correcting a little bit Since the all-time high uh test and Since then Bitcoin has also been Correcting I think that currently Bitcoin tends to move more toward a Commodity than that it is moving towards The indices and I think that over the Years we will continue to do so but so Far in 2023 it's been very correlated to What gold and were you mentioning Indexes is that what you were saying M Okay gotcha I just wanted to clarify Yeah equities and the US indes so like S&P and the Dow they the correlation has Flipped into a negative manner in the Past I would say six to eight weeks well Before that we were moving alongside and Actually the correlation between gold And Bitcoin started to Rally a bit more But you don't see that much of a Discussion currently everywhere but I Think the fact that Bitcoin starts to Move more like gold makes sense that Means that Bitcoin starts to become a Relative Safe Haven and starts to act Like one as gold always has to be has

Been one like that as well gotcha and You might have touched on this a little Bit but what do you think will impact Bitcoin's price the most for the rest of 2023 I think if there's Clarity on the Framework that's being established in The US in terms of whether or not Cryptos are going to be Securities or Commodities that's going to push markets Is because if you have that framework it Opens up for more institutional Investors I don't believe that the us is Going to be the big one I think the Other parts of the world are already Stepping in Asia is very Progressive Europe already launched MAA which is Some sort of Regulation that is going to Enable investors institution investors To get into the markets through a Certain framework I think the US is Behind but the more we get clarity on That it's going to be beneficial for the Markets and activate more liquidity into The market and I think additionally What's going to move markets for Bitcoin Is mostly going to be coming from the Macroeconomic playing field which is a Potential continuation of the rate hikes A pause of the rate hikes an Acceleration of unemployment through Which a recession kicks in and a pivot Needs to happen I think all those Factors are going to move all the Markets including Bitcoin and that's

What we need to find out in the rest of The year whether or not there's going to Be a recession and whether or not Bitcoin is going to be uh the big winner Or the big loser who knows interesting So what do you think about future Possible Bitcoin Cycles will the Bull And Bear Cycles continue maybe what will They look like and have things Permanently changed from the past if That makes any sense or if you need me To clarify I can I think what we have Seen is that we've had the fouryear Cycle the fouryear cycle is pretty much A self-fulfilling prophecy it has the Hing included and usually one to one and A half year after alling there's the uh The Peak High of the cycle then we crash Usually six to 12 months before the next Hing is the bottom also for altcoins and Then we slowly start to Pace up into a New cycle I think ultimately the cycle Of 2014 to 2018 had its own ingredients So there were some variables on a Microeconomic playing field that has Been disturbing the price action of Bitcoin but also has been moving the Price action of Bitcoin so in terms of Strength or weakness of the dollar that Already took place during that cycle Through which you can also argue that The previous cycle from 2018 to 2021 was Quite similar although we've had Covid-19 we've had QE we've had a weq

Dollar which pushed the prices up and I Think ultimately this cycle will still Be the same although the variables have Shifted a little so we are currently in The QT phase quantitive tightening we Are in a phase where the interest rates Are being accelerated and there are Hikes potentially recession but in the End it's just noise and usually price Repeats its cycle repeats history uh Through which I assume that in this Cycle we still will be having the rally Towards the Hing we'll still have a Self-fulfilling prophecy after offing Especially given that the legal Framework and Regulatory framework is Being established giving more liquidity To the markets more an ability to build From a fundamental framework or basis so We can actually start growing in terms Of adoption I think over time I believe That this is probably going to be the Last cycle that's going to be fouryear Cycle simply put if we are having Another bull market where Bitcoin goes Through the alltime high reaches new Numbers I think ultimately we are going To reach a stage where the significance And the size of the crypto markets are Going to be relatively large which means That to continue the fouryear cycle it's Going to be quite hard to establish so Much liquidity in the markets again to Continue that pace so what I think will

Be taking place is that if the Frameworks are established and we are Opening up we have one more relatively Hype cycle and after that the Cycles Will just start to take longer before we Reach the new alltime highs simple Because a whole thing doesn't have to be The only variable that is moving markets Microeconomics are going to take over Variables are going to be into play and Simply you need liquidity to move Markets and the large you get the harder It will be which is also gold used to Have relatively short Cycles when it Just got onto the stock markets too and Now it's a very long paced cycle for Instance before we go back to the Alltime highs it took approximately 14 Years so it's going to take longer and I Think we are into the final let's say Foure cycle that is going to be a Self-fill prophecy interesting that's a Lot of lot of good thoughts there so Thanks for weighing in on that section Next section uh let's move into trade Secrets so so as much as you're Comfortable talk to me about your Background when you were a kid what did You want to do when you grew up well It's kind of funny I asked my mom and Dad a few months ago and they said when I was a kid I was watching a Dutch TV Show which is called Aral Z and it's a TV show that is based on the stock

Market so they give updates on Everything that's happening on the stock Market you can see the data and stuff And I've been writing down those numbers So apparently when I was a young kid I Was already liking the stock markets but Didn't really actually activate that at All so then uh my background and what I Wanted to be is being an entrepreneur I Wanted to be relatively free in the Sense of doing my job anywhere I can Anytime I can if I don't want to do it I Just don't do it at all and then during My studies of Economics I got into touch With crypto and I think from there Everything clicked I started to get Interested and I saw the potential of Crypto and um instead of working less I'm working more now but I think that's Just shortterm thing at least least the Interest got triggered and I think once You found a topic that you really like You start to feel that you are Interested and you start to get Motivated and you're just focusing on it So originally from me as a kid I think I Had interest into everything that is Surrounding numbers and stock markets But uh only activated when I got into Crypto which is at the beginning of 2017 So it sounds like markets and stuff like That have have been an interest for you For a long time then yeah they have they Have I've always been checking it I mean

The crisis of the real estate markets in 2008 and 2009 I've actively seen in my Family too so basically from that period I was like okay so these things can Happen how can I prevent that how can I Learn from this how can I start to make Sure that I'm not making those mistakes Myself or being hurt by any of those Crisises how can I establish a future That I'm going to be free at some point Instead of working a 9-to-5 job that I Maybe like so from that I was an Interest already and then I wanted to Become an entrepreneur I started to sell Some products learned a lot did work out For a little while then I got stuck up By just being a small player and then at Some point crypto came along and that Opened up a ton of opportunities in the Sense of researching investing building Your entire portfolio living the free Life um and after that everything just Went a little bit too fast in the sense Of growing a social media account and Educating other people but uh I still Enjoy it and I think this is traveling a Lot working from every place that you Want is probably a a gift and I think it Helps the mind and it helps the body and It's actually a step that I really Wanted from back in the day that I was Just trying to make some money with Selling products so you're a full-time Trader correct yes that's correct gotcha

And you trade for a company no I'm Trading for myself but with the company Which is M and trading we are currently Testing out abilities for clients to Just deposit them money so we trade for Them too but that is still relatively Difficult to activate but we are Currently um trying to establish that With multiple parties and then we will Be trading for client money too Interesting do you trade and invest in Multiple different markets or just Crypto no I'm investing into multiple Markets especially what I've learned Over the Cycles as I mentioned I'm in in In crypto since the beginning of 2017 so I've had I would say two buom markets And I'm into my second bare Market What I've learned is that staying into Crypto solely is not really beneficial For your portfolio it decreases the Ability to remain flexible to keep your Wealth as as a effect which means that At some point you can make a lot of Money into crypto but at some point it's Not about making more money but Defending what you have so I think Having a conservative relaxed Investment Portfolio makes sense through which you Don't want to have day-to-day Fluctuations of 10 to 20% but you want To have a solid conservative portfolio That just generates a certain amount of Roi year after year which means I'm just

Simply having cash in my portfolio I'm Having Commodities in my portfolio so as I mentioned gold silver uranium as Effect actually I got crypto but then I Just have Bitcoin and E and A few Altcoins and just barely any allocation Towards them I don't have real estate I Don't have stocks but at some point I Will if the markets are going to provide Me the opportunity so I think I'm just Ly Diversified with my Investment Portfolio which I just rebalance over Time and that is for me a relatively Relaxed and balanced approach going Through my life in the sense that uh I Really don't want to wake up every day Thinking that my crypto portfolio is up 10 to 20% of my entire portfolio is Swinging like that yeah that makes sense How would you describe your trading Strategy are you technical analysis Based uh what does it look like like in Terms of investing I'm more or less Focused on on a fundamental approach and I'm more or less focused on my portfolio In a way that I'm looking at a Fundamental approach in the sense of Digesting whether or not there will be a A fat policy switch or whether or not There will be a potential at the end of The cycle regarding indices so there's a Recession or the crisis occurring Through which I am using that Fundamental approach to rebalance my

Portfolio so let's assume that I've got 25% in Commodities 25% in crypto 25% in Into cash and 25% in real estate at some Point let's say that if crypto does Really well that means that my portfolio Balance is going to be skewed towards Crypto and regardless of what's Happening in the markets I think that I'll just adjust the growth that I have In crypto towards other assets that are Underperforming so I'm sticking into a Relatively balanced view in that way I Don't really care about fundamentals but When fundamentals come into play is when I think that I want to reshuffle the Balances so maybe at some point gold is Going to outperforming heavily gets Towards the top of the cycle I might Argue that I want to have 5% in Commodities more in cash more in crypto Etc so I'm using a fundamental approach And just a rebalancing portfolio Approach when it comes to Investments And when I'm trading I'm mostly focused On technical analysis and just trying to Find the optimal spot have a position Close it at TP or get stopped out Depends and then just move on towards The next one the profits are going to be Used towards my Investment Portfolio That I just rebalance over time and Through having such approach when it Comes to TA and the trading portfolio That I have I can just easily log out

And just not trade for a few weeks Because it doesn't really matter to me I Have my Investment Portfolio and that's Fine and I just can log off from the Screen so with the training portfolio Definitely looking at TA mostly but uh With the Investment Portfolio it's more Skewed towards fa and portfolio balances Interesting so how much time effort and Of your capital do you put toward Trading versus investing what I try to Do is that I've got like three Portfolios which is I've got an Investment Portfolio which is all Market I've got a sort of swing trade portfolio And I've got a trade portfolio which is Used for day-to-day sculpts or um day Trade positions that I hold for a few Days and not longer so the balances that I have is usually I think the higher you Get the more it should be towards the Investment and swing trade portfolio so Let's assume you've got 10K and you're Trading it makes sense to take more risk And have like 40% of your Investment Portfolio 50% swing trade and 10% into Trading but given the fact that you're Growing and you're getting older you Want to have a lower risk appetite so if You're reaching numbers like 100k for Instance it makes sense that you're Going to grow your Investment Portfolio And such and that way if I look at my Portfolio and the balances that I have I

Think around 70 to 75% is into the Investment Portfolio approximately like 15 to 20% is into the swing trade Portfolio and I think between 5 to 15 It's swinging a little bit but that is What I trade on a day-to-day basis and At some point I'll just make sure that The trade portfolio goes to zero and I'm Just enjoying my life having the Investment Portfolio and the swing trade Portfolio gotcha thanks for explaining Last part in this segment what was the Hardest part about learning to trade and What was learning to trade like for you I mean the hardest part is losing it all So going back into my history I've Experienced 2017 I've had some big wins During that year I think everybody who Went in that cycle has made some money But then I started to have some real Confidence and I went fulltime on January 1st 2018 that's a tough time to Start the worst time to start was January 1st 2018 I guess alongside me a Dutch fund also went public during January 1st 2018 and we both experienced A pretty rough time because your backs Are going down you never experienced the B Mark so you're losing money then Additionally you still have to pay the Bills and you're like experiencing a Cycle part that you've never experienced So you have no clue how to trade that Unless you're just learning and learning

And moving around so I think the hardest Part is having having the ability to Bounce back but also experience the lows As I think failure is are the periods Where you actually growing so that was For me the hardest part in the sense That you lose it all you still have the Bills to pay you like what you do but You have trouble getting motivated again As the markets are just going down again Day after day and sentiment is terrible People are leaving markets I think That's the hardest part to stay Motivated during that period and to just Continue pushing forward so uh yeah I Can imagine that during a cycle like This especially as you can see that the Retail is really locked out of crypto There's no real interest I think a bunch Of people will have the same feeling we Jumped into 2021 and currently Experiencing the first real bad Market As altcoins are back to the cycle lows Just keep on pushing at some point you Will be rewarded if you keep on going Right now and that's what I've done in 2018 too gotcha thank you so moving into The final segment which is the next Bull Run if I'm not mistaken I think you Mentioned that you think we are already In a new bull market for Bitcoin is that Right yeah I think theoretically if we Don't sweep the low that would mean that We're into bull market already and

Usually Bitcoin tends to be stronger Than altcoins during the first part of The cycle so in that case unless we Sweep the low it's very likely that We're currently into the start of a new Bull cycle already okay so could you Potentially give your thoughts on the Two different outcomes so what might Happen in your opinion in the next Several months if Bitcoin does sweep the Lows and then what might happen in your Opinion if uh Bitcoin possibly doesn't Sweep the lows does that make sense yeah I mean there are a lot of variables that We clearly are we don't know the outcome So we don't know what is most likely Going to happen if the FED for instance Passes how long they are going to pause What the impact will be to the markets If you're going to get a ban of crypto Into the US I think ultimately the the Chances are or the scenarios are quite Similar to what we've experienced in the Previous Cycles which means if we going To reach the low as the first scenario If we reach the low I think we will have A quick sweep like we've experienced in Covid-19 break towards a number of Between 12 to 18K get in that region Have a very fast wck down and bounce Back up relatively fast and from there The grind upward takes place which is Just the final depression phase or the Final I would say Wick a liquidation Etc

What could happen in that case what Would be a potential scenario of that Happening I think in order to have that To take place we must see another Exchange falling down that means binance Needs to collapse otherwise I don't see This scenario taking place or a Potential crisis starts to take place Already and it's worse than a recession So a liquidity crunch is taking place Where also the equities are dropping Really fast like the 2008 bubble Collapse Etc I think in this case that's Not really optimal which means that We've had the exact same example in March where six Banks collapsed Bitcoin Dropped first through a liquidity Crunch And then we started to bounce up very Swiftly I think that if there is going To be a crisis and as I mentioned Bitcoin starts to move like gold I think That Bitcoin actually starts to move Upwards instead of downwards as people Are jumping out of the banking system Into crypto so in order to have the First scenario take place where Bitcoin Goes towards 12 to 18K I think really Binance needs to collapse the scenario What we have is that we are basically Just continuing to range between 20 to Let's say 35 40K so we can still have Like another rally up what's required For that is then a case where the FED Passes usually when the FED starts to

Pass it is giving a lot of extra relief Into the markets and I think if during That period the unemployment starts to Rally inflation goes down more than Expected but unemployment starts to Rally shows that the economy is Weakening there usually is ingredient For gold to start rallying too which Means that Bitcoin might start to have An uptrend needs to hold above a few Levels but let's say 20K is going to be The end of the correction I think we can Start have another rally towards 35 to 40K and then it's up to what is going to Happen later in the year whether or not The recession kicks in and whether or Not we're going to have liquidity crunch So optimally if binance is not going to Collapse which I think is not going to Take place I think in the range of 20 to 25k that we're seeing beneath us is a Case that we could be finding ourselves In higher low or finding ourselves the End of this correction especially if the Fat is going to somewhere in the summer Starts to pass the entire QT I think That is when the relief starts to kick In for crypto so those are the two Scenarios that I'm basically trading at This point and so correct me if I'm Wrong but it sounds like you use a lot Of other factors other than just Charting do you maybe want to just Explain a little bit on what how much

You use charting versus other Information for your investing and your Trading like for trading as I mentioned I'm using uh price action and ta Basically a naked price action Trader so That's when the TA comes in SO trading For me is that I position myself into a Swing trade position or that I'm going To hold for a few weeks or in case of Altcoins for a few months or for day Trading purposes so then I don't really Matter which way the markets are going To go to I just want to have a trade Where I make money so in terms of Altcoins I think over all the coming few Months or the periods where you want to Build your position into them usually I Would say 9 months 12 months before the Bitcoin offing is the best moment to get Into them but when I discuss a potential Cycle low or the scenarios of where Bitcoin is going to go to in the next Six months that is for my investment Thesis and then the fundamentals start To kick in so I want to have a thesis For myself that is basically defined Through through fundamental aspect so I Want to see the policy shifts I want to Know what the regulatory framework does And then I add the price action of Bitcoin so for instance in March we had A relatively harsh correction from I Think 26 to like 20K that is being Fueled by fundamental aspects of banks

Collapsing and then the price started to Fall more than expected that people were Shorting and also assuming that we were Going to go to 12K then the fundamental Aspect of the banks collapsing Additionally with the RSI levels or the Priz levels or everybody shorting during That case is for me the the strategy That I take so with investing I combine Them and the first thing I'm looking at Is fundamental and then I'm looking at Prize action or ta gotcha awesome just About wraps it up thank you so much for All your just answering all the Questions and chatting with me about all This it's been great yeah thank you very Much for having me and uh it was a Pleasure to be here in your show and I'm Wishing you all the best in the future For the show as well thank you Appreciate it thanks for tuning in to Crypto trading Secrets presented by coin Telegraph we'll catch you next Time