Ledgerstatus (Brian Krogsgard): Talking Bitcoin, background and more

10K wasn't a good price 3K wasn't a good Price 20K 30k 40K none of those were Good prices you're calling me at 50k or 60k why it's like where were you for the Last like five years you got to get Those people out of the market I Remember learning about Binger bands on Yaho finance when my dad is like a ninth Grader Hello and welcome to crypto trading Secrets presented by coin Telegraph I'm Your host BJ pyus this episode's guest Is Brian krogg guard who goes by the Name Ledger status on Twitter Brian is a Trader podcaster and co-founder of nft Platform flip. XYZ involved in the Crypto space on multiple levels Brian Has a sizable Twitter following of over 220,000 all right here's Brian krogg Guard hey Brian thanks for visiting the Show hey it's a pleasure to be here Thanks for having me yeah I really Appreciate you coming on so I often ask About how guests chose their Twitter Names and you have an interesting one And so how did you pick the name Ledger Status uh it was actually just a Derivative of what I was doing before With a different brand in the web space That's where the status came from it's Just the first word is different so I Came up doing analysis in the web Industry and got into crypto when I I Was following too many people from my

Like other Twitter accounts that were Crypto related and it was distracting From more of the web stuff I was like I Need a different Twitter account and Status of The Ledger seems like a Perfectly reasonable thing to to name Myself and so there it was it wasn't Really a big thought Process so the show usually has three Parts finding the bottom is the first Segment in which I ask guests what they Think about bitcoin's price amid the Bare market so far in 2023 bitcoin's Price has moved up from near the mid to Upper $116,000 range to up past $25,000 according to coin telegraph's Bitcoin price index chart so from a Macro longer term view what's your Opinion on bitcoin's price taking into Account the last few months and the Months ahead of course when you go to Like 155 or whatever we went to you know We're 60% off the bottom so that's a Pretty big move relative to the lows but At the same time even today which for You know 25k is that's 64% off the top And on in total Bitcoin at the bottom Went 78% off the top that's pretty Typical for what you might expect in a Market cycle even though there was a lot Of questions during the bull market that Seem silly now if like will a bare Market look the same in the future turns Out looked pretty much the same and

Continues to look the same and in terms Of what's that mean now it's a difficult Place to take a new trade we're at some Degree of long-term you know multi-week Resistance at the same time as we're Still well off the top so people who are Patient people who are know dollar cost Averagers probably will be happy in a Multi-year sense even if they bought at These prices but if you're trying to say Like I'm going all in or all out or Something like that from a price like We're at right now you could be in tears You know within days or weeks depending On news flow or or Fallout or or Whatever could occur you know contagion That has takes a while to figure itself Out or just the macro narrative so 25k Is a little bit of No Man's Land and Yeah it's uh it's great though to see Like how far it is off the bottom just Be it's going to put a lot more Demand On that bid sub 20K as we retest it or If we retest it but I wouldn't I don't Think there's a need to be like in some Kind of Rush gotcha so I think you Touched on this a little bit but Basically what's your opinion on where You think bitcoin's price might in terms Of the bare Market on an overall level Here at 25k and at the time of recording We're right at the 200 we moving average Which prior to this Market cycle has Always held at least on a weekly closing

Basis now of course there haven't been Many opportunities for that to hold There was one in 2020 two touch points In 2018 2019 at the bottom of that bare Market and then it rode along it for Half the 2/3 of 2015 and bitcoin's a Young asset so if if you're looking at a Long-term moving average like the 200 we Moving average which is just like the Most common moving average that Traditional technical Trend Traders look At it has held those touch points Previously the difference this time is We're looking at that same level but From the underside right so it's it's Resistance at this moment so it is if it Was flipped it might signal like that There's a broader Trend shift there's no Real evidence of that right now that Like the bottom can be in but it could Also be like a road from here those are Not like inconsistent statements does That make sense yeah it does so are you Talking about I think you might have Mentioned it are you talking about the Daily or the weekly 200 weekly moving Average okay and are you thinking Exponential moving average or I use Simple moving averages okay do you want To just dive into the the two different There's two different ones correct yeah Exponential moving average just weights Closer candles to the current candle More heavily and it allows the moving

Average to respond more quickly I've Found personally that the simple moving Average is cleaner for me and it's what I think more people actually look at and That's what makes it more important to Me from a trend perspective is I want to See what other people see and pay Attention to so I became convinced of The power of simple moving averages Simple tools similar to horizontal Support and resistance moving averages Can be really helpful when you're Determining Trend and horizontal levels Can be really helpful when you're Looking at Price relative to previous Price action I think in combination they Work very very well so there is both a Previous horizontal level here from August 2022 one that we had a small Bounce off of and then we eventually Broke down out of 20K and down to 15K With I believe that was the FTX news in November and now we're basically back at That level if we can clear this then Maybe sitting at 30k in pretty short Order and then that'll be the next like Horizontal resistance and we'll be above The 200 week and then the 25k becomes Support you know it's not like rocket Science or anything it's just kind of Like where have we been and where could We go and what are the points where the You know price might want to stop in Between and what does that actually

Represent which is People's Market Psychology of like what's their cost Basis and what prices do they feel good About and if you get over a level like This then the 30k round number plus Horizontal levels that we used as Support in the bull market in 2021 Bounced off of and when we broke down From it was violent so that makes it Pretty nice uh Target to the upside if We can clear these levels and it could Do that quite quickly bitcoin's been Moving fast recently so over the past Year what do you think the biggest thing Impacting bitcoin's price has been oh Man uh liquid liquidity people just do Not have spare liquidity for a multitude Of reasons they have counterparties that Went bankrupt and that might have forced Them to lose money they got coins stuck On count you know places that went Bankrupt lost access to them lost in Trading lost because of taxes whatever And those are all challenges for uh Liquidity and you need liquidity for the Healthiest of markets and so that's been A challenge I would actually say the Problems go way before that with Bitcoin Because we saw with FTX there was Massive rehypothecation of Bitcoin so Bitcoin that should have been Bitcoin Was sold you know so the Bitcoin people Thought they had on FTX was not there And and FTX was selling it to do other

Things and that rehypothecation was Actually a burden to bitcoin's price Even in the bull market and now that you Have liquidity issues it's just been a Consistent kind of drag on on price and Presented challenges for a year and then So gotcha and you you again you touched On this a little bit in your answer in The beginning but how does bitcoin's Bare Market this time compared to Previous bare markets there was a lot More money involved and a lot more like Institutional money not just early Believers and things like that or just Like retail Mania there was also retail Mania but I think most of the retail Mania actually didn't occur in Bitcoin Whereas the big institutional money did Occur in Bitcoin I think most of the Retail Mania was in like Doge you know Things like that so that was a big Impact otherwise pretty similarly they Were very volatile the percent down was Pretty similar and I think one of the Things that's different is people Expected it to be different this time And then it Wasn't you know you had a significant Draw down and you need time for the Market to heal and repair and big Question now is has it had enough time And I don't know I don't know the answer To that other than I really don't expect Like all-time highs in any near term

Like let's say in 2023 or even first Half of 2024 I think it could take quite A while for Bitcoin to work its way back Up to those prior highs and find price Exploration gotcha so let's move into The next segment called trade secrets so Basically just tell me about your Background or as much as you're Comfortable sharing let's start with What did you want to do as a career when You were younger and I've always had an Entrepreneurial spirit and then I did Engineering in school kind of preparing Myself for what type of Entrepreneurship I might want to see someday and worked For a company for a while worked for Other companies tell myself to code but I think I always envisioned that when I Grow up I want to do something where I Have control that's uh from an Entrepreneur perspective like own my own Business or run a business or do Something like that I've always had that Itch so I think that's fairly accurate I Don't I certainly wouldn't have known It's like anything software related or Anything like that but yeah I would have Probably guessed that when I was a child Interesting and then how did you get Into trading and investing yeah my my Dad actually gave me I think 800 bucks Or something because it was like 8th Grade and it wasn't 800 bucks to go Spend it was $800 to invest that was the

One limitation is I had to invest it at The same time you know he was saving for Retirement he and my mom were and they Wanted to teach me about what that meant And so they gave me control and the Ability to see actually what it means When you trade invest what he it was Really more investing than trading but You know he had a little bit of a Trading at side of him too so I I dug Into the stock market as a middle Schooler and actually continued putting Savings from jobs and internships and Stuff like that both in middle in high School and college um so I I learned a Lot of the basics of of investing in Both even a combination of fundamental And Technical investment strategies I Remember learning about Binger bands on Yahoo finance with my dad is like a Ninth Grader um and you know looking at some Of the fundamental metrics like PE Ratios and stuff as a high schooler so I Was interested in those things in high School and you know I had my first uh Stock trading accounts like a say as an Eighth grader and so I've always kind of Had that component of it and that helped Me when I got into crypto immediately Start to think of like well how do I Look at this you know technically or With a a fundamental analysis in Addition to just I think Bitcoin is Cool

Tech or ethereum is Cool Tech gotcha and Then how did that lead into crypto after When you eventually got into crypto yeah So I was a self-taught web developer was A active web developer in the 2010s and Heard about Bitcoin on Hacker News in 2011 2012 and I have a public tweet Making uh not making fun of Bitcoin Actually making fun of Justin Bieber Starting a VC Firm uh and I said like I thought Bitcoin on Hacker News was annoying and Then you know Justin Bieber Starting a VC firm was on Hacker News that day and I looked back at that and was 2012 the Price was $7 and about to break out and You know go to Infinity forever I did Not buy Bitcoin then and I didn't think Of it as investable despite you know Having a little bit of a trading side of Me I thought it was just internet cash You know didn't really consider it as Something that you invest in for the Number to go up over time that started To become a little more clear to me but Actually what got me excited about Bitcoin or and crypto in general Ethereum specifically was the Programmatic aspect so like I said from The web industry thinking of oh you know Like you can actually run programs and You know these smart contracts are Really cool for making information on a Blockchain programmatic that was

Fascinating to me and then the like Investability and you know store value And all that kind of stuff started to Click a little bit better as well that Got into the ecosystem as a whole but it Took ethereum for me to actually Appreciate Bitcoin which weird enough Interesting so let's dive into your Trading and investing a little bit more How would you describe your trading Strategy I like to have kind of Long-term thesis cyclical driven ideas And then I really consider myself kind Of a swing Trader so I'm not in trades For minutes or hours or honestly even Like days I would typically time trades From myself in at least a few weeks up To years you know of uh hey I think uh I Think the crypto markets are going to do Well so I'm going to invest in that and A lot of that can also depend on you Know what the tax implications are like If I have a tax protected account like An IRA I'll trade it every day I don't Care and not that I'll trade in an Hourly format but I might trade more Actively where there's not the same tax Implications when there are tax Implications I might try to you know Have some optimization for short-term Versus long-term gains as an American But uh at the same time like in 2021 for Example I had a really strong thesis About uh

You know the altcoin market doing very Very well after bitcoin's R up from 10 To 30k people remember that the fall of 2020 and I just made the decision I'm Going to roll my portfolio over I'm Going to go for it and I know it's going To be short-term gains and it's going to Be painful but I'm going to go for it so In that scenario like I'll trade much More actively as the market kind of Demands it right now I don't really Think the market does demand that so I Think being a a midterm swing Trader Like multi-week multi-on type of Trades With a portion of your port portfolio And then a a multi-year time frame sense Of things with a larger portion of your Portfolio makes a lot of sense for me at Least interesting and so what do you Look for when evaluating whether you Want to take a trade or not relative Strength as in two an assets peers so if I'm think let's think of that in Bitcoin Terms first like how is Bitcoin uh Performing relative to say the S&P 500 Like if it's not doing and you know if It doesn't have better um Trend movement Than the largest stock index in the World that's not great so like why Bother you know and for a little good Bit of 2022 that was the case you know But if it's if I'm overall bullish on Bitcoin then I might be interested in do How's the ebtc look like do I want to

Take the higher beta trade basically at Any given point so Bitcoins the higher Beta trade of maybe gold or the S&P or Inversely correlated to the dollar you Know things like that and then is eth a Better higher beta trade if I'm bullish On crypto am I more bullish on eth at That given time or do I think that There's a cyclical rotation into a layer One trade you know like the big one in 2021 that everybody talked about was Sol Luna aback like the Blended word of you Know salana Luna and Avalanche and I Didn't participate in all of those but It was a it's a theme right it's a theme That you you might look at and say well I'm going to make that trade or I want To I want to make the defi trade but What um what coins will actually seek For it and so I look for relative Strength within those different sectors Or trends that I may seek but especially Times like now where overall I'm like Okay well yeah I think Bitcoin and Ethereum are going to be higher in the Future so it can denominate in BTC or E And anything I any trade I make if I'm Buying an nft or trading an altcoin or Whatever I want to make more of the Denominator so that's the goal so when You say Higher beta trade what are you referring To yeah so if one thing goes up $1 Another thing goes up $2 or you know if

They're the same basis if Bitcoin goes Up 1% is eth going up 2% if the S&P goes Up half a percent is Bitcoin up 5% Higher higher beta is basically I mean There's more you know there's more Reflexivity there's more uh there there It the down line trade the higher risk Trades are going to have they're going To be more aggressive with the same Trend if you have positive correlation Between Bitcoin and altcoins for example Which we had for almost all of 2021 Bitcoin was almost never the best trade Because there not since 2020 did Bitcoin Just take over so I mentioned fall 2020 Bitcoin took over you know alts stopped Going up eth stopped it was not really Going up and Bitcoin tripled from 10K to 30k that's a inverse correlation but Sometimes it's like okay well one thing Goes up other other thing goes up faster And the high beta trade might be if you Think gold is going to go up and you Think Bitcoin has a positive correlation To gold and therefore Bitcoin will go up Well if bitco if gold goes up 1% the High beta trade is thinking Bitcoin will Go up 5% in the same time frame so There's different ways to think about That you can be all in on bitcoin Instead of gold and earn five times as Much or if you're looking at this purely From like I don't know kind of like Statistical or Quant view you might say

Well we see this positive correlation we Think that positive correlation is true We're going to take 1if of the position Size but we're going to put it in Bitcoin and we're not going to trade Gold at all or you could say we're going To trade 50% gold um with a you know Relatively low movements less downside Risk but we're going to put making the 10% of our portfolio and put it in Bitcoin and that leaves 40% that can be In cash and we have the overall similar You know similar volatility potential And similar upside potential I don't do that but I'm just saying like From a thematic perspective I try to Think about it that way gotcha last Question in the segment how did you Figure out your Edge and what works for You I think my only real Edge is my Ability to experiment and not be like so Fundamentally biased towards one thing Just because so like the maximalist Mentality is not for me um I always am Curious and I always want to learn and I Understand that there may be trade-offs That said I think you have to Value the Things that are very important like Bitcoin's Lindy effects or like the Resistance to change for the sake of Security and reliability things like That are very important that said it Doesn't prevent me from being interested In the ethereum landscape and I I can be

Interested in what salana is building Even if like some of it would make me Nervous to put my entire net worth on so I think my only Edge is this like Willingness to experiment willingness to Cheng my own ideas and at the same time Understand like what do I want to come Back to what do I value the most and not Like not basically just not becoming a Maximalist of something because I made Money on it or because someone you know Evangelized it to me and therefore I Believe it fully and truly and only Interesting well thanks for detailing All of that so going into the last Segment here which is called the next Bull Run just wondering how will you Know if Bitcoin moves into another bull Market what are you looking for that Might give you confidence that it may Have switched into a bull market if Perhaps we have another bull market if We have another bull market is a good Way to phrase that question to encourage Me that we Will you need the doubt and and I know You're not like saying you doubt the a Potential future bull market but you Need people doubting it to really have The ability like I know that sounds Counterintuitive but when you think Something inevitable it almost feels Like that's when it's most that's most When it's most likely to not occur or

Like you know what I'm saying like if You think it's not possible it's Probably most possible at that point and Yeah so from a pure Trend perspective we Are in kind of an isolated bull market Right now if you think of somebody says I just would not buy anything that's not Above its 200 day moving average like it Needs to be trending forward well you Would have bought above 20K and you'd be At 20 25k right now if if you're North Star from a trend perspective like Myself is the 200 we moving average then You'd want it to clear 25k and then hold It like and not use it as some kind of Short-term resistance so I think we'll Be in a bull market with time though and I think that we'll probably have a good Bit of sideways first so I would like to See us clear the 200 week moving average You know at the time of this recording We just happen to be literally right at It so we get above it and we had Essentially establish a new range that We spent some time going sideways in a New Range that's above the lows and give The market time to heal and repair and You know find itself people just expect Too much too quickly like this kind of Eiffel Tower move you know like oh it's Going to go down it's got to go down Like immediately with no breaks uh it's Going to go up it's going to go up Immediately with no time in between when

You consider after the uh 2017 top in my Mind the bull market really didn't start Until that fall of 2020 Because if you just bought at 10K you Got to 60k of you know a 6X you really Got probably a 7x and you didn't have to Buy the bottom to do that and that took A thousand days to get to that point Even though we made the bottom and how Many days was this 370 days basically so It took basically 3 years to properly Break out into full bull new you know Really huge new run and it took one year Bottom so if we just extrapolate that Now like you know we've had a we've had A year of a of a bull market a little More than that or a bare Market uh a Little more than that depending on when You think it started but it wouldn't Surprise me if it takes us you know Three years to repair so if we're not Really like pushing new highs and and You know the whole world starting to Talk about Bitcoin again or whatever People talking about six figure Bitcoin Or seven figure Bitcoin uh that could easily be 2024 and People forget that things take patience And and time a good traditional Market Example of this is actually I think the NASDAQ the 2000 stock bubble and I'm not Sure that I would equate our 2021 run to The stock bubble of the tech bubble of 2000 but the market topped in March 2000

And then it really started tanking in 2001 it did not make a new all-time high Until 2016 16 years Now it bottomed in 200 well really 2002 And then again in 2008 at the end of Those two different recessions but Didn't make a new all-time high for 16 Years so it took a lot of time now the Move from 2016 through uh 20 the end of 2021 was gigantic got a lot of upside if You just bought the alltime high Breakout so there's still tons of Potential even though you had to be very Very patient But most people would have looked in 2011 2012 if you're looking back Technically as like that's okay that's a Breakout there's upside we're probably Not going to go retest these lows again And I think you can you can be confident In any Market in that capacity that if You believe in the market now a stock Index has a lot of advantages because It's always the top companies within That Index right the SNP 500 the 500 Most profitable companies in the world You know the NASDAQ 100 is 100 companies That are curated for that index for a Particular reason um whereas Bitcoin is Bitcoin it's not like the Bitcoin index Of other you know stuff but if you were Say charting like the top 10 market cap Coins you're going to have the 10 best Coins moving into that plus it's a sub

Sector of of the world commodity basket Or whatever else and so it's a little Different there's a little bit different Risk profile but people I a bull market Requires patience because it has to coil Up it has to really Co be ready to Spring when the time is right and if You're trying to rush it if you're Trying to force the trades and all that Kind of stuff I just think you're going To be in for a bad time interesting yeah That was a lot a lot of interesting Thoughts there thank you so if we do Have another Bitcoin bull market how Will you look to try and figure out the Timeline of that Bitcoin bull market I Think you need to look at the having Always I mean I'm sure lot of your Guests are going to say that but when You see fundamental changes in the Market meaning you know the supply of Bitcoin going out every block is half of What it was that's great uh right There's less that's being added the Disinflationary mechanism of Bitcoin and Just knowing that less Bitcoin is going Out all the time is good the other Element of timing is just going to be Around at M we've known each other for a Little while you you know people like Ask you hey should I be buying this they Don't do it until it's like Beyond 50k It's like where were you for the last Like five years you like none of 10K

Wasn't a good price 3K wasn't a good Price 20K 30k 40K none of those were Good prices you're calling me at 50k or 60k why so those buyers that now have Regrets because they were late fomo uh Market participants you got to have time For them to just bleed out like they They're thankful just to get out at Break even or they capitulated because It went so blow after the FTX blow up You know things like that you got to you Got to get those people out of the Market because they are just pressure They're pressure on price and you have You kind of get coins in what you call Strong hands right like that's where That comes from the people who are They're going to hold because they have A philosophical belief in the asset or Because they have a a fundamental belief In the sector's ability to do well or They have a a technical belief that it's Just time and you need that to occur it Takes time it takes patience and I'd be Looking at Mid 2024 for like really a Lot of those things can align and that's Not to say we're going to go to 10K I'm Not trying to say we're like going to Make new lows we had we put a lot of Pressure on the market to go to 15K and I think it Bitcoin was relatively Resilient and I just think we could see Some sideways and time for sat stackers To do their sat stacking you know like

We don't have to get rich in the day we Got a lifetime hopefully gotcha well Thank you so much for all of your input And all of your opinions and and Thoughts and everything I I really Appreciate it yeah it's a pleasure to be With you thanks for tuning in to crypto Trading Secrets presented by coin Telegraph we'll catch you next Time