Killing Bitcoin, Riding To The Moon & Bull Market With Arthur Hayes!

What About um who gives a zero when it Comes to Crypt Bros living their best Lives few do it with such style as Arthur Hayes Arthur was one of the Co-founders of the bitmax exchange and Is nowadays better known as one of the Most articulate outspoken and Opinionated commentators of the industry His trii background gives him a unique Perspective on crypto and the forces That shape it and if you're not Subscribed to his blog well you should Be in between hitting the slopes and Running malstrom his family office Arthur took some time out to give me his Take on the markets and where crypto is At right now in true Arthur style he Doesn't hold back so Enjoy so first of all Arthur I'm curious Because it seems like you are living the Dream a little bit skiing in Japan I Appreciate you taking time out of your Busy schedule for this interview what Does an excellent weekend look like like In Arthur Hayes Tims uh an excellent weekend is a Massive powder dump um on like a Friday Night it's nice and cold you wake up in The morning and you have like you know 30 40 centimeters of fresh snow it's not Too crowded on the resort and then you Go out and just shred lines all day uh It's it's awesome I love it out here

It's some of the best powder in the World that's why I've been coming in SEO For over a decade so that's my you know Perfect weekend I think the season's Been pretty good we've had some pretty Good powder days uh and yeah I'm Enjoying being out in the snow and the Mountains and fresh air and all that Kind of Stuff it's nice to see some movements Some ski videos on crypto Twitter it Jazzes up a little bit we appreciate it Here so let's start with the the macro Outlook and then we'll go into kind of When 100x when Lambo when Mo Moon a Little bit later on the conversation I Know that's what everyone is edging to Hear so let's start because your recent Post y or talking you predicted a mini Financial crisis in March so what are You expecting talk us through what You're anticipating that we could be Seeing so I think it all centers around Commercial real estate in the United States it's a massive asset class um the Biggest Market in the USB New York City I don't know how many you know millions Of square feet of office space are built And if you take a think about what Happened during covid the baby boers Locked the whole world in their houses For the flu and then we discover that oh if I have a certain type of job Meaning I don't work as a delivery

Person or a Uber driver I don't actually Need to be in the office and there's Kind of some great things about not Having to spend 30 minutes to an hour Each way going to work I get to spend More time with my family I don't have to Wear clothes I don't like I can live in A location that fits my my lifestyle Whether that's I want to be outdoors or Maybe the climate's different um Whatever and it's like oh this is really Really great and then they said okay We're done with pretending that this flu Thing is a big deal let everyone go back To the office and people like well hold On a minute like I really liked certain Aspects of of lockdown namely not coming Into the office we have this thing Called the internet and computers why do I need to come back in the office I did My job perfectly well when I wasn't Allowed to come in the office now you're Saying I have to come back in the office So you I'm not coming back right And there's a particular company called Castle in the US and they do scans of Office key cards and there's an index And it shows basically about in the Major Metropolitan markets in the United States 50% of people are back into the Office so that means that office Buildings are utilized 50% less and so In a theoretical perspective that mean Like an office building is only valuable

Because people go into it and so you Think well certainly these things should Be worth a lot less money than what they Were marked at in 2019 and that's the Issue all these Banks um loaded into This this group of like super safe us Commercial real estate because people go To the office they spend spend a lot of Money they have good tenants blah blah Blah in the prime Markets and then half the people decided They don't need to come in the office Anymore and these things are worth less Now is it a 20% decline 30% 40% I don't Really know there's some selected Transactions that are you know down a Lot and the problem is these banks have These loans and they don't want to Recognize these losses because if you Recognize you know a 50% hit on an asset Class that's a few trillion dollars Collectively across many you know us Large and small Banks essentially the US Banking systems ins solvent but again we Don't have a lot of transactions because There's not an incentive to trade people Buying Office Billings are like well Hell hello like half your people don't Come in to work anymore I'm not paying That price the sell is like holy if I mark this down and what it's worth a Lot of other things happen in my Business that I don't want to have Happen which is basically I'm a bankrupt

Company and then I need to either like Talk to The Regulators or do some sort Of disclosures so nobody's trading these Commercial real estate so as we start Seeing you know a bank like New York Community Bank shock the market by Saying guess what we think we have to Provision 10 times more money for the Commercial real estate on our books and It was only two loans it was a $50 Million provision in like I think Q3 and Went up to $500 million in Q4 on two Loans that they had on their books and Then all of a sudden people oh hold on a Second who else has this commercial real Estate problem and the answer is Everybody does now in in the US there's Eight banks that are deed basically Nationalized like a GP Morgan a City Bank a Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Bank Of America these banks are not allowed To fail they're deemed too big to fail They have Deposit Insurance meaning if You put infinite amount of money in Their Bank the government the US Government guarantees the uh the Deposits and so these banks are fine They could have as much commer real Estate as they want because at the end Of the day even if it's worth zero if You walk to the JP Morgan branch and say I want all my money and it's a million Dollars the government will come in and Give GP morg a million dollars to give

Back to you so you're cool so that's not The problem the problem is every other Bank that's not top eight thousands of Other banks that have trillions of US Dollars worth of commercial real estate And they're all like oh if the Market ever figures out that you know we Don't these assets aren't worth what we Say they're worth then if I don't have An insured deposit then I'm going to Move my money out of May and so that's The fear is that if people start to Realize like well how much commercial Real estate does my shitty little Bank Have maybe I should take my money out And give it to JP Morgan and so what You're going to have is a sucking of Assets from the small banks in the US to The large banks in the US and at a Certain point that becomes a problem Because the government US Government Hasn't said that they've guaranteed all These deposits and so you could have This multi-trillion dollar banking Crisis now that's all well and good We're not there yet the question is okay Is New York Community Bank you know Selling I don't know 60 something Percent um in the last week and a half Are they the first or the last um I Think they're going to be allowed to Fail I think that this if once they're Allowed to fail and maybe that happens In a week or three weeks or whatever it

Is then the crisis spreads to larger Banks and at a certain point it gets Politically unpalatable for the FED to Allow a very substantial non- too big to Fail Bank to fail and at that point they Start printing money again and so I Think that coincide sometime in the March time frame for whatever reason Financial crisis we like to have them in You know January to March and October to November um this fits for the timing or One year after you know the first scare Which is the US Treasury Market and the US government came in and did they Guaranteed every US Treasury and Mortgage back security held in any us or Branch of you us branch bank and that's You know4 trillion dollish kind of Potential money printing exercise so we Know the response so if we believe that Commercial real estate is going to be Recognized as a problem investors are Going to flee these stocks for safety Because why would you want to be in a Bank that could be bailed out or not Could be bailed out just might as well Just get the out of it and save Yourself the hassle then we could have a Banking crisis which then will prompt You know the FED to print more money and Then everybody goes and buys Lambos Because crypto goes nuts right that's Kind of the thesis but we need to have a Little crisis

First well that was the next million SATs question of how then so people like You and me people that are in crypto how Are you expecting that to imp at the Crypto markets how is the crypto Market Going to fair and play out over the next 12 to 18 months what is your Approach well I think at the end of the Day we know that they're going to print Money to save the banking system we just Don't know when it's going to happen and Then what the program is going to look They're not going to call it Quantitative easing or not going to call The thing that they called it before Because that's politically not suitable They'll come up with a new Alphabet Letter name for it and you know people Like me and others oh actually guess What guys like if you really look at it How it works it's printing money and I Think Bitcoin is very attuned to that we Saw the price go from like 48 to 38,000 I know I was calling for lower Didn't happen you know we broken above 50 so we're hovering around there right Now I think that after hundreds of years Of central banks bailing out indebted Financial institutions and the first too Big to fail bailout was the bank of England in 1773 with the East India Company when they were over indebted and Everyone owned their stock and said oh we're going to go bankrupt uh

Please lend us money and because all the Bankers own the stock they took the Public money and gave it to the East India Company bailed them out so that Was the first major bailout we've done And every single time there's been a Crisis there's been a bailout Bitcoin Knows this we're so attuned to this that We know that if New York Community Bank Is the harbinger for future bank Failures then we know the response is Printed money so we're not going to fall On that news which would be you know Financial crisis we love financial Crisis because financial crisis means More Fiat more debasement more inflation And this is the whole point of crypto And defi is to build a parallel Financial system which does not is not Affected by that sort of debasement and Therefore prices actually go up so the More stress that we see in the US Financial system the more that Bitcoin Is going to preempt the move of money Printing and also I think Tech and AI Stocks are in the same boat as well Anything that doesn't need a bank loves Financial crisis tech companies don't Need Banks they have essentially Infinite profit margins once they've Created really good software and they Don't need to finance their cacks Through the banking system they love Printed money crypto is the anti anthus

To the try system when printed money Happens and you debase you know the Value of time in human labor we rejoice And we say great you we're GNA take Bitcoin to a million right so I think These are the two sectors that will even If there is a financial crisis will be Very well owned and will probably Preempt the eventual money printing Response I was trapped inside a cage a Cage made out of The Daily Grind I was So unfulfilled I felt like a blank sheet Of A4 paper something was missing from My life but I didn't know what but then I found what I'd been missing the coin Bureau deals page was the answer to my Prayers it had everything I needed to Make me complain Exchange sign up Bonuses of up to $50,000 the biggest discount on the best Hardware wallets trading fee discounts Of up to 60% on the best crypto Exchanges exclusive altcoin Alpha thank You coin Bureau for bringing me back to Life so it sounds like from speaking to You now that the next bull market could Possibly come from the rep the Repercussions of what we see in Across America now is that the case or are you Expecting the bull market to also come From other factors there's also the Happening and you know people have a lot Of theories about how that affects Mining Supply um but I think and there's

Also sort of like does crypto fit in With AI I know I've been out there Pushing that sort of narrative like an AI needs to use decentralized money and Decentralized compute power Decentralized Storage Solutions if They're really to be a pure economic Actor that's sits outside of you know How we humans do things so that's a Potential Vector as well and then yes I Think that we're going to print the most Amount of money ever in human history in The next you know two to four years Because we have a lot of elections Coming up and you know how do you get Reelected you give people free that They don't pay for in an obvious fashion They always pay for it inflation or Taxes choose One uh and then we have a lot of Wars Wars are very inflationary everybody Around the world's increasing the Defense budget to you know throw bombs At each other uh and you know then we Have the money printing toay pay for the War right so it's all building itself Into a super cycle of technology and Money printing that I think is going to Make this particular cryptol Market the Biggest one that we've seen in terms of Gains of of trillion dollars of market Cap that is you know all of a sudden Going to be present in our little Ecosystem so we've touched on the US but

Also we've got China as well this is Another Powerhouse economy that we have To touch on is China screw at the moment When it comes to the economy essentially Potentially having to print more Stimulus and are they even in a position To do that to get the economy moving Again so I think a lot of one thing that People get wrong about China is because It has a closed Financial capital Account they're not actually going to Experience a a western style financial Crisis like a 2008 or 1930s right Because the financial system mostly is Owned by the government so it's Essentially a choice it's a political Fight between Fashions and the Chinese Government of who who takes the loss Right we inflated this thing called the Property Market you know we built a lot Of stuff for people we've taken a lot of People a lot of property but we may we Overdid it a lot there's a loss there There's a bunch of stuff that was built That's not being used and it will never Be used given the demographic situation Of of China as it is today so which arm Of the Communist Party takes the loss For this is it the banking system is it The central bank is it the central Government is it local governments so This is what you're seeing is this patch Solution of how is Xi Jin ping going to You know deal with all these political

Factions nobody wants to take the loss For the the property market so is China Screwed no you know the most likely Outcome is China becomes you know Japan Likee 20year Nothingness um but you know Communist Party probably Survives Chinese cities will have nice Restaurants it's going to be all bad Probably not but is there going to be This explosive 8% GDP growth every year No because they can't tolerate the Amount of credit that it would take to Create that because they know that if we Overstimulate then we have real Pressures on the currency so yes I do Think Chinese Semus is coming the PBC Has already printed hundreds of billions Of dollars and tried to loan it out to People to revive the property sector I Think they're going to go much bigger in Terms of their stimulus but only after The Federal Reserve starts cutting rates Because what they don't want to have Happen is China goes nuts on stimulus And that puts pressure on the REM andb To weaken to the point where it can Encourages Capital flight which isn't Good for the Communist party so let the FED ease and then the Chinese government Can ease along with the fed and then They can keep the r and be stable on a Relative basis versus the dollar so yes They are stimulating it's waking its way

Into the markets the big bazooka is Coming out but only after the FED starts Cutting rates and printing more money And in 20 years from now China's economy Is not going to look like the economy That we kind of know from grow it could Be worse it could be better who knows Doesn't really Matter okay so what about Hong Kong Because Hong Kong is opening up to Crypto a little bit are you expecting Hong Kong to be one of those come ups That is a little bit more appealing than The rest I think Hong Kong is going to Be competing with New York to get crypto Funds but obviously they're not going to Compete with Western fund managers who By and large are shunning anything China Related because they view it as Uninvestable for a political Uh reasons but Hong Kong is the conduit For Mainland Chinese Capital to go into A semi it's not a free market but it's Freer than the Chinese Capital markets And so I think that if they face the Issue where Chinese people like oh There's going to be all this money Printing we need to get into an asset That that protects it rather than them Actually owning Bitcoin there'll be a Conduit for them to invest in you know Spot ETFs in listed in Hong Kong that Are run by Chinese managers which are Owned by the Chinese government so the

People think that they're escaping the Financial ruin of a Fiat de basement but They're actually just handed their money To a government proxy and the money Stays in the system and it's the same Thing in the US which with the black Rock ETF that is a proxy for the US Government if the US government ever Needs to go and confiscate all that Bitcoin or change the rules and Sequester it and make sure you can never Take it out stroke up a pen there you go And you know there's no more Bitcoin That's accessible in those uh investment Products so same product same aim Different packaging different marketing We have to dive into the spot Bitcoin ETF a little first of all how many times Do you think you've said the word spot Bitcoin ETF so far this year because I Know we've been people have been Quizzing you on it a lot it's great I Mean I think it's a great thing that We've created this new Financial system And for how 15 years it was ignored the Winkle VI twins file filed their first ETF application in 2013 yeah I don't Even know if they got one in the end 10 Years later Larry Fink files his in June Of 2023 six months later he gets an ETF Right and so that tells you all you need To know about what this ETF is and who Is um behind it is it a Crypton native Thing to help you know expand the

Financial freedom of the world Absolutely not is it a way to sequester Fiat dollars that want to earn a return In Fiat using what they think is new Technology absolutely it's a trading Product And makes fees for Black Rock and Fidelity and all the other major asset Managers who've scooped up I mean you Probably know the numbers better than me However many billions in a over the last Four weeks or so yeah so it's been the Most successful ETF launch in capital Markets history that's also tell you Like what is the problem that it's Trying supposedly trying to solve which Is you know a global race to how much Money can be print it's not an American Issue it's not a China issue it's a Everybody's doing the same thing at the Same time and this is is just one way For the authorities to try to control Where that Fiat goes because if you Actually buy real Bitcoin then get out Of it's out of their purview but if you Buy a black rock or a China AMC ETF Perfectly within their you know view to See what's going on who owns what and Make sure that you know when the time Comes that money is subject to taxation Via inflation as well is there a risk That we're killing Bitcoin with the Surge of traffic for spot Bitcoin ETFs Institutional demand coming through is

Bitcoin still the money of the People I think so and again I don't Think the response if you're afraid of Black Rock and some of these other Managers is to say we need to B ban them From owning Bitcoin that's not how Bitcoin works it's a permissionless System anyone who wants to own it for Any purpose is allowed to do so uh if we Want to maintain the progress of you Know super hard crypto Money then we're going to have to become Active the best part about owning Bitcoin and why the community is so Strong is because people care about and They do things now black rock is a Apathetic money manager they don't do Anything they collect assets and charge A fee and sit on them they're passive so They're not going to do good things and They're not going to do bad things but They're not going to have Bitcoin move Out of their custody unless maybe There's some Bond or something they buy I I doubt it but that Bitcoin is just Going to sit there so the more Bitcoin They accumulate the more Bitcoin is Never going to move and never going to Do anything obviously the large whales In Bitcoin they're not spending money All the time but if you take a look at What the Investments of people like Roger ver and the winkl and some of the Other large Bitcoin holders were doing

Back 10 years ago they were investing in Companies giving people Bitcoin to build Services to create an ecosystem that Made the Bitcoin that they still retain More valuable is black going to do that Absolutely not they're going to sit on The Bitcoin and charge a management fee So it's the same problem with capital Markets where pass passive index Investing is Killing um price Discovery because you Invest in a company you invest in an Index and the index invests in the Highest valued stock whether or not that Stock earns its rate of return similar Things could happen with Bitcoin it's up To us to actually do stuff with the Network and things like ordinals where People are you know bringing jpegs to to Bitcoin I think it's a great thing I Know some people think it's trash that's On the blockchain but at least we're Using it if you know if ordinals are the Only thing that keeps people using Bitcoin and spending Bitcoin that's the Best thing because now we have the the Miners have income in Bitcoin for people Using the network that they're there to Upkeep versus Black Rock and other asset Managers all they want to do is sit on Assets and charge a fee yeah is there a Size in which you're like okay if black Rocks spot Bitcoin ETF gets this big Then there is a risk to the Bitcoin

Network if it's too big it could I Haven't I haven't I'm sure sure somebody Could tease that out if there's a Particular S I have no idea okay so Let's take a little look now so I want To ask in your experience when it comes To the most kind of middlefinger You to the trafi system what has that Been in crypto's Journey was it the Inception of Bitcoin has it been Something along the way you've obviously Had a lot of wise since you've been in Crypto and you are kind of a vigilante In the space what has been the biggest Kind of Cube to the traditional System I would say all the dog money Coins the dogecoins the Shibu enu uh dog With hat like literally if you take the Collective dog money ecosystem it's Probably market cap of I don't Know close to100 billion dollars like These things are literally like so Stupid and hilarious at the same time And they're worth all this money and They trade you know hundreds of millions Of dollars a day of trading volume it's PBC people who've taken their shitty Fiat paper money and said I'm gonna Buy this dog picture on the Internet and this dog picture is going To be worth a lot of money and some People have made generational wealth Buying and holding dog money Like it's hilarious I think that it just

Shows the worthlessness of this thing Called Fiat money and the extreme that What was a great invention at the time Probably back a few hundred years ago When government started using paper Money has now become this um perversion Where everyone is just racing to print Print as much of it as possible and Degrade the value of human Labor uh in The countries in which it's printed I Spent about two hours yesterday trying To find a dog with Bobble hat for this Interview for this exact purpose and I Used to be a tradire reporter so we're In a parody in ourselves we all we all Love it um okay now I want to turn to Ask you about FTX and it looks like it's On a path to pay out all of its users Have you expected this outcome what is Your outlook um on this Situation so obviously FTX is just like Any other company which becomes very Illiquid goes insolvent and then when Everyone recognizes insolvent goes to Bankruptcy and usually a lot of the Times the bets were correct it's just That they were overleveraged now in Sam's case I just stole a bunch of money uh and then bought Whatever you know whatever they bought Some of which have gone up in value in Terms of tokens or anthropic or some of These things but again it was a Liquidity crisis and what sparked the

Liquidity crisis when you raise the cost Of money the price of money what did the Fed and every other Central Bank due From 2021 until 2022 until um today is They raised the price of money and we See FTX we saw teruna um we've saw Banks Fail like all these over levered Institutions whether they're crypto or Trafi if you use too much leverage but The leverage was using to buy illiquid Assets then you at risk of going Bankrupt and that's exactly what Happened with FTX and the certain claims that exchange That has closed up shop as well what's Your take on that have you expected and Think that's the reason that we are Seeing them move away I mean Kyle and Sue and Mark Lamb are all a bunch of Muppets so even if FDX didn't Pay if they didn't payback uses I knew That exchange was trouble from the start Anyways okay so now let's move on into 2024 the when Lambo Series right into The Moon Trading some shitcoins we got To talk about it so first of all what is Some of the let's say tokens that you're Most excited about this year maybe from Let's start with like a trading Perspective if there's any that you're Like okay you mentioned dog with hat is Like this is just a parody in itself What kind of things are you looking at As potential narratives in the space for

2024 so obviously the salana ecosystem Is super vibrant super Vocal having a lot of fun trading and You know the coin's gone from I think $7 At the FTX lows and now it's 110 or Whatever it is I think there's a lot of Energy there I ultimately think salana Is a dog shap blockchain doesn't matter But people like to trade it people are Vocal about it people hate it and love It and you want you want energy you want POS that's what you're trading you're Trading the human emotion as evidence in The chart and so I love salana as a Trading vehicle the great thing about Crypto is because it's such a free Market that's devoid of all the Central Bank actually trades pretty technical And it trades very on a human Psychological level big numbers like 100 Mean something or 200 or 250 right that You know and in an abstract way mean Nothing at all but it's a bunch of Humans trading against each other and Without any manipulation they're going To Veer on these particular points so I Love trading things like this so I think As my favorite trading shitcoin Definitely really salana I'll be go Trading it up and down sideways whatever Throughout the whole cycle so you trade On salana but you wouldn't necessarily Build on salana 11 outage was a little

Sus yeah Exactly uh is this still a time and an Opportunity to accumulate crypto because I think people that are watching from The sidelines will always wonder if they Have got in that little bit too late Markets right now pumping we've seen Hovering around 50k for Bitcoin this Week are we reaching the the peak of This bull market or in your eyes are Things just just starting just heating Up I think we're just starting the real Bull market starts once Bitcoin Surpasses 70,000 and essentially the Whole crypto market cap and aggregate Passes what it reached in 2021 I don't Know how many trillions that was that's When things start getting silly that's When you start seeing all the Celebrities all the influencers start Pedaling whatever piece of dog that They're getting an allocation on that's When we know things are really heating Up is it too late well again it all Depends on what is your investment Horizon what do you want to do with this Money is it I want to make a THX in the Next week maybe it's too late you're Probably going to lose all your money if That's how you think is that I want to Beat the you know inflation in Fiat de Basement starting today great there's Bitcoin there's ethereum there's others Mega cap cryptos maybe they're not going

To go up the most because of the law of Large numbers and diminishing returns From now until the top of the M Market But at least you'll beat inflation You'll have one of the best performing Assets you know versus stocks bonds real Estate that you could own again I think It all depends on what it is you're Trying to do and there is no like Easy Button obviously everyone on crypto Twitter and Tik Tok and Instagram wants To say like yeah I started driving to Lambo one week after I started trading Maybe you should join my paid group like Don't do that that's how you lose all Your money very very quickly anyone Who's good at trading spends all day Trading and it's a full-time job there Is no path there's no shortcut to to This so I think if you're thinking in Your mind I need to make a THX on the Next crypto I buy in the shortest Possible amount of time you know put Down your treasure or your Ledger or you Know your metamask and go outside and go For a walk don't trade crypto because You're lose money crypto Bros and gals Going and getting fresh air that just That ain't gonna Happen so maybe a crypto up because I think this is always something you've Been in the space for a very long time You are a crypto OG everyone can make Crypto mistakes and I think people can

Watch shows like this and say you know What like I want this lifestyle I want To trade I want to get rich quick but It's not that easy for everyone watching It is not that easy what has been some Of your life lessons along the way maybe Something that you can sh I always tell People in crypto everybody's trying to you don't trust anyone and I think If you go into it with that mindset Where okay someone tells you something You're not going to call them a lie Li To their face say oh thank you very much And then you go back and you verify that Statement on your own don't take Anyone's word for anything no matter who They are or where you what program you Saw them on or you know vitalic loves Them or you know they claim they roshi Whatever it doesn't matter do your own Research and you'll save yourself a lot Of issues and if you feel like in the Pit of yourself that doesn't really feel Right I don't know why just don't do it There's no one who's forcing you to Click that last confirm on meta ask um Who's forcing you to put your password In to a site that you don't recognize Who's forcing you to click on an email Fishing link right that is something That you know you just have to listen to Yourself and I think that most people Have the common sense to know when Something just doesn't really feel right

If you don't understand something don't Do it that's how you avoid most of the Mistakes in crypto and most of the People trying to scam you and steal your Money excellent words of wisdom there so If we go back there was one of your Recent posts points guard which was Amazing by the way and you'd written That EOS was an example of a Ico craze That work because it raised a lot of Money around four billion but it was a Complete piece of blockchain that Barely worked do we have any 2024 eos's Anything that you're like not yet not Yet okay it's EOS and blockco guys are Absolute Geniuses for how they pulled This off and how much money they Extracted from the community doing this Uh this Ico sale that they did there Will be something this cycle I don't Know what it is I think it's going to There's gonna be some point scheme Something and it's G to be massive maybe It's gonna have some sort of AI tint to It it's gonna be some economic game that They're playing with your mind and Everybody's want to going to want to Participate and the amount of money that They raise is going to be stupendous What they claim they're going to do with The money is going to be stupendous as Well right they're going to have some Massive Vision about what they're going To do with this money maybe it's you

Know Sam Elman said he's going to raise $7 trillion do to build some specialized Semiconductive fat for AI maybe there's Going to be a crypto analogous thing We're going to raise a trillion dollars To do something in AI to compete with Open Ai and you know Microsoft and Google and whatever it is right Something big it's got to be a big Vision we have this new way of Potentially you know raising funds uh The point system and any derivatives That people create I think we'll start To see something like that probably in 2025 and once we know what the Narratives our people care about the new Way of fundraising that people are Getting behind and then you combine Those two together and then you get an EO style complete piece of dog that People will raise money and they'll Raise maybe maybe this time will be Hundreds of billions of dollars I don't Know it's going to be Insane and how can people detect the so you've mentioned that he's Kind like don't trust verify you've got To do your own research but is there Also a way that you can be like okay These kind of buzzword these are noos These are things that says little waving Of a red flag over here in the corner I Think you get that sort of perspective If you start reading white papers of

Very successful projects like read the Bcoin white paper read the ethereum White paper um and see the type of Things that they're doing and that They're not doing and usually the Projects that are the most scammy claim To do some amazing things that very well Respect Ive cryptographers and Engineers Have not been doing and maybe they Haven't been doing they either haven't Been doing them because they can't or There's a very good reason why they Don't do them and obviously that's up to You to determine um the difference Between the two but when you see a very Heavily marketed Slick um founding team out there Pro Promoting something and having some Audacious goals in crypto your lights Have you know alarm Bells have to go up Like Engineers aren't that good at Marketing uh and so there's a reason why The EOS people had some very famous People flying around the world giving You know talks to villagers to buy some EOS right because it was a Marketing game so when you detect that You're being marketed too too heavily Like huh that doesn't really seem right Like good Tech can be well marketed but It usually isn't the best marketing that I've ever seen and that should give you A bit of Pause so inverse the marketing strategy

Because the real true Tech Developers Normally the uxui is a little a little Sus okay that uxui just it's it's is how People are promoting it to you what They're claiming they can do what are The channels um that they're going Through to get this Money and yeah again if it seems too Good to be true it almost certainly is Now I listened to your recent podcast Episode with Laura shin and you said That Bitcoin is the only real crypto Money ethereum is the decentralized Computer so I was curious to pick your Brains and see if we could finish a few More of these es so what would you say Chain link Is a pseudo price thing in a Jig it's not Decentralized it's not decentralized It's not all that fast you know there's Issues with data reliability but maybe I Mean I'm not a uh a link Marine I'm not Really super I haven't really followed The protocol for that long yeah so That's why I call the you know data Thing magic because I don't really know What it is The data thing magic what about Cadano um who gives a Zero a bunch of um wannabe ethereum the First wannabe ethereum and prob maybe The first one to go to be Relevant dog with

Hat best dog money of this bull Cycle best dog money of this bull Cycle excellent So Pepe is obsolete now Pepe is so 2022 Well Pepe rare Pepe are rare Pepe They're they're original you know crypto Art I love my rare Pepe um I think we're going to see Research inste of of nft trading volumes Some of these early projects you know Will get P get back through the floor Prices that they experienced in 2021 but I don't think rare Pepe are Trying to be you know super funny dog With hat um dog money memes they're Memes in of themselves traded cards and Whatnot but I wouldn't put rare Pepes And dog money in the same category Because dog Mone is way more liquid like Than Nakamoto Pepe right there's only 300 of them they're held by random People you kind of have to like the art Versus dog with money is huh well it's Really funny and you know you Goldman Sachs I'm gonna buy this dog With hat maybe put it on the the bow Downtown in New York City because it's Funny versus I need to find a specific Person who likes this Pepe that I kind Of liked in the the past and will to pay Me a lot of money for it it's a lot Harder to Trade got it now so I would love to just Recap with an exit strategy for retail

Investors because we've talked about you Know your view on the macro look what That could impact on crypto prices we've Talked about some of the individual Tokens but at the end of the day this is A numbers game and you are in crypto to Make money everyone is in crypto to if You end up holding your bags for a whole Bull cycle you've kind of wasted your Time and you've got another three or Four years wait what would you advise For a retail investor their first or Second crypto cycle how should they exit And take some profits throughout what Kind of price points what kind of Indicators what would you expect so the First thing is you need to set a goal For yourself is it I want to trade or Purchase a crypto and buy my own house And this is how much the house is going To cost this is where it's going to be Right when you get to your goal sell Your crypto and buy your buy that asset Right you've you've done what you need To do the last thing you need to do is Change your once you've reached the goal Change the goal get more extravagant and Then all a I'm going to take more Leverage going to trade bigger and That's when you run into problems right Because you're never going to pick the Bottoms or call the tops but if you've Established a trading and investment Plan stick with it unless there's some

Uh event that is forcing you to change It want to buy a house you made enough Money to buy the house buy the house you Wanted to buy the car or whatever it is That you wanted to buy set a goal so Don't just say I'm just going to trade Crypto so for me personally what's my Goal I like skiing all day I like a Particular lifestyle I don't want to Have to go into an office over again Okay I'm going to make sure that how I Trade my crypto gives me you know Passive income that's why I have a lot Of um Dex derivative Dex Holdings that Pay uh staking fees right they're not Necessarily going to be the things that Go up a THX but they're not necessarily Think they're going to go to zero Because nobody uses them right because I Have my trading plan my goal where am I Trying to get out of this I want control Of my time this is how much my time Costs make sure that I can meet those Goals so I think you're never going to Be able to time the market perfectly There's never it's not going to be the Same thing that happened in 21 that's Going to happen in 26 27 is when I think That the Market's going to top out but You can control your plan you can Control when you take money off the Table to purchase that asset or you need To have a particular type of income Stream to quit your job you achieved

That okay put your money into what have You perceived as either a safer crypto Uh a safer investment vehicle whatever It is and do that so I think make sure You have a plan when you start and then When you get to the goal Cash Out stick To the plan don't get Greedy exactly and finally exact it's Important it is because I remember 2017 Everyone was all eyes on bitcoin at $10,000 and it just skyrocketed past 217 But none of us took profits because as Soon as it hit 15 we thought 20K was Incoming right here um so it happens to Everyone now here at coin buer everyone Is big fans of you and your work so one Final question for myself and the rest Of the coin beer team when book can we Expect a Book no books are hard I actually really Like the essay format because I get to When I have a feeling about something I Want to write I guess write it I have no Word count I'm not trying to sell Anything a book I need to have a Constant concept I GNA get an editor It's you know if I'm GNA put out a book I want it to be very very good and I Don't really have a a centralizing theme That I want to write something about and Writing a book takes a long time so by The time you write it if it's about some Sort of current event that current event Probably already happened right so I

Don't know I don't know what I want to Write about if I wrote a book maybe It'll happen at some point in the future But I really like the the essay Contemporaneous you know word salads That I put out there uh on my blog as a Way to express myself and give myself Confidence in the trading positions that I already have on before I wrote It and also I can never call what your Next essay is going to be called so I Don't even know how you would start by a Titling the book to be honest that would Be a multimon task in Itself amazing Arthur thank you so much For your time it was an absolute Pleasure to to pick your brains and I Really appreciate it thank you thank you This has been Great that's all for today's video if You learn something new let us know by Smashing that like button if you want to Keep learning then subscribe to the Channel and ping that notification Bell So you don't miss the next one if you Want to help others learn take a second To share this video with them and if You're inspired by Arthur to start your Investing Journey then check out the Coin Bureau deals page the link will be In the description thank you all so much For watching and I'll see you in the Next one this is Jessica signing [Music]

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