Jobs Report

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the macroverse today we're going to Talk about the most recent jobs report If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and check out intothe Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse tocom now we actually had a Lot of of job reports come in this week To just take a quick look on Wednesday We had ADP employment we also had us job Openings I know it's not you know it's Not necessarily directly related but we Also had the ISM Manufacturing which did Have some insight into the labor market On Thursday we had initial claims and Continued claims and and then on Friday Today we had non-farm payroll the Unemployment rate hourly wages um and Hourly wages year-over-year so quite a Lot happened um over the last over the Last few days in terms of the labor Market now a lot of people here might Might not enjoy listening to videos on The labor market and and perhaps they've Already tuned out but I I will say that The labor market is important in Understanding future monetary policy Okay so if you think back to 2019 and 2020 so I started my channel in 2019 and 2020 I was very bullish on the Altcoin market right but ever since q1 Of 2022 when we when we went back to

Tighter monetary policy I I've been you Know not interested in the altcoin Market and before we really get into the Jobs data I do know there's there's a Lot of people here that are interested In the altcoin market who are we kidding That's basically the only thing people Are interested in um but you should note That last cycle if you go look at the Bitcoin dominance you like how I snuck It in if you go look at the Bitcoin Dominance last cycle you can see that it Really topped out I mean it it it had a Parabolic rally later where it sort of Swept this high but it it topped out in September of 2019 now you a lot of People I think were hoping that do the Dominance would have already topped out Because over here it topped out in September 2019 so you could Theoretically equate that to September Of 2023 but I think the the bigger thing To look at is is interest rates right And and you can see that the dominance Did not really top out until after the FED started cutting rates right so this Orange line is the Fed funds rate and You'll see pretty clearly right pretty Clearly That dominance did not top until September whereas the FED started Cutting you know one to two months Before that so altcoins still bled to Bitcoin

Right they still bled to Bitcoin until the FED went back to Looser monetary policy right so if you Go look at any of my videos in 2019 and 2020 and 2021 I was I was pretty bullish On on the altcoin market especially even Against Bitcoin even against Bitcoin but You'll know that I started my channel in The summer of 2019 that wasn't a Coincidence we had gone back to Boer Monetary policy and I thought it Represented an opportunity to to take on A a certain risk and and and just wait To see what happens Right and the point is to say that even Once alt it's bottom out against Bitcoin They can still go down on their USD Pairs it's just about are they worth the Risk or not right and as long as you're In a period where interest rates are Going up up and at elevated levels the Expectation in my opinion right in my Opinion and again this this opinion is Debated by many but in my opinion the Dominance of Bitcoin should go up and While it has been debated almost every Single month for the last two years the Dominance has just continued to slowly Climb as monetary policy has become Increasingly restrictive right so if you Think the labor market doesn't matter You should understand that the labor Market is more or less key to Identifying when the FED will take us

Back to looser monetary policy and once We get back to looser monetary policy Then from that point altcoins Collectively might actually bottom out Against Bitcoin okay so that is the Reason why we follow the labor market It's not because I have some Fascination By you know what the you know is it 3.8% Unemployment or 3.9 right I don't really I mean at the end of the day that's just A number and you know it's 0.1% doesn't Really make a huge difference but it's Important to recognize because these Overarching Trends in the labor market Will dictate monetary policy and Monetary policy dictates whether your Altcoin is going up so to go through Some of the different things from this Past week let's just sort of go in order We have ADP employment So we'll start with that so ADP is the Automatic data processing Research Institute we had another data point come Out you can see that 113,000 jobs were added according to to To the ADP to this survey all right now That doesn't necessarily mean anything In and of it in and of itself but if we Look at a month over Monon percentage Change and zoom In to basically let's say starting from January 2021 through today the month Over Monon percentage change has been Slowly going down in fact we are at

Levels the last couple of months the ADP Has been pry printing pretty low levels Lower than we've seen right for a long Time often times what I like to do well Let's first go look at the Year-over-year change Right so when you look at a Year-over-year change year-over-year Percentage change you can see that it Topped out pretty high at like 6% but it's been dropping you know and And by March 2023 it hit 2.42% it went up slightly in the summer And ever since the stock market really Started to roll over back in the summer Which was a correction that we said was A likely correction that was going to Happen the this year-over-year Percentage change has been dropping Right so now it's down to 2.13% now unfortunately we don't have Data on here going back to Prior Recessions other than the financial CR Or other than the pandemic and and that One of course you know dropped a lot Quicker than likely anything we would See this business cycle right normally It's a much slower bleed that ends up in In recession okay but that is where it Currently is today is you know is is Around 2% year over-year percentage Change so it is still going up right it Is still going up you could look at a Quarter over quarter percentage change

And see that it's starting to to get Pretty low right it's starting to get Pretty low but it is still technically Going up and in a recession you would You would probably start to expect Negative prints right you would expect Negative prints we're still not seeing That right so again while it's true that The economy is slowing down it's not It's not necessarily true that these Numbers are printing recessionary Territory just yet right and again it it Doesn't any if you're thinking about how This relates to markets remember markets Often Bottom you know in a recession or around The time that a recession is declared And that's because they're Forward-looking so you know if you're Waiting for a recession to be declared To sort of figure out which way the Market's going to go the market probably Already went there right because as as Soon as you know about it through the Headlines um market price did long Ago so the ADP is still technically up Year-over-year Month over Monon percentage changes are Getting pretty low though so you know is Long as that happens right the the the Future year-over-year comps right They're going to start to look even Worse because the rate is starting to

Drop so unless it picks up then that Year-over-year percentage change is Likely going to keep dropping okay now This is is total private we can break it Down into other sectors right we could Go look at manufacturing I think that's An important sector to look at it only Added 3,000 jobs according to this Survey right this does not really look That great I mean it looks like it Topped out in February of 2023 and it Dropped and then now it's sort of Leveling out but a year-over-year Percentage change of this sector Certainly looks like it's getting into Some recessionary territory now you Could argue that so did 2016 and yes This is why I said I've said many times That 2015 2016 we had a recession scare There were worries in the market back Then that the US was heading into a Recession but the US avoided a recession But you can look at these charts and Figure out why people were worried and I Mean there were there were pretty big Drop offs in the S&P 500 going into that Okay so this is getting into some pretty Negative territory here year-over-year And unless this picks back up it's Probably going going to continue to get Worse okay this is the manufacturing Sector and we could look at at other Sectors as well there's Financial Activities which have seen a move to the

Upside recently right so I want to try To show you different sectors some are Are looking better than others Financial Uh Financial activities is is off about 21,000 whereas manufacturing is down um Professional and business services is Down 10,000 so that's really starting to Show some weakness here looking at a Year-over-year percent it's changed you Can see that it's recently gone negative Okay which it never even went negative In in 2015 2016 So a lot of a lot of things changing and Some sectors look better than others Leisure and Hospitality I imagine is is Up it is by 177,000 but you could argue That it it's potentially starting to top Right I mean the growth is slowing look At a month over month percentage change Right the growth is really starting to Slow here and um and you know if if this Continues right if if if 5 a half% for The FED funds rate if it's if that's Sufficiently restricted to slow the Economy down then this will likely Continue to get worse right so that's The ADP that's the ADP and that came in on on at 8:15 a.m. On on on Wednesday we also have job Openings so job openings is is useful Because there have been a lot of layoffs Over the last year um but we haven't Really seen it reflected that much yet In the unemployment rate and one of the

Reasons for that is because job openings While they have come down considerably Over the last year just look at a Year-over-year percentage change Right negative it's been negative for a While this is jobs let's look at a Percentage change right it's been Printing negative really since you know Since August of 2022 it hasn't gone Positive ever since then right but it Was coming from a a pretty high level There was a lot of excess a lot of Excess in the economy and so if you Think about drawing an imaginary line Through Here you can see that this correction by Job openings has more or less just Gotten us back to Trend gotten us back To Prior Trend right so we actually Added 56,000 job openings um really we We lost job openings I believe compared To last time but the reason it's showing It as positive is because they revised The prior number so the prior number as It stood I believe we're down from that But because they revised it we're Technically up so now we can say we Added jobs this month just like we said It last month but note that the last Month was revised to the Downside So we can this is total nonfarm but we Can also break this down as well I like To look at the manufacturing sector to

See kind of what's going on there and You can see that it's popped up a little Bit over the last couple of months now The question is is this this a new trend Or is it just something like what we saw Over here in October of 2022 right in October of 2022 we saw this thing pop up Into November and then it just rolled over Right so is it doing the same thing Where it's sort of popping up here Starting in July and will it will it Will it eventually just roll over sort Of going below the prior Trend so right Now you can still argue that it's still Holding the prior Trend therefore it's Not recessionary territory just yet if We go below the prior TR then I think You argue that we're in recession Territory you could look at total Government I imagine jobs were added There they were not it looks like so uh Job openings government actually lost 81,000 um so that's interesting but Again you know government jobs have been Part of the reason why job openings have Remained relatively elevated for as long As they have um just because of of how Many jobs have been added just over the Last several months we could take a look At at durable goods uh that's one that I I typically check in on it's popped up a Little bit here recently so we'll want To see if this continues or not and we

Can look at maybe just maybe one or two Others professional and business Services dropped a little bit this last Month and and maybe one last one we will Look at leisure and Hospitality pretty big move up right Added 181,000 job openings okay so all In all job Openings had a pretty good month right I Mean at this point I think if it's going Sideways that's classified as pretty Good considering that the overall trend Has been mostly just lower highs and Lower lows right I mean look at this Like just one a high a low a lower high A lower low right a lower high lower low Lower high lower low Etc so does this Just end up being a lower high stay Tuned to find out okay so that gets you Through two of the reports more or less Uh we did get the ISM Manufacturing data And and there was at least a little a Little bit of of weakness in in in some Of the labor components so do note that But I'm not going to spend any more time On it because I spoke about it in the Other video when we talked about the Fomc so the FED did H did have the fomc On on um on Wednesday and they kept Rates at 5 a half% which is interesting Considering that CPI of course CPI is Still over 4% GDP came in last quarter Annualized at 4.9 those two numbers Alone would make you think the FED would

Hike but doesn't want to and I don't Blame him I mean when you look at at at Some of the stuff going on in the ISM Manufacturing there are certainly parts Of the economy that are slowing down Right so if they think that 5 a half% is Sufficiently restrictive then they don't You know they they they think that all They have to do is hold it higher for Longer right not go up and up forever Just get to a high level and hold it There for a longer period of time and They're putting a lot of faith that that Will bring inflation And it's possible they're right it all Depends on whether 55% is sufficiently restrictive or not Right it all depends on that and I don't I mean unfortunately I don't know the Answer I mean I said over a year ago I Thought the terminal rate would be 5 and A half% but the question of is it Sufficiently restrictive remains to be Seen there is certainly evidence that it Is but the economy has been resilient For a long time and so we'll have to see How how it how it continues to play Out now now on Thursday we had initial Claims and continued claims so we do Want to at least talk a little bit about That so initial claims are still Printing out at pretty low levels okay Pretty low levels now they have been Going up though um you know you can see

That it's a low was found in October Mid- October and it's been moving up Ever since the question is is this just A lower high right or does it reverse The trend I tend to think that it likely Will reverse the trend and start going Back Up but one of the reasons for that is Because I think there is evidence that The econ that the labor market is Starting to show weakness if you look at Continued claims that weakness is Starting to become a parent we mentioned La you know a few months ago that last Year continued claims bottomed out in September before exploding to the upside Until April it looks like they've Bottomed here in September as well and Starting to move up relatively quickly But instead of moving up starting from 1.29 million it's starting at 1.66 Million so the labor market has gotten Weaker right this is starting to move up Again and if you were to look at a Year-over-year percentage change you Know normally when it's positive like This you you run the risk of going into A recession right and and that's Certainly something that we have to to Be mindful of is that this is in Positive territory and it's just a Matter of how long does it stay there if It stays there long enough then yes I I Think it ushers in a recession but when

You look at continued claims you'll Notice that it's going up a lot quicker Than initial claims remember though Initial claims are sort of showing you You know new new layout like new people That have just been recently laid off And they're filing an initial claim Continued claims tell you something Different they tell you how hard is it For people that have been laid off in The past to find a new job so for a long Time people that were getting laid off Were having were not having as much of a Hard time finding a new job but now even Though initial claims have stayed Relatively constant for several months Continued claims are going higher so Those people that are getting laid off Are having a harder time finding a new Job right they're having a harder time Finding a new job and that's reflected In the continued claims and the reason Why that's important is if you go look At the unemployment rate versus claims And we isolate continued claims and the Unemployment rate you can see that the The continued claims tends to lead the Unemployment rate right if continued Claims is starting to move higher the Unemployment rate typically follows okay So that's something that I I think we Have to take into consideration is that Continued claims are starting to move up Therefore it is that is showing some

Weakness in the in the ability for the Market to absorb these people that are Getting laid off right earlier in the Year people who got laid off tend to Have not a hard time finding a new job On average right I don't mean to say That everyone had that now it seems like People are having a little bit of a Harder time and the reason for that of Course is as more and more people get Laid off those other companies that were Looking to hire perhaps they don't need To hire anymore because they already Hired the other people that were laid Off right so as the economy as the Business cycle continues to Unfold the you know continue claims Likely continue to go higher now at this Point continued claims are going up up Even though initial claims are Relatively flat but what happens if Initial claims in a few months start Printing in the 250k or the 300K level Right now they're still just off 200k Per week but um what happens if they Start printing in say the 300K level if That happens then and and the mark and The and the economy has is having a hard Time absorbing new people to the labor Force right if there's not as many People hiring if job openings are going Down Then that can really lead to continued Claims going up quickly because not only

Are people not hiring but more people Are getting laid off and then that gets Reflected very quickly in the Unemployment rate you can see that it Takes a long time for the unemployment Rate to move right we'll just sort of Sit at at low levels for a long time but Then when it moves it can move quickly Right I mean like look at look at the Financial crisis Ian we basically just Hung around that 3.8 a 4% level for for You know over a year and then once you Know once once it started to move it Went 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5 5 5.3 5.7 I mean It it just it moved so quickly once once Things started to break right and you Can see that in other business Cycles It's no different Um here's the Doom crash same thing Right once it moved it moved relatively Quickly I think I was actually looking at the Dot crash initially um yeah I was when I When I said the financial CR I meant the Doom crash the financial crisis actually Went up even quicker um you can see it Started off in the low fours and then Topped out at at almost 10% unemployment So this is why we follow it is because Continued claims leads the unemployment Rate and if initial claims start to go Up in an immaterial way that's where it Could really start to affect continue Claims because more people are getting

Laid off and they're having a harder Time finding a new job therefore the Unemployment rate goes Up so that covers initial claims and Continued claims and then today we got Non-farm payrolls the unemployment rate Hourly wages Etc so if you go look at at Um at nonfarm total nonfarm this is Through the uh the report that we got Today this is different from the ADP You'll see that we added 150,000 jobs 180,000 were expected but that's really Neither here there I mean it's just you Know 30,000 30,000 difference but the Point is it still hasn't printed Negative right normally in a Recession you would you would expect it To really start to print negative and And start to drop right hasn't done that Yet okay and until it does that I I mean I think you can find a reason that it's Not a recession right as long as there's More jobs opening up um again it doesn't Mean that that that the unemployment Rate isn't going higher it is But until this starts printing negative You're going to have reasons to say that It's not a recession right I mean this Is why it takes so long for them to Declare recession Because by the time It's obvious in the data the market Already priced it in long ago I mean if You go look at prior recessions you know The here's here's s of 73 right I mean

Like the market was dropping well before Total non-farm dropped and in fact by The time total non-farm dropped the Market bottom was like was was in right So so then they declare a recession Retroactively everyone says oh crap it's A recession so they sell but then that Ends up being the bottom once the Recession headline actually arrives same Thing over here right the market was Dropping by the time it started printing Negative territory that was near where The market bottom was so when you look At it today and we see it going Higher once it starts to print negative Assuming that it does eventually it will Right I mean depends on if it's you know Is it is it in 2024 who knows right but When it prints negative that can often Correspond near to a a a cycle bottom Okay now looking at it on a month over Monon percentage Change you can see that it's slowing Down right so back in February 2022 6% Change in July 37 so about 04 so 6 in in February 22 by the summer it was at . 4% Month over month by January 2023 it was A. 3% month over month by September it Was at 0. 2% month over month right so What do you Notice the labor market is starting to Show signs of weakness and poell knows This right I mean it it it doesn't you

Don't have to be like a genius to figure Out like why pal is is not hiking Another 25 basis points is because he Can see the data and the data suggest The the the labor market is slowing Down I know they took recession out of Their forecast but what's interesting About that is that you know by the Time when they took recession out of Their forecast that was basically what Marked this top go back and look when The FED they they took the recession out Of their forecast right here and that's When the market Dropped does it sound crazy that GDP is Up 4.9% last quarter it was a it was at Four it was funny enough I mean funny Enough Q3 of 2007 GDP annualized was at 4.9% in in Q3 of 2007 the reason of course there's we Already went the reasons of the fomc Stuff so just go watch that video if you Want me to talk about why I think that Happened but it's interesting I mean it Seems like things are playing out how They always have it's just taking a long Time which is how it always has right it Always takes a long time in the pandemic It all happen like that everyone thinks It's going to happen like that again or A lot of people do and it just doesn't It takes a long time for this stuff to Slow Down so there's a lot of noise in this

Chart for total non-farm I like to Smooth it out using like a three-month Moving average and and you can kind of See a clearer picture here right it's Slowly trending down now the Issue is if it goes negative that could Mark a bottom for the S&P right look at All these prior periods where it Actually went negative that marks some Lows On the S&P here it did not Mark the low in the Dot crash it did not Mark the low the The recession lasted a lot longer in the Financial crisis it did not Mark the low During this period over here of the 70s During High inflation it often marked Low so I'm telling you now I mean like If we get into a recession in say 2024 Or something and the Market's dropping Once these numbers start to print Negative that might be the bottom I mean I know some people think the bottoms are Already in and they could be right right I'm just saying like if it plays out Into a recession recession is a Notorious for putting in a lower Low that's total non-farm Okay we can break it down into Categories let's go look at Manufacturing I believe that it dropped It did negative almost negative 8,000 Jobs sorry that's a moving average Negative

35,000 Jobs right in the manufacturing Sector Starting to go down look at a Year-over-year percentage Change it's almost negative it's almost Negative for Manufacturing look at total government It's up 51,000 right what else is new What else is new the government hire has Been hiring a Lot Construction up 23,000 you can see often times prior Recessions corresponded to Construction Construction Employment Level going down it hasn't gone down yet It's slowing down potentially right if You look at like a quarter over quarter Change or maybe like let's look at a Month over month percentage change and Zoom in and then maybe average this out Over over three months it's been slow Slowing but not very fast to be Completely honest so that one is still Is still doesn't really that bad Yet so what else do we have the Unemployment Rate the one that rules them all it all Comes down to that right it's not 3.9% you can see I sort of built out This base down here notice that it Popped up over here to 3.7 and then Spent the next several months going down

And then it popped up again spent months Going down popped up again spent months Going down popped up up but rather than Go down it went sideways and then up There is a shift here it is happening It's just happening very slowly right But my guess is we start to print in the 4% range within the next few months it Could happen next month but I'm guessing Within the next few months it starts to Print in the 4% range especially if Continue claims continue to go up like They have Been so the unemployment rate is Starting to go higher and you can see That when the unemployment rate goes up That's where the recession starts a lot Of people think that the recession was In 2022 because of two consecutive quarters Of negative GDP but the the recessions Are are are more so related to to people Actually losing jobs right in in 2022 there were not a lot of job losses In fact I mean it seems like everyone Had trouble finding people all these Prior recessions corresponded to the Unemployment rate going Up now it's also true that if you were To look at gross domestic product right GD or so that's gross national product If you were to look at gross domestic Product and and and adjust for Inflation and look at a you know sort of

Like a year-over-year percentage change It's True that when it goes NE actually let Me look at a quarter over quarter it's True that usually when it goes negative It's a recession but it's also true that Usually when it goes negative it also Corresponds to a a rise in the Unemployment rate which has not which Did not happen in 2022 so that is I mean Again I I always see people saying that The recession was in 2022 I Wholeheartedly disagree I mean you don't I don't think you can have a recession When the unemployment rate is at 50-year Lows Right how can you look at this chart and Say oh yeah guys like this this period Here this was the recession right this Was a recession when when the Unemployment rate was going down when Every other instance of these recessions Were when the unemployment rate was Going up so I think the people that Think that 2022 was a recession um could Be in for a rude awakening if a real Recession Comes where the unemployment rate goes Up and if the unemployment rate does not Go Up Then it wasn't a recession right it was Just a bare Market but I'm still the Opinion that it will likely Trend higher

Because that's what it normally does During these aggressive rate hiking Cycles and this has been the most Aggressive rate hiking cycle that we've Ever had so I look at the unemployment Rate it's now at 3.9% starting to move higher um and and It seems like you know continue claims Is leading the way so I would guess it's Going to continue to go up there's some Other there's some other things that we Can look at uh we can look at uh this is The the unemployment level so just Another chart that you can look at this Is like you can break it down into Category so like this is greater than 16 Years you can break it down sort of into Subcategories so like this is between 16 To 19 year olds that's been moving up a Lot um you know that's starting to look A little scary uh of a move here I mean Look at look at how quickly this has Moved off this low from 586 th000 in in April to 8 63,000 in October like this Is moving in the wrong Direction let's look at 20 to 24 year Olds not actually moved down the last Couple of months so these these guys are Doing okay at least according to this Let's look at 25 to 54 year Olds it moved up a little bit right a Little bit right but it's still it's Still trending up the thing is if you Look at a lot of these Cycles right they

They they slowly Trend up for a while And then at some Point they break up quickly right so the Market sort of luls you into a false Sense of security right it just sort of Slowly Trends up not really doing Anything and then all of a sudden it Just aggressively goes higher for like You know six to 12 months and it catches Everyone off guard because they get so Used to the economy being quote unquote Resilient that by the time it's not Resilient it's too late right it's too Late for them to sort of you know have Prepared for it Unemployment level by reason for Unemployment this is always an Interesting one to look at Job losers uh Has gone up again so this is one that Also tends to sort of lead the Unemployment rate as well uh we could Look at at uh new entrance to the labor Force this is one that I imagine will Continue to have strong contributions Especially if you think about student Loan payments starting back up a lot of People are probably maybe haven't been Working but now the student loans have Started back up they have to go get a Job or perhaps their excess savings Savings has just dried up and they have To go get a job so this could be a Reason you know that unemployment goes Up a lot is because there's just a lot

Of new people entering the workforce Competing with people that have already In It so this is starting to really move Higher and if you were to look at a Year-over-year Percentage change right I mean it kind Of already looks like it's getting into Some recession type territory look at a Uh let's look at a seven-month moving Average look at it like that and see Where the recessions occurred and look Where we are now so that certainly Doesn't seem that Great if you were to look at permanent Job Losers slowly turning up not really a Whole lot to see job levers sorry let me Reload this see if it fixes it um job Levers sorry is job Losers relatively flat but that that Shows you some of this you know this Data that we've recently got today right And then we can go look at alternative Unemployment rate measures here's one uh This is the U1 so u3 is a standard Unemployment rate this is what you're Used to there's also the U1 for greater Than 15 weeks unemployed that one has Really popped off the lows recently Right that one really has popped off the Lows um but it's basically been at 1.4% Since August so I I would watch that one To see what that one does in the coming

Months Um we can go look at people not in the Labor force It's relatively flat we can Look at a year-over-year percentage Change um and I mean I just sort of look At what it's doing no clear indication Of how you you know of of sort of a Trend here um but employment statistics The labor force participation rate has Been moving up the civilian Labor Force Level continuing to move up uh looking At a year-over-year percentage change of That uh you can see that during Recessions it does tend to drop off it Hasn't really dropped off yet um total Temporary Help Services employees that Is probably one of the scarier looking Charts because normally the temporary Help Services when it goes down it tends To indic indicate recession right and It's been going down since March of 2022 And if you look at a year-over-year Percentage change right it's it's pretty Clearly a negative territory just like It was in the financial crisis and just Like it was in the Doom crash and just Like was over here in the recession in The early 990s so that's a more scary Looking Chart and then we can of course look at Job quits uh I'm not really sure why This is happening I'll have to get this Checked out but if we look at Job quits You can see that that one has been

Trending down which makes sense as as it Becomes harder and harder to find a job There's going to be fewer people that Quit their job because they're going to Be scared that they're not going to be Be able to find a new job when times are Good you might not not worry about Finding a new job so you quit your job If you don't like it because you know You can go find a new one as monetary Policy becomes more restrictive and we Shift from an employees Market to an Employer's market then people are less Likely to leave their job because they Might be worried they won't be able to Find a new one and you can see that ever Since really late 2021 early 2022 this Has been tring down right so fewer People are are leaving their job this is Total nonfarm fewer people are leaving Their job you can look at a year year Percentage change see it's negative just Like it has been in the prior Recessions here is the job quits rate Trending down uh we already talked about Initial claims and continued claims so That's more or less your jobs report Right some sectors still seem like They're holding up other sectors seem Like they're falling apart continued Claims are going higher indicating it's Harder for people to find a new job once They're laid off even though initial Claims are still relatively low if

Initial claims were to go up into the 250 to 300 level It might lead to the continued claims Going up a lot quicker which would then In turn be reflected in the unemployment Rate so we must understand the labor Market so that we can understand when The FED will shift to to looser monetary Policy and by the Way the market after all the data that's Coming this week instead of expecting a Rate cut by June now they're expecting It by May right now by May again why is That important if you're a d gen at hard And really want to know when alts right Why is that Important Because history shows us that it's not Until we get rate Cuts that Bitcoin dominance tops Out look at last cycle rate Cuts Occurred after the first after we got Rate Cuts that's when dominance topped Out that's when alts collectively were Done bleeding to Bitcoin people keep jumping on altcoins Thinking they're going to outperform Bitcoin over the macro scale when Monetary policy becomes increasingly Restrictive and you might say well They've held it flat it doesn't matter It's still becoming increasingly Restrictive the longer they hold it There so I know a lot of people were

Hoping the dominance would have already Topped out by this past September Because you know September 2019 September 2023 but the reason it topped Out over here arguably was not just Because it was Q3 of the having year but Because we were going back to looser Monetary policy right looser monetary Policy all it's bottomed out against Bitcoin we are not yet going back to L And by the way dominance did not even Top when they started cutting it took a Couple extra months after they started Cutting for dominance to even top out Normally the market doesn't bottom on The First Rate cut right so when you Look at the chart I look at this chart And I say well Bitcoin dominance is Likely going to keep going up because Monetary policy hasn't changed yet and Until monetary policy changes alts are Likely going to bleed back to bitcoin And the Bitcoin dominance will continue To go higher the market isn't even Expecting Cuts until mid 2024 Coincidentally around the Bitcoin Having which is normally when altcoin Start to outperform Bitcoin in the Having year that all lines up kind of Perfectly to some Degree so the reason we focus on the Labor market is because that should give Us insight into when we go back to Looser monetary policy and when we go

Back to looser monetary policy that's When the Bitcoin dominance is likely Entering into a topping Process so we understand the labor Market we study the labor market to Understand future monetary policy future Monetary policy tells us when Cryptocurrencies altcoins are worth the Risk right until then Bitcoin will Likely outperform the altcoin market Whether it goes up or down because Altcoins are bleeding back to bitcoin Regardless if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up we all have We have these charts of course at Intothe links in the Description below I'll see you guys next Time bye


Coinbase is a popular cryptocurrency exchange. It makes it easy to buy, sell, and exchange cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Coinbase also has a brokerage service that makes it easy to buy Bitcoin as easily as buying stocks through an online broker. However, Coinbase can be expensive due to the fees it charges and its poor customer service.

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