How To Use The 2023 Recession To Get Rich | Mark Yusko on Crypto, Best Stocks, Investing Tips

Like they're gonna punish crypto because Of FDX right when when all is said and Done there's going to be some punishing Legislation that comes down to try to Slow the growth and maybe that was the Plan all along right maybe the plan all Along was the great reset in terms of of Am I buying Bitcoin here the answer is Uh if I look back at my life in Investing the best investments I've ever Made have been in recessions Bear Markets [Music] Hey welcome back everybody to altcoin Daily my name is Austin back again with Founder of Morgan Creek Capital Management and co-founder of Morgan Creek digital Mark yusco thanks for Joining me Oh thanks for having me back it's a uh An inauspicious week as we start the FTX Bankruptcy hearings this morning and a Lot of pain and suffering the last Couple weeks since we were last together But uh this too shall pass shall we say We'll get through it but man it it's Brutal out there so what's your take Like how much does this change things in Crypto well Good question I mean I think it it Certainly changes a lot It actually doesn't change anything and What I mean by that is FTX wasn't building anything right in

Terms of it wasn't it wasn't a protocol Itself I mean FDT nonsense aside but it It wasn't building a base layer of the New monetary system like Bitcoin it Wasn't building a a user interface for For all of of D5 like ethereum or others So from that perspective it was a bank Yeah so essentially an exchange or a Brokerage firm or a bank that was a C5 Solution right the transition from Trad Phi to D5 That unfortunately was run by really bad Guys and gals and uh committed major Fraud uh were likely to uncover the the Links to just how deep the fraud goes uh Over time but from you know it CL what I Mean by the it's a lot and a little is Look the industry is very interconnected Particularly at The Leverage level and So the unwinding of the leverage and People who who depended on FTX or Alameda being truthful about the Assets they owned or the the liabilities They had Turns out they couldn't uh rely on that And uh in some ways it argues for faster Movement toward the D5 future that I Think we all Embrace which is we don't Want to trust we want to have truth and You know I even dubbed the blockchain Era the the truth net you know we want To replace trust with truth and the Banks have had an 800 year run I like to say it's over but I think it's

Going to extend a little bit because I Think what this event does Is it slows down that transition Right and you know for years people say Well the you know the governments could Just ban crypto or ban Bitcoin nope You Can't Ban something that's decentralized Or or Um Uh censorship resistance disruptive Distributed distributes the word I'm Searching for so you can't ban it Because it's like squeezing the air in a Balloon the air just goes someplace else But what you can do is you can make the On-ramps and off ramps really hard to Navigate like I'm big you know Top Gun Guy top gun Maverick great movie you can Literally send the tomahawk missiles to Blow up the Airfield Right But Maverick found a way to take off on That little short you know taxiway uh so So we will still take off it's just that Um the banks definitely bombed bombed The runway and then why I say Uh not at all is at the end of the day Well 10 billion dollars is a lot of Money don't don't get me wrong 10 Billion dollars to to steal or or or Blow through bad trading is is a lot of Money and the collateral on top of that Makes it orders of magnitude worse than That but at the end of the day we're

Talking about a trillion dollar Asset which is digital assets broadly Speaking and that's just the protocols Themselves you throw on another three Four hundred billion on top of that for The infrastructure companies that that Support it 10 billion isn't really that much and I think and I I get some pushback on This but I think the mount gox event To me was a bigger deal In the sense that there weren't a lot of Options back then I mean there was Mount Oxen a couple you know little tiny Exchanges kind of like the early days of Isps before AOL there's one a lot of Options and so that Was a near-death event But we survived and we built and we Thrived and this there are 500 exchanges Yes this was arguably the second largest Never really was because it was fake but Um it's you know there are lots of other Exchanges out there and One last thing and I'll stop with this Long rambling answer to a simple Question Um I do worry that we still have this I think unnecessary and I think Detrimental tribalism and snarkiness Back and forth about I said I told you C5 was all a fraud and a Ponzi you need To burn it all down Hey guys

No we need we the industry need Platforms on which we can use these Assets If the only thing you're supposed to do With digital assets is Bitcoin put it on Cold storage and bury it in the backyard We can all just go home we got that That's called gold and it's been working For 5 000 years and it doesn't have the Problem of the hard drive getting Corrupted it doesn't have the problem of The code getting hacked it just exists And so for five thousand years it's been A better form of Pure store of value I believe Bitcoin is Better and I believe things Beyond Bitcoin are are the future but the Tribalism and the everybody needs to Kill all of this you know Rehypothecation mechanism and Fractioners or banking is a fraud it's Just nonsense I ask people name a Country that you would live in that Doesn't have a good fractions or banking System I'll wait right I mean think of one Think a young go the DRC maybe you want To go to Somalia maybe I mean I I don't Know pick one I got nothing Oh I know you I but I'm just and you're Not you're not the responsible you know I'm not I'm not yelling at you I'm Yelling it at The Ether uh or the air

Not The Ether I'm not yelling at ether After I'm yelling at the air Um anyway Yeah so so essentially what you're Saying is despite these troubled times In crypto you're even more bullish on Defy or web3 whatever that brings Exactly well said and that's much more Concise yes I am and and I'm bullish Because This is inevitable technology it's as Inevitable as the internet And look I lived through again old Um I lived through the 2000 2001 2002 Tech wreck and everybody everybody was Like uh see this is it I told you this Is a big fraud and ponzis and this is This is the end of this and the Technology is useless and it'll never be More important than a fax machine and Look and web van and all these Terrible companies digital Island you Know terrible companies Yeah there were some bad companies that It wasn't even they were bad companies They were just poorly run they needed More Tech you know Is Right it's the same business it just Took 20 years to get the UI ux right to Get the GPS tracking right to get the E-commerce platforms right But it's a better way to get your dog Food it just is

And or cat food whichever one you prefer Um I got one of each begging to get in Here so I had to close the door Um but but that that that siren Call of The internet's a fad the internet's Going away we're using the internet Right now and we're using the thing that That the comp the telephone companies Tried to kill right voice over Internet Protocol which we're using as we speak Uh pun intended is is and was Public Enemy Number One and the phone companies Tried to pass regulation to kill it just Like Government's trying to pass regulation To kill off crypto why Because the telephone companies didn't Want competition they like charging Three dollars a minute for long distance And the banks don't want competition From defy and crypto so what are they Doing they're paying Regulators to thump And you know I talked about I think we Might have talked about this last time Right the the Gandhi quote you know First which he didn't save and I wish I Remember who actually said it but first They ignore you then they laugh at you Then they fight you then you win So yeah they ignored us 2009 to 15 yeah Nerds and Geeks playing through magic Internet money whatever then they laugh At you 16 to 21. ah these guys they're So stupid what are you wasting all your

Time for go get a real job Then they fight you 2022 to 2027 Fight and this fight is just getting Warmed up like they're gonna punish Crypto because of FDX right when when All is said and done there's going to be Some punishing legislation that comes Down to try to slow the growth But it won't kill it because the good News if you're in the space you've Already won I mean it's not that we're Going to win we've already won and so Why am I wildly bullish and wildly Bullish because I see the world that I've lived in my Whole life Financial Services Is wasteful bloated over built old right 70 plus year old technology to transfer Money I literally I have to make a wire Transfer today Actually I had to do two and and you'll Love this so I could also transfer usdc but the Problem is the banks won't let me Transfer more than 25k per day out of my Own bank it's my money and I can't take More than 25k out to put into usdc so it Takes me a certain number of days to get To the 100K I need to make this Investment And so I I got enough to send one by uh usdc Instantaneous Send it to the eth address paid for my

Investment in this company met a good Runs on chain monkeys all excited about That But I need to send some money to another Defy investment I'm doing that's not Defy it's more the base layer for what's What's eventually going to be D5 Um but I just don't have enough usdc so I'm just going to do a wire and it's Going to cost me 25 bucks and it's not Going to go until you know a couple days And then they'll be closed on Thursday And it probably won't even get there Till Friday and it just pisses me off Person some people at post FTX think That because the contagion man that's Going to make the bear Market double Down last twice as long some people I've Heard think this is going to speed up The bear Market because everything's Happening now and nothing worse Potentially could come after this what Do you think for Bitcoin yeah I I Probably I probably lean more with the Latter with a big capital b capital u Capital T comma There are two other big big big bad Things that if they were to happen It's not that the bear Market it's not That crypto winter extends I do think We're in crypto spring But the bear Market could continue Because we had I'll call it you know Hurricane Sam or or you know Nor'easter

Sam you know every March not every much About every 10 years in March we get a Nor'easter off the coast of North Carolina where I live and it dumps you Know a foot of snow in March and nobody Knows how to deal with that it's spring You know two weeks earlier I was Barbecuing and then I get you know foot Of snow And that's kind of what FTX is it was a Big old storm Sam bad guy Caroline bad Person bad people bad people do bad Things you know hate the players not the Game it's not the game's problem it's The players uh Uh but now the problem is I call it earthquake I'm a switch mixed Metaphors here If gbtc Has to liquidate That will be very bad in the short run I Mean like really bad and and look it's Right in the crosshairs right now I mean They have a billion dollar hole caused By FTX and Genesis and Barry's trying Desperately to raise Capital but if if He's forced to actually liquidate the Trust To close the discount That that could be ugly because I put 600 000 plus Bitcoin on on the market And that that'll I didn't want to say how low we go then Uh and everything else would follow you

Know big high school rests not big I was A high school wrestler not a big Wrestler but my coach had this great Line you know where the head goes the Body follows Um so you want someone to move to the Right push their head to the right the Other one I love to say is you know we'd Be I can't breathe coach I can't breathe Like if you can talk you can breathe so When you stop talking then I'll break it Up Um but the second one is is tether I'm not a tether fudster I I don't really believe there's no there There do I believe they have a hundred Cents on the dollar probably not I Probably don't actually so You know Is is that the fact that they're in the Bahamas Along With Sam makes me nervous Um honestly the fact that they met the Day after you know it all came out makes Me nervous you know they tracked the Guy's tail number to the Bahamas where He met with Sam so that that bugs me so If that were to You know sees that would be ugly so Those are the two earthquakes that I'm Worried about Um forget you know nor'easters those Would be major major earthquakes When people are asking themselves which Is a very individual question for them

Buy Bitcoin now or wait for you Personally sounds like you're buying Monkey infrastructure or something so You're buying yeah look I I mean I I Believe I mean metagood is cool because I like it because they're trying to Monetize Good Karma Right it's a community that tries to Recognize when people do good in the World and give them Moana that they can Spend in the ecosystem I think it's a Cool little project I like Good Karma I Like paying forward I like doing good Acts uh and so far it's been interesting You know is that going to be a monster Company no is it gonna save the future Of Finance no is it a really interesting Idea that you can own A gateway to a community and be part of A community to do something good in the World yeah I think that's pretty cool Um In terms of of am I buying Bitcoin here The answer is No uh talking a lot about it in fact you Know I get a text just about every day From the other guys on my on my teams And now now like look I'm not a day trader I'm a I'm a DCA Person I like to you know dollar cost Average Um And and I do believe that everyone in This space should pick a percentage that

You want to own one percent two percent Three percent five percent whatever the Number is whatever you're comfortable With And you shouldn't buy it all at once you Should buy it over time so you know I Don't look at the price to decide I say Okay I set that I'm going to buy some You know this week and next week and the Next week and the next month and the Next month And It was funny I was I did a CNBC thing And it's been on Twitter a bunch of Times and uh while I was on the show the Price went from ten to eight I mean like Literally in the six minutes I was on The show and Melissa Lee the host said No what should we do I buy it And and literally she like was perplexed She's like oh will you just say that no Matter what the price I'm like yep I Would buy it today buy it tomorrow buy It next week buy it next month but don't Buy it all at once right buy it over Time and so You know We the way the way our funds work so you Know our fund one that was raised in 2018 We had a plan to buy 20 of the fund in Bitcoin and and other digital assets we Set that out over appeared I think we Started in kind of March of 19 and

Finished in July of 19. we did a little Bit every week uh and got that that in There so our average cost back then was Like five thousand bucks for 4 800 Something like that fund two we raised In 2020 same thing 20 Um buy it over time I think our average Entry price there was like eight and Uh fund three we just finished and we Said all right we're gonna go to in this Case uh we have a we have a 20 Target But our fund was a little smaller we Thought so we might not get all the way To twenty percent Um but make a long story short is we Started to buy some and higher obviously And you know we bought a little more Lower and we'll probably buy a little More sometime in the next couple weeks Uh so that's the way those funds work You know me personally Um most everything I do is through my Funds uh we have something called the Risk managed Bitcoin fund uh I put money In that that owns Bitcoin when it's Trending up it goes to cash when it's Trending down today it's sitting in cash So it's some point it's going to turn And buy a bunch I have another fund that we call The Innovation fund again it it was launched Way back when it bought over a period of Weeks and I had a big chunk of that and Then I own pieces of all of our our

Venture funds so and and I'm technically Not supposed to Trade even though it's interesting even Though uh Bitcoin is not a security been Deemed not a security by the SEC Because I manage a Bitcoin Futures ETF Called [ __ ] Um which again is either in Bitcoin or In cash Um And because they manage that they made Me change my code of ethics so that Bitcoin is now a security so I'm You know I'm restricted on my day on my Trade personal trading which I think is Weird but they're the SEC so they can do What they want so yeah I I say thank you May have another and uh like that scene In An animal house Um but uh anyway long answer to your Question yeah so and what do you think About the stock market are they in a Better place now than crypto You know it's a very good question Um Look I think the stock market is in a Very precarious place as well whereas Digital assets are in a precarious place Because of potential exogenous events Kind of further unwinding uh of Leverage Um if there if it turns out there is Leverage in tether which again not not Saying there is not making any Accusations but if there turns out to be

That'll be a problem Um I think the stock market is stuck Between A rapidly slowing economy Right the the economic growth is is Rapidly slowing I mean Europe's going to Have a deep recession uh in 2023 U.S Likely In a recession whether we get out of Recession this quarter I don't know Um you know most of the Q3 and Q4 growth That people are pointing to is really Just we you know Drew down the spr and Sold it It's not really growth I mean it's like The broken window fallacy right you Break a window they don't count that Against GDP but then you sell it I mean Then you fix it and that counts for GDP Or hurricane hits they don't count the Destruction they only count the fixing That's just stupid but uh so I I I think That the growth is slowing globally What could change that and make stocks More attractive China right if China Stops with this nonsense of zero covid I Mean it's just dumb right it's it's Impossible first of all it is it is Impossible Impossible to have zero deaths related Respiratory viruses it's impossible Physically impossible so then that must Not be the plan well what's the plan

Well the plan is control command and Control you know the little green yellow Red you know you can't get on train if If it's not green it's just social Credit and now it's going to Health in Addition to social credit so that's just Command and control really dystopian bad But by locking down It's caused supply chain problems and Disruptions and so if you look at the Stock market is simply a discounted Stream of feature cash flows if growth Is slowing you're going to have lower Cash flows interest rates are rising so Now you're discounting at a higher rate That means valuation is lower now we've Come down a decent amount but the Problem is we're still 79 over fair value if you add up all the Fair value of all equities you know We're still 79 which means even a 44 Drop from here just to get to fair value Now that doesn't have to happen we've Been above fair value for most of the Last 20 years because of QE but they Actually constricted money supply in the Last 12 months not expanded it in the U.S not in Europe uh or Japan but So again that's a long answer to say I'm not a big buyer stocks in we have a Hedge fund product and we're pretty Hedged up Um we are thinking about buying China Here I I think Chinese stocks are super

Cheap and and look interesting as a risk Reward Uh I think the big tech stocks in the US Are better than they were but still Pretty expensive Um Particularly Apple like super expensive You know Meta almost cheap enough I mean he's Almost destroyed that to the point where It's worth buying Um and then the rumor today that he's Going to retire next year which is Probably just a rumor Um but the stock probably went up on That Um If we get a recession and they fed Pivots stocks will rally because Everybody's short Um the problem is you know we had that Up four percent day in the s p and up Six percent day in NASDAQ a week ago Friday something like that That never happens in a bull market ever Not ever right there have been zero four Percent up days in Bull markets I'm Sorry that that always happens in Bear Markets not bull market it has never Happened in a bull market not ever zero Times Mission no no that's exactly no no a Bull market goes up most days a little But goes down sharply on bad news or

Perceived bad news a bear Market goes Down most days and goes up sharply on Good news or perceive good news it was Perceived good news that the uh Inflation number was only 7.7 instead of 7.8 You're joking right I mean yeah that's Not really really good news but it was Enough to cause a massive short squeeze You know carvana carvana Equity is Worthless we'll stop equities worthless Their debt exceeds their assets no way The stock has any value went up 30 Percent that day This is dumb right that that's a sign of A broken market so I I think punting in Stocks right now very very dangerous uh Are there some things out there that are Approaching fair value sure but you know It's like zoom zoom went down again Today it's a great product we're using It right now but it got to such stupid Valuations during the lockdowns that It's just getting back and it's still Not a fair value it could still go down Like I say Peloton could still go down It's down 90 something percent it could Still go down and still be expensive Because it's a stationary bike with an IPad that turns into a close rack right I mean it just it's just not a great Business Um but whatever On this topic I want to give you now

More of a fun slash critical thinking Question as you were just getting into The stocks for crypto for stocks Whatever if you were starting again from Zero how would you build a portfolio so If you have a thousand dollars how would You diversify fantastic question Uh Now it's hard because I it's a different Answer for me Um you know one just being old I have You know accumulated enough to get past The stupid accredited investor standard Let's say you're 20. the accredited Investor standard you know that's to Protect the little guy no it's not it's To protect the big people it's a gated Community that allows all the good deals To go to the rich people so I can do Things like private Equity Venture Capital hedge funds that the average Investor can't do which stinks so I'll I'll answer it more from a a typical Investor non-accredited investor You can't really do as much in in Venture Capital private Equity Energy Natural resources real estate so I would I would try to use proxies there And you know that's Innovation as an Asset class which means you're going to Be overweight Tech now I just said Tech Was overvalued well big tax overview I Think there's a lot of small cap tech Companies

Um biotech is a great example biotech's Gotten punished this year so I think Starting to accumulate biotech Healthcare looks interesting so I'd Probably take 20 and I'd put it in a mix of healthcare Biotech small cap Tech Uh and maybe kind of energy Tech but not Tesla Tesla's like stupid price Um Then I would take probably 20 into like A commodity backed portfolio so hard Commodities physical Commodities Um maybe even some eggs maybe uh Although I'm not super bullish in that Space But but Metals Um for sure uh gold and gold miners have Just gotten punished I think they're They're super cheap uh so probably 20 in That commodity basket I probably still keep 20 in cash or or Our cash substitute like we run Something called CSH which is SPAC Arbitrage that basically takes the the Specs before they buy another company And just converts the the treasuries Into cash and so we make you know low Single digit returns so I I don't some Real cash that's liquid I would would Hold I probably have you know again if you're Younger not accredited I'd probably be In the 10 to 20 percent in in crypto uh And to me that's you know three to five

Percent in Bitcoin uh probably another Three percent in ethereum There are a couple other projects but This is not my expertise I mean it's What you guys do on your show You know I want to like things like Avalanche I want to like uh things like Cosmos and polka dot but they just have Struggled so much Um you know I want to like what's Happening in algorand I really do but It's just struggle I wanna I wanna own You know I want to own the D5 protocols But the problem is the protocols aren't Really linked to the cash flows so that I struggle with that I mean the closest One I guess maybe is uni but even that's Not a perfect match Um So that's uh and again and then I would Try to do some private and say I would Do private investments in in digital That's if the average investor can't do That so that leaves me another 20 and Then that last 20 I put half of that I Put 10 in China particularly China Tech Well you know something like K web or Something Um and then that last ten percent I Probably float around the other Emerging Markets you know the Brazil's if you Could do Russia I would buy Russia but You can't buy Russia so that's tough uh India is interesting

Um There's some interesting stuff in in The frontier markets there's a frontier Market ETF I can't remember the ticker But uh rather than the Russia piece Maybe I'd take that that uh two and a Half percent and put it there For the for the crypto aspect of your Portfolio one like I think everybody is Always you know over or perfectly Weighted on bitcoin and ethereum Obviously they're the Market Movers from For me personally like I'm an L1 guy Like I don't know Um which one will make in the end but Just like a basket of five or six just Because no matter if uh if D5 makes or What aspect of defy or nfts or whatever Like the value is accruing on those Underlying chains yes as well so besides Bitcoin eth like do the L1 look I Totally agree with that and so I you Know look most people know you know we Made and and lost a lot of money in Solana uh I still think there's there There I I struggle with the one thing About Solana Is Well there's two things one it tends to Go out which I don't like and two it's Not a hundred percent accurate so there Are certain use cases that you just Can't use you know if I'm rendering a Game it's got a little glitch I don't

Really care I mean I was playing Pokemon Go with my son last night and my whole Thing glitched like okay it happens Um and that's not even on on chain That's just you know typical uh piece of Software but you know glitches in gaming That happens if I got an nft that Doesn't render perfectly at first okay No problem but if I'm doing accounting I Gotta have 100 per you know you know 100 Not 99.99 I need 100 So so then I probably lean toward Avalanche and You know I like them polka dot and and Cosmos I think You can make really good cases why they Could be winners Um Beyond those those big four I said I do Struggle I I want I mean I don't know so what would you Add to that I mean I'm curious I I mean I agree with you I mean Gavin Wood even though we just stepped down as CEO you know a huge value add for polka Dot uh cardano has a huge Grassroots Community like the engagement like that The average people love cardano Um there's something there the invest The invest see that that one to me Reminds me of xrp Right the people love it but the Developers and the users don't seem to Love it and that's the part I don't

Really get I just I just have a it you Know look I don't think xrp and and Cardano are like Doge and Shiva which Are just total literally dog I mean Literally like I mean must go to zero Um I just don't understand them in fact I I You know the only thing it was and it Looks like maybe I'm right is I said you Know the bear Market can't be over until Those are zero I mean I actually said That on television six months ago And then you know I really thought we Had bottomed in June and I didn't see Hurricane Sam coming but I I was struggling with that right I was Out of cognitive dissonance that those Things didn't go to zero Um And at least what Doge there's there's Some prayer that Elon somehow gets it Into something so it could be used as an Exchange maybe I mean parlor was going To try to use it as a token on their Platform but no one goes to parlor Anymore Um you know someone's going to figure Out a decentralized Twitter Please please I mean so you can actually Reward creators and and having an Economy in addition to just a platform Look It's scary actually when I pick up my

Phone and look at the stats every day How much time I spend on Twitter And you know they ever said did you buy Your check right no I'm not going to pay Eight dollars for a check mark who gives A crap if it's white or blue I don't Care But if they said you can't be on Unless you pay like I gave up the Wall Street Journal I gave up the New York Times I gave up the local newspaper when They when they went to pay I think I might be forced to pay because It's that good because the network is so Big You know I've tried forecaster for Example I had a decentralized version And it's great there's a bunch of web 3 Guys I don't know that there are any Gals on there probably are some gals I Just haven't seen any but There's not that many people like I did A poll Zero Like I do a poll and look I'm not I'm Not Elon so I'm not going to get Millions of hits but I do a poll on Twitter I get Few hundreds sometimes a thousand Responses like a zero so I want Forecaster to do well and I like it and It has a look and feel And I like the people there because They're all web three people that I want

To hang out with but I you know we we need the network Effects so so that's the struggle is Yes you have a big Network effect of of Day Traders But there's no there there there's no Use case there I'm still looking for use Cases that's that's you know that's my Job Mark final question looking into 2023 And we sort of already mentioned this But just summing everything up what is Your forecast for crypto for the stock Market in 2023 yeah yeah I knew you're Gonna ask me that question and you said I could you know it's funny I I tell the Story I got I got media training once And and uh the guy you know said okay Sit down Garrett [ __ ] okay And he asked me a question let's start Answering he says what are you doing What Matt I'm answering the question it Says you never answer the question you Deflect and redirect and talk about what You want to talk about so I want to talk About Notre in football no I don't know Um actually I do want to talk about that We're gonna we're I I fingers crossed we We beat USC this week and save our Season Um not just a good season but it'd be a Better season if we could beat them Um But

I I'm a dutiful firstborn so I will always Answer the question so I will answer Your question so in the stock market I'm gonna I'm gonna caveat it saying I believe it's Reasonably likely that it is You know 2002. That you know people forget that the Market really wasn't down in 2000 it was Down single digits then it fell low Double digits in 2001 because Everybody's like oh you know the fed's Going to come in and save us after 9 11 And and there's a little rally in the Fourth quarter and then Enron and Worldcom and all the nonsense came out And we went down 20 2 or 23 in O2 and that's kind of what I Feel I feel like I feel like the FTX is Like an Enron moment Um in that just fraud is bad and if There's one fraud there's more frauds so I think the frauds will bubble to the Surface in the stock market I think There are a lot of frauds I think the Accounting Shenanigans in in U.S stocks Are like like stock based compensation How can you turn an expense into Revenue That just makes no sense to me but Um so I I think there's there's a lot of Fluff still in in the stock market so I Would say If some of that fluff Rises and we get a

Couple Bad actors you know we could we Could be the only thing that saved the Markets after 2002 was Uh basically the war in in 2003 so you Know could we start a war and and you Know pump up the economy and get things Growing again sure that's what happens All the time right Russia has a bad Economy they drop missiles in Afghanistan we have bad economy dropping Missiles in Afghanistan so we could we Started War but Interest rates I think will Peak this Quarter and then head down you're Already seeing it in the 10-year and the Third year they're already headed down So so I think that would actually be Positive for equities uh I think in the Short run it'll be super positive like People will be oh this is awesome it'll Be a big short squeeze and the crappy Stuff will go up and then people realize Huh Rates are falling because economy is Getting worse that's not good for stocks So then you might have that that you Know second Cascade down Um and then the wild card is if China Ends zero covid bull market like like Meaningful 20 plus percent if they end Zero covet so and maybe that was the Plan all along right maybe the plan all Along was the great reset right things Were super crazy highly valued

Egregiously valued everywhere and we Just reset everything and we get Expectations down and then we release It's it's like when I watch the You know the president say we're the Greatest job creation presidency in History like no We took people out of the workforce and Then we let them go back you didn't Create those jobs it's the same jobs it It's not job creation that's not and you Know GDP went down 31 and then it Rebounded and we had we had the greatest GDP increase no you you didn't that's Just that's just math so that's a really Long answer to the stock market I think The the most likely is downward trending With the potential for a really ugly Period if if some fraud comes out With a wild card of end of zero covet Would would be bullish on this on the Crypto side I'm a stand by my statement that we're In crypto spring at last through the First quarter next year uh the having is April of 2024. so usually nine months to 12 Months in advance of that we start the Next parabolic up move uh I think we'll Be mostly healed of of all the nonsense That's going on right now by then and so I would think April May June time frame Could be the beginnings of Summer uh and Crypto Summers is when things should get

Interesting I think you know Builders Build uh if I look back at my life in Investing the best investments I've ever Made have been in recessions Bear Markets you know because people get Displaced they gotta do something they Start a new company and it turns out to Be great and whether that was JetBlue Airlines in 2001 you know where that was Splunked in 2009 whether that was Um You know investing in in Bitcoin in in 2018-19 so because it was early 19. so I Do think crypto broadly and and people Get so mad right Bitcoin and nothing Else well whatever there's Bitcoin There's a whole bunch of other stuff is 90 of it maybe 95 of it garbage yeah Sure but not all of it and let's say Five percent is good you know that's 500 projects that are good and maybe It's only 200 projects there's still Plenty of projects Um so I do think Builders will build We'll build you know one one caveat on That awesome Ryan selkis had a great thread this Morning that I retweeted retweeted and Uh He had a point that I thought was really Good Let's take stock In the last four years What's actually been built that's

Durable It's a hard question to answer actually You know we had a lot of you know this You know to the Moon and back But have we really built things that are Durable and you know you could say There's some C5 protocol I mean D5 Protocols that look like they're durable But even those are teetering now with With the deleveraging uh you could say You know Bitcoin and Bitcoin only fine you can Say that Um but what about the infrastructure Around The rest and and as we migrate into into Web 3 there are a lot of things that are Going to be done in a decentralized and Distributed World there just are Um but we haven't really we haven't Built all of it yet but we shouldn't Have an expectation S curves last 30 Years first 10 over 10 years next 80 Over 10 years and the last 10 percent of The last 10. I'm gonna throw out the First four years where it was just total Science project you know there wasn't Anybody really doing anything So I'll say we're a decade in and a Decade in we should have about 10 I Think we're at 11 or something percent Of users That means the next decade Is the big growth right and that's when

You think back to 96 Was the the beginning of the internet Phase from 96 to 000 was the first wave And then the crash and then the monster Wave on the other side if 2024 is the Beginning of the truth net as I called So you know 54. I'm sorry yeah 54 68 It's every 14 years 54 Mainframe 68 Microchip 82 personal computer 96 Internet 2010 mobilenet and 2024 truth Net if 2024 is just the beginning of That four-year cycle so from 24 to 28 That's gonna be a kick-ass ride I mean Unbelievable ride and we'll actually Build some stuff that's meaningful then We'll have another crash like a big one Like a one where people say oh this is Over Then you get the great companies right The Facebooks and the the equivalents of Facebooks and the Googles and the and The apples that will come out on the web Three or by then we'll probably call it Web 17. since you know we skipped four And went right to five by then it'll Probably be web 17 and whatever but the Next iteration of the web where creators Create owner's own no more big Monopolies uh we can actually own the Rails we actually displace all of the Nonsense in fintech where there's no Tech you know we're using 70 year old Technology to transfer money and we get To like it was way easier to push a

Button and move my usdc than it is to Send a wire it's just better it's just Superior and if I can do that over the Bitcoin blockchain using Strike App Around the world I I get more money to people right Instead of losing 20 in remittances into You know corrupt people around the world It goes to the person who needs it in The Philippines or in in El Salvador so Again long rambling answer but I'm gonna say like we said in January This year that it was going to be a Tough year for Bitcoin And but it would be a good year for the Metaverse right that the metaverse would Make progress that actually hadn't been A great year for metaverse either stocks Like Roblox is down meta's down But uh I think a lot of building has Happened and so I think next year the Surprise will be it probably does turn Out to be a pretty good year for Bitcoin And and other but it'd be a really Really good year for web 3 web 5 Whatever we're gonna call it Mark yusco man such great perspective Thank you for joining me the links for All your stuff are down below uh where Where can the people find you though you Know I'm easy I'm at markusco on Twitter Uh I'm there a lot because my wife says Way too much I actually am decent about DMS uh although by the way if if I don't

Respond to your DM just shame me Publicly because I forget a lot that There are two sides of the inbox people I follow and people I don't and so I Have to actively go to the right side of The inbox to find things sometimes if I'm not following you but uh I do Eventually go there and uh other than The scambots and the people you know Um you know proposing marriage I know That never happens by the way Um I I just delete those but uh I do I Do actually respond and then at Morgan is our website and um Otherwise I'm on you know podcast every Every Friday I'm on on the margin that's My big thing best hour of my week [Music]


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