How High Can Bitcoin Go in 2024? (REALISTICALLY)

What are your next price targets for Bitcoin today I interview Quant analyst Benjamin Cowan and we discuss based on The data how high realistically could The Bitcoin price go next year in 2024 Post Avenue and then of course today why Is the Bitcoin price sinking why are we Going down I think we've talked a little Bit about expectations for the Pre-halving year and our general Expectations as you saw in 2019 is we Kind of spent half the year going up Half the year going down and we we Really get into that time-based Capitulation part which I think is Probably more brutal honestly than Price-based capitulation is where we get To the phase where people just really Don't care anymore you know and and they Say you know people don't really care if The price goes up they don't really care If the price goes down we start to set Into into some form of apathy and I I Still think that it's likely where we're Headed and you know hopefully the Markets will pick back up sometime maybe Like mid next year So we're not there yet like I it seems Apathetic now but I guess there is still An audience people are watching this Video liking this video now We have to wait till they leave Yeah I mean uh the unfortunate aspect of It is is normally yeah I would say do

You know that do you remember the social Risk we looked at previously yes Um that that's kind of interesting Because if you if you look at it here You can see that can you can you see the Socialist right here yes I would like I Would like for us to to set some higher Lows and higher Highs at some point Um we have been unable to do that so far You can see it's just one lower high and One lower low after another and if you Were to take say like a 30-day moving Average of the social risk you can see That we're kind of getting into some Territory that we haven't seen in a long Time and that's that zero to point one Wristband which normally good things are Not happening once we enter it I think The sort of the glass half full approach Is to say that well once we hit rock Bottom there's only one One Direction Left to go and that's theoretically up I Just don't I don't think the social rest Because it's fully bottomed out yet you Can see that it actually went lower uh In 2018 and in 2019 in terms of the 30 Days they may have it compared to where It is right now right now So what's the biggest indicator that's Affecting Bitcoin and crypto today is it Still the Fed Yeah I mean I think we need to see Liquidity come back to the cryptiverse And that's just simply not going to

Happen when you know we have we have you Know core CPI still printing where it is If you look at inflation year over year You know it's still sitting between Three to four percent which is again not Where the FED really wants it to be and As long as this is the case right as Long as we see inflation high and we see A relatively tight labor market it is Unlikely that the FED is going to Pivot Um you know if you if you were to look At I think we've talked about net Liquidity before like like total net Liquidity or global net liquidity you Know if you look at that chart in General when liquidity is going down It's going to act as a headwind for you Know for things like Bitcoin and of Course for the altcoin market so ideally We'd get to the point it's you know Where we where we start to see liquidity Flow back and I don't really think we're Going to see that as long as inflation Is is it three to four percent and Remember the fed up until this point it Was yeah they have a dual mandate right They need sustain they need um price Stability but they also want to see Maximum employment so far they've been Trying to reach price stability by Bringing inflation back down the labor Market has barely budged but with you Know with with job openings coming down And and likely to see some seasonal

Effects we're here with initial claims And and continue claims we've seen them Go back up in September like we did last Year I think as we get to the end of This year early next year we're going to See the lag effects finally take hold And then the fed's going to have to sort Of weigh the balance between inflation And and the labor market so Theoretically sometime next year once We're on the other side of a Fed pivot I Think we'll see liquidity flow back into The cryptiverse And how does the I guess the stock Market is affected by the FED as well How about the housing market does that Affect the overall crypto Market yeah For sure I mean you know housing housing Is interesting because the housing Market moves at a snail's pace Especially compared to crypto I mean With crypto it's like if you put out a Prediction and it doesn't pan out the Next day people say you're wrong you Know uh with the housing market it can Often take it can take years to play out You can look at things like you know Sale this is like the sale price the Median sale price of houses sold for the United States and I mean this this one At least shows it's coming back down Which is again arguably what the FED Would like to see Um the the the months to sell a new home

Was actually going back down which is Not a you know not a good thing Especially if the fed's wanting to sort Of loosen up Supply but the thing we Have to remember about the the housing Market is that these these Cycles take Place over many many years right it's Not like the cryptoverse where you go up Two thousand percent in a year and then You go down 80 the next year it's sort Of like a long grueling process so I'm Sort of looking for you know like here's A good example right like months months To sell a new home I think that it Probably bottomed out here at one and a Half months Um in October of 2022 I'm thinking it Probably puts in a higher low Here as we get into the end of the year And then continues to slowly slowly move Back up so in terms of the housing Market we saw you know we saw it slow Down a lot right and of course that was Due to higher interest rates that was One of the things higher interest rates People don't want to go take out a Mortgage seven or eight percent if They're just simply not used to that Being the norm but as the FED continues To push higher for longer Um at some point I imagine something's Going to break and the people that have Been unwilling to sell their home Because they're locked in a low price

That could change you know here in the Next year or two as especially if we Ultimately get a recession right if you Think about what makes people want to Sell their home it would be if they're Moving for a new job uh it could be if They're just laid off of course there's Also you know just big life events like You get married or something like that But remember the FED will continue this Process until they see a material impact And I I don't really think they've seen That just yet which is why they're Likely going to keep interest rates Higher for for a longer for a period of Time What are your next price targets for Bitcoin Yeah I mean so for Bitcoin I I think There's a good chance that sort of in in Terms of the next like let's call it Four to six weeks I think we're likely Going to see price pull back to at least That 23 000 Mark uh a couple of reasons For that just from a monthly candle Perspective I mean 23k is is sort of Where all this prior uh support and Resistance was so I think there's a good Chance we'll see Bitcoin pull back into 23k there another reason to sort of Consider 23k if you were to Overlay the Year-to-date Roi in 2023 Compared to the average of 2015 and 2019 Kind of seems like we're just going to

Continue this slow fade like as you can See the the prior average did and this Would put us down at around twenty three Thousand dollars so I think that in the Short term we're likely going to see Bitcoin fade down to 23k I'm guessing it Happens sometime this month is my guess Is that because again normally September Is not really a great month for Bitcoin You know the average return in September For all prior prehabbing years is like Negative 20 Um so I just I don't really think September is the best month for Bitcoin I don't think I think I do think the Yearly high is end so I do think that The yearly high is in for Bitcoin again In 2019 we saw sort of this yearly High Come in about halfway through the year So I think we're likely just looking at More or less the same thing so next Realistic price target for Bitcoin Potentially in the next month is twenty Three thousand dollars what's your worst Case scenario or When the FED has to Pivot when maybe Those other markets crash what do you See Yeah so here's a cool chart this chart You know I think we so we talked about The Socialists before there's also the Price risk and the on-chain risk and if You combine all three of them into a Summary risk you get a chart that looks

Like this and the thing that I I note Here is that every prior pre having year So in 2019 in 2015 and 2011 we saw this Total indicator risk go to that 0 to 0.1 Wristband right and it looks like we're In the process of heading there now Okay So I I think that we do likely see Bitcoin Fade back down you know whether it ends Up being a high or low a double bottom Or lower low obviously is going to be up For interpretation if you were to ask me What is like my worst case scenario for Bitcoin it is possible for us to put in A new low I know that is not what we've Historically seen last cycle it was a Higher low cycle before that it was a Double bottom right so there's not Really a lot of history to show that Bitcoin puts in a lower low so I don't Really want to say that it has to happen But worst case scenario right of course Is a lower low and there is at least Some evidence to suggest that that's a Possibility uh one of the charts that You might look at as as reason to Suggest that is if you were to look at Like the balance price of Bitcoin Um historically Bitcoin finds a finds Daily closes below the balance price Every cycle right so you can see we Found daily closes below the balance Price in the prehabbing year of 2011. You can see that we found daily closes

Below the balance price and the Prehabbing year of 2015. and you can see That we found daily closes below the Balance price in December of 2018 just Before the prehabbing year and we came Close to it again in in early 2020. so Far while we have come close to going Below the balance price we have and we Have we actually did go below it on a Wick we have not seen any daily closes Below the balance price and the balance Price currently sits at 14.7 K so in Order to sort of check that off the off The list of things that need to happen Um that you know that would sort of be a Worst case scenario is a close just Below you know the prior lows again this Is what I would consider to be a worst Case scenario what's interesting about That though Is the prior the 2019 high was just Below 14k so I I sort of think that that Might be a worst case scenario Target is Somewhere in this range right somewhere Over here in this range as a absolute Worst case scenario and the way that it Could happen is if is If the Fed just Stays higher for longer right like if Inflation doesn't come down as quickly As they want which it probably won't Watching oil rally today and and you Know continuing to move higher if price If if inflation does not come down as Quick as they wanted to they're going to

Be forced to go higher for longer in Terms of interest rates and and to Continue on with their QT so as long as That's the case then this does become You know a potential a potential viable Outcome but I don't think you know I Don't think anyone should go into this Saying like this has to happen it's more So just a worst case scenario In the year 2023 have you bought any Dips Benjamin or do you are you still All in cash in 2023 The only thing I bought is at least in Terms of crypto is Bitcoin I mean I I Bought some at the end of 2022 some I Think at the very beginning of 2023 Um but it wasn't like a huge position Right I I've nibbled at it here and There especially as we were in some of The lower wristbands Um if you were to you know just sort of Go back to that chart right if you were To look at the total indicator risk for Bitcoin there's actually a cooler way to Look at it here Um and that's to color code it right so If you color code this chart and you Isolate just the the lowest wristbands Right so this is the zero to zero to Point two wristbands this shows you if You would follow the strategy over the Long haul it would have worked out quite Well right I mean you could you still Could have seen 50 drops here and there

It would have worked out quite well but What's also interesting you can Highlight the Peaks With a zero point or the 0.8 to 1 Wristband if you take away the point one To point two wristband you can see that We actually haven't hit it yet this Cycle right but we've hit it all prior Prehabbing years right 2011 2015 and 2019 we've hit it so I the only thing I've really bought really since the end Of 2021 is is Bitcoin and I I just DCA It periodically when the risk levels are Low I haven't bought any altcoins Um oh I think your viewers are probably Well aware of that I haven't bought any All coins I I generally think they're You know they're just going to continue To bleed against Bitcoin and and so I'm Looking I'm looking towards you know on The potentially the closer to a Fed Pivot to get into the altcoin market By the way for the audience uh if Anybody wants access to these charts I Will put an affiliate link down below And Benjamin to flip on the other side Of Um of this narrative Once Bitcoin does bottom how long do you See until Bitcoin can reach a new All-time high That's a good question I mean history Would show I mean history would say There's a good chance it'll happen

Either late having year or sometime in The post-hopping year uh last cycle it Actually occurred in the having year Right we saw Bitcoin sort of go Parabolic and take out 20K at the end of 2020. uh it also came on the back of a Ton of money printing the cycle before That it actually took until the post Having year to put in new highs right Like if you're like a 2013's Peak we Didn't actually take that out until About halfway through 2017. so you know I I think if Bitcoin is going to take Out these highs which I think it will Eventually do uh I think the earliest That happens is is my guess 2025 I mean It could happen at the end of 2024 if They just aggressively print again so I Don't want to rule that scenario out Especially since it happened last cycle But considering that inflation is more Of a an issue this cycle than it was Last cycle I doubt they're going to do That so my guess is the earliest that it Happens would be sometime in in 2025. And are there any charts that you have That fundamentally can give us a clue to Like oh maybe it'll top at this range Based on this or this Yeah I mean you know there's other There's other risk metrics as well so I I would say currently If I were to go to to the sort of just The Bitcoin the Bitcoin risk

Um that's just based on the price I Would be looking for that one to go in The in the highest sort of in that Highest wristband Um and and I I mean I think right now It's it's not it's not over six figures But it it certainly could get there Assuming we get some type of a of a bull Run Um I I think it's important to recognize That there are there there is this Aspect and there has been this aspect of Diminishing returns right so like you Know three Cycles ago we saw Bitcoin go Up You know thousands you know like Hundreds of of X right like 600 700x It's like after that I went up 500x the Second after that it went up 100x from The bottom uh last cycle it went up you Know like 20 some odd X from the bottom So it probably depends on where the Bottom is I mean if the Bottom's already In then yeah I mean maybe maybe we go Slightly above the prior highs maybe 100K is in the cards if if the Bottom's Not already in then it could be it could Be somewhat temperate I don't I don't Think that we're going to 300K right Like I know those predictions have Already started to come back out again Uh just like they did last cycle I do Think Bitcoin will eventually go that High but I don't think it's going to go

To 300K uh this coming cycle because if It were to go to 300K then you're Essentially you know people are starting To sort of not look at this diminishing Returns aspect of it again Um I mean again like from the prior High Last cycle we only went up what 3x During the prior high from like 20K to 60k 60k to to 300K would be a 5x move from From Peak to Peak so I I think that's a Bit a bit of a stretch so it's probably Probably not going to be uh that close To to those levels but I I think it's Realistic to to look at some of those Um you know slightly higher levels than The prior highs maybe we hit six figures Next cycle uh we'll just we'll take it One step at a time there's also I think There's one other chart that that might That might be a worthwhile just just While I'm thinking about it uh looking At at The terminal price because we looked at The balance price earlier uh for for Cycle lows right so this was the one we Looked at for cycle lows there's also One called the terminal price which is Sort of look used to look at at Peaks so That one that one's currently at 117k And you kind of see that it historically Has come back up to the terminal price Before ultimately fading back down so Again you know you you might see it

Break those those six figure levels but I don't think it's going to go up to 300K like like many might might hope Then in a few months I'm gonna have you Back on we're going to revisit some of These charts maybe closer uh to that fed Pivot Um but either way thank you so much Links for your stuff are down below Final thoughts for the altcoin daily Army Yeah maybe maybe final thoughts are just Um you know uh time basic capitulation Is a thing you know and and I think the Hard part is just staying at it I Watched uh all coin daily Brothers stay On it all throughout 2018 and 2019 and 2020 you know when it wasn't the cool Thing to do but eventually eventually You know all the hard work paid off so Again if you are if you are on that Point of time-based capitulation just Know that we've been here before and and Yeah things could get worse before they Get better but history shows that the FED will eventually pivot and when they Pivot it's the riskiest assets like Cryptocurrencies that tend to do the Best Okay