Have You SEEN This?! Euro CBDC is Around the Corner!!

As faith in the current financial system Continues to fall governments around the World are rushing to roll out their Central bank digital currencies or Cbdc’s before their physical fiat Currencies collapse The european central bank or ecb has Been leading the charge in this regard And it recently published a working Paper about its upcoming digital euro Which sheds light on what cbdc’s will Look like Today i’m going to summarize what the Ecb working paper says in simple terms And tell you why cbdc’s will be both Bullish and bearish for cryptocurrencies The working paper i’ll be summarizing Today is titled quote the economics of a Central bank digital currency it was Published by the ecb earlier this month And i’ll leave a link to the full Document in the description if you’re Interested Now if the title didn’t give it away the Abstract reiterates that quote this Paper provides a structured overview of The burgeoning literature on the Economics of cbdc Those of you who’ve been keeping up with Our videos about cbdc’s will know that The economics of them has been the Trickiest part of rolling them out as it Would likely bankrupt commercial banks And make it extremely expensive to

Borrow among other things This is something that is tacitly Acknowledged in the abstract of this Paper along with the privacy and user Preference risks an understatement given That users will have no privacy and no Control over their money in a cbdc System Next the authors provide a non-technical Summary of the paper which may sound Like something that’s redundant to read But it’s always worth going over when Analyzing these reports as sometimes the Authors will mention something very Important in the summary that isn’t Evident in the main text In this case the authors highlight the Fact that over 90 percent of central Banks around the world are working on a Cbdc and claim that the interest in Cbdc’s is due to the decline in cash Payments good joke and the rise of Unspecified digital currencies which is Presumably cryptocurrencies and not a Joke i say presumably because the Authors specify that these digital Currencies quote pose significant Challenges to the status quo of the Current financial system which is Another understatement given that the Implicit and explicit purpose of Cryptocurrency is to replace the Existing financial system The authors also touch on another major

Motivation for the rollout of cbdc’s and That’s the possibility that a private Company like meta google or apple could Roll out their own digital currency that Could quickly grow large enough to Challenge the euro consistent with Rhetoric from other central banks The authors then explicitly state that They would like the ecb’s upcoming Digital euro to completely replace cash And some of you may recall that my Personal conspiracy theory is that Runaway inflation is really a good way To convince the average person to give Up their physical bills and adopt a cbdc At the end of the non-technical summary The authors stress that everything That’s about to be discussed is in the Context of a so-called retail cbdc which Will be used by regular folks like you And me and not a so-called wholesale Cbdc which will be used by select Individuals and financial institutions That’s right the people in power will Have their own digital currency system Which i’m sure will be subject to the Same programmable rules and lack of Privacy as the digital currency system They’re looking to impose on the rest of Us Don’t get too excited yet though we Haven’t even gotten to the actual Working paper So the first part of the paper provides

A bit of background about digital Payments and there are a few things that Stuck out to me here The first is that the authors Immediately identify the three things Central banks are afraid of which are Again fintech companies big tech Companies and cryptocurrencies Central banks are afraid of these Entities because they’re quite literally Disrupting the existing financial system As far as the central banks are Concerned the only solution is a central Bank digital currency which the authors Note would result in quote abrupt and Potentially irreversible changes to the Financial system The authors again point to meta’s now Failed digital currency dubbed dm Formerly known as libra as the watershed Moment for central banks around the World now we actually did a video about Dm back in the day and it’s definitely Worth watching if you have the time Especially since some of dm’s developers Are now in the process of creating a Crypto project the link will be in the Description The authors then detail the three things The working paper will focus on the Economics of cbdc’s the implications Cbdcs would have on the financial system And of course the challenges associated With a cbdc rollout

I can’t help but be reminded of a Sentence from one of the first cbdc Reports we covered from the bank for International settlements or bis which Bluntly stated that quote There might be some measures that may Face obstacles to public understanding And acceptance when it comes to cbdc’s i Digress The authors end the introduction by Reiterating that the paper does not Concern a wholesale cbdc because it Would quote entail a less significant Change to the status quo of the Financial system Take a second to consider that the Status quo of the financial system Includes central banks printing money Into the accounts of big banks and asset Managers many of which have been caught Laundering billions of dollars while Regulators crack down on regular people With strict kyc and aml The authors also note that quote our Paper largely steers clear of the topics Of cryptocurrencies and decentralized Finance probably because an educated Reader would look at this technology and Think wow this is so much better than The cbdc Anyways the second part of the paper Explores the quote digitization in Business and payments and it covers all The factors that have given rise to

Cbdc’s The first factor is the gradual shift of Economic productivity from the physical To the digital meaning that more and More money is being made by goods and Services that are available partially if Not wholly online The authors note google amazon and Facebook as easy examples here The authors point out that this rapidly Growing digital economy creates serious Centralization issues wherein the first Adopters of the technology required to Compete in this economy become larger And more monopolistic eventually making It impossible for new companies to enter The ring The authors highlight data as a core Component of this first mover advantage Companies that have been around for Longer have a lot more data about user And consumer behavior and this gives Them an edge that new companies will Take years to get if ever If i’m not mistaken this is the Rationale behind the digital markets act That was recently passed by the european Union as it focuses on data sharing and Transparency by big tech including with New competitors in the industries they Currently dominate As a fun fact the european union passed Another bill called the digital services Act alongside the digital markets act

Which will effectively see the Establishment of various ministries of Truth in european countries that will Decide what’s true and what’s false Online More about that in the description Now the second factor that has given Rise to cbdc’s is twofold and the first Fold is the gradual decline in cash Payments which the authors admit isn’t Occurring to nearly the same degree in All european countries The second fold is more significant and That’s the rapid rise in companies Providing more efficient digital payment Platforms aka fintechs which are often Just fancier front ends for the existing Financial system This second fold also includes Cryptocurrencies and here the authors Say that btc is a bad currency because It’s too volatile and that stable coins Don’t work because terror collapsed That is obviously one hell of a straw Man argument because terra’s ust is Nothing like circles usdc or tethers Usdt The authors add that quote the full Decentralization of cryptocurrencies Comes at the cost of limited scalability And an excessive environmental footprint For consensus mechanisms such as proof Of work Besides the fact that cryptocurrencies

Can scale with layer 2 solutions such as The lightning network the claim that Proof of work has a quote excessive Environmental footprint is factually Incorrect because crypto mining accounts For just a fraction of a percentage of Global carbon emissions and energy use You can get the facts about that using The link in the description Naturally the only solution to the Alleged shortcomings of cryptocurrency Is a permissioned i.e centrally Controlled distributed ledger that’s Operated by the government and the Central bank This ties into the third part of the Paper and that’s the reasons why central Banks want to roll out their dystopian Digital currencies the first reason is One that all central banks love to throw Around and that’s that central bank Money is the safest form of money the Authors then claim that quote as the use Of cash is declining the promise of Convertibility at par becomes less and Less meaningful call me crazy but this Sounds like a justification for the one Percent reserve requirement that Commercial banks have in the eurozone As you might have guessed this basically Means that european banks only need to Keep one percent of all their customers Money in cash a recipe for disaster as Winter approaches no doubt

The second reason why central banks want Cbdc’s is one that’s been mentioned a Couple of times already and that’s Monetary sovereignty a cbdc would make It possible for governments to prevent Foreign currencies from competing with Their national currencies If you’re wondering why governments and Central banks don’t like this currency Competition it’s because it would Fundamentally force them to act more Responsibly with their spending and Printing which most governments and Central banks don’t want to do because It benefits them and their friends As such just about every country would Quickly see its national currency Replaced by some foreign currency likely The us dollar in the form of stable Coins like usdt and usdc given that this Is slowly but surely starting to happen In countries that are experiencing the Most inflation The third reason why central banks want Cbdc’s is laughable and that’s for Privacy protection what’s especially Funny is that the authors pose the Question Why do people want privacy in payments Not surprisingly the first answer they Give is for illicit activity the second Answer to why people want privacy and Payments is to protect themselves from Corporations who want to use their data

Or as the authors call them quote Monopolists Believe it or not but there was Absolutely no mention about people Wanting privacy and payments to say Donate to a political party or support Protesters or buy things that Governments don’t like such as firearms Cryptocurrency and apparently also red Meat What’s also not surprising is that the Authors conclude that the private sector Cannot provide any privacy guarantees Which logically means that the public Sector is the only one that can in this Case the central bank and the government What the authors don’t say is something That’s been said in many other cbdc Papers and that’s that privacy would not Be possible with a cbdc for this very Reason Now the fourth reason why central banks Want cbdc’s is the real reason in my Opinion and that’s to quote address Market imperfections In other words control the economy so That everything is perfect according to The criteria of the people in power that Is Obviously the authors don’t say this Directly instead they throw around words Many in the crypto community are Familiar with such as faster payments And financial inclusion which even the

Authors admit a little later on aren’t Issues in the eurozone The authors also mentioned that a cbdc Could be used to address unspecified Quote moral hazards in the economy which Almost certainly includes political Donations purchasing cryptocurrency and All that other stuff i mentioned a few Moments ago Then the authors start to tread closer Towards the real reason why central Banks want cbdc’s quote A cbdc introduction may allow Governments to improve their control Over payment infrastructures Moreover quote a cbdc may provide a more Efficient channel for governments to Disperse fiscal transfers directly to Citizens and quote Additional features such as Programmability may enhance the Efficiency of fiscal policy for example Through transfers with an expiry date Those last two points are particularly Concerning because some cbdc papers have Mentioned that requiring cbdcs to pay For taxes or receive emergency aid During a crisis are two ways that Governments could force their citizens To adopt said cbdc’s As for the programmability this relates To the explicit plans central banks have To set limits on how much you can buy Where you can buy it when you can buy it

And even how much you can save using a Cbdc What’s scary is that cbdcs are just one Component of the future of the financial System that central banks envision and You can find out what else they want Using the link in the description Anyhow the fourth part of the paper Pertains to how cbdc’s would impact Monetary policy which some of you will Know is everything the central bank does Namely raising and lowering interest Rates and creating money out of thin air For the government the commercial banks And their buddies The authors start by going over some Research that suggests commercial banks Could get squeezed by a cbdc This is partially because there wouldn’t Really be a need for them and partially Because most people would opt to keep Their cbdc holdings directly at the Central bank for safety reasons The authors seem to suggest that a Solution would be to just have Commercial banks compete by raising Interest rates offered on cbdc deposits The question is where these interest Rates would come from and the answer Isn’t all that obvious Perhaps pure programmability by the Central bank i.e printing Now another element the authors examine Is the effect cbdc’s would have on bank

Capital which is quite honestly above my Pay grade For what it’s worth the authors note That quote the effect of cbdc on banks Profit retention decisions is ambiguous Which suggests that their analysis Wasn’t conclusive Next the authors assess the actual use Of cbdc’s to modify monetary policy Which the authors claim is quote not the Main focus of central banks looking to Roll out cbdcs That’s because most central banks want Cbdc’s to act like digital cash as we’ve Established however the ecb does want to Use its digital euro to modify monetary Policy and also wants it to replace Physical cash as far as i can tell this Is the case with most other central Banks as well actions speak louder than Words after all Now the authors make this clear in the Next paragraph where they note that the Ecb would love to use a cbdc to create Negative interest rates and i’ll note That this is not the same as the Negative interest rates the ecb had Until very recently whereas negative Interest rates with regular currency Effectively pay you to borrow negative Interest rates with a cbdc means any Currency you don’t spend would be slowly But surely destroyed thereby giving the Central bank an uncanny amount of

Control over the economy The authors admit that negative interest Rates with a cbdc would quote require Phasing out bank notes to prevent cash Hoarding when interest rates on digital Currency become negative hence why i Believe there’s a very real possibility That all the fiat inflation we’re seeing Could be intentional The authors also admit that quote a cbdc Carrying a negative interest rate might Face adoption obstacles as users would Perceive cash as a less costly means of Payment After discussing the possibility of Creating different interest rates for Different amounts of cbdc holdings the Authors even admit that quote such a Scheme however would be difficult to Explain to the public and might impede Adoption as well as usability of cbdc For the average consumer in particular In the presence of alternative private Digital means of payment And this ladies and gents is exactly why Every country that’s rolling out of cbdc Is cracking down on cryptocurrency in Addition to killing cash they must make Sure there is no other kind of currency Otherwise their cbdc’s will not work and Forcing them will accelerate the Adoption of alternatives The authors then touch on something Absolutely terrifying and that’s a study

Which quote shows that the central bank Can separately target the store of value And the means of exchange function of Money by steering the supply of cbdc Does this mean they’re going to go after Precious metals too You tell me Now the next paragraph contains an even More disturbing sentence and that’s Quote amongst the key choices central Banks will need to decide who should be Able to use cbdc whether and how it Would be remunerated and whether its use Would be subject to holding or Transaction limits besides the prospect Of putting limits on cbdc holdings and Transactions what makes this sentence so Disturbing is that the authors cite Rafael auer a member of the bank for International settlements who has Written extensively about how central Banks should take total control of the Financial system we actually summarized One of his reports about regulatory Compliance in defy and you can find out What he proposes using the link in the Description be warned you aren’t going To like it Now thankfully even the authors know That raphael’s ideas are outlandish as They proceed to list all the problems That would be associated with putting Limits on cbdc holdings and transactions Such as the issue of ensuring these

Limits are appropriate for the Individuals and institutions in question The authors sum it up with quote overall It can be concluded that although Safeguards allow the central bank to Better control the amount of cbdc in Circulation they also give rise to Wedges that increase the liquidity Premium on cbdc and therefore limit the Associated welfare gains The final section in this part is Specifically about the quote Implications for monetary policy Implementation and what the authors say Here is pretty interesting in short the Introduction of a cbdc would cause some Percentage of money to flow out of Commercial banks into the central bank In some cases this would require the Central bank to issue loans to Commercial banks to ensure they have Enough deposits on hand to continue Their operations the problem with this Is that it would therefore mean that the Loan being issued to the commercial bank By the central bank would be the same as A cbdc which isn’t true because the loan Isn’t really a real asset so to speak as Such quote the central bank may have to Take on private assets in its portfolio Put simply a cbdc could force a central Bank to start buying stocks and other Assets and give them to commercial banks So they stay solvent in the event of

Excessive withdrawals due to cbdc demand Mind-blowing but not surprising wall Street needs to get its cut from this Ponzi scheme after all Now the central bankers seem to be fine With this setup as a study the author’s Site says quote to the extent that a Cbdc increases the usefulness of central Bank money and draws demand away from Private monetary assets it has the Potential to increase the central bank’s Control over monetary policy and its Ability to reap seniority anything in The name of control The silver lining is that the central Bank’s ability to control the economy Through a cbdc would be dependent on its Adoption which could again be negatively Impacted by the presence of competing Cbdc’s cash and cryptocurrencies That said there seems to be some room For symbiosis as the authors suggest That centralized stable coins could be Backed by cbdc’s This could potentially be bullish for Smart contract cryptocurrencies as they Are the rails that stable coins run on But i’d rather not see this outcome and I don’t think governments would like to See this outcome either at least in the United states That’s because most of the stable coins In circulation are backed by u.s Government debt and you can learn more

About how stable coins are backed using The link in the description Anywho the fifth part of the paper talks About the implications a cbdc would have On financial stability something that’s Already been touched on to a limited Extent The authors begin by throwing shade at Commercial banks with sentences such as Quote banks raise funds in the form of Demandable deposits and invest them in Illiquid and risky assets To be fair the authors mentioned this in The context of bank runs which can occur When everyone tries to cash out and the Bank is forced to liquidate the assets On its balance sheet Depending on the assets in question the Liquidation may not be enough to cover The cash that people want to withdraw As i mentioned earlier there is a Concern that a cbdc would increase the Risk of bank runs as during a time of Crisis everyone would rush to convert Their cash into a cbdc or so the central Bankers say After going over a few simulations of All the different conditions in which a Bank run would occur because of a cbdc The authors turn to another financial Stability issue caused by cbdc’s and That’s that banks might start loading Their balance sheets with more volatile Sources of funding to stay afloat in the

Absence of sufficient consumer deposits Rather than scrap the cbdc and avoid all The issues discussed so far the authors Proposed that central banks put limits On how much cbdc an individual or Institution could hold and revealed that The ecb is actively examining the Possibility of such setups The authors continue building on the Idea that the introduction of a cbdc Would inspire commercial banks to Increase risk taking to maintain their Profitability the authors again suggest Modifying the cbdc such that it would Incentivize commercial banks to lend More thereby increasing their Profitability while decreasing risk Taking At the end of this part the authors Discuss how a cbdc could impact Financial stability policies imposed by Other central banks and other regulators What’s interesting is that while a cbdc Would make it easier to implement Financial stability policy due to the Rich data that regulators would be able To gather this data might not be of high Quality if say limits on cbdc holdings And transfers are imposed the devil’s Dilemma if you will Now the sixth part of the paper concerns The policy around and adoption of cbdc’s Including how central banks intend on Convincing you and me to use their

Dystopian digital currencies The authors commence by commending the Bahamas and nigeria for being the first Two countries to roll out their Respective central bank digital Currencies while acknowledging that a Cbdc might not be appropriate for every Country or region the authors then make A bold claim and that’s quote there is No regulatory alternative that promises To eliminate the threat to the two-layer Monetary system Since cash is only available in physical Form it is by construction not fit for The digital age that’s some radical Rhetoric right there And then the authors say the quiet part Out loud Quote the introduction of digital cash In the form of a cbdc appears to be the Only solution to guarantee a smooth Continuation of the current monetary System an admission so significant that It made the crypto headlines And because cryptocurrency provides an Alternative to the current monetary System the central banks are trying to Preserve the authors advise that quote Public policy must act decisively and in A forward-looking manner meaning they Must crack down before crypto adoption Takes off These concerns around crypto adoption Center on stable coins which the authors

Again note as not being feasible Alternatives due to terror’s implosion Which is again not representative of the Stablecoin niche nor does it account for All the innovations that are yet to come The authors highlight europe’s markets In crypto assets or mica bill as being An example of decisive action on the Part of policymakers given that it sets Limits on stablecoin issuance and use In case you missed the memo the mica Bill was recently passed and should Become law in the next one to two years Across european countries you can find Out what other crypto clauses it Contains using the link in the Description The authors then highlight the upcoming Stablecoin bill in the united states That’s expected to be presented in September and acknowledge usdc issuer Circles intentions to obtain a banking License in the united states which Suggests that usdc could be safe from Regulatory scrutiny the authors also Touch on something significant and That’s that the up-and-coming fast Payment systems such as the federal Reserve’s fed now service could be a Suitable alternative to a cbdc I’ll quickly note that fast payment Systems could come with the same Dystopian qualities as a cbdc when Paired with a digital id as per the bank

For international settlements own Analysis In terms of adoption the authors reveal That central banks appear to be Terrified of the idea that their cbdc’s Could be dubbed a failure by the public Due to a lack of adoption never mind the Fact that without adoption they wouldn’t Be able to exercise the control of the Economy they’re actively seeking The authors float the possibility of Convincing merchants to offer discounts On purchases made with cbdc’s that would Presumably be subsidised by the central Bank On the consumer side the authors discuss Payment trends including a propensity to Use the cheapest payment methods Available and a preference for one-stop Shop payment solutions such as mobile Apps the authors then pivot to privacy And incorrectly state that quote Die-hard fans of cryptocurrencies view The ability to transact in full Anonymity in the digital world as key Feature I say incorrectly because most Cryptocurrency blockchains are Completely transparent meaning you can See everything Moreover what makes crypto fans die hard Is the realization that crypto makes it Possible to transact without the kinds Of restrictions that central banks are

Shamelessly trying to impose with their Cbdc’s This is of no concern to the authors as It’s clear they wanted to get this point Across quote Survey evidence suggests that consumers Are aware of privacy issues but do not Consider them as primary concerns i Wonder which central bank conducted that Study Now the authors go on to explain that Bundling cbdc’s with other financial Services might be another way to Encourage adoption before returning to The topic of how a cbdc rollout could Affect the reputation of its respective Central bank The authors admit that quote the central Bank’s reputation with the public is key To successfully achieving its primary Objective of price stability and point To the possibility of a hack or cyber Attack as being the biggest risk to the Bank’s reputation in the context of a Cbdc make no mistake governments around The world will be actively trying to Destroy each other’s cbdc’s especially If they’re enemies this is why some Countries such as the united states are Taking it slow on the cbdc front they Want to make sure they have quantum Computer resistance and all that fun Stuff What’s fascinating is that the authors

Cite a 1985 study which found that quote If central banks come under increased Political pressure and adopt the Preferences of the general public they Implement policies that lead to Excessive inflation this is relevant to Cbdc’s because the central bank’s Control of things like interest rates is Expected to cause the average person to Pay more attention to monetary policy Which could translate to intense Political pressure to make the central Bank create more cbdc’s than it should For whatever reason The authors seem to suggest that this Same effect could happen in reverse with The average person putting pressure on Politicians to convince the central bank To raise interest rates so that their Cbdc savings increase in value a truly Fascinating thought experiment Naturally politicians are not exempt From these dynamics and the author’s Caution that politicians could be Incentivized to pressure the central Bank to use its cbdc powers to pursue an Ideological agenda The authors say that this would never Happen in europe because the ecb is Independent i guess they forgot that the Ecb is closely aligned with the world Economic forum and its ongoing great Reset agenda more about that in the Description

This brings me to the final part of the Paper and that’s the conclusion where The authors point out that privacy is a Quote complex issue that needs to be Addressed though they note in the very Next sentence that it’s not optimal Because data sharing should happen in Addition to kyc and aml The authors also claim that the issues Cbdc’s create for commercial banks could Be averted with the methods i mentioned Earlier namely modifying the cbdc and Making it possible for the central bank To purchase assets to give to the Commercial banks to cover the missing Consumer deposits wild stuff What’s truly wild is that the authors Insist that a cbdc will work due to all The theoretical models they discussed That were put together by academics most Of whom have probably never worked a Real job in their life and have an Economic incentive to publish the kind Of results central banks want to see The authors end the paper by explaining That a successful cbdc rollout comes Down to balance too much cbdc adoption And the financial system will face Issues due to too much centralized Control too little cbdc adoption and the Financial system will face issues due to A lack of centralized control Now it should be clear by this point why What was discussed in this paper is both

Bearish and bullish for cryptocurrency It’s bearish because central banks need To ensure their cbdc’s have no Competition for a successful rollout and Cryptocurrency is arguably the top Competitor Even if cryptocurrency is not a Competitor it is a viable alternative That the average person could flee to in The event that cbdc’s go full dystopian And this is an option that almost every Government doesn’t want its citizens to Have At the same time however a cbdc rollout Is bullish for cryptocurrencies Precisely because they are the Alternative and there’s only so much Governments can do to stop them because All you need to access them is an Internet connection Not all cryptocurrencies are created Equal however some namely smaller Cryptocurrencies that use a Proof-of-stake consensus mechanism could Quickly succumb to government and Central bank pressure that’s being Exercised by their friends in finance be It blackrock or otherwise This risk is especially relevant to Centralized stable coins like circles Usdc which some of you all know is being Supported by blackrock itself That’s why other cryptocurrencies namely Bitcoins btc could stand to gain on a

Cbdc rollout especially if governments Start going after other stores of value That are easier to confiscate such as Gold The only issue with btc is its Transparency which could be solved with Privacy solutions in the future at the Layer 1 or layer 2 level In the interim cbdc rollouts could end Up being bullish for privacy coins Now it’s important to note that all of This assumes that central banks will Succeed in rolling out their cbdc’s and That’s certainly not guaranteed in fact I find it even more likely that they Will fail especially since nobody except Select politicians and central bankers Are fans of their problematic properties Be it transaction limits or otherwise Nobody will voluntarily adopt this Technology and that means governments And central banks will have to find some Way of making cbdc’s the only option a Combination of hyperinflation and Successive crises could be the secret But they’d never stoop that low to get Their way would they And that’s all for today’s video about The ecb’s cbdc working paper if you Found it as insane as i did smash that Like button if you want to make sure you Don’t miss my next summary subscribe to The channel and ping that notification Bell

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